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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I don't think you know anything about this. Literally none of the Arab world supports them. Several Arab countries were involved in the bombing tonight and multiple Arab countries have been involved in fighting them for the past decade. I would say the people of the Arab world do, but then, many of their governments are western back dictatorships.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:05
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selec posted:I gotta be real I don’t think this stops the Houthis. You can’t bomb a group like this into submission. It’s gonna take boots on the ground. So how much footage of dead Yemeni kids is the White House willing to generate in an election year? Feels like this only escalates and doesn’t have a meaningful path to actually stopping the conflict from any angle. I dont think they will. they will do some spec ops poo poo and maybe other strikes but i doubt they will do full boots on the ground.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:05
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The most recent one was a Norwegian ship hauling oil leaving Norway for Canada. …why is a ship going from Norway to Canada passing through the Suez Canal? Or did they sail all the way up into the North Atlantic to hit them?
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Jan 12, 2024 03:07
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Nucleic Acids posted:I would say the people of the Arab world do, but then, many of their governments are western back dictatorships. Did you poll the Arab world in the last 40 minutes?
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Jan 12, 2024 03:07
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Nucleic Acids posted:And that is meant to put pressure on the west to bring Israel to heel. selec posted:I gotta be real I don’t think this stops the Houthis. You can’t bomb a group like this into submission. It’s gonna take boots on the ground. I mean, I feel like this goes back to the "is the US military good at doing military stuff?" discussion from a couple of weeks ago: yes, they are.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:07
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Trazz posted:If Trump is the GOP nominee then they lose  what’s the basis for your assertion? Anything based in any sort of evidence or is this just wishful thinking?Forgive the snark but all the polling has been pointing to a Trump victory for some time now, hence my confusion. Hell, this is the current electoral map:  So please share with the rest of us what you are seeing that contradicts the available evidence we have. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 12, 2024 03:08
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Nucleic Acids posted:And that is meant to put pressure on the west to bring Israel to heel. Literally how?
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Jan 12, 2024 03:09
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I’m only seeing Bahrain listed in terms of Arab states that supported the strike. Are there any others noted somewhere? Edit: Yeah the NYT calls out specifically that Bahrain is the only gulf state that participated. That seems like a strike against the notion that this is a pariah nation that the entire region loathes. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/11/us/politics/us-houthi-missile-strikes.html selec fucked around with this message at 03:12 on Jan 12, 2024 |
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Jan 12, 2024 03:09
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haveblue posted:…why is a ship going from Norway to Canada passing through the Suez Canal? It was a Norwegian ship, but apparently not leaving from Norway. The two most recent ones were a Swiss ship owned by MSC and a Norwegian ship hauling oil owned by Equinor ASA.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:10
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Misunderstood posted:I mean, I feel like this goes back to the "is the US military good at doing military stuff?" discussion from a couple of weeks ago: yes, they are. Your definition of “military stuff” must not include winning wars, given the results of our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:12
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The Top G posted:So please share with the rest of us what you are seeing that contradicts the available evidence we have. Here are some of the factors that might lead one to the conclusion Trazz reached: - Donald Trump is going to be facing prosecution for crimes. Voters have expressed that they will be less likely to support Trump if he is convicted, and the evidence against him is very strong. - These trials will be covered heavily in the news, and contain tons of evidence of his crimes, and also he has an established pattern of acting like a little pissbaby in court. - Donald Trump ran for President against Joe Biden once, and lost. - Inflation has been dropping, and inflation is one of Biden's largest political problems. - The electoral terrain has been very good for Democrats during Biden's first term, with both a surprisingly good midterm performance and dominance in special elections. Just for starters.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:13
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GlyphGryph posted:Literally how? Enflicting enough economic damage for the costs to outweigh the benefits of allowing Israel to continue. Although, as I said, I guess I should have seen the west acting to save Israel coming.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:15
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The Top G posted:Your definition of “military stuff” must not include winning wars, given the results of our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Nucleic Acids posted:Enflicting enough economic damage for the costs to outweigh the benefits of allowing Israel to continue. Although, as I said, I guess I should have seen the west acting to save Israel coming.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:17
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selec posted:I’m only seeing Bahrain listed in terms of Arab states that supported the strike. Are there any others noted somewhere? Are you familiar with the houthi rebel movement? They are not a nation. They are a Shia militia that every Sunni government in the region and 2/3 of Yemen hates. Several of those countries have actively been involved in bombing and conflict with them in the last 10 years. The only countries that are currently supporting them are Iran, Russia, and North Korea - none of which are Arab countries in the region. Syria was the only Arab country in the region that ever supported them and they disavowed them about two years ago.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:17
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The Top G posted:
Joe Biden is definitely going to lose Michigan at the very least.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:22
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Nucleic Acids posted:Joe Biden is definitely going to lose Michigan at the very least. e: Okay obviously that's overly dismissive, but really, it's 260k people, not all of whom are voters, and not all of whom voted for democrats in the first place, and the election is in 10 months. To say the election is lost over this is just telling yourself a story you want to believe. Sorry, America does not "punish" its politicians for the things you want it to.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:25
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Are you familiar with the houthi rebel movement? They are not a nation. They are a Shia militia that every Sunni government in the region and 2/3 of Yemen hates. Several of those countries have actively been involved in bombing and conflict with them in the last 10 years. Yeah I’m familiar with all that. So why do you think only Bahrain signed on for this attack? My sense is that other gulf states think it’s not worth the risk of popular resentment, along with the two big players, KSA and Iran not wanting to harm the deal they got before it’s even a year old, which then cascades down to their client states and allies.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:26
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Okay folks! Ships have: Flag States- these are the countries whose laws they operate under. If we say a vessel is Norwegian that means it’s flagged Norwegian. Owners: the nationality of the owners does not have to match the flag state, a vessel might have partial owners from many different countries Charters: these folks pay to use the vessel under several different types of contact from a single voyage it to long term. This again could be be folks from a different country than the flag state or owners. Operators or management company: physically operating the vessel on behalf of another party (owners or charters) could be yet again based in another country Vessel crew: could be mixed nationality and again not originating from the flag state generally Filipino, Eastern European (UKR/RUS) and Chinese (either TWN or HKG) Cargo owners: the poo poo the boat is moving, again could be owners anywhere in the world. If you see “ZIM” that’s Israeli based shipping line, i think they only charter and don’t own since the pandemic.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:26
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Misunderstood posted:I don't know where this goon conception that Michigan is 85% composed of Arabs came from. It turns out that his margins there were narrow enough in 2020 that if just enough stay home Trump will etch out a victory.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:26
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Main Paineframe posted:When you narrow it down to just merit-based aid, yes, rich people get more of that. But there's also need-based aid, which evens the odds quite a bit. And Table 4.2 shows that white students are more likely to receive need-based institutional aid than black or Hispanic students are, and that they receive comparable amounts. And higher-income students receive the least need-based aid. Though the income group that's most likely to get some is the second quartile (25-50%), not the first quartile (<25%)...which is exactly what I'd expect if aid was predominantly going to the poor members of a group whose overall wealth is well above that of other groups. Sure, but a significant amount of students from high-income families also receive a significant amount of need-based aid. Almost as many students from the upper middle 25 percent receive need-based aid as students from the lowest 25 percent, and they even get more on average! I agree that white people are the group whose overall wealth is well above that of other groups, but that also means the upper 50 percent is predominantly white, and thus this top 50 percent makes up a good portion of the total amount of aid that goes to white people. In other words, a significant portion of aid going to white people is going to these higher-income groups, and not the poor white families. However, if you are questioning why those higher-income groups are even getting 'need-based' aid, I think that's a valid question. Additionally, according to the latest results in Table 4.2, the difference between white and black students is 0.3% and 1.4% between white and Hispanic students. I really don't think those differences can lead to a conclusion that aid is 'predominantly' going to white people. In fact, Asian students and biracial students are more likely to receive need-based aid than white people (by good amounts to, 2% and 2.5% respectively), and Asian students receive almost double the aid on average compared to everyone else. Unless enforcing strict racial quotas, some differences in aid granted between races are to be expected, and I don't think the differences are so big they scream institutional racism (on this specific issue). Main Paineframe posted:Do you feel excluded by Hanukkah? Do you feel excluded by St Patrick's Day? You're basically arguing that minority cultures shouldn't have their own cultural expressions because it makes the majority cultures (who've set the entire nationwide holiday calendar based on their own cultural holidays) feel special anymore. Which, of course, is nonsense. As for your comment about "white, straight Americans", I kind of feel like maybe you misunderstood what I said? There is no such thing as "white culture", and never was - but that doesn't mean light-skinned people don't have cultures or cultural practices of their own! It kind of seems like you're missing something important: when a German person moves to America, they're not just "an American" or "a white person", they're a German-American. You look at people with light skin and see "white people", when you should be seeing Anglo-Americans and German-Americans and French-Americans and Italian-Americans and Irish-Americans and so many others. Even if they do choose to shed that identity and assimilate into general American culture, general American culture is still a full culture by itself. It just doesn't feel special and unique, because not only is it the overwhelming majority culture here in the US, but the US has such overwhelming cultural influence that we've exported our cultural practices all over the world. I am not saying minority cultures should not have their own expressions, I made that pretty clear a few posts ago. I'm saying white people and anyone else who feels like they cannot connect to their (parents') heritage need to be able to connect to social fabrics that are shared on a state-wide and national level (that is also shared with those minority cultures), but that are currently missing. Why obey the laws of a state you don't feel a connection to? Why vote to improve the lives of people that you don't feel a connection to and who also don't feel a connection to you? You and I may be able to see why it's a good or decent idea to do these things regardless, but plenty of people feel differently, as is apparent from pretty much everything that is going on right now. The identity crisis of children of immigrants is a pretty well-documented phenomenon and I am not sure why you're mentioning groups like 'German-Americans' and 'Irish-Americans' as if they are somehow immune to it. If a German-American goes back to Germany, they won't be considered German. If an Irish-American goes back to Ireland, they won't be considered Irish. Even within the US, they will have trouble clearly identifying the culture their ancestors brought with them. I also do believe there is no real American culture for them to connect to. You argue that American culture exists but that it doesn't feel unique or special because it's the predominant culture in the US. I don't think anyone in England would argue that British culture doesn't feel special and unique because it's the predominant culture in England, even today when they have imported many cultural practices from the US. Similarly, an Italian person would never say something like that about Italian culture. You also say the culture doesn't feel unique or special because it's been exported worldwide. If an American goes to either of the countries I mentioned, they will most definitely still be able to tell they are taking part in a culture that feels unique and different from his own, even when those cultures imported some of his cultural practices. In fact, he'll be able to clearly describe those cultures, what makes them unique and special, how they still carry their cultural history forward, etc. If someone visits the US they will also be able to tell they're in a different culture, but they won't be able to describe it to the same extent. Hell, think about Mexican culture, which has a very strong and clear presence in some parts of the US. How does 'American culture' even begin to compare to that? As an aside, this is no longer just an American issue, we are starting to see the same issue arise in Europe too now after decades of migration. Citizens are slowly losing touch with national identities, partly because of globalization, and partly because some (children of) immigrants identify more strongly with their religion than with the cultural identity of the country they live in, and make a conscious choice not to engage or connect with that cultural identity. Back in the day, people still shared a strong identity through their religion, language, etc. Now, with English being a worldwide language and religion being less prominent in Europe, we have to find a new social fabric that can bind us. In the US, we still see religion and political parties serving as a social fabric that people gravitate towards. However, neither of these are strong enough for an entire nation to connect to, and, to be honest, identifying with either has historically led to terrible things due to their inherent discriminatory nature, a strong cultural identity may serve as a better alternative. Main Paineframe posted:I'm saying that the "white, working-class man in 2023 who sees no future ahead of him for himself or his family, is economically disadvantaged, and receives no support from his environment or society as a whole" is largely a myth, one that's promoted by white supremacists in defense of institutional racism. Poor white people receive tons of support from their environment and society. They just don't realize it because it's so utterly natural for them to receive that support that they don't even realize that support isn't available to everyone. Institutional racism didn't exclusively benefit rich white people. After all, the entire point of white supremacy was that even the worst-off white people would still be better off than most black people, and even today there are still substantial differences between what it's like to be a poor white guy and what it's like to be a poor black guy. The racial wealth gap doesn't just mean "there's more poor black people than poor white people" or "on average, white people have more money than rich people" - the experience of being poor itself also changes by race, as poor white people still have access to many opportunities unavailable to poor black people, while poor black people face a number of obstacles that even the poorest white people will never face. You're focusing again on the differences between the experiences of two different groups of people and using that to dismiss the experiences and complaints of one group as a myth. If a white person complains, that doesn't matter because they don't realize that other people have it much worse. I am not denying that others have it much worse, but why does that mean the white person has no right to complain or get the help he needs? Of course, he should not be the only one receiving that help, everyone should, regardless of skin color, but that does include taking complaints and needs serious even if they come from a less-disadvantaged group. If the solution to the racial wealth gap is to focus only on the most disadvantaged group, then there will be an inevitable counter-reaction by the less-disadvantaged group that is dismissed because they are less-disadvantaged. That's when peddlers of lies come to feed on the dissatisfaction that follows, and we get figures like Trump, Tate, and far-right parties, who only further the white supremacist cause. By disadvantaging a certain group because of historical wrongs, everyone will be worse off in the long run.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:30
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Nucleic Acids posted:It turns out that his margins there were narrow enough in 2020 that if just enough stay home Trump will etch out a victory. All of the polls of Michigan also show Trump (and even Haley) beating Biden in Michigan: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/ Biden's numbers in Michigan are dogshit, and it's not just because he's pissing off Arab voters with his support of genocide.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:30
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selec posted:Yeah I’m familiar with all that. So why do you think only Bahrain signed on for this attack? I think all of that is correct*. That is why everyone has been holding off for three months before they finally did this. Nobody wants to draw Iran into a bigger regional conflict. But, I was correcting the fact that the houthi do not have any support among the Arab states. Just because a country wasn't actively involved in bombing them doesn't mean that they support them. *Edit: Except for the popular resentment part. There is not widespread popular support among the Sunni populations for a foreign Shia militia that thinks all Sunni are apostates. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 03:40 on Jan 12, 2024 |
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Jan 12, 2024 03:32
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The Top G posted:
Trump(and the GOP as a whole) have only gotten crazier and more radicalized after Trump lost They attempted a coup, overturned RvW, and have overall quadrupled-down on being IRL internet trolls Overturning RvW means that the GOP is gonna lose this year no matter who the nominee is, especially since they're all very vocally proud of doing it Also, Trump isn't winning Nevada or Georgia lol Or Arizona for that matter either
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Jan 12, 2024 03:32
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The Top G posted:
I keep seeing these polls referenced. Yes, they're bad, but they probably don't matter yet. Until around mid April or May (~200 days from the election), they have as much predictive power as a coin flip. Meaning, zero. Linearly afterwards, they get slightly more predictive every month leading up to the election. Meanwhile, Republicans have lost pretty much every election since Trump got elected, and for our purposes I am considering their severe midterm underperformance during the biggest inflation of our lifetimes to be a big fat loss. (You can tell by the conservative meltdown on midterm election night.) Before you bring up Palestine, 1. We care but most people don't, and 2. Democrats won in November a full month into the Israeli bombing campaign. Republicans lost big in the special elections last year and Democrats swung +11 on average. Special elections are historically a good predictor of the presidential election results as well as the midterm results, especially when there's such a large spread between the two parties. Trump is a convicted sexual abuser. He may very well get convicted of felonies this year. At the very least, his crimes will be televised. Biden is not in campaign mode and the ads will absolutely swamp the country in a few months when people start paying attention. Independents don't give a drat about Trump's excuses and chants about witch hunts. Edit: any many states will have abortion questions on the ballot. It's looking bad for Republicans. It is looking very, very, very bad for Trump and he literally can't do anything about it. small butter fucked around with this message at 03:41 on Jan 12, 2024 |
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Jan 12, 2024 03:36
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I think all of that is correct. That is why everyone has been holding off for three months before they finally did this. Nobody wants to draw Iran into a bigger regional conflict. Man you gotta be utterly ignorant of how the Arab world has been reacting to Israel's genocide to think that Ansarallah had no support among them
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Jan 12, 2024 03:39
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B B posted:All of the polls of Michigan also show Trump (and even Haley) beating Biden in Michigan: To be clear, national polls (well, at least the Fox News poll from November) showed Trump beating every Democrat, including Newsom, with only Manchin getting to -2 vs Trump (everyone else was doing even worse). This showed a general Democrat problem in the month and year in which Democrats were dominating, nothing specific to Biden.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:39
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small butter posted:I keep seeing these polls referenced. Yes, they're bad, but they probably don't matter yet. The Democrats won those special elections because, before a special election, voters pay closer attention. And there is a definite trend over the last eight years that the closer a voter is paying attention, the more likely it is they'll be disgusted by the GOP.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:39
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A big flaming stink posted:Man you gotta be utterly ignorant of how the Arab world has been reacting to Israel's genocide to think that Ansarallah had no support among them Literally 0 Arab states currently support them. Several of them have been actively bombing them for the last 10 years. Syria is the only Arab state to ever support them in any way and they have since disavowed them.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:43
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Misunderstood posted:Yeah, and the thing is, the polling in those special elections was pretty good. Which means that the problem with the polls right now isn't that they're inaccurate as much as it's just that the information is useless. Who people would vote for for President on January 11, 2024 doesn't matter, at all. You might as well ask people who's going to win the 2045 World Series. It would be very odd to have an election before a campaign, wouldn't it? Some polls were absolutely terrible, though. WI Supreme Court - the Democrat won by 10 when it was supposed to be within +1. That was a very high profile race, too. (Yes, people will vote D for WI Supreme Court and leave it blank for Biden. Come on.)
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Jan 12, 2024 03:43
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I am curious why Biden has been polling so badly in Michigan in particular.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:45
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Eric Cantonese posted:I am curious why Biden has been polling so badly in Michigan. Most recent polls there have him doing especially badly with white people with no college degree (who make up a disproportionate part of the Michigan electorate) and some chunks of Democratic voters say they are not sure or undecided. Most of those Democrats are going to come back. It's not clear if he can improve dramatically with white voters with no college degree. They have been trending Republican for years and are especially supportive of Trump (which is why Trump sort of shook up the electoral map by losing places like Georgia and Arizona, but doing disproportionately well in places with lots of white people with no degree like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania).
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Jan 12, 2024 03:49
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Eric Cantonese posted:I am curious why Biden has been polling so badly in Michigan in particular. Has the UAW endorsed Biden since he joined the picket line? That wouldn't be the sole reason, but it could certainly have an impact.
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Jan 12, 2024 03:51
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Misunderstood posted:The Democrats won those special elections because, before a special election, voters pay closer attention. And there is a definite trend over the last eight years that the closer a voter is paying attention, the more likely it is they'll be disgusted by the GOP. If the voters pay close attention they may be disgusted by the Democrats support of a now ICJ condemned genocide, so it's not like paying attention to the facts is strictly a win for Democrats.
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Jan 12, 2024 04:01
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Mischievous Mink posted:If the voters pay close attention they may be disgusted by the Democrats support of a now ICJ condemned genocide, so it's not like paying attention to the facts is strictly a win for Democrats. Probably not a great example because current polling shows that only about 31% of Americans think we are doing too much to help Israel and nearly 7 out of 10 think it is "about right" or not enough. And this is a new low for public opinion of Israel in America.
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Jan 12, 2024 04:04
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Mischievous Mink posted:If the voters pay close attention they may be disgusted by the Democrats support of a now ICJ condemned genocide, so it's not like paying attention to the facts is strictly a win for Democrats. As much as "supporting genocide" plays against Biden with leftists, I can't reiterate enough how few fucks most people give about foreign policy and wars not involving the US.
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Jan 12, 2024 04:05
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The Top G posted:
Looking at this map, I highly doubt Nevada is going GOP, regardless of what non-predictive polls this far out say. But taking everything else at face value, this puts Dems at 261 votes with 42 up in the air; so of the three battleground states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Biden only needs to win one of these to win. I think considering how Georgia has basically consistently elected Dem for President and Dem for Senate in every election since 2020, and Arizona has been trending blue recently this would suggest that Bidens odds are actually pretty great looking at it critically. Nucleic Acids posted:The Houthis were throwing the concept of liberal humanitarian intervention back in the west's face, and these strikes show once again that we don't actually believe what we say we do. This has nothing to do with the question I asked and has nothing to do with your original claim; how does this effect the US election?
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Jan 12, 2024 04:07
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small butter posted:As much as "supporting genocide" plays against Biden with leftists, I can't reiterate enough how few fucks most people give about foreign policy and wars not involving the US. so I guess this is some order hypothetical war you’re talking about?
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Jan 12, 2024 04:21
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Raenir Salazar posted:This has nothing to do with the question I asked and has nothing to do with your original claim; how does this effect the US election? It’s yet another message to Arab and Muslim Americans that Joe Biden does not give a gently caress about them.
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Jan 12, 2024 04:22
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Nucleic Acids posted:It’s yet another message to Arab and Muslim Americans that Joe Biden does not give a gently caress about them. My dude, the average American Muslim (who is a Sunni that was born in this country, has never left America, and is of African-American or Southeast Asian descent) does not consider themselves affiliated with a Shia militia in Yemen or support higher inflation to show support for them. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 04:33 on Jan 12, 2024 |
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Jan 12, 2024 04:27
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Probably not a great example because current polling shows that only about 31% of Americans think we are doing too much to help Israel and nearly 7 out of 10 think it is "about right" or not enough. And this is a new low for public opinion of Israel in America. Eh, this Gallup poll from a week ago has it at 36% for "too much": https://news.gallup.com/poll/548084/americans-divided-involvement-middle-east.aspx And more importantly for Biden, 40% of both Dems and Independents feel this way. And given Americans' love of the status quo "yeah this seems about right", I would say these aren't particularly great in terms of reflecting a massive amount of support for Biden's position. You can look at basically any poll for anything and "about right" will end up in the 30-40% range unless something seriously noteworthy has happened. As an example, it took until Roe vs. Wade for Democrats to think the makeup of the Supreme Court was "about right" to fall below 20%. Also people really don't like Netanyahu here either, apparently
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Jan 12, 2024 04:30
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