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KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:lil ronny isn’t dropping out till late in the game because of his fragile ego, it’s gonna be tup. The current state of things is that every candidate has their own billionaire or group of billionaires who funds them. So regardless of any results, the only thing that can make them drop out is either shame or their sugar daddy pulling the plug. Since Meatball doesn't have any shame in his programing, he's in it until the people behind U-Line shipping and packing pull the plug.
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Jan 15, 2024 23:08
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GlobalMegaCorp posted:Trump is obv going to win, but I think the only case going forward where he might have the slightest challenge is if he does sub 45 today and Haley manages to somehow over perform and hit better than 25. Meatball Rob then drops before NH and she squeezes out a victory there. I think if the aura of inevitable trump can be pierced she might have an actual shot since I think a fair amount of Trumps support is just resigned to him winning. She would still be a heavy underdog though. I think Haley is being massively overrepresented. She is still 13 points behind Trump in NH and she is going to loose hard to him in SC, the state where she was Governor. After that, why would you bother backing a candidate that can't even carry her on state.
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Jan 15, 2024 23:16
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Nikki will continue to top Ron from coast to coast until he can't take anymore
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Jan 15, 2024 23:18
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Gyges posted:The current state of things is that every candidate has their own billionaire or group of billionaires who funds them. So regardless of any results, the only thing that can make them drop out is either shame or their sugar daddy pulling the plug. Since Meatball doesn't have any shame in his programing, he's in it until the people behind U-Line shipping and packing pull the plug. this. i still think he will go as long as possible because the second he stops, he has to go back home and realize that he hosed up the state bad enough that a bunch of GOP are grumbling and the chuds view him as a traitor.
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Jan 15, 2024 23:20
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Mappo posted:I think Haley is being massively overrepresented. She is still 13 points behind Trump in NH and she is going to loose hard to him in SC, the state where she was Governor. After that, why would you bother backing a candidate that can't even carry her on state. The theory is that if she picks up Christie’s 9% in NH then it’s a lot closer.
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Jan 15, 2024 23:20
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Mappo posted:I think Haley is being massively overrepresented. She is still 13 points behind Trump in NH and she is going to loose hard to him in SC, the state where she was Governor. After that, why would you bother backing a candidate that can't even carry her on state. How long ago was Haley governor? It feels like a long time
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Jan 15, 2024 23:44
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Mappo posted:I think Haley is being massively overrepresented. She is still 13 points behind Trump in NH and she is going to loose hard to him in SC, the state where she was Governor. After that, why would you bother backing a candidate that can't even carry her on state. I don’t think she’s going to win. I’d give her maybe a 5% - 10% shot? Better than Desantis who doesn’t even have a fantasy path going forward
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Jan 16, 2024 00:04
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GlobalMegaCorp posted:I don’t think she’s going to win. I’d give her maybe a 5% - 10% shot? Better than Desantis who doesn’t even have a fantasy path going forward Incidentally her chances would be a lot better if not for DeSantis getting more or less anointed Trump's sole challenger ahead of the primary. Even if his campaign has been a disaster he'll still eat up a lot of Not Trump votes by default until he drops out.
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Jan 16, 2024 00:17
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Mappo posted:I think Haley is being massively overrepresented. She is still 13 points behind Trump in NH and she is going to loose hard to him in SC, the state where she was Governor. After that, why would you bother backing a candidate that can't even carry her on state. Voters don't care about carrying your own state. They care if you win the last primary and if you have some sort of actual path to victory. Winning you own state is something that mattered in the old days when a wide array of rich people were backing candidates. Now it's all sugar daddy billionaires and common man rubes.
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Jan 16, 2024 00:22
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If every not-Trump except Haley dropped out and consolidated behind her, maybe she'd have a chance. But I doubt this will happen before it's too late, DeSantis is firmly in sunk cost fallacy mode.
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Jan 16, 2024 00:30
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:How long ago was Haley governor? It feels like a long time In 2011 and she stepped down in 2017 to be Trump's Ambassador to the UN. During her time as Governor she did absolutely nothing, besides removing the confederate flag from the capital grounds and thats not going to help her in the primary. No one in the state is going to vote for her, especially when they could vote for Trump. At least DeSantis has some political wins behind him and a agenda, as horrible as those are. Nikki Haley is an empty suit with nothing to back her up. She wouldn't have even been Governor if it was for Sarah Palin endorsing her in a field of extremely corrupt and unlikeable candidates.
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Jan 16, 2024 00:48
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CNN just shared some entrance poll results from the Iowa caucuses:  
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Jan 16, 2024 01:48
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Assuming that anyone who considers themselves MAGA would almost certainly vote for Trump, 53% seems reasonable. That's probably the big one, whether or not he can top 50%.
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Jan 16, 2024 01:52
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Phlegmish posted:Assuming that anyone who considers themselves MAGA would almost certainly vote for Trump, 53% seems reasonable. That's probably the big one, whether or not he can top 50%. I think pretty much every Vivek voter would describe themselves that way, but it probably is still enough for Trump to get 50%.
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Jan 16, 2024 01:53
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Trump is gonna hit 60% and cause both Nikki and Rob to drop out overnight lol
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Jan 16, 2024 02:00
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Now that the caucus has officially started, CNN has posted the full entrance poll results: https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/exit-polls/iowa/republican-caucus/0  Edit: Civilized Fishbot posted:I think pretty much every Vivek voter would describe themselves that way, but it probably is still enough for Trump to get 50%. Here's the breakdown for how these people voted according to the entrance poll, by the way: 
B B fucked around with this message at 02:08 on Jan 16, 2024 |
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Jan 16, 2024 02:03
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GlobalMegaCorp posted:Trump is gonna hit 60% and cause both Nikki and Rob to drop out overnight lol rob wont drop out. if he drops out then he will have to go back to florida and hope the party doesnt knife him because trump demands it OR because he pissed away the money.
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Jan 16, 2024 02:11
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 Hutchinson not even registering
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Jan 16, 2024 02:11
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B B posted:Here's the breakdown for how these people voted according to the entrance poll, by the way: I was way off but I guess it makes sense since both DeSantis and Ramaswamy present themselves as off-brand Trump
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Jan 16, 2024 02:15
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It's going to be hilarious when Ron is forced back to FL and he falls back in line behind Trump for the general election, only to keep getting treated like poo poo by him. Impressive how much he's managed to humiliate himself in such a small amount of time.
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Jan 16, 2024 02:15
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Queering Wheel posted:
No, that is a negative percent.
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Jan 16, 2024 02:16
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To be fair, it only applies to the pêople who consider themselves MAGA, but I doubt the overall percentage is much higher
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Jan 16, 2024 02:20
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GlobalMegaCorp posted:Trump is gonna hit 60% and cause both Nikki and Rob to drop out overnight lol Pudding Fingers and Lost Cause won't drop out until their billionaire backers stop writing checks. They're both in it for the Trump stops running Powerball.
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Jan 16, 2024 02:23
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To the shock of no one: Here's NYTimes's current estimate of the final vote:  Edit: https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1747070940444319982 
B B fucked around with this message at 02:44 on Jan 16, 2024 |
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Jan 16, 2024 02:38
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Yup. Extremely preliminary results from the Iowa GOP site, but the final percentages will probably be similar. Only thing up in the air is Haley vs. DeSantis. e: Asa Hutchinson 1 vote lol
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Jan 16, 2024 02:47
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Gyges posted:Pudding Fingers and Lost Cause won't drop out until their billionaire backers stop writing checks. They're both in it for the Trump stops running Powerball. I assume you mean the Trump's heart stops beating Powerball.
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Jan 16, 2024 02:48
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Those NYTimes percentages with +/- 10% errors sure are something.
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Jan 16, 2024 02:52
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smackfu posted:Those NYTimes percentages with +/- 10% errors sure are something. It means Asa Hutchinson may actually have -9% of the vote, which seems more likely
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Jan 16, 2024 03:24
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Caros posted:I assume you mean the Trump's heart stops beating Powerball. Fleeing the country, coma, and sudden brain infraction with a side effect of making him realize he's a piece of poo poo and feels the need to atone, are also technically above zero odds.
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Jan 16, 2024 03:35
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The only race I care about now
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Jan 16, 2024 03:43
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Bigger chunk of results now in: Hutchinson at 0.1%, much better than the projected -9%, and also massively outperforming Christie
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Jan 16, 2024 03:49
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Phlegmish posted:Bigger chunk of results now in: Vivek Vivek, it rhymes with 7.8‰, and soon to drop for a VP nod he probably won't get. Catchy.
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Jan 16, 2024 04:28
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Honestly surprised that DeSantis and Haley are doing so well and Trump is currently being held to just 51%. I wonder if the very low turnout and sense of inevitability about Trump had an impact.
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Jan 16, 2024 04:28
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Low enthusiasm (sounds familiar since 2020/2022), trouble winning with anyone remotely moderate (sounds familiar since 2020/2022)
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Jan 16, 2024 04:33
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I thought Trump would be scoring better than this. Yes, no individual competitor is anywhere near his vote, but what really matters is how many people are “not Trump/wouldn’t show up to vote for Trump in the general election”.
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Jan 16, 2024 05:15
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edit: whoops, wrong thread! my bad.
Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 05:24 on Jan 16, 2024 |
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Jan 16, 2024 05:16
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Iowa claims the first primary casualty. Vivek's out. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/vivek-ramaswamy-ends-2024-campaign-after-disappointing-iowa/story?id=106400273 quote:Vivek Ramaswamy ends 2024 campaign after disappointing in Iowa
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Jan 16, 2024 05:25
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The Artificial Kid posted:I thought Trump would be scoring better than this. Yes, no individual competitor is anywhere near his vote, but what really matters is how many people are “not Trump/wouldn’t show up to vote for Trump in the general election”. It's going to be pretty clear pretty fast that there isn't much enthusiasm right now for the GOP race and they aren't going to be making money off this like they desperately need to be- since they are at about 20% of their fundraising at the same time in 2020.
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Jan 16, 2024 05:27
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Young Freud posted:Iowa claims the first primary casualty. Vivek's out. He endorsed Donald Trump as well.
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Jan 16, 2024 05:27
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The most boring of outcomes. Trump ahead but not so ahead that it gives us any new insights. De Santis second which will keep him in the race. Haley third but close enough to second that she’ll try to keep her momentum dreams alive.
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Jan 16, 2024 05:28
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