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People talk about the theoretical reason for it, but that can be rather abstract or academic compared to real-life relationships between people in governments, in intelligence, in the respective militaries, and then also business and military industry business.
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Nov 28, 2023 20:11
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:People talk about the theoretical reason for it, but that can be rather abstract or academic compared to real-life relationships between people in governments, in intelligence, in the respective militaries, and then also business and military industry business. M_Gargantua posted:Fundraising and institutional inertia mostly.
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Nov 28, 2023 20:22
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Ryan Mcbeth on AI generated images and the "Gaza Armory" picture: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65jHMy72mF8
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Nov 28, 2023 20:29
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I'm not sure inertia is really a fair descriptor of the circumstances. Palestine isn't a viable alternative for the types of services and economic activity that Israel currently generates. There is also a major political risk to cutting Israel off. It's a country that has enjoyed immense popularity in the USA since it's founding. Both Soviet and American agencies were deeply interested in gaining a foothold in Israel during the cold war, a condition that allowed them to "play both sides" effectively to secure international aid and leverage in the UN. It's also a country that could very easily destabilize the ME even further, should it feel the need to, and likely conduct an effective war against just about all of it's neighbors (at least that is what was believed previously). It's a nuclear power, which definitively further skews the board in its favor when it comes to interacting with the International Community at large. The cost of no longer supporting israel could very well be a broader humanitarian crisis in the region through the onset of war or even further expanded conflicts, up to and including a nuclear exchange. The state of Israel has a lot of cards that it could potentially play, and likely would be forced to if the USA allowed the UN to follow through with some binding resolutions. In essence, disengaging from Israel would be a massively risky and complex process of the USA. Continuing to support them is becoming politically unpalpable, but the costs of doing so appear to be much less significant. So from the RealPolitik perspective you continue to do so. We are watching these circumstances shift before our very eyes though, so who knows what the future holds.
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Nov 28, 2023 20:36
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Grip it and rip it posted:
Not to be overly glib, but this is what I took inertia to mean. Much of the US/Israel relationship exists now because it existed yesterday and it would be difficult to change. So it stays in place, despite the many contradictions. Which is fine; there's plenty of geopolitical situations like that.
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Nov 28, 2023 20:43
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Grip it and rip it posted:The cost of no longer supporting israel could very well be a broader humanitarian crisis in the region through the onset of war or even further expanded conflicts, up to and including a nuclear exchange. The state of Israel has a lot of cards that it could potentially play, and likely would be forced to if the USA allowed the UN to follow through with some binding resolutions. What kind of binding resolution are you thinking about here? Something related to land Israel is occupying? What would Israel feel forced to do in that case do you think? (I know nothing of the various issues, am curious)
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Nov 28, 2023 21:24
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jaete posted:What kind of binding resolution are you thinking about here? Something related to land Israel is occupying? What would Israel feel forced to do in that case do you think? Presumably any sort of action to enforce UNSC Resolution 242
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Nov 28, 2023 21:29
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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America also won't turn on Israel (barring some drastic change) because they pour millions upon millions of dollar into campaign funds and PACs to buy political leverage and support.
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Nov 28, 2023 22:39
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bulletsponge13 posted:America also won't turn on Israel (barring some drastic change) because they pour millions upon millions of dollar into campaign funds and PACs to buy political leverage and support. It is possible that we're seeing the beginning of such a drastic change, though. Money is horribly overweight in US politics, but it's not literally the only thing that matters. If Netanyahu continues down this path of loudly disparaging both peace and the United States electorate, it's conceivable that he could make US politicians genuinely more scared of their own voters than they are of AIPAC.
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Nov 28, 2023 22:50
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raminasi posted:It is possible that we're seeing the beginning of such a drastic change, though. Money is horribly overweight in US politics, but it's not literally the only thing that matters. If Netanyahu continues down this path of loudly disparaging both peace and the United States electorate, it's conceivable that he could make US politicians genuinely more scared of their own voters than they are of AIPAC. our voters would have to hear about this, as in it would need broad coverage
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Nov 28, 2023 23:13
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Electric Wrigglies posted:You would have to go digging Didn't take too much digging! Thanks you and Pantless for cues. Israeli counterintelligence weakness a potential vulnerability: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/24/china-and-russia-are-spying-on-israel-to-steal-u-s-secrets-putin-netanyahu-xi-haifa-ashdod-iai-elbit/ Last year's concerns over dual use tech: https://breakingdefense.com/2022/09/white-house-pressuring-israel-to-cut-research-ties-with-china-over-dual-use-concerns/ Similar over high tech plane sales: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2000/apr/10/israel Is it right to think truly rampant, self-destructive egotism is a part of that problem? Like Bibi claiming he can "manage US," there seems to be this bullying self-centeredness endemic in their system that's got to be a real problem diplomatically, among all the other reasons we're looking in disapproval at their approach right now.
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Nov 28, 2023 23:18
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bulletsponge13 posted:The risk is a variable, depending on distance (Danger Close for most support fires is 600 meters; weapon systems, firing platforms, guidance [forward observers, GPS, etc], and geography). The general rule they gave us in OSUT was Danger Close fires have a 50% likelihood of hitting friendlies. It's >0.1% PI not 50% https://ndiastorage.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/ndia/2011/gunmissile/TuesdayBalding.pdf Not US but the way we conduct fire missions is if the point of impact is within a trigger distance x a multiplying factor depending on the gun target line, danger close procedures "may be used". The reality of terrain in Helmand is all engagements were within that distance but we never used DC procedures as it would increase collateral damage.
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Nov 28, 2023 23:38
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knox_harrington posted:It's >0.1% PI not 50% https://ndiastorage.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/ndia/2011/gunmissile/TuesdayBalding.pdf Not arguing, I promise- just elaborating. Thank you for sharing this. I didn't say that was the rule- just the rule we were taught in Infantry training in 2002 during Call For Fire class. That slide show is also dependent on proficient users, and is a part of a push to make Danger Close more reasonable, and relies on way, way too much to go right, in my experience. That's a focus on JTACs and Air delivered; a JTAC isn't always available, and FOs are not trained to the same level. It also seems focused on fixed Wing delivery, which is a slightly different beast than Rotary Wing slinging Hydra. Danger Close for precision guided munitions is different than dumb I've seen that slide show broken down in an article about changing the definition of Danger Close that was being passed around when I was being floated for FO school. I'm ok with it in theory for professionals, but I'm deeply uncomfortable with it considering most of the military aren't professionals. My bias also comes from having been in combat where the enemy got within dozens of meters, not hundreds, and of fighting in urban areas/civilian occupied areas. But I'm also a dumb Grunt, and fully own that with pride. E- what you shared is the adult version and correct, but my monkey mindset says it relies too much on individuals making decisions I don't trust. Using that method, the 30mm on the Apache is 70meters; they have a dispersion, and it's too reliant on everyone getting everything right for me; the anecdote shared was also being taught to boot rear end privates going directly to war. bulletsponge13 fucked around with this message at 00:13 on Nov 29, 2023 |
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Nov 28, 2023 23:54
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Danger... close? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Stc2POsig4
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Nov 29, 2023 00:23
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OK but I am a qualified forward observer (I was a reconnaissance patrols soldier in a job that also has strike capability), and I have called in combat fire missions within the trigger distance. Maybe don't understand your point, I'm not sure of a way to tell what risk assessment would have been made, much less that it would have been >50% probability of civilian casualties.
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Nov 29, 2023 04:26
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I should have been more clear- I wasn't saying that Danger Close was the cause, just something to consider. I don't think a military already on a decades long campaign of genocide and oppression with little to no consideration for civilian collateral in the past is going to make better decisions, particularly risk assessments for gunship runs, after suffering a massive surprise attack. I've explained my logic in why I think they take the bulk of the deaths in a previous post, and was speaking out of turn with some of the Danger Close comments, I'll admit. If I came across dickish, it was unintentional, I can just be read that way.
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Nov 29, 2023 05:33
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Grip it and rip it posted:Because they provide significant mid-east intel and also sell us information they learn about our peer competitors. The USA has deep pockets and will likely deal with any honest broker that's money motivated, because we have the deepest pockets. Presumably whatever the cost of these interactions are, US intelligence has decided they're worth it. Do you have any evidence that the Zionist government provides any useful “mid east intel” or sells us information about our peer competitors? What does that even mean, are you suggesting Israel is spying on China for us and it thus behooves us to arm them and ignore their crimes against humanity?
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Nov 29, 2023 08:23
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bulletsponge13 posted:America also won't turn on Israel (barring some drastic change) because they pour millions upon millions of dollar into campaign funds and PACs to buy political leverage and support. AIPAC proudly posts statistics about this every year, actually. The latest year with data on their funding strategy for US politicians even says “THE SINGLE MOST INFLUENTIAL BIG MONEY GROUP IN DEMOCRATIC ELECTORAL POLITICS.”, (which is a quote from a politico article) https://www.aipacpac.org BUUNNI fucked around with this message at 09:42 on Nov 29, 2023 |
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Nov 29, 2023 08:31
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BUUNNI posted:Do you have any evidence that the Zionist government provides any useful “mid east intel” or sells us information about our peer competitors? What does that even mean, are you suggesting Israel is spying on China for us and it thus behooves us to arm them and ignore their crimes against humanity? Whether or not it's the reality, I think that's part of the marketing pitch.
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Nov 29, 2023 08:37
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BUUNNI posted:Do you have any evidence that the Zionist government provides any useful “mid east intel” or sells us information about our peer competitors? What does that even mean, are you suggesting Israel is spying on China for us and it thus behooves us to arm them and ignore their crimes against humanity? israel has a vested interest in gathering regional intelligence for its own national security and an atypical role in the region, along with demonstrable expertise in electronic surveillance. idk about china, but i don't think it's way out in left field to expect that they can provide useful supplemental intelligence on states the US definitely cares about, such as the saudis and iran US foreign policy is generally happy to ignore human rights abuses when convenient (see, again, the saudis). IMO israel's only a weird case there because theirs attract outsize attention among the US populace for whatever assorted reasons (compared to say, azerbaijan's recent actions in nagorno-karabakh, despite a historically fairly vocal armenian diaspora community in the US). at some point i would expect policymakers to say "yknow, that supplemental intelligence aint that worth it, aint like we dont have our own  all up in the saudis' poo poo", but im apparently wrong there. maybe biden just appreciates bibi's shrewd political acumen that much that he just gotta hand it to em
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Nov 29, 2023 09:08
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:israel has a vested interest in gathering regional intelligence for its own national security and an atypical role in the region, along with demonstrable expertise in electronic surveillance. Why did the October attacks catch them completely by surprise then? If the Israeli government’s purported sophisticated electronic surveillance couldn’t detect what Hamas was up to during the lead-up to the attacks then how could they possible know what’s going on in other Middle Eastern countries? I think the intel relationship is probably the reverse- the US, along with weapons, funding, and training, also provides the vast majority of whatever intel Israel manages to get a hold of.
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Nov 29, 2023 09:36
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Israeli intelligence was for decades a bunch of thugs practicing wet work on old Germans and then applying those lessons on real or perceived enemies of Israel in a way that would make Russia blush. The legendary reputation mostly comes from actively not being investigated by western organizations and in fact being supported in their covering up, not that they could fool those orgs. People mistake not being held to account via the US nodding along to plausible deniability as Israel intelligence being some sort of top tier level organization free from complacency and hubris. This is not to say they don't have committed or competent people, just that their achievements are in line with a smallish nation doing things on a budget. The best intelligence that Israel has, is access to the awesome US C3I network and three letter orgs analysis.
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Nov 29, 2023 09:56
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In general I feel like members of the military should be pretty familiar with the idea of something that doesn't actually do what it says on the label, but institutionally everyone pretends it does because of fiscal incentives or just because that's what it's supposed to do. I think there's a reason the phrase 'all in on a busted flush' came to mind a while back when it comes to US support for Israel.
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Nov 29, 2023 12:43
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BUUNNI posted:Why did the October attacks catch them completely by surprise then? It did and it didn't. Numerous analysts were telling the higher ups that something was brewing, and Hamas was up to something involving the border area that they ended up crossing. The higher ups neglected to act on that info for whatever reason. You can have all the intelligence in the world telling you that something is coming, but it doesn't mean poo poo unless someone in the chain of command decides to act upon it. History is filled with examples of various intelligence agencies seeing warning signs or troop movements and sounding the alarm, only to be ignored till poo poo starts getting real.
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Nov 29, 2023 16:15
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I think that is one of the reasons parallels have been drawn with 9/11.
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Nov 29, 2023 16:20
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BUUNNI posted:Do you have any evidence that the Zionist government provides any useful “mid east intel” or sells us information about our peer competitors? What does that even mean, are you suggesting Israel is spying on China for us and it thus behooves us to arm them and ignore their crimes against humanity? Yes ze NOC list is in my safehouse.
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Nov 29, 2023 16:44
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https://imgur.com/a/pPwx2jf Can someone explain why Musk’s PC looks so hosed up here? I know they’re supposed to extend from just below the collarbone to just above the navel but something about this looks seriously off. Maybe it’s because he has the build of a sack of potatoes but he’s making Jared Kushner look like an ~operator~ from when he wore one in Iraq.
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Nov 29, 2023 16:49
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Handsome Ralph posted:It did and it didn't. Numerous analysts were telling the higher ups that something was brewing, and Hamas was up to something involving the border area that they ended up crossing. The higher ups neglected to act on that info for whatever reason. This sounds exactly like the genesis of the 9/11 conspiracy theories, which is to say complete BS. Why would any Israeli intel officer worth his salt disregard veritable reports that Hamas was going to mount a devastating attack? These guys receive the very best SIGINT and HUMINT training from the west's military apparatus. We ARE living in a post-9/11 world, after all. The logical conclusion of the claim that "Israel knew the attacks would happen but the higher ups just refused to do anything" would be that the entirety of the intel officer corps needs to be purged or Israel will suffer more attacks in the future. Sorry, but I just don't buy that narrative.
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Nov 29, 2023 16:54
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BUUNNI posted:This sounds exactly like the genesis of the 9/11 conspiracy theories, which is to say complete BS. Why would any Israeli intel officer worth his salt disregard veritable reports that Hamas was going to mount a devastating attack? These guys receive the very best SIGINT and HUMINT training from the west's military apparatus. We ARE living in a post-9/11 world, after all. uhh people gently caress up all the time? Like daily? Incompetence is about the simplest and most likely explanation I think anyone can or will provide about this situation.
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Nov 29, 2023 16:58
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BUUNNI posted:This sounds exactly like the genesis of the 9/11 conspiracy theories, which is to say complete BS. Why would any Israeli intel officer worth his salt disregard veritable reports that Hamas was going to mount a devastating attack? These guys receive the very best SIGINT and HUMINT training from the west's military apparatus. We ARE living in a post-9/11 world, after all.
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Nov 29, 2023 17:01
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pantslesswithwolves posted:https://imgur.com/a/pPwx2jf That looks about 3 sizes too small, I assume because he didn't want to carry heavy plates. It also looks like it's doubling as jelly roll warden, and he's got that weird frog shape body a la that time someone photo'd him shirtless getting hosed down on a yacht. None of these things are going to help... whatever is going on there.
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Nov 29, 2023 17:13
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Musk has a phenomenally strange chest shape so I assume it's to do with that.
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Nov 29, 2023 17:26
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pantslesswithwolves posted:https://imgur.com/a/pPwx2jf He's a giant fuckin dork.
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Nov 29, 2023 17:33
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Wrong size, worn too high
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Nov 29, 2023 17:37
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There's nothing underneath worth protecting
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Nov 29, 2023 17:50
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BUUNNI posted:This sounds exactly like the genesis of the 9/11 conspiracy theories, which is to say complete BS. Why would any Israeli intel officer worth his salt disregard veritable reports that Hamas was going to mount a devastating attack? These guys receive the very best SIGINT and HUMINT training from the west's military apparatus. We ARE living in a post-9/11 world, after all. In addition to simple incompetence, there was a political angle to downplaying the warnings. Maintaining Hamas as a low-level antagonist (in order to delegitimize the PA) is a key part of Netanyahu's political strategy. (This is something he's been documented saying, not a fringe theory.) "Hamas is planning something but it won't matter much in the grand scheme of things" is what the Israeli government wanted to hear, so that's what it heard. The reporting really reminded me of some of the descriptions of the leadup to the Iraq War, actually. (And there are voices within Israel wondering if the entire intelligence community needs purging. Predictably, the response is "now is not the time to discuss that.")
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Nov 29, 2023 18:16
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BUUNNI posted:This sounds exactly like the genesis of the 9/11 conspiracy theories, which is to say complete BS. Why would any Israeli intel officer worth his salt disregard veritable reports that Hamas was going to mount a devastating attack? These guys receive the very best SIGINT and HUMINT training from the west's military apparatus. We ARE living in a post-9/11 world, after all. You're not getting it. Intelligence analysis and reporting doesn't work that way. Analysts pass up intelligence and analysis to those that decide what to act on. They aren't decision makers. History is filled with examples of intelligence agencies and analysts telling decision makers something fucky is coming their way, only for the decision makers to do little or nothing for a variety of reasons. And I highly doubt the Israelis or anyone in the western intelligence community had a full picture of what was going to occur on 10/7 to begin with. You had a handful of analysts pointing out that Hamas seemed to be prepping for something and they seemed awfully interested in that part of the border. It's very rare that they get a full picture of whatever is coming, and even when something like that happens, the first question usually raised is "Are we only seeing this because our adversary wants us to, because they're trying to get us to make the wrong move?" It's not a failure of those analysts, it's a failure of the IDF higher ups and Netenyau et al for not acting on any of the information they were provided with.
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Nov 29, 2023 18:23
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I'd be very curious whether they ever conducted a meaningful red teaming of their stupid billion-dollar border wall. Alarms should have been blaring the moment they lost input on their sensors, but instead the border guards were caught sleeping.
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Nov 29, 2023 18:34
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Alright, I can definitely see your POV better and largely agree with it. It's just frustrating that after all the equipment, intel and training we provide for Israel's Defense Forces they still hosed everything up and now Palestinians are the ones paying most of the price. Thank you for the good discussion.
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Nov 29, 2023 18:36
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BUUNNI posted:It's just frustrating that after all the equipment, intel and training we provide for Israel's Defense Forces they still hosed everything up and now Palestinians are the ones paying most of the price. 
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Nov 29, 2023 18:57
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