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Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

Pictured: Poster prepares to celebrate Holy Communion (probablY)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
Your parents are, presumably, not important members of the US state apparatus. It's sad but understandable that people who are not connected to this ongoing genocide would think "oh its such a shame but these things happen" vs a person with more information and a direct state of interest in it.

Also I was reading in the ICJ filing that more journalists have been killed thus far in the conflict than in the entirety of WW2. Considering the scale of this I think that any claims about not targeting journalists should be treated with suspicion.

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not a value-add
Jan 17, 2019

Yeah that’s exactly my point. It’s boomer logic but any professional diplomat or intelligence guy should be more informed and self aware. I’m not a mind reader either but ineffectual statements along with making public appearances in a plate carrier etc. comes across as out of touch.


e: you don’t have to apologize! I’m sorry my post wasn’t more clear.

not a value-add fucked around with this message at 15:35 on Jan 8, 2024

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

Pictured: Poster prepares to celebrate Holy Communion (probablY)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

not a value-add posted:

Yeah that’s exactly my point. It’s boomer logic but any professional diplomat or intelligence guy should be more informed and self aware. I’m not a mind reader either but ineffectual statements along with making public appearances in a plate carrier etc. comes across as out of touch.

Oh I am sorry for misunderstanding!

Thanks for letting me know!

Hong XiuQuan
Feb 19, 2008

"Without justice for the Palestinians there will be no peace in the Middle East."

Main Paineframe posted:

It's easy for American officials to write off a few dozen dead journalists as the inevitable chaos of war, especially when they consider that several hundred journalists were killed in the Iraq War, a good chunk of whom were killed by coalition forces. This includes airstrikes on Al-Jazeera's Baghdad office, firing a tank shell into the hotel where most of the foreign journalists were staying, as well as a number of other incidents (for example, the infamous Collateral Murder video showed American helicopter pilots gunning down a group of Iraqi reporters whose camera had been mistaken for a rocket launcher). And it's not widely believed that all of that was on purpose as part of a deliberate campaign to target and assassinate journalists.

About 300 journalists have been killed in Iraq over the last 20 years. The bulk of them have been killed by various armed groups (including US proxies like the Iraqi govt). While there were definitely dodgy incidents there hasn't been a single period in Iraq where the US killed anything like the number of journalists that Israel has.

It should also be noted that the journalists murdered by Israel also are routinely murdered with their families.

Blinken's not an idiot. Even with ideological blinders on, he can see that dozens of journalists being killed with their families over a period of three months is either a deliberate pattern or the IDF is so woefully incompetent that it shouldn't be operating at all.

Kavros
May 18, 2011

sleep sleep sleep
fly fly post post
sleep sleep sleep

Hong XiuQuan posted:

Blinken's not an idiot. Even with ideological blinders on, he can see that dozens of journalists being killed with their families over a period of three months is either a deliberate pattern or the IDF is so woefully incompetent that it shouldn't be operating at all.

After some observation, I think israel under likud has managed some inelegant combination of both in the IDF. Murderous both by intent and by competence decay, so there's no off switch.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler
The claim that in all of World War 2 a total of 69 journalists were killed seems based on a very narrow definition of what a journalist is.
Germany regularly executed the entire staff of underground newspaper that were discovered or sent them to a death camp, hundreds in each occupied country. Do the couriers count? The typesetter and the one refilling paper into the printing press?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underground_media_in_German-occupied_Europe

Fidelitious
Apr 17, 2018

MY BIRTH CRY WILL BE THE SOUND OF EVERY WALLET ON THIS PLANET OPENING IN UNISON.
Well as long as they're using the same definition for both counts I don't think it really matters. The same relatively low count seems to be presented for Vietnam also.
Or you can compare to the still-ongoing Russia-Ukraine war (17).

However you count and compare the end result seems to be a much higher rate of media deaths than anything else I've found referenced.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Josef bugman posted:

Also I was reading in the ICJ filing that more journalists have been killed thus far in the conflict than in the entirety of WW2. Considering the scale of this I think that any claims about not targeting journalists should be treated with suspicion.

It's not nearly as suspicious as you'd think. Compared to later wars, WWII battlefields were relatively safe for journalists. In the first place, they typically weren't permitted near the front lines in WWII, and WWII's nature as a wholly conventional war meant that there were nice clearly defined frontlines that they could mostly be kept away from, and not really a whole ton of urban combat in populated civilian areas. And most of the civilian deaths in WWII came off the battlefield, after the occupation forces had secured complete control of the area.

Later wars of a more anti-insurgency nature, such as Vietnam and Iraq, tend to be much more deadly for journalists. Modern media and communication technology made reporters much more eager to be close to the action where they could get exciting TV footage. On the Western side, the military was far more willing to allow journalists to get close to combat operations, in hopes that a happy media would help maintain public support for the war. On the defending side, the insurgency is mixed into civilian areas and often doesn't have the ability to prevent journalists from watching them fight. And on both sides, there's heavy use of largely-indiscriminate firepower that makes it rather difficult for either side to selectively not kill people. Plus the journalists themselves don't have any clear idea of what's safe, since there's no clearly defined frontline and either side can potentially strike just about anywhere with zero notice. It makes for a much more dangerous environment for journalists than old-timey setpiece battles.

Of course, one confounding factor in this comparison is that the list of dead journalists in WWII is far from complete. Apparently, no one was actually counting at the time, and as far as I can tell, the lists were built up later from American and British military records of war correspondents killed while covering their military operations. In fact, the higher amount of attention paid to journalist deaths today appears to be largely a product of the proliferation of insurgencies and the corresponding substantial increase in danger to noncombatants in war.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

I mean I think it's just that nobody has ever seriously attempted to count the total journalists killed during World War 2. Like I can tell you the 69 figure is bullshit immediately because 113 employees from a single newspaper were killed at Hiroshima, and I have no doubt that other journalists were among the 100,000 people who were killed by the a-bombs, as well as the many other mass casualty events that occurred during the war due to indiscriminate conventional bombing of civilian targets.

Irony Be My Shield fucked around with this message at 15:52 on Jan 8, 2024

not a value-add
Jan 17, 2019

On the topic of journalists, how come Israel doesn’t do embedded journalists? Speaking of boomer logic, people seemed to love photos that came from the embedded photographers in Iraq. Especially that one of the marine that got shot inside the house and came out with blood all over his pants holding a pistol. Lots of look at how hard our boys are fighting god bless the usa sentiment and you would think Israel would jump at the opportunity to produce the same.

I gotta be honest, I think there’s more to them shooting all the journalists than just how urban combat is. If you buy the whole “we are trying our best to protect civilians and not to just shoot everything that moves but it’s just too hard” argument then yeah I guess you can make the same assumption about all the journalists. But I have a hard time believing either one.

not a value-add fucked around with this message at 15:52 on Jan 8, 2024

Civilized Fishbot
Apr 3, 2011

Fidelitious posted:

Well as long as they're using the same definition for both counts I don't think it really matters. The same relatively low count seems to be presented for Vietnam also.
Or you can compare to the still-ongoing Russia-Ukraine war (17).

If you're trying to figure out the relative level of journalist casualties in one conflict vs another, it obviously matters a lot that if the figures are obvious undercounts. There's no reason to assume the real value is just 2 or 3 times the estimated value, so that comparing the estimates yields the real ratio of deaths even if the estimates themselves are way off. It's very possible that whatever causes the undercount is exacerbated by conditions in one conflict, dampened by conditions in another.

This is just a point about how to use statistics. On the practical level, the massacre of journalists in Palestine is one reason among millions that Israel's campaign must be halted immediately.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

not a value-add posted:

On the topic of journalists, how come Israel doesn’t do embedded journalists? Speaking of boomer logic, people seemed to love photos that came from the embedded photographers in Iraq. Especially that one of the marine that got shot inside the house and came out with blood all over his pants holding a pistol. Lots of look at how hard our boys are fighting god bless the usa sentiment and you would think Israel would jump at the opportunity to produce the same.

Assuming that you're getting friendly "journalists" embedded with your troops, I think any fallout that might come from those pre-approved journalists dying is a risk you probably don't want to take, especially if you are trying to sell the war to your own people as a controlled, winning venture run by the most militarily competent people on Earth.

I'm not sure what the Netanyahu government has been trying to portray to its domestic audience, but what Israel has been taking on from a military standpoint seems way different than anything the US has had to deal with.

not a value-add
Jan 17, 2019

Hmm that’s an interesting thought. It kind of runs in parallel to the issue of being casualty-averse among the actual military personnel as well. I’m not very well versed on what the various Iraqi insurgent groups were armed with. Everything I have is from personal accounts but they definitely faced off against Dushkas, RPGs, and some very nasty IEDs. It was bad enough that you’d be stupid to go out without support from a heavier vehicle because they could just roast the humvees. It would be interesting to see a more academic breakdown.

What does seem different to me is the amount of dismounted infantry. Does Israel just not have the numbers? They’re conspicuously absent in most of the videos I’ve seen. The guys I’ve talked to on the US side fought backed up by Abrams and Brads. The Israelis seem to almost do the opposite.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


image text goes here
I think if I was a teenager in Gaza right now, I'd just be thinking about how do I set off a nuke in Tel Aviv?

Like, as a kid going through this, how do you not see Israel as a purely existential threat to everything you know and love?

Hong XiuQuan
Feb 19, 2008

"Without justice for the Palestinians there will be no peace in the Middle East."

not a value-add posted:

On the topic of journalists, how come Israel doesn’t do embedded journalists? Speaking of boomer logic, people seemed to love photos that came from the embedded photographers in Iraq. Especially that one of the marine that got shot inside the house and came out with blood all over his pants holding a pistol. Lots of look at how hard our boys are fighting god bless the usa sentiment and you would think Israel would jump at the opportunity to produce the same.

I gotta be honest, I think there’s more to them shooting all the journalists than just how urban combat is. If you buy the whole “we are trying our best to protect civilians and not to just shoot everything that moves but it’s just too hard” argument then yeah I guess you can make the same assumption about all the journalists. But I have a hard time believing either one.

Israel does do embedded journalists, quite famously. In fact it's the only form of non-Palestinian journalists they allow to operate in Gaza and this has been the case for the last 15-20 years. Ostensibly for safety concerns.

https://newrepublic.com/article/176919/cnn-abc-nbc-reporters-embedding-israeli-military-gaza

The problem the IDF stumbled across when doing it this year is that the sheer volume of viral imagery and videos coming out of Gaza from Gazan journalists (including those working for Al-Jaz) made the embedded journalists managed by Israel look so obviously like propaganda pawns, they've effectively been sidelined. And again it's the IDF fudging its own work. Issues included:

- Several cases of journalists trying to manufacture scary war scenes by pretending that they were in the midst of severe rocket barages (TAKE COVER!) while other people were wandering around unaffected

- Several cases of replaying blatant and falsified IDF propaganda, which I think probably hit its zenith with the "Look at this chart of terrorist responsibilities!" while pointing to an Arabic calendar

- Realising that it was causing severe credibility problems because all they had was lame footage of "tunnel entrances" and tanks while kids were getting their homes, bodies and lives shattered

not a value-add
Jan 17, 2019

Oh those are actually really good examples. I’ve seen some of those videos but I assumed they came from whatever the IDFs equivalent of a public affairs officer was, not an nominally independent media person because they seemed so hamfisted. I wonder why they don’t just photograph soldiers and marines doing soldier things like setting up behind cover, sleeping in a big pile, being dirty, being sweaty, trying to flip off the camera, there’s lots of material to work with.

not a value-add fucked around with this message at 17:52 on Jan 8, 2024

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012
Remember that Israel has constant, active and overt media censorship regarding military affairs, which it requires even foreign media like CNN to cooperate with. Freedom of the press is very much subordinate to the requirements of propaganda there, unlike in the US, where while the press tends to align with state interests, it's more of a negotiated partnership with two-way influence.

Timmy Age 6
Jul 23, 2011

Lobster says "mrow?"

Ramrod XTreme
Politico has a piece with some of the views from Washington on dealing with Israel.

Politico: The US Is Dealing With an Israeli Leader Who’s Losing Control posted:

U.S. officials have to work with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as they try to contain the Israel-Hamas war, but some are starting to wonder if he’s really in charge.
The Israeli leader is trying to stay in office and avoid prison on corruption charges, two linked desires that have long made him vulnerable to the demands of far-right members of his governing coalition. Now, an Israeli Supreme Court ruling against his effort to overhaul the judiciary may make him even more susceptible. The far-right figures — notably ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir — harbor deep anti-Palestinian views and are resistant to U.S. proposals that they consider too friendly to the Palestinians. If they abandon Netanyahu’s coalition, he could lose his prime ministership, increasing his legal peril. That has made Netanyahu reluctant to take American advice on the war, and it suggests that U.S.-Israeli tensions will grow as Palestinians struggle to survive Israel’s bombardment of the Gaza Strip.
“It’s not always clear who’s driving the train” in Israel, said a U.S. official familiar with American-Israeli discussions. “There have been times where [Netanyahu] has intimated or even been more explicit in telling us, ‘My hands are tied. You know, I have this coalition. It’s not me. It’s a coalition. It’s not me. It’s the political imperatives that I’m facing.’” The official, like a number of others I talked to, was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive talks.

...

Aaron David Miller, a former longtime Middle East negotiator, describes Netanyahu as increasingly desperate. This is, after all, a man who long cast himself as Israel’s best hope for security in a tough region — a brand badly damaged following the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that sparked the war.
“It is a terrible example of a leader who has conflated his own political survival with what he considers to be the best interests of this country. It’s a horrible combination, and it leads to terrible decision-making,” he told me.

...

Privately, some in the Biden administration are seething that Netanyahu is still the man atop Israel’s government, and they believe his political shelf-life is limited. They have not forgotten how Netanyahu, in their view, disrespected Barack Obama and cozied up to the former president’s successor Donald Trump — exploiting America’s own partisan divisions.
But U.S. officials aren’t giving up on Netanyahu amid this crisis.
President Joe Biden and his aides are in regular contact with the prime minister and his team, by phone or virtually if not in person. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is visiting Israel again this week as part of a fourth swing through the Middle East since Oct. 7, when Hamas militants killed some 1,200 people and took more than 200 hostages. At least 10 top Biden administration officials — including the president himself — have visited Israel since the war began, some multiple times. Many U.S. lawmakers also have made the trip.
So many American officials have seen or otherwise reached out to Netanyahu that some observers call it “Bibi-sitting.”

...

But two of the U.S. officials I talked to said he’s unwilling to agree to some American requests. For instance, the U.S. has urged Israel to release a chunk of tax revenue meant for the Palestinian Authority, the body that governs parts of the West Bank. The U.S. sees a reformed Palestinian Authority as an important player in a long-term solution to the crisis. But Smotrich has opposed sending the money, and Netanyahu appears unwilling to cross him.
U.S. officials also believe that the political pressure from the far-right is one reason Netanyahu drags his feet on U.S. requests to permit more humanitarian aid to reach Gaza, where many Palestinians are starving.
“It’s incredibly frustrating,” that first U.S. official told me.

Netanyahu also has at times broken with Biden and his team on more long-term issues — dismissing U.S. insistence that the Palestinian Authority play a role in eventually governing Gaza, not to mention the very idea of a future Palestinian state. Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have gone further, reportedly calling for the supposedly voluntary migration of Palestinians out of Gaza and future Israeli settlement and occupation of the territory. The State Department has blasted such comments as “ inflammatory and irresponsible.”
Washington has made little effort to build a relationship with either Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, worrying that the two could try to use such contact as a means of legitimizing their far-right ideas. I asked if it had been a mistake to sideline the pair, but both officials and analysts told me no. They argued that the men were too rigid in their views and far less practical than Netanyahu.
“These are not tactical disagreements based on perceptions or even interests,” the first U.S. official said. “They’re doing this out of ideology and even zealotry. So I don’t buy the argument that if we sat down with them and had a glass of kosher wine that we would have seen our way through our disagreements — not at all.”
“They’re hard core,” the second U.S. official added. “Bibi, while weak and problematic personally, is not an insane ideologue like these guys.”


...

Biden and his aides have never been very optimistic about the level of influence they have over Netanyahu or any other Israeli leader. Biden has also long been unwilling to impose conditions on U.S. military aid to Israel — a move that would be politically explosive and run against what he has described as a deep personal affinity for the country. The U.S. remains a stalwart defender of Israel at the United Nations.
Critics say these are leverage points the U.S. should use, but it’s not certain that doing so would lead Israel’s government to rethink its national security decisions anytime soon or its prime minister to forget about his political standing.

...

Plenty of officials and analysts suspect Netanyahu’s main motivation for staying in office is that he is hoping his far-right allies can help protect him from having to face charges ranging from fraud to bribery in multiple cases, including one in which he’s accused of inappropriately accepting gifts from wealthy businessmen. Netanyahu denies wrongdoing.
To keep the far-right’s support before the war, Netanyahu had promised to push through measures to weaken the judiciary’s ability to weigh in on government policies. The effort spurred months of massive protests from Israelis worried that it would damage Israel’s democracy by removing a critical check on the government in a country with no constitution. The Oct. 7 attack led Israelis to set aside their divisions and focus on defeating Hamas. While Israel’s Supreme Court recently ruled against the judicial overhaul, the government has appeared willing to respect the decision for now as it focuses on the war. The ruling, however, means that Netanyahu couldn’t deliver on a major promise to his political partners further to the right. Now, he cannot point to it when seeking favors from them. And it makes it harder for him to deny their ambitions, such as expanding Israeli control over the West Bank, where far-right Israeli settlers ramped up attacks against Palestinians after Oct. 7. Smotrich and Ben-Gvir probably won’t abandon Netanyahu’s coalition just yet, but “I do think he’s more vulnerable,” Miller said.
Some American officials argue that the longer the war takes, the easier it will be for Netanyahu to delay a serious inquiry into why Israel failed to prevent the Hamas attack. Successfully defeating Hamas could also reduce Israeli popular anger toward him. But Israeli politics are unpredictable. Even if the war shifts to a lower-intensity phase without formally being declared “over,” opposition politicians may quit the emergency war cabinet and return to agitating against Netanyahu. Meanwhile, the prime minister’s fellow Likud party members may see him as an albatross to abandon ahead of any elections. That could make Netanyahu even more beholden to fringe figures in other parties in his coalition, the second U.S. official said.

I'm inclined to think that there's a lot more pressure the US and Biden could apply (halting weapons shipments would be an obvious one) but I don't think it's likely that even that would actually cause the Israeli government as currently formulated to stop leveling Gaza... but it sure could reduce the number of available explosives.

youcallthatatwist
Sep 22, 2013
It's hard for me not to view that article as apologia for both Netanyahu and Biden, even if meant sincerely. It argues that there's nothing Biden can do to reign in Netanyahu and dismisses the idea of ending military funding as "politically explosive" (why?), and even then it frames Netanyahu as a victim of the Israeli far right, rather than an active participant. It also repeatedly emphasizes the 10/7 and only slips in the number of Palestinian civilian deaths in one paragraph towards the end; Hamas is presented as a "major obstacle to a two-state solution", but on the Israeli side only Netanyahu is presented as opposing "the very idea of a Palestinian state," and in a context that... implies the US is in favor?

OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013
Biden is advancing weapons shipments to Israel without congressional review or even the state departments normal internal reviews. He doesnt have his hands tied or something, he is an active participant in support of Israel's assault.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

youcallthatatwist posted:

It's hard for me not to view that article as apologia for both Netanyahu and Biden, even if meant sincerely. It argues that there's nothing Biden can do to reign in Netanyahu and dismisses the idea of ending military funding as "politically explosive" (why?), and even then it frames Netanyahu as a victim of the Israeli far right, rather than an active participant. It also repeatedly emphasizes the 10/7 and only slips in the number of Palestinian civilian deaths in one paragraph towards the end; Hamas is presented as a "major obstacle to a two-state solution", but on the Israeli side only Netanyahu is presented as opposing "the very idea of a Palestinian state," and in a context that... implies the US is in favor?

Most of what's in that article looks broadly accurate. There probably isn't much Biden can do to actually reign in Netanyahu, who is in fact at the mercy of the far right currently.

The problem is that for the last couple of years, Netanyahu's domestic political position has become increasingly tenuous, and the only way he's been able to avoid the end of his political career (possibly followed by a trip to prison) is by cozying up to increasingly extreme segments of the Israeli far right. That's dragged Netanyahu well to the right of where he personally stands politically (and he honestly doesn't do a great job of hiding his dislike), but he places his own personal political survival over everything else, so he's just had to put up with teaming up with a bunch of insane people who constantly demand all sorts of ridiculous bullshit that he doesn't really care about. That means that he's actually quite limited in what he can do politically, because his new bedfellows on the far right have absolutely zero loyalty toward him and will drop him the instant they feel he's no longer useful. It also means that it's quite difficult for the Biden administration to pressure him, because they lack useful carrots (they can't offer him any real political benefits to doing what they want) and sticks are dangerous and unpredictable (too much pressure will make Netanyahu's coalition collapse, and the US doesn't really want to be the cause of that).

Ending military funding to Israel would be "politically explosive" because support for Israel has remained a widely bipartisan and popular stance in the US for about half a century now, and abruptly ending it would be a considerable political issue even if the US wasn't currently hyper-polarized.

It's presenting things from the perspective of Israeli politicians because it's an article about Israeli politics, what Israeli politicians are likely to do, and what political considerations are seen as affecting Israeli politicians' stances and actions. The events of 10/7 are a whole lot more important to domestic Israeli politics than the Palestinian civilian death toll is.

The US has consistently been in favor of the establishment of a Palestinian state for decades, yes. It's just that the Americans, who tend to sympathize more with Israeli positions and demands, have generally been unable to cut a fair two-state solution, despite their honest efforts to do so. For example, American peace negotiators would tend to be quite sensitive to the domestic political considerations of the Israeli government, while discounting or ignoring the domestic political circumstances of Palestinian negotiators. Meanwhile, Netanyahu long opposed the two-state solution, and while in recent years he occasionally suggests that he's open to it, he doesn't exactly seem too enthusiastic about it. Hamas long opposed a two-state solution as well, and while they've expressed openness to it in recent years, they're just as unenthusiastic about the idea as Netanyahu is. And Hamas' existence still poses a number of difficult practical obstacles to actually negotiating one, like "who would govern said Palestinian state?".

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

The ray of hope is that there are still a range of futures where at some point Netanyahu goes to prison, his allies are tainted by association, and Israeli politics stabilises around the centre right.

Yeah I know, but that's the reasonable best case scenario here.

Your Brain on Hugs
Aug 20, 2006
So basically you're saying there is in fact a whole lot the US could do to end the genocide, but also it would be hard and they absolutely don't want to.

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012
See, Eisenhower got the UK, France and Israel to stop being shits in Egypt over a weekend of phone calls and the US was not even the sole hyperpower then, and even Reagan managed to rein in israeli butchery after having a brain fart and thinking he was in a movie, but it's unthinkable to imagine Biden could affect one iota of influence, the smol bean.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."
Breathtaking how little power the American President really has, really feel for the guy.

Gnumonic
Dec 11, 2005

Maybe you thought I was the Packard Goose?

Your Brain on Hugs posted:

So basically you're saying there is in fact a whole lot the US could do to end the genocide, but also it would be hard and they absolutely don't want to.

Don't you see that we must accept as fait accompli the capture of our foreign policy by the Israel lobby? That the US must give unconditional support to Israel is a natural law that Biden is compelled to obey and has no power to change.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Your Brain on Hugs posted:

So basically you're saying there is in fact a whole lot the US could do to end the genocide, but also it would be hard and they absolutely don't want to.

No, I'm saying there's a lot the US could do to cause the fall of the current coalition. Causing new elections while the Israeli populace is still in the midst of a massive wave of anger and hatred toward Palestinians isn't especially likely to stop the genocide. Current polls suggest the left and center are lined up to lose a bunch of seats to the right-wing parties. While Likud itself is likely to lose big in new elections, pretty much all the seats they're losing are going to other right-wing parties...and on top of that, Labor and Yesh Atid are also expected to lose a bunch of seats to the right-wing parties.

There's no telling exactly how the coalition negotiations would shake out in a post-Netanyahu world, but when Labor and Meretz combined are expected to get fewer seats than Otzma Yehudit, I wouldn't expect a mid-war election to improve things.

Bel Shazar
Sep 14, 2012

Seems like the right pattern to follow would be Operation Deliberate Force, but the US isn't ever going to intervene on the side of the Palestinians.

Mischievous Mink
May 29, 2012

Main Paineframe posted:

No, I'm saying there's a lot the US could do to cause the fall of the current coalition. Causing new elections while the Israeli populace is still in the midst of a massive wave of anger and hatred toward Palestinians isn't especially likely to stop the genocide. Current polls suggest the left and center are lined up to lose a bunch of seats to the right-wing parties. While Likud itself is likely to lose big in new elections, pretty much all the seats they're losing are going to other right-wing parties...and on top of that, Labor and Yesh Atid are also expected to lose a bunch of seats to the right-wing parties.

There's no telling exactly how the coalition negotiations would shake out in a post-Netanyahu world, but when Labor and Meretz combined are expected to get fewer seats than Otzma Yehudit, I wouldn't expect a mid-war election to improve things.

There's a lot the US can do right now, but instead we live in the reality where Biden supports the genocide and is going out of his way to give as many extra weapons as he can to Israel.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Mischievous Mink posted:

There's a lot the US can do right now, but instead we live in the reality where Biden supports the genocide and is going out of his way to give as many extra weapons as he can to Israel.

I would suggest that Biden doesn't support the genocide per se. If he thought he could flip a switch and end it with no side effects he almost certainly would, but he's also a long time high level US politician, so he'll keep funding the sacking of Gaza to avoid rocking the boat.

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012

suck my woke dick posted:

I would suggest that Biden doesn't support the genocide per se. If he thought he could flip a switch and end it with no side effects he almost certainly would, but he's also a long time high level US politician, so he'll keep funding the sacking of Gaza to avoid rocking the boat.

He keeps bypassing Congress to send extra weapons. That's going above and beyond the call of duty.

rscott
Dec 10, 2009

suck my woke dick posted:

I would suggest that Biden doesn't support the genocide per se. If he thought he could flip a switch and end it with no side effects he almost certainly would, but he's also a long time high level US politician, so he'll keep funding the sacking of Gaza to avoid rocking the boat.

Joe Biden is an unabashed self proclaimed Zionist, he would be supporting Israel's genocidal campaign even if it was incredibly unpopular because he thinks it's the right thing to do.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead
https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1744416934458691723?s=20

Don't say it so loud :ohdear:

anyway this has been my impression of the Biden administration's current dominant factions (ie, pro israel but not especially happy with their current strategy and trying limply to get them to back off for everyone's benefit) , but i haven't been impressed with their effectiveness to date

Halloween Jack
Sep 12, 2003
I WILL CUT OFF BOTH OF MY ARMS BEFORE I VOTE FOR ANYONE THAT IS MORE POPULAR THAN BERNIE!!!!!

suck my woke dick posted:

I would suggest that Biden doesn't support the genocide per se.
He's the head of the state whose unconditional military support is necessary for Israel to continue to exist and to carry out a genocide, so yes, he does support the genocide per se even if he per says he doesn't.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane
We support what we allow.

All western nations support Israeli genocide, it's just the simple fact of the matter. When Russia invaded Ukraine under similarly bullshit pretenses, we saw just how quickly they could move to institute sanctions and expel diplomats and every other thing they could manage, and now we're happy when some nations don't explicitly support Israel with rhetoric and military aid? That's the world's lowest loving bar to clear, to be sure.

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

rscott posted:

Joe Biden is an unabashed self proclaimed Zionist, he would be supporting Israel's genocidal campaign even if it was incredibly unpopular because he thinks it's the right thing to do.

Why is he trying to tell Israel/Netenyahu to murder less civilians/not take over Gaza/etc? I can’t imagine him doing any of that if he fully supported Israel’s genocidal campaign, regardless of public opinion.

Kalit fucked around with this message at 03:15 on Jan 9, 2024

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane
I don't think he does want the genocidal campaign to continue at full speed and/or as it's currently being executed, but I also think if he didn't support the genocide in a more general sense, he would take action to actually put pressure on Israel apart from flapping his useless loving gums. He's used executive action to send more arms to Israel. His administration has repeatedly been vetoing any UNSC resolutions against what Israel is doing, no matter how milquetoast. Do these sound like the actions of a man who is upset at what Israel is presently doing with the arms they already have?

Use a bit of common sense here.

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

PT6A posted:

I don't think he does want the genocidal campaign to continue at full speed and/or as it's currently being executed, but I also think if he didn't support the genocide in a more general sense, he would take action to actually put pressure on Israel apart from flapping his useless loving gums. He's used executive action to send more arms to Israel. His administration has repeatedly been vetoing any UNSC resolutions against what Israel is doing, no matter how milquetoast. Do these sound like the actions of a man who is upset at what Israel is presently doing with the arms they already have?

Use a bit of common sense here.

The poster I was responding to stated Biden would support the genocidal campaign even if it was incredibly unpopular among the US populace. Why would he feign restraint, to any degree, if he truly supported the genocidal campaign?

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


image text goes here

Kalit posted:

The poster I was responding to stated Biden would support the genocidal campaign even if it was incredibly unpopular among the US populace. Why would he feign restraint, to any degree, if he truly supported the genocidal campaign?

I think the technical term for this is, "covering your rear end". My personal view is that the two carrier groups should have been employed to enforce a no fly zone over Gaza from the first day they were on station.

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PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Kalit posted:

The poster I was responding to stated Biden would support the genocidal campaign even if it was incredibly unpopular among the US populace. Why would he feign restraint, to any degree, if he truly supported the genocidal campaign?

Fair enough, I apologize for the misunderstanding. I would say that the poster you're referring to is positing an absurd counterfactual because there's no world in which Israel is unpopular with Americans in general but popular with Biden specifically. He's pro-Israel precisely because that's been the historical American position on the issue -- that's not to suggest he doesn't feel strongly about it, but he feels strongly about it for the same reason most Americans do, which is propaganda driven by realpolitik.

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