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Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Anderson Koopa posted:

I managed to get the Bills into the playoffs. I was trying to get the Patriots in, but didn't have any luck :sicko:. The Patriots are essentially eliminated.

I found a way.

Set to defensive rank wins, change Patriots > Chiefs and Jaguars > Titans in week 17 will get the Pats in as the 7th seed

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/factor/defrank/results/401547608~1~401547652~2~401547645~1~401547235~1

and if you set the Browns to lose out as well you can knock them out for the Texans and keep the Pats in, wooo).

Kalli fucked around with this message at 23:46 on Nov 27, 2023

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Papercut
Aug 24, 2005

Kalli posted:

Watching this footwork Bryce is about 2/3rds of the way to a Mac Jones

https://twitter.com/WinksTape/status/1729193757168574909

Lmao wtf

Anderson Koopa
Jun 9, 2006


Kalli posted:

I found a way.

Set to defensive rank wins, change Patriots > Chiefs and Jaguars > Titans in week 17 will get the Pats in as the 7th seed

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/factor/defrank/results/401547608~1~401547652~2~401547645~1~401547235~1

and if you set the Browns to lose out as well you can knock them out for the Texans and keep the Pats in, wooo).

Thank you for that, so you're saying that there is a chance.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Anderson Koopa posted:

Thank you for that, so you're saying that there is a chance.

I sure hope not.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Number19 posted:

Been playing around with the playoff machine and after this week, there's no realistic path to the playoffs for Buffalo. Their most realistic path left is to win the division by winning one more game than the Dolphins down the stretch and then beating the Dolphins in Miami in Week 17.

There are some other paths but they are very convoluted and require a lot of other teams in the hunt to lose games they are probably going to win.

The Bills need a lot of help now and the odds look really bad for them to get it.

If you're looking for some reasons for faint hope:

- they have a bye now, and could theoretically fine-tune the offense further post Dorsey-firing

- they head to Arrowhead off the bye, with the Chiefs going there after SNF at Lambeau, so possible rest edge

- that same week is Philly @ Dallas, and the following week is Dallas @ Buffalo. If Dallas wins vPhi there's the possibility of the letdown follow-up game. If Dallas loses there's the possibility of internal strife.

Then it's two games in which they'll like be favored (@S.D, vN.E) before the finale versus Miami. Miami finishes the season with vDal, @Bal, vBuf, so they could be entering Week 18 on a two-game skid.

Miami's other 3 games are @Was, vTen, and vNYJ. Any Given Sunday means going 2-1 is quite feasible.

So the summary would be;

- Buffalo splits @K.C. & vDal;
- Buffalo wins @S.D. & vN.E.;
- Miami drops at least 1 of @Was, vTen, vNYJ;
- Miami loses both vDal & @Bal;
- Week 18 is now a 'Buffalo clinches AFCE with a win'.

Obviously you could move Miami's losses around, the main thing is that they lose 2 more games than Buffalo in the Week 13 - Week 17 stretch, with Buffalo winning a minimum of 2 of their own games in that same period.

Agreed that to earn a WC spot they will need some help from underdogs in other games. They lose the H2H versus Denver, and the SoS down the stretch means Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Indy, Denver, and Houston all have a bunch of winnable games. But every single one of those teams has looked godawful at different points of the season, so 3+ of them falling flat on their face isn't too absurd a proposition.

You want to know what is absurd?

Buffalo is currently 6-6 with a +101 point differential. So their net record is 0 despite the +101 in points.

In terms of W-L, they are behind 9 squads in the AFC.

6 of those 9 clubs are the 8-3 Jaguars, 7-4 Steelers, 7-4 Browns, 6-5 Colts, 6-5 Texans, and 6-5 Broncos.

Those 6 clubs currently have a net record of +14 wins, and a point differential of only +30!

It's a funny sport.

Gully Foyle
Feb 29, 2008

Number19 posted:

Been playing around with the playoff machine and after this week, there's no realistic path to the playoffs for Buffalo. Their most realistic path left is to win the division by winning one more game than the Dolphins down the stretch and then beating the Dolphins in Miami in Week 17.

There are some other paths but they are very convoluted and require a lot of other teams in the hunt to lose games they are probably going to win.

The Bills need a lot of help now and the odds look really bad for them to get it.

I mean, their most realistic path is to go on a tear and finish 11-6. Likely? Not at all, but I don't think you'd have to worry too much about 3 other teams being at 11-6 or better for the wildcard race.

Normally 10-7 is enough, but they are probably gonna lose every tiebreaker with already having 5 in conference losses. And they have head to head losses for tiebreakers involving Bengals, Broncos, or Jags - Broncos being the most likely problem since the Bengals probably won't get there and the Jags are likely not a wildcard team.

Just checked, and Steelers/Browns/Texans/Colts all have only 3 conference losses so far, so they are all well ahead of the Bills for tiebreaker scenarios. And as I said, Broncos are beating them from the head-to-head result. So they have to claim a wildcard cleanly, since they aren't likely to win any tiebreaker. Maybe some weird 3-way tie result could let them in, but those are difficult to parse.

Gully Foyle fucked around with this message at 00:04 on Nov 28, 2023

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

Woozie66 posted:

So you're saying it's the fault of literally all 10 other players? He called the correct protection and told the receivers what to do, but literally none of them did it correctly? Or is it more likely that he didnt do that?

Dunno about the receivers but he absolutely called the protection to the OL

Amy Pole Her
Jun 17, 2002
Have they said one way or the other?

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

Amy Pole Her posted:

Have they said one way or the other?

In typical Justin fashion he blamed himself for the entire loss

Docjowles
Apr 9, 2009


Seriously this is some dad playing Thanksgiving backyard football poo poo. It’s so lackadaisical and sloppy. Even the play fake is a joke

Mega64
May 23, 2008

I took the octopath less travelered,

And it made one-eighth the difference.

kalensc posted:

You want to know what is absurd?

Buffalo is currently 6-6 with a +101 point differential. So their net record is 0 despite the +101 in points.

In terms of W-L, they are behind 9 squads in the AFC.

6 of those 9 clubs are the 8-3 Jaguars, 7-4 Steelers, 7-4 Browns, 6-5 Colts, 6-5 Texans, and 6-5 Broncos.

Those 6 clubs currently have a net record of +14 wins, and a point differential of only +30!

It's a funny sport.

So basically they blow out bad teams but struggle against good teams.

They really are the AFC Cowboys, just without the rings.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Mega64 posted:

So basically they blow out bad teams but struggle against good teams.

They really are the AFC Cowboys, just without the rings.

Bills results by MoV

34 Football Team
28 Raiders
28 Dolphins
26 Jets
6 Buccaneers
5 Giants
-2 Broncos
-3 Eagles
-4 Patriots
-5 Jaguars
-6 Bengals
-6 Jets

Top 3 were weeks 2-4, so really outside of pantsing the Jets, which big whoop, they've been a bad team since October started.

Meanwhile the Cowboys:

40 Giants
35 Football Team
32 Giants
35 Patriots
23 Rams
23 Panthers
20 Jets
3 Chargers
-5 Eagles
-12 Cardinals
-32 49ers

Wheras the Cowboys just butcher bad teams or get their lunch taken by the 49ers.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

a neat cape posted:

In typical Justin fashion he blamed himself for the entire loss

I love Herbert and want the best for him

Flikken
Oct 23, 2009

10,363 snaps and not a playoff win to show for it

Black Lighter posted:

Unfortunately, you need to roster a fullback in order to do that and too many cowards are afraid to do so

Use your backup center

BlindSite
Feb 8, 2009

Sorry to correct some dude named twink on twitter or whovever he is but guys need to be coming open or at least making their breaks at the top of your QBs drop, not after he's reached the top, set to throw and then while he has to move off platform away from rushers.

The offensive unit as a whole has been off schedule for the entire year. Bryce was told to slow his drop back because his receiver group is slow as poo poo and the route concepts are so slow developing. This offense has no tempo and no execution when someone does get open.

It needed wholesale change.

Number19
May 14, 2003

HOCKEY OWNS
FUCK YEAH


The Bills have ways to make the playoffs, but they can’t do it on their own anymore. Simply winning out doesn’t guarantee them a spot. Someone else has to gently caress up along the way. The good news is there’s lots of teams who could easily gently caress it up. The bad news is that the Bills have a really hard schedule and are very likely to gently caress it up themselves.

Such a strange team this year. I’m not a huge Bills fan or anything but they’ve been fun lately and they feel like the reverse Vikings from last year: they’re losing all the coin flips. What can you do? Any given Sunday and all that poo poo. Football is a weird sport with low sample sizes.

sharknado slashfic
Jun 24, 2011

BlindSite posted:

Sorry to correct some dude named twink on twitter or whovever he is but guys need to be coming open or at least making their breaks at the top of your QBs drop, not after he's reached the top, set to throw and then while he has to move off platform away from rushers.

The offensive unit as a whole has been off schedule for the entire year. Bryce was told to slow his drop back because his receiver group is slow as poo poo and the route concepts are so slow developing. This offense has no tempo and no execution when someone does get open.

It needed wholesale change.

It looks really funny

Hamhandler
Aug 9, 2008

[I want to] shit in your fucking mouth. [I'm going to] slap your fucking mouth. [I'm going to] slap your real mother across the face [laughter]. Fuck you, you're still a rookie. I'll kill you.

a neat cape posted:

Somehow this is Herbert's fault. After calling out the correct protection. Having 1.5 seconds to throw the ball. Where no WRs turned around. While Ekeler ignored him and stayed on the right side.

If it makes you feel better it's probably half Keenan Allen's fault. The defense can always send more rushers than you have blockers, and sometimes it's explicitly the quarterback's job to negate the free rusher by throwing quickly or evading. Herbert needed to do something to evade the free rusher he should see coming, and I don't think the answer was moving the back because then the free rusher would be coming from his blind side. Allen doesn't really help matters much by not getting off of the coverage, but six yards with that timing is rough.

I'm 99% sure that the issue isn't Ekeler blowing the protection scheme, but if it was it's still Herbert's fault- call a loving timeout, don't just run the play.

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

Hamhandler posted:

If it makes you feel better it's probably half Keenan Allen's fault. The defense can always send more rushers than you have blockers, and sometimes it's explicitly the quarterback's job to negate the free rusher by throwing quickly or evading. Herbert needed to do something to evade the free rusher he should see coming, and I don't think the answer was moving the back because then the free rusher would be coming from his blind side. Allen doesn't really help matters much by not getting off of the coverage, but six yards with that timing is rough.

I'm 99% sure that the issue isn't Ekeler blowing the protection scheme, but if it was it's still Herbert's fault- call a loving timeout, don't just run the play.

I also don't want to come off like Herbert is totally flawless and without blame. He's got flaws (Like every NFL player). He holds onto the ball for too long and focuses in on Keenan way too often. Sometimes he'll go through progressions too fast before routes can develop.

And you're right, they probably should have called a timeout there.

AndrewP
Apr 21, 2010

I think Mike Macdonald just called a defensive play that was designed to be hard to pick up. I mean they had Broderick Washington and 355 pound Michael Pierce dropping into coverage, it was definitely a deceptive design.

I'm not sure what Herbie would have seen to cause him to call a timeout that's any different than what the Ravens normally show

Hamhandler
Aug 9, 2008

[I want to] shit in your fucking mouth. [I'm going to] slap your fucking mouth. [I'm going to] slap your real mother across the face [laughter]. Fuck you, you're still a rookie. I'll kill you.
The transcripts are getting at what I was thinking

https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/what-chargers-said-loss-ravens-week-12-2023

quote:

On the fourth-and-6 on the final offensive possession:

"I think that we had an option route to [WR] Keenan [Allen]. I kind of told him pre-snap to get it out quick, to be able to run it. The nickel came and I didn't do a good enough of moving, getting off the spot and creating a lane to throw. We had kind of seen it, we knew that they were going to bring it, and we just didn't execute."

On if he could have changed the protection pre-snap on that play:

"I could have changed the protection. In hindsight, I would have loved to have blocked up with seven guys and get everyone in there and blocking. I thought I had time, it was a six-yard route. I have to do a better job of creating space and getting the ball out."

I don't know if the solution is adding more blockers, against a package like that they've almost certainly got checks so they're bringing an extra guy for every guy you block.

Borsche69
May 8, 2014

Hamhandler posted:

The transcripts are getting at what I was thinking

https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/what-chargers-said-loss-ravens-week-12-2023

I don't know if the solution is adding more blockers, against a package like that they've almost certainly got checks so they're bringing an extra guy for every guy you block.

yeah more blockers doesn't necessarily help, just the placement. two DTs are dropping out so now at least a center and a guard are kind of left with nothing to do. they're not magically gonna pull over on a CB blitz. its one of those where you need to move a TE/RB over if you want more blocking. otherwise you identify that guy as a blitzer and should have that WR's route open immediately. the problem just comes from when the DB blitzing would've been the one covering like the 3rd read or a longer route

D-LINK
Oct 1, 2007

I was talking to peachy Peach about kissy Kiss. He bought me a soda.
Here as a witness to the cowardly punt

Freaquency
May 10, 2007

"Yes I can hear you, I don't have ear cancer!"

If we’re contracting the Jets they need to contract the Bears too, to keep things even

OneMoreTime
Feb 20, 2011

*quack*


The Bears aren’t a real team and tonight’s win didn’t change my mind

Kirios
Jan 26, 2010




Man the Bears are garbage

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land




Bears, Vikings, and Falcons all suck

Shindragon
Jun 6, 2011

by Athanatos
That was a game. A good one?

Depends on how much you like clownball

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Shindragon posted:

That was a game.

Was it?

Relentlessboredomm
Oct 15, 2006

It's Sic Semper Tyrannis. You said, "Ever faithful terrible lizard."

OneMoreTime posted:

The Bears aren’t a real team and tonight’s win didn’t change my mind

trilljester
Dec 7, 2004

The People's Tight End.
Didn't watch MNF tonight. Was it as bad as the final score?

Borsche69
May 8, 2014

trilljester posted:

Didn't watch MNF tonight. Was it as bad as the final score?

it was as everyone could see

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



trilljester posted:

Didn't watch MNF tonight. Was it as bad as the final score?

It was awesome.

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Kalli posted:

It was awesome.

Ches Neckbeard
Dec 3, 2005

You're all garbage, back up the truck BACK IT UP!

trilljester posted:

Didn't watch MNF tonight. Was it as bad as the final score?

Dobbs had 4 picks and only 1 was really his fault

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


da bears

mllaneza
Apr 28, 2007

Veteran, Bermuda Triangle Expeditionary Force, 1993-1952




trilljester posted:

Didn't watch MNF tonight. Was it as bad as the final score?

If you hate defensive play, then yes.

Borsche69
May 8, 2014

mllaneza posted:

If you hate defensive play, then yes.

idk, i think that game was mostly offensive play

FizFashizzle
Mar 30, 2005







trilljester posted:

Didn't watch MNF tonight. Was it as bad as the final score?

Good lord I just read the rotoworld blurbs

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Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling
I opened my NFL scores app at like 8:30pm to check how the game was going, saw the first Bears drive was like 15 plays, 10 minutes for 36 yards and no points, chuckled heartily and watched something else.

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