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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:DeSantis is close to throwing in the towel. easy answer. He, ron desantis, blew it. the guy ran on hard right social poo poo and then hurt his state in very obvious and stupid ways that pissed off money, He also doesnt know how to act human and apperently doesnt understand friendship and basic poo poo like that so he made know real friends in state or out and basicaly hoped hard right social poo poo mixed with "trump but smart" would save him, but much like a blue dog running in a red state, he doesnt get the chuds wont abadon trump for a shittier version. Also ron tried way way way to hard to paint himself as JFK. I am not even a giant JFK fan but like dude, your not jfk and you sure as gently caress dont have his charisma or empthy. also i wouldnt be shocked if his nutjob wife pushed him into it. the only people who liked him were the weird "smart" nazis who realized trump is too much of a liability and wanted to hide behind family values.
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Dec 6, 2023 20:21
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https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1731852497181167929 Huh I always wondered how Tester lost his fingers. Lots of ways to lose a finger on a farm. He even still has the meat grinder what took his hand.
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Dec 6, 2023 20:32
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1731852497181167929 When he first ran in 2006, I remember him airing ads where he told the story about how he put his hand through a meat grinder and called himself a dirt farmer. Apparently, it works for people in Montana.
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Dec 6, 2023 20:41
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zoux posted:I've been watching a bunch of old MST3Ks from 30 years ago and they make a lot of Trump jokes. I'm always a bit taken aback.
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Dec 6, 2023 20:46
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FlamingLiberal posted:I do find it funny that almost no one in the GOP has figured out how to replicate being Trump I have to admit that I was worried for quite a while about what would happen when a smart version of trump arose from all the beta tests in red districts and state governments, but it turns out that being incredibly stupid is a key factor in trump’s success. There can’t be a smart trump. Maybe Tuberville is the closest thing to a replication of trump. The next one will have to be like a talk show host or a pro sports coach, or maybe a football player.
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Dec 6, 2023 20:55
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Dapper_Swindler posted:easy answer. He, ron desantis, blew it. the guy ran on hard right social poo poo and then hurt his state in very obvious and stupid ways that pissed off money, He also doesnt know how to act human and apperently doesnt understand friendship and basic poo poo like that so he made know real friends in state or out and basicaly hoped hard right social poo poo mixed with "trump but smart" would save him, but much like a blue dog running in a red state, he doesnt get the chuds wont abadon trump for a shittier version. Also ron tried way way way to hard to paint himself as JFK. I am not even a giant JFK fan but like dude, your not jfk and you sure as gently caress dont have his charisma or empthy. also i wouldnt be shocked if his nutjob wife pushed him into it. the only people who liked him were the weird "smart" nazis who realized trump is too much of a liability and wanted to hide behind family values. He literally has had the goal of being president since he was in Little League, and is termed out as FL governor. It is *very* unlikely that anyone pressured him into this.
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Dec 6, 2023 21:01
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I AM GRANDO posted:I have to admit that I was worried for quite a while about what would happen when a smart version of trump arose from all the beta tests in red districts and state governments, but it turns out that being incredibly stupid is a key factor in trump’s success. There can’t be a smart trump. Maybe Tuberville is the closest thing to a replication of trump. The next one will have to be like a talk show host or a pro sports coach, or maybe a football player. yeah thats kinda my view. the GOP needs a canidate who is nuts enough to win the primary but safe and boring to win the general. trump won because people didnt like clinton and thought that trump was bullshiting. etc. trump and the GOP doesnt have that surprise anymore. the issue is the new breed of gop are either obvious oppertunists, true believer morons or smarter nutjobs who have 0 in charisma.
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Dec 6, 2023 21:02
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New CNN poll has some interesting and wild results. - Biden still near his lowest ever approval at 37%. Most of his issues stems from having only 76% approval among Democrats and almost 0 approval from Republicans. His approval ratings on how he is handling crime and the economy are even lower at 33%. Weirdly, the one area where his approval is significantly higher - environmental policies. - Americans are significantly more worried about the current state of the economy now than they were with 18% unemployment right after Covid hit in 2020. Now: 84% - Worried 16% - Not Worried 2020: 58% - Worried 41% - Not Worried Americans think the economy is better now than it was last year, but 71% still rate it as "Poor" and 61% say they expect the economy will stay poor for at least 1 to 2 years. They also still rate their personal financial situation much better than they rate the economy overall, where it is about 50/50 whether it is good or not. - Americans are polarizing on which party handles issues better. Issues that used to be pretty even are now breaking way in favor of one party over the other. Issues that the public used to be evenly divided on, but now the public leans heavily towards Republicans: Crime Immigration The Economy Foreign Policy/America's Role in the World Issues that the public used to be evenly divided on, but now the public leans heavily towards Democrats: Healthcare Abortion Voting Rights Climate Change Education Unfortunately for Democrats, almost nobody thinks those issues are a priority right now. - Ratings on how importance specific issues are have polarized. Republicans are significantly more likely to say the economy or immigration are the biggest issues right now. Democrats are significantly more likely to say "democracy and voting rights," climate change, or abortion as the biggest issues. - Americans approve of literally every policy for reducing crime that they asked and think all of them will help reduce crime. Increasing police patrols: 71% Increasing police funding: 69% Stricter sentences for property crime: 68% Stop prosecutors from declining to charge cases: 67% Increase funding for social services and anti-poverty programs: 67% Expanding community intervention programs: 65% 57% say the 2024 election for president will have a "large impact" on crime. https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/06/politics/cnn-poll-biden-economy-crime/index.html Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:11 on Dec 6, 2023 |
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Dec 6, 2023 21:07
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I AM GRANDO posted:I have to admit that I was worried for quite a while about what would happen when a smart version of trump arose from all the beta tests in red districts and state governments, but it turns out that being incredibly stupid is a key factor in trump’s success. There can’t be a smart trump. Maybe Tuberville is the closest thing to a replication of trump. The next one will have to be like a talk show host or a pro sports coach, or maybe a football player.
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Dec 6, 2023 21:28
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Semi-related, but here is another poll from the Financial Times about specific economic conditions that shows some crazy results. Most Americans think the unemployment rate (3.9%) is significantly higher than the unemployment rate 30 years ago (7.4%). They also think essentially every metric of economic progress was better 30 years ago and a ~2/3 majority of Americans answered every single economic fact question incorrectly. https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1732476001144225881
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Dec 6, 2023 21:29
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Mass shooting at the University of Nevada in Las Vegas. Multiple victims and gunman still on the loose. Campus is currently locked down and police responding. Edit: AP has an article to link to now instead of just a notice on the wire. Edit 2: Las Vegas PD said they surrounded the shooter and are now reporting he is dead. Not clear if he killed himself or the police killed him. https://twitter.com/AP/status/1732498676843421827 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:42 on Dec 6, 2023 |
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Dec 6, 2023 21:34
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FlamingLiberal posted:I am calling it now, Aaron Rodgers is going to run for President at some point 100% we'll see Libertarian Party candidate Rodgers at some point.
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Dec 6, 2023 21:44
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Semi-related, but here is another poll from the Financial Times about specific economic conditions that shows some crazy results. Thats nuts. like i dont think the economy is perfect but its nuts that people think its great depression poo poo.
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Dec 6, 2023 21:51
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Dapper_Swindler posted:Thats nuts. like i dont think the economy is perfect but its nuts that people think its great depression poo poo. So the question is why. We can blame the media for spinning everything into a negative story, but they only do that because way more people read those stories. We can blame social media messaging, but I just don't think a high enough percentage of Americans are active in social media to the extent that it would create that kind of disparity between reality and fiction. Basically do we think that traditional and social media messaging are sufficient to see the insane disconnect between perceptions of the economy and performance of the economy? Or are there additional factors, and what are they? I know we've been rolling this question around in the thread for a week or so, but I still don't feel any closer to understanding what's going on. https://twitter.com/Dictionarycom/status/1730345974957023355 We got the drat dictionary posting about it!
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Dec 6, 2023 21:56
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there are far more "fees" and "penalties" since before covid. companies discovered that people will pay 75 cents for cashback, or a built in "pay online" fee and all of them just...added it. i also get asked for a donation or tip literally every place i go now.
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Dec 6, 2023 21:58
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zoux posted:I just don't think a high enough percentage of Americans are active in social media to the extent that it would create that kind of disparity between reality and fiction. Of my friends that aren't actively posting on social media, whenever they do share something in the news to our group chat it's a social media post or from reddit. I would bet that the majority of Americans get their news from some kind of social media rather than a news site of some kind. Even if they don't post on social media themselves, they're still probably scrolling through some manner of social media, it's inescapable. Very rarely can I get an average person to even read a single article, if its too complicated to fit into a social media post or a tiktok video it probably isn't getting consumed by your average person.
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Dec 6, 2023 22:02
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InsertPotPun posted:there are far more "fees" and "penalties" since before covid. companies discovered that people will pay 75 cents for cashback, or a built in "pay online" fee and all of them just...added it. i also get asked for a donation or tip literally every place i go now. Yes, we’re getting “just remove one olive”d to death. Everyone keeps figuring out the absolute most efficient way to extract money from people, which people have been trying to do forever but they now can really crunch the numbers and say “we lose X customers with a Y% cost increase so it’s profitable to do it.” Or “removing X amenity saves us Y and only Z% of customers so let’s do it!” Which again has been happening forever, but with how much data they can now (relatively) easily collect and analyze it’s gotten worse.
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Dec 6, 2023 22:25
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zoux posted:So the question is why. We can blame the media for spinning everything into a negative story, but they only do that because way more people read those stories. We can blame social media messaging, but I just don't think a high enough percentage of Americans are active in social media to the extent that it would create that kind of disparity between reality and fiction. yeah, like its "weird" because me and friends i know are all doing pretty well. I have pretty ok disposible income even living paycheck to paychek, its not amazing buts alot better then a couple years ago and my friends are doing better then me. obviously thats not everything but it feels off. like inflation with grocceries and other products, i understand easy, it shouldnt be 3 bucks for a candy bar and obviously thats just the little poo poo. that being said, i feel like alot of folks believe they are doing well, but no one else is.
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Dec 6, 2023 22:40
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zoux posted:We can blame social media messaging, but I just don't think a high enough percentage of Americans are active in social media to the extent that it would create that kind of disparity between reality and fiction. So I want to dive into this more later when I’m not phone posting cause it seems relatively easy to look up info on, but my impression is that Americans absolutely are active in social media to that extent. Especially things like Reddit which I think a very large percentage of Americans consume, but also keep in mind of things like the YouTube algorithm which even if it’s not “social” it prolly does take social trends into account and shows you what it thinks you want to watch.
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Dec 6, 2023 23:08
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Boris Galerkin posted:So I want to dive into this more later when I’m not phone posting cause it seems relatively easy to look up info on, but my impression is that Americans absolutely are active in social media to that extent. Especially things like Reddit which I think a very large percentage of Americans consume, but also keep in mind of things like the YouTube algorithm which even if it’s not “social” it prolly does take social trends into account and shows you what it thinks you want to watch. I'm persuadable on it certainly, I look forward to your deep dive.
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Dec 6, 2023 23:18
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So how do the feds counter this "Guard the Vote" tactic chuds wanna do to intimidate city voters on election day?
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Dec 6, 2023 23:19
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Grouchio posted:So how do the feds counter this "Guard the Vote" tactic chuds wanna do to intimidate city voters on election day? Nothing? People have been afraid of this every election since 2016 and it hasn't happened yet.
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Dec 6, 2023 23:21
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I am now a fairly active responder to the Gallup polls that land in my inbox. I have done a handful this year, including on the economy and job market, and my 12/13 year old son has done a few on the state of kids in America. The most recent poll I did this week was about the military, mainly my impression of the Marines. Living in SoCal, I was honest that my view of the Marines was tainted by the many crimes of recruits at Camp Pendleton, including sex and drug trafficking, among other things. And for the military in general I mentioned the rather frequent helicopter accidents that kill people. Every time I get one of these polls, I think of you guys!
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Dec 6, 2023 23:21
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I like how they’re making up new words to explain away how the recalculation of metrics like CPI that no longer align with what people actually pay for instead just the people making poo poo up. The price of food and rent keeps skyrocketing and that’s where it all goes. Nobody cares about hotel prices in Aspen in the off season. Same arrogance that doomed Hillary. Tell people they are stupid and disconnected with their own living condition and see how that goes for you
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Dec 6, 2023 23:40
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Also a lot of the questions are subjective. If your going to ask someone if they're doing better now compared to before the pandemic and they say no, how can you call them wrong without a view of their life that you can't have, and how is calling them wrong a "settled economic fact"?
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Dec 6, 2023 23:43
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zoux posted:So the question is why. We can blame the media for spinning everything into a negative story, but they only do that because way more people read those stories. We can blame social media messaging, but I just don't think a high enough percentage of Americans are active in social media to the extent that it would create that kind of disparity between reality and fiction. Tv news definitely uses crisis framing and presents the day’s events as part of an ongoing narrative with constant, usually bad, developments. After my parents retired they became professional tv news watchers, and not even fox or cable stuff, but just like the morning shows and the nightly local and national. They were all worked up about border crisis for years. The one who’s left will still bring it up but doesn’t handwring unprompted any more. There was also a two-month window where they kept talking about atomic war involving Russia and talk in 2021about how Biden might restrict interstate commerce because of covid. Tv news can absolutely fry a person’s brain by training them to sit in anticipation of how the big story is going to develop that day and then watching a bunch of explosions and crimes in hd. The first time I visited after covid died down a bit, I felt like they must have been watching newsmax or something because of how hysterical they were about mundane poo poo, but I was all Brian Williams and the Today Show.
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Dec 6, 2023 23:44
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Mid-Life Crisis posted:I like how they’re making up new words to explain away how the recalculation of metrics like CPI that no longer align with what people actually pay for instead just the people making poo poo up. The price of food and rent keeps skyrocketing and that’s where it all goes. Nobody cares about hotel prices in Aspen in the off season. Food and housing together make up 60% of the weighing of CPI, what percentage of income do you think the median person spends on those items? Why do you think the CPI expenditure survey doesn't capture that people spend more than that on those categories? Hotels and related lodgings make up 0.9 of CPI, which seems somewhere near right to me. Agean90 posted:Also a lot of the questions are subjective. If your going to ask someone if they're doing better now compared to before the pandemic and they say no, how can you call them wrong without a view of their life that you can't have, and how is calling them wrong a "settled economic fact"? The "settled facts" are from the Financial Times figure in the tweet posted earlier. All the questions they ask are about quantitative measures of the whole economy. Kagrenak fucked around with this message at 23:49 on Dec 6, 2023 |
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Dec 6, 2023 23:47
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Agean90 posted:Also a lot of the questions are subjective. If your going to ask someone if they're doing better now compared to before the pandemic and they say no, how can you call them wrong without a view of their life that you can't have, and how is calling them wrong a "settled economic fact"? Additionally, the conundrum is that people are overwhelmingly saying that their onw personal situation is good, but the economy is bad.  If people were saying "I"m in dire straits and also the economy is bad" then it wouldn't be a mystery.
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Dec 6, 2023 23:49
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Semi-related, but here is another poll from the Financial Times about specific economic conditions that shows some crazy results. That survey relies on precise economic definitions that few people use commonly and the infographic doesn’t even maintain like “rate of inflation has gone up” versus “inflation has risen.” Lots of non-economists use “inflation” to mean the area under the “rate of inflation” curve. It also counts “wealth” as including the value of homes, which are illiquid right now even by housing standards. Plenty of people aren’t going to view that as wealthier, because they can’t do anything with that wealth. Meanwhile prices at the grocery store are way higher than they were a few years ago. Of course people will say they felt wealthier back then. Especially given the lapsing of government assistance from the COVID times. It has value only as a measure of which economics terms the average poll responder can parse correctly. MickeyFinn fucked around with this message at 23:54 on Dec 6, 2023 |
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Dec 6, 2023 23:49
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zoux posted:Additionally, the conundrum is that people are overwhelmingly saying that their onw personal situation is good, but the economy is bad. It's not that much of a mystery imo, you can do perfectly well and still see things like rising grocery prices and homeownership getting increasingly out of reach for a bunch of people and figure somethings wrong and going to break soon
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Dec 6, 2023 23:52
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MickeyFinn posted:That survey relies on precise economic definitions that few people use commonly and the infographic doesn’t even maintain like “rate of inflation has gone up” versus “inflation has risen.” Lots of non-economists use “inflation” to mean the area under the “rate of inflation” curve. "Are more people better off now than before the pandemic" and "is inflation worse than it was last year" are not economic arcana. Agean90 posted:It's not that much of a mystery imo, you can do perfectly well and still see things like rising grocery prices and homeownership getting increasingly out of reach for a bunch of people and figure somethings wrong and going to break soon But see that "bunch of people" doesn't exist because most people think their economic situation is good. So most people can't look at other people and mostly come to the conclusion that the economy is bad. Surely there are some people who live in outlier groups but if most people are doing well then most people can't look at most people and say the economy is bad.
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Dec 6, 2023 23:52
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zoux posted:Additionally, the conundrum is that people are overwhelmingly saying that their onw personal situation is good, but the economy is bad. Maybe people here variou bad news and assume everyone is doing worse then they are.
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Dec 6, 2023 23:53
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Queering Wheel posted:Nothing? People have been afraid of this every election since 2016 and it hasn't happened yet. I think it's gonna be rough this time. Trump is asking his cult to aggressively guard, and with 4 years of "stolen election" rhetoric feeding them into a frenzy they are definitely going to try and intimidate as many people as possible.
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Dec 6, 2023 23:54
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zoux posted:"Are more people better off now than before the pandemic" and "is inflation worse than it was last year" are not economic arcana. You are wrong about this and it is why you are struggling to understand these poll responses. I edited my post to have more in it, in case that helps.
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Dec 6, 2023 23:55
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There's also the fact that covid (and the financial crisis before it) highlighted just how impermanent economic success is. Sure, I can pay the bills today, but will I be homeless in 6 months? Feels possible
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Dec 6, 2023 23:56
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MickeyFinn posted:You are wrong about this and it is why you are struggling to understand these poll responses. I edited my post to have more in it, in case that helps. I think the questions are perfectly straightforward. Aztec Galactus posted:There's also the fact that covid (and the financial crisis before it) highlighted just how impermanent economic success is. Sure, I can pay the bills today, but will I be homeless in 6 months? Feels possible If they think that they sure aren't spending like they think that.  They aren't spending like the economy is bad.
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Dec 6, 2023 23:56
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Aztec Galactus posted:There's also the fact that covid (and the financial crisis before it) highlighted just how impermanent economic success is. Sure, I can pay the bills today, but will I be homeless in 6 months? Feels possible It did that for basically everyone the world over though, so why are people only reacting like that in the united states
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Dec 6, 2023 23:58
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reignonyourparade posted:It did that for basically everyone the world over though, so why are people only reacting like that in the united states I don't follow other countries media as much, do they all have their own well organized right-wing media empires like we do?
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Dec 7, 2023 00:03
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reignonyourparade posted:It did that for basically everyone the world over though, so why are people only reacting like that in the united states Are people not reacting like this all over? I'm honestly not sure. At least the rise of right wing governments in Europe and the general fear of immigration seems like there's some sort of general anxiety globally. Not sure if the specific perception of the economy is happening though (and it might be because their economy might actually be hurting).
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Dec 7, 2023 00:09
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zoux posted:I'm persuadable on it certainly, I look forward to your deep dive. Pew has a Social Media Use in 2021 report where they say the vast majority of Americans use social media in one form or other. The most popular platform is YouTube (81% “of Americans”) followed by Facebook (69% “of Americans”). The rest are no where close. In their methodology they say they called both landlines and cellphones. For landlines, they asked for the youngest adult in the house at that time, and for cellphones they asked whoever answered as long as that person was an adult. They took into account of people who had both landlines and cell phones (generally older people? idk) and conducted their survey in both English and Spanish. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-r...al-media-sites/ Then they have a more recent study (2023) that asked people where they got their news from (question being in the form: “how often do you get news from [specific website, tv, print media, etc]”.  I am not a statistician. My reading/take on this is that a super majority of Americans (75%+) regularly use social media, while a large (but not necessarily a majority) percentage of Americans consume news from social media. Social media sites push content to you via their algorithm, which necessarily means that everyone essentially gets news inside a bubble. I could have sworn someone posted a study a few days back showing how all of this stuff about the economy ultimately correlates to a person’s political leaning and what letter is next to the current president.
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Dec 7, 2023 00:14
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