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Edgar Allen Ho posted:I only have anecdotes not statistics- This pretty much describes my experience with MAGA culture as well.
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Jan 24, 2024 02:32
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So what's up exactly with the Nevada caucus and Haley not being on it? NBC keeps alluding to something weird happening there but isn't really going into any details
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Jan 24, 2024 02:37
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ninjahedgehog posted:So what's up exactly with the Nevada caucus and Haley not being on it? NBC keeps alluding to something weird happening there but isn't really going into any details Nevada switched from a caucus to primary but the GOP got mad and somehow that ended up with them running a primary AND caucus but candidates can only compete in one of them. And Haley picked the primary even though the delegates are determined by the caucus. Presumably her strategy is that it will all be such a confusing mess that a primary win for her will be worth more than being beat by Trump in the caucus. But it’s all very dumb. I’m sure someone else can explain it better or fix my mistakes.
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Jan 24, 2024 02:45
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STAC Goat posted:Nevada switched from a caucus to primary but the GOP got mad and somehow that ended up with them running a primary AND caucus but candidates can only compete in one of them. And Haley picked the primary even though the delegates are determined by the caucus. Presumably her strategy is that it will all be such a confusing mess that a primary win for her will be worth more than being beat by Trump in the caucus. But it’s all very dumb. It's probably the smartest possible move. In 2008 and 2016 it was successful in muddying the gently caress out of the waters in the few states that had both and then had two different winners. Since the GOP is primarily winner takes allish anyway, might as well go for the empty media win.
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Jan 24, 2024 02:52
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Yeah I mean you could say she should be pursuing the delegates but as you said it’s winner takes all. So nothing is accomplished losing to Trump again. Might as well take advantage of the mess someone else created and salvage what you can out of it.
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Jan 24, 2024 02:56
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How long do people think she'll remain in the race?
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Jan 24, 2024 03:02
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Leon Sumbitches posted:How long do people think she'll remain in the race? As long as someone's willing to give her money.
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Jan 24, 2024 03:23
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Leon Sumbitches posted:How long do people think she'll remain in the race? How soon do you think Carly Fiorina can show up for Haley to drop her through a vaudeville floor trap? That's been The Sign before
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Jan 24, 2024 03:25
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Leon Sumbitches posted:How long do people think she'll remain in the race? I mean her only shot at relevancy for the next few years is somehow to maintain enough momentum that Trump is forced to offer her something to maintain a coalition moving into the general (this is very much BEFORE TIMES thinking about party politics that is divorced from the reality of the current GOP). The reality is that she has no shot in the VEEP-stakes and Trump is going to pick Elise Stefanik, Kristi Noem, or Tim Scott and Haley basically blew her shot making a lesser version of the error that DeSantis made. The only one of the lot that made a smart bet was Chris Christi, who will ride back in for 2028 if Trump loses on the “I told you so” ticket. If Trump wins there probably just won’t be a 2028 (or at least one that maps onto elections as we’ve known them).
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Jan 24, 2024 03:32
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Do we want her to remain in the race as long as possible? I guess I would think so. Or maybe it just doesn’t matter a bit.
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Jan 24, 2024 03:34
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If I were her I'd stay in until Trump gets 50% of the delegates just in case he dies or something. There's no chance of him offering her anything to drop out because she's no threat, so the only reason for her to drop out and endorse him is if she decides to pivot to a Senate run or something but that'd be a long shot anyway because she's been out of politics for so long except for this losing run.
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Jan 24, 2024 03:38
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Leon Sumbitches posted:How long do people think she'll remain in the race? I'd say at least until Super Tuesday, depending on how SCOTUS deals with the ballot challenges removing Trump. Both Colorado and Maine are in that mix.
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Jan 24, 2024 03:39
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Trump seemed very bitter in his speech that Haley isn’t dropping out and kissing the ring. So I wonder if that could kind of extend her viability. If he’s all salty and insecure about her even as he’s beating her that seems like it potentially makes her a bigger threat and effectively does for her what she’s unwilling to do with direct attacks. She can just be all southern passive aggressive about it. I mean she’s still gonna lose.
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Jan 24, 2024 03:46
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STAC Goat posted:Trump seemed very bitter in his speech that Haley isn’t dropping out and kissing the ring. So I wonder if that could kind of extend her viability. If he’s all salty and insecure about her even as he’s beating her that seems like it potentially makes her a bigger threat and effectively does for her what she’s unwilling to do with direct attacks. She can just be all southern passive aggressive about it. It's kind of unsurprising he'd be bitter and insecure. A woman is daring to run against him and not only didn't quit after losing NH but got within 10 points of him.
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Jan 24, 2024 03:49
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Anno posted:Do we want her to remain in the race as long as possible? I guess I would think so. Or maybe it just doesn’t matter a bit. I mean, might as well let them attack each other and show how unviable they are.
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Jan 24, 2024 04:00
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I assume the humiliation of Ron DeSantis has at least a few days left, but then we are probably going to need a new title for the thread.
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Jan 24, 2024 04:02
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Mooseontheloose posted:I mean, might as well let them attack each other and show how unviable they are. Yeah that was more or less my thought. Especially if he's going to behave like this.
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Jan 24, 2024 04:03
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Rigel posted:I assume the humiliation of Ron DeSantis has at least a few days left, but then we are probably going to need a new title for the thread. i mean i already came up with They Trained Him Ron As A Joke
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Jan 24, 2024 04:03
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Rigel posted:I assume the humiliation of Ron DeSantis has at least a few days left, but then we are probably going to need a new title for the thread. Ron Voyage
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Jan 24, 2024 06:16
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Has a primary for the challenging party been this narrow so early on? 2016 came to mind but O'Malley quit after Iowa.
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Jan 24, 2024 07:10
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I find it weird that it's not being reported that Nikky didn't exceed expectations. I could swear that that was the news that got Bush II in to the top job. Or maybe Obama? Someone went on to win after not losing. Maybe it was Clinton.
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Jan 24, 2024 07:28
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Budzilla posted:Has a primary for the challenging party been this narrow so early on? 2016 came to mind but O'Malley quit after Iowa. Trump is functionally running as the incumbent nominee.
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Jan 24, 2024 11:55
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Comstar posted:I find it weird that it's not being reported that Nikky didn't exceed expectations. I'm honestly not sure which race you're thinking of. W Bush won Iowa, but lost NH to McCain. McCain winning NH gave his chance some life for a brief moment before W went on to win most of the other states, so I don't think it was W. Obama won Iowa and then effectively tied Clinton in NH, but after his win in Iowa his chances skyrocketed, maybe it was Obama since being so close in NH proved his campaign had legs outside of Iowa. In 2004 Kerry won NH, 2008 McCain won NH, 2012 Romney won NH, and 2016 Trump won NH, so the eventual winner of the nomination all won in NH in those contests. 2016 Clinton lost NH, but had already won in Iowa, and I don't think there was much of a narrative about that since she was already the front runner. My best guess is you're thinking of Obama in 2008.
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Jan 24, 2024 13:46
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Angry_Ed posted:It's kind of unsurprising he'd be bitter and insecure. A woman is daring to run against him and not only didn't quit after losing NH but got within 10 points of him. She didn’t get within 10 she only got 43% vs. his 55% after the final counting. She got every possible endorsement and the voters did not give a poo poo
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Jan 24, 2024 13:52
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Yeah if Haley had gotten within single digits, it’s at least possible she could build some momentum, but losing by 12 in her best early state means she’s done unless Trump drops dead.
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Jan 24, 2024 14:08
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whydirt posted:Yeah if Haley had gotten within single digits, it’s at least possible she could build some momentum, but losing by 12 in her best early state means she’s done unless Trump drops dead. I expect Haley to stay in as long as possible to be that option if Trump dies or goes to jail. I still think that if Trump ends up convicted before the convention that they'll nominate someone else. I haven't looked that the dates for his myriad trials to know if one might actually finish before then or not though. Worst case for her is she sets up her run for 2028. I think she will try to stick it out through Super Tuesday, but if she gets absolutely clobbered in SC, that might be the end of her campaign.
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Jan 24, 2024 14:11
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43.5% would honestly be an impressive result, in isolation. Problem for Haley is that's in one of her most favorable states, after going all-in. She's unlikely to top this anywhere else, including her home state of South Carolina. The race is over, barring major surprises.
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Jan 24, 2024 14:40
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Budzilla posted:Has a primary for the challenging party been this narrow so early on? 2016 came to mind but O'Malley quit after Iowa. I mean it’s not like we’ve had many presidents try this right? https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/11/15/why-they-ran-again-00066579
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Jan 24, 2024 14:42
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STAC Goat posted:Trump seemed very bitter in his speech that Haley isn’t dropping out and kissing the ring. So I wonder if that could kind of extend her viability. If he’s all salty and insecure about her even as he’s beating her that seems like it potentially makes her a bigger threat and effectively does for her what she’s unwilling to do with direct attacks. She can just be all southern passive aggressive about it. It's sort of a worst-case version of the best-case scenario for Trump. He is clearly winning enough that he is going to win every primary, but he is pulling just over 50% even against Nikki Haley who is basically just a stand-in for an anti-Trump protest vote and she is refusing to drop out. So, he is in no danger of losing the race, but he is being disrespected by her refusal to kiss the ring and embarrassed that as a presumed nominee he is still only pulling a little more than 50% in what is essentially an uncontested primary. Looking weak, being embarrassed, and not having everyone kiss his rear end are Trump's least favorite things. It's basically the worst version of the best possible outcome (winning every primary) for him and it is clearly annoying him even if it isn't threatening him based on his speech last night.
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Jan 24, 2024 15:16
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All this winning sure will put ol donny trump in his place (I actually agree with the assessment though, super 100% a masterclass in how to sleepwalk through a primary in a way that makes you look weak but your party utterly impotent against that weakness)
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Jan 24, 2024 15:26
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:It's sort of a worst-case version of the best-case scenario for Trump. This post made me realize this has a lot of echoes of the 2016 Democratic primary. Exceptions are that Sanders actually won some states, but everyone knew it was going to be Clinton in the end. It turns out Sanders did so well because he was the defacto protest vote against Clinton. I expect Trump's chances in the general to have a lot of the same problems that Clinton had. Low enthusiasm and a lot of people staying home or switching sides because they can't stand the candidate.
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Jan 24, 2024 15:27
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On the flip side, there are tons of Trumpists who will absolutely stay home on election day if their big wet boy isn't on the ballot. I don't know which group is bigger.
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Jan 24, 2024 15:31
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If I’m Haley I’m sticking it out to the very end. There’s just so much that could happen. Trump could get COVID and die, he could found guilty and it actually matter, the Supreme Court could kick him off all the ballots, we could have a contested convention. I know A LOT of independents who like Haley or would vote for Haley because the others are old. Hell, my MAGA mother in Florida is going to vote for Haley because Desantis is too much of a wimp and Trump isn’t electable anymore.
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Jan 24, 2024 15:48
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Pillowpants posted:If I’m Haley I’m sticking it out to the very end. There’s just so much that could happen. Trump has already had the OG strain of Covid that was much deadlier, is vaccinated, and has access to very good healthcare. It's pretty unlikely that it would kill him. Statistically, it would much more likely be something with his heart. People also way overestimate the likelihood of death for both candidates. If you make it to 75, then the average person is going to live about 14 more years. I would guess that Biden and probably Trump will beat the average. Either way, the odds of Trump dropping dead in the next 5 months are incredibly low.
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Jan 24, 2024 16:01
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Bellmaker posted:She didn’t get within 10 she only got 43% vs. his 55% after the final counting. She got every possible endorsement and the voters did not give a poo poo Fair. At the time I posted that she was 8% off but counting hadn't finished.
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Jan 24, 2024 16:06
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:
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Jan 24, 2024 16:15
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She should just stay in to draw time, effort and resources away from his focus on the trials.
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Jan 24, 2024 16:21
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Leon Sumbitches posted:On the flip side, there are tons of Trumpists who will absolutely stay home on election day if their big wet boy isn't on the ballot. I don't know which group is bigger. Haley does much better against Biden than Trump in hypothetical match-ups, IIRC. However, I could see Trump outperforming her in the handful of Rust Belt swing states that have decided the last two elections. Could be a situation where Haley pulls in more votes than Trump, but not necessarily where it matters.
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Jan 24, 2024 16:21
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Phlegmish posted:Haley does much better against Biden than Trump in hypothetical match-ups, IIRC. However, I could see Trump outperforming her in the handful of Rust Belt swing states that have decided the last two elections. Could be a situation where Haley pulls in more votes than Trump, but not necessarily where it matters. agreed but i think that would be haley winning through out the primary and pulling the nomination. a more likely win for her now is if trump gets pinched right before the end and the party just says "gently caress it, haley won" trump and the chuds will cry judas and sit at home and haley will have to try to reach to the center while trying to get the chuds to vote for her. She needs both to win. she would get more moderates but not enough. for her to WIN, she would have to win the primary as the defacto lead.
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Jan 24, 2024 16:35
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Trump has already had the OG strain of Covid that was much deadlier, is vaccinated, and has access to very good healthcare. It's pretty unlikely that it would kill him. According to the Social Security Administration's actuarial table, 77-year-old Trump has a 4.9% chance of dying before the inauguration in one year, and 81-year-old Biden has a 7.1% chance. The odds of at least one of them dying before the inauguration is 11.8%. We can estimate about an 8% chance of one of them dying before the election. A low probability event, but not incredibly low. There is less chance of flipping a coin heads four times in a row than one of them dying before the election.
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Jan 24, 2024 16:50
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