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This was a brutal week for byes, I set a perfect lineup in a few leagues but just did not have enough power. Need Engram to get 17 in one league which is about 2x his top game for the year (how does he have so many targets and 0 TD?), Lawrence and Ridley to outscore the JAX kicker by 20 in another. Kind of disappointing that all of my close matches are well within the range of the point difference between my starters and bye week replacements, but I guess everyone had to deal with that including my opponents at some point.
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Dec 4, 2023 16:08
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You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t
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I’m legit considering benching TLaw tonight because he’s the only player left for either of us in a matchup where I’m only ahead by 4 points.
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Dec 4, 2023 16:09
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pmchem posted:I’m legit considering benching TLaw tonight because he’s the only player left for either of us in a matchup where I’m only ahead by 4 points. If you have any kind of payout/tiebreaker based on points for, do not do this unless you've got an average game score cushion and even then I wouldn't do this.
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Dec 4, 2023 16:18
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pmchem posted:I’m legit considering benching TLaw tonight because he’s the only player left for either of us in a matchup where I’m only ahead by 4 points. weak-minded.
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Dec 4, 2023 16:33
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Matt Zerella posted:If you have any kind of payout/tiebreaker based on points for, do not do this unless you've got an average game score cushion and even then I wouldn't do this. Yeah, I thought about the tiebreaker aspect. I’m locked into the playoffs with this team. So it’s only the first round bye in contention. I’m in the #2 slot right now and play the #3 team next week, who leads me in points for by a wide margin. So next week is really just “win and get a bye, lose and no bye” situation. What are the greater odds? TLaw breaks below -4 or I get a >4 point scoring correction against me? I gotta think it’s the former, although both are very low probability.
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Dec 4, 2023 16:36
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If your league has atypical scoring like IDP or PP1st scoring corrections are more frequent, but I think the chance of Lawrence getting less than -4 is almost 0. First play int, second series fumble lost + injury?
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Dec 4, 2023 16:43
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Diqnol posted:AJ Brown can make contested catches Hill cannot and can do everything Hill can. Hill is a seriously great wr but the best X in the nfl is AJB Please don't make me dig up some reel of contested catches that Hill makes because he does it a lot
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Dec 4, 2023 16:51
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kiimo posted:Please don't make me dig up some reel of contested catches that Hill makes because he does it a lot the best way to avoid contested catches is to be so insanely fast that you are impossible to contest.
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Dec 4, 2023 16:56
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Yesterday finally broke me, I am out of multiple fantasy leagues and my team irl isn't doing poo poo this season. Time to focus on work again. It's almost liberating when you stop caring about fantasy and real football for the season
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Dec 4, 2023 16:59
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Pain of Mind posted:If your league has atypical scoring like IDP or PP1st scoring corrections are more frequent, but I think the chance of Lawrence getting less than -4 is almost 0. First play int, second series fumble lost + injury? Yeah we do have one IDP. I guess I’m horrified a bit by the passtronaut’s recent meltdown for the Vikings. Three of those INTs weren’t entirely on him. I guess I’ll leave TLaw in just in case IDP would screw me.
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Dec 4, 2023 17:04
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kiimo posted:Yesterday finally broke me, I am out of multiple fantasy leagues and my team irl isn't doing poo poo this season. Time to focus on work again. It's almost liberating when you stop caring about fantasy and real football for the season Even in years when my team is good I look forward to “delete all the fantasy poo poo off my phone” day by the end of the season. It’s also nice to be able to just watch football without caring which specific player has a good or bad game. Not like I have to worry about the performance of my real life team this year lol pmchem posted:Yeah we do have one IDP. I guess I’m horrified a bit by the passtronaut’s recent meltdown for the Vikings. Three of those INTs weren’t entirely on him. I guess I’ll leave TLaw in just in case IDP would screw me. That was probably the literal worst possible performance and he still finished with like 6 points. Tim Boyle scored positive points yesterday in a game where they scored 0 TDs and he threw a pick. There is no universe in which TLaw finishes with -4. (Narrator: but there was such a universe) Docjowles fucked around with this message at 17:09 on Dec 4, 2023 |
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Dec 4, 2023 17:05
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Poque posted:weak-minded. in the gambling industry we like using the term "scared money" to describe situations like this  Play your QB because losing to a -4 score would be an incredible once in a lifetime story if it happened, and you are scared money if you don't
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Dec 4, 2023 17:20
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Y’all using emotionally loaded terms for what is just a simple consideration of probability. I get no added enjoyment or advantage in winning by 4 points or 24 points here. Jesus it’s almost like posting in a politics thread.
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Dec 4, 2023 17:25
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I guess, but I don't think most people play FF for the transactional benefit of it. The emotions is the point.
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Dec 4, 2023 17:27
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You can obviously do what you want but anyone in any of the leagues I’m in who played scared and benched a player like that would be mocked until the heat death of the universe
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Dec 4, 2023 17:34
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A 4 point stat correction and a -4 point performance from a starting QB are both probably similarly unprecedented and unlikely. Just play Lawrence and don't overthink it. *Unless you have insanely punitive scoring for QB turnovers or something. But like someone upthread said, Dobbs had an absolute disaster of a real life performance and still scored positive fantasy points. Nobody is going -4
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Dec 4, 2023 17:36
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Well as previously stated, I’m gonna leave TLaw in because of any potential IDP stat corrections. But for the record, even in recent history there have been fantasy QB performances worse than -4 given basic settings: -6.66 from Darnold in 2019: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DarnSa00/fantasy/2019/ I can’t recall any stat corrections in our league >4 points but I also generally don’t pay attention to them, so a bad correction seems more likely than TLaw pulling a Darnold.
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Dec 4, 2023 18:08
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I'm going up a guy who I suspect has given up and not caring about his team anymore. He still has Joe Burrow as his QB. Just in case he comes back around, I grabbed Jake Browning off the waiver wire so he's hosed. I'm leading by 20, didn't want to take any risks. 
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Dec 4, 2023 18:45
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We have a couple of those in our league. Our 0-12 player just won his first game of the season against the guy who started the league, which is gonna be fun fodder. The other inactive I think died. He autodrafted, autorosters and is still in playoff contention. He hasn't said anything in chat. Next week we have a situation where depending on wins or losses, we could have 5 players at 6-8 and 2 of those make playoffs. It's been a weird league but with how things are shaping up I don't see myself winning the playoffs. Anything can happen in FF, but the dominant player in our league at 10-2 has an insane team. He's always projected to score like 110pts but ends up scoring like 150-160, week by week. So even if everything aligns right and I make it to finals, I can't see my team beating his.
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Dec 4, 2023 18:56
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trilljester posted:I'm going up a guy who I suspect has given up and not caring about his team anymore. He still has Joe Burrow as his QB. Just in case he comes back around, I grabbed Jake Browning off the waiver wire so he's hosed. I'm leading by 20, didn't want to take any risks. Strike first, strike hard, no mercy
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Dec 4, 2023 19:08
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Wait Henry isn’t in the concussion protocol???
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Dec 4, 2023 21:46
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Bellmaker posted:Wait Henry isn’t in the concussion protocol??? The concussion protocol is in Henry. He’s all powerful.
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Dec 4, 2023 21:52
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Bellmaker posted:Wait Henry isn’t in the concussion protocol??? He has what team doctors are calling a "cerebellum oopsie." Unfortunately, there's no medical way of knowing exactly where the brain is, so he's been cleared by default.
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Dec 4, 2023 21:53
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Iv sat my defense late in the season when I was up by a point once. Though defense much more likely to get neg points than a QB
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Dec 4, 2023 21:55
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Kevlar v2.0 posted:I'm against Metcalf and Dak this week so I've already lost. If Ridley gets 9 TDs tonight, I just might have a chance!
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Dec 4, 2023 22:30
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Kevlar v2.0 posted:If Ridley gets 9 TDs tonight, I just might have a chance! Also have Ridley and this probably still wouldnt do it for me as it looks like my opponents in both my ESPN leagues are gonna more than double my score.
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Dec 4, 2023 22:34
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Poque posted:He has what team doctors are calling a "cerebellum oopsie." Unfortunately, there's no medical way of knowing exactly where the brain is, so he's been cleared by default. I was feeling so loving clever about holding spears all goddamn season. Well, no reason to stop now. You watch Henry’s hit, homeboy went out cold.
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Dec 5, 2023 00:07
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Bananasaurus Rex posted:Iv sat my defense late in the season when I was up by a point once. Though defense much more likely to get neg points than a QB I’d do this almost every time.
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Dec 5, 2023 01:11
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What's up with KC's defense? They got dropped for their bye so I picked them up, sat them during the Eagles game because I thought it would be a shootout and instead they got five sacks and a pick, and now the they've gotten one point each of the past two weeks with three sacks total and zero turnovers against the not-quite-All-Pro offenses of Las Vegas and Green Bay. Are they just a streaming tier defense now? They'd scored 9+ in over half their games before that and they have an easy schedule after this coming game at Buffalo, but I'm wondering if I missed a key injury or something.
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Dec 5, 2023 01:15
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IMHO this year all defenses seem like streaming tier defenses. My opponent was so giddy about starting Dallas this week, didn't work out for him. To complement: Of course some defenses are better than others, but for fantasy purposes it seems like you're better off playing whoever has Tim Boyle or Bryce Young on tap than going for better defenses playing more competent teams. Freezer fucked around with this message at 01:34 on Dec 5, 2023 |
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Dec 5, 2023 01:30
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Four weeks ago I was flip flopping on defenses that people had dropped during their byes. I had to hop on a work call and when I got off I saw someone else snagged the Chiefs, so I went “poo poo! gently caress I was going to pick them up! Alright fine guess I’ll grab the Dolphins…” Fantasy is literally 85% stupid luck.
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Dec 5, 2023 01:34
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I am up 55 pts in my match this week. I am going against the Jlaw Ridley attack though so I don't know.
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Dec 5, 2023 02:01
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Well gently caress Christian Kirk just shredded his groin
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Dec 5, 2023 02:25
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Whoreson Welles posted:Four weeks ago I was flip flopping on defenses that people had dropped during their byes. I had to hop on a work call and when I got off I saw someone else snagged the Chiefs, so I went “poo poo! gently caress I was going to pick them up! Alright fine guess I’ll grab the Dolphins…” Closer to 99% imo.
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Dec 5, 2023 02:45
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morningdrew posted:I need Christian Kirk to hit like 33 points He broke his dick instead, I'm toast
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Dec 5, 2023 02:46
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morningdrew posted:He broke his dick instead, I'm toast No, he tore his groin. A broken dick is a much more gross painful injury. I once had to take my roommate to the hospital when he broke it, it looks like a spiral cartilage fracture, but your dick. Think it took 8 months for him to recover.
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Dec 5, 2023 02:53
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I'm probably screwed everywhere this week. Oh wait, AFC East league that's my one win! 
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Dec 5, 2023 02:56
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Quiet Feet posted:I'm probably screwed everywhere this week. Fantastic is what it was
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Dec 5, 2023 03:00
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I need the Jags to start getting some sacks and/or ints.
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Dec 5, 2023 03:27
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Chernabog posted:I need the Jags to start getting some sacks and/or ints. I need them to get 3 pick 6’s.
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Dec 5, 2023 03:28
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