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(Thread IKs: Stereotype)
 
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  • Reply
MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

Microplastics posted:

It's chart time motherfuckers!!!!!





these two really say it all.

the first one makes it visually clear how time is not on our side. its saying "any argument for moderation in the 90's and 00's is now mathematically invalid. any argument for moderation in the 10's was, at best, naively optimistic."

the second one shows what dealing with this would actually cost, a simple 10x'ing. and while its a very larger number in the abstract its actually not in the context of a.) the economy as a whole and b.) the premise that human life has value?

MightyBigMinus has issued a correction as of 14:26 on Nov 23, 2023

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crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*
Bad news for the world! - China seeks global supremacy and won't allow climate worries to hold back the regime's economic conquest.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/china-s-green-surge-could-be-a-watershed-moment-for-the-world-20231122-p5elt1.html

China’s green surge could be a watershed moment for the world
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
November 23, 2023 — 3.35pm

China’s carbon emissions have either peaked already or will do this winter, seven years ahead of schedule. They may plateau for a year or two but will then go into exponential decline for mechanical and unstoppable reasons.

The country’s target of net-zero by 2060 is likely to be achieved a decade earlier than previously assumed, and perhaps earlier than in Europe.

This is a remarkable turn of events. Xi Jinping has made a giant strategic and economic bet on clean-tech dominance, aiming to corner the world’s renewable market and to break dependency on sea-borne energy supplies running through the US 7th Fleet.

The International Energy Agency says China accounts for 60 per cent of all new solar and wind power being installed across the world this year and next. This rollout has combined with a drastic slowdown in China’s rate of economic trend growth and the exhaustion of its Ponzi style property model.

Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, says China has reached a structural tipping point where the rollout of renewables is outpacing the rise in electricity demand.

“A drop in power-sector emissions in 2024 is essentially locked in. We’re likely to see a fall in total CO2 emitted in the first half of next year,” he said.

China is building a gargantuan network of “clean energy bases” in the Gobi, Ordos, and Tengger deserts, and further across the arid wastelands of the northwest. Solar and wind parks run along an arc from Inner Mongolia to Qinghai on the Tibetan plateau.

The electricity will reach the cities of industrial China through ultra-high voltage cables, which cut transition losses to 3.5 per cent per 1000 kilometres.

The scale is staggering. The Golmud Solar Park in Qinghai is already the world’s largest solar project with 2.8 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity, drawing on seven million panels stretching across the sands. The plan is to enlarge it six-fold within five years.

The regime is approving two new coal plants a week. It does not mean what many in the West think it means. China is adding one GW of coal power on average as back-up for every six GW of new renewable power. The two go hand in hand.

“The more renewable energy used, the more the need for coal peaking capacity. A large number of coal power units will be idle,” says Chinese coal expert Li Ting.

The coal plants will be used to buttress wind and solar rather than as baseload, and to avert a repeat of blackouts that traumatised the Chinese elites in 2021-2022.

Coal companies will be paid a subsidy under a capacity price mechanism unveiled earlier this month to keep reserve power. S&P Global says the capacity usage rate will fall to 25 per cent over the next two decades.

The coal that is burned will increasingly come with carbon capture. The mining province of Shanxi has a project underway to turn CO2 into ‘gold’ by making carbon nanotubes, which boost the power of lithium-ion batteries in EVs.

Myllyvirta said the spike in Chinese emissions over the last two years is an anomaly caused by hydropower cuts following droughts. La Niña is now refilling the reservoirs of the Great Snowy Mountains and Tibet.

Putin’s war in Ukraine also led to a surge in coal use after liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices went through the roof. That episode is fading. China’s LNG imports were up 30 per cent in October from a year ago.

At the risk of overtaxing the reader’s appetite for figures, it is worth spelling out the enormity of what China is doing. The China Electricity Council says the country will add 210 GW of solar this year, twice the entire solar capacity installed in the US to date.

It is not going to stop there. Carbon Brief says China’s output of solar panels was 310 GW in 2022; it will be 500 GW in 2023; and 1000 GW in 2025 – four times the total installation of new solar worldwide last year.

China is undoubtedly getting over its skis. The grid cannot yet absorb so much renewable power. Curtailment is a chronic problem. But it is equally obvious that China will not let that stand in the way. The grid will catch up.

The ramp up of battery capacity is even steeper: 550 GWh in 2022; 800 GWh in 2023, and 3,000 in 2025. That will alleviate the shorter end of intermittency.

The point to remember about Xi is that he was green long before it became fashionable. He wrote a weekly column twenty years ago as Zhejiang party chief warning that China’s “energy-intensive and high-polluting” economic model was unsustainable.

He defied the orthodoxy of break-neck industrialisation and GDP worship, launching a radical ‘Green GDP’ programme in Zhejiang in 2004. It called on local governments to subtract ecological damage from the raw GDP figures.


He was defeated by vested interests, one reason why he has been careful not to force a showdown too soon with China’s powerful coal lobby. He is circumventing them instead by giving renewable companies priority access to cheap credit from the state-controlled banks.

The brains behind the Green GDP movement was Xie Zhenhua, today China’s climate negotiator and the man who paved the way for the Paris climate accord.

He helped Xi overcome entrenched opposition from China’s old guard by using a Kuznets Curve to show that a country’s CO2 emissions peak and decline naturally as it develops, and therefore that climate ‘concessions’ would not restrain China’s development.

This led to Xi’s Yingtai evening chat with Barack Obama, and the deal that made Paris possible.

Xie Zhenhua and US negotiator John Kerry have replicated the formula this month in advance of COP28 in Dubai, calling for a tripling of renewable energy by 2030, as well as carbon capture. It will not be easy for the carbon cartel to sabotage COP28 by turning it into a fight between the West and the rest.

The concept of ‘concessions’ is in any case jejune. China itself is at the sharp end of a ‘two degree’ world. The water towers of Tibet are heating twice as fast as global mean temperatures. Melting glaciers are causing spring floods followed by droughts. The aquifers of the North China plain are drying up.

Xi seeks global supremacy. He was never going to let climate worries alone hold back China’s rise. But today the two are in perfect alignment. Clean-tech has become the spearhead of China’s global economic conquest, and this changes the thrust of Beijing’s climate diplomacy.

It is no longer possible for footdraggers to hide behind China. As Chinese emissions roll over and go into freefall, Xi will become an even bigger problem for them than Western preachers.

As for those in Europe who think that a carbon border tax can protect the car industry against imports of cheap Chinese EVs, they delude themselves.

China’s battery king CATL will be making lithium-ion batteries at a zero-carbon gigafactory in Sichuan before Germany is anywhere close. The shoe could be on the other foot.

Whatever way you look at it, peak CO2 emissions in China is a watershed moment for global geopolitics, and for humanity.

Telegraph, London

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice

Hubbert posted:

unrelated to biosphere collapse but did Stereotype die or something

yeah, sucks. happy thanksgiving!

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

HAIL eSATA-n
Apr 7, 2007


Stereotype posted:

yeah, sucks. happy thanksgiving!

congrats though

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy
so just 3 more years until the line starts getting less vertical again? that's great news!

something something tachyon carbon capture

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

crepeface posted:

Bad news for the world! - China seeks global supremacy and won't allow climate worries to hold back the regime's economic conquest.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/china-s-green-surge-could-be-a-watershed-moment-for-the-world-20231122-p5elt1.html

China’s green surge could be a watershed moment for the world
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
November 23, 2023 — 3.35pm

China’s carbon emissions have either peaked already or will do this winter, seven years ahead of schedule. They may plateau for a year or two but will then go into exponential decline for mechanical and unstoppable reasons.

The country’s target of net-zero by 2060 is likely to be achieved a decade earlier than previously assumed, and perhaps earlier than in Europe.

This is a remarkable turn of events. Xi Jinping has made a giant strategic and economic bet on clean-tech dominance, aiming to corner the world’s renewable market and to break dependency on sea-borne energy supplies running through the US 7th Fleet.

The International Energy Agency says China accounts for 60 per cent of all new solar and wind power being installed across the world this year and next. This rollout has combined with a drastic slowdown in China’s rate of economic trend growth and the exhaustion of its Ponzi style property model.

Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, says China has reached a structural tipping point where the rollout of renewables is outpacing the rise in electricity demand.

“A drop in power-sector emissions in 2024 is essentially locked in. We’re likely to see a fall in total CO2 emitted in the first half of next year,” he said.

China is building a gargantuan network of “clean energy bases” in the Gobi, Ordos, and Tengger deserts, and further across the arid wastelands of the northwest. Solar and wind parks run along an arc from Inner Mongolia to Qinghai on the Tibetan plateau.

The electricity will reach the cities of industrial China through ultra-high voltage cables, which cut transition losses to 3.5 per cent per 1000 kilometres.

The scale is staggering. The Golmud Solar Park in Qinghai is already the world’s largest solar project with 2.8 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity, drawing on seven million panels stretching across the sands. The plan is to enlarge it six-fold within five years.

The regime is approving two new coal plants a week. It does not mean what many in the West think it means. China is adding one GW of coal power on average as back-up for every six GW of new renewable power. The two go hand in hand.

“The more renewable energy used, the more the need for coal peaking capacity. A large number of coal power units will be idle,” says Chinese coal expert Li Ting.

The coal plants will be used to buttress wind and solar rather than as baseload, and to avert a repeat of blackouts that traumatised the Chinese elites in 2021-2022.

Coal companies will be paid a subsidy under a capacity price mechanism unveiled earlier this month to keep reserve power. S&P Global says the capacity usage rate will fall to 25 per cent over the next two decades.

The coal that is burned will increasingly come with carbon capture. The mining province of Shanxi has a project underway to turn CO2 into ‘gold’ by making carbon nanotubes, which boost the power of lithium-ion batteries in EVs.

Myllyvirta said the spike in Chinese emissions over the last two years is an anomaly caused by hydropower cuts following droughts. La Niña is now refilling the reservoirs of the Great Snowy Mountains and Tibet.

Putin’s war in Ukraine also led to a surge in coal use after liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices went through the roof. That episode is fading. China’s LNG imports were up 30 per cent in October from a year ago.

At the risk of overtaxing the reader’s appetite for figures, it is worth spelling out the enormity of what China is doing. The China Electricity Council says the country will add 210 GW of solar this year, twice the entire solar capacity installed in the US to date.

It is not going to stop there. Carbon Brief says China’s output of solar panels was 310 GW in 2022; it will be 500 GW in 2023; and 1000 GW in 2025 – four times the total installation of new solar worldwide last year.

China is undoubtedly getting over its skis. The grid cannot yet absorb so much renewable power. Curtailment is a chronic problem. But it is equally obvious that China will not let that stand in the way. The grid will catch up.

The ramp up of battery capacity is even steeper: 550 GWh in 2022; 800 GWh in 2023, and 3,000 in 2025. That will alleviate the shorter end of intermittency.

The point to remember about Xi is that he was green long before it became fashionable. He wrote a weekly column twenty years ago as Zhejiang party chief warning that China’s “energy-intensive and high-polluting” economic model was unsustainable.

He defied the orthodoxy of break-neck industrialisation and GDP worship, launching a radical ‘Green GDP’ programme in Zhejiang in 2004. It called on local governments to subtract ecological damage from the raw GDP figures.


He was defeated by vested interests, one reason why he has been careful not to force a showdown too soon with China’s powerful coal lobby. He is circumventing them instead by giving renewable companies priority access to cheap credit from the state-controlled banks.

The brains behind the Green GDP movement was Xie Zhenhua, today China’s climate negotiator and the man who paved the way for the Paris climate accord.

He helped Xi overcome entrenched opposition from China’s old guard by using a Kuznets Curve to show that a country’s CO2 emissions peak and decline naturally as it develops, and therefore that climate ‘concessions’ would not restrain China’s development.

This led to Xi’s Yingtai evening chat with Barack Obama, and the deal that made Paris possible.

Xie Zhenhua and US negotiator John Kerry have replicated the formula this month in advance of COP28 in Dubai, calling for a tripling of renewable energy by 2030, as well as carbon capture. It will not be easy for the carbon cartel to sabotage COP28 by turning it into a fight between the West and the rest.

The concept of ‘concessions’ is in any case jejune. China itself is at the sharp end of a ‘two degree’ world. The water towers of Tibet are heating twice as fast as global mean temperatures. Melting glaciers are causing spring floods followed by droughts. The aquifers of the North China plain are drying up.

Xi seeks global supremacy. He was never going to let climate worries alone hold back China’s rise. But today the two are in perfect alignment. Clean-tech has become the spearhead of China’s global economic conquest, and this changes the thrust of Beijing’s climate diplomacy.

It is no longer possible for footdraggers to hide behind China. As Chinese emissions roll over and go into freefall, Xi will become an even bigger problem for them than Western preachers.

As for those in Europe who think that a carbon border tax can protect the car industry against imports of cheap Chinese EVs, they delude themselves.

China’s battery king CATL will be making lithium-ion batteries at a zero-carbon gigafactory in Sichuan before Germany is anywhere close. The shoe could be on the other foot.

Whatever way you look at it, peak CO2 emissions in China is a watershed moment for global geopolitics, and for humanity.

Telegraph, London


But you see none of this matters because my vibes tell me so

Twigand Berries
Sep 7, 2008

crepeface posted:

Bad news for the world! - China seeks global supremacy and won't allow climate worries to hold back the regime's economic conquest.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/china-s-green-surge-could-be-a-watershed-moment-for-the-world-20231122-p5elt1.html

China’s green surge could be a watershed moment for the world
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
November 23, 2023 — 3.35pm

China’s carbon emissions have either peaked already or will do this winter, seven years ahead of schedule. They may plateau for a year or two but will then go into exponential decline for mechanical and unstoppable reasons.

The country’s target of net-zero by 2060 is likely to be achieved a decade earlier than previously assumed, and perhaps earlier than in Europe.

This is a remarkable turn of events. Xi Jinping has made a giant strategic and economic bet on clean-tech dominance, aiming to corner the world’s renewable market and to break dependency on sea-borne energy supplies running through the US 7th Fleet.

The International Energy Agency says China accounts for 60 per cent of all new solar and wind power being installed across the world this year and next. This rollout has combined with a drastic slowdown in China’s rate of economic trend growth and the exhaustion of its Ponzi style property model.

Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, says China has reached a structural tipping point where the rollout of renewables is outpacing the rise in electricity demand.

“A drop in power-sector emissions in 2024 is essentially locked in. We’re likely to see a fall in total CO2 emitted in the first half of next year,” he said.

China is building a gargantuan network of “clean energy bases” in the Gobi, Ordos, and Tengger deserts, and further across the arid wastelands of the northwest. Solar and wind parks run along an arc from Inner Mongolia to Qinghai on the Tibetan plateau.

The electricity will reach the cities of industrial China through ultra-high voltage cables, which cut transition losses to 3.5 per cent per 1000 kilometres.

The scale is staggering. The Golmud Solar Park in Qinghai is already the world’s largest solar project with 2.8 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity, drawing on seven million panels stretching across the sands. The plan is to enlarge it six-fold within five years.

The regime is approving two new coal plants a week. It does not mean what many in the West think it means. China is adding one GW of coal power on average as back-up for every six GW of new renewable power. The two go hand in hand.

“The more renewable energy used, the more the need for coal peaking capacity. A large number of coal power units will be idle,” says Chinese coal expert Li Ting.

The coal plants will be used to buttress wind and solar rather than as baseload, and to avert a repeat of blackouts that traumatised the Chinese elites in 2021-2022.

Coal companies will be paid a subsidy under a capacity price mechanism unveiled earlier this month to keep reserve power. S&P Global says the capacity usage rate will fall to 25 per cent over the next two decades.

The coal that is burned will increasingly come with carbon capture. The mining province of Shanxi has a project underway to turn CO2 into ‘gold’ by making carbon nanotubes, which boost the power of lithium-ion batteries in EVs.

Myllyvirta said the spike in Chinese emissions over the last two years is an anomaly caused by hydropower cuts following droughts. La Niña is now refilling the reservoirs of the Great Snowy Mountains and Tibet.

Putin’s war in Ukraine also led to a surge in coal use after liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices went through the roof. That episode is fading. China’s LNG imports were up 30 per cent in October from a year ago.

At the risk of overtaxing the reader’s appetite for figures, it is worth spelling out the enormity of what China is doing. The China Electricity Council says the country will add 210 GW of solar this year, twice the entire solar capacity installed in the US to date.

It is not going to stop there. Carbon Brief says China’s output of solar panels was 310 GW in 2022; it will be 500 GW in 2023; and 1000 GW in 2025 – four times the total installation of new solar worldwide last year.

China is undoubtedly getting over its skis. The grid cannot yet absorb so much renewable power. Curtailment is a chronic problem. But it is equally obvious that China will not let that stand in the way. The grid will catch up.

The ramp up of battery capacity is even steeper: 550 GWh in 2022; 800 GWh in 2023, and 3,000 in 2025. That will alleviate the shorter end of intermittency.

The point to remember about Xi is that he was green long before it became fashionable. He wrote a weekly column twenty years ago as Zhejiang party chief warning that China’s “energy-intensive and high-polluting” economic model was unsustainable.

He defied the orthodoxy of break-neck industrialisation and GDP worship, launching a radical ‘Green GDP’ programme in Zhejiang in 2004. It called on local governments to subtract ecological damage from the raw GDP figures.


He was defeated by vested interests, one reason why he has been careful not to force a showdown too soon with China’s powerful coal lobby. He is circumventing them instead by giving renewable companies priority access to cheap credit from the state-controlled banks.

The brains behind the Green GDP movement was Xie Zhenhua, today China’s climate negotiator and the man who paved the way for the Paris climate accord.

He helped Xi overcome entrenched opposition from China’s old guard by using a Kuznets Curve to show that a country’s CO2 emissions peak and decline naturally as it develops, and therefore that climate ‘concessions’ would not restrain China’s development.

This led to Xi’s Yingtai evening chat with Barack Obama, and the deal that made Paris possible.

Xie Zhenhua and US negotiator John Kerry have replicated the formula this month in advance of COP28 in Dubai, calling for a tripling of renewable energy by 2030, as well as carbon capture. It will not be easy for the carbon cartel to sabotage COP28 by turning it into a fight between the West and the rest.

The concept of ‘concessions’ is in any case jejune. China itself is at the sharp end of a ‘two degree’ world. The water towers of Tibet are heating twice as fast as global mean temperatures. Melting glaciers are causing spring floods followed by droughts. The aquifers of the North China plain are drying up.

Xi seeks global supremacy. He was never going to let climate worries alone hold back China’s rise. But today the two are in perfect alignment. Clean-tech has become the spearhead of China’s global economic conquest, and this changes the thrust of Beijing’s climate diplomacy.

It is no longer possible for footdraggers to hide behind China. As Chinese emissions roll over and go into freefall, Xi will become an even bigger problem for them than Western preachers.

As for those in Europe who think that a carbon border tax can protect the car industry against imports of cheap Chinese EVs, they delude themselves.

China’s battery king CATL will be making lithium-ion batteries at a zero-carbon gigafactory in Sichuan before Germany is anywhere close. The shoe could be on the other foot.

Whatever way you look at it, peak CO2 emissions in China is a watershed moment for global geopolitics, and for humanity.

Telegraph, London


but picture says china bad?

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

crepeface posted:

Bad news for the world! - China seeks global supremacy and won't allow climate worries to hold back the regime's economic conquest.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/china-s-green-surge-could-be-a-watershed-moment-for-the-world-20231122-p5elt1.html

quote:

China’s green surge could be a watershed moment for the world
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
November 23, 2023 — 3.35pm

China’s carbon emissions have either peaked already or will do this winter, seven years ahead of schedule. They may plateau for a year or two but will then go into exponential decline for mechanical and unstoppable reasons.

The country’s target of net-zero by 2060 is likely to be achieved a decade earlier than previously assumed, and perhaps earlier than in Europe.

This is a remarkable turn of events. Xi Jinping has made a giant strategic and economic bet on clean-tech dominance, aiming to corner the world’s renewable market and to break dependency on sea-borne energy supplies running through the US 7th Fleet.

The International Energy Agency says China accounts for 60 per cent of all new solar and wind power being installed across the world this year and next. This rollout has combined with a drastic slowdown in China’s rate of economic trend growth and the exhaustion of its Ponzi style property model.

Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, says China has reached a structural tipping point where the rollout of renewables is outpacing the rise in electricity demand.

“A drop in power-sector emissions in 2024 is essentially locked in. We’re likely to see a fall in total CO2 emitted in the first half of next year,” he said.

China is building a gargantuan network of “clean energy bases” in the Gobi, Ordos, and Tengger deserts, and further across the arid wastelands of the northwest. Solar and wind parks run along an arc from Inner Mongolia to Qinghai on the Tibetan plateau.

The electricity will reach the cities of industrial China through ultra-high voltage cables, which cut transition losses to 3.5 per cent per 1000 kilometres.

The scale is staggering. The Golmud Solar Park in Qinghai is already the world’s largest solar project with 2.8 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity, drawing on seven million panels stretching across the sands. The plan is to enlarge it six-fold within five years.

The regime is approving two new coal plants a week. It does not mean what many in the West think it means. China is adding one GW of coal power on average as back-up for every six GW of new renewable power. The two go hand in hand.

“The more renewable energy used, the more the need for coal peaking capacity. A large number of coal power units will be idle,” says Chinese coal expert Li Ting.

The coal plants will be used to buttress wind and solar rather than as baseload, and to avert a repeat of blackouts that traumatised the Chinese elites in 2021-2022.

Coal companies will be paid a subsidy under a capacity price mechanism unveiled earlier this month to keep reserve power. S&P Global says the capacity usage rate will fall to 25 per cent over the next two decades.

The coal that is burned will increasingly come with carbon capture. The mining province of Shanxi has a project underway to turn CO2 into ‘gold’ by making carbon nanotubes, which boost the power of lithium-ion batteries in EVs.

Myllyvirta said the spike in Chinese emissions over the last two years is an anomaly caused by hydropower cuts following droughts. La Niña is now refilling the reservoirs of the Great Snowy Mountains and Tibet.

Putin’s war in Ukraine also led to a surge in coal use after liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices went through the roof. That episode is fading. China’s LNG imports were up 30 per cent in October from a year ago.

At the risk of overtaxing the reader’s appetite for figures, it is worth spelling out the enormity of what China is doing. The China Electricity Council says the country will add 210 GW of solar this year, twice the entire solar capacity installed in the US to date.

It is not going to stop there. Carbon Brief says China’s output of solar panels was 310 GW in 2022; it will be 500 GW in 2023; and 1000 GW in 2025 – four times the total installation of new solar worldwide last year.

China is undoubtedly getting over its skis. The grid cannot yet absorb so much renewable power. Curtailment is a chronic problem. But it is equally obvious that China will not let that stand in the way. The grid will catch up.

The ramp up of battery capacity is even steeper: 550 GWh in 2022; 800 GWh in 2023, and 3,000 in 2025. That will alleviate the shorter end of intermittency.

The point to remember about Xi is that he was green long before it became fashionable. He wrote a weekly column twenty years ago as Zhejiang party chief warning that China’s “energy-intensive and high-polluting” economic model was unsustainable.

He defied the orthodoxy of break-neck industrialisation and GDP worship, launching a radical ‘Green GDP’ programme in Zhejiang in 2004. It called on local governments to subtract ecological damage from the raw GDP figures.


He was defeated by vested interests, one reason why he has been careful not to force a showdown too soon with China’s powerful coal lobby. He is circumventing them instead by giving renewable companies priority access to cheap credit from the state-controlled banks.

The brains behind the Green GDP movement was Xie Zhenhua, today China’s climate negotiator and the man who paved the way for the Paris climate accord.

He helped Xi overcome entrenched opposition from China’s old guard by using a Kuznets Curve to show that a country’s CO2 emissions peak and decline naturally as it develops, and therefore that climate ‘concessions’ would not restrain China’s development.

This led to Xi’s Yingtai evening chat with Barack Obama, and the deal that made Paris possible.

Xie Zhenhua and US negotiator John Kerry have replicated the formula this month in advance of COP28 in Dubai, calling for a tripling of renewable energy by 2030, as well as carbon capture. It will not be easy for the carbon cartel to sabotage COP28 by turning it into a fight between the West and the rest.

The concept of ‘concessions’ is in any case jejune. China itself is at the sharp end of a ‘two degree’ world. The water towers of Tibet are heating twice as fast as global mean temperatures. Melting glaciers are causing spring floods followed by droughts. The aquifers of the North China plain are drying up.

Xi seeks global supremacy. He was never going to let climate worries alone hold back China’s rise. But today the two are in perfect alignment. Clean-tech has become the spearhead of China’s global economic conquest, and this changes the thrust of Beijing’s climate diplomacy.

It is no longer possible for footdraggers to hide behind China. As Chinese emissions roll over and go into freefall, Xi will become an even bigger problem for them than Western preachers.

As for those in Europe who think that a carbon border tax can protect the car industry against imports of cheap Chinese EVs, they delude themselves.

China’s battery king CATL will be making lithium-ion batteries at a zero-carbon gigafactory in Sichuan before Germany is anywhere close. The shoe could be on the other foot.

Whatever way you look at it, peak CO2 emissions in China is a watershed moment for global geopolitics, and for humanity.

Telegraph, London

please just quote these things, this sucks to read

kater
Nov 16, 2010

crepeface posted:

Bad news for the world! - China seeks global supremacy and won't allow climate worries to hold back the regime's economic conquest.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/china-s-green-surge-could-be-a-watershed-moment-for-the-world-20231122-p5elt1.html

China’s green surge could be a watershed moment for the world
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
November 23, 2023 — 3.35pm

China’s carbon emissions have either peaked already or will do this winter, seven years ahead of schedule. They may plateau for a year or two but will then go into exponential decline for mechanical and unstoppable reasons.

The country’s target of net-zero by 2060 is likely to be achieved a decade earlier than previously assumed, and perhaps earlier than in Europe.

This is a remarkable turn of events. Xi Jinping has made a giant strategic and economic bet on clean-tech dominance, aiming to corner the world’s renewable market and to break dependency on sea-borne energy supplies running through the US 7th Fleet.

The International Energy Agency says China accounts for 60 per cent of all new solar and wind power being installed across the world this year and next. This rollout has combined with a drastic slowdown in China’s rate of economic trend growth and the exhaustion of its Ponzi style property model.

Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, says China has reached a structural tipping point where the rollout of renewables is outpacing the rise in electricity demand.

“A drop in power-sector emissions in 2024 is essentially locked in. We’re likely to see a fall in total CO2 emitted in the first half of next year,” he said.

China is building a gargantuan network of “clean energy bases” in the Gobi, Ordos, and Tengger deserts, and further across the arid wastelands of the northwest. Solar and wind parks run along an arc from Inner Mongolia to Qinghai on the Tibetan plateau.

The electricity will reach the cities of industrial China through ultra-high voltage cables, which cut transition losses to 3.5 per cent per 1000 kilometres.

The scale is staggering. The Golmud Solar Park in Qinghai is already the world’s largest solar project with 2.8 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity, drawing on seven million panels stretching across the sands. The plan is to enlarge it six-fold within five years.

The regime is approving two new coal plants a week. It does not mean what many in the West think it means. China is adding one GW of coal power on average as back-up for every six GW of new renewable power. The two go hand in hand.

“The more renewable energy used, the more the need for coal peaking capacity. A large number of coal power units will be idle,” says Chinese coal expert Li Ting.

The coal plants will be used to buttress wind and solar rather than as baseload, and to avert a repeat of blackouts that traumatised the Chinese elites in 2021-2022.

Coal companies will be paid a subsidy under a capacity price mechanism unveiled earlier this month to keep reserve power. S&P Global says the capacity usage rate will fall to 25 per cent over the next two decades.

The coal that is burned will increasingly come with carbon capture. The mining province of Shanxi has a project underway to turn CO2 into ‘gold’ by making carbon nanotubes, which boost the power of lithium-ion batteries in EVs.

Myllyvirta said the spike in Chinese emissions over the last two years is an anomaly caused by hydropower cuts following droughts. La Niña is now refilling the reservoirs of the Great Snowy Mountains and Tibet.

Putin’s war in Ukraine also led to a surge in coal use after liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices went through the roof. That episode is fading. China’s LNG imports were up 30 per cent in October from a year ago.

At the risk of overtaxing the reader’s appetite for figures, it is worth spelling out the enormity of what China is doing. The China Electricity Council says the country will add 210 GW of solar this year, twice the entire solar capacity installed in the US to date.

It is not going to stop there. Carbon Brief says China’s output of solar panels was 310 GW in 2022; it will be 500 GW in 2023; and 1000 GW in 2025 – four times the total installation of new solar worldwide last year.

China is undoubtedly getting over its skis. The grid cannot yet absorb so much renewable power. Curtailment is a chronic problem. But it is equally obvious that China will not let that stand in the way. The grid will catch up.

The ramp up of battery capacity is even steeper: 550 GWh in 2022; 800 GWh in 2023, and 3,000 in 2025. That will alleviate the shorter end of intermittency.

The point to remember about Xi is that he was green long before it became fashionable. He wrote a weekly column twenty years ago as Zhejiang party chief warning that China’s “energy-intensive and high-polluting” economic model was unsustainable.

He defied the orthodoxy of break-neck industrialisation and GDP worship, launching a radical ‘Green GDP’ programme in Zhejiang in 2004. It called on local governments to subtract ecological damage from the raw GDP figures.


He was defeated by vested interests, one reason why he has been careful not to force a showdown too soon with China’s powerful coal lobby. He is circumventing them instead by giving renewable companies priority access to cheap credit from the state-controlled banks.

The brains behind the Green GDP movement was Xie Zhenhua, today China’s climate negotiator and the man who paved the way for the Paris climate accord.

He helped Xi overcome entrenched opposition from China’s old guard by using a Kuznets Curve to show that a country’s CO2 emissions peak and decline naturally as it develops, and therefore that climate ‘concessions’ would not restrain China’s development.

This led to Xi’s Yingtai evening chat with Barack Obama, and the deal that made Paris possible.

Xie Zhenhua and US negotiator John Kerry have replicated the formula this month in advance of COP28 in Dubai, calling for a tripling of renewable energy by 2030, as well as carbon capture. It will not be easy for the carbon cartel to sabotage COP28 by turning it into a fight between the West and the rest.

The concept of ‘concessions’ is in any case jejune. China itself is at the sharp end of a ‘two degree’ world. The water towers of Tibet are heating twice as fast as global mean temperatures. Melting glaciers are causing spring floods followed by droughts. The aquifers of the North China plain are drying up.

Xi seeks global supremacy. He was never going to let climate worries alone hold back China’s rise. But today the two are in perfect alignment. Clean-tech has become the spearhead of China’s global economic conquest, and this changes the thrust of Beijing’s climate diplomacy.

It is no longer possible for footdraggers to hide behind China. As Chinese emissions roll over and go into freefall, Xi will become an even bigger problem for them than Western preachers.

As for those in Europe who think that a carbon border tax can protect the car industry against imports of cheap Chinese EVs, they delude themselves.

China’s battery king CATL will be making lithium-ion batteries at a zero-carbon gigafactory in Sichuan before Germany is anywhere close. The shoe could be on the other foot.

Whatever way you look at it, peak CO2 emissions in China is a watershed moment for global geopolitics, and for humanity.

Telegraph, London

whatever way you look at it, peak co2 emissions in China is a watershed moment for global geopolitics, and for humanity

Actuary X
Jul 20, 2007

Not really the best actuary in the world.
The good news is that carbon emissions will decrease, after the human population collapse

Argentum
Feb 6, 2011
UGLY LIKE BOWEL CANCER
decarbonization will come, no matter what, and i think thats really beautiful to think about

Owlbear Camus
Jan 3, 2013

Maybe this guy that flies is just sort of passing through, you know?



on a long enough timeline we don't really have to worry about any elements at all

Skaffen-Amtiskaw
Jun 24, 2023

So, we saved the biosphere, right?

Car Hater
May 7, 2007

wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!

Actuary X posted:

The good news is that carbon emissions will decrease, after the human population collapse

We'll set the rest of the coal traps on fire on our water out, just to spite the tardigrades

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

mawarannahr posted:

please just quote these things, this sucks to read

lol, i usually do but i was copying fizzy's bit.

TehSaurus
Jun 12, 2006

New goal: gently caress the atmosphere so hard that even the fires suffocate

Skaffen-Amtiskaw
Jun 24, 2023

TehSaurus posted:

New goal: gently caress the atmosphere so hard that even the fires suffocate

Harder, daddy. Get those carbons out there.

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
Horny is prohibited, even in the face of biosphere collapse.

The Demilich
Apr 9, 2020

The First Rites of Men Were Mortuary, the First Altars Tombs.



Betting horny? In this economy!?!?

SixteenShells
Sep 30, 2021
We burned down all the trees, it's No Nuts November

actionjackson
Jan 12, 2003


one of the coolest pictures ever (despite what it's actually showing)

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

centralia chat led me down a rabbit hole and now i seriously wanna go on this historic coal mine tour: https://www.pioneertunnel.com/services-1

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

MightyBigMinus posted:

centralia chat led me down a rabbit hole and now i seriously wanna go on this historic coal mine tour: https://www.pioneertunnel.com/services-1



I’ve been on that tour and it rules, there are a number of underground coal mine tours around that area. always pretty anti-coal company too

OIL PANIC
Dec 22, 2022

CAUTIONS
...
4. ... (If the battery is exhausted, the display of the liquid crystal will become vague and difficult to look at.)
...
7. Do not use volatile oils such as thinner or benzine and alcohol for wiping.
be sure to give us a trip report after you visit the frontline of the battle for the biosphere.

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice

Owlbear Camus posted:

on a long enough timeline we don't really have to worry about any elements at all

I’m tired of carbon, I think it’s time we start worrying about beryllium.

BRJurgis
Aug 15, 2007

Well I hear the thunder roll, I feel the cold winds blowing...
But you won't find me there, 'cause I won't go back again...
While you're on smoky roads, I'll be out in the sun...
Where the trees still grow, where they count by one...

Stereotype posted:

I’m tired of carbon, I think it’s time we start worrying about beryllium.

Well is it a gelatinous cylinder, or home-made?

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

OIL PANIC posted:

be sure to give us a trip report after you visit the frontline of the battle for the biosphere.

it's called burning man and it already happened here in this forum.

swamp thong
Nov 6, 2023
getting close to the end of the mass extinctions book,. gonna read vollmann's climate change stuff after. A++ thank you thread

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

TehSaurus posted:

New goal: gently caress the atmosphere so hard that even the fires suffocate
Buddy,

bl1ndsight
Jun 29, 2023

by VideoGames

lol

an actual frog
Mar 1, 2007


HEH, HEH, HEH!
Hmm, that seems bad

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

an actual frog posted:

Hmm, that seems bad



lol

cash crab
Apr 5, 2015

all the time i am eating from the trashcan. the name of this trashcan is ideology


an actual frog posted:

Hmm, that seems bad



Lmaooo

The Vinja Ninja
Mar 16, 2006

Sometimes, time beats you.

Twigand Berries posted:

but picture says china bad?

Yeah but its counting all Carbon by weight, not CO2 Emissions.

so its a bad graph that is designed to lie with honesty.

They are counting heavy ash as equals with carbon dioxide.

Thorn Wishes Talon
Oct 18, 2014

by Fluffdaddy
you're right, heavy ash is actually good

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

The Vinja Ninja posted:

Yeah but its counting all Carbon by weight, not CO2 Emissions.

so its a bad graph that is designed to lie with honesty.

They are counting heavy ash as equals with carbon dioxide.

is it really doing that? using carbon instead of co2 isn’t that uncommon of a way to measure global warming emissions (it does make it confusing to convert between the two)

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

an actual frog posted:

Hmm, that seems bad





:kiddo:

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

Twigand Berries posted:

but picture says china bad?

not sure if this is serious, but you know what 'peak' means right?

also, last figures i saw for cumulative emissions still had the US #1. they polluted their way to being the hegemon so they could offshore all their manufacturing to places like china, who still somehow managed to have half the annual per capita emissions and contribute 25% of total global forest planted in the last 70 years.

The Vinja Ninja posted:

Yeah but its counting all Carbon by weight, not CO2 Emissions.

so its a bad graph that is designed to lie with honesty.

They are counting heavy ash as equals with carbon dioxide.

the graph says CO2 emissions from fossil fuels only? so no farting cows

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Microplastics
Jul 6, 2007

:discourse:
It's what's for dinner.

an actual frog posted:

Hmm, that seems bad


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