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drk posted:Helion Energy, who recently partnered with Microsoft, claims they are expecting to deliver commercial electricity from fusion in 2028. This is second hand information I'm about to spew. I'm not a fusion research, but I have a couple friends who are physicists on various fusion projects and their take in the abstract is this: Helion is a bit of a meme and their claims are kinda hosed. They have a hard time hiring plasma physicists, because they generally can sniff that out. Their claims are extremely speculative and are based on hypothetical materials that *might* exist, but don't today. Chief among them is that their design by their own claim would require 40 Tesla magnets for sustained containment, and while such a thing does exist, it's a massive hybrid monolith - not something in the form factor or design they actually need. Last I looked, the actual strongest magnet that meets their design requirements puts out 13T. There are a pile of other claims they are making that range from 'suspicious' to 'bullshit', but while they can generate a reaction for a small bit of time (which is an impressive feat), their design does not actually scale to commercial production as it's predicated on materials that simply don't exist yet. --- Not to end this on a huge downer: Fusion is absolutely worth pursuing and major problems are being solved constantly. This list of problems is huge, but materials are getting better, and while the path toward D-D fusion is still a long ways away, that list of problems to solve is shrinking. Canine Blues Arooo fucked around with this message at 19:40 on Nov 21, 2023 |
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Nov 21, 2023 19:37
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Very interesting, thanks. Any opinion on Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS)? They also claim that they expect to have the "first" commercial fusion reactor coming, though they dont provide an exact timeline (which is probably a good sign if there are still a lot of problems to solve). Their demonstration reactor that is expected to produce net energy is under construction now and they are targeting starting work on the first commercial, net electricity reactor in 2025. Their technology seems to be a lot less speculative than Helion - its somewhat like a mini-ITER (a large fusion research reactor that has been in progress for decades). They also have several billion dollars in funding, including a lot of money from the DOE.
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Nov 21, 2023 20:02
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drk posted:Very interesting, thanks. I can ask around about them. This is me talking, and my knowledge about this subject is but a few ticks above layman at best, so pile of salt and all. Looking at their pitch here, it seems way more realistic. Their containment strategy is way more achievable and they seem to have actually maybe solved that problem - a huge deal for sure. A big problem with smaller designs is that containment system - Among the reasons for ITER-sized tokamaks is that you don't need as crazy of magnets to contain the reaction, but the economics of actually building such a massive donut are problematic - shrinking it down is desirable, but as you get smaller, your magnets must get stronger. CFS's smaller tokamak design does indeed seem to have the magnets it needs to make it real. There are still other tokamak problems to solve, but their design seems substantially more realistic to actually turn into a commercial project then Helion.
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Nov 21, 2023 20:36
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Are any other small modular fission reactors going to happen after nuscale axed their bit project?
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Nov 21, 2023 20:42
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Most actual fusion research is about nuclear weapon maintenance and modernization. The idea of getting power out of a fusion reactor is about as likely as battery powered airlines and is basically a scam if there are investors expecting returns
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Nov 21, 2023 20:57
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The Door Frame posted:Most actual fusion research is about nuclear weapon maintenance and modernization. The idea of getting power out of a fusion reactor is about as likely as battery powered airlines and is basically a scam if there are investors expecting returns This is the dumbest loving thing I've read for awhile. Lets briefly discuss why! The vast majority of actual research and work being done in the fusion space is around two things: Materials, and Fuel. On Fuel: The most likely source here is going to be Hydrogen, specifically Deuterium (D) and Tritium (T). T is what a weapon would use for it's fuel - it's requirements for a reaction are a lot lower then D and when you are dealing with a weapon, there is no compelling reason not to just use T. There is no 'modernization' that needs to be done here, and trying to use D as a fuel source is introducing a lot of new problems that have already been solved for no gains through the lens of a weapon. The problem with T though is that it's really, really rare. Now, if you are making weapons, you can create enough of it to make whatever you want, but when you are talking about a reactor as a power source, it's not a resource you can power the world with. T is easier to fuse and has looser requirements then D, but D is basically infinite in availability. A lot of the work being done on this front is trying to answer the question, 'How can we make a D-D reaction stable and viable'. This line of research does less then nothing for weapons and even a modern bomb has no interest in using D when T is way better for that purpose. Second is material: When people say, 'fusion research' they are usually actually talking about the materials around fusion. You have to answer questions like, 'How do we make magnets powerful enough to contain this reaction? How do we make those magents cold enough? How do we make it so our magnets actually work at temperatures that aren't basically a few degrees above absolute zero because it's really inconvenient when a 100,000,000 degree donut is a couple feet away?' The military application of this kind of magnet is basically 'none'. Outside of magnets, we have to answer questions like, 'What are we going to make the shell of the container out of? Right now, it's made out of a material so rare that you couldn't possibly manufacture these at scale, but it needs to withstand the incredible punishment of a fusion reaction that's but a couple feet away? How can we actually pull energy from this reaction?' The list goes on. --- The idea that 'durr fusion is weapons actually' holds no weight if you take more then a second to look at the problem space. Canine Blues Arooo fucked around with this message at 21:49 on Nov 21, 2023 |
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Nov 21, 2023 21:32
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Canine Blues Arooo posted:This is the dumbest loving thing I've read for awhile. Lets briefly discuss why! Let's just see what the actual money behind the project says... https://www.state.gov/briefings-foreign-press-centers/fusion-ignition-breakthrough posted:
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Nov 21, 2023 22:40
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NIF is one million percent a consequence of the comprehensive test ban treaty
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Nov 21, 2023 22:42
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It's a fig leaf to cover for nuclear weapons maintenance. Tons of scientific progress is made in the development of weapons, but at the end of the day, it's about bombs and pretending it's not is basically lying E: there is money to be made in weapons and Uncle Sam has a lot of money for weapons, so it could be a boring place to hold money, but anyone promising a return on investment from fusion power is scamming you The Door Frame fucked around with this message at 23:17 on Nov 21, 2023 |
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Nov 21, 2023 22:50
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Shear Modulus posted:Are any other small modular fission reactors going to happen after nuscale axed their bit project? SMR was the only company that had a design approved by the NRC, so at least in the short to medium terms, no. The Commission does note a few projects in development but that are still in the pre-application stages. It's all very disappointing. It doesn't look like any of these could possibly be built before 2030, and I suspect I'm being optimistic.
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Nov 22, 2023 01:26
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shame on an IGA posted:There's not a fusion reactor design within decades of Yeah sorry it was late and I misread fusion as fission and only skimmed the article
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Nov 22, 2023 01:37
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Bought another 33 shares of Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE) yesterday @$12.40/share. Youtube served me a couple of good videos on the rise and fall of Nortel Networks. Amazing quality when you look at the first videos this youtuber released back in the beginning. The Company That Broke Canada: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6xwMIUPHss&t=2s What Killed Canada's Biggest Company? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDdC3-LT7pM
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Nov 28, 2023 20:53
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rip munger https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/28/charlie-munger-investing-sage-and-warren-buffetts-confidant-dies.html
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Nov 28, 2023 22:08
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busalover posted:rip munger https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/28/charlie-munger-investing-sage-and-warren-buffetts-confidant-dies.html rip sweet prince https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWlXIJWPPtI&t=91s
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Nov 28, 2023 22:31
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He will forever be remembered by the students in his windowless prison dorm
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Nov 28, 2023 22:51
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1 part wise, 1 part evil, as described in the prior two posts. Another guy that coulda retired but preferred to die on the job. Berkshire should have Ted or their other investment heir do way more q&a at the annual meetings before Warren dies too.
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Nov 28, 2023 22:58
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ARTPUP posted:Bought another 33 shares of Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE) yesterday @$12.40/share. gently caress it. In for 1000 😅 All the damage has *probably* been done, right? Only upside remaining.
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Nov 29, 2023 23:45
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400 bucks to ride until jan 2025 for options? works for me. Rest of HE doesn't read too pretty for now, though. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4654148-hawaiian-electric-no-turnaround-in-sight Gonna go with a no until the selling takes a break because it doesn't look even remotely over yet notwithoutmyanus fucked around with this message at 02:02 on Nov 30, 2023 |
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Nov 30, 2023 01:25
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notwithoutmyanus posted:400 bucks to ride until jan 2025 for options? works for me. Interesting article - written by a student at the University of Michigan. Here's what I have: Hawaiian Electric Industries is a holding company: The utilities (Hawaiian Electric Company, Hawai'i Electric Light Company, Maui Electric Company) a "clean energy and sustainability company" (ugh) Pacific Current LLC, and a bank (American Savings Bank) The Bank (ASB) is not connected nor liable to the Maui fires in any way. I have a rough book value of $4.46/share on it alone. Wells Fargo Securities gives it $8/share and I've heard $11/share which is pretty unicorn but there it is. With regards to the Maui fire Hawaiian Electric released a statement on the timeline: https://www.hawaiianelectric.com/hawaiian-electric-provides-update-on-lahaina-fires-response Basically this: In August 2023 Hurricane Dora passed by the islands bringing with it 145mph winds. Power lines were blown down and started a brush fire at 6am. The Maui Fire Department arrived on the scene and the fire was "100% extinguished" with them leaving at 2pm. Hawaiian Electrical had shut off all the power at around 10am and it was kept off. At around 3pm the Hawaiian Electrical crew saw another fire (guy in bucket truck maybe?) and called 911. By the time the firetrucks arrived they were unable to control that fire. Power lines being knocked down due to hurricane winds is an act of god. Hawaiian Electrical did everything by the book. Also they had informed the police that the power was switched off on Lahainaluna road several times. Police "forgot" to relay this information to officers on the scene and they kept the roads closed preventing people from escaping the fire. Add to that the emergency sirens not being turned on and a state official delaying needed supply of water to fight the fires and you have a disaster of human failure. Also needing to be investigated is why the fire department left the scene after the first fire, should they have stayed just in case? So Maui County sues Hawaiian Electrical saying it kept the power on and caused everything. Glance at the Maui damages at around 6 billion and glance at Hawaiian Electric Industries balance sheet and quickly issue an article that Hawaiian Electric (HE) is going bankrupt. Panic ensues. For Maui county, better start pointing fingers and sue, sue, sue, when you're probably at fault. $150 million dollars has been created for a Maui Recovery Fund for victims. Hawaiian Electric is contributing $75 million via insurance coverage. Also if you apply to this fund (upwards of 1 million per victim) you forgo any future lawsuits. Hawaiian Electrical's contribution is goodwill, not a liability. As a government official you can continue to say "we are all at fault here" until true investigations take place and the rubber meets the road. Also the US dept. of Energy just gave Hawaiian Electric $95 million to upgrade (harden) the electrical grids on the islands. Government goes after Hawaiian Electrical for not updating their grids. Hawaiian Electric says "We applied to you and you turned us down!" Gov. says "Ooops! Here's a check for $95million" This is a horrific situation that has wiped out a community and several lives. Hopefully a full investigation will uncover who's at fault here. But I'm guessing it's not going to be Hawaiian Electric. Maui County will have to eventually drop it's suit. Until then the price of HE stock could fall further, but I'm looking at a 2-5 year timeline so I don't care.
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Dec 1, 2023 12:50
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Charlie Munger left us with a lot of wisdom... (but this is fake) Congrats to anyone who was holding Vivos Therapeutics Inc (VVOS) this week. The FDA gave clearance to it's sleep apnea device and the stock went from $2.74 to $41 in a month, since fallen back down of course to a 700% return. Could this be a sign of hope for $GOON? Don't forget to chant everyday "Someday we'll be diamond.... Someday we'll be diamond...." when you get up and when you go to bed, and be sure to drink your Ovaltine. This will make stock go up! FDA De Novo is getting closer...
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Dec 1, 2023 13:09
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Fidelity is broken again
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Dec 1, 2023 19:11
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Shear Modulus posted:Fidelity is broken again It seems like nearly every big broker is having issues with their infrastructure. You'd think they make enough money to pay their developers, and it doesn't inspire confidence that everything is straight on the backend.
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Dec 1, 2023 20:27
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My risky AAL move looking not so so bad. Fingers crossed. Possible FA strike has me worried, but I feel like it will work out. e: based on basically nothing except me being executive platinum and hoping they don't gently caress with my upcoming travel. ReidRansom fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Dec 1, 2023 |
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Dec 1, 2023 20:34
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My stepdad's been holding IMGN. Not sure if it's as shares or long calls, he loves to hold long calls. Anyway 80%+ pop, and... he's not gonna sell any, he wants the last two dollars a share of the offer price so he's holding at least to completion of the buyout. quote:Under the terms of the deal, AbbVie will pay $31.26 a share in cash for ImmunoGen, a roughly 95% premium to Wednesday’s closing price. AbbVie said it expects to complete the acquisition, which aims to strengthen its oncology pipeline, in the middle of 2024. I feel like the very limited upside means you should usually sell today, not hold for six to eight more months just for that bit of juice. But, what are the downside risks? I know a deal can fall through, but my stepdad thinks if that happened someone else would swoop in to buy instead. Is that nuts? He's a lottery ticket addict but he's also a smart guy and he puts cash into biotechs because he reads the research papers and draws his own conclusions about viability of the products. Which uh. Sounds a hell of a lot like our collective $GOON research a couple years ago, lol?
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Dec 1, 2023 20:58
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For whatever its worth, i made a decent sized bet on that merger going through. Sold long dated 30 strike puts. But he could sell the shares and buy a 6 month CD and make up nearly half of the current spread. I'm not sure it makes sense to tie up capital for that long.
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Dec 1, 2023 21:20
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Leperflesh posted:I feel like the very limited upside means you should usually sell today, not hold for six to eight more months just for that bit of juice. But, what are the downside risks? I know a deal can fall through, but my stepdad thinks if that happened someone else would swoop in to buy instead. It's fairly nuts to think that if the deal fails, someone else will immediately step in, but it's not crazy at all to hold on until the deal closes to squeeze the last bit of juice out of it. It can be pretty lucrative! You can run a quick IRR analysis to see if the expected return seems justified by the risk of the deal breaking and go from there. quote:He's a lottery ticket addict but he's also a smart guy and he puts cash into biotechs because he reads the research papers and draws his own conclusions about viability of the products. Which uh. Sounds a hell of a lot like our collective $GOON research a couple years ago, lol? I don't like to see people lose money, and I have learned in the past not to go against a thread in herd mode, but if people made it to the "sous vide mouse machine" part of NDRA and thought, "wow, these guys sure sound like they know what they're doing, take my money please" it's hard to have too much sympathy. It looked like a turd from day one, or at least January 2021 or whenever it was pushed here.
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Dec 1, 2023 21:27
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I mean, I totally did, but not for very much money. I still have 54 shares, lol. But my stepdad opens positions of $30k+ of long calls in individual biotechs. So he's probably holding something like 60k in this thing now, assuming it's shares, if it's calls it's some big multiple of that. I just hope this doesn't turn into another Amarin (AMRN). He held Amarin through a big jump from its first big phase III results, and then held it a lot longer waiting for FDA approval, which never came because the FDA ruled that refining specific oils from fish oil doesn't make it a drug, it's still a nutritional supplement; and he lost something like $300k. And didn't seem to learn the obvious lessons of "take profits" and "regulatory risk is a type of risk and it exists and matters." He's frustrating in part because he's a wild man and in part because he only tells me half the story each time so I can't actually offer a well-reasoned critique. Anyway! I guess if the risk of the buyout falling apart is low, it's fine that he wants that last two bucks a share. 
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Dec 1, 2023 21:55
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Leperflesh posted:I mean, I totally did, but not for very much money. I still have 54 shares, lol. You can tell him this degen you know prefers selling the Jan '26 30p for 1.5, putting the money gained from that + the margin requirement into a CD (or VOO, cus I'm wild too). If my math works out I believe you end up ahead versus holding the shares. option strategy: immediate gain of 1.5 invest the 30.8 (29.3 for the shares + 1.5 from selling options) for 6 months at 5% = .77 total = $2.27 vs diamond hand the shares: $2 Plus, it's a low chance, but if abbvie decides to renegotiate the deal because of anything that comes up during further due diligence... and they make IMGN take a little haircut, I have a cushion where I'm still making that entire 2.27. Holding the shares (or long deep ITM calls), you lose whatever that number is. I believe that haircut risk is higher than the government deciding they want to look into this deal, because at least to this point the regulators have been pretty unconcerned about drug deals. Way too preoccupied with tech. (ok looks like the the options went for 1.33 today, not the 1.5 I got yesterday, so it is actually really close at this point).
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Dec 1, 2023 22:17
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Leperflesh posted:And didn't seem to learn the obvious lessons of "take profits" It took me a while to learn this myself, because when you're up it's always like, what if more???? But I've learned my lesson. Up $2.5k on some call? Just take it. Mixed news on NVO? Sell and buy LLY. Like, just take the wins when you can. It has me +90% to date this year.
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Dec 1, 2023 22:37
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ReidRansom posted:It took me a while to learn this myself, because when you're up it's always like, what if more???? But I've learned my lesson. Up $2.5k on some call? Just take it. Mixed news on NVO? Sell and buy LLY. Like, just take the wins when you can. i approach my actual gambling the same way. i learned it from a fortune cookie. something to the effect of "the surest way to unhappiness is to wish for even more."
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Dec 1, 2023 22:44
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Baddog posted:You can tell him this degen you know Haha I sent him the post, I mean not the stuff I said but the stuff you said. He's currently with my mom in the hospital so I have no idea if he'll see it today or whenever but any opportunity to challenge his view is worth taking because he falls into the deep end and nobody's looking over his shoulder. He wants to blow up his account to millions of dollars and has never been super interested in grinding out lots of small wins to get there. Although it helps that he has a pension, and has money placed with an investment company hands-off as well, so this is his gambling account. He's not literally betting the farm. But he's lost enough money at this point by failing to cash out wins that he could have his million+ from leaving his winnings in an index for a few years, and doesn't, and doesn't want to talk about that.
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Dec 1, 2023 22:55
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ARTPUP posted:Charlie Munger left us with a lot of wisdom... (but this is fake) Every day is another step closer to the 150-day De Novo approval deadline (40 days remain). Can you hear the drums of $GOON growing louder?
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Dec 1, 2023 23:08
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Space Fish posted:Every day is another step closer to the 150-day De Novo approval deadline (40 days remain). Can you hear the drums of $GOON growing louder? lmao, what's the medtech stock y'all are deep on again?
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Dec 1, 2023 23:10
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Endra (NDRA) This chart basically says it all. note the share prices are due to reverse splits, we were always buying a penny stock.
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Dec 1, 2023 23:14
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Leperflesh posted:For future people: over the last many years, from time to time the stock thread goes stupid over some random company that someone talks up and does very serious analysis on. We've done offshore oil platform servicing company (got hosed), chicken (ehhh), etc. and the most recent one has been NDRA, a company with an ultrasound technology for scanning livers that at one point had, I am not joking, six figures of goons' money invested. Like 250k or something. It has also gone into the toilet. We are referring to it as $GOON. The most recent financial report from NDRA was that they still hadn't submitted their revamped FDA approval request, and had less than two quarters of cash remaining, a situation which they described as excellent and exciting and good. But they have patents! Many of us have cost bases multiple times the current trading price. Here's the post in the previous stock thread that kicked it all off: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?noseen=1&threadid=3259986&pagenumber=2086&perpage=40&highlight=NDRA#post512188467 It was February 2, 2021. A few goons who jumped in actually swing traded it profitably, during the following year.
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Dec 1, 2023 23:17
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I did make a ton on NDRA, but I feel like I had some instinct on when to get out. JK it was luck Leperflesh posted:For future people: over the last many years, from time to time the stock thread goes stupid over some random company that someone talks up and does very serious analysis on. We've done offshore oil platform servicing company (got hosed), chicken (ehhh), etc. and the most recent one has been NDRA, a company with an ultrasound technology for scanning livers that at one point had, I am not joking, six figures of goons' money invested. Like 250k or something. It has also gone into the toilet. We are referring to it as $GOON. The most recent financial report from NDRA was that they still hadn't submitted their revamped FDA approval request, and had less than two quarters of cash remaining, a situation which they described as excellent and exciting and good. But they have patents! Many of us have cost bases multiple times the current trading price. ee: otoh... maybe it's time to do a GOEV style gently caress it charge to infinity? Probably not. (discolsure: 10,000 GOEV holdings averaged down to ~1.02 ) ReidRansom fucked around with this message at 23:51 on Dec 1, 2023 |
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Dec 1, 2023 23:46
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Congrats to UBER holders on joining the S&P500 https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-stock-price-sp500-inclusion-5788dde2
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Dec 1, 2023 23:59
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ReidRansom posted:It took me a while to learn this myself, because when you're up it's always like, what if more???? But I've learned my lesson. Up $2.5k on some call? Just take it. Mixed news on NVO? Sell and buy LLY. Like, just take the wins when you can.
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Dec 2, 2023 00:32
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Subvisual Haze posted:This is actually the primary reason I prefer selling options, the maximum profit is capped so it's pretty easy to know when to buy to close and move on. On the other hand, the whole "infinite risk" part is spooky.
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Dec 3, 2023 09:04
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edit: posted in error
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Dec 3, 2023 16:56
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