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I think you've both hit the nail on the head - the real reason why Bryce's rookie year is being magnified so much is because Stroud has had maybe the best rookie quarterback season ever. Is it entirely fair for us to drat Bryce Young because they passed on someone who looks like a Top 5-10 QB already? Sure, the Panthers drafted the wrong guy - that much is obvious, but we're perhaps being a little quick to call Bryce a bust. (To be clear, I don't think Bryce is gonna make it. I think he's not physically capable of being a long term QB in the NFL).
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Jan 9, 2024 19:21
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Doltos posted:You're not allowed to say Peyton Manning even though he's an example? That's kind of selective bias right there. lol this post kinda pretty much nails it fsif posted:I guess it depends on how you define "bounce back," but there really aren't many QBs with terrible rookie seasons that become solid starters or better. This comes up every offseason and you can't get through one hand until you're starting to count QBs that were drafted nearly two decades ago.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:22
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I’m going to leave aside my usual Trevor Bust stuff and say this, he cost them a playoff spot by trying to play hurt. He had the ankle thing, the concussion thing, and the shoulder thing, he really should have tried to sit instead of rushing back from the first two. Now who can say if it was him rushing back or the team rushing him back but it was poo poo decision making regardless. He was touted as the latest “generational” prospect and he just isn’t that. He’s baseline play with the capacity to have consistently good stretches and great individual games but he’s not elite by any means. On that note can we please retire the phrase generational because it’s become absolutely meaningless when it’s applied to a different rookie QB every other season.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:23
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CJ Stroud is a generational Jesus worshipper.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:23
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I wasn't super paying attention to the 2023 QB Draft class but after watching Bryce Young play this year I am astonished scouts were able to gaslight themselves into thinking he was worth the 1st overall pick. Dude may...have an outside shot at being an NFL caliber player but I don't see how physically anyone could talk themselves into thinking he deserved the 1st overall much less trading the next 5 years of your franchise capital for him. He's too loving small man. Sometimes players, like Drew Brees, can overcome that, but they need to be otherworldly in other aspects. He hasn't shown that propensity yet.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:24
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:Eh, I feel like this is slightly disingenuous because for someone who loves to watch film and talk about actually watching players play as much as you do, you really think their performances were on par with Young's? Yes, in fact many were worse than Young's, both statistically and when you watch them. wandler20 posted:lol this post kinda pretty much nails it Almost everyone on that list is a solid starter or better I don't know what else to say here other than people are being a little ridiculous and putting their fingers in their ears
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Jan 9, 2024 19:24
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look at all these "attempts" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkh0vfNC7Hc this video also has probably his best throw of the year.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:24
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Mike N Eich posted:I wasn't super paying attention to the 2023 QB Draft class but after watching Bryce Young play this year I am astonished scouts were able to gaslight themselves into thinking he was worth the 1st overall pick. Dude may...have an outside shot at being an NFL caliber player but I don't see how physically anyone could talk themselves into thinking he deserved the 1st overall much less trading the next 5 years of your franchise capital for him. Part of it is the Panthers made it very clear very early on that Bryce was going to be the pick, after they had dinner with him, and that kinda amplified all th talking heads and anonymous comments etc. Easy way to be proven right. If the Panthers had taken Stroud, I don't know if the Texans would have taken Bryce. There was a lot of smoke there too, and lots of rumors about trades this way or that. Remember, the Panthers were originally trying to move up to like five, but the deal wasn't going fast enough so Tepper threw his diet coke against the wall and demanded that Fitterer just go to one no matter the cost. If he had made it past Houston, I don't think a Brady Quinn-esque fall would have been unreasonable.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:27
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Doltos posted:
I get it if you look at it from a statistical perspective, but my major concern is his physical size. Fiz is right, he's having significant problems seeing over the line. The Saints had to completely design their offense around Brees (which, fair, he's an all time great quarterback so you definitely do that every time). Panthers will need to get some incredible interior line play to get Young lanes to actually throw the ball to. They aren't anywhere close to that, and I don't expect Young to be the kind of player to justify such significant investment in the guards. Edit: Yeah c'mon Doltos watch Fiz's video and tell me that isn't a major concern.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:27
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FizFashizzle posted:look at all these "attempts" The first 6 plays in this are covered featuring a designed screen, a slants concept, and two good scrambles. He overthrows a guy with someone directly in his face, which most QBs would do, and then hits a dime down the sideline. I don't think this is the gotcha that you think it is. Like I know you want to fault him for some of these turfed throws but he literally has someone directly in his throw arc which would affect any QB in the league, and these guys are absolutely blanketed all over the field. I'd need all 22 but like, cmon.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:27
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FizFashizzle posted:look at all these "attempts" I'll be honest - he moves better than I remember him moving. He's pretty shifty
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Jan 9, 2024 19:28
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Doltos posted:The first 6 plays in this are covered featuring a designed screen, a slants concept, and two good scrambles. He overthrows a guy with someone directly in his face, which most QBs would do, and then hits a dime down the sideline. I don't think this is the gotcha that you think it is. Dude - why do you think they are calling those plays in the first place?!
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Jan 9, 2024 19:29
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Kirios posted:Dude - why do you think they are calling those plays in the first place?! What do you mean? You think taller QBs never throw it short on designed YAC plays?
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Jan 9, 2024 19:30
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Doltos posted:Almost everyone on that list is a solid starter or better I don't know what else to say here other than people are being a little ridiculous and putting their fingers in their ears C'mon, Flacco and Tannehill? Geno is borderline. So basically a handful and a bunch of old guys like the post said.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:31
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No but you're kind of showing that you haven't watched a lot of their offense (Which, fair, it's brutal and I don't expect anyone that isn't a Panthers fan to do so. I only have because I was curious between Stroud and Young until it became clear Stroud was the correct choice). That is a significant portion, if not all of their offense. The only time you see him stay in the pocket is when significant lanes have been created for him to see through. They have to get elite guards to reliably do that for him - otherwise he's immediately running to the side. That's not sustainable.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:32
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wandler20 posted:C'mon, Flacco and Tannehill? Geno is borderline. So basically a handful and a bunch of old guys like the post said. Flacco is currently leading a team to the playoffs as a 38 year old, won a super bowl, and had insane talent while doing it. Geno and Tannehill are both starters and both featured good seasons. The post is wrong. It's also disingenuous to leave off Stafford, Young, Allen, and Manning in that list because it doesn't fit the narrative you want. Kirios posted:No but you're kind of showing that you haven't watched a lot of their offense (Which, fair, it's brutal and I don't expect anyone that isn't a Panthers fan to do so. I only have because I was curious between Stroud and Young until it became clear Stroud was the correct choice). I mean I just sat down and watched him get destroyed by a sieve oline for 10 minutes of that youtube. Looks to me like his WRs were completely blanketed most of the time and they're running a WCO that features quick hitting routes to make up for the crappy oline, except the WRs aren't fast enough to run them. He throws some dimes in that film and his pocket abandoning is pretty rational.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:34
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Kirios posted:No but you're kind of showing that you haven't watched a lot of their offense (Which, fair, it's brutal and I don't expect anyone that isn't a Panthers fan to do so. I only have because I was curious between Stroud and Young until it became clear Stroud was the correct choice). I respect Daltos opinion on this stuff, and I think he's partly playing devils advocate and partly talking about a player he (admittedly) didn't watch much of this season. Panthers were attempting more downfield sideline shots earlier in the year and Bryce couldn't even throw a catchable ball. Even in the first quarter and a half of the Atlanta game, before there was any tape on him (because the team hid him in the preseason and with good reason) and he was moving the ball decently, he was struggling to connect on anything deep. And yeah, Chark loving sucks but he was throwing balls out of bounds. Then the Falcons figured him out and shut him down the rest of the game.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:35
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FizFashizzle posted:look at all these "attempts" anyway yeah this tape is bad. he seems to have no downfield vision, can't throw on the move, I still hate his footwork when there's a defender in his face he just cannot throw it past him reliably
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Jan 9, 2024 19:36
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Yeah you're right - the receivers definitely don't help. Bryce was put into the worst situation I've seen for a rookie quarterback since David Carr. He was also starting to see ghosts the last few games of the year too so we may be talking about something that's already too late. And that...really isn't his fault. Hopefully I'm wrong - fanbases that have been so bad to get the #1 overall pick deserve to get their guy after suffering so much. But I just don't see it Doltos, honestly. With Bryce Young I see someone who is physically incapable of playing the quarterback position in the NFL at a decent clip unless the offense is dramatically changed to compensate for his limitations. And I don't see him ever becoming a good enough player to justify that investment.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:37
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I don't think I saw Young complete a pass between the numbers until 3:10 in the video. There's a couple decent throws in there (and a fantastic touch deep ball) but otherwise... Woof. Yeah, there's a ton of pressure in his face, but he's also missing on some of the quick dump off stuff as well. And there's at least 2 missed interceptions. I dunno, you don't get to 66th in EPA per play without it being a lot on you.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:41
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Bismack Billabongo posted:I’m going to leave aside my usual Trevor Bust stuff and say this, he cost them a playoff spot by trying to play hurt. He had the ankle thing, the concussion thing, and the shoulder thing, he really should have tried to sit instead of rushing back from the first two. Now who can say if it was him rushing back or the team rushing him back but it was poo poo decision making regardless.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:44
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wandler20 posted:C'mon, Flacco and Tannehill? Geno is borderline. So basically a handful and a bunch of old guys like the post said. Nevermind, like, including Jalen Hurts's four-game rookie season or trying to pass off 2023 stats as comparable to 2009 stats. It's fine, every year in perpetuity we'll convince ourselves that draft prospects that were never meaningfully billed as "projects" actually were and then insist the Zach Wilson's of the world get second and third seasons because they might reach the lofty heights of Geno Smith one day.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:45
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FizFashizzle posted:Panthers were attempting more downfield sideline shots earlier in the year and Bryce couldn't even throw a catchable ball. Even in the first quarter and a half of the Atlanta game, before there was any tape on him (because the team hid him in the preseason and with good reason) and he was moving the ball decently, he was struggling to connect on anything deep. And yeah, Chark loving sucks but he was throwing balls out of bounds.       I know these are highlights but I mean the guys got an arm and those are very catchable balls.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:47
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I think it's fascinating actually - I'd consider myself more locked in than most on college players and the draft in general and the Doltos' of the world are a step beyond myself. We all evaluated these quarterbacks especially, as they're the ones that get the most study on them, and none of us were calling Bryce a bust. I believe Daltos and myself had Stroud above him, but he was solidly the second best QB. No one saw this coming. So what do we naturally do as humans? We go back and re evaluate, and try to figure out how a player who was projected to be a fantastic NFL quarterback has turned out to be so...bad. I actually really enjoy this kind of discourse - evaluating players would be way more boring if everyone panned out exactly like we thought.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:48
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fsif posted:Nevermind, like, including Jalen Hurts's four-game rookie season or trying to pass off 2023 stats as comparable to 2009 stats. 2009 QB stats are actually pretty comparable to 2023 stats. In 2009 Brees led the league with 34 TDs vs Dak’s 36. Schaub had 4770 yards vs 4624 for Tua. And that’s with the 2023 seasons including an extra game. It was probably a little harder to play QB this year than in 2009.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:49
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I want to be clear I thought Stroud was way better than Young in pretty much every facet coming into the draft. I don't think Young is infallible but he's not nearly as bad as people are making him out to be. He appears to have rookie jitters that a lot of QB's have. I also think we live in a zero sum world where people understandably want their QB to instantly be RG3 or Herbert quality in their rookie years. The Panthers are kind of locked into Bryce and all I'm saying is that it's not the worst situation.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:50
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Doltos posted:I want to be clear I thought Stroud was way better than Young in pretty much every facet coming into the draft. I don't think Young is infallible but he's not nearly as bad as people are making him out to be. He appears to have rookie jitters that a lot of QB's have. I also think we live in a zero sum world where people understandably want their QB to instantly be RG3 or Herbert quality in their rookie years. The Panthers are kind of locked into Bryce and all I'm saying is that it's not the worst situation. I watched almost every snap Rosen played in Arizona and he was worse than Young. Maybe don't sell the QB for pennies on the dollar because he couldn't make the 2023 Panthers offense move. Alternatively: Here lies Bryce, he died Young
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Jan 9, 2024 19:52
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#2 is the only one where he arguably throws over his own online lol
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Jan 9, 2024 19:54
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What do you want from him? This is such an obtuse argument it's driving me nuts. You're faulting him for staying in the pocket and throwing it but not being close enough to his Oline when he does it?
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Jan 9, 2024 19:57
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Doltos posted:Flacco is currently leading a team to the playoffs as a 38 year old, won a super bowl, and had insane talent while doing it. Geno and Tannehill are both starters and both featured good seasons. The post is wrong. It's also disingenuous to leave off Stafford, Young, Allen, and Manning in that list because it doesn't fit the narrative you want. No one is leaving those guys off the list tho. You think it's an extensive list of guys who overcame awful rookie seasons to become above average starters when it's just not true.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:58
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Doltos posted:
i mean yeah if you throw the ball more than almost anyone in the nfl, you're going to have some good looking ones. But that's about it as far as highlights go. Also one of those is an underthrown desperation "heave" to adam thielen that he bails out, one is about 24 yards long, and another is posted twice and is the throw from the Chicago game that I said was his best of the year. Also this is about 15% of his total yards. For every one of those, there's five of him throwing off one foot three yards over someone's head. At the end of the day, just looking at his total offensive production, he was bottom of the league in average, ypa, a/ya, touchdowns, for a reason. There's a bunch of bad stuff around him, but Chuba and Thielen (amazingly) both had fine seasons.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:58
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wandler20 posted:No one is leaving those guys off the list tho. You think it's an extensive list of guys who overcame awful rookie seasons to become above average starters when it's just not true. You left them off the list to fit your argument, you specifically mentioned no one who goes outside your claims. The list is pretty extensive I don't know what more you want other than a list of busts. FizFashizzle posted:i mean yeah if you throw the ball more than almost anyone in the nfl, you're going to have some good looking ones. But that's about it as far as highlights go. Also one of those is an underthrown desperation "heave" to adam thielen that he bails out, one is about 24 yards long, and another is posted twice and is the throw from the Chicago game that I said was his best of the year. Also this is about 15% of his total yards. Those were highlights of his intermediate and deep passes. I don't know why we're faulting a WCO QB for not having a ton of them. The one I linked twice is another highlight I messed up copy pasting but I'd have to rewatch everything to find it again. FizFashizzle posted:For every one of those, there's five of him throwing off one foot three yards over someone's head. At the end of the day, just looking at his total offensive production, he was bottom of the league in average, ypa, a/ya, touchdowns, for a reason. There's a bunch of bad stuff around him, but Chuba and Thielen (amazingly) both had fine seasons. Yeah again I'm not disagreeing that he had a mediocre to bad season production wise. I'd just give an excuse to a rookie who's number 1 receiver is Thielen and who took as many sacks as Sam Howell behind a garbage oline.
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Jan 9, 2024 20:03
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YOLOsubmarine posted:2009 QB stats are actually pretty comparable to 2023 stats. In 2009 Brees led the league with 34 TDs vs Dak’s 36. Schaub had 4770 yards vs 4624 for Tua. And that’s with the 2023 seasons including an extra game. It was probably a little harder to play QB this year than in 2009. They're not comparable. You just took the top performers from each year and arbitrarily chose just two of their numbers. Interceptions for the median quarterback were way higher back then and completion percentage way lower. Matthew Stafford's rookie stat line was not nearly as ghastly by 2009 standards as it is by 2023 standards.
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Jan 9, 2024 20:04
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Doltos posted:You left them off the list to fit your argument, you specifically mentioned no one who goes outside your claims. The list is pretty extensive I don't know what more you want other than a list of busts. I left them off my list because I agreed with you that they belonged. You have a list of what, 11 guys dating back to loving Terry Bradshaw? Come on.
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Jan 9, 2024 20:06
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Imagine Bryce playing football in 1999. Doltos posted:
Panthers had some injuries and insane regression by Ickey, but their offensive line in the 2nd half of the season was much improved. It was posted on Carolina huddle that BY is league average in time to throw in the pocket from some advanced stat site or another. He was seeing ghosts by the end of the season. Early season had a lot of him being chased down from behind as he slowly strolled to his right. I think it as Kalli that said watching defenders chase him down from behind was like the serial killer stalking a person in a slasher movie.
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Jan 9, 2024 20:07
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wandler20 posted:I left them off my list because I agreed with you that they belonged. You have a list of what, 11 guys dating back to loving Terry Bradshaw? Come on. Because I'm arguing on the internet and I grabbed the stat leaders of the current season and then thought of some names before then. People put so much burden of proof on me but never bring up their own before making a statement. It gets pretty frustrating.
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Jan 9, 2024 20:09
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Come back to this in three years but Bryce is going to be an all time bust and that’s not even accounting for Stroud at #2, book it.
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Jan 9, 2024 20:15
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I mean if he’s an all time bust he won’t survive past next year
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Jan 9, 2024 20:19
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All time bust Zach Wilson was still a starter by year 3
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Jan 9, 2024 20:20
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Doltos posted:Because I'm arguing on the internet and I grabbed the stat leaders of the current season and then thought of some names before then. People put so much burden of proof on me but never bring up their own before making a statement. It gets pretty frustrating. Hey now I feel that's unfair to me - I more than brought up some valid points.
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Jan 9, 2024 20:20
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