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Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Nfcknblvbl posted:

Sodium ion batteries are beginning to make their way into EVs. They’re cheaper than lithium ion, and have similar energy density to lipo batteries.

Whoops missed this, yeah great point. Sodium is effectively limitless (it's a primary component of sea wate, for example ) and is definitely going to put a cap on commodity prismatic lithium battery prices like lifepo4

Sodium batteries won't compete with lightweight, high performance batteries like li-poly and cylindrical cells (18650, 2170, 4680) seen in the top line model S, but probably will go in trucks, minivans, econoboxes

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Nfcknblvbl
Jul 15, 2002

Another great thing about sodium batteries is how easy they are to recycle, you don't need expensive factories to recover the materials in them like lithium.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Yeah just crack one open like a beer can and pour it right back into the ocean

or not

Sodium has a much lower (like half) maximum discharge rate compared to lithium, but for toodling around town and accelerating at civilian rates on to the highway it's more than adequate

Hadlock fucked around with this message at 21:09 on Jan 18, 2024

Frequent Handies
Nov 26, 2006

      :yum:

This all sounds like a lot of work when you can just trade SPX 0DTE, just saying

pixaal
Jan 8, 2004

All ice cream is now for all beings, no matter how many legs.


Or short vol

Frequent Handies
Nov 26, 2006

      :yum:

Ew

MeatRocket8
Aug 3, 2011

I want to copy a friends trades. I don't want access to their trading account, and I don't want them to have to text me all the transactions they make. Is there a way I can monitor their activity remotely?

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Is your friend a senator

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

ChocNitty posted:

I want to copy a friends trades. I don't want access to their trading account, and I don't want them to have to text me all the transactions they make. Is there a way I can monitor their activity remotely?

no

to monitor their trading activity they would have to either give you access to their account, or publish their trading activity in a place you can see it.

also

you should not copy your friend's trades blindly, there's a zero percent chance that this is a good idea

skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

ChocNitty posted:

I want to copy a friends trades. I don't want access to their trading account, and I don't want them to have to text me all the transactions they make. Is there a way I can monitor their activity remotely?

Buy an index fund or sector ETF

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


ChocNitty posted:

I want to copy a friends trades. I don't want access to their trading account, and I don't want them to have to text me all the transactions they make. Is there a way I can monitor their activity remotely?

your friend could become a registered investment advisor and manage your account:
https://advisorservices.schwab.com/
https://advisorservices.schwab.com/serving-your-clients/acct-mgmnt-trading

if you do this please post the daily play-by-play here for comedy goldmine

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Leperflesh posted:


you should not copy your friend's trades blindly, there's a zero percent chance that this is a good idea

Not true, if their friend is a senator it's more than likely break even, at worst. Assuming they make the same trade on the same day

MetaJew
Apr 14, 2006
Gather round, one and all, and thrill to my turgid tales of underwhelming misadventure!

Hadlock posted:

Not true, if their friend is a senator it's more than likely break even, at worst. Assuming they make the same trade on the same day

You should buy the IP address for https://www.senate.gov

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

If you have access to the days trades you could do this in at least two ways, assuming you're tracking a finite number of tickers and they're buying more than ~7 shares. You'd have to be completely insane:

1. Using a one time pad method, when they buy a block of shares they buy them in a pre agreed upon multiple and number of randomly chosen but previously agreed upon cents, i.e. 700 shares of Ford but bought 100 shares x 7 times at a price of $X.73

2. Buying some medium large multiple of shares like above but the cent price is the checksum of some combination of the share price, number of shares and today's date

There's always the chance that someone figures out your plan and triggers your script to buy $50 million dollars of NDRA 5 minutes before they declare bankruptcy

There's still some statistical chance you end up copying someone else's trade, or you end up in a feedback loop of some LLM that's picked up on the pattern (one time pad should prevent that though)

Hadlock fucked around with this message at 02:49 on Jan 19, 2024

mrmcd
Feb 22, 2003

Pictured: The only good cop (a fictional one).

Assuming this isn't just a dumb way of asking "How do I insider trade, goons??" the answer is probably a shared Google or excel sheet.

Or better yet Gmail forwarding rules.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Is it possible to short the reddit IPO before it's listed

Seems like having the reddit ticker on your exchange error be a huge blow to your reputation

Hobologist
May 4, 2007

We'll have one entire section labelled "for degenerates"
I didn't quite know where else to post this, but I've been playing with Excel for a while and have devised a way to derive the zero coupon yield curve from the par yields posted on the US Treasury website. The zero yield curve is the only actually useful yield curve because it makes no irritating assumptions about reinvestment of interim interest payments.

I started with a linear calculation between the published years, but then I decided to base it on the natural log of the time between the years because my impression is that the yield curve tends towards flatness over long periods, and then I threw in a tweak to make the slope continuous. I get a curve that looks nice except for at the 20-30 year period, which is kind of wonky because of the unusual shape of the yield curve at present (it inverts, un-inverts, and then reinverts).

Does anyone actually play with fixed income analysis using Excel or are we all still looking for meme stocks?

Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination
Just so you all know the amazing dd that gets posted in the discord



(i'm thinking within 3 months)

(ps There's a handful of real sharks in the discord, I'm not and I'm making a joke)

Toalpaz fucked around with this message at 15:38 on Jan 19, 2024

Zephyris
May 23, 2006

If you only knew the power of...
I'm back in the NG game! /NGH decided to go below $2.50 again. Opened up a 90C about two days ago, and just rolled it. Added a 100C for next week.



Current positioning (gently caress Rick Ross lmbo)

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


new all-time high daily close for s&p, nasdaq, djia

Baddog
May 12, 2001
Logged in after close to a big red margin call alert on my main account. I didn't think I was anywhere near being in trouble, in fact I thought I had everything more than covered, even if the underlying on every option position I had went to 0. Yes, a few orders had filled at close while I was away, but it wasn't *that* much, even at 100% requirements.

Fumbled around trying to quickly add everything up to verify, called in to support, refresh my screen..... alert is gone, back to (massively) covered. What the gently caress is going on Etrade/Morgan Stanley? "Ohhhh you know, just a glitch lololol, everything looks good, you have more than enough. Hey, can we interest you in some financial planning services?" Jesus christ, I gotta be done with these guys.

I expressed bigly concern that they might *glitch* again and firesale my positions with market orders, which would probably result in some large losses for me. The guy said *usually* they give 24-48 hours, and someone actually puts eyeballs on the thing. But if the glitch is big enough? Ehhhh, I don't trust 'em.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I think the title of this or a previous version of this thread used to be "never e*trade" and I feel like that may still be good advice

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Leperflesh posted:

I think the title of this or a previous version of this thread used to be "never e*trade" and I feel like that may still be good advice

Man, I was the guy who always said they've been fine. I've been with them since pretty much the beginning, almost 30 years. But this morgan stanley integration is ..... holy poo poo.

Oscar Wild
Apr 11, 2006

It's good to be a G

Baddog posted:

Logged in after close to a big red margin call alert on my main account. I didn't think I was anywhere near being in trouble, in fact I thought I had everything more than covered, even if the underlying on every option position I had went to 0. Yes, a few orders had filled at close while I was away, but it wasn't *that* much, even at 100% requirements.

Fumbled around trying to quickly add everything up to verify, called in to support, refresh my screen..... alert is gone, back to (massively) covered. What the gently caress is going on Etrade/Morgan Stanley? "Ohhhh you know, just a glitch lololol, everything looks good, you have more than enough. Hey, can we interest you in some financial planning services?" Jesus christ, I gotta be done with these guys.

I expressed bigly concern that they might *glitch* again and firesale my positions with market orders, which would probably result in some large losses for me. The guy said *usually* they give 24-48 hours, and someone actually puts eyeballs on the thing. But if the glitch is big enough? Ehhhh, I don't trust 'em.

When I worked retail we would only liquidate if the full account balance was about to go negative. If it was just not meeting the margin requirements but still very in the green we'd call and try to get a wire, check, or facilitate a user sale to meet margin requirements. Usually it would be the most leveraged positions first, so if something had special requirements like a Gamestop, we'd probably liquidate that first.

skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

Leperflesh posted:

I think the title of this or a previous version of this thread used to be "never e*trade" and I feel like that may still be good advice

Sure, but they found me anyway. I was in Optionshouse and they got bought out

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Oscar Wild posted:

When I worked retail we would only liquidate if the full account balance was about to go negative.

That's good to know. It would have to be a monstrous "glitch" for that to happen. I would hope in the process of figuring out what needs to be sold they would bust out a calculator and realize things weren't adding up?

The guy was giving me a story about how yesterday they had someone who was naked short calls and the spread went way high (as it can on illiquid poo poo), a margin call was triggered, and they got it all sorted out eventually without anything getting sold.

But dude, I'm naked short puts, not calls, there is a cap on my losses. And I'm fine even if you move *everything* to 100% requirement (cover max loss). What the hell.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


join everyone else at schwab, tasty, ibkr, or fidelity

i never hear anyone on discord talking etrade

Oscar Wild
Apr 11, 2006

It's good to be a G
Most brokers especially back office guys are degenerate gamblers too and they've passed the series 7 so I'd hope they'd take the time to review the account to see that the marginable value of the account was more than enough to offset the derrivative. But they also might be experiencing Adderall induced amphetamine physchosis while posting on reddit WSB. I mean, they passed the 7.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Oscar Wild posted:

But they also might be experiencing Adderall induced amphetamine physchosis while posting on reddit WSB. I mean, they passed the 7.

Haha yah......


pmchem posted:

join everyone else at schwab, tasty, ibkr, or fidelity

i never hear anyone on discord talking etrade

I'd like to get everything from this estate settled, and it is *still* dragging on, almost a year now. I need to get moved this year though, I guess might as well start moving some accounts.

Schwab and tdameritrade/thinkorswim integration has gone ok, no issues popping up?

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.
I actually had a very short term margin warning glitch happen to me once on Fidelity when I was enabling margin on an account and they were moving some assets from cash to margin but not everything was immediately adding up correctly. Does give you a bit of a panic.

From what I've learned though the overnight period is pretty critical especially in margin accounts for the people on the backend to move the numbers around to their actual correct places. That's probably why they give you a couple days to sort things out when a margin call sounds before they start selling assets, it also gives themselves a couple overnight periods to identify potential glitches.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


$PAYX came up on a screener of mine.

Anyone have to deal with payroll processors in their day job? How does Paychex compare to ADP, Gusto, Rippling, etc.? A lot of fintechs out there targeting this space, so I wonder if Paychex has any kind of competitive advantage or if it's gaining market share. Anyone know?

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

Leperflesh posted:

I think the title of this or a previous version of this thread used to be "never e*trade" and I feel like that may still be good advice

it was also "What's the grace period on a margin call?" for a while and I love how those streams are crossing

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

pmchem posted:

$PAYX came up on a screener of mine.

Anyone have to deal with payroll processors in their day job? How does Paychex compare to ADP, Gusto, Rippling, etc.? A lot of fintechs out there targeting this space, so I wonder if Paychex has any kind of competitive advantage or if it's gaining market share. Anyone know?

They're all fighting over the tiny bottom end of the market of small businesses that operate in one state and have minimal compliance concerns. For any business that's bigger than a single proprietorship everything other than ADP may as well not exist. It's just too important for anyone to roll dice on the new guy.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

I used to work at a company that did their own payroll processing. They might have been the back end for trinet at one point. I used to have lunch with the CTO, VP of engineering (only about 30 us employees) who both had been there from conception 15+ years ago. They both said the same thing: payroll is a money loser, unless you're ADP and has the volume to operate at ADP scale. It's not worth the engineering time and money to keep it running. I forget why they didn't get rid of it and switch to ADP but maybe they were kicking the one time conversion costs down the road.

Anyways TL;DR C suite industry veterans were constantly complaining that they didn't want to compete with ADP since the margins are almost nothing and they were losing money on it

Also Pennsylvania has crazy weird tax laws there's a dedicated service that updates PA tax laws weekly. PA can have different state taxes per zip code not just per city and they can modify it quarterly or something? I forget. Tax calculations get stupid real fast. All I remember is sometimes they would ship the new tax rules at like 11:59pm on Sunday and we'd have to get it loaded by 7am to send people the right paycheck. Payroll sucks

Edit: this information is kind of dated, circa early 2019

Hadlock fucked around with this message at 20:42 on Jan 22, 2024

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

my wife runs a small nonprofit and it's ADP all the way. ADP offers the 401k, it does the payroll stuff, it integrates with quickbooks etc., it has live 24/7 support, and it's reasonably costed
it also loving sucks in several ways, with some very confusing interfaces if you want to do anything sorta complicated
in my wife's case that's having some employees who also do jobs for which they get paid a contractor wage, on a per-hour basis, but with a fixed base remuneration, and just getting ADP to handle that poo poo is a giant pain in the rear end
but like, many other payroll options just straight up can't do that at all, like no you cannot have someone drawing a salary and also pay them for 8 hours of kiln firing this month

so in conclusion yeah ADP is the elephant in the room and while the moat isn't large the margins probably suck so much that you have to wonder what the gently caress the competitors are trying to do by pouring VC money into it

mrmcd
Feb 22, 2003

Pictured: The only good cop (a fictional one).

According to Patrick McKenzie's newsletter a big part of it is payroll providers is get to keep the interest on vast amounts of cash they hold short term in custody.

In exchange you have to understand and deal with hundreds of different tax regimes and also accept the credit risk for millions of thinly capitalized businesses.

Love Stole the Day
Nov 4, 2012
Please give me free quality professional advice so I can be a baby about it and insult you

mrmcd posted:

According to Patrick McKenzie's newsletter a big part of it is payroll providers is get to keep the interest on vast amounts of cash they hold short term in custody.

In exchange you have to understand and deal with hundreds of different tax regimes and also accept the credit risk for millions of thinly capitalized businesses.

I had coffee with that guy once in Tokyo, in 2017, hoping to get advice with looking for a job. Didn't lead to anything but it was still a cool conversation.

Zephyris
May 23, 2006

If you only knew the power of...
So uh, things have escalated rapidly as they usually do in NG land.

Bag holding the 90C. Just rolled the 100C to next week for more credit since I saw a little blood and chop at open today. Decided to piggy out and opened short duration call credit spreads yesterday at open and now today. New port ATH. (probably gone tomorrow lol)

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


pmchem posted:

other bank notes: check out $OPBK, a korean christian bank with a huge loan book, solid LT growth, and crazy good ROE/ROTCE and margins.

shame on an IGA posted:

wait so they have a highly correlated base of depositors who all talk to each other

that hasn't been a great formula lately

pmchem posted:

hah. but quite a different sort of clientele compared to silicon valley bank, yes?

from their 1Q balance sheet, OPBK's total deposits went up in 1Q23 (which ended a couple weeks after bank panic started):
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1722010/000162828023018156/opbk-20230331.htm

compare to like, PACW where they went down by ~15% over the same period:
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1102112/000162828023017382/pacw-20230331.htm

following up on this while I idly listen to the tesla earnings call for novelty value...

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?KBWB,KRE,JPM,C,OPBK&n=134&O=011000



OPBK, the little bank that could! their earnings are tomorrow night, wonder if it'll hold up? I currently have no position and haven't looked into it for months

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Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Screw it, I'm buying more Nvidia and I'll ride it all the way to the market cap of Apple.

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