(Thread IKs:
fart simpson)
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Source: Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/01/05/taiwan-election-united-states-interest-china/ Opinion Why a Taiwan election upset could be a U.S. blessing By Jason Willick January 5, 2024 at 6:00 a.m. EST Given that the CIA believes Chinese President Xi Jinping wants the ability to take over Taiwan by 2027, the invasion threat won’t be a distant abstraction when Taiwanese voters elect a new president on Jan. 13. The two major parties — the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Kuomintang (KMT) — differ most starkly on relations with Beijing. Since the island’s first presidential election in 1996, the DPP has emphasized Taiwan’s separate national identity from China, while the KMT has sought greater accommodation with the giant across the strait. What is the United States’ interest in the coming vote? The foreign-policy community in Washington clearly tilts toward the DPP. The pro-American party has held the presidency for the past eight years as both the Trump and Biden administrations forged closer ties with Taipei. The DPP’s candidate, Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, is the current vice president. His running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim, has been popular in Washington since 2020 as Taiwan’s special envoy. The DPP emphasizes democracy and freedom in a way that resonates in the United States. So while a DPP victory would be hailed as an ideological rebuke of Beijing, I wonder whether a KMT victory this time around wouldn’t be a strategic reprieve for Washington. With wars in Europe and the Middle East, U.S. power is stretched dangerously, historically thin. The temporary reduction in cross-strait tensions that would accompany a KMT victory could give Washington a window — if politicians are willing to seize it — to put the U.S. military deterrent on a firmer footing. Zoom out from the current election: Maintaining Taiwan’s sovereignty is one of the few fixed priorities in the United States’ erratic foreign policy. Letting the strategic island fall to Beijing would devastate Washington’s alliance structure and military position in Asia. The Defense Department says China is the United States’ most formidable rival, and Taiwan — just 100 miles from China’s coast with a population of about 24 million — is the U.S. ally China most consistently threatens. The United States hasn’t kept up with the challenge. Adm. John Aquilino, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said in 2022 that China is conducting “the largest military buildup in history since World War II.” Australian and British officials agree. Meantime, the Pentagon budget is roughly flat as a share of U.S. gross domestic product, and far below Cold War levels. The military-industrial base is under pressure from supplying Ukraine in its war with Russia even as the Biden administration tries to supply Israel’s war with Hamas and deter a war with Iran. The shortage of missiles is especially dire, as the Wall Street Journal reports, noting a simulation that found “America would run out of all-important long-range anti-ship missiles within the first week” of a war over Taiwan. The United States has allowed its ability to ensure Taiwan’s political independence — which it has guaranteed, more or less, since Japan lost control of the island in 1945 — to fall into doubt. Amid a deteriorating world situation, a stronger showing by the KMT, represented by Hou Yu-ih, the former mayor of New Taipei City, might be a blessing in disguise for the United States. China, or at least China’s ruling Communist Party, will never concede Taiwan’s sovereignty. The best path to preventing a war of “unification” is probably to postpone it, ideally indefinitely, through fictions such as the “one China” policy, in which the United States hedges about Taiwan’s official status while maintaining its de facto independence. The KMT, mugged by Xi’s 2020 crackdown in Hong Kong, has been forced to take the China threat more seriously and would be in no political position to give away the store to China even if it wanted to. A third consecutive DPP term, on the other hand, could empower hawks in Beijing to argue that Taiwanese nationalists are so firmly in control that any resolution other than one involving the use of force is unrealistic. And they could make that argument at a time when U.S. deterrent power is more decayed than it has been in decades. The DPP, despite some worthy reforms, has failed to fundamentally alter the island’s severe defense deficiencies in its eight years in power. As Michael J. Lostumbo observes, “much of Taiwan’s defense budget is locked into capabilities that are neither survivable nor potent.” Taipei is relying on the U.S. Air Force and Navy to ride to the rescue. The DPP is the favorite to win next week. Lai has led throughout the campaign. But with a third-party in the mix and one recent poll showing Lai’s lead at only three percentage points, anything is possible. Taiwanese voters will surely take the world situation into account as they cast their ballots, and they are in the best position to judge their own national interest. Whatever they decide, avoiding Taiwan’s absorption by China will remain a top U.S. foreign policy priority. If the DPP wins as expected, the long-term trend of convergence between Washington and Taipei will continue. That convergence can help ward off a Chinese attack if the threat is still remote and if Taiwan and the United States diligently build up their defenses in the coming years. But if the threat is imminent, a KMT upset could buy the United States crucial time to restore its eroded military deterrent. It’s that deterrent on which Taiwan’s independence — its ability to choose its own leadership in the first place — ultimately depends.
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Jan 9, 2024 05:35
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敌踢A
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Jan 9, 2024 05:35
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"The United States has allowed its ability to ensure Taiwan’s political independence — which it has guaranteed, more or less, since Japan lost control of the island in 1945 — to fall into doubt." leaving out a big thing lol
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Jan 9, 2024 05:41
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lol
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Jan 9, 2024 05:41
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Orange Devil posted:There's no conception of countries as actors, full stop. A lot makes sense realising capitalist economics views countries as passive hosts for corporations.
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Jan 9, 2024 06:10
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https://twitter.com/seriations/status/1744440768914407669quote:countdown to the canadian parliament giving a standing ovation to some guy who participated in the rape of nanjing
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Jan 9, 2024 06:23
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https://twitter.com/Partron_/status/1744198222023631071
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Jan 9, 2024 07:29
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Orange Devil posted:They correctly expect capitalists to move the lower level of their value chain to a country with cheaper wages so as to maximize their profit. I don't understand this process. China may or may not be a socialist country, but it most definitely has a capitalist CLASS, and this class must operate it's firms by the logic of profit. if their returns are shrinking due to higher qol and rising wages in china, if they're forced to grin, eat poo poo and bear it they're going to run into the same contradictions the (allowed to be imperial core) keynesian west did in the 70s.
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Jan 9, 2024 07:42
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mila kunis posted:I don't understand this process. China may or may not be a socialist country, but it most definitely has a capitalist CLASS, and this class must operate it's firms by the logic of profit. if their returns are shrinking due to higher qol and rising wages in china, if they're forced to grin, eat poo poo and bear it they're going to run into the same contradictions the (allowed to be imperial core) keynesian west did in the 70s. the difference would be that, if the capitalist class arent the ones running the show, then the country as a whole will have different ways out of keynesian style crisis
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Jan 9, 2024 08:08
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fart simpson posted:the difference would be that, if the capitalist class arent the ones running the show, then the country as a whole will have different ways out of keynesian style crisis Ya, but a crisis will come and something will have to change.
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Jan 9, 2024 08:10
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mila kunis posted:Ya, but a crisis will come and something will have to change. Difference is the government actually has different options on the table than 'Give even more money to the ultra-wealthy'.
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Jan 9, 2024 08:20
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Mantis42 posted:
leninist germany with 17x population ftw
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Jan 9, 2024 08:41
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Kinda lol there was a whole plan after one of the World Wars to completely deindustrialise Germany as punishment and they ended up doing it themselves
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Jan 9, 2024 08:45
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Megamissen posted:"The United States has allowed its ability to ensure Taiwan’s political independence — which it has guaranteed, more or less, since Japan lost control of the island in 1945 — to fall into doubt." i previously might have considered that the author is deliberately sneaking in these historical facts to pique the interest of the reader to investigate and learn more about the actual circumstances of taiwan but seeing the entire liberal class saluting yaroslav the jewslayer and openly attempt to rehabilitate nazis has disabused me of this theory
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Jan 9, 2024 08:46
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Ghost Leviathan posted:Kinda lol there was a whole plan after one of the World Wars to completely deindustrialise Germany as punishment and they ended up doing it themselves if you believe the idea that the EU was actually a US plan to puppet the entire continent via their control over Germany, they just played the long game and took everyone out. All the other EU countries just slowly deindustrialised because hey, germany is there.
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Jan 9, 2024 09:04
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Regarde Aduck posted:if you believe the idea that the EU was actually a US plan to puppet the entire continent via their control over Germany, they just played the long game and took everyone out. All the other EU countries just slowly deindustrialised because hey, germany is there. It's not so much a plan as it is neoliberalism being a suicide pact
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Jan 9, 2024 09:12
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Ghost Leviathan posted:It's not so much a plan as it is neoliberalism being a suicide pact it’s an autopilot you can’t turn off even when the plane is clearly crashing
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Jan 9, 2024 09:39
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Zodium posted:it’s an autopilot you can’t turn off even when the plane is clearly crashing 
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Jan 9, 2024 10:24
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ModernMajorGeneral posted:this is a few years old but I saw it today and challenge any of you to find a more drat, people support the political party that does stuff for them?
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Jan 9, 2024 10:42
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at what cost
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fatelvis posted:drat, people support the political party that does stuff for them? No I vote for the less fascistic party
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Jan 9, 2024 10:45
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fatelvis posted:drat, people support the political party that does stuff for them? mainlanders seeing philippines etc decaying under VOTEZ after VOTEZ is just seeseepee brainwashing
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Jan 9, 2024 10:53
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fatelvis posted:drat, people support the political party that does stuff for them? https://twitter.com/DrHueyLi/status/1744015268873998544
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Jan 9, 2024 10:58
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"NAFO contractor" How does anyone get so pathetic and self loathing?
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Jan 9, 2024 11:03
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they got an asian guy to spin the bowtie this time
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Jan 9, 2024 11:06
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https://twitter.com/haaretzcom/status/1743373050538508681 china ftw
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Jan 9, 2024 11:30
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So sloppy in their messaging they can't decide whether they are fighting Palestinians or Hamas in the same sentence
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Jan 9, 2024 11:34
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Ghost Leviathan posted:A lot makes sense realising capitalist economics views countries as passive hosts for corporations. Dictatorship of the bourgeoisie explains all of it. The bourgeois in pre-WW1 Germany and Japan owned the state, and used it to achieve industrialization and protect/subsidize their domestic industries (aka, the industries those bourgeois owned) so they could compete on the global market against already establised industries, such as those of Britain, the US and Belgium (yes, Belgium, look it up). But once you have competitive industry you don't want trade barriers that stop your competition, you want "free trade" so you can maximally exploit your competitive advantage. So you use the state, which you still own, to do that, for example by gunboat diplomacy against anyone trying to erect barriers or tariffs. And once you have a financialized economy the primary thing that matter is free flow of capital, and government needs to get out of the way and levy as little taxes as possible. You don't need government to maintain expensive gunboats anymore (you think), as your capital is virtual and you yourself have become a rootless cosmpolitan who can just go wherever is most convenient. The point now is to own a little bit of *everything* (see Blackrock) and extract rents from every conceivable bit of labour being performed. Rents which must flow into your pockets unhindered. And you don't need any messy compromises with domestic labour to compete against foreign capitalists anymore either, as the capitalist class has become an international class who all own the same stocks and bonds with no regard to nations or states. The shared interest is exploiting all of international labour, so that's what you use the governments you still own to do. Orange Devil has issued a correction as of 11:59 on Jan 9, 2024 |
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Jan 9, 2024 11:44
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that's right
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Jan 9, 2024 11:46
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RedSky posted:"NAFO contractor" im more amused by the video reply of taiwanese homeless
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Jan 9, 2024 11:52
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mila kunis posted:I don't understand this process. China may or may not be a socialist country, but it most definitely has a capitalist CLASS, and this class must operate it's firms by the logic of profit. if their returns are shrinking due to higher qol and rising wages in china, if they're forced to grin, eat poo poo and bear it they're going to run into the same contradictions the (allowed to be imperial core) keynesian west did in the 70s. Yes, but while China currently has a capitalist class, it is not essential for China to continue to have a capitalist class forever. mila kunis posted:Ya, but a crisis will come and something will have to change. Correct. Something that might change is the Chinese government assuming more control over mature industries, possibly through outright nationalization, and abolishing the specific capitalists involved in those industries, shrinking the capitalist class. There might still be a capitalist class for new start-ups in new industries trying to exploit new technologies. Rapid development of new stuff like this where it is unsure if there will be returns is something capitalism can be quite good at in the right circumstances. So have private citizens take those risks and allow them to reap good rewards if they turn out to be right and manage it well. But never under any circumstances allow them political power, and once they become mature industries running into the contradictions of capitalism, it's time for the government to step in. Doing it this way also offloads organisational bandwith from the government onto basically the private bureaucracies that are private industries. So you don't need a civil servant trying to imagine why people might want whatever new gizmo, you can just use the market as a tool (which is all a market is, a tool) to figure out if enough people want said gizmo badly enough to be economically viable within the guarded parameters for environmental protection, labour rights etcetc the government which isn't owned by the capitalists has determined. Incidentally the market is a very good tool for this particular job. You can argue that the failure to use markets in this way caused the Soviet/East-German resentment over Levi Jeans or whatever. From a central planners perspective why the gently caress would anyone care so much about these specific pants when you are already being provided perfectly servicable pants by state industry? But alas, this is people, best to accept it, but keep it under control.
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Jan 9, 2024 11:55
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Orange Devil posted:Dictatorship of the bourgeoisie explains all of it. Yup
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Jan 9, 2024 12:01
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Free trade is morally good until one day the other guy becomes competitive, then you ban them enter any market you control for "national security" and "carbon footprint" reasons. Or even outright banning them from buying the fastest video cards, just throw bannings on the wall and see what sticks.
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Jan 9, 2024 12:31
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mila kunis posted:I don't understand this process. China may or may not be a socialist country, but it most definitely has a capitalist CLASS, and this class must operate it's firms by the logic of profit. if their returns are shrinking due to higher qol and rising wages in china, if they're forced to grin, eat poo poo and bear it they're going to run into the same contradictions the (allowed to be imperial core) keynesian west did in the 70s. That is the thing though Chinese industry is already so dominant and has such an economy of scale that those industries can absorb higher wages and still turn a higher profit because there is still such high domestic and overseas demand for their product. No one can manufacture like China can, and the more industries they get into, the more they are going to give new opportunities for those capitalists. China by increasingly dominating the electric car market is only going to spur more domestic demand for materials from within China. It is why also the Chinese are trying to do everything possible to insource as much as they can including food production. Certainly things they have to trade for, but even then they are working with the Russians, for example, to get the best prices possible or (such as Iron ore) increasing production domestically. Arguably, you could say these is a limit to all things but I wonder in their own way, but with certain challenges like climate change, there may still be more future demand around the corner.
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Jan 9, 2024 13:02
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Farahany reports that an American neurotech company, BrainCo, has been selling EEG headsets to schools in China, where they are used to track student engagement. Farahany also suggests that the Chinese government may be using brain data to predict people’s political beliefs. Brainwave Science, a company that included retired general and Trump conspiracist Michael Flynn on its board of directors, has sold its products to governments around the world. One of these products, iCognative, ostensibly “extracts information from people’s brains” and has been used successfully to prosecute murder cases in Dubai. In one case, investigators showed potential suspects pictures of the crime while monitoring their brain waves with an EEG headset. “Purportedly,” Farahany writes, “a photo of the murder weapon triggered a characteristic ‘recognition’ pattern” in the brain of one of the suspects, who then confessed.
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Jan 10, 2024 01:07
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I've seen those, they use them in the jackoff factories Dr. Peterson warned us about
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Jan 10, 2024 02:51
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They should detect reactionary mindsets at birth and treat them with CRISPR. Communist Gattaca
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Jan 10, 2024 03:02
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https://twitter.com/USA_BaoziLover/status/1744627730535354806 dudes rock
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Jan 10, 2024 04:01
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It's rare that I read news stories that make me worried about the future of China, but here's one Xinhua Headlines: Second-generation entrepreneurs take up family business baton, seek innovation quote:* It is also a common problem facing the country's bustling economic hubs where the management transition of family enterprises holds implications for regional economic prospects.
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Jan 10, 2024 14:44
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and that's why maoism is needed
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Jan 10, 2024 14:56
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Thinkin about the pitbull meme 3x Leninist 17x population China
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Jan 10, 2024 14:59
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