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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:Because it isn't accurate for an individual. Nobody is getting raises to match inflation at. To get that benefit you have to get a new job with more pay, which means nobody making minimum wage saw any raise in wages and just got to enjoy getting kicked in the balls by inflation. But just because they have the opportunity to have a wage increase everything is just fine according to the experts. Seems like most of these individuals believe they are doing well  It's not according to "the experts" it's according to peoples' personal assessment of their own situation. And that specific survey was only 18-29 year olds, the segment of the population that is supposedly suffering the most. And yet, a supermajority of people under the age of 29 rate their own economic situation as "good" or "very good". zoux fucked around with this message at 18:34 on Dec 7, 2023 |
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Dec 7, 2023 18:32
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/metzgov/status/1732791096491577616 Was it one of those emergency exists that automatically triggers the fire alarm? Otherwise I don't see how you could do it by accident.
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Dec 7, 2023 18:33
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:Because it isn't accurate for an individual. Nobody is getting raises to match inflation at. To get that benefit you have to get a new job with more pay, which means nobody making minimum wage saw any raise in wages and just got to enjoy getting kicked in the balls by inflation. But just because they have the opportunity to have a wage increase everything is just fine according to the experts. That's just kind of how statistics work. If 9 out of 10 dentists recommend flossing every day, then it is fair to say that the median dentist says you should floss every day. The existence of the 1 who says you should not does eliminate the existence of the other 9. But, if you only ever went to the 1 who says flossing is fatal, then you are going to have the experience of 100% of dentists saying flossing will kill you.
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Dec 7, 2023 18:34
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BougieBitch posted:I had a somewhat horrifying thought that makes perfect goddamn sense: the reason this is happening could easily be because people paid down a huge amount of debt during the pandemic. A revolving loan is like a credit card. You’re granted the ability to borrow up to some limit and pay it back and repeat. I’m kinda surprised that credit card debt has gone down though.
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Dec 7, 2023 18:34
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zoux posted:Also, all this unusual concern from poll-answering Americans didn’t exist prior to 2021, when personal sentiment matched actual economic indicators Interest rates started going up in March 2022.
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Dec 7, 2023 18:35
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mobby_6kl posted:Was it one of those emergency exists that automatically triggers the fire alarm? Otherwise I don't see how you could do it by accident. No. He either definitely pulled it on purpose or was being very dumb and panicked as soon as he accidentally hit the alarm. https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1732800317031378947
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Dec 7, 2023 18:36
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mobby_6kl posted:Was it one of those emergency exists that automatically triggers the fire alarm? Otherwise I don't see how you could do it by accident. Yeah, it's pretty fuckin' obvious he pulled it deliberately. Thought he was going to have his Big drat Hero maverick moment and the applause would drown out any downsides.
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Dec 7, 2023 18:40
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zoux posted:Also, all this unusual concern from poll-answering Americans didn’t exist prior to 2021, when personal sentiment matched actual economic indicators Great reason to dig deeper then! Poll-answering Americans don't answer questions by first consulting economic indicators, and poll-answering Americans no longer match one-to-one with when they talk about their own finances and habits versus "the economy"- then what are they talking about now? I gave a handful of hypotheses not because I have the right answer but because I think the tool's results being flawed is a reason to attempt to improve the tool. One cannot blame the studied population into answering "honestly" when you don't actually care what their honest answer means.
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Dec 7, 2023 18:41
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zoux posted:Seems like most of these individuals believe they are doing well To be fair, if you are limiting it to ages 18-29, then there are probably a good amount of people responding who are not really exposed to "the real world" because they are in college or living with their parents. I don't know if that is the case for most people in that study, but just a factor that could give you an unrealistically positive impression of your personal situation.
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Dec 7, 2023 18:41
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Kagrenak posted:I went back and looked and It's because those graphs also only went to Jan/Feb 2022. I haven’t found a good one like that that gets up to 2023. One can get general statements about 2023 salaries and average increases and the Fred stuff. But what I want is the information in that graph that includes this year. I’m thinking it’ll be next year.
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Dec 7, 2023 18:50
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FlamingLiberal posted:It continues to drive me loving insane that Biden is getting targeted for his son getting jobs when Trump had like half of his family in the White House for four years, often without security clearances That's exactly why they're doing it. It's their classic "accuse our opponents of our own sins" move. They started going after Hunter to preempt and allow themselves to claim "whataboutism" or "deflection" if anyone went after Javanka or the boys.
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Dec 7, 2023 18:52
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BougieBitch posted:Hourly work is exceptionally easy to quit and start elsewhere - I stopped listening to your argument right here. Hourly wage work is not something you can just swap easily. You have to apply, get picked, get interviewed, often pass a piss test, and who knows what other barriers there are. You're also probably working full time and can't just take a sick day to do any of this because you don't get much of those benefits as an hourly worker. What a post username combo
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Dec 7, 2023 19:08
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My takeaway from that poll is that there are a lot of people lying to themselves about how well they're doing in comparison to everyone else. It's not new, it seems like people would rather die than admit they're not at least 'middle-class' (whatever that means)
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Dec 7, 2023 19:26
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:I stopped listening to your argument right here. Yeah, this is where my girlfriend is at right now. Quitting is hella-easy, but it's been a nightmare for her to find anything at her skill level because of that combination of "very few available jobs" and "lots of people who want those jobs." And that's for the jobs even remotely worth taking, to say nothing of the "we expect you to work 60 hours for the pay of 40, we are your family and your world now" poo poo jobs that don't stay filled for long for a reason.
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Dec 7, 2023 19:26
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I don't think a sub-4% unemployment rate equates to both "very few available jobs" and "lots of people who want those jobs" unless you're working in a specific industry with lots of current layoffs like tech (although I don't know what the tech unemployment rate is, it's not like tech is now a dead industry). Edit: Even if you want to say that the % is bullshit, it's still relatively/directionally extremely low when compared to the last 50 years. Quixzlizx fucked around with this message at 19:45 on Dec 7, 2023 |
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Dec 7, 2023 19:41
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I kind of wonder if maybe the upper quartile not making gains compared to people below them or what they're used to might be skewing the general view of 'the economy' vs your personal situation. Elites always have an outsized impact on pretty much any public discourse and if your boss/manager/local business owner is talking about how the economy is bad, hey those guys know 'the economy'(and might get quoted in the news, etc) even if I'm doing ok But I guess it's likely that situation has happened in the past without the same divergence
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Dec 7, 2023 19:43
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Quixzlizx posted:I don't think a sub-4% unemployment rate equates to both "very few available jobs" and "lots of people who want those jobs" unless you're working in a specific industry with lots of current layoffs like tech (although I don't know what the tech unemployment rate is, it's not like tech is now a dead industry). The problem with job hunting is that it is also extremely automated and algorithmic now. If one doesn’t know how to write a resume specifically to each application and navigate a portal then a human being never sees one’s resume. That would feel like listings are fake bullshit to a lot of folks who don’t have that sophistication. Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 20:58 on Dec 7, 2023 |
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Dec 7, 2023 19:53
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The new rule to seize pharmaceutical patents from companies whose drugs are priced too high or are not making them publicly available (aka "March-in" rights) will have a 60 day comment period and then HHS will begin implementation. PhRMA has already released a statement opposing the policy and will likely sue once the 60 days are up. quote:Ahead of the announcement, Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) spokesperson Megan Van Etten issued a statement responding to the proposed framework, saying, “This would be yet another loss for American patients who rely on public-private sector collaboration to advance new treatments and cures. The Administration is sending us back to a time when government research sat on a shelf, not benefitting anyone.” quote:“If march-in rights are misused, companies can no longer trust the government as a partner. No one will be willing to commercialize something if they can’t protect their investment.” There was no announcement from the Health and Human Services about what drugs they may target, but one under consideration is Xtandi - a drug for treating prostate cancer that currently costs between $160,000 and $180,000 per year. HHS has previously considered using march-in rights on the drug earlier this year, but declined because price alone was not currently one of the categories that qualified a product for march-in rights. https://apnews.com/article/biden-drug-prices-patents-2024-campaign-f92da4ee89814d3ab89a909399bf4c85 joe football posted:I kind of wonder if maybe the upper quartile not making gains compared to people below them or what they're used to might be skewing the general view of 'the economy' vs your personal situation. Elites always have an outsized impact on pretty much any public discourse and if your boss/manager/local business owner is talking about how the economy is bad, hey those guys know 'the economy'(and might get quoted in the news, etc) even if I'm doing ok The top 40 to 45th percentile incomes aren't even necessarily "elites" in the common sense. It is a lot of general white collar workers making $50k or more.
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Dec 7, 2023 19:54
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/metzgov/status/1732791096491577616
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Dec 7, 2023 19:58
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Quixzlizx posted:I don't think a sub-4% unemployment rate equates to both "very few available jobs" and "lots of people who want those jobs" unless you're working in a specific industry with lots of current layoffs like tech (although I don't know what the tech unemployment rate is, it's not like tech is now a dead industry). I live in Seattle, a city hit hard by the tech layoffs and the job market is absolutely brutal right now. I know quite a few people laid off a year ago that are still trying to find work, and every job posting gets 100s of applicants at a minimum. Not just from local Seattleites but also from people around the country. It is not at all easy to find a job right now. From my perspective here in Seattle, the economy is nowhere near being "good" and even the employed people feel the same way here. And 90+% of the people I know are white collar professionals with masters degrees making six figures.
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Dec 7, 2023 20:02
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Making more money for less work than any point in my life as one of those below median low skilled workers very explicitly because my boss is desperate to keep me around because he can't hire anyone* and I very much doubt he's offering that much below market if he's being willing to bump the lay of rhe people he does have kn response, very much does not seem like lots of people who want few available jobs to me. (or rather he can hire people for the less physically demanding half of the business, so clearly he is in fact getting the fact that there are openings out there where people can see, but even that has been slow going and the only slightly physically demanding part, nothing.) Edit: this is 50 miles south of Seattle, to contrast with the poster above me.
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Dec 7, 2023 20:08
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Full list and press announcement: Man this is some legit good poo poo, this is stuff I was talking about wanting to see back when Obama is in office and frustrated no one seemed to care about or want to do anything about, and it loving sucks that people are gonna continue to not care about it, since this are moves to actually fix a lot of the poo poo that's broken - and way more than I expected him to do what with him not having a supportive legislature behind him. zoux posted:Maybe everyone just has their own personal definition of what 'the economy" means. Do economists and financial professionals even have a shared definition of what "the economy" means? Because I'm not sure how it could be any other way. Of course everyone has their own personal definition, it's an intentionally vague and non-specific term. zoux posted:People spend less and save more if they think the economy is bad. Another revealed preference that contradicts the polling data. This is also only true under certain circumstances, its not generally true. And the mechanics of how this happens and how sustainable those alternatives are are important, too. GlyphGryph fucked around with this message at 20:14 on Dec 7, 2023 |
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Dec 7, 2023 20:08
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The March-In rights stuff seems great but I can't imagine that it survives any amount of court scrutiny
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Dec 7, 2023 20:09
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Mustang posted:I live in Seattle, a city hit hard by the tech layoffs and the job market is absolutely brutal right now. I know quite a few people laid off a year ago that are still trying to find work, and every job posting gets 100s of applicants at a minimum. Not just from local Seattleites but also from people around the country. It is not at all easy to find a job right now. I didn't say anything about how good the economy is, just that it doesn't seem to bear out that there are very few available jobs and way too many people trying to fill them. Inflation was partially being fueled by a labor shortage. If Amazon and Microsoft both laid off 20k people or whatever this year, I'm guessing that could cause a local shock to tech workers in the Seattle area.
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Dec 7, 2023 20:10
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Kathy Manning, the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Relations Committee, is cancelling her plans to run for re-election because the North Carolina legislature overturned their court-ordered congressional maps. Her district was gerrymandered from a D+4 district to a R+11 district. The North Carolina Supreme Court had imposed a court-ordered redistricting map for 2022, but the Supreme Court is elected and gained a Republican majority that withdrew its previous ruling. The previous maps were 7R - 7D and the new maps are 11R - 3D. The state legislature has a Republican supermajority and can override the Democratic governor's veto. https://twitter.com/RepKManning/status/1732835587554468053
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Dec 7, 2023 20:15
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Kathy Manning, the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Relations Committee, is cancelling her plans to run for re-election because the North Carolina legislature overturned their court-ordered congressional maps. Her district was gerrymandered from a D+4 district to a R+11 district. They also only have a supermajority because a they ran a fake Democrat who switched after they came up short by 1 seat.
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Dec 7, 2023 20:23
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Sorry it's the NY Post but some details on the mass shooter at UNLV yesterday: 67-year old former ECU assoc. prof. Motive appears to be that he didn't get a professorship at UNLV Very intelligent: quote:During that time, he also ran a personal website about his life, in which he posted a 15-page theory claiming he decoded the messages left by the Zodiac Killer, who operated in Northern California in the late 1960s.
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Dec 7, 2023 20:39
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What was the true meaning of Leonardo DiCaprio’s 2010 film “Inception" he discovered?
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Dec 7, 2023 20:41
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:What was the true meaning of Leonardo DiCaprio’s 2010 film “Inception" he discovered? He was dead the whole time.
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Dec 7, 2023 20:42
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CNN has a report of the threats left against elected officials, read the whole thing here: https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/07/politics/threats-us-public-officials-democracy-invs/index.html But some highlights: quote:At least 41% of all the cases across the decade were politically motivated. People are unhinged and Trump continues to terrorize our politics.
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Dec 7, 2023 20:48
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It almost feels pointless to figure out what's going on with the economy based on any currently available studies, since the resumption of student loan payments probably isn't reflected in the data yet. That's going to be just lovely I'm sure.
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Dec 7, 2023 20:48
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I'm trying to find out the secret to Leonardo DiCaprio's 2010 movie "Inception" from his website. I know people suspect he was mentally ill, but just looking at his website homepage seems like proof. Only a crazy person would design a homepage like this:  
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Dec 7, 2023 20:49
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Mooseontheloose posted:CNN has a report of the threats left against elected officials, read the whole thing here: https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/07/politics/threats-us-public-officials-democracy-invs/index.html That lede quote:By the time the FBI first showed up at Kevin Patrick Smith’s home in early February, he’d already left dozens of threatening voice messages for US Senator Jon Tester. The loving FBI shows up at your door and tells you to stop and you can't. That's pathological. e: this happens like three times in that article to different people, including a 77-yo guy who ended up brandishing a gun on the second visit and got shot and killed zoux fucked around with this message at 20:55 on Dec 7, 2023 |
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Dec 7, 2023 20:51
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I'm trying to find out the secret to Leonardo DiCaprio's 2010 movie "Inception" from his website. I know people suspect he was mentally ill, but just looking at his website homepage seems like proof. Only a crazy person would design a homepage like this: If the Drudge Report was a professor's website resume.
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Dec 7, 2023 20:54
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zoux posted:That lede yeah it sounds to me like alot of these folks are either super online poisoned and are pushing 40 or older and they just get tired of their "little lives". my uncle basicaly believes all the insane Chud conspiracy poo poo.
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Dec 7, 2023 21:06
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah it sounds to me like alot of these folks are either super online poisoned and are pushing 40 or older and they just get tired of their "little lives". my uncle basicaly believes all the insane Chud conspiracy poo poo. My father, who grew up in Jackson MS in the mid sixties and was placed into a private school because of integration, absolutely could've gone down that path, but my mother, who is not a liberal but just a decent person, despised Fox News and forbade it from being in the house. He died over the summer and I'm glad that for his entire life he never fell into that spiral and was a pleasant, kind person until the end. You read those stories about Fox News orphans and it's so sad, it's like losing your mom or dad twice. And so many of them describe them as normal, happy people before they fell into the vortex. I've seen that happen with some of my extended family and it's all from right wing media.
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Dec 7, 2023 21:12
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I'm trying to find out the secret to Leonardo DiCaprio's 2010 movie "Inception" from his website. I know people suspect he was mentally ill, but just looking at his website homepage seems like proof. Only a crazy person would design a homepage like this:
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Dec 7, 2023 21:26
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zoux posted:My father, who grew up in Jackson MS in the mid sixties and was placed into a private school because of integration, absolutely could've gone down that path, but my mother, who is not a liberal but just a decent person, despised Fox News and forbade it from being in the house. He died over the summer and I'm glad that for his entire life he never fell into that spiral and was a pleasant, kind person until the end. You read those stories about Fox News orphans and it's so sad, it's like losing your mom or dad twice. And so many of them describe them as normal, happy people before they fell into the vortex. I've seen that happen with some of my extended family and it's all from right wing media. I am happy that my dad isnt fox person, he is conservative, mostly fiscaly but he is mostly a moderate and old, He loving hates what the GOP is now. if its trump, he will vote biden, because trump and january 6th and etc scared the poo poo out of him and i think there are alot of others like him. they dont like biden but the current GOP scares them alot. also he voted for the liberterian in 2016.
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Dec 7, 2023 21:32
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:This could be a major thing, but we have to see how it plays out. The eyeglass thing is a genuine attempt but unless they target EssilorLuxottica directly I don’t think it’ll do much; they own too many of the places you’d take that prescription otherwise. But yeah, all told this would be amazing if they don’t get stomped by the Supreme Court.
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Dec 7, 2023 21:35
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zoux posted:Sorry it's the NY Post but some details on the mass shooter at UNLV yesterday: I'm not sure I've ever seen an argument so quickly defeat itself.
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Dec 7, 2023 21:40
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