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Kagrenak
Sep 8, 2010

Mid-Life Crisis posted:

Wonder when American pharma companies release their own GLP-1s that all this negative press goes away. A lot of jealously money is flowing straight to Denmark.

Lily already has a GLP-1 analog on the market (dulaglutide) and a GLP-1/GIP dual agonist (tirzepatide) that shows some promise of even better metabolic health improvements over semaglutide.

No one writing these fluff pieces cares about where pharma $ are going.

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MadDogMike
Apr 9, 2008

Cute but fanged

cr0y posted:

He will never do another debate, he has nothing to possibly gain. No one who is on the fence, if such a mythical being even exists anymore, is gonna see him poo poo out of his mouth for 90 minutes and be like "yup that decides it, he got my vote".

On the other hand, I could see the Democrats making hay out of Trump being “too cowardly” to debate and maybe piss him off into one. I doubt it’d be worth much since Trump would just go into a narcissistic tantrum, of course.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
The FCC announced plans to ban early termination fees from contracts.

In addition, the rule requires:

- Cable and satellite providers to provide a pro-rated refund of the remaining contract cost when a customer cancels their contract early.
- Cable and satellite providers must provide an "all-in" pricing model that advertises the final price a customer would pay for the package, including taxes and fees.

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1727345114526175639

quote:

Biden proposes ban on cable cord-cutting fees

WASHINGTON — The Federal Communications Commission on Tuesday announced a rule proposal to ban early termination fees for cable and satellite service contracts.

The proposed rule would require cable operators and direct broadcast satellite, or DBS, providers to eliminate early cancellation fees. It would also require cable and DBS companies to provide customers a prorated credit or rebate for the remaining days within a billing cycle after cancellation, according to an FCC release.

“No one wants to pay junk fees for something they don’t want or can’t use,” FCC Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel said in a statement. “When companies charge customers early termination fees, it limits their freedom to choose the service they want.”

The proposed rule is part of the White House’s larger focus on eliminating surplus fees under President Joe Biden’s July 2021 executive order to promote competition in the U.S. economy.

According to that order, cable television is one sector where fees can stifle competition, due to costs associated with canceling services or switching service providers.

“Companies shouldn’t lock you into services you don’t want with large fees,” President Joe Biden said via X on Tuesday. “It’s unfair, raises costs, and stifles competition. We’re doing something about it.”

The FCC had previously announced it would implement Broadband Consumer Labels — easily accessible information for consumers about the functions and costs of a broadband service, similar to a food nutrition label. The agency has also proposed “all-in” pricing for cable and satellite services, so that customers will see the total service costs, fees included, up front.

“In an increasingly competitive media market, we should make it easier for Americans to use their purchasing power to promote innovation and expand competition within the industry,” Rosenworcel said.

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

The Top G posted:

the democrat bench
The idea of "benches" is fake. (Nice choice of adjective, btw.) The 2016 GOP had a bunch of candidates with gigantic national profiles and they all got torn to bits by a guy nobody even knew was going to be running a year earlier. Bill Clinton was a total unknown until he entered the '92 race extremely late. (To be fair, there was probably some kind of Faustian bargain in that case.)

Ms Adequate posted:

There are a few Dems who I think would have a shot but they're not nationally placed for it currently, and as you say not being groomed for it. I'd rate Whitmer as likely their best current emergency option, Jon Tester might not be the worst choice either. (Not saying he's got great positions, but just that I could see him mounting a decent race. I guess there's some buzz around Josh Shapiro but I am not familiar enough to assess if he's got legs.
There are probably a hundred Dems who would "have a shot." No, there aren't too many famous Dems right now where you'd say, "Hey, there's a president!" But you know what makes you a lot more famous? Being a top candidate for president! They're not exciting and the press doesn't talk about them, but even boring governors like Ned Lamont and Phil Murphy would do fine as presidential candidates. Besides Trump, a party base has only been actually happy with exactly one non-incumbent presidential candidate in my lifetime, I'm not sure why everybody is expecting JFK 2: Jackie's Revenge to pop up out of nowhere every four years.

Culture is too fragmented for a candidate with that kind of broad appeal to even exist anymore; even the 2008 environment that allowed for Obamamania is starting to look pretty distant. (Let's also not forget that while he's remembered for his massive popularity in-office and even greater popularity in death, JFK beat Nixon by like 25 votes in 1960. Nixon!)

Whitmer, in particular, is an incredibly strong candidate. There's nothing about her that isn't "placed" to run for president. She's the very popular governor of the 10th largest state, in her second term. She is the exact age voters want. She looks good on TV. She's been winning by 10+ in a state that had a completely Republican government within the last 10 years, and brought the legislature with her. It's pretty hard to imagine a stronger candidate. If she can't represent a solid "top of the bench," I'm not sure what people are expecting.

cr0y posted:

For the non gram havers

The rough thing is, the WH's social media team can do a cute self-aware stunt like "147 candles!" and then it gets repurposed into a meme that 500 times as many people see that says "BIDEN'S SO OLD, LOOK HOW MANY CANDLES! 😂😂😂"

In 1998, that cake joke would've been a cute little thirty second puff piece on the network nightly news. Now the only people who know about it are people who like Biden enough to follow his accounts in the first place.

radmonger posted:

If someone were to perform a comprehensive polling analysis on the topic, I would not be all that surprised if it proved that the median voter thought Biden was dangerously young and inexperienced, and they would really prefer someone say 10 years older.
Sadly, Jerry Brown (3 1/2 years older) is too young, and Jimmy Carter (not term-limited!), just a few years too old.

Main Paineframe posted:

There's only one person in the world who's ever beaten Trump in an election, and it sure as hell ain't Cory Booker.
I realize that 78-82 can be years of steep decline, but we haven't seen that, just a continuation of the same mumbly baseline. Even though Biden wasn't exactly dynamic and sharp in 2020, he won the primary explicitly because people thought he was the "most electable." Four years later they're all freaking out, not because of his performance but because they're afraid he's not electable. I dunno, like, maybe Joe Biden isn't the problem here.

Main Paineframe posted:

GOP Senate seats ... Florida?
That race is winnable as hell. You're talking about a +5-10 R state and an opponent who is less popular than other Republicans in the state, probably because he looks objectively terrifying, and made his fortune withholding healthcare from people, and says the quiet part so loud Mitch McConnell had to tell him to shut up. DeSantis is substantially less popular than he was before he won reelection, and now has loser stink on him, which can't be helpful to Scott and the GOP. The FL Dems could easily pick a terrible candidate, but I'd imagine the national party will be heavily involved trying to make sure there's a potential winning candidate in that primary.

cr0y posted:

He will never do another debate, he has nothing to possibly gain. No one who is on the fence, if such a mythical being even exists anymore, is gonna see him poo poo out of his mouth for 90 minutes and be like "yup that decides it, he got my vote".
He has nothing to gain from doing debates, and he's better off not doing them because he'd do them so badly, but it would benefit him if he could do them well (I mean, he arguably won the nom in 2016 because of debate performances). I think not doing them does hurt him with some small number of voters, just fewer than going out and acting like a jackass for 90 minutes does.

I actually think Trump would completely clean house in these GOP debates*, he's just not doing them because he doesn't have to, and he's lazy, and he probably thinks it's beneath him, a pseudo-incumbent. But for one on one debates, Biden pretty much cracked the "how to debate Trump" code in the third one last time, and it's "don't let him cut you off," with the end result of 45 minutes of Trump talking and 45 of him yelling over you. It makes for horrible television and makes people hate both of them more, but probably Trump a little extra. I'm okay with us skipping that. I do hope debates are back when Trump is gone.

(* He's not as good as he was seven years ago, but it's pretty much at the point where if somebody did some kind of logical jiujitsu that objectively made Trump look like a giant idiot who also hated America, he could just do something like say "Yeah, well you're gay!" and he'll have won the exchange.)

Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 17:12 on Nov 22, 2023

Mid-Life Crisis
Jun 13, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

Kagrenak posted:

Lily already has a GLP-1 analog on the market (dulaglutide) and a GLP-1/GIP dual agonist (tirzepatide) that shows some promise of even better metabolic health improvements over semaglutide.

No one writing these fluff pieces cares about where pharma $ are going.

Tirzepatide only just got approved, which aligns with a lot of these hit pieces on semaglutide that started cropping up. You can call it conspiracy; but pharma makes up 75% of the ad market, they own the news.

the_steve
Nov 9, 2005

We're always hiring!

MadDogMike posted:

On the other hand, I could see the Democrats making hay out of Trump being “too cowardly” to debate and maybe piss him off into one. I doubt it’d be worth much since Trump would just go into a narcissistic tantrum, of course.

If they were running anyone other than Biden, I could believe this, but they're not going to be much more eager to put their mushbrain up on stage than the Republicans will be with theirs.

I'm pretty confident that 2024 is going to be a whole lot of rallies and carefully scripted/edited videos instead of any actual debates.

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

the_steve posted:

If they were running anyone other than Biden, I could believe this, but they're not going to be much more eager to put their mushbrain up on stage than the Republicans will be with theirs.
Yeah, I don't think Biden is shaky enough in debates that they would keep him out of one preemptively, but they probably won't be terribly heartbroken that he won't be able to get out there.

That said, he would benefit from low expectations. Like, I think his whole campaign will. He doesn't look or sound great, and I'm pretty sure that sometimes I wouldn't be able to follow what he was saying if I had the average American understanding of the issues. But he's not the shambling incoherent corpse a lot of people see depicted on social media. Unsurprisingly, considering his age*, he seems to do better during the day than at night, so having a lot of daytime events should help him.

* e: To clarify, I don't mean this in a "early stages dementia" kind of way, although of course it can't be ruled out, I just mean that you are less good at stuff when you are tired, and old people get tired quicker, hence why they have dinner at 4:30 and poo poo. And it's worse for Biden because one thing he gets worse at is controlling/compensating for his stutter, making him come across even more addled. (I also think sometimes Biden phrases things weirdly [and always has] because he's kind of constantly doing the Porky Pig thing in his head where you try and fail to say a word a bunch of times and then substitute a roughly equivalent one you can manage, it's just that he does it almost instantly instead of taking like four seconds. But when "instantly" slows down to like, one second, you get those audible "Uhuhrurh..." type things before some words and sentences.)

the_steve posted:

I'm pretty confident that 2024 is going to be a whole lot of rallies and carefully scripted/edited videos instead of any actual debates.
Isn't that every campaign, though?

2020 was a super odd campaign; it'll be interesting to see to what extent things drift back to the pre-2016 paradigm, considering that the current model is kind of ideal for both candidates. (And then to see if there's any further bounceback once we have candidates who are below retirement age running.)

Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 17:41 on Nov 22, 2023

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

the_steve posted:

If they were running anyone other than Biden, I could believe this, but they're not going to be much more eager to put their mushbrain up on stage than the Republicans will be with theirs.

I'm pretty confident that 2024 is going to be a whole lot of rallies and carefully scripted/edited videos instead of any actual debates.

The whole "Biden can't take a stage or people will see the rapidly advancing dementia" line is literally four years old at this point, and it still remains perpetually around the corner like fusion. Even if it eventually becomes true, it won't be any kind of insight or factual observation so much as people just putting a bet down and spinning the wheel until their number comes up.

He's old, but by all indications he's just old, and like in 2019 the only people who care to hammer at it either wanted an even older guy or one that's barely younger and in visibly worse shape. It would hurt him in a theoretical race (primary or general) against someone actually young and vigorous, but it seens unlikely we're getting either of those.

Bodyholes
Jun 30, 2005

Most of the concern Dems have about Biden is whether he can win, not their own feelings about his presidency. I was way more disappointed with Obama in 2012--I think the midterms in 2010 vs 2022 reflect that. How was anyone else actually feeling before seeing the polls?

If we had a primary I'm concerned that it wouldn't actually give us a better candidate. Skipping the primary saves money for defeating Trump in the general. A primary is only worth it if Biden has become a toxic brand and we have someone much better in the wings and I don't really agree with either of those things.

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy
It's also important to remember that Biden is polling, like, two points behind where Obama was in 2012. I think the only reason it seems like such a harsh underperformance is because he's running against Trump, who, to normal people, has extreme negative appeal, so the thought that he could be tied or worse with him seems like a total failure. But it's pretty clear that, God help us, Trump is capable of bringing in a vast majority of reliable Republican votes, and is as much of a "valid" candidate as anyone else. (Indeed, more traditional candidates like Haley barely outpoll him against Biden, if at all.)

It's also important to remember that, outside of RWM consumers and the extremely online, almost nobody has any idea what's been going on with Trump. They might know that he's been indicted but not know that the cases are slam-dunk - and I think you would be surprised how many people didn't know anything about the indictments, or heard about them and quickly forgot.

It also seems like many people don't remember what Trump is actually like and are answering the question as if they were asked about a generic Republican.

Campaigns matter, and as much as we can tell ourselves over and over and over again as news and politics obsessives, we never truly understand the extent to which, for the majority of the country, the last thing that happened in politics was basically Biden clinching the GE.

The absolute only question about the campaign is how Biden will perform. If he goes out and just really looks and sounds like poo poo it'll complicate things. Otherwise, a full-fledged campaign and day-to-day coverage of candidate appearances can only help him. Trump's schtick has worked on literally every person it's ever going to work on, which thankfully seems to have been just barely few enough to keep the country from falling.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Killer robot posted:

The whole "Biden can't take a stage or people will see the rapidly advancing dementia" line is literally four years old at this point, and it still remains perpetually around the corner like fusion. Even if it eventually becomes true, it won't be any kind of insight or factual observation so much as people just putting a bet down and spinning the wheel until their number comes up.

He's old, but by all indications he's just old, and like in 2019 the only people who care to hammer at it either wanted an even older guy or one that's barely younger and in visibly worse shape. It would hurt him in a theoretical race (primary or general) against someone actually young and vigorous, but it seens unlikely we're getting either of those.

also trump does legit sound way way worse now, possibly because of decline but also because of stress and being on truth or whatever nazi sites he is on all day. like the old speeches were vaguely about kitchen table and and the wall. not its just "arrest my enemies" and "election rigged" and "shoot the immigrants" and etc. he is also slurring way more.


Bodyholes posted:

Most of the concern Dems have about Biden is whether he can win, not their own feelings about his presidency. I was way more disappointed with Obama in 2012--I think the midterms in 2010 vs 2022 reflect that. How was anyone else actually feeling before seeing the polls?

If we had a primary I'm concerned that it wouldn't actually give us a better candidate. Skipping the primary saves money for defeating Trump in the general. A primary is only worth it if Biden has become a toxic brand and we have someone much better in the wings and I don't really agree with either of those things.

I think a primary would just make poo poo worse at this point because the party heads dont like harris and she isnt popular enough to win either primary or probably general.

Misunderstood posted:

It's also important to remember that Biden is polling, like, two points behind where Obama was in 2012. I think the only reason it seems like such a harsh underperformance is because he's running against Trump, who, to normal people, has extreme negative appeal, so the thought that he could be tied or worse with him seems like a total failure. But it's pretty clear that, God help us, Trump is capable of bringing in a vast majority of reliable Republican votes, and is as much of a "valid" candidate as anyone else. (Indeed, more traditional candidates like Haley barely outpoll him against Biden, if at all.)

It's also important to remember that, outside of RWM consumers and the extremely online, almost nobody has any idea what's been going on with Trump. They might know that he's been indicted but not know that the cases are slam-dunk - and I think you would be surprised how many people didn't know anything about the indictments, or heard about them and quickly forgot.

It also seems like many people don't remember what Trump is actually like and are answering the question as if they were asked about a generic Republican.

Campaigns matter, and as much as we can tell ourselves over and over and over again as news and politics obsessives, we never truly understand the extent to which, for the majority of the country, the last thing that happened in politics was basically Biden clinching the GE.

The absolute only question about the campaign is how Biden will perform. If he goes out and just really looks and sounds like poo poo it'll complicate things. Otherwise, a full-fledged campaign and day-to-day coverage of candidate appearances can only help him. Trump's schtick has worked on literally every person it's ever going to work on, which thankfully seems to have been just barely few enough to keep the country from falling.

this. I think no one has seen how bad trumps gotten. my dad only knows because my uncle has gone full q and i keep him updated on stuff, and while he doesnt like biden(taxes/not having a firmer hand with russia) he will crawl over glass to vote against trump. and i think alot of others are like that too. but yeah, i think the dems go all out on the campaign and biden tends to be actually good with campaigning mostly.

Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 18:48 on Nov 22, 2023

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

Dapper_Swindler posted:

also trump does legit sound way way worse now, possibly because of decline but also because of stress and being on truth or whatever nazi sites he is on all day. like the old speeches were vaguely about kitchen table and and the wall. not its just "arrest my enemies" and "election rigged" and "shoot the immigrants" and etc. he is also slurring way more.
Yeah, and it's not just that the content has gotten worse - I mean, it's pretty clear the standards on the content were already pretty loose - his voice is going, too, which is going to make a much larger impact in how people see him (because people evaluate information and make decisions poorly.)

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

Dapper_Swindler posted:

I think a primary would just make poo poo worse at this point because the party heads dont like harris and she isnt popular enough to win either primary or probably general.

I think that if you just went, at the convention, "Oops, Biden has [non-brain related health condition], we need another candidate, let's just look over here... *scans everyone standing in a line where Kamala is raising her hand and jumping up and down and going "ooh! ooh! ooh!"* Yeah, hmm, Gretchen." then it would cause a lot of intraparty agita and some bad news cycles but ultimately people would get over it and by October it would just feel like a normal election.

One concern about unceremoniously ditching Harris is that it's thought (and I think they have internal polling on this) it would piss black women off quite a bit, and they are the base of the base.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Misunderstood posted:

Yeah, and it's not just that the content has gotten worse - I mean, it's pretty clear the standards on the content were already pretty loose - his voice is going, too, which is going to make a much larger impact in how people see him (because people evaluate information and make decisions poorly.)

I have said this before but shits not real until it is. its like with abortion, lots of people had complicated opinions about it until it was gone and now the GOP can't stop eating poo poo over it again and again and again. same with 2020 with trump or 2016 with clinton. again, i think its gonna be way closer then id like but i think biden wins more likely then not.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Misunderstood posted:

I think that if you just went, at the convention, "Oops, Biden has [non-brain related health condition], we need another candidate, let's just look over here... *scans everyone standing in a line where Kamala is raising her hand and jumping up and down and going "ooh! ooh! ooh!"* Yeah, hmm, Gretchen." then it would cause a lot of intraparty agita and some bad news cycles but ultimately people would get over it and by October it would just feel like a normal election.

One concern about unceremoniously ditching Harris is that it's thought (and I think they have internal polling on this) it would piss black women off quite a bit, and they are the base of the base.

yeah, i dont think they do it. I think unless biden has a stroke or something obvious(that would effect next year) he will stay in.

kdrudy
Sep 19, 2009

Killer robot posted:

The whole "Biden can't take a stage or people will see the rapidly advancing dementia" line is literally four years old at this point, and it still remains perpetually around the corner like fusion. Even if it eventually becomes true, it won't be any kind of insight or factual observation so much as people just putting a bet down and spinning the wheel until their number comes up.

He's old, but by all indications he's just old, and like in 2019 the only people who care to hammer at it either wanted an even older guy or one that's barely younger and in visibly worse shape. It would hurt him in a theoretical race (primary or general) against someone actually young and vigorous, but it seens unlikely we're getting either of those.

This is what I keep coming back to, that I haven't actually seen real proof that Biden has real thinking problems. He's old, no denying that, but plenty of old people are still sharp, I haven't seen a string of goofs that would suggest he is losing capability there.

Plus the idea of running anyone else unless Biden himself chooses to step down is silly considering an incumbent almost always has a better chance of winning.

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

Dapper_Swindler posted:

I have said this before but shits not real until it is.
Ezra Klein had a podcast episode a few weeks ago where he talked to a Dem pollster (whose overall message, despite the clickbait episode title, was "chill out"), and they talked about how it's a very different thing to have a pollster call you when you're stressed out a year before the election, when you've barely put any thought into it except that you're mad you just spent $400 on $300 worth of groceries, and say "Throw the bum out! Trump!" versus listening to Trump talk for a year and then going into a booth and making a binding decision that "Yes, Trump." People can't imagine their emotional realities in a point that hasn't arrived yet, and Trump being the next president being a real possibility and not a vague idea would make a lot of people think twice.

kdrudy posted:

This is what I keep coming back to, that I haven't actually seen real proof that Biden has real thinking problems. He's old, no denying that, but plenty of old people are still sharp, I haven't seen a string of goofs that would suggest he is losing capability there.
Yeah, the thing about Biden's "decline" as it were is that it's mostly about the performative aspects of politics. I don't see any reason to think that he's not just as fluent with policy and skilled in negotiating as he ever was, it just takes him a little longer to put his thoughts together and he can't go on camera and look good talking about it reliably. Considering that results-wise he's easily outperformed the handsome, charismatic man in his 50s that he used to work for, if he's not doing a good job, somebody is.

Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 19:02 on Nov 22, 2023

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Misunderstood posted:

Yeah, Ezra Klein had a podcast episode a few weeks ago where he talked to a Dem pollster (whose overall message, despite the clickbait episode title, was "chill out"), and they talked about how it's a very different thing to have a pollster call you when you're stressed out a year before the election, when you've barely put any thought into it except that you're mad you just spent $400 on $300 worth of groceries, and say "Throw the bum out! Trump!" versus listening to Trump talk for a year and then going into a booth and making a binding decision that "Yes, Trump." People can't imagine their emotional realities in a point that hasn't arrived yet, and Trump being the next president being a real possibility and not a vague idea would make a lot of people think twice.

Yeah, thing about Biden's "decline" as it were is that it's mostly about the performative aspects of politics. I don't see any reason to think that he's not just as fluent with policy and skilled in negotiating as he ever was, it just takes him a little longer to put his thoughts together and he can't go on camera and look good talking about it reliably. Considering that results-wise he's easily outperformed the handsome, charismatic man in his 50s that he used to work for, if he's not doing a good job, somebody is.

my view of bidens issues is that he is old as gently caress but probably in better physical shape then me and most of the stutter stuff happens when he is reading something off the cuff for a news conference. He is fine when its the state of the union and etc.I have a similar issue but i am fine reading stuff for my job because i have read it over a billion times or so.

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy
No more debates, just push-up contests. I bet Biden can do one, so he'll win.

E: obviously I’m joking about the push-ups, but would it be a good idea for Biden to challenge Trump to physical challenges Biden can perform and he can’t, knowing he’ll never accept? Not, like, a fight, or a foot race, but “I hope former president Trump can join me on this charity bike ride for childhood cancer…”

Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 19:06 on Nov 22, 2023

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Misunderstood posted:

No more debates, just push-up contests. I bet Biden can do one, so he'll win.

E: obviously I’m joking about the push-ups, but would it be a good idea for Biden to challenge Trump to physical challenges Biden can perform and he can’t, knowing he’ll never accept? Not, like, a fight, or a foot race, but “I hope former president Trump can join me on this charity bike ride for childhood cancer…”

well he is more fit then me then.

Shooting Blanks
Jun 6, 2007

Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade



Misunderstood posted:

Yeah, Ezra Klein had a podcast episode a few weeks ago where he talked to a Dem pollster (whose overall message, despite the clickbait episode title, was "chill out"), and they talked about how it's a very different thing to have a pollster call you when you're stressed out a year before the election, when you've barely put any thought into it except that you're mad you just spent $400 on $300 worth of groceries, and say "Throw the bum out! Trump!" versus listening to Trump talk for a year and then going into a booth and making a binding decision that "Yes, Trump." People can't imagine their emotional realities in a point that hasn't arrived yet, and Trump being the next president being a real possibility and not a vague idea would make a lot of people think twice.

Yeah, thing about Biden's "decline" as it were is that it's mostly about the performative aspects of politics. I don't see any reason to think that he's not just as fluent with policy and skilled in negotiating as he ever was, it just takes him a little longer to put his thoughts together and he can't go on camera and look good talking about it reliably. Considering that results-wise he's easily outperformed the handsome, charismatic man in his 50s that he used to work for, if he's not doing a good job, somebody is.

Part of Biden's issue is that while his administration has been effective in many aspects, Biden himself has been a little too behind-the-scenes. Take the railroad almost-strike, as an example. A year ago, Biden was getting skewered for not backing the unions - despite the fact that his administration was continuing to work behind the scenes to broker a deal to grant sick leave. I legitimately don't know how much of that is Biden taking an active role vs. putting together a competent team. It's almost the polar opposite of Trump who took credit for accomplishing everything under the sun, but other than massive tax cuts and Operation Warp Speed, accomplished relatively little during his tenure.

I do think 2024 will largely come down to current perceptions - particularly of the economy, after N months of ugly inflation.

Ms Adequate
Oct 30, 2011

Baby even when I'm dead and gone
You will always be my only one, my only one
When the night is calling
No matter who I become
You will always be my only one, my only one, my only one
When the night is calling



The Top G posted:

I hear Whitmers name tossed around, what’s driving the buzz? She was vetted for running mate in 2020 (though largely because of gender and swing state), gave a speech at the DNC, and did an above average job with Covid. Is that about it? Looks like she is decent platform wise too, with some track record of getting results

Dems control the House & Senate in Michigan for about a year now, has she been able to take advantage?

Yeah she's done a bunch of stuff, campaigned on fixing the drat roads and put major investment into infrastructure repairs, protected abortion rights, has been working on improving educational access and attainment (programs for free tuition for various degrees and professional skills programs, fixing up pre-k and early years education, and a real banger called Future for Frontliners that provides free college tuition for essential workers during COVID; definitely one of the more solid expressions of actual material gratitude to them around), expanded civil rights protections to cover us queers, and this year she got Right to Work repealed in Michigan.

Misunderstood posted:

There are probably a hundred Dems who would "have a shot." No, there aren't too many famous Dems right now where you'd say, "Hey, there's a president!" But you know what makes you a lot more famous? Being a top candidate for president! They're not exciting and the press doesn't talk about them, but even boring governors like Ned Lamont and Phil Murphy would do fine as presidential candidates. Besides Trump, a party base has only been actually happy with exactly one non-incumbent presidential candidate in my lifetime, I'm not sure why everybody is expecting JFK 2: Jackie's Revenge to pop up out of nowhere every four years.

Whitmer, in particular, is an incredibly strong candidate. There's nothing about her that isn't "placed" to run for president. She's the very popular governor of the 10th largest state, in her second term. She is the exact age voters want. She looks good on TV. She's been winning by 10+ in a state that had a completely Republican government within the last 10 years, and brought the legislature with her. It's pretty hard to imagine a stronger candidate. If she can't represent a solid "top of the bench," I'm not sure what people are expecting.

That's a fair point on the fact of running raising your national profile enough to win by definition. On the second: Hey don't gotta tell me, I think Whitmer really is one of the best candidates the Dems could choose!

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

Shooting Blanks posted:

Part of Biden's issue is that while his administration has been effective in many aspects, Biden himself has been a little too behind-the-scenes. Take the railroad almost-strike, as an example. A year ago, Biden was getting skewered for not backing the unions - despite the fact that his administration was continuing to work behind the scenes to broker a deal to grant sick leave.
Definitely.

I think something similar is actually happening right now. If Biden comes out hard and calls for a ceasefire, and spooks Netanyahu, spinning up his paranoia and that of the Israeli public to the sun, maybe you don't even get the ceasefire (or whatever you want to call it) that has been negotiated for the next several days, and things would actually be worse in Gaza. But the way he's done it has made him look like a complete enabler, unless you're carefully following diplomatic news to know about the private pressure he and Blinken have been applying. (Now that it's gotten some tangible results people might warm up a little, but I dunno.)

Shooting Blanks posted:

I do think 2024 will largely come down to current perceptions - particularly of the economy, after N months of ugly inflation.
We know how many months of ugly inflation there were - about 18, May '21 to October '22. It's fallen pretty close to the target and there's no particular macroeconomic reason to expect it to come back. Even the hawks at the Fed are okay with pausing on rate increases for now, which suggests a lot of confidence inflation is licked. (Medium-long term, a lot of economists are predicting a return to near-zero interest rates and inadequate demand.)

So it's just a matter of how much N months of much lower inflation is noticed by the public, and whether they give Biden credit for it. (He doesn't deserve any credit for it, really, it was just the Fed and general macroeconomic conditions, but he also doesn't really deserve any blame for it happening in the first place, so, whatever.) It's clear people are going to continue to be upset about prices for some time. Like, the NYT had a focus group with Dems yesterday and I saw the phrase "They say inflation is lower, but I don't see things coming down." People are expecting things to come down! It's not going to happen (and in most cases isn't even desirable)! So how to we fight that expectation, because if that's the only thing that is going to make people happy then we're just pretty much screwed.

A lot of people tend to get pay bumps early in the year - it will be interesting to see March-May if people's feelings about the economy are thawing a little bit if they get a raise and feel like the money isn't eaten up by inflation as quickly as it was the last few years.
------
One interesting thing about issue polling that LT posted this week - as usual, Republicans get their big lead on "who do you trust to run the economy" because everybody knows the Money Guys with the hair gel and white collars on colored shirts vote for Republicans. But on the question, "whose economic policies would most help the middle class," Democrats were ahead! Now, considering, what, 90% of people consider themselves, "middle class," exactly which one of those figures do you think would predict voting patterns better? (Also, what the gently caress do people think "the economy" is?)

Ms Adequate posted:

That's a fair point on the fact of running raising your national profile enough to win by definition. On the second: Hey don't gotta tell me, I think Whitmer really is one of the best candidates the Dems could choose!
:respek: Yeah, I think we just disagree a bit on how good of a candidate she is, not whether she's a good one.

Angry_Ed
Mar 30, 2010




Grimey Drawer

Shooting Blanks posted:

Part of Biden's issue is that while his administration has been effective in many aspects, Biden himself has been a little too behind-the-scenes. Take the railroad almost-strike, as an example. A year ago, Biden was getting skewered for not backing the unions - despite the fact that his administration was continuing to work behind the scenes to broker a deal to grant sick leave. I legitimately don't know how much of that is Biden taking an active role vs. putting together a competent team.

On the flip side more recently, Biden showed up at the Auto Workers strikes and made speeches of support (which is a bit unprecedented in modern menory) while Trump was busy supporting non-union shops

World Famous W
May 25, 2007

BAAAAAAAAAAAA
both candidates are doddering mummies falling apart and that there is a non zero % chance that both die from olditis right before the election isn't funny funny but im still laughing

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Misunderstood posted:

Definitely.

I think something similar is actually happening right now. If Biden comes out hard and calls for a ceasefire, and spooks Netanyahu, spinning up his paranoia and that of the Israeli public to the sun, maybe you don't even get the ceasefire (or whatever you want to call it) that has been negotiated for the next several days, and things would actually be worse in Gaza. But the way he's done it has made him look like a complete enabler, unless you're carefully following diplomatic news to know about the private pressure he and Blinken have been applying. (Now that it's gotten some tangible results people might warm up a little, but I dunno.)

We know how many months of ugly inflation there were - about 18, May '21 to October '22. It's fallen pretty close to the target and there's no particular macroeconomic reason to expect it to come back. Even the hawks at the Fed are okay with pausing on rate increases for now, which suggests a lot of confidence inflation is licked. (Medium-long term, a lot of economists are predicting a return to near-zero interest rates and inadequate demand.)

So it's just a matter of how much N months of much lower inflation is noticed by the public, and whether they give Biden credit for it. (He doesn't deserve any credit for it, really, it was just the Fed and general macroeconomic conditions, but he also doesn't really deserve any blame for it happening in the first place, so, whatever.) It's clear people are going to continue to be upset about prices for some time. Like, the NYT had a focus group with Dems yesterday and I saw the phrase "They say inflation is lower, but I don't see things coming down." People are expecting things to come down! It's not going to happen (and in most cases isn't even desirable)! So how to we fight that expectation, because if that's the only thing that is going to make people happy then we're just pretty much screwed.

A lot of people tend to get pay bumps early in the year - it will be interesting to see March-May if people's feelings about the economy are thawing a little bit if they get a raise and feel like the money isn't eaten up by inflation as quickly as it was the last few years.
------
One interesting thing about issue polling that LT posted this week - as usual, Republicans get their big lead on "who do you trust to run the economy" because everybody knows the Money Guys with the hair gel and white collars on colored shirts vote for Republicans. But on the question, "whose economic policies would most help the middle class," Democrats were ahead! Now, considering, what, 90% of people consider themselves, "middle class," exactly which one of those figures do you think would predict voting patterns better? (Also, what the gently caress do people think "the economy" is?)

:respek: Yeah, I think we just disagree a bit on how good of a candidate she is, not whether she's a good one.


yeah. i think biden did need to be vocal but he also had to walk a fine line and now it sounds like he might be able to get alot of hostages out, Bibi will try to gently caress it up but he and his admin will be even more hosed then they already are if they do. but yeah i think biden does need to be louder with the work he is doing.

i got two raises and bonus and another bonus coming in the next couple weeks, its not amazing money but its good for me and gives me extra money to spend on stupid poo poo that spreads the money around. alot of the economy stuff is "groceries and housing and etc are still up or randomly up". alot of people think THEY are doing well or better, but think everyone else is doing worse, or they get hosed their company imploding itself. Like my company might be doing layoffs but i wouldnt know because i have been here two years and do well enough that ill probably be safe.

Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 19:51 on Nov 22, 2023

SirFozzie
Mar 28, 2004
Goombatta!
Car Explosion at the Rainbow Bridge crossing between USA and Canada:

https://twitter.com/news4buffalo/status/1727394555987935724

I'm kinda worried that it ties into current events in the I/P area.

TheDisreputableDog
Oct 13, 2005
I’m a never trumper who voted for Biden, but Trump vs Booker would give me pause. Certainly there’s a younger Democratic option who isn’t transparently phony and sincere-soundbite-voice fake, right?

DeadlyMuffin
Jul 3, 2007

Dapper_Swindler posted:

yeah. i think biden did need to be vocal but he also had to walk a fine line and now it sounds like he might be able to get alot of hostages out, Bibi will try to gently caress it up but he and his admin will be even more hosed then they already are if they do. but yeah i think biden does need to be louder with the work he is doing.

Why give Biden credit for the ceasefire? I'm not trying to pick on you, I genuinely don't understand what he's been doing.

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

TheDisreputableDog posted:

I’m a never trumper who voted for Biden, but Trump vs Booker would give me pause. Certainly there’s a younger Democratic option who isn’t transparently phony and sincere-soundbite-voice fake, right?
What is the issue with somebody being phony and having a dumb talking point voice - you know, being a politician - in the context of running against Donald Trump? You can't even name a policy issue on which Booker is uniquely disqualified for you, just him seeming like a "phony" is enough for you to say "yeah, let's let the guy back in office who's obviously such a terrible choice that he made me vote for a party I never thought I would"?

My biggest issue with Booker is that he loves Wall Street and wants to marry it, but, not to overgeneralize, never-Trumpers tend to be pretty cool with Wall Street so I don't know if that's breaking any deals with you.

DeadlyMuffin posted:

Why give Biden credit for the ceasefire? I'm not trying to pick on you, I genuinely don't understand what he's been doing.
He and his SOS have been talking to Israel behind the scenes for weeks basically begging them to chill out; it's well-documented. And the current ceasefire agreement was negotiated on behalf of Israel and Hamas by the US and Qatar.

Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 19:56 on Nov 22, 2023

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

DeadlyMuffin posted:

Why give Biden credit for the ceasefire? I'm not trying to pick on you, I genuinely don't understand what he's been doing.

He is trying to get the hostages out mostly since a bunch of them are american citizens. apperently their are alot of closed door negotiations and biden and blinken are pissed at bibi and co for various obvious reasons.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Misunderstood posted:

What is the issue with somebody being phony and having a dumb talking point voice - you know being a politician - in the context of running against Donald Trump? You can't even name a policy issue on which Booker is uniquely disqualified for you, just him seeming like a "phony" is enough for you to say "yeah, let's let the guy back in office who's obviously such a terrible choice that he made me vote for a party I never thought I would"?

My biggest issue with Booker is that he loves Wall Street and wants to marry it, but, not to overgeneralize, never-Trumpers tend to be pretty cool with Wall Street so I don't know if that's breaking any deals with you.

yeah, i dont like booker for the same reason i dont care for pete or O'Rourke, they lean way way way to hard into trying to be obama much like how alot of GOP ghouls try to be trump and neither works. they dont have that charisma check or whatever. plus other issues with each of them.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



SirFozzie posted:

I'm kinda worried that it ties into current events in the I/P area.
Based on what

Retro42
Jun 27, 2011


Shooting Blanks posted:

Part of Biden's issue is that while his administration has been effective in many aspects, Biden himself has been a little too behind-the-scenes. Take the railroad almost-strike, as an example. A year ago, Biden was getting skewered for not backing the unions - despite the fact that his administration was continuing to work behind the scenes to broker a deal to grant sick leave. I legitimately don't know how much of that is Biden taking an active role vs. putting together a competent team. It's almost the polar opposite of Trump who took credit for accomplishing everything under the sun, but other than massive tax cuts and Operation Warp Speed, accomplished relatively little during his tenure.

I do think 2024 will largely come down to current perceptions - particularly of the economy, after N months of ugly inflation.

The single biggest caveat (to a percentage of people) of Biden's presidency will be that him keeping his head down and working for the last 3 years is somehow "less Presidential" than Trump spending the same time making soundbites and golfing as President.

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

Misunderstood posted:

What is the issue with somebody being phony and having a dumb talking point voice - you know being a politician - in the context of running against Donald Trump? You can't even name a policy issue on which Booker is uniquely disqualified for you, just him seeming like a "phony" is enough for you to say "yeah, let's let the guy back in office who's obviously such a terrible choice that he made me vote for a party I never thought I would"?

My biggest issue with Booker is that he loves Wall Street and wants to marry it, but, not to overgeneralize, never-Trumpers tend to be pretty cool with Wall Street so I don't know if that's breaking any deals with you.

It's hard to trust any New Jersey politician. It feels like they barely have parties there, just patronage schemes; like the Gilded Age never ended. I find it dubious Cory Booker didn't know what Menendez was up to ( the Senator that just got pulled in for rampant corruption.)

TheDeadlyShoe fucked around with this message at 20:03 on Nov 22, 2023

SirFozzie
Mar 28, 2004
Goombatta!
Based on the fact that vehicles don't explode on their own (which this sounds like) and The timing of it (the vehicle was entering the toll booth trying to make it to the US) makes this sound like a car bomb attempt. And what area in the world would trigger car bombing (note: Not ruling out either side or "false flag" attempts, but this seems aimed at that)

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/22/us/niagara-falls-rainbow-bridge/index.html

A vehicle was trying to enter the US side of the border, according to a spokesperson for the Niagara Falls mayor’s office.

DeadlyMuffin
Jul 3, 2007

Misunderstood posted:

He and his SOS have been talking to Israel behind the scenes for weeks basically begging them to chill out; it's well-documented. And the current ceasefire agreement was negotiated on behalf of Israel and Hamas by the US and Qatar.

Documentation would be great. Like what?

Dapper_Swindler posted:

He is trying to get the hostages out mostly since a bunch of them are american citizens. apperently their are alot of closed door negotiations and biden and blinken are pissed at bibi and co for various obvious reasons.

Do you have a source for this? I've been following the I/P thread and I haven't been seeing Biden get credit for the ceasefire, but that thread is also a mess.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



SirFozzie posted:

Car Explosion at the Rainbow Bridge crossing between USA and Canada:

https://twitter.com/news4buffalo/status/1727394555987935724

I'm kinda worried that it ties into current events in the I/P area.

People are speculating that it may have been a Tesla that exploded based on the hubcaps. So, y'know, most likely just Musk's QA departments doing what they do best.

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy
One thing Trump has going for him in current polling (that I don’t think will hold up over the campaign) is that because 20-21 were so interminable, 19 feels like it was a long time ago, and some people have already developed a bizarre nostalgia for it. Things sucked back then too, people!

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Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

SirFozzie posted:

Car Explosion at the Rainbow Bridge crossing between USA and Canada:

https://twitter.com/news4buffalo/status/1727394555987935724

I'm kinda worried that it ties into current events in the I/P area.

ehh. why? i feel like that kinda horror event would be at synagogue or a mosque or some sort of religious center or at a college protest or etc.

Misunderstood posted:

One thing Trump has going for him in current polling (that I don’t think will hold up over the campaign) is that because 20-21 were so interminable, 19 feels like it was a long time ago, and some people have already developed a bizarre nostalgia for it. Things sucked back then too, people!

this, i also think that erodes when trumps on tv way way way more. I also think alot of people just dont accept that he will probably be the primary winner.

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