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NomNomNom
Jul 20, 2008
Please Work Out
A box of cheezits is five loving dollars at my local grocery store.

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Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

aniviron posted:



Rent has gone up. Groceries have gone up a crazy amount - almost everything I can think of that I buy regularly has gone up often about 50% in cost, and a few things have doubled in cost, in a couple rare cases tripled. Power & heat got scary for a while, though that has come back down a little. At least gas is relatively stable, though that's my smallest expense anyway. I already wasn't buying home goods, luxuries, or much of anything else. Maybe that's why my parents think the economy is great, because they have stock portfolios and don't even look at the price before getting groceries delivered because it doesn't matter to them, but for me, all the marginal costs that people in comfortable life situations can ignore are starting to cut me to ribbons.

This is also the case for a lot of my poor friends. It doesn't matter how good market indicators are on things we can't afford, if the cost of necessities goes up a disproportionate amount, we're hosed. There are a lot of poor people in this country; it doesn't strike me as particularly insane to think that there are a lot of people coming home with the thirds as many bags of groceries as they used to and feeling that, yes, there are problems right now.

yeah. The "confusing" indicators make perfect sense if you think about them for three seconds from the perspective of the people answering the pollster's questions.

"How are you doing economically" -- well, maybe I got a raise or a better job lately, personally i'm doing ok

"how do you feel about the economy" -- it's poo poo, I can't find a place to live and a hamburger is twenty bucks

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!

NomNomNom posted:

A box of cheezits is five loving dollars at my local grocery store.

Yeah I went shopping the other day and a bag of chips was 7 loving dollars. I’m financially stable and doing well, not living paycheck to paycheck, have savings, etc. I’ve had to increase my monthly grocery food budget because the poo poo I buy is more expensive now. I’ve also pretty much stopped buying snacks and junk food because I’m not paying 7 bucks for a bag of chips when they used to be what, half that price?

Another thing is it wasn’t that long ago that ordering pizza from dominos or whatever big chain pizza place was affordable and cheap. Now an order from dominos is like around the $30 range before tips. I can’t imagine any college student ordering pizza as a cheap meal option.

Boris Galerkin fucked around with this message at 13:50 on Dec 7, 2023

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Boris Galerkin posted:

Yeah I went shopping the other day and a bag of chips was 7 loving dollars. I’m financially stable and doing well, not living paycheck to paycheck, have savings, etc. I’ve had to increase my monthly grocery food budget because the poo poo I buy is more expensive now. I’ve also pretty much stopped buying snacks and junk food because I’m not paying 7 bucks for a bag of chips when they used to be what, half that price?

Another thing is it wasn’t that long ago that ordering pizza from dominos or whatever big chain pizza place was affordable and cheap. Now an order from dominos is like around the $30 range before tips. I can’t imagine any college student ordering pizza as a cheap meal option.

To be fair, Dominos' entire business model has always been about charging outrageous prices and then knocking them down with coupons and deals. Every Dominos has a $5.99 promotion where you can get two pizzas or a pizza/breadsticks/wings/desserts for $5.99 each, but the "normal" price for those things is all around $15 to make you think, "Whoa! 66% off! I gotta snatch this up!"

People paying full price at Dominos are explicitly being ripped off to subsidize more frequent customers/rewards members/coupon users as part of the business model.

Mid-Life Crisis
Jun 13, 2023

by Fluffdaddy
Everyone has heard record profits for all food companies throughout the pandemic and zero penalty for collusion etc. That’s where the angst is

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


Boris Galerkin posted:

Yeah I went shopping the other day and a bag of chips was 7 loving dollars. I’m financially stable and doing well, not living paycheck to paycheck, have savings, etc. I’ve had to increase my monthly grocery food budget because the poo poo I buy is more expensive now. I’ve also pretty much stopped buying snacks and junk food because I’m not paying 7 bucks for a bag of chips when they used to be what, half that price?

Another thing is it wasn’t that long ago that ordering pizza from dominos or whatever big chain pizza place was affordable and cheap. Now an order from dominos is like around the $30 range before tips. I can’t imagine any college student ordering pizza as a cheap meal option.

The point that the economists are making is that prices have gone up very quickly, but pay has gone up (on average) faster. If you are making the same that you were 5 years ago, you are worse off, but that is apparently not very common*. What is "affordable" changes with inflation. It's just that we've had decades of unusually low inflation set our expectations.


*I am, and I'm very salty about it, but I'm also not living paycheck to paycheck so I don't matter - I understand that my experience is not the norm, so I am the rare person who is doing worse personally, but I know that the economy is better as a whole.

KillHour fucked around with this message at 15:05 on Dec 7, 2023

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

Boris Galerkin posted:

I am not a statistician. My reading/take on this is that a super majority of Americans (75%+) regularly use social media, while a large (but not necessarily a majority) percentage of Americans consume news from social media. Social media sites push content to you via their algorithm, which necessarily means that everyone essentially gets news inside a bubble. I could have sworn someone posted a study a few days back showing how all of this stuff about the economy ultimately correlates to a person’s political leaning and what letter is next to the current president.

It's also worth pointing out that you don't even need to consume social media yourself to get your news from social media. Anyone who gets their news from social interaction is pretty much getting their news from social media today, since the people they are talking to are likely to be doing so.

The Top G
Jul 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy
No, Americans are not overwhelmingly and consistently wrong about their financial circumstances. That is not a thing that is happening. That is not a serious suggestion. It should be brutally damning for anyone to even consider that as a possibility for more than a split second.

Here are the possible reasons why your data doesn't line up with numerous surveys that keep proclaiming doom:

-Your data is bad
-You're measuring the wrong thing
-You're massaging the data to reach a conclusion wildly out of step with reality
-You've massaged the data so consistently that you've forgotten all the ways you've poisoned your own results and now you're legitimately confused by reality

If almost everyone is saying that things are bad then things are bad, and any data which says otherwise should be treated as extremely suspect.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Bellmaker posted:

Are we sure respondents know what median means or is there a possibility of a "should we bomb Agrabah" situation

I think there is a good chance that most people don't really know the economic terms. The Financial Times data analyst and pollster actually went into detail on Twitter the other day when asked about it. He says they explained the terms beforehand, but people still probably didn't understand them.

The year to year stuff is whatever. Everyone has gone over several theories that are likely:

- Inflation feels more painful to more people, even if it isn't technically worse. A major recession with 10% unemployment has damage disproportionately piled on to people at the bottom 10-15% of the income scale and the other 85% can be "unaffected," but everyone feels inflation.

- Economists vs normie definitions.

- Disproportionate impact, some people really have had real income go down. Also, people in the top 50% with secure jobs probably also noticed that places close earlier and are understaffed and hate it, even though that is a result of good labor market conditions for lower income workers for the first time in decades.

- Vibes from media/partisanship or pandemic shattering sense of security (but, only in the U.S.)

- Things like not being able to get cheap credit, mortgage rates being high and making it harder to sell your house and moves or buy a house, and the previously mentioned annoyances about a tight labor market from people who aren't service workers are all things that aren't measured in economic indicators, but could also explain things that upset people.

All feel like very plausible theories and probably play some part.

The big crazy thing is that people think every single economic indicator was better 30 years ago and that the average American was actually doing much better in the middle of the recession in the early 90's.

Here's the FT data analyst providing some of the definitions they gave to people and other background info on the study:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1732538062087893051
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1732540297945456737
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1732541904745636309
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1732516329003905134
https://twitter.com/jtrothwell/status/1732526354187329937
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1732531497104474577

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Many more people are more worried about the economy right now than they were during the height of the loving pandemic

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1732463709216186692

That is not rational.

The Top G posted:

If almost everyone is saying that things are bad then things are bad, and any data which says otherwise should be treated as extremely suspect.

Yeah you'd be right except for the fact that most people rate their financial situation as good or better. If it's not based on their own personal experience, so what's it based on?

zoux fucked around with this message at 15:13 on Dec 7, 2023

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

The Top G posted:

If almost everyone is saying that things are bad then things are bad, and any data which says otherwise should be treated as extremely suspect.

The main thing that is wrong is that their own answers say the opposite. The most common answer in America is "My financial situation is okay, but I know it is terrible for basically everyone else." Which can't be true if 55% to 65% are saying that.

The fact that it is happening for the first time ever and only in the U.S., when everyone uses the same metrics in other countries, seems to indicate this is not the case. There is no objective measurement where you can say that the U.S. economy is worse than Spain, yet 60% of Americans think it is dramatically worse than Spain.

You also have the opposite flip in history. Every economic indicator in 2006 was trending downward, but people kept insisting the economy was doing amazing because housing prices were soaring. The housing market eventually started to crash and we had the great recession. But, for two years, the average person thought the economy was doing great while the leading economic indicators all pointed to it getting worse.

The Top G
Jul 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

zoux posted:

Many more people are more worried about the economy right now than they were during the height of the loving pandemic

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1732463709216186692

That is not rational.


Lets see .. inflation hadn’t kicked into high gear yet, enhanced UI and Medicaid was in full swing, eviction moratoriums and mortgage forbearance meant you wouldn’t lose your home, interest rates were still low, stimulus checks were within recent memory. Vaccines were right around the corner and supposed to be the end of Covid and we didn’t know about reinfections so it looked like the pandemic was right about to end.

I think it’s understandable to have had more hope and optimism then.

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

KillHour posted:

The point that the economists are making is that prices have gone up very quickly, but pay has gone up (on average) faster. If you are making the same that you were 5 years ago, you are worse off, but that is apparently not very common*. What is "affordable" changes with inflation. It's just that we've had decades of unusually low inflation set our expectations.


*I am, and I'm very salty about it, but I'm also not living paycheck to paycheck so I don't matter - I understand that my experience is not the norm, so I am the rare person who is doing worse personally, but I know that the economy is better as a whole.

I wish I knew literally anyone for who this is true. Who is actually getting these pay raises? Everyone I know have seen raises below inflation, despite them traditionally getting raises well above it as they gain more seniority, it's a common complaint. Maybe that will change next year as their wages "catch up", but who knows.

Earlier comments mentioned that the bulk of these wage increases were in specific areas at specific levels - if the wages on average are going up faster than inflation, but wages for most actual people are not, that's gonna be seen as an issue, and that's very possible. That's also ignoring the many situations where their wages may have risen faster than inflation but are still behind where they "should" be if not for inflation.

GlyphGryph fucked around with this message at 15:22 on Dec 7, 2023

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

The Top G posted:

Lets see .. inflation hadn’t kicked into high gear yet, enhanced UI and Medicaid was in full swing, eviction moratoriums and mortgage forbearance meant you wouldn’t lose your home, interest rates were still low, stimulus checks were within recent memory. Vaccines were right around the corner and supposed to be the end of Covid and we didn’t know about reinfections so it looked like the pandemic was right about to end.

I think it’s understandable to have had more hope and optimism then.

Unemployment was 8.4% in August of 2020, it is insane to think that people had more "hope and optimism" at a time where thousands upon thousands of people were dying per day and "vaccines were right around the corner" is ridiculous. I was alive in August of 2020, so I can remember what it was like, it was not hopeful and optimistic about anything.

Angry_Ed
Mar 30, 2010




Grimey Drawer

The Top G posted:

Lets see .. inflation hadn’t kicked into high gear yet, enhanced UI and Medicaid was in full swing, eviction moratoriums and mortgage forbearance meant you wouldn’t lose your home, interest rates were still low, stimulus checks were within recent memory. Vaccines were right around the corner and supposed to be the end of Covid and we didn’t know about reinfections so it looked like the pandemic was right about to end.

I think it’s understandable to have had more hope and optimism then.

In August 2020 we were still 4 months away from first authorization for vaccines, and an additional 4 months after that before widespread availability. That is an interesting definition of "right around the corner".

Angry_Ed fucked around with this message at 15:29 on Dec 7, 2023

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

GlyphGryph posted:

I wish I knew literally anyone for who this is true. Who is actually getting these pay raises? Everyone I know have seen raises below inflation, despite them traditionally getting raises well above it as they gain more seniority, it's a common complaint.

Earlier comments mentioned that the bulk of these wage increases were in specific areas at specific levels - if the wages on average are going up faster than inflation, but wages for most actual people are not, that's gonna be seen as an issue, and that's very possible. That's also ignoring the many situations where their wages may have risen faster than inflation but are still behind where they "should" be if not for inflation.

People in the bottom 50th percentile of incomes have a roughly 2.4% increased real income compared to 2019 right now.

51st to 75th percentile has a roughly -2% change in real income compared to 2019 right now.

76th to 100th percentile have a roughly -2.5% change in real income compared to 2019 right now.

That means the median American (and mostly everyone making less than $33k) has seen their real wages go up.

That third quartile figure means probably another 5 to 10% also saw real wage gains.

So, roughly 55% to 60% of Americans have a higher real income now than they did in 2019 (concentrated overwhelmingly among people making less than $50k).

40% to 45% have a lower real income now than they did in 2019 (concentrated overwhelmingly among people making more than $50k).

BonoMan
Feb 20, 2002

Jade Ear Joe

GlyphGryph posted:

I wish I knew literally anyone for who this is true. Who is actually getting these pay raises? Everyone I know have seen raises below inflation, despite them traditionally getting raises well above it as they gain more seniority, it's a common complaint. Maybe that will change next year as their wages "catch up", but who knows.

Earlier comments mentioned that the bulk of these wage increases were in specific areas at specific levels - if the wages on average are going up faster than inflation, but wages for most actual people are not, that's gonna be seen as an issue, and that's very possible. That's also ignoring the many situations where their wages may have risen faster than inflation but are still behind where they "should" be if not for inflation.

Yeah I mean tech job data has to be skewing this data about pay raises right? Nobody I know is getting raises or anything remotely good enough to keep pace with the increases and I'm not in low level jobs. I keep hearing about "pay is increasing faster than inflation!" and literally EVERYONE I know is screaming "for loving WHO?!?!"

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

BonoMan posted:

Yeah I mean tech job data has to be skewing this data about pay raises right? Nobody I know is getting raises or anything remotely good enough to keep pace with the increases and I'm not in low level jobs. I keep hearing about "pay is increasing faster than inflation!" and literally EVERYONE I know is screaming "for loving WHO?!?!"

For the 50% of Americans making less than $33k per year and many of those making between $33k and $50k.

Generally not for the other 40% to 45% of Americans.

I think most Goons are likely falling way above the $33k income area and probably hang in social groups mostly comprised of people who make more than that as well.

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.
For what it's worth, personally speaking:

My economic prospects during that point in the pandemic were much better than they are now.
I am financially better off now, but that's not due to my current economic prospects being good (they are much worse) but because I saved up enough money over the pandemic to make it possible to buy a house while interests rates were still lowish.
I am spending significantly more of my income buying poo poo, but making significantly fewer discretionary purchases and am increasingly dissatisfied with what I'm getting for my money for the purchases I do make - and that feels like it is only going to get worse.

So I'm basically exactly the sort of "mystery person" confusing these economists - except that I am honest, I guess, about having no loving clue how the "economy as a whole" is doing and like most of these people am only really able to answer from my own personal perspective.

AtomikKrab
Jul 17, 2010

Keep on GOP rolling rolling rolling rolling.

I am making more money in my life right now than before

I am... pretty much the same situation economically as I was before because the prices of things I most commonly engage with such as food, have gone up banana levels. The economy is indeed bad even though I am "ok" because I should be IMPROVING my life situation given the increases in my wages.

I was able to the same thing as above

got a mortgage in 2019, refinanced it in 2021 for a stupidly low rate, thats locked in i'm... ok there, but literally every drat discretionary thing has gone up. I've had to cut out a lot of things I used to buy grocery wise because of the expenses.

AtomikKrab fucked around with this message at 15:42 on Dec 7, 2023

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

People in the bottom 50th percentile of incomes have a roughly 2.4% increased real income compared to 2019 right now.

51st to 75th percentile has a roughly -2% change in real income compared to 2019 right now.

76th to 100th percentile have a roughly -2.5% change in real income compared to 2019 right now.

That means the median American (and mostly everyone making less than $33k) has seen their real wages go up.

Err... wouldn't these numbers make it equally likely the median American has seen their real wages go down? They'd be right on the border between the increase and the decrease, so it could technically go either way, I guess, but I don't know how you're claiming "that means the median American..." from that data.

Also, is that individual or household?

It's also worth comparing this to what is the historical norm. The baseline for most people would be higher - about 6% real wage growth per year is what we had in the 2010s for the bottom 50th percentile, and is the rate most people would probably consider to be "the economy is doing well". A real wage growth at less than half of that would not be something they'd think is good. People hope their lives get better over time, especially after the scrimping and saving they had to do during the pandemic, not to stay roughly the same despite all that uncertainty and sacrifice.

BonoMan
Feb 20, 2002

Jade Ear Joe

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

For the 50% of Americans making less than $33k per year and many of those making between $33k and $50k.

Generally not for the other 40% to 45% of Americans.

I think most Goons are likely falling way above the $33k income area and probably hang in social groups mostly comprised of people who make more than that as well.

Ok so what impact can a tiny increase in low wages actually have on the ability to buy groceries when those folks were likely struggling to begin with?

It's ridiculous. I make decent money and can technically afford grocery increases. It just means I can pay less into retirement and that's just so utterly hosed up that it makes me see the economy as "bad."

Aztec Galactus
Sep 12, 2002

We also had a strengthened social safety net in 2020, so a lot of people who were unemployed found themselves in a better financial situation or had at least the breathing room to explore their options.

That's all gone now and it's never ever coming back. A huge pillar of the republican platform is making sure we never do 2020 again, and another pillar is cutting social programs. If something like covid happens again, every politician is going to clutch their pearls about inflation while the poor get turbofucked

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
For some reason. I like to think that we're all arguing with Andrew Tate in the political debate subforum of a comedy site that had its peak in the mid 2000s.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

BonoMan posted:

Ok so what impact can a tiny increase in low wages actually have on the ability to buy groceries when those folks were likely struggling to begin with?

It's ridiculous. I make decent money and can technically afford grocery increases. It just means I can pay less into retirement and that's just so utterly hosed up that it makes me see the economy as "bad."

If you have less money to spend on the same items, then your real income has gone down and you would not be a part of that ~55%.

You're mixing up "bad" and "better" and "personal vs overall" perception.

The same people were objectively worse off from 2019 and earlier, but said the economy was good during that point.

They also say their personal economic situation is unchanged or slightly better, but that the economy as a whole is terrible for everyone else. If 55% to 60% of people say they are doing okay, but they think everyone except them is doing terribly, then that can't be possible.

People in the bottom 50th percentile of incomes have existed forever and aren't a new creation. Historically, their views of "the economy" overall and "how am I doing personally?" basically matched each other 1 to 1. This is the first time that they haven't, and it's not just the first time it has ever happened, but the gap is huge. That is where the disconnect is and why it is interesting for people to study.

Devor
Nov 30, 2004
Lurking more.

zoux posted:

Many more people are more worried about the economy right now than they were during the height of the loving pandemic

That is not rational.


Pandemic: Wow the government is actually talking about helping us and making sure we have some minimum income during this emergency

Now: Oh, the government has decided against doing good things

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Devor posted:

Pandemic: Wow the government is actually talking about helping us and making sure we have some minimum income during this emergency

Now: Oh, the government has decided against doing good things

More people actually said their personal finances were WORSE during that period than now (even though for many it was objectively better because of the aid!)

That is the weird disconnect.

Pandemic:

Personal financial situation? Not great, but not horrible.
Overall economy? Not great, but not horrible.

Now:

Personal financial situation: Okay.
Overall economy: Worse than any period in American history except for the great depression and the very first month of the global financial crisis.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 15:54 on Dec 7, 2023

Devor
Nov 30, 2004
Lurking more.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

More people actually said their personal finances were WORSE during that period than now (even though for many it was objectively better because of the aid!)

That is the weird disconnect.

Pandemic:

Personal financial situation? Not great, but not horrible.
Overall economy? Not great, but not horrible.

Now:

Personal financial situation: Okay.
Overall economy: Worse than any period in American history except for the great depression and the very first month of the global financial crisis.

I guess it's quite fair to say it's not rational - but then people aren't rational.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Devor posted:

I guess it's quite fair to say it's not rational - but then people aren't rational.

Yeah, but that is the weird disconnect everyone is studying.

Their answers were actually pretty rational from 1939 through 2022. It was only then that the "irrationality" started.

There was a period of MUCH worse inflation in the 1970's and peoples' opinion of the economy overall and their personal financial situation still tracked pretty closely. So, it is not inflation on its own or the inherent irrationality of humanity on its own. That is what is interesting and people are trying to figure out.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 16:02 on Dec 7, 2023

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

The main thing that is wrong is that their own answers say the opposite. The most common answer in America is "My financial situation is okay, but I know it is terrible for basically everyone else." Which can't be true if 55% to 65% are saying that.


It absolutely makes perfect sense. I know my job situation is good or improving, but I also know inflation is a bitch and nobody can get a loan at a reasonable rate.

The framing of the two questions shifting from personal to general shifts what people have experience of.

Hieronymous Alloy fucked around with this message at 16:04 on Dec 7, 2023

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

zoux posted:

Many more people are more worried about the economy right now than they were during the height of the loving pandemic

That is not rational.


It's absolutely rational. If a bear is breaking down your door you aren't worried about the rent. Not in that moment, anyway.

FLIPADELPHIA
Apr 27, 2007

Heavy Shit
Grimey Drawer
I don't have any data to support this, but anecdotally, I think it's also important to mention that our media has been rubbing themselves raw with "Finance Expert Brian Shithead says Economic Collapse Is Right Around The Corner" for the better part of 2 years. Anyone with any kind of social media or news feed has been inundated with this poo poo for a sustained period. Combine that with 50% of the population believing this is the worst economy since the Great Depression because a communist is President, and the actual real number of people who are answering in good faith and also struggling (this number is not anywhere close to zero) then the larger picture makes more sense. People are swayed by what they read, and whether maliciously or just for clicks, the story of the last few years has been "the economy is doing well but actually that's terrible news because _______".

Kagrenak
Sep 8, 2010

Mid-Life Crisis posted:

Everyone has heard record profits for all food companies throughout the pandemic and zero penalty for collusion etc. That’s where the angst is

FYI the justice department just recently announced a groundbreaking lawsuit against an agricultural pricing data aggregation service which allowed a trust formation in a non-traditional manner. It was posted and discussed in this thread, but like lots of the extremely good things Biden's appointees are doing, it's got very little traction.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-agri-stats-operating-extensive-information-exchanges-among-meat

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

FLIPADELPHIA posted:

I don't have any data to support this, but anecdotally, I think it's also important to mention that our media has been rubbing themselves raw with "Finance Expert Brian Shithead says Economic Collapse Is Right Around The Corner" for the better part of 2 years. Anyone with any kind of social media or news feed has been inundated with this poo poo for a sustained period. Combine that with 50% of the population believing this is the worst economy since the Great Depression because a communist is President, and the actual real number of people who are answering in good faith and also struggling (this number is not anywhere close to zero) then the larger picture makes more sense. People are swayed by what they read, and whether maliciously or just for clicks, the story of the last few years has been "the economy is doing well but actually that's terrible news because _______".
That's my impression. "Economy sucks" isn't a new thing, as others have posted, responses to these questions tended to correlate pretty well, and still do in e.g. Europe.


GlyphGryph posted:

Err... wouldn't these numbers make it equally likely the median American has seen their real wages go down? They'd be right on the border between the increase and the decrease, so it could technically go either way, I guess, but I don't know how you're claiming "that means the median American..." from that data.

Also, is that individual or household?

It's also worth comparing this to what is the historical norm. The baseline for most people would be higher - about 6% real wage growth per year is what we had in the 2010s for the bottom 50th percentile, and is the rate most people would probably consider to be "the economy is doing well". A real wage growth at less than half of that would not be something they'd think is good. People hope their lives get better over time, especially after the scrimping and saving they had to do during the pandemic, not to stay roughly the same despite all that uncertainty and sacrifice.
I posted the actual chart a while ago.



Median and above are roughtly flat, everyone below that like before the pandemic.

mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 16:15 on Dec 7, 2023

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

The Top G posted:

No, Americans are not overwhelmingly and consistently wrong about their financial circumstances. That is not a thing that is happening. That is not a serious suggestion. It should be brutally damning for anyone to even consider that as a possibility for more than a split second.

Here are the possible reasons why your data doesn't line up with numerous surveys that keep proclaiming doom:

-Your data is bad
-You're measuring the wrong thing
-You're massaging the data to reach a conclusion wildly out of step with reality
-You've massaged the data so consistently that you've forgotten all the ways you've poisoned your own results and now you're legitimately confused by reality

If almost everyone is saying that things are bad then things are bad, and any data which says otherwise should be treated as extremely suspect.

One logical conclusion from this is that the economy is much worse for Republicans than for Democrats, and it abruptly went from the best economy ever to worse than 2008 between November 2020 and January 2021. It's hard to think of some real thing that could explain it, maybe that was when the woke mob started firing all the Republicans and replacing them with MS-13 members?

Rogue AI Goddess
May 10, 2012

I enjoy the sight of humans on their knees.
That was a joke... unless..?
My financial situation is better now than in 2020 because of a one-off windfall from my parent's death. This does not translate into optimism for the general economy.

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

mobby_6kl posted:

That's my impression. "Economy sucks" isn't a new thing, as others have posted, responses to these questions tended to correlate pretty well, and still do in e.g. Europe.

I posted the actual chart a while ago.



Median and above are roughtly flat, everyone below that like before the pandemic.

This is pretty interesting. Everyone, even the 10%th percentile who is doing the best, have seen a reduction in wage growth post-pandemic compared to pre-pandemic.

I do think the most likely cause of the disconnect is still just the overall public messaging that things are getting worse though.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
I think there is likely a lot of factors. The disconnect is the weirdest part from a sociological/economic/psychological perspective.

For all of modern history, people basically said, "If I am doing okay, then the economy is okay. If I am doing poorly, then the economy is doing poorly." Something broke that in 2022, but we don't really know why. The pandemic didn't break it, the great depression didn't break it, 18% mortgage rates in the 1970's and early 80's didn't break it, and the financial collapse of 2008 didn't break it.

For the messaging part, I think part of it might be related to this data:



People were predicting a huge recession was 3 months away for the last 2.5 years and disaster was around the corner. Lots of bad news.

All of sudden, in the last 4 months or so, lots of reports of good news and improvement.

The median person today is objectively better off today than they were in 2019, but it is also only slightly better off. Whereas, GDP is significantly better off because the global economy opening back up and every other major economic power in the E.U and China having problems enabled the U.S. to get producing and exporting much more rapidly.

So, there could be a "The news said everything was about to collapse for 2.5 years and things were getting worse. Now, they are saying that everything is rapidly improving, but things are only slightly better for me personally" (or slightly worse if you are in the top 40% to 45% of incomes). So it could be still feeling like everything is about 3 months away from a major recession and then the very good overall economic news doesn't feel congruent with the moderate improvement for the median person.

But, my theory is also sort of already disproven because historically people would say the economy itself was just okay, even if it was growing quickly, if they themselves were just doing okay. So they should be saying that the economy is doing okay or so-so if it matched their personal increase. Instead, they say they are doing okay to so-so, but everyone else is doing terrible. :shrug:

Maybe it is just the fact that there is a gap between real income and real GDP for the first time in recent memory is what is breaking the usually predictable cycle of opinion?

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

James Garfield posted:

One logical conclusion from this is that the economy is much worse for Republicans than for Democrats, and it abruptly went from the best economy ever to worse than 2008 between November 2020 and January 2021. It's hard to think of some real thing that could explain it, maybe that was when the woke mob started firing all the Republicans and replacing them with MS-13 members?

It's not just Republicans, though. The shift was dramatically larger among Republicans, but it happened with Democrats and independents to a sizable degree too.

This is sort of an example: One indisputably good thing the last few years is the very tight labor market for the first time in 30 years.

The unemployment rate is 3.9% and there were a record low number of layoffs. But, everyone, including Democrats and Independents to a degree, think it was a record year for most layoffs in history.

https://twitter.com/besttrousers/status/1732198320297107597

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 16:27 on Dec 7, 2023

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MickeyFinn
May 8, 2007
Biggie Smalls and Junior Mafia some mark ass bitches

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Here's the FT data analyst providing some of the definitions they gave to people and other background info on the study:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1732538798045630509


This question is horribly worded. Inflation is not the "rate of increase in consumer prices over the previous 12 months." One measure of inflation commonly used in the media is the actual increase in the prices of a specific basket of goods, excluding things that Americans engage with every day, over the last 12 months. The 30-year follow ups are stupid as well. 30 years ago I was 12 and the economy was loving rad. All I had to do was come in for dinner and it was there. Food and rent were free. This guy needs to be ejected from polling permanently.

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