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Bel Shazar
Sep 14, 2012

mobby_6kl posted:

Well they should fire her from that too. BTW several big-name politicians in Europe had been forced to resign because their academic work was found to have been plagiarized. Same logic applies imo, you wouldn't want someone dishonest to be in charge of the government either, even if it's not an academic position.

I wouldn't WANT it, but it's the only option the US government system produces.

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Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




ColdPie posted:

Absolutely insane.

Insulin used to be extremely cheap too. This is just bringing it back to where it was in the nineties. It’s been an obviously bullshit price for decades now.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

mobby_6kl posted:

Well they should fire her from that too. BTW several big-name politicians in Europe had been forced to resign because their academic work was found to have been plagiarized. Same logic applies imo, you wouldn't want someone dishonest to be in charge of the government either, even if it's not an academic position.

My expectations of the leadership of this country, and who would take their place if they were ousted, are so low that plagiarism does not even register to me as a concern.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

this thread maybe doesnt have room for 2 green xbox one avs

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

i think it's better than nothing, but the total expense ratios in california have been very disappointing for an institutional plan. currently there's an administrative fee of 30 bps which is pretty steep (my calpers 401k has much lower admin costs once you hit ~20k in assets), but up until june of last year the admin fees were a whopping 80 bps, which is just sheer highway robbery

Are these just the expense ratios of the underlying funds? I'm assuming they're using pretty standard target year funds which a lot of major brokers offer and usually have ratios in the 20-50 bps area.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

koolkal posted:

Are these just the expense ratios of the underlying funds? I'm assuming they're using pretty standard target year funds which a lot of major brokers offer and usually have ratios in the 20-50 bps area.

no, those admin fees are in addition to fund specific fees, which range from .04 for a global equity index fund to .09 for target date to .19 for esg. the fund fees themselves are competitive, but that admin fee is steep in my experience, though less so since last year's change

again, if someone were to opt-out of the calsaver program and enroll in a roth ira at vanguard, they could get a target date fund for .08 flat with no admin fee. the calsavers fund specifically counts towards an individual's roth ira contribution cap (and by extension their traditional ira cap), so any additional fees they have above vanguard or fidelity comes at the expense of less informed members of the public

it's of benefit if they would have never invested at all, but that's no excuse to keep costs to the investor to the necessary minimum

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

They have electronic tools for it now.

She didn't when she wrote her dissertation because it was, like you, decades ago.

OP's regdate is 2005, no need to be that harsh

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy
I’m honestly not sure if retirement accounts are appropriate for most low-wage workers.

Like, consider that the $12k a year mentioned above would have the purchasing power of $5500 today in 30 years, if we had similar inflation as the last 30. Meanwhile, you are forgoing almost $2000 a year in current income - and a lot of people would be a lot better putting that money into paying down any debt.

Plus, y’know, you can always die. Then your face would be pretty red.

Magic Underwear
May 14, 2003


Young Orc

mobby_6kl posted:

Well they should fire her from that too. BTW several big-name politicians in Europe had been forced to resign because their academic work was found to have been plagiarized. Same logic applies imo, you wouldn't want someone dishonest to be in charge of the government either, even if it's not an academic position.

Oh god, can you imagine a politician who lies holding high office? I hope that never happens.

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

Fork of Unknown Origins posted:

My expectations of the leadership of this country, and who would take their place if they were ousted, are so low that plagiarism does not even register to me as a concern.

Even with higher expectations, plagiarism doesn't concern me for politicians like it does for academics in the same way that the use of performance enhancing drugs by musicians concerns me less than it does for athletes. My expectations for each are different.

I don't really care if a stump speech or policy idea is original and unique, or worry about its quotes and attributions: I care if it is sincere and reflects what I can expect from the politician if they are put into power. And it's as easy to make original false promises as to lift them from someone else. I can't see myself turning down a politician who used phrasing they lifted from someone else, or who proposed a policy ignoring the "Original Tax Plan Do Not Steal" note, provided those are the results they're actually working to get.

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

Misunderstood posted:

I’m honestly not sure if retirement accounts are appropriate for most low-wage workers.

Like, consider that the $12k a year mentioned above would have the purchasing power of $5500 today in 30 years, if we had similar inflation as the last 30. Meanwhile, you are forgoing almost $2000 a year in current income - and a lot of people would be a lot better putting that money into paying down any debt.

Plus, y’know, you can always die. Then your face would be pretty red.

I've also got to assume the ulterior motive here is not to get low income workers retirement accounts that otherwise wouldn't have them, that's one of the results but the reason they are doing this is it's a nice chunk of change funneling into the stock market every year so number continues to go up. The rich benefit from this even more than the workers will.

theCalamity
Oct 23, 2010

Cry Havoc and let slip the Hogs of War
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/senior-education-official-cites-bidens-blind-eye-atrocities-gaza-reaso-rcna132107

Senior education official cites Biden's 'blind eye to the atrocities' in Gaza as reason for resignation

quote:

WASHINGTON — A senior Biden education official announced his resignation Wednesday, citing the administration’s failure to protect Palestinian civilians in Gaza from Israel’s offensive in its deadly war with Hamas.

In a letter Wednesday to Education Secretary Miguel Cardona, Tariq Habash, a policy advisor in the department's Office of Planning, Evaluation and Policy Development, wrote, “I cannot stay silent as this administration turns a blind eye to the atrocities committed against innocent Palestinian lives, in what leading human rights experts have called a genocidal campaign by the Israeli government.”

Habash, a Palestinian American, is a political appointee and a student loan and college affordability specialist.

His resignation is the latest sign of unease within the ranks of the Biden administration over the president's handling of a war that broke out Oct. 7 when Hamas militants launched a surprise attack on the Jewish state. In November, more than 400 Biden administration officials wrote an open letter calling on Biden to insist on a cease-fire. The letter did not give their names.

Israel’s counter-attack has resulted in more than 21,000 deaths in Gaza, according to Palestinian health authorities, prompting senior Biden administration officials to press Israel for a more targeted approach to the conflict that spares more civilian lives.

But critics argue that the White House is not using its leverage as Israel’s main military benefactor to bring about a change in tactics. They’ve prevailed on the White House to attach conditions to the military aid flowing to Israel rather than simply beseech Israeli leaders to show more restraint.

Habash’s two-page letter suggests that whatever Biden has done to rein in Israel has failed to prevent an unfolding humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.

“I cannot be quietly complicit as the administration fails to leverage its influence as Israel’s strongest ally to halt the abusive and collective punishment tactics that have cut off Palestinians in Gaza from food, water, electricity, fuel and medical supplies, leading to widespread disease and starvation,” he wrote.

He went on to suggest a callousness on Biden’s part in reacting to the death toll in Gaza. At a news conference in October, Biden dismissed casualty reports coming out of Gaza, saying he had no assurance that “the Palestinians are telling the truth about how many people are killed.”

“I’m sure innocents have been killed, and it’s the price of waging a war,” Biden added.

In his letter, Habash wrote that “the president has publicly questioned the integrity of Palestinian death counts frequently used by our own State Department, the United Nations, and numerous humanitarian non-governmental organizations.”

A spokesperson for the Education Department, in response to a request for comment on Habash, said, "We wish him the best in his future endeavors."

Mindful of growing dissent within the administration, White House officials have made efforts to meet with Arab American, Palestinian American, and Muslim American staff members to hear their concerns about the war. They’ve also convened quiet meetings with various Arab and Palestinian community leaders who are upset about the war’s direction.

But the blowback persists, straining Biden’s political coalition as he barrels toward a potential rematch with Donald Trump in November. Democratic lawmakers have warned Biden that he could lose Michigan, a crucial swing state with a large Arab population unless he recalibrates his approach to the war and shows more empathy for Palestinian lives.

Habash's path from enthusiastic campaign supporter to disillusioned official exemplifies the problem Biden faces.

He wrote that he “actively” campaigned for Biden in the 2020 election and helped shape the president’s platform on education issues. When Biden took office, Habash added that he was one of the first political appointees to arrive in the education building.

In a press statement two weeks after Biden’s swearing-in, the Education Department described Habash and other political appointees as a “diverse and accomplished” group.

What began on that hopeful note ended with Habash's letter criticizing the Biden administration for putting “millions of innocent lives in danger."

"Therefore, I must resign."

This is someone who campaigned for Biden in 2020 and actually shaped some policy on education. I hope more follow or, more importantly, Biden changes course

Zwabu
Aug 7, 2006

Misunderstood posted:

I’m honestly not sure if retirement accounts are appropriate for most low-wage workers.

Like, consider that the $12k a year mentioned above would have the purchasing power of $5500 today in 30 years, if we had similar inflation as the last 30. Meanwhile, you are forgoing almost $2000 a year in current income - and a lot of people would be a lot better putting that money into paying down any debt.

Are you assuming the money put into the retirement account does not appreciate in value at all?

Also the tax advantage of this type of savings has not been mentioned. Of course if you are low income with very low tax burden it may or may not be worth it.

Zwabu fucked around with this message at 01:20 on Jan 5, 2024

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Zwabu posted:

Are you assuming the money put into the retirement account does not appreciate in value at all?

Also the tax advantage of this type of savings has not been mentioned. Of course if you are low income with very low tax burden it may or may not be worth it.

It's also baby bond lite in a weird way but its a way to help low-income workers build wealth.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

EDIT: I quoted the wrong post when responding at first.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

They have electronic tools for it now.

She didn't when she wrote her dissertation because it was, like you, decades ago.

To think it was unintentional I would have to conclude either a very accomplished academic has a very poor grasp of academic honor codes or else she copy pasted something and accidentally forgot to note at the time it was from another source, came back to it, and thought it was her own thing then edited to reword slightly. I just don’t think it’s reasonable to conclude that happened over and over again.

The near-word for word long sentences look to be more than merely accidental. In fact, changing a few words slightly while keeping long strings the same are even more incriminating because they make it look like an intentional effort to steal as much of the original work as possible while doing as little work as possible without attribution.

Direct quote with citation is fine. Paraphrase of another source in your own words plus a proper citation is also fine. It’s not really that complicated for an author with an advanced degree. The Plagiarism Today guy lays it out in this video in a different context (reacting to hbomberguy):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-148vb8rzJ0

He has also written on Claudine Gay and basically seems his opinion is this is something that would likely lead to some corrective action against a typical faculty member (including suspension), but wouldn’t normally be treated too severely unless there’s more that we’re not yet aware of, and he says Harvard should have done a full review of all her scholarship when a problem first came to their attention. He also notes that a student pulling this who got caught would have a harsher penalty and that Harvard was first aware of the plagiarism allegation in October (before the hearings) and has sleepwalked into this.

yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 07:03 on Jan 5, 2024

Ms Adequate
Oct 30, 2011

Baby even when I'm dead and gone
You will always be my only one, my only one
When the night is calling
No matter who I become
You will always be my only one, my only one, my only one
When the night is calling



It's possible that both a Gay level of plagiarism is too much to credibly sustain her position in Harvard and for the right to be utterly disingenuous in their attacks on her.

aparmenideanmonad
Jan 28, 2004
Balls to you and your way of mortal opinions - you don't exist anyway!
Fun Shoe

ColdPie posted:

This is pretty bonkers. I'm T1D and last I checked some years ago, my insulin costs were like $1000 for a month supply, which my insurance would then lower to like a $100 copay. Quoting from the article:

Sanofi cut the list price of Lantus by 78%, to $96 for the prefilled pens and $64 for the 10-milliliter vial, starting Jan. 1. It also reduced the list price of its short-acting Apidra insulin by 70%.
Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk lowered the list prices of several of its insulin vials and prefilled pens by up to 75%, as of Jan. 1. The new list price for NovoLog is $72 per vial and $140 for the FlexPen.
And Eli Lilly slashed the list prices of Humalog, its most commonly prescribed insulin, and of Humulin by 70% by the end of 2023. Humalog will now carry a list price of $66 per vial.


If I mathed that out correctly, Lantus went from $436 to $96. Novolog from $288 to $72. Humalog from $220 to $66. (I use all three of these, depending on whatever way the insurance/supplier negotiation winds are blowing each year.)

You know they're not losing money at the new prices, so the 70-80% of the price that they cut out was just pure profit. You can see why they fought this so hard. Absolutely insane. The new prices are actually approaching affordable even for the uninsured.
The manufacturers were not alone in the upward pressure on prices. What will really be interesting is to see how the PBM formulary placement kickback schemes evolve now that the list price pie is fixed.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

this thread maybe doesnt have room for 2 green xbox one avs

theCalamity posted:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/senior-education-official-cites-bidens-blind-eye-atrocities-gaza-reaso-rcna132107

Senior education official cites Biden's 'blind eye to the atrocities' in Gaza as reason for resignation

This is someone who campaigned for Biden in 2020 and actually shaped some policy on education. I hope more follow or, more importantly, Biden changes course

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/03/biden-campaign-anonymous-letter-israel-hamas-00133705

There was actually another letter also sent recently from a bunch of campaign staffers urging him to shift and saying that it's affecting his campaign efforts, such as causing volunteers to quit.

I would not be surprised if his stance on this issue causes him to lose the election because his extreme stance is causing him to lose his biggest supporters, people who volunteer to campaign for him.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



koolkal posted:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/03/biden-campaign-anonymous-letter-israel-hamas-00133705

There was actually another letter also sent recently from a bunch of campaign staffers urging him to shift and saying that it's affecting his campaign efforts, such as causing volunteers to quit.

I would not be surprised if his stance on this issue causes him to lose the election because his extreme stance is causing him to lose his biggest supporters, people who volunteer to campaign for him.
He can’t afford to lose Michigan. This war is just going to continue to alienate his base there of Muslim Americans who generally vote for Democrats. But I don’t get the impression that the campaign or the WH is especially concerned about any of this when they are continuing to provide weapons to Israel so that they can kill more civilians.

Crows Turn Off
Jan 7, 2008


FlamingLiberal posted:

He can’t afford to lose Michigan. This war is just going to continue to alienate his base there of Muslim Americans who generally vote for Democrats. But I don’t get the impression that the campaign or the WH is especially concerned about any of this when they are continuing to provide weapons to Israel so that they can kill more civilians.
I agree with everything you're saying. But the implication is that they'd vote for Republicans instead... which would, to put it mildly, not be an improvement over this situation.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

FLIPADELPHIA
Apr 27, 2007

Heavy Shit
Grimey Drawer

Crows Turn Off posted:

I agree with everything you're saying. But the implication is that they'd vote for Republicans instead... which would, to put it mildly, not be an improvement over this situation.

This is a very dangerous way to look at voting in America. These voters are not being forced to choose between voting for Biden or Trump - they could easily stay home, which could cost Biden the election. There will be a lot of people who don't vote for Biden due to his active enabling of genocide in Palestine. Americans don't have to vote, and they don't certainly don't have to choose between these two men.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Edward Mass
Sep 14, 2011

𝅘𝅥𝅮 I wanna go home with the armadillo
Good country music from Amarillo and Abilene
Friendliest people and the prettiest women you've ever seen
𝅘𝅥𝅮
It's a dangerous way to look at voting in America because it's accurate. There is zero chance that the winner of the 2024 Presidential election is neither Democrat nor Republican. Unless you pull a Brewster's Millions and spend a fortune to get "None of the Above" receiving the most votes nationwide, the choice really is binary.

Crows Turn Off
Jan 7, 2008


FLIPADELPHIA posted:

This is a very dangerous way to look at voting in America. These voters are not being forced to choose between voting for Biden or Trump - they could easily stay home, which could cost Biden the election. There will be a lot of people who don't vote for Biden due to his active enabling of genocide in Palestine. Americans don't have to vote, and they don't certainly don't have to choose between these two men.
I don't think ever seen "not voting" have the effect you're getting at here. "Not voting" IS choosing one of them; in fact, in a state like Michigan, not voting is basically a vote for the Republican.

theCalamity
Oct 23, 2010

Cry Havoc and let slip the Hogs of War
Characterizing the decision of Palestinian and Arab Americans to not vote for Biden because their friends and families are being murdered by the country he vociferously supports as voting for Republicans is counterproductive. It shifts the focus onto them when it's really Biden's fault. The focus and blame should be on him and his actions, not the people who supported him and now feel betrayed. They've stated what he can do to get their vote back and he's choosing not to do it.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

this thread maybe doesnt have room for 2 green xbox one avs
Sounds like Joe Biden wants Trump to win the election.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Lemming
Apr 21, 2008
Why would Biden care about the issue unless he thought he was going to lose more votes by not supporting Palestinians? If those voters care about that issue, what is more impactful that they could do than convince Biden he'd have to change his behavior to win their votes? Why would they say "hey, we care a lot about this issue, but we'll vote for you no matter what you do"? That doesn't make any sense

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Ms Adequate posted:

It's possible that both a Gay level of plagiarism is too much to credibly sustain her position in Harvard and for the right to be utterly disingenuous in their attacks on her.

A gay level of plagiarism? I don't think we use gay like that in 2024

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Crows Turn Off posted:

I don't think ever seen "not voting" have the effect you're getting at here. "Not voting" IS choosing one of them; in fact, in a state like Michigan, not voting is basically a vote for the Republican.

Yes but they don’t see it that way. They just think “gently caress this” and don’t vote. You can explain the ramifications to them and it may sway some people, but not all.

And on top of that, if they feel let down even if they are going to vote for Biden there might be fewer canvassers and the like in Deerborn this time around. And the margins are close enough that that could matter.

Ms Adequate
Oct 30, 2011

Baby even when I'm dead and gone
You will always be my only one, my only one
When the night is calling
No matter who I become
You will always be my only one, my only one, my only one
When the night is calling



Professor Beetus posted:

A gay level of plagiarism? I don't think we use gay like that in 2024

The joyous news of the year is that we can indeed do so!

E; It's entirely possible that Biden's team have determined that opposing Israel costs him more votes than supporting it does. They may even be right. But it's also possible that Biden is taking a principled stand and drat what it costs him; he just has the principles of a zionist. Either way changing the administration's course on this doesn't seem like something anyone can convince him to do. I had hoped that the prisoner exchange pause showed that behind the scenes he really had been trying to get Israel to drink a big bottle of calm the gently caress down juice but it's pretty clear that was a forlorn hope.

Ms Adequate fucked around with this message at 08:22 on Jan 5, 2024

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.
For all of you who think Biden will lose more votes, and possibly the election, because of his current stance with Israel/Palestine: do you honestly think he would have more votes if he was constantly being painted as anti-Semitic by AIPAC? Especially if AIPAC pulled their money from Biden and shoveled it to Trump (or whoever the R nominee is)?

I think Biden should be more supportive of Palestine because it’s the right thing, of course. But I can’t imagine how much more of an electoral backlash there would be once AIPAC would decide he’s too “anti-Israel”, along with a large chunk of our population being extremely pro-Zionist.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Gnumonic
Dec 11, 2005

Maybe you thought I was the Packard Goose?

Kalit posted:

For all of you who think Biden will lose more votes, and possibly the election, because of his current stance with Israel/Palestine: do you honestly think he would have more votes if he was constantly being painted as anti-Semitic by AIPAC? Especially if AIPAC pulled their money from Biden and shoveled it to Trump (or whoever the R nominee is)?

I think Biden should be more supportive of Palestine because it’s the right thing, of course. But I can’t imagine how much more of an electoral backlash there would be once AIPAC would decide he’s too “anti-Israel”, along with a large chunk of our population being extremely pro-Zionist.

I'm not so sure that a large chunk of our population really is actively pro-Zionist. The pro-Israel position has been the default for both parties for twice as long as most of us have been alive. I suspect it's just a thoughtless default position for a lot of people who don't pay that much attention. Given the tribal nature of our politics and society, if Biden changed his position I imagine 99% of democrats would instantly support him & 99% of republicans would be even more vocally pro-genocide, or something.

Tbh, we've never seen a president do anything but tow the AIPAC line. Are they really that much of a *political* powerhouse? Can they really motivate a bunch of voters? Everything I know about them indicates that the main source of their influence is the relations they've built with other politicians. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems likely that politicians listen to AIPAC because they want the money (and are worried about it going to their opponent). Which probably matters in a house or senate race, but the total amount of money AIPAC can mobilize is probably a rounding error in the presidential contest.

It would also be super risky for AIPAC to declare war on a major party's candidate. How do you think most democrats would react if AIPAC helped push Trump over the line? It'd make support for Israel a 100% partisan issue, which is probably more dangerous to Israel over the long term than Biden giving them slightly fewer weapons or whatever.

socialsecurity
Aug 30, 2003

Gnumonic posted:

I'm not so sure that a large chunk of our population really is actively pro-Zionist. The pro-Israel position has been the default for both parties for twice as long as most of us have been alive. I suspect it's just a thoughtless default position for a lot of people who don't pay that much attention. Given the tribal nature of our politics and society, if Biden changed his position I imagine 99% of democrats would instantly support him & 99% of republicans would be even more vocally pro-genocide, or something.

Tbh, we've never seen a president do anything but tow the AIPAC line. Are they really that much of a *political* powerhouse? Can they really motivate a bunch of voters? Everything I know about them indicates that the main source of their influence is the relations they've built with other politicians. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems likely that politicians listen to AIPAC because they want the money (and are worried about it going to their opponent). Which probably matters in a house or senate race, but the total amount of money AIPAC can mobilize is probably a rounding error in the presidential contest.

It would also be super risky for AIPAC to declare war on a major party's candidate. How do you think most democrats would react if AIPAC helped push Trump over the line? It'd make support for Israel a 100% partisan issue, which is probably more dangerous to Israel over the long term than Biden giving them slightly fewer weapons or whatever.

A large chunk of the population doesn't know what the word Zionist means. Try talking to the average person about all this they mostly think Israel is sitting there doing nothing being picked on by the mean terrorists and they are just trying to survive. It takes a lot of convincing to even get them to look at the basic facts of the situation.

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

Gnumonic posted:

I'm not so sure that a large chunk of our population really is actively pro-Zionist. The pro-Israel position has been the default for both parties for twice as long as most of us have been alive. I suspect it's just a thoughtless default position for a lot of people who don't pay that much attention. Given the tribal nature of our politics and society, if Biden changed his position I imagine 99% of democrats would instantly support him & 99% of republicans would be even more vocally pro-genocide, or something.

Tbh, we've never seen a president do anything but tow the AIPAC line. Are they really that much of a *political* powerhouse? Can they really motivate a bunch of voters? Everything I know about them indicates that the main source of their influence is the relations they've built with other politicians. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems likely that politicians listen to AIPAC because they want the money (and are worried about it going to their opponent). Which probably matters in a house or senate race, but the total amount of money AIPAC can mobilize is probably a rounding error in the presidential contest.

It would also be super risky for AIPAC to declare war on a major party's candidate. How do you think most democrats would react if AIPAC helped push Trump over the line? It'd make support for Israel a 100% partisan issue, which is probably more dangerous to Israel over the long term than Biden giving them slightly fewer weapons or whatever.

Trying to claim that ~99% of Democrats will be supportive of Biden no matter his Israel stance is impossible to know. If that’s the case and are insinuating it wouldn’t impact the election, then you can claim it in the opposite. Also, there’s a tiny chunk of non-Democrats that voted for him/against Trump too, so it’s not just Democrats. Which is definitely important in the swing states

As far as for my pro-Zionist statement, I made it based on historical polling. Hell, even if we look at a current poll, 60% of the respondents say our involvement is the right amount or too much. There’s lots more polling to support my pro-Zionist claim, I can link some if you want, but I figure it’s well known and not a controversial claim.

As far as AIPAC, why would they care about what politicians think of them? They’re the ones buying influence with lots of money. They’re the ones who want to promote pro-Zionism within the US populace. They’ll just keep throwing up more and more extreme ads and enough of the US populace will gobble it up, giving more support to politicians who remain pro-Zionist.

E: And if you’re talking about AIPAC’s image strictly among Democratic voters, I’d be shocked if even a quarter of them know who AIPAC is and what their mission is. They would just hear things such as Biden not wanting the Jewish population to be able to defend their homeland and increasing in rhetoric from there

Kalit fucked around with this message at 13:49 on Jan 5, 2024

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

Ms Adequate posted:

E; It's entirely possible that Biden's team have determined that opposing Israel costs him more votes than supporting it does.
It's pretty much 100% indisputable that opposing Israel would cost him more votes than supporting it does. Does nobody here know anybody over 50? The votes are the entire reason he's doing this; he doesn't give a poo poo about Hamas. His goal with Israel was to broken closer relations with the Arab world to lead towards a two state solution, which would be a foreign policy crown jewel in his legacy. This war has hosed his poo poo all up, and anybody who thinks he likes what's happening isn't grasping the situation.

Kalit posted:

I think Biden should be more supportive of Palestine because it’s the right thing, of course. But I can’t imagine how much more of an electoral backlash there would be once AIPAC would decide he’s too “anti-Israel”, along with a large chunk of our population being extremely pro-Zionist.
There are also a segment of currently-Democratic voting Jews who would be lost forever. (Although to be fair they are mostly old, so it would only be like, 4-6 election cycles!)

There is a huge deck stacked against Biden taking the right position. There are 1 - more Jews than Arabs and 2 - a higher percentage of them are citizens and 3 - they vote at a higher rate and 4 - they have a gigantic lobbying arm that will gently caress up your poo poo. poo poo sucks. Ultimately it's public opinion that matters, but the public would need to understand what is happening much, much better to be able to withstand the propaganda shitstorm that would bring down on the entire party.

Gnumonic posted:

I'm not so sure that a large chunk of our population really is actively pro-Zionist.
It's not - but there is not a "large chunk" of the population that values Palestinian rights and independence, either. Like socialsecurity says, this is an 80/20 issue where the 80 is "huh? Oh yeah, that's still going on?"

Kalit posted:

cians who remain pro-Zionist.
E: And if you’re talking about AIPAC’s image strictly among Democratic voters, I’d be shocked if even a quarter of them know who AIPAC is and what their mission is. They would just hear things such as Biden not wanting the Jewish population to be able to defend their homeland and increasing in rhetoric from there
It would also really, really not do the Democrats any favors to have to point out the shadowy group of Jews spending ~dark money~ to undermine democracy and buy favor. That is the kind of poo poo the Republican base doesn't blink at but there are Dem voters (even non-Jews, or people without strong opinions on Israel) who would be really turned off by that. I mean, spinning any legitimate criticism of them as, "actually, this is dangerous hate speech" is Israel's whole thing.

e: We need a second Jewish state that's cool, so we can have good relations with them to prove we're down with Jews, and then really crack down on those fuckers in Israel. Kind of a "Goofus and Gallant" model of Jewish statehood.

Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 15:11 on Jan 5, 2024

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Gnumonic posted:

I'm not so sure that a large chunk of our population really is actively pro-Zionist. The pro-Israel position has been the default for both parties for twice as long as most of us have been alive. I suspect it's just a thoughtless default position for a lot of people who don't pay that much attention. Given the tribal nature of our politics and society, if Biden changed his position I imagine 99% of democrats would instantly support him & 99% of republicans would be even more vocally pro-genocide, or something.

Tbh, we've never seen a president do anything but tow the AIPAC line. Are they really that much of a *political* powerhouse? Can they really motivate a bunch of voters? Everything I know about them indicates that the main source of their influence is the relations they've built with other politicians. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems likely that politicians listen to AIPAC because they want the money (and are worried about it going to their opponent). Which probably matters in a house or senate race, but the total amount of money AIPAC can mobilize is probably a rounding error in the presidential contest.

It would also be super risky for AIPAC to declare war on a major party's candidate. How do you think most democrats would react if AIPAC helped push Trump over the line? It'd make support for Israel a 100% partisan issue, which is probably more dangerous to Israel over the long term than Biden giving them slightly fewer weapons or whatever.

AIPAC can absolutely motivate voters. For starters, there's more than twice as many Jewish-Americans as there are Arab-Americans, and many more of them are in positions of political or media influence. Of course, not all Jewish-Americans support Israel, but not all Arab-Americans support Palestine either. I have no idea how to count the Christian sects that believe in supporting Israel for religious reasons, but I wouldn't be shocked if they outnumber Arab-Americans too.

What about the general American populace with no particular ethnic or religious connection to the conflict? Well, Americans generally have some cultural favorability toward the Jewish people, a widespread disapproval of anti-Semitism, and some cultural memory of the Holocaust. Additionally, for cultural, institutional, and historical reasons, the American people generally tend to be hostile to insurgents engaging in asymmetrical guerilla warfare against civilian populations, and they generally tend to sympathize with imperial powers using organized professional militaries to assault the insurgency with overwhelming force while a bunch of lawyers spend all day going on Western news outlets and assuring everyone that all civilian casualties are merely unfortunate collateral damage that are probably the insurgents' fault for using human shields.

That's especially true when the insurgents are Muslim Arabs and the imperial power is Western-influenced, Western-aligned, and has plenty of white civilians to parade in front of the cameras to cry about their plight at the hands of insurgents. (Israel isn't quite majority-white, but I'll bet a lot of Americans don't actually realize that).

Whether the American populace is "pro-Zionist" is tough to answer because Zionism is more of a spectrum. I'd guess that the American populace supports an Israeli "right to exist" in its current form as an explicitly Jewish-dominated country on formerly-Palestinian territory, but that they aren't particularly interested in further Israeli territorial expansion into the remaining Palestinian territories. But the question isn't really whether they're Zionist or not.

The question is who they're going to support in this conflict. One side is Muslim Arab terrorists who killed a bunch of defenseless white people, and the other side is a Western-influenced country whose Western-influenced military is using both military and media tactics taken straight from the War on Terror playbook. American sympathies are naturally going to lean toward the latter.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Israel has proven that the existence of any kind of ethnostate is inevitably going to lead to repression of some kind. It’s inherently making an unequal situation that will eventually boil over.

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009

socialsecurity posted:

A large chunk of the population doesn't know what the word Zionist means. Try talking to the average person about all this they mostly think Israel is sitting there doing nothing being picked on by the mean terrorists and they are just trying to survive. It takes a lot of convincing to even get them to look at the basic facts of the situation.

Finally someone gets it. The terminally online folks you see in forums pontificating about geopolitics couldn't be any more removed from the general populations view on it. Like you said I'm sure most people don't even know what Zionism means. So I think the calculation the Biden administration made (if they made it) that they would lose way more votes if they refused to support Israels war (ethnic cleansing campaign) is correct.

Rogue AI Goddess
May 10, 2012

I enjoy the sight of humans on their knees.
That was a joke... unless..?
For one possible scenario of how things could have gone for alternative universe Biden who chose to support Palestine over Israel, consider Jeremy Corbyn.

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

Charliegrs posted:

Finally someone gets it. The terminally online folks you see in forums pontificating about geopolitics couldn't be any more removed from the general populations view on it.
Ayup.

here's an NYT op ed about it from the eve of the 2020 election. (I'm now having a stoner moment where I'm not sure if the reason I thought of this article is because somebody linked it in this thread recently - if so, oops! Shoulda listened to the DARE officer.)

Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan in NYT posted:

The Real Divide in America Is Between Political Junkies and Everyone Else
Most Americans view politics as two camps bickering endlessly and fruitlessly over unimportant issues.


The common view of American politics today is of a clamorous divide between Democrats and Republicans, an unyielding, inevitable clash of harsh partisan polarization.

But that focus obscures another, enormous gulf — the gap between those who follow politics closely and those who don’t. Call it the “attention divide.”

What we found is that most Americans — upwards of 80 percent to 85 percent — follow politics casually or not at all. Just 15 percent to 20 percent follow it closely (the people we call “deeply involved”): the group of people who monitor everything from covfefe to the politics of “Cuties.”

But on a number of other issues, we found that Americans fall much less neatly into partisan camps. For example, Democrats and Republicans who don’t follow politics closely believe that low hourly wages are one of the most important problems facing the country. But for hard partisans, the issue barely registers.

Partisan Republicans were most likely to say drug abuse was the most important problem facing the country. But less-attentive Republicans ranked it second to last, and they were also concerned about the deficit and divisions between Democrats and Republicans.

Among Democrats, the political junkies think the influence of wealthy donors and interest groups is an urgent problems. But less-attentive Democrats are 25 percentage points more likely to name moral decline as an important problem facing the country — a problem partisan Democrats never even mention.

These gaps extend beyond issues to feelings about the other party. Hard partisans are twice as likely as people who pay less attention to politics to say that they would be unhappy if their child married someone of the opposing party.

Hard partisans are also more likely to speak out about these political likes and dislikes. Almost 45 percent of people who are deeply involved say they frequently share their views on social media — in some cases, daily. It’s only 11 percent for those without a politics habit. To put this in perspective, a Pew study finds that 10 percent of Twitter users are responsible for 97 percent of all tweets about politics.

This gap between the politically indifferent and hard, loud partisans exacerbates the perception of a hopeless division in American politics because it is the partisans who define what it means to engage in politics. When a Democrat imagines a Republican, she is not imagining a co-worker who mostly posts cat pictures and happens to vote differently; she is more likely imagining a co-worker she had to mute on Facebook because the Trump posts became too hard to bear.

We see this effect in a study we did with three other political scientists, James Druckman, Samara Klar and Matthew Levendusky. We asked a group of over 3,000 Americans to describe either themselves or members of the other party. Only 27 percent of these people said that they discuss politics frequently; a majority consider themselves moderates. But nearly 70 percent of these people believe that a typical member of the other party talks about politics incessantly and is definitely not moderate.

For partisans, politics is a morality play, a struggle of good versus evil. But most Americans just see two angry groups of people bickering over issues that may not always seem pressing or important.

How can politics better match the opinions of a majority of Americans? The fact is, it’s not an easy problem to solve. We can try to give the hardened partisans less voice in the news. Featuring people who exemplify partisan conflict and extremist ideas elevates their presence in politics (though of course by definition, it is the partisans who are most closely watching the news who are also most likely to give their opinions). This is particularly true of social media: What a vocal minority shares on social media is not the opinion of the public. Yet such political tweets, as the political communication scholar Shannon McGregor finds, are increasingly making their way into news coverage as stand-ins for public opinion.

There might be an advantage for politicians who focus less on the demands of partisans and more on tangible issues. Yes, hard partisans are more likely to reward ideological victories, but they are also a minority of the electorate.

Each day, partisan Democrats wonder whether that day’s “outrage” will finally change how people feel about President Trump. Partisan Republicans wonder the same thing about Joe Biden. But most “regular” voters are not paying that much attention to the daily onslaught. It turns them off.

And the major scandals that do break through? Well, to many of them, that is “just politics.”

It seems like the Israel war did briefly transcend this because it became so huge on social media, but that effect is fading fast.

theCalamity
Oct 23, 2010

Cry Havoc and let slip the Hogs of War
If Biden is in a situation where he would lose votes and the election no matter which side he chooses, then he should choose the side that results in not supporting a genocide

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Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis had CNN townhalls last night.

They were both mostly uninteresting, but someone again asked Haley about the civil war and she managed to step on a rake again.

She said "it's not a leader's place" to decide which side in the civil war was right or wrong because it is too divisive to talk about. She also said that she can't be racist because she had black friends growing up.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1743113111576404103

Someone also asked her what we should do about school shootings and she replied that we need to focus on mental health and secure our schools the same way we secure our airports and courthouses. Then, someone mentioned that they ban guns at courthouses and airports and she just said, "Not like that."

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