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Mustached Demon
Nov 12, 2016

Papercut posted:

I don't think anyone watching Barry Bonds play would have trouble seeing how valuable he was

Dude had more ibbs than entire teams during his peak.

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DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


YOLOsubmarine posted:

I’m just suggesting that actually watching games, not in any deep or analytical fashion, but just sitting down and watching the games and enjoying the play instead of getting consumed with EPA and QBR and success rate and a bunch of other things is a very good way to understand how Lamar is the runaway favorite.

Is this like a wisdom of crowds thing? Are you appealing to the eye test of the average nfl viewer? Because uh…I find that unpersuasive

OGS-Remix
Sep 4, 2007

Totally surviving on my own. On LAND!

Mustached Demon posted:

Dude had more ibbs than entire teams during his peak.

This is a really good video showing how good Barry was.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwMfT2cZGHg

I wish nothing but misery for the Angels since they prevented Bonds from getting a ring.

Edit: Also awards don't matter for players so they shouldn't matter for spectators. I 100% guarantee that any player would trade MVP for a Superbowl win.

Waltzing Along
Jun 14, 2008

There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here

OGS-Remix posted:

This is a really good video showing how good Barry was.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwMfT2cZGHg

I wish nothing but misery for the Dusty since he prevented Bonds from getting a ring.

Edit: Also awards don't matter for players so they shouldn't matter for spectators. I 100% guarantee that any player would trade MVP for a Superbowl win.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

OGS-Remix posted:

This is a really good video showing how good Barry was.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwMfT2cZGHg

I wish nothing but misery for the Angels since they prevented Bonds from getting a ring.

Edit: Also awards don't matter for players so they shouldn't matter for spectators. I 100% guarantee that any player would trade MVP for a Superbowl win.

one of the best chart party

so good

Grozz Nuy
Feb 21, 2008

Welcome to Moonside.

Wecomel to Soonmide.

Moonwel ot cosidme.

Nervous posted:

What crime did the fair citizens of Seattle commit upon thee, that thyself would be so wroth as to wish this calamity upon them!?

We had to sit through nearly a decade of that corny midget playing like poo poo for three quarters and somehow pulling a win out of his rear end at the end, no sympathy.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

^Doesn’t seem like a good word to use, imo

Knight007au
May 8, 2007
Wasn't Barry a massive drug cheat so none of his stats should count or am I confusing him with someone else?

seiferguy
Jun 9, 2005

FLAWED
INTUITION



Toilet Rascal

Knight007au posted:

Wasn't Barry a massive drug cheat so none of his stats should count or am I confusing him with someone else?

He was using drugs when everyone else was using drugs.

Grozz Nuy
Feb 21, 2008

Welcome to Moonside.

Wecomel to Soonmide.

Moonwel ot cosidme.
Also drug use existed for decades before Bonds played and nobody's suggesting all the stats from the 60s when everyone was on greenies get thrown out.

David Ortiz actually got caught pissing hot, which Bonds never did, and waltzed into the Hall of Fame first ballot because he was chummy with the writers. gently caress the BBWAA.

Nervous
Jan 25, 2005

Why, hello, my little slice of pecan pie.

OGS-Remix posted:

I 100% guarantee that any player would trade MVP for a Superbowl win.

I present to you one A.A.Ron Rodgers.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Ornery and Hornery posted:

You are hilariously Purdypilled, but I respect the dedication to posting.

When Jimmy G was with Shanahan he generally had elite league ~production~ in key areas.

Here are the seasons where Jimmy played more than 10 games; 2019, 2021, 2022.
  • Yards / attempt was 3rd, 2nd, 4th
  • The YAC/completion was 1st, 1st, 2nd (tie).
  • Completion percentage was 4th, 6th, 6th.
(Note that these rankings put Jimmy above some of the actual elite of the elite qbs)

Then Jimmy goes to LV in 2023 where, in the limited games he played, his completion percentage and y/a dropped to approximately 16th and 16th. His YAC/completion would be around 29th.

Because Jimmy G loving sucks.

Everyone who watched Jimmy G, with the niners and after the niners, recognized he sucks. But Shanahan and the surrounding offense created an environment where production thrives.

People aren’t blown away by Purdy because we’ve already seen elite niners offensive production, even when the niners had a bad QB and no CMC.

Now it is without question that Brock is a substantively better quarterback than Jimmy G. The fact that Brock has a decent appetite for, and decent success with, throwing deep alone makes him better than Jimmy G. But that doesn’t mean Brock is the most valuable player in the league.

I’m not even a Purdy hater, I’m a Shanahan, Deebo, Trent Williams, Kittle, and CMC appreciator. It is weird as heck that niners fans ITT are diminishing the extraordinary coaching and surrounding offensive talent.

P.S. CMC is really good and should have been MVP of our hearts. Lamar is absolutely MVP of the league.

The offense is so much better this year than during any of the Jimmy G years that it's almost incomparable. The offensive production was dogshit! The team absolutely relied on elite defense to win games, especially in the playoffs.

Waltzing Along
Jun 14, 2008

There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here

Ornery and Hornery posted:

one of the best chart party

so good

We need more pretty good and chart party eps. That one on the Vikings made me feel really sorry for them.

Waltzing Along
Jun 14, 2008

There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here

Vox Nihili posted:

The offense is so much better this year than during any of the Jimmy G years that it's almost incomparable. The offensive production was dogshit! The team absolutely relied on elite defense to win games, especially in the playoffs.

Yeah. It was historically good this year.

People don't seem to understand just how good the niners O was this year because Shanahan wants to shorten games. If he played things faster they would have been scoring 35+ a game.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Waltzing Along posted:

Yeah. It was historically good this year.

People don't seem to understand just how good the niners O was this year because Shanahan wants to shorten games. If he played things faster they would have been scoring 35+ a game.

There’s definitely some truth to that. Niners points per offensive play was the best in the nfl this year, 2023, with Brock Purdy.

Points per play in da Jimmy G Era:
  • 2019: 2nd best in nfl
  • 2021: 13th
  • 2022: 4th

Notably, Niners scored more points per play in 2019 (0.475) than in 2023 (0.473).

Grozz Nuy
Feb 21, 2008

Welcome to Moonside.

Wecomel to Soonmide.

Moonwel ot cosidme.
But it's important to remember that this season has been one of the lowest scoring of the last decade, for context

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Yeah that’s true.

We could look at the distance of the niners PPP from the median? Do that across the years maybe?

One thing we know for sure: Shanahan should run the dang ball

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

if you're comparing purdy's play to garroppolo, you should look at points per passing (or QB rushing) play and ignore rushing and field goals. Except, QBs have the power to change plays or switch to the backup play from the line, so, maybe they should get some amount of credit for certain scoring plays on the ground. And I suppose a successful drive that ends in a FG is worth more than an unsuccessful one
so you need to add some kind of factor for that
also account for the quality of the supporting staff since that matters, so calculate the points above replacement value of every offensive player on each team, and since the roster changes week to week, do it for individual games, and then apply a weighted factor to the qb's productivity in terms of points above expected value for that day's roster

or

mayyyyybe

trying to compare qbs across time and place from different pretty good teams that did well can't really be boiled down to statistics and numbers and you do actually need to look at what the QB is doing, evaluate a representative sample of plays, and then make qualified statements about your developed opinion which will always be debatable, and you can't actually "win" an internet argument about "which player in this team sport is better" by just applying enough stats to it.

I've watched every snap purdy took this year and most snaps garoppolo ever took as a niner and in my expert opinion Purdy is a better QB in his first full year of play than Jimmy G has ever been or will ever be, and I can't loving wait to see how good Purdy will be in five years when he's got a lot more experience dealing with come from behind play, play in bad weather, and opponents who have enough tape on him to really focus on weaknesses and try to exploit them. I think he's unlikely to ever be like, the next Mahomes, but I think he's gonna be elite for a long time unless he gets hurt or the rest of team's roster falls apart.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 07:49 on Jan 22, 2024

Waltzing Along
Jun 14, 2008

There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here
To take that to the next step, Purdy is on a very very short list of QBs who were this good, this early in their careers. Just about every great QB took a few years to get there with flashes on the way.

Off the top of my head: Marino and Mahomes and...Purdy.

Nit Wit Dog Shit
Sep 28, 2000

Toilet Rascal

Waltzing Along posted:

To take that to the next step, Purdy is on a very very short list of QBs who were this good, this early in their careers. Just about every great QB took a few years to get there with flashes on the way.

Off the top of my head: Marino and Mahomes and...Purdy.

And Stroud.

shirts and skins
Jun 25, 2007

Good morning!
It's sort of funny that the Niners either lose to the Lions or face one of the last two teams to beat them in the Super Bowl

King Hong Kong
Nov 6, 2009

For we'll fight with a vim
that is dead sure to win.

shirts and skins posted:

It's sort of funny that the Niners either lose to the Lions or face one of the last two teams to beat them in the Super Bowl

If the 49ers lose to the Lions then go Lions.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Leperflesh posted:

…trying to compare qbs across time and place from different pretty good teams that did well can't really be boiled down to statistics and numbers and you do actually need to look at what the QB is doing, evaluate a representative sample of plays, and then make qualified statements about your developed opinion which will always be debatable, and you can't actually "win" an internet argument about "which player in this team sport is better" by just applying enough stats to it.

I've watched every snap purdy took this year and most snaps garoppolo ever took as a niner and in my expert opinion Purdy is a better QB in his first full year of play than Jimmy G has ever been or will ever be, and I can't loving wait to see how good Purdy will be in five years when he's got a lot more experience dealing with come from behind play, play in bad weather, and opponents who have enough tape on him to really focus on weaknesses and try to exploit them. I think he's unlikely to ever be like, the next Mahomes, but I think he's gonna be elite for a long time unless he gets hurt or the rest of team's roster falls apart.

No one is debating that Purdy is better than Jimmy G. Brock is clearly better.

We’re also not comparing Brock and Jimmy across decades or different teams. It’s the same HC, doing the same OC responsibilities, with similar opposing coaches, with about as similar a roster could be possible in the NFL. Now granted there is a lot of where roster churn in the NFL but it’s about as close of a clean comparison of QBs could exist.

And I’m not the one who initiated the conversation by “boiling it down to statistics”. Qualitatively it’s pretty easy to observe that Purdy is clearly benefiting from an incredible situation. And it’s pretty easy to observe that Purdy has some limitations. So it’s reasonable to think he’s not as valuable as Lamar.

The rebuttal to this, in favor of Purdy, was generally “well look at the stats”. And if we look at the stats in a broader context we can learn a lot. We know that previously the niners offensive production and efficiency was near the top of the league with a terrible qb (Jimmy G). We know that the current offense got better with the addition of CMC and Purdy. We know that CMC is so good that people were at least including him, an rb, in the discussion for MVP.

It seems reasonable to conclude that 1) a lot of the niners success is from factors other than Purdy and 2) Purdy is better than Jimmy G.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

King Hong Kong posted:

If the 49ers lose to the Lions then go Lions.

Waltzing Along
Jun 14, 2008

There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here

Ornery and Hornery posted:

So it’s reasonable to think he’s not as valuable as Lamar.


Lamars value is as a runner. He's not a particularly good passer. I base this on actually watching him and his terrible mechanics and wide open receivers due to terrified of his running defenses.

shirts and skins
Jun 25, 2007

Good morning!
Wow, he has wide open receivers because he's such a potent running threat?

Sounds.... valuable

Mustached Demon
Nov 12, 2016

Waltzing Along posted:

Lamars value is as a runner. He's not a particularly good passer. I base this on actually watching him and his terrible mechanics and wide open receivers due to terrified of his running defenses.

Lamar does Russell Wilson bullshit better than Russell Wilson could ever. Oh he's also good in the pocket.

Dancing Peasant
Jul 19, 2003

All this for stealing a piece of bread? :waycool:

King Hong Kong posted:

If the 49ers lose to the Lions then go Lions.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Ornery and Hornery posted:

It seems reasonable to conclude that 1) a lot of the niners success is from factors other than Purdy and 2) Purdy is better than Jimmy G.

thanks I think that's more than sufficient without the rest of the text, because I think it's enough to put Purdy into the MVP conversation and the rest of that conversation is eye look, not "well the niners were already good" which I still do not buy as a convincing argument, at all.

For the record I'm not one of the ones insisting Purdy deserves the MVP over Jackson for sure. I think it's close. I think, and have said, that guys like Tyreek Hill and CMC and even Raheem Mostert should have been at the top of the list, anyway.

Coldforge
Oct 29, 2002

I knew it would be bad.
I didn't know it would be so stupid.

Ornery and Hornery posted:

a terrible qb (Jimmy G)

Because Jimmy is a terrible QB now, and was for much of the time while he was with the 49ers, does not mean he was always a terrible QB. He was always limited, but his 2019 season was genuinely good play on his part. He was simply a case of a QB who was frequently injured and could never recover from nor adjust to his injuries.

Pure speculation, but I imagine his torn ACL in 2018 led to further leg and posture related problems for him, as that seems to be a fairly common issue for some people. There were always rumors that he didn’t practice or rehab with enough effort.

https://youtu.be/PgW5i-MioVk

MakaVillian
Aug 16, 2003

Well, in Whoville they say - that his tiny hands grew three sizes that day.

King Hong Kong posted:

If the 49ers lose to the Lions then go Lions.

A correct opinion

trilljester
Dec 7, 2004

The People's Tight End.

MakaVillian posted:

A correct opinion

Yeah but let's go Niners

Mustached Demon
Nov 12, 2016

trilljester posted:

Yeah but let's go Niners

Go niners establish the run.

MakaVillian
Aug 16, 2003

Well, in Whoville they say - that his tiny hands grew three sizes that day.

trilljester posted:

Yeah but let's go Niners

Of course

:schotty:

Gonz
Dec 22, 2009

"Jesus, did I say that? Or just think it? Was I talking? Did they hear me?"
The Lions and the Niners both love establishing the Run.

Should be a good game.

Go Lions.

Coldforge
Oct 29, 2002

I knew it would be bad.
I didn't know it would be so stupid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VPtY4ffLVA

This is hilarious and pretty representative.

Papercut
Aug 24, 2005

Coldforge posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VPtY4ffLVA

This is hilarious and pretty representative.

Lol this is so pathetic. These guys always ignore the fact that if Purdy is playing a good game, the Niners almost certainly don't *need* a 4th quarter comeback.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Ornery and Hornery posted:

There’s definitely some truth to that. Niners points per offensive play was the best in the nfl this year, 2023, with Brock Purdy.

Points per play in da Jimmy G Era:
  • 2019: 2nd best in nfl
  • 2021: 13th
  • 2022: 4th

Notably, Niners scored more points per play in 2019 (0.475) than in 2023 (0.473).

That 2019 team was amazing. The O-line was dominant, we ran all over everyone and Jimmy had all the time in the world. Would have won the Super Bowl if the talent gab between Jimmy and Mahomes wasn't the breadth of the Valles Marineris.

Coldforge
Oct 29, 2002

I knew it would be bad.
I didn't know it would be so stupid.

Vox Nihili posted:

That 2019 team was amazing. The O-line was dominant, we ran all over everyone and Jimmy had all the time in the world. Would have won the Super Bowl if the talent gab between Jimmy and Mahomes wasn't the breadth of the Valles Marineris.

That was the season Staley broke his leg and was out until the playoffs, McGlinchey was out for several games, and they were constantly juggling backups. :confused: The protection was middling at best without Staley there, they relied hugely on Jimmy's quick release for large stretches.

For sure though, Jimmy melting down at the end of the Super Bowl was the dagger :smith: Did Jimmy's rapid decline just wipe out everything he did in people's minds?

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Mustached Demon
Nov 12, 2016

Coldforge posted:

That was the season Staley broke his leg and was out until the playoffs, McGlinchey was out for several games, and they were constantly juggling backups. :confused: The protection was middling at best without Staley there, they relied hugely on Jimmy's quick release for large stretches.

For sure though, Jimmy melting down at the end of the Super Bowl was the dagger :smith: Did Jimmy's rapid decline just wipe out everything he did in people's minds?

Pretty sure he bonked his head late that SB and turned into trash.

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