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(Thread IKs: Stereotype)
 
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kater
Nov 16, 2010

kaxman posted:

100-240 potentially fatal cancers

"worst nuclear accident in the West"

lol

wasn’t there a here’s the body count per specific coal plant over the last twenty years paper like yesterday ? it totaled half a million? nuclear is a sad, weak energy

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TeenageArchipelago
Jul 23, 2013


Microplastics posted:

The BBC interviewed Gates at COP and i just want to drop this nugget here

ok. but then,

lllllloooooooool.

look, we may have put off any action for so long that 1.5c is now inevitable, but trust me we'll get around to making sure that 4c is off the table

err
Apr 11, 2005

I carry my own weight no matter how heavy this shit gets...

Microplastics posted:

The BBC interviewed Gates at COP and i just want to drop this nugget here

ok. but then,

lllllloooooooool.

COPE28

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

kater posted:

wasn’t there a here’s the body count per specific coal plant over the last twenty years paper like yesterday ? it totaled half a million? nuclear is a sad, weak energy
it was 460,000 in the US over the last 20 years I think. So a casual 20k a year, give or take

TACD
Oct 27, 2000

The Protagonist posted:

Chart of Nuclides
this rules, I’ve somehow never heard of this before and am geeking out over the wiki page.

also all the rules about decay moving the atom in different directions around the chart makes it sound like a board game lmao

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Microplastics posted:

The BBC interviewed Gates at COP and i just want to drop this nugget here

ok. but then,

lllllloooooooool.

in general, you always have to be careful.

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice

bawfuls posted:

it was 460,000 in the US over the last 20 years I think. So a casual 20k a year, give or take

I thought only like 20k people work for the coal industry. so it’s like if there was an industry with a 100% fatality rate for its workers. good thing its just killing random strangers instead though, otherwise the obvious correlation would be too much to ignore, probably.

The Protagonist
Jun 29, 2009

The average is 5.5? I thought it was 4. This is very unsettling.

TACD posted:

this rules, I’ve somehow never heard of this before and am geeking out over the wiki page.

also all the rules about decay moving the atom in different directions around the chart makes it sound like a board game lmao

:haw: yeah! Beta+? Proton spits out a positron and becomes a neutron: move diagonal down right. Beta-? Up and to the left. Absorb a neutron, move to the right. Alpha? Diagonal down to the left two spaces. Fission? Who knows! ... And yet averaged over a large number of fissions and the products are normally distributed over two peaks with known concentrations.

One thing that still blows my mind is a free neutron is, itself, unstable. If it doesn't get absorbed for long enough, it'll decay too... Into a proton! A dead neutral particle spontaneously causing a new atom of hydrogen to form... It's like the universe wants to be more interesting

Rectal Death Alert
Apr 2, 2021

TeenageArchipelago posted:

look, we may have put off any action for so long that 1.5c is now inevitable, but trust me we'll get around to making sure that 4c is off the table

The thread was discussing this during COP26 when some people were pretending 1.5c was still possible but I really thought they'd move the goal post to 2C or 2.5C once it was obvious 1.5C is impossible but the narrative jumping straight to 4C is pretty funny.

Even that overly optimistic article I posted from some bullshit climate report generator said that things looked good because we were probably going to limit warming to less than 3.7C.

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

Rectal Death Alert posted:

The thread was discussing this during COP26 when some people were pretending 1.5c was still possible but I really thought they'd move the goal post to 2C or 2.5C once it was obvious 1.5C is impossible but the narrative jumping straight to 4C is pretty funny.

Even that overly optimistic article I posted from some bullshit climate report generator said that things looked good because we were probably going to limit warming to less than 3.7C.

All of this poo poo stems from the latest generation of earth system models having a lower upper bound for equilibrium climate sensitivity. They treat this as a win while ignoring every other effect that isn't long-term stable temperature. It's the same dumbassed mindset that made them all use 2100 as a target year in models.

Skaffen-Amtiskaw
Jun 24, 2023

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

All of this poo poo stems from the latest generation of earth system models having a lower upper bound for equilibrium climate sensitivity. They treat this as a win while ignoring every other effect that isn't long-term stable temperature. It's the same dumbassed mindset that made them all use 2100 as a target year in models.

I thought the latest ECS findings made it much more likely we understated the impacts of the carbon forcings already in effect.

Microplastics
Jul 6, 2007

:discourse:
It's what's for dinner.
the BBC has a long article about the 1.5C figure in general https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20231130-climate-crisis-the-15c-global-warming-threshold-explained

quote:

the 1.5C threshold means that by the year 2100, the world's average surface temperature will have risen to no more than 1.5C (2.7F) warmer than pre-industrial levels.

quote:

the International Panel on Climate Change uses a baseline of 1850-1900. That's because it's the earliest period with reliable, near-global measurements. It's true that some warming from human activity had already occurred by that point, because the industrial revolution began in the early 1700s.

quote:

The 1.5C target was based on assessments of the impacts of climate change at different levels of warming. For instance, the IPCC report found that at this temperature, extreme heat is significantly less common and intense in many parts of the world than at 2C. And at the other extreme, the coldest nights at high latitudes warm by around 4.5C when the world is at an average of 1.5C warming. That figure is especially important for the future of sea ice in the polar regions. At 2C warming, the coldest nights warm by around 6C.

have we already exceeded 1.5C? not as a long term average but temporarily and locally, yes:

quote:

The global average daily temperature was more than 1.5C more than the preindustrial average for roughly one-third of days in 2023. Needless to say, this was a record number of days above the 1.5C daily limit. But there is a big difference between the global temperature on individual days, and the long-term average. The latter is what's meant when the 1.5C threshold is discussed in negotiations like COP28
[...]
we can also see that the 1.5C is being breached on local and regional levels.

we won't really be able to definitely say "we've done it" on a given day or even year:

quote:

Because the IPCC uses long-term averages for the global temperature, we will pass 1.5C warming on individual days, months and years before the decadal average is considered to be past 1.5C.

And because of the difficulty in accurately estimating the global temperature from decade to decade, "it doesn't make too much sense to get hung up on exactly which year will cross 1.5C", says Allen.

are we on track? no:

quote:

Earlier in 2023, the IPCC calculated that by the mid-2030s there would be a 50% chance of the world commiting itself to a rise of 1.5C. However, a new analysis taking into account more recent data suggests we could reach this threshold sooner – as early as 2029.
[...]
Overshooting 1.5C is "fast becoming inevitable", according to a report launched at COP28 by climate and social scientists.

can we come back from an overshoot? hahahahaha:

quote:

To get back below 1.5C after overshoot would require carbon capture on a massive scale. [...] between 10 and 15 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year – that’s 3-4.5 times more than the EU’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2021, and about 2-3 times the US’s emissions in the same year.

To stand a chance of reversing overshoot, these technologies would need to be used in addition to eliminating the vast majority of new greenhouse gas emissions, notes King, not as a replacement for cutting emissions.

and even if we managed to achieve this magic?

quote:

Even if we did return to temperatures under 1.5C after overshoot, many crucial systems would take centuries to return to a healthy state, including permafrost, sea levels, ice sheets and ocean acidity.

and even if we didn't overshoot and just settled at 1.5C?

quote:

Given the extreme weather we are already seeing, some argue that 1.5C is not the final figure we should have in mind.

"CCAG is saying, 1.5C is already too high – look at what's happening today," says King. "And so we're saying, we will need to get it back down to less than 1C above the preindustrial level."

so we should aim for 1C. how we doing?

quote:

At present, governments are already planning to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels than would be compatible with a 1.5C pathway.

quote:

The UN's latest Emissions Gap report states that the world is on track for 3C of warming by the end of the century.

oooof.

OIL PANIC
Dec 22, 2022

CAUTIONS
...
4. ... (If the battery is exhausted, the display of the liquid crystal will become vague and difficult to look at.)
...
7. Do not use volatile oils such as thinner or benzine and alcohol for wiping.
BRB, girdling the tree of life.

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

Skaffen-Amtiskaw posted:

I thought the latest ECS findings made it much more likely we understated the impacts of the carbon forcings already in effect.


(https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-report-on-climate-science/)

ok the average might be higher but the tall whiskers are smaller so the apocalypse is cancelled :)


This was especially amusing because AR6 came on the heels of a bunch of CMIP6 models showing extremely high ECS values in the >5C range. However, because they failed to model some historical trends as well as other models that projected a lower ECS, their ECS results were discarded.

Notorious R.I.M. has issued a correction as of 20:28 on Dec 6, 2023

OIL PANIC
Dec 22, 2022

CAUTIONS
...
4. ... (If the battery is exhausted, the display of the liquid crystal will become vague and difficult to look at.)
...
7. Do not use volatile oils such as thinner or benzine and alcohol for wiping.

The Protagonist posted:

neutronic flux burnout; transmutation-annihilation
would love to learn more about these; google/ ddg have failed me.
edit: i would still like you to geek out more; is this the same thing as enrichment, and hence banned for anti-proliferation reasons? or is the ban even more bullshit than that. would love sources, as i literally found only one paper that used the latter phrase, and nothing that uses the precise former phrase (mostly 'neutron flux burnout'?)

OIL PANIC has issued a correction as of 20:41 on Dec 6, 2023

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

c/p from the asia thread

GlassEye-Boy posted:

uh oh, Chinese are deploying nuclear warships! Wait, it’s just a cargo ship?

https://x.com/type36512/status/1732045330177556616?s=20

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...en-salt-reactor

molten salt thorium reactor design, still very much in the drawing board phase, but still pretty nifty

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

That’s a good sign for the development status of their molten salt reactors if they’re confident enough to put them on ships.

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
life energy is cheap affordable in the orient

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice
https://www.badspacecomics.com/post/grounded





this seems like a relevant comic. i can't figure out how to copy all the images so you have to click it

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

it’s been posted but it’s an evergreen comic for this thread

The Protagonist
Jun 29, 2009

The average is 5.5? I thought it was 4. This is very unsettling.

OIL PANIC posted:

would love to learn more about these; google/ ddg have failed me.
edit: i would still like you to geek out more; is this the same thing as enrichment, and hence banned for anti-proliferation reasons? or is the ban even more bullshit than that. would love sources, as i literally found only one paper that used the latter phrase, and nothing that uses the precise former phrase (mostly 'neutron flux burnout'?)

"partitioning and transmutation" seems to be good parlance for the topic, but it is crazy how much more lovely the internet has gotten for anything nuclear-related over just a few years too. that's probably true of everything else :shrug:

but the short version is as you say: the solution requires reprocessing and enrichment, and that has been successfully painted as only for weapons and nothing else

quick excerpt from an IAEA bulletin way back in '92:

quote:

The P&T [partitioning and transmutation] strategy can only be implemented by a fuel-cycle policy incorporating reprocessing as a key step through which all major actinides (uranium, plutonium) are recycled, and which is capable of isolating the minor actinides and some long-lived fission products from the effluent stream in order to prepare them for the subsequent transmutation steps.

FistEnergy
Nov 3, 2000

DAY CREW: WORKING HARD

Fun Shoe
3C by 2100 sounds pretty bad, glad I won't be here to see it

Dokapon Findom
Dec 5, 2022

They hated Futanari because His posts were shit.
The significance of the 2100 date being of course that we will no longer have to worry about anything ever again after that point

The Demilich
Apr 9, 2020

The First Rites of Men Were Mortuary, the First Altars Tombs.



3C° by 2030!

Mola Yam
Jun 18, 2004

Kali Ma Shakti de!
2100°C by 2100

Ferdinand Bardamu
Apr 30, 2013
420.69C at my place all day every day :)

HAIL eSATA-n
Apr 7, 2007


we get it, you're all hot

Second Hand Meat Mouth
Sep 12, 2001

bawfuls posted:

That’s a good sign for the development status of their molten salt reactors if they’re confident enough to put them on ships.

safer to put it on a ship than on your soil lol

Microplastics
Jul 6, 2007

:discourse:
It's what's for dinner.
I need more information about what the nuclear ship is carrying before I pass judgement. Is it coal? It's coal, isn't it?

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice

Dokapon Findom posted:

The significance of the 2100 date being of course that we will no longer have to worry about anything ever again after that point

yeah it’s when everything stops. so 3C by 2100 means it also won’t keep going up, that’s the max. it’s not like it’s gonna keep getting worse till everything is dead. that would be crazy

Microplastics
Jul 6, 2007

:discourse:
It's what's for dinner.

quote:

Use the interactive chart below to see which countries are on track with their commitments to meet the Paris climate goal of keeping global temperature rises below 1.5 degrees.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65754296

TehSaurus
Jun 12, 2006

Mola Yam posted:

2100°C by 2100

this is the kind of ambitious goal setting we need if we are going to finally solve the climate crisis once and for all


I don’t need a chart to know that nobody is on track

edit: lmfao the only people beating their goals are developing nations like India (because their economies are growing so much slower than they expected, their emissions are increasing slower than their pledges which were already steeply increasing emissions.) Empire ftw!!

TehSaurus has issued a correction as of 13:21 on Dec 7, 2023

TACD
Oct 27, 2000

Bhutan has the right idea, under-promise and over-deliver 👍🏻

Only registered members can see post attachments!

mags
May 30, 2008

I am a congenital optimist.

HAIL eSATA-n posted:

we get it, you're all hot

speak for yourself im ugly as gently caress

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

mags posted:

speak for yourself im ugly as gently caress

thanks to climate change you can be HOT and UGLY AS gently caress at the same time!

:blessed:

Microplastics posted:

I need more information about what the nuclear ship is carrying before I pass judgement. Is it coal? It's coal, isn't it?

If it's good enough for the hard sail bulk carriers, then it's good enough for the nuke ships. Coal for everyone!

Salt Fish
Sep 11, 2003

Cybernetic Crumb

TACD posted:

Bhutan has the right idea, under-promise and over-deliver 👍🏻



I'm the implication that if Bhutan limited emissions to the green line that temperature increases would be limited to 1.5C.

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

Microplastics posted:

I need more information about what the nuclear ship is carrying before I pass judgement. Is it coal? It's coal, isn't it?
it’s treats for us

kater
Nov 16, 2010

why is coal the bad Christmas present vs some amalgam of recycled plastic ?

SixteenShells
Sep 30, 2021
objection, coal is already an amalgamation of recycled plastic

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toggle
Nov 7, 2005

i did some mowing yesterday in the early morning. humidity was 84% and the temp was, apparently, 31c. it felt a lot hotter than that, and it was truly an awful experience

there were also no insects or birds around due to the heat which made it eerily quiet on a mid morning. so what is the threshold of insect heat resistance? how hot is too hot for bug?

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