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fatherboxx)
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I don't have a ton of faith in North Korean engineering, but most of their failed test launches seem to at least go up in the air a ways before exploding, so I doubt we'll be so lucky as to have Russian launch crews collecting instant karma for launching terror bombing strikes.
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Jan 8, 2024 19:58
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Xiahou Dun posted:Single-digit billions is actually not much money at all for a country. I wasn't sure how much they actually need vs what they exploit from crypto. I guessed wrong, I suppose.
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Jan 8, 2024 20:00
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Akratic Method posted:I don't have a ton of faith in North Korean engineering, but most of their failed test launches seem to at least go up in the air a ways before exploding, so I doubt we'll be so lucky as to have Russian launch crews collecting instant karma for launching terror bombing strikes. Unless the North Koreans are sending over cutting edge stuff, I suspect we're not going to see big defect rates and meme material. If the Russians are doing the shopping, they're probably picking and choosing the best bets out of what's on offer. Plus, it's not like the Russians don't have their own expertise for making modifications or repairs if necessary. Not having to make stuff from scratch is already a boost that they would not be getting in an ideal world.
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Jan 8, 2024 20:01
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notwithoutmyanus posted:I wasn't sure how much they actually need vs what they exploit from crypto. I guessed wrong, I suppose. Sorry, I didn't mean for that to sound maximally condescending. I was trying to think of a good analogy for how that seems like it should be a lot of money, but it's very much not at that scale and the difference between adults and children was the first that popped into my head. You are infinitely less annoying than my nephew.
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Jan 8, 2024 20:04
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^^ No I mean I didn't have a solid basis for how much they need. I didn't take offense, no harm there. I assumed NK is fairly poor but not sure what exactly constitutes their financial needs in relation. If it is as you said where they need probably a 200B>1T a year, I can see how the crypto exploits wouldn't add up to much. Anyway, moving on. Thread has been somewhat quiet lately, is it due to winter weather in Russia/Ukraine?
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Jan 8, 2024 20:11
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Akratic Method posted:I don't have a ton of faith in North Korean engineering, but most of their failed test launches seem to at least go up in the air a ways before exploding, so I doubt we'll be so lucky as to have Russian launch crews collecting instant karma for launching terror bombing strikes. I remember leaks a while back about the CIA actively loving with the NK rocket supply chain, and potentially being involved in a number of failed test launches. This sound familiar to anyone else?
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Jan 8, 2024 20:31
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notwithoutmyanus posted:Thread has been somewhat quiet lately, is it due to winter weather in Russia/Ukraine? I think an easier explanation is that all the big western countries have apparently decided that the war is in a stalemate and also that Ukraine doesn't really need any more help (in the form of artillery ammo etc). Both of these assumptions would be wrong, which is depressing. In this thread, some guy (who is an economics professor and thus might be a relatively decent source) talks about the debate in Ukraine about further mobilisation: https://twitter.com/mylovanov/status/1743591462162288716 Apparently Zelenskyy has said that according to the army Ukraine will need 400-500k more soldiers in the army. This is a lot. Now the Ukrainians are talking about how to decide who gets drafted and so on. One issue is that the Ukrainian economy is obviously rather devastated (and also western aid might not be as reliable any longer). The war isn't over by any means but right now it seems a bit uncertain how it will go.
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Jan 8, 2024 20:36
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Blue Footed Booby posted:I remember leaks a while back about the CIA actively loving with the NK rocket supply chain, and potentially being involved in a number of failed test launches. This sound familiar to anyone else? The constant launch failures mostly took place back when they were playing Kerbal space program: scud harder, or the followup models around the 1960's SLBM clone Russian assistance helped them build. After someone handed over the RD-250 boosters thing got a lot less explodey. They probably aren't shipping over ICBMs, though, and the scud based medium and short range missiles work fine-ish probably. Though that may depend on if/how they were maintained. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 23:48 on Jan 8, 2024 |
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Jan 8, 2024 23:33
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jaete posted:I think an easier explanation is that all the big western countries have apparently decided that the war is in a stalemate and also that Ukraine doesn't really need any more help (in the form of artillery ammo etc). Both of these assumptions would be wrong, which is depressing. This was very interesting. I remember a VICE report from a year ago where the reporter followed a wounded veteran back to Kyiv where the two watched a stand up comedy show. Afterwards the veteran said he couldn’t stand that people in Kiev were so disconnected from the brutality of the front, and that the whole society should be focused on the war. I can’t imagine what it would feel like to be called up to fight. A lot of mixed emotions.
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Jan 8, 2024 23:49
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North Korea can make decent ballistic missiles. And they do a mix of test and saber rattling launches on the regular. And they can make them domestically. It’s uninformed to assume they are bad at missiles for just… unsupported reasons.
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Jan 9, 2024 02:10
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Looks like the KN-23 and KN-25 may have shown up so far. Those are both pretty recent SRBMs from the mid 2010's and both use reasonably reliable solid boosters. They'll probably work fine, doing more or less what the Iskander does. Decent chance they were developed with Russian assistance in the first place. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 02:32 on Jan 9, 2024 |
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Jan 9, 2024 02:22
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Some KN-23 nerd stuff for those who care https://nonproliferation.org/preliminary-analysis-kn-23-srbm/
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Jan 9, 2024 02:42
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mlmp08 posted:Some KN-23 nerd stuff for those who care https://nonproliferation.org/preliminary-analysis-kn-23-srbm/ KN-25 is more interesting, IMO. The KN-23 is basically the Iskander body stretched a bit to fit the second stage booster from one of their newer SLBMs, plus some small modifications like the indigenous control adaptations they mention. The KN-25 has a pretty unique rotating fin design where the control surfaces rotate rather than the entire missile to maintain stability and it may be using a super long Tochka-derived booster. That's reasonably creative and implies they were more comfortable adapting the design.
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Jan 9, 2024 03:05
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Warbadger posted:KN-25 is more interesting, IMO. The KN-23 is basically the Iskander body stretched a bit to fit the second stage booster from one of their newer SLBMs, plus some small modifications like the indigenous control adaptations they mention. KN-23 looks superficially similar to an Iskander at a glance, but is sized and designed differently.
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Jan 9, 2024 03:16
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mlmp08 posted:KN-23 looks superficially similar to an Iskander at a glance, but is sized and designed differently. It even flies a very Iskander-ish flattened trajectory, with the same range as the Iskander and a payload similar in size to the Iskander. It's basically the Iskander, re-sized somewhat to fit an available booster and domestic payload (see: nuclear), with domestic systems substituted as needed.
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Jan 9, 2024 03:33
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Aren't most of Irans ballistic missile based on NK designs? I remember watching videos of the missiles Iran launched at the US base in Iraq in 2020 and they looked to be incredibly accurate because they were hitting individual buildings as opposed to just landing in random places.
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Jan 9, 2024 06:28
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Charliegrs posted:Aren't most of Irans ballistic missile based on NK designs? I remember watching videos of the missiles Iran launched at the US base in Iraq in 2020 and they looked to be incredibly accurate because they were hitting individual buildings as opposed to just landing in random places. So apparently they acquired a lot of their arsenal from other places included North Korea. So not just designs but the actual missiles themselves it seems: "The United States Institute of Peace -Iran primer posted:Iran has the largest and most diverse ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. (Israel has more capable ballistic missiles, but fewer in number and type.) Most were acquired from foreign sources, notably North Korea. The Islamic Republic is the only country to develop a 2,000-km missile without first having a nuclear weapons capability. I would of thought Iran had a better tech manufacturing bases that NK, but also says Iran has issues getting key missiles components so that could play a part.
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Jan 9, 2024 06:40
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There's also a lot of missiles that look similar, which can fool a layman into thinking "oh this is a copy/export from another country" when that isn't the case. Three different missiles from three different countries (North Korea, South Korea, Russia):  The difference is a little bit more pronounced, but you could do a similar side by side of a US ATACMS, South Korean tactical missile, and North Korean tactical missile, and they all look similar at a glance. Or this famous case of a guy (whose main feature is being wrong about stuff nowadays) being convinced that North Korea copied or had exported to them a Russian missile, when that is not the case at all: https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1218663/errors-in-postols-analysis-of-the-hwasong-18/ North Korea has some designs that have rather little to do with Iranian designs and vice versa, even though the two countries have conducted weapons and tech sharing before. There has long been a group of pundits and analysts who are convinced that North Korean indigenous weapons development is actually evidence that they can't design their own weapons and are getting them from [pick your bogeyman of choice]. But at this point, North Korea has proven itself to be a capable missile tech developer and manufacturer.
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Jan 9, 2024 07:11
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notwithoutmyanus posted:Thread has been somewhat quiet lately, is it due to winter weather in Russia/Ukraine? Battlefield movement and territorial gains, the only thing that OSINT can accurately measure, is essentially at a standstill and no new publications from the major think-tanks are available for public consumption. So there is nothing much to discuss unless you are into reading tea leaves about how long Russia or Ukraine can keep this up for the nth time.
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Jan 9, 2024 07:33
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Both sides are trying to maintain the initiative, and there is plenty of movement on the frontlines but only in 10s or 100s of meters at a time for either side. Russia has been slowly grinding forward around Bakhmut and Avdiivka, but the Ukrainians have not made it pleasant for them. There seems to be a steady stream of videos on reddit of Russian mechanized/armored columns (usually company strength) and infantry on the receiving end of FPV drones and mines from those areas. It has been a mild winter so far, so things have been wet, cold, and muddy. However, this and the next few weeks temperatures are expected to drop considerably. So we will see if Russia goes for one of their annual winter offensives.
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Jan 9, 2024 07:53
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mlmp08 posted:There's also a lot of missiles that look similar, which can fool a layman into thinking "oh this is a copy/export from another country" when that isn't the case. Indeed: Physics is a harsh master.
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Jan 9, 2024 14:07
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Ynglaur posted:Indeed: Physics is a harsh master. It's always funny when some people come in with ideas to totally change everything in some design, then end up with pretty much the old design after discovering all the reasons why things are the way they are. And I mean it's and education experience, and hey sometimes a fresh set of eyes on a problem can come up with new and better ways to design around problems.
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Jan 9, 2024 14:20
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dr_rat posted:It's always funny when some people come in with ideas to totally change everything in some design, then end up with pretty much the old design after discovering all the reasons why things are the way they are. It's why I tell people that design documentation in software should describe "why" more than "what".
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Jan 9, 2024 14:34
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I inherited a house of cards that is full of things that were done for hysterical reasons existing side by side with things that are unusual but useful. Nowhere is intent documented, so I get to rediscover all the pitfalls again as I go. It is the most infuriating thing only made worse by finding comments that explain what was done, but never mention why. Like they were written specifically to only state the obvious and withhold context. It's crazy how important institutional knowledge is and how absolutely broken an organisation becomes when that knowledge vanishes, even if it only exists as comments in a file somewhere.
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Jan 9, 2024 15:27
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Antigravitas posted:I inherited a house of cards that is full of things that were done for hysterical reasons existing side by side with things that are unusual but useful. Nowhere is intent documented, so I get to rediscover all the pitfalls again as I go. It is the most infuriating thing only made worse by finding comments that explain what was done, but never mention why. Like they were written specifically to only state the obvious and withhold context. We are somewhat blessed in software since version control exists and sometimes even includes the relevant information. Of course, there is also everything else about the field....
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Jan 9, 2024 15:37
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Commit: 8fdb2af1a3b61a0deb3ee49da757975967269b58 Author: somedude@whatever.com Description: fixed
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Jan 9, 2024 18:28
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Volmarias posted:Commit: 8fdb2af1a3b61a0deb3ee49da757975967269b58 (the version is still broken)
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Jan 9, 2024 18:35
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Volmarias posted:Commit: 8fdb2af1a3b61a0deb3ee49da757975967269b58 Commit: 8fdb2af1a3b61a0deb3ee49da757975967269b59 Author: somedude@whatever.com Description: fix CI tests Commit: 8fdb2af1a3b61a0deb3ee49da757975967269b5a Author: somedude@whatever.com Description: fixed for real Commit: 8fdb2af1a3b61a0deb3ee49da757975967269b5b Author: somedude@whatever.com Description: revert
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Jan 9, 2024 18:36
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Commit: db6f806ecf256e05df77e2f8aebdd637d83999a8 Author: somedude@whatever.com Description: initial commit Commit: f383a53f8ab378d28933f012745784b9fa7d7264 Author: somedude@whatever.com Description: real initial commit
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Jan 9, 2024 18:39
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Antigravitas posted:I inherited a house of cards that is full of things that were done for hysterical reasons existing side by side with things that are unusual but useful. Nowhere is intent documented, so I get to rediscover all the pitfalls again as I go. It is the most infuriating thing only made worse by finding comments that explain what was done, but never mention why. Like they were written specifically to only state the obvious and withhold context. Ironically, the law has the opposite problem. We should probably track laws using Git at this point, but most legislative bodies are pretty good at providing intent in commentary with bills. They're not perfect, but its surprising sometimes to read direct and plain language in comments about a bill.
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Jan 9, 2024 18:41
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Git sucks for text though. Ever tried writing a paper in LaTeX using git? It's awful.
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Jan 9, 2024 18:49
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Ynglaur posted:Ironically, the law has the opposite problem. We should probably track laws using Git at this point, but most legislative bodies are pretty good at providing intent in commentary with bills. They're not perfect, but its surprising sometimes to read direct and plain language in comments about a bill. Honestly I would love it if this is how legislators could actually introduce legislation, especially if you could easily see specifically what sections were stricken or added. The problem is that, sometimes, they're intended to allow loop holes or similar. Imagine having the Obfuscated C Contest, but with lawyers, and also case law that's relevant but not specified in the change.
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Jan 9, 2024 18:51
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spankmeister posted:Git sucks for text though. Ever tried writing a paper in LaTeX using git? It's awful. It's funny you say this, because text is all git is really meant for. It was just designed by the most programmer to ever program. It's a deeply unpleasant piece of software that the most humorless grognards treat as above criticism.
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Jan 9, 2024 20:07
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I've used git for several text projects (books, reports) and never really had an issue with it. What's the supposed problem? It's not what I'd call my ideal tool for those things, but its better than several of the alternatives I've had to use.
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Jan 9, 2024 20:13
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I'm now genuinely curious about why git is uniquely bad for text documents in ways other version control isn't at the risk of continuing this massive derail. I would imagine most of the bad is just nonsensical diffs? Reading the new CIT report and saw some interesting tidbits I didn't see mentioned before: https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-5-8-2024 Seems like Ukrainian grain is still an issue for Polish farmers who are claiming that the market is being flooded - so they get some subsidies and protections: https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-deal-farmers-blockade-ukraine-border/ Meanwhile Romania is planning to build a new road to allow access to Romanian ports bypassing Poland entirely: https://bnnbreaking.com/world/ukraine/emergency-road-construction-ukraines-new-lifeline-to-romanian-ports/ Looking back, one part of the grain deal was a possible bypass into Romania but it seems that the ports at Odessa are operating just fine? https://nitter.net/OlKubrakov/status/1744284002213654912#m 15 million tons since August was pretty close to the desired 3 million tons per month even when the grain deal was going on.
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Jan 9, 2024 20:29
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Volmarias posted:Honestly I would love it if this is how legislators could actually introduce legislation, especially if you could easily see specifically what sections were stricken or added. code:
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Jan 9, 2024 20:33
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Blue Footed Booby posted:It's funny you say this, because text is all git is really meant for. It was just designed by the most programmer to ever program. It's a deeply unpleasant piece of software that the most humorless grognards treat as above criticism. Oh, like Emacs.
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Jan 9, 2024 20:37
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Rust Martialis posted:Oh, like Emacs. Great OS, if only there was a text editor.
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Jan 9, 2024 20:44
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WarpedLichen posted:I'm now genuinely curious about why git is uniquely bad for text documents in ways other version control isn't at the risk of continuing this massive derail. I would imagine most of the bad is just nonsensical diffs? larger diffs can be a bit annoying to read but other than that it's generally fine. my work and a ton of other tech shops use it to manage docs written in markdown
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Jan 9, 2024 20:51
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karthun posted:Great OS, if only there was a text editor. What? There are several. At least vim-mode, vimpulse and their successor, Evil.
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Jan 9, 2024 20:51
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