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Also, weak and constantly-suppressed sovereignty in many Latin American states means that the folks who want to sell off their country to the highest international bidder will generally have a relatively easy time doing so.
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Nov 27, 2023 18:32
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Constant interference from entities with a lot of capital to ensure we are unstable so as to make people horribly discontent and uninformed such that theyre willing to elect a lunatic that hears his dogs soul channel Ayn Rand talk to him in Latinamerican Dialect, is also a bad thinf that tends to happen in El Pueblo Latino
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Nov 27, 2023 18:37
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ArfJason posted:Constant interference from entities with a lot of capital to ensure we are unstable so as to make people horribly discontent and uninformed such that theyre willing to elect a lunatic that hears his dogs soul channel Ayn Rand talk to him in Latinamerican Dialect, is also a bad thinf that tends to happen in El Pueblo Latino Also, those entities will use their capital to do their level best to make the Ayn Rand dog seance guy seem like a sensible, electable moderate if he gives them enough reason to believe he'll let them fill their boots when he gets in.
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Nov 27, 2023 18:40
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busalover posted:Is there any chance of seeing a resurgence of military dicatorships in places like Argentina and Chile? Or has the army been dismantled too much over the past decades to carry any weight? lmao, of course it's your second post in the thread. Let me guess, from the US? It's been funny seeing Milei images used as a meme by english speakers in non-political contetxs. On the other hand, there{s going to be a lot of eyes on Argentina when it crashes and burns this time, it's gonna be embarrasing. OTOH, if he gets inflation under three digits it may lead other countries to go "why don't we vote for our crazy guy", which would lead to intereting times, in the curse sense.
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Nov 27, 2023 19:08
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We just can't live without our dear Generalissimos
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Nov 27, 2023 19:49
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When I visited Chile, my feeling was that there were enough right-leaning politicians and voters who thought Pinochet did the right thing that I don't think the Chilean military would have to step in like it did in 1973. The left would just lose at the ballot box, just like they did earlier this year in the Constitutional Council elections. It wasn't like Allende was racking up authoritative margins the years leading up to the coup either. Chile had a pretty polarized and contentious political landscape. This is anecdotal evidence and I'm not a Chile scholar, so I'm ready to get schooled here. Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Nov 27, 2023 |
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Nov 27, 2023 20:14
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Over the last few days, Milei seems to be walking back or waffling a lot of his crazy. His finances person is a Macrista, which is makinga lot of his more hardcore fans bitch that he is not purging the old boring politics. Odds are he'll try to cover up his neoliberal establishment shift with one or two loud very visible policies to tole up the base. Hilariously, you also see several posts by public workers who voted for him wailing "You were supposed to fire the OTHER mooching government employees, not me!"
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Nov 28, 2023 13:02
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Sephyr posted:Odds are he'll try to cover up his neoliberal establishment shift with one or two loud very visible policies to tole up the base. Yeah, and maybe it will be his crusade against abortion It will be quite funny if the super crazy anarcho-capitalist guy gets into power and becomes just a bland good old fashioned neoliberal in the economy while being a radical reactionary on social issues
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Nov 28, 2023 13:11
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Elias_Maluco posted:Yeah, and maybe it will be his crusade against abortion TBF that's pretty much the dream, because when his opposition gets elected (and they will be, because things will be poo poo), it will have to spend precious political capital rolling back his reactionary non-sense instead of touching the economy in ways that could disrupt the crony capitalists behind the government.
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Nov 28, 2023 13:21
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Rigged Death Trap posted:In a word? I tried googling my way to what ails argentina but mostly just heard it was the fault of the welfare state, capital controls and such.
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Nov 28, 2023 13:52
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Rigged Death Trap posted:In a word? Argentina was one of the wealthiest countries in South America decades ago. 
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Nov 28, 2023 14:41
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Elias_Maluco posted:Yeah, and maybe it will be his crusade against abortion In the time it took for me to post that, Milei announced that he has just now....converted to Judaism. Which will make an anti-abortion crusade doubly ironic, but consistency was never a big deal for the chuds.
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Nov 28, 2023 14:50
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-20/amlo-s-mexicana-airline-has-no-jets-or-schedule-ahead-of-launch https://mexicobusiness.news/aerospace/news/mexicana-de-aviacions-inauguration-moved-dec-26-amlo AMLO's pet project airline isn't going so well. And will probably continue to bleed money for its entire existence along with his new airport nobody uses.
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Nov 28, 2023 15:13
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His Divine Shadow posted:I tried googling my way to what ails argentina but mostly just heard it was the fault of the welfare state, capital controls and such. Maybe there's at least some truth to all of that? A neoliberalist approach might prevent certain other things (like their generous welfare state and enormous government job force) from being sustainable. Generally, it seems like a big part of Argentinian history is a "curse of resources." When your country is so rich with commodities and the leaders do not wisely diversify from being a commodities seller and otherwise plan for downturns, you are especially vulnerable to the ebbs and flows of commodities pricing. I don't think it's a situation where just pressing the MORE SOCIALISM button fixes everything either.
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Nov 28, 2023 15:44
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i fly airplanes posted:Argentina was one of the wealthiest countries in South America decades ago. was it? looks like its growth has been below average for the region for nearly a century
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Nov 28, 2023 18:17
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lol https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-27/milei-s-conversion-to-judaism-seals-pro-israel-push-by-argentina?sref=vuYGislZ He really is trying to 1-up M*nem here.
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Nov 28, 2023 18:28
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i fly airplanes posted:Argentina was one of the wealthiest countries in South America decades ago. i say swears online posted:was it? looks like its growth has been below average for the region for nearly a century edit: here's better chart  So yeah, Argentina used to be quite well off, going by GDP per capita at least. Cicero fucked around with this message at 21:32 on Nov 28, 2023 |
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Nov 28, 2023 21:25
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Argentina was the richest country in the world, or top 3, around -1900. What happened then was grain prices and other commodities was way up. We looked at that, said “great”, and never pushed the economy beyond primary resources. Perón tried to lock down imports to incentivise local industry, but surprisingly that doesn’t work that well! The only success stories in argentina are non industrial players selling software. Mercado Libre fighting with Amazon in latam, Globant selling software to Fortune 50 companies, Wolox bought by accenture. With how cheap our labor is if we managed to process some of those grains and oil before exporting or whatever we’d be much better off. Chances of Milei getting any of that done? Ehhhhh….I’ll settle for simplifying the tax code and reducing part of the state. Edit disclaimer: i’m just a random guy, so please don’t take anything I say as an absolute truth Mr. Nemo fucked around with this message at 23:20 on Nov 28, 2023 |
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Nov 28, 2023 23:17
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https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1729891923043746048?s=46 Fears that Venezuela is going to invade Guyana.
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Nov 29, 2023 22:08
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If I'm reading correctly, the referendum is within Venezuela and boils down to "should we annex this resource rich neighboring region". The inhabitants of the region (Essequibo), of course, do not get a vote. AP article: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...BNZCnzaxB1uU9Ho
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Nov 29, 2023 22:41
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Google Jeb Bush posted:If I'm reading correctly, the referendum is within Venezuela and boils down to "should we annex this resource rich neighboring region". The inhabitants of the region (Essequibo), of course, do not get a vote. Maduro is learning from the best. The full text of the referendum questions, as translated by Wikipedia. quote:1. Do you agree to reject by all means in accordance with the law, the line fraudulently interposed by the 1899 Paris Arbitration Award, which seeks to deprive us of our Guayana Esequiba? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Venezuelan_referendum
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Nov 29, 2023 22:47
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is there actual strong revanchist sentiment in venezuela over the 125 year old colonialist apportionment that would make this a significantly popular move domestically? from an uniformed american perspective it seems a bit strange for the venzuelan government to be engaging with the us on sactions relief as the us is kind of giving up on removing maduro, only to then turn around and start a war of aggression that would kind of force washington to reharden their stance
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Nov 29, 2023 23:31
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I guess that would save the US the trouble of deciding whether the upcoming election smells legitimate. I doubt the Venezuelan army is in very good condition after the last decade of economic decay and people fleeing the country, even if they've been funneling what money they do have into the army, but I have no idea what the state of Guyana is like, it doesn't really come up on a lot of headlines.
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Nov 29, 2023 23:35
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SlothfulCobra posted:I guess that would save the US the trouble of deciding whether the upcoming election smells legitimate. I've seen a fair amount of hype about major oil discoveries of in Guyana's waters, but that's about it.
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Nov 30, 2023 00:40
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I doubt there's actually going to be an invasion. That said, the regime's propaganda channels are trying to stoke that revanchist sentiment with all their might. It's all referendum this and Esequibo that. For instance, this is the header image of VTV right now:  It says "ALL OF Venezuela" and "Vote 5 times YES"
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Nov 30, 2023 09:32
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Im glad Bolsonaro is not our president anymore, now he would be marching troops along the border and making threats. They were very excited with the idea of a war with Venezuela back than, this seems like a good excuse First of course someone would have to explain to him what and where is Guiana
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Nov 30, 2023 11:22
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Sooooo Milei has awarded the seat of Attorney General of Argentina to a *former* (cough cough) neonazi. And not, like, insult neonazi or garden-level chud, but "member of a nazi cell on pictures doing the sig heil with fellow nazis" grade nazi.
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Dec 2, 2023 01:24
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Sephyr posted:Sooooo Milei has awarded the seat of Attorney General of Argentina to a *former* (cough cough) neonazi.  Ok listen, I know this looks like a hitler youth meeting
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Dec 2, 2023 04:12
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i think i went to the bathroom during this part of oppenheimer
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Dec 2, 2023 04:15
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And of course the DAIA said he's perfectly fine because he said he was sorry! Unlike notorious antisemite Roger Waters  https://www.instagram.com/p/C0UouaspCt8/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
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Dec 2, 2023 04:27
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zoux posted:
what's with making the eagle look really stupid
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Dec 2, 2023 04:31
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Didn't he just convert to Judaism and also promise strong Israeli relations? Who's gonna tell him?
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Dec 2, 2023 09:24
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i fly airplanes posted:Didn't he just convert to Judaism and also promise strong Israeli relations? Who's gonna tell him? the circled guy is from a muslim family that converted to catholicism. many sides, many sides
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Dec 2, 2023 12:11
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Google Jeb Bush posted:what's with making the eagle look really stupid It's not an eagle, it's Donald Duck
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Dec 2, 2023 13:47
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Reading about the sabre rattling from Venezuela against the deadly threat posed by Guyana. Look, a couple of years I would have dismissed this as nothing serious but things have gotten too stupid and horrific with the current high profile conflicts in the world for me to just write this off. I don't really get the idea here, if Venezuela actually does attack wouldn't this give the United States a solid gold excuse to intervene themselves and overthrow Maduro or at least cripple his regime and the Venezuelan military?
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Dec 2, 2023 15:03
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I'm skeptical that it will actually amount to anything, but the logic for ignoring the possibility of US intervention would likely be that the US is heavily aiding two wars, recovering from a third, with an incredibly unpopular president that likely doesn't want a third simultaneous war going on, with unimpressive or unreliable results in recent years backing distant war allies [that are fighting against a peer army]. If you want to talk actual disincentives, Guyana has close relations to Brazil (including military cooperation), specifically Lula, and Venezuela & Brazil have themselves have close relations. Colombia and Venezuela have a bit more complicated relationship, and while a bilateral commitment between Guyana & Colombia was signed by the prior regime, Petro has no reason to freeze ties/support. In the current ideological climate, it's possible that Colombia or Brazil would provide solidarity with the other if one acted on responding to Venezuela's aggression. From a pragmatic standpoint, all involved countries are warming relations with China, and while China specifically has a policy of geopolitical non-intervention outside of Chinese matters, it would be in all four's best interest to have economical & political stability for deal negotiations. Venezuela's economy has recovered to pre-covid levels, and is currently seeing positive per-capita growth, while still being far from the massive peak of 2012. On top of rocking the boat being economically risky at a time where they don't need to, their situation allows low-pain economic concessions in the most dire scenario. The only worrying sign is that Military expenditures doubled from 2021 to 2022. Otherwise, I'd chalk it up to anticolonial-tinged revanchism for domestic support.
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Dec 3, 2023 01:47
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Invading Venezuela would be an absolute disaster and I'm pretty sure everyone sane knows it. I am completely unclear on what if any support would be offered to Guyana by whom. I think the argument that this is just dumb sabre rattling for domestic consumption holds water.
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Dec 3, 2023 02:14
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Venezuela (and Guyana) are completely unimportant to the US, both economically and politically. There is zero chance the US would send troops. If Venezuela invades, there would probably be a statement condemning it, and maybe some token money aid to Guyana, but probably not. Any real support would come from other South American nations.
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Dec 3, 2023 02:56
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exxon and chevron (through its recent acquisition of hess) are both heavily involved in guyana's offshore oil fields, which is the only reason this century old territorial dispute has taken on new relevance. the US absolutely cares.
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Dec 3, 2023 03:33
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It would be very funny if Venezuela launched one of the most obvious wars for oil since 2003
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Dec 3, 2023 03:34
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