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Zephyris posted:edit: i feel compelled to say you should research just how volatile this is. not for the faint of heart or shaky nerves. i dont even think short volatility will blow you up as fast as this can if you over size God bless you for trading natty. I have traded it half a dozen times and never made money once, even when I tried to invert myself the last time. Whatever it is that makes that price move I am somehow incapable of understanding.
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Dec 14, 2023 13:56
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| # ? Jun 3, 2024 18:32 |
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its big move in the last week or two was just due to unusually warm weather sitting across most of the US. https://vxtwitter.com/MikeZaccardi/status/1733224625234977079?s=20 so if you can predict the weather better than goldman’s commodities desk…
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Dec 14, 2023 14:56
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Joink posted:Yesterday before Fed speaking, I bought calls few strikes otm on Spy, and puts same few strikes otm on Spy. After the rally started, I sold the put contracts for a loss, and will sell the calls at market open today. Anyway is their a name for this strategy, essentially hoping for a direction and not sideways action. Its called a Strangle and yes it can be profitable but generally requires a really big move, the market makers are aware of this so IV will be much higher before big events like data releases, FOMC, earnings calls etc. meaning that the contracts will be much more expensive to buy then usual. And you have to factor in the IV crush that occurs AFTER the release that will decrease the value of the contracts. One way to play them is to buy them in advance of these events and sell them right before to take advantage of the IV increase. Ive done this before earnings calls on big names like NVDA and TSLA where both the call and the put side end up being profitable just due to the higher IV.
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Dec 14, 2023 17:06
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Welcome back F, that was a brutal time after the earnings report
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Dec 14, 2023 18:51
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Welcome back every stock. Just a few more massive pops and I'll be breaking even.
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Dec 14, 2023 19:47
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Sokani posted:Welcome back every stock. Just a few more massive pops and I'll be breaking even. You're begging for a "few more massive pops" when the market is either at ATHs or a stone's throw away?
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Dec 14, 2023 19:51
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SKULL.GIF posted:You're begging for a "few more massive pops" when the market is either at ATHs or a stone's throw away? Yeah, should I beg for it to go down?
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Dec 14, 2023 19:59
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The RYCEY I got at $1.81 is now worth $3.83. It was at a relative peak in Sept 2021 when I got it (rip) and bottomed out at $0.71 in Sept 2022. It's unlikely to keep growing at this rate, but Bloomberg and Reuters did pump it up half a month ago. It's also still facing various legal issues due to corruption and bribery.
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Dec 14, 2023 20:20
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dipwood posted:The RYCEY I got at $1.81 is now worth $3.83. It was at a relative peak in Sept 2021 when I got it (rip) and bottomed out at $0.71 in Sept 2022. It's unlikely to keep growing at this rate, but Bloomberg and Reuters did pump it up half a month ago. It's also still facing various legal issues due to corruption and bribery. Nice. I remember it being a value trap for the longest time; someday, the story went, the market for aircraft engines would thrive again. Guess we’re there now?
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Dec 14, 2023 20:34
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SKULL.GIF posted:You're begging for a "few more massive pops" when the market is either at ATHs or a stone's throw away? The market is being propped up by AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, NVDA, META, MSFT, TSLA accounting for almost all of S&P 500 gains this year. The other 493 are collectively down 3% last I checked. The All Country World 3000 index is also down excluding the magnificent 7
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Dec 15, 2023 02:34
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https://twitter.com/HindenburgRes/status/1735743050058437034?s=20 love these guys. $MSS is down 84% today
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Dec 15, 2023 20:29
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Agronox posted:God bless you for trading natty. I have traded it half a dozen times and never made money once, even when I tried to invert myself the last time. So TL;DR: - DO NOT EVER short KOLD calls above $2.50ish (lol I did ofc) - You *ideally* want to do ratios from $2.50->$2.25ish - Sell nakeds OTM until $2.00 - Sell ATM if you dare below that The reasonably good thing is that if you are willing to roll aggressively, roll yield is hilariously high, but you can be offsides or rolled way out in a hurry. The product is leveraged which helps you, but sometimes the underlying will have negative roll yield which will work against you. The longest period of sub-$2 NG was about ~6 months. TDA demanded about $7-8k per naked short call, so if you don't have a gigantic port or portfolio margin this could keep you from doing other trades as you bag hold for a *while*. Happy Trading! Zephyris fucked around with this message at 21:27 on Dec 15, 2023 |
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Dec 15, 2023 20:56
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https://twitter.com/youwouldntpost/status/1735477765682626781
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Dec 15, 2023 21:02
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Did BUD sales recover? I know at one point it was down not only because of the stupid boycott crap but also because they stopped selling in russia or something
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Dec 15, 2023 21:05
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I did that with NKE when the Colin Kapernick kerfuffle happened. Buy calls on short term woke dips.
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Dec 15, 2023 21:10
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DeadFatDuckFat posted:Did BUD sales recover? I know at one point it was down not only because of the stupid boycott crap but also because they stopped selling in russia or something Kid Rock is apparently back to drinking Bud with the ludicrous statement that “they got the message”
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Dec 15, 2023 21:18
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Without being terminally invested in culture war narratives one might glance at a stock ending the year right around where it started with 10-20% variations in between and shrug their shoulders.
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Dec 15, 2023 21:59
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Woodchip posted:Welcome back F, that was a brutal time after the earnings report  I wish I'd averaged down a bit but I'm glad F is not giving me as much anxiety now
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Dec 16, 2023 06:14
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Sokani posted:Yeah, should I beg for it to go down? Yes, actually. I think you're a livestock-brained bovine with no exit plan beyond "hold and pray" given that you're not even breaking even despite the market going on a historic 6-week rally of a steepness unmatched in history. You should be praying that the market exhibits sensible price-discovery behavior that would give sustainability to this rally rather than an infinite spiral of speculative greed that, historically, inevitably ends in a colossal crash in valuation.
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Dec 16, 2023 06:24
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SKULL.GIF posted:Yes, actually. I think you're a livestock-brained bovine with no exit plan beyond "hold and pray" given that you're not even breaking even despite the market going on a historic 6-week rally of a steepness unmatched in history. You should be praying that the market exhibits sensible price-discovery behavior that would give sustainability to this rally rather than an infinite spiral of speculative greed that, historically, inevitably ends in a colossal crash in valuation. 
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Dec 16, 2023 06:45
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SKULL.GIF posted:I think you're a livestock-brained bovine with no exit plan beyond "hold and pray" I prefer 'bull-headed'
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Dec 16, 2023 19:38
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Anyone swing trading GOON/NDRA has had a great past few weeks. Up over 63% in the past week and 140% in the past month. Catch the hot potato without getting burned and win a prize!
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Dec 20, 2023 19:32
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dang I think my $1600 investment is worth over a hundred dollars again, nice
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Dec 20, 2023 20:36
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I'm not losing money, I'm tax loss harvesting
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Dec 20, 2023 20:50
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What news at ~2pm triggered the sell off today?
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Dec 20, 2023 22:36
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Cacafuego posted:What news at ~2pm triggered the sell off today? There doesn't appear to be a reason aside from low volumes leading into Christmas and people taking profits from a series of huge up days. Santa Claus Hangover?
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Dec 20, 2023 23:06
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Someone noticed we had almost 2 months straight of green days pushing the entire market up 15-20%?
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Dec 20, 2023 23:14
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"sell on Sacagawea day and go away"
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Dec 20, 2023 23:15
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Subvisual Haze posted:Someone noticed we had almost 2 months straight of green days pushing the entire market up 15-20%? What are you talking about? Stocks only go up
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Dec 20, 2023 23:27
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Some are blaming 0DTE options again. Despite them largely being more institutionally traded now than retail traded.
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Dec 21, 2023 03:09
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xgalaxy posted:Some are blaming 0DTE options again. Despite them largely being more institutionally traded now than retail traded. That would make it more likely to have a tangible market effect, not less, given retail is comparatively a tiny slice of overall activity.
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Dec 21, 2023 03:49
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No way it was a 0dte thing
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Dec 21, 2023 04:13
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Toalpaz posted:No way it was a 0dte thing Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't, it doesn't really matter either way because once the market starts picking up a clear intraday direction the 0DTE starts chasing that direction in heavy volume.
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Dec 21, 2023 04:15
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People were saying it was pretty much perfectly timed to the Treasury auction that happened today
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Dec 21, 2023 04:42
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I imagine the market is 90% automated stop losses and algos chasing their own tails just like the rest of the internet
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Dec 21, 2023 04:51
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SKULL.GIF posted:That would make it more likely to have a tangible market effect, not less, given retail is comparatively a tiny slice of overall activity. Yea. What I meant was that the sentiment was more on the false belief that 0DTE == retail and retail are idiots and therefore 0DTE == bad. So lets blame them.
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Dec 21, 2023 19:09
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https://twitter.com/PelosiTracker_/status/1738220696466247698
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Dec 22, 2023 18:03
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I still don't entirely get this strategy. I'm assuming she bought a few weeks ago, so if held to expiration or close to it, it will be long term capital gains... And she's getting leverage by buying deep itm calls instead of the stock, but there are other ways leverage up! And this way you have to realize the gain (or loss) next year, you don't have the ability to defer anything. I guess it's an easy way to gain leverage at the expense of flexibility.
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Dec 22, 2023 18:25
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Why would someone buy extremely ITM like that? There's a lot of potential downside and the upside wouldn't be that different from buying shares. Buying at cost would be ~600k-$1m?
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Dec 22, 2023 18:25
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| # ? Jun 3, 2024 18:32 |
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I don't see the volume on the option chain this is a lie.  There's only 55 open going into today and 9 traded today so at most 64. 6400 shares of NVDA is only worth 3million. Is it over several strikes and dates?
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Dec 22, 2023 19:07
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