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Doltos posted:All positions bust at a high rate, draft good players high Gronk and Kelce also benefit from having 2 of the best QBs every to play. Maybe Pitts just needs a hall of fame QB to matter. TE is not a premium position you spend high draft capital on. Hell, Gronk and Kelce weren't even first rounders.
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Jan 18, 2024 00:24
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wandler20 posted:Gronk and Kelce also benefit from having 2 of the best QBs every to play. Maybe Pitts just needs a hall of fame QB to matter. Great QBs need great players to put up great numbers. Notice how Brady's stats always spiked when he got new great WRs and Rob Gronkowski himself. 2007 - Moss, 2010 - Gronkowski - 2020 - Evans/Godwin/Gronk unretired. TE is also a position that are either used or unused by QBs. Stafford is a great QB but he rarely throws to his TEs over his WRs. On the other hand Rivers and Romo made entire careers dumping off to their TEs over 30% of the time. TE is absolutely a premium position you spend high draft capital on because that's the point of high draft capital. Goons have this weird obsession with only taking certain positions in the top 10 ignoring all the times they bust or are reaches or that they don't turn a team around. Then they link redrafts taking those same 'non premium' positions high because they had great careers. You wouldn't spend a top 25 pick on Rob Gronkowski in the 2010 draft? You'd really fault a team for taking him over Tyson Alualu? Imagine how bad the draft would be if teams only took OT/DE/WR/QB in the top 10. How many top teams would suddenly have great players dropping to them just because they aren't a 'premium' position?
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Jan 18, 2024 00:38
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Yes, I would take a guaranteed hall of fame player in the top 10. The problem is, nothing is guaranteed. I'd rather swing for a WR or QB or CB or OT or Pass rusher waaaay before id swing for a TE. Sure be cool if we had a top 5 hall of fame TE for this discussion instead of using mid round picks.
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Jan 18, 2024 00:44
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I think Herbert to Bowers would be pretty drat great
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Jan 18, 2024 00:44
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My early 2023 draft crush: Isaiah Davis
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Jan 18, 2024 00:52
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Bowers to the chargers would make sense. Premium guy going to a team that if not for some horrible injury luck and abhorrent coaching wouldn't be picking there. San Diego need a reliable chain mover, who can add an additional dimension to an offense that is kind of lacking in reliability and he fits the bill. Its such a deep WR class that they can probably go back to back on offensive skill positions and be fine.
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Jan 18, 2024 01:25
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wandler20 posted:Yes, I would take a guaranteed hall of fame player in the top 10. The problem is, nothing is guaranteed. I'd rather swing for a WR or QB or CB or OT or Pass rusher waaaay before id swing for a TE. Out of the top 25 reception yards leaders of all time 7 were drafted in the top 10. Out of the top 25 passing leaders of all time 10 were drafted in the top 10. Out of the top 25 sack leaders of all time 10 were drafted in the top 10. Out of the top 25 interception leaders of all time 3 were drafted in the top 10, 8 if you are counting by passes defended. Not too great rates across the board. TEs aren't typically drafted high so the metric can't really apply the same. Of the top 25 stat yards leaders for TEs only 3 were drafted in the top 10. Only 17 TEs have ever been drafted in the top 10 though. 17 QBs have been drafted in the top 10 since 2017. The point is that hit rates are pretty negligible and just take the good player high. Hockenson has already been pretty valuable, Vernon Davis had a pretty long, decent career, Pitts is already at 2k yards in 3 years, and guys like Eric Ebron and Kellen Winslow Jr. were valuable in their own right. Gonzalez was taken pretty high at 13 too. I see nothing wrong in teams getting valuable guys that last for a long time regardless of the position. The rate of someone getting a guy like C.J. Stroud and instantly turning their team around isn't that high.
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Jan 18, 2024 01:44
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Tight Ends are incredibly valuable but only on day 2 or 3 because that's where all the elite prospects live. Something about getting selected in the first round mucks up the social cultivation of true TE brain. They need to be like a golden retriever that loves violence and Christmas movies. I'd definitely trade a 1st round pick for a TE selected 92 overall.
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Jan 18, 2024 01:51
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The Puppy Bowl posted:Something about getting selected in the first round mucks up the social cultivation of true TE brain. They need to be like a golden retriever that loves violence and Christmas movies. I'll probably never forget this line: https://twitter.com/JustinM_NFL/status/1733148454640046418
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Jan 18, 2024 01:57
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SKULL.GIF posted:I'll probably never forget this line: THATS MY TE1 BABY!
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Jan 18, 2024 02:03
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Sounds like some Chuck Tingle writing.
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Jan 18, 2024 02:40
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Doltos posted:TE is absolutely a premium position you spend high draft capital on because that's the point of high draft capital. Goons have this weird obsession with only taking certain positions in the top 10 ignoring all the times they bust or are reaches or that they don't turn a team around. Then they link redrafts taking those same 'non premium' positions high because they had great careers. You wouldn't spend a top 25 pick on Rob Gronkowski in the 2010 draft? You'd really fault a team for taking him over Tyson Alualu? Tight ends are categorically less productive than wide receivers, and I think that's something that has to be taken into consideration. The best all-time year for a TE is barely in the top 100 for WRs, and your median performance is probably an even bigger gap. Even if you corrected for the pass protection snaps a TE takes that a WR doesn't, there's still a fairly large discrepancy there. If you're talking a 1st round TE, you're looking at a likely production that would likely be at least a mild disappointment from a similarly drafted WR. I'm sympathetic to the argument that a TE is different, and gives your offense benefits beyond direct production, but how exactly do you quantify that? The blocking of the upper tier of TEs is largely pedestrian, I'm not sure that's a great value proposition(and even among the exceptions I think it's highly situational). There's a difference in concepts, the stresses it puts on defenses, an argument to be made about them always being on the field... but I'm not sure that's exclusive to highly productive or athletic tight ends, either. Is a lot of that stuff also true of a Dalton Schultz, a physically unremarkable, relatively cheap player who generates pretty much all the same stuff besides the top-end yardage of a WR? Some of these guys are really more nominally tight ends at this point- they're really just wide receivers. You've got Kyle Pitts lining up like 15% of his snaps in-line at this point. I think you can make an argument he's functionally less of a TE than like, a Rams slot receiver, who is lining up at least that tight to the OT, and in a lot of cases is a better blocker against the slot CB who is dragged into the box and being given a gap than Pitts is against whoever he's matching against.
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Jan 18, 2024 03:02
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Hamhandler posted:Tight ends are categorically less productive than wide receivers, and I think that's something that has to be taken into consideration. The best all-time year for a TE is barely in the top 100 for WRs, and your median performance is probably an even bigger gap. Even if you corrected for the pass protection snaps a TE takes that a WR doesn't, there's still a fairly large discrepancy there. If you're talking a 1st round TE, you're looking at a likely production that would likely be at least a mild disappointment from a similarly drafted WR. QBs are targeting their TEs more than ever. Kelce produced 152 targets last year putting him in the top 10 for receiving with the highest catch % out of all those in the top 10. Ignoring those numbers, his effect on the field stretching those defenses was invaluable for an offense that won a Super Bowl. Goff just threw 120 passes at LaPorta this year. Njoku, Hockenson, Engram, they all saw heavy targets that beat out many #1 WRs this year outproducing them too. We're not in the era anymore where TEs get targeted 4 times a game at most. Tons more Tony Gonzalez's running around making offenses by themselves just because the NFL fits them right now. Hamhandler posted:I'm sympathetic to the argument that a TE is different, and gives your offense benefits beyond direct production, but how exactly do you quantify that? The blocking of the upper tier of TEs is largely pedestrian, I'm not sure that's a great value proposition(and even among the exceptions I think it's highly situational). There's a difference in concepts, the stresses it puts on defenses, an argument to be made about them always being on the field... but I'm not sure that's exclusive to highly productive or athletic tight ends, either. Is a lot of that stuff also true of a Dalton Schultz, a physically unremarkable, relatively cheap player who generates pretty much all the same stuff besides the top-end yardage of a WR? You can sort of quantify it if you look at stupid PFF grades but a better way to do it is just watch them. Kittle, LaPorta, Ferguson, and Goedert are all plus blockers that spring really good runs consistently with their edge sealing. I'd argue that LaPorta's blocking would make him more valuable than any rookie receiver besides Nacua this year. Hamhandler posted:Some of these guys are really more nominally tight ends at this point- they're really just wide receivers. You've got Kyle Pitts lining up like 15% of his snaps in-line at this point. I think you can make an argument he's functionally less of a TE than like, a Rams slot receiver, who is lining up at least that tight to the OT, and in a lot of cases is a better blocker against the slot CB who is dragged into the box and being given a gap than Pitts is against whoever he's matching against. Tight Ends lining up in the slot aren't a knock to the position. It's a result of pass oriented offenses trending up over the past decade. If anything we're going to see the TE position increase in value as TE routes typically attack the split field concept defenses are running and somewhat cover 0 since they can beat safeties playing close to the line with their size. Pitts lining up in the slot this year was also probably in response to them using him tight to the line all during the 2022 season to make up for their lovely o-line. He's always been a big WR threat but he proved his blocking pretty well last year so I don't really know why that's a knock. If anything that makes their offense more complex once they get a competent coach that can use him in both regards.
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Jan 18, 2024 03:37
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Draft dudes you think are going to be good fits for your team. If you are a team that doesn't use the TE except as a blocker or checkdown option, then yeah, don't draft the TE top 10. If you are a team that is going to properly use them and relies on them and their versatility in the passing and run game, if your scouting has him as a top of the draft level talent, then draft him, draft value maximization be damned. You aren't drafting to maximize Draft grades, and get the best value. You are drafting to find the best players for your team. Value Maximization is like a useful goal, as more shots = more hits on players. But at the end of the day, no one gives a poo poo past like the week after the draft if the person or people you drafted is a dude. Word to the Lions. Just don't be wrong because then that is all you will ever hear....
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Jan 18, 2024 06:12
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i feel like the main reason not to draft a TE in the top 10 is bc largely it's an undervalued position in the draft so by taking a TE that high you're potentially out of the running for a lot of the best O-lineman, Receivers, QBs, and DEs who are perhaps over-valued positions in the draft. More to the point for the Chargers, they've got a lot of loving needs and TE is not in the top 3 so why take one when they can get a premium guy at any positions besides like QB at that spot and still be able to take an extremely good TE in the 2nd round?
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Jan 18, 2024 06:41
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Relentlessboredomm posted:i feel like the main reason not to draft a TE in the top 10 is bc largely it's an undervalued position in the draft so by taking a TE that high you're potentially out of the running for a lot of the best O-lineman, Receivers, QBs, and DEs who are perhaps over-valued positions in the draft. But you might miss out on the next Gronk or Kelce (not even first rounders)....or end up with the next Kyle Brady or Ricky Dudley (top 10 picks). How many WR or OT or QB or DE or CB would you take over George Kittle? 50? 60 guys? Maybe more? The best TE in the NFL isn't even worth the 10th best WR in the league.
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Jan 18, 2024 07:10
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Tight End market is only going up. A great tight end opens up your entire offense, especially as we move into a more RPO/Motion centric era. Would the Lions offense be where it is without Sam LaPorta? I don’t think so.
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Jan 18, 2024 07:24
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It’s late but I just want to give a shout out to the folks giving reasoned, logical, and observably true effort posts for why it is unoptimal to draft TEs high in the first. I love draft strategy talk 
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Jan 18, 2024 07:26
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Relentlessboredomm posted:i feel like the main reason not to draft a TE in the top 10 is bc largely it's an undervalued position in the draft so by taking a TE that high you're potentially out of the running for a lot of the best O-lineman, Receivers, QBs, and DEs who are perhaps over-valued positions in the draft. There's not a CB or DT or C or RB or LB worth taking at 5. So for needs with a player worth taking that high, you've got RT, WR, TE, and DE. I'd be fine taking Bowers at TE I'd be fine taking Nabers at WR I'd be fine taking Latu at DE I'd be fine taking Alt at OT I'd be fine trading down unless MHJ is on the board. The Chargers will have to try real loving hard to screw this pick up for me
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Jan 18, 2024 07:33
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A Sneaker Broker posted:Tight End market is only going up. A great tight end opens up your entire offense, especially as we move into a more RPO/Motion centric era. Would the Lions offense be where it is without Sam LaPorta? I don’t think so. No disagreement there but it's still not more valuable than a QB, DE, #1 WR, or a T. I'm not a hard and fast "thou shalt not draft" X position before X draft pick type for anything but P/K but I'd argue using a top 5 pick on a TE is a waste (particularly in this draft) if for no other reason than you could absolutely get one of the desperate idiots behind you to trade up for all the dudes you've apparently decided you don't want. Like in this draft for sure by pick 5: Caleb & Drake are off the board Probably MHJ too Then it's a toss-up between an OT, Nabers, Jayden Daniels, or a DE for the 4th player. That means at pick 5 for sure you'll have one of Nabers, Daniels, the top DEs, or the top OT in the class sitting there. Why on earth would you draft a TE there, even if that's what your GM believe is the best player for your team?? Someone will pay you a fortune to move down so they can get Nabers, Daniels, or the top OT.
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Jan 18, 2024 07:36
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a neat cape posted:There's not a CB or DT or C or RB or LB worth taking at 5. Is Slater moving from LT or would Alt be the new RT? I think I agree with that assessment of the prospects except for Latu at DE. I really like Latu and what he did in his two years at UCLA is very nice. But it kind of feels like he’s maybe at his ceiling and I’m scared of his injury history. I just don’t think he’s on the same prospect level as like Nabers is for WR.
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Jan 18, 2024 07:39
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I feel like you for sure take Nabers or an OT if you get stuck at that pick and MHJ is gone. I lean towards OT bc the longer Herbie stays upright the more likely you're going to win games but also Nabers solves their main offensive issue of getting a fast dude who can catch. Nabers is so loving good ya'll, imagine Herbie throwing insane bombs to him.
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Jan 18, 2024 07:41
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Ornery and Hornery posted:Is Slater moving from LT or would Alt be the new RT? Alt would be the RT. Slater is already an elite NFL left tackle, so moving him seems dumb. And for the record, Relentlessboredomm, I agree with you in that if I was in charge, Nabers or Trading Down would be the choice. Herbert with a deep threat like Nabers would have me in some kind of mood. But if they take Bowers, or Alt, or Latu, I'm not going to be upset. It still fills a glaring hole and they should still be great.
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Jan 18, 2024 07:45
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Relentlessboredomm posted:No disagreement there but it's still not more valuable than a QB, DE, #1 WR, or a T. I'm not a hard and fast "thou shalt not draft" X position before X draft pick type for anything but P/K but I'd argue using a top 5 pick on a TE is a waste (particularly in this draft) if for no other reason than you could absolutely get one of the desperate idiots behind you to trade up for all the dudes you've apparently decided you don't want. I recognize that there are still coaches to be hired, but I have a hard time seeing the top four picks being anything other than the three QBs and MHJ. Even if the teams currently 1-4 don’t want one of the QBs or MHJ, it seems like they’d easily trade down to a team that does.
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Jan 18, 2024 07:45
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Ornery and Hornery posted:I recognize that there are still coaches to be hired, but I have a hard time seeing the top four picks being anything other than the three QBs and MHJ. I feel like if Daniels ISN'T taken in the top 4, the Chargers could potentially get a lot in a trade from a team like Atlanta or Minnesota that wants to ensure they get him
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Jan 18, 2024 07:46
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Relentlessboredomm posted:I feel like you for sure take Nabers or an OT if you get stuck at that pick and MHJ is gone. This draft has elite wr talent and great OG/OT talent. I think if I was the chargers I’d take Nabers at five and then hope one of the RT or OG/OT prospects is there at the top of the second. We all agree: Herbie deserves good things.
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Jan 18, 2024 07:47
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a neat cape posted:I feel like if Daniels ISN'T taken in the top 4, the Chargers could potentially get a lot in a trade from a team like Atlanta or Minnesota that wants to ensure they get him agreed. a neat cape posted:Alt would be the RT. Slater is already an elite NFL left tackle, so moving him seems dumb. yea that's fair. im also iffy on Latu tho just for the medical stuff. my hot take is if I have a top 5 pick I want a multi year starter who doesn't have a scary injury history or a checkered past. someone else said it here but at a certain point staying healthy is a skillset, give me one of those dudes Ornery and Hornery posted:I recognize that there are still coaches to be hired, but I have a hard time seeing the top four picks being anything other than the three QBs and MHJ. I could see the Pats going MHJ and the Cards going for an OT but yea it does seem unlikely Jayden is still around at 5. If he is the Chargers are nuts not to trade down since the Giants will 100% take the opportunity to get a real QB on the roster if it falls into their lap so a lot of teams will try to trade up.
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Jan 18, 2024 07:54
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Many scouts think Nabers is close behind MHJ, like there is a thin line between them. He will be gone by 5.
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Jan 18, 2024 08:01
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Over the cap’s trade calculator seems iffy. Or maybe it’s just late and I’m on mobile. But chargers if Daniels is there pls trade with seattle we will give you two first two seconds and a third.
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Jan 18, 2024 08:23
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Relentlessboredomm posted:I could see the Pats going MHJ and the Cards going for an OT but yea it does seem unlikely Jayden is still around at 5. If he is the Chargers are nuts not to trade down since the Giants will 100% take the opportunity to get a real QB on the roster if it falls into their lap so a lot of teams will try to trade up.
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Jan 18, 2024 08:25
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Doltos posted:QBs are targeting their TEs more than ever. Kelce produced 152 targets last year putting him in the top 10 for receiving with the highest catch % out of all those in the top 10. Ignoring those numbers, his effect on the field stretching those defenses was invaluable for an offense that won a Super Bowl. Goff just threw 120 passes at LaPorta this year. Njoku, Hockenson, Engram, they all saw heavy targets that beat out many #1 WRs this year outproducing them too. We're not in the era anymore where TEs get targeted 4 times a game at most. Tons more Tony Gonzalez's running around making offenses by themselves just because the NFL fits them right now. Ok, but even then the production isn’t on par with a top receiver. You’ve got elite tight ends giving you what, a good year of Jarvis Landry being about the best you can hope for. That’s not what you’d be happy with from a comparable receiver. Doltos posted:You can sort of quantify it if you look at stupid PFF grades but a better way to do it is just watch them. Kittle, LaPorta, Ferguson, and Goedert are all plus blockers that spring really good runs consistently with their edge sealing. I'd argue that LaPorta's blocking would make him more valuable than any rookie receiver besides Nacua this year. We’re talking about first round guys, or even high first rounders. You do bring up name that I think illustrated a good point, though- I would argue that TE blocking is a lot more specialized and situational than people really appreciate and that goes completely in the wash with the upper round guys. Take George Kittle- one of the best performing blockers in the NFL- but his skill set at doing it is very specific. I would argue that Kittle would be absolutely wasted as a blocker outside of a wide zone team. He’s great at movement, at torquing a guy moving laterally off of his feet, jockeying for position while keeping his feet moving. He’s downright bad at traditional gap stuff, he’s just undersized and underpowered as his best hope is to try to play positional games and try to turn a guy, which he really can’t do that well against guys outside of his weight class on the edge. If we’re talking say, a scenario where the Jim Harbaugh Chargers draft Brock Bowers… what’s that going to look like? Probably poo poo, from a run blocking standpoint, but it’ll be something that gets glossed over based on the receiving potential. Doltos posted:Tight Ends lining up in the slot aren't a knock to the position. It's a result of pass oriented offenses trending up over the past decade. If anything we're going to see the TE position increase in value as TE routes typically attack the split field concept defenses are running and somewhat cover 0 since they can beat safeties playing close to the line with their size. Pitts lining up in the slot this year was also probably in response to them using him tight to the line all during the 2022 season to make up for their lovely o-line. He's always been a big WR threat but he proved his blocking pretty well last year so I don't really know why that's a knock. If anything that makes their offense more complex once they get a competent coach that can use him in both regards. It’s a negative from the standpoint of them contributing the “unique” stuff the position gives you vs a WR. Hamhandler fucked around with this message at 15:33 on Jan 18, 2024 |
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Jan 18, 2024 15:30
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when it's my turn i want the best guy left. On the big big board
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Jan 18, 2024 15:59
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Cavauro posted:when it's my turn i want the best guy left. On the big big board Best player in the draft not named MHJ in my opinion is Joe Alt
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Jan 18, 2024 16:07
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everyone talking about "production" ignores that a huge part of a TE's game - pass and run blocking - is completely unquantified in the modern nfl (no, PFF grades don't count) and thus discounted out of hand when talking about relative value to a WR. it's true egghead poo poo, and completely asinine
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Jan 18, 2024 16:21
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well i need the 18th best guy, or whoever is better than that but didn't get picked. i'm gonna "get it"
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Jan 18, 2024 16:27
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Cavauro posted:well i need the 18th best guy, or whoever is better than that but didn't get picked. i'm gonna "get it" Heh you are gonna get it alright…
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Jan 18, 2024 16:53
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Cavauro posted:well i need the 18th best guy, or whoever is better than that but didn't get picked. i'm gonna "get it" Cooper DeJean
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Jan 18, 2024 17:27
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Who is this year's big slow guy that will be a phenomenal WR regardless? These are my type of guys and I finally want Baltimore to get one. I loved Cooper Kupp in the draft (also Jaelen Strong) so it'd be nice to get the next one.
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Jan 18, 2024 17:30
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The Puppy Bowl posted:Who is this year's big slow guy that will be a phenomenal WR regardless? These are my type of guys and I finally want Baltimore to get one. I loved Cooper Kupp in the draft (also Jaelen Strong) so it'd be nice to get the next one. Jamari Thrash, Xavier Legette, or my personal favorite, AD Mitchell. Also Malachi Corely.
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Jan 18, 2024 17:31
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Hamhandler posted:Ok, but even then the production isn’t on par with a top receiver. You’ve got elite tight ends giving you what, a good year of Jarvis Landry being about the best you can hope for. That’s not what you’d be happy with from a comparable receiver. You're comparing a position that runs short to intermediate routes to receivers that run the full route tree. There's a reason WRs produce more. The point remains that both positions fill their niche and neither would exist without the other. The NFL has been doing a ton of shotgun only offenses recently and they've all failed this year between the Chargers, Bengals, Eagles, etc. The Packers just beat the pants off of the Cowboys running under center with Tucker Kraft doing a ton of blocking work. Hamhandler posted:We’re talking about first round guys, or even high first rounders. You do bring up name that I think illustrated a good point, though- I would argue that TE blocking is a lot more specialized and situational than people really appreciate and that goes completely in the wash with the upper round guys. Take George Kittle- one of the best performing blockers in the NFL- but his skill set at doing it is very specific. I would argue that Kittle would be absolutely wasted as a blocker outside of a wide zone team. He’s great at movement, at torquing a guy moving laterally off of his feet, jockeying for position while keeping his feet moving. He’s downright bad at traditional gap stuff, he’s just undersized and underpowered as his best hope is to try to play positional games and try to turn a guy, which he really can’t do that well against guys outside of his weight class on the edge. I'd argue some of those guys deserved to be drafted higher but regardless the position of where any position is drafted is negligible. Every position busts. You're advocating to take worse looking prospects higher because they might hit over better looking prospects just because of their position. Again I ask you what would the NFL look like if teams only spent their top ten picks on four 'premium' positions? Are we just supposed to ignore a great player like George Kittle because he doesn't fit a blocking style that you think is valuable? The 49ers are one of the most successful running teams specifically because Kittle can work those outside hip blocks. Hamhandler posted:If we’re talking say, a scenario where the Jim Harbaugh Chargers draft Brock Bowers… what’s that going to look like? Probably poo poo, from a run blocking standpoint, but it’ll be something that gets glossed over based on the receiving potential. I don't think the Chargers are going to draft Brock Bowers but I doubt any team would be unhappy with his receiving potential. Hamhandler posted:It’s a negative from the standpoint of them contributing the “unique” stuff the position gives you vs a WR. TEs block from inline and the slot. They also give you the 'unique' stuff of being able to run across the middle or out jump a safety on short yardage play, something most WRs have trouble with considering they're not all built to take those hits or run those routes. There's a reason the Bucs don't use Mike Evans like a TE.
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Jan 18, 2024 18:26
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