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fatherboxx)
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If it was indeed PoWs on that plane instead of missles, I believe Ukraine will soon admit to that.TheRat posted:Wouldn't they move giant missiles by train? There are a variety S300 missiles, all of which can be air transported. And it is also one of those things that if you run out of you will want more quickly as possible. Dick Ripple fucked around with this message at 12:15 on Jan 24, 2024 |
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Jan 24, 2024 12:12
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Is that explosion big enough for it to have been carrying missiles?
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Jan 24, 2024 12:26
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Bashez posted:Is that explosion big enough for it to have been carrying missiles? Hard to say because a fuel explosion doesn't necessarily or even likely immediately detonate warheads on board. But I would guess that rocket fuel is a lot more volatile. The question is what missile parts were carried, if any. At any rate I doubt that the plane was carrying both missiles and passengers, that sounds just stupid.
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Jan 24, 2024 12:37
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Are PoWs usually transported by planes? I never really thought about it. I remember seeing them arriving to Ukraine/Russia on buses on multiple occasions, and the one time they arrived by a plane was from Turkey. But I guess maybe they're on a bus only for the final stretch.
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Jan 24, 2024 13:04
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jaete posted:Yeah it feels like some kind of good cop/bad cop act, with Medvedev as the bad cop. Though maybe it's more like crazy & turbo-insane. Or dumb & dumber Medvedev stinks of desperation (well, and booze...). The whole thing feels a whole "Notice me Sen-putin!" act
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Jan 24, 2024 13:18
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Ukraine confirms that there was a PoW exchange planned for today. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-hur-obmin-polonenymy/32789955.html quote:The exchange of prisoners between Russia and Ukraine was supposed to take place today, January 24, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Andriy Yusov, told Radio Svoboda.
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Jan 24, 2024 13:27
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Paladinus posted:Are PoWs usually transported by planes? I never really thought about it. I remember seeing them arriving to Ukraine/Russia on buses on multiple occasions, and the one time they arrived by a plane was from Turkey. But I guess maybe they're on a bus only for the final stretch. Here is former POW saying they were transported to Belgorod same way https://twitter.com/UCoSpaniel/status/1750092134240203162?t=aCSrO9Y5GcbCn7yvfqAvbw&s=19
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Jan 24, 2024 13:36
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Bloody 'ell, I hope that plane wasn't actually full of PoWs. Is there any confirmation about how the plane fell? Apparently there's video which points to maybe a missile but I don't know how reliable that is. Could it have been a malfunction?
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Jan 24, 2024 13:45
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jaete posted:Bloody 'ell, I hope that plane wasn't actually full of PoWs. Check a bit up the thread. You can see the object falling, and after a while the camera zooms out and you see what looks like a poof of smoke hanging in the air. I didn't see any smoke trail, but if it's the missile it might have impacted the front of the plane. fatherboxx posted:https://twitter.com/RuslanLeviev/status/1750086354439160243?t=58pkPFYFcxbi8ln0DgraWg&s=19
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Jan 24, 2024 13:50
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According to this the plane was coming from Syria. I don't think Russia keeps many POWs in Syria. https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.bsky.social/post/3kjpxrcymxn2a
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Jan 24, 2024 14:10
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Looks like there's some confusion going on with the lists of prisoners on the plane... https://twitter.com/Getty776/status/1750143408860192966?t=W8pRv5k6nTp_zByTI3Ji-Q&s=19
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Jan 24, 2024 14:40
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RT's editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan has posted a list of PoWs that were allegedly on board of the downed plane.  One of the soldiers on that list, Kostyantyn Danilchenko, is definitely a PoW, and there was an interview with him on Russian TV. If PoWs weren't on that plane and are still alive, I'm not sure what they're going to do with them now. E: Beaten, and apparently there are discrepancies. Still, not clear what would be the plan here with publishing a list like that. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 14:45 on Jan 24, 2024 |
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Jan 24, 2024 14:41
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My scared gut feeling is yeah it was a planeload of PoWs and Russia either forgot to mention the flight was coming, or they did and a jittery SAM battery commander fired at it in any case.
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Jan 24, 2024 14:45
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I mean Russia lies all the time about this sort of stuff. There's no more credibility here than when they swore that Prigozhin blew himself up with a hand grenade while snorting cocaine. The only thing that is clear is that Russia wants to change the narrative about the spate of successful Ukrainian anti-air strikes. Only time will tell what really happened.
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Jan 24, 2024 14:51
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Paladinus posted:
What was the plan with claiming a ten year old girl they killed was an elite French mercenary?
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Jan 24, 2024 14:55
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OddObserver posted:What was the plan with claiming a ten year old girl they killed was an elite French mercenary? Vague lies like that (actually, the hotel was a secret nazi command centre) are what they prefer. Russia doesn't provide any evidence in those cases, just makes unfalsifiable sweeping statements. Here, they provide a list that is fairly easy to cross-reference. Like, if anyone on the list is still in Russia, they probably won't be able to exchange them later without explicitly admitting to have lied. It's a very different type of lie.
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Jan 24, 2024 15:03
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I just don't feel there is any downside to them for lying either way. Remember the big lies like "no Russian troops in Donbass" and "no Russia troops in Crimea?". What's the downside of them being verifiably false?
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Jan 24, 2024 15:09
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OddObserver posted:What was the plan with claiming a ten year old girl they killed was an elite French mercenary? Uh... French mercs are pedos? It's not very fruitful trying to figure out the disinformation that is constantly spewed from Russian propaganda outlets. They can make up a dozen new lies in the time that it takes for us to reveal the bullshit. It's exhausting and that is the point. I really don't know what Ukrainians are basing their claim on the plane's cargo, either. It sounds suspicious until some sort of evidence is presented... Paladinus posted:Vague lies like that (actually, the hotel was a secret nazi command centre) are what they prefer. Russia doesn't provide any evidence in those cases, just makes unfalsifiable sweeping statements. Here, they provide a list that is fairly easy to cross-reference. Like, if anyone on the list is still in Russia, they probably won't be able to exchange them later without explicitly admitting to have lied. It's a very different type of lie. However if a bunch of pows had died in prison it would be a great way to cover your tracks 
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Jan 24, 2024 15:13
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Nenonen posted:However if a bunch of pows had died in prison it would be a great way to cover your tracks I was actually thinking about that. Wouldn't be too dissimilar to what happened in Olenivka in 2022. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olenivka_prison_massacre Another, maybe even wilder scenario is that there were PoWs on that plane, and Russia somehow leaked it to Ukraine that the plane was actually carrying missiles to provoke Ukraine into attacking their own soldiers.
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Jan 24, 2024 15:20
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Paladinus posted:I was actually thinking about that. Wouldn't be too dissimilar to what happened in Olenivka in 2022. They got a lot of Il-76, but I don't know if they'd intentionally sacrifice one for some weird psyop. I also don't think they care enough to cover up abuses to stage some sort of crash to cover up abuses. Someone hosed up here, either a pilot with a plane full of ammo, or some Ukrainian military communications breakdown or itchy trigger finger SAM operator.
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Jan 24, 2024 15:35
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ummel posted:They got a lot of Il-76, but I don't know if they'd intentionally sacrifice one for some weird psyop. I also don't think they care enough to cover up abuses to stage some sort of crash to cover up abuses. Someone hosed up here, either a pilot with a plane full of ammo, or some Ukrainian military communications breakdown or itchy trigger finger SAM operator. Isn't that the plane that they have single-digit numbers of and can't make more on a relevant timeline? Or is that a distinct plane that's named Il-Numbernumber and I'm bad at plane names?
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Jan 24, 2024 15:38
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ummel posted:They got a lot of Il-76, but I don't know if they'd intentionally sacrifice one for some weird psyop. I also don't think they care enough to cover up abuses to stage some sort of crash to cover up abuses. Someone hosed up here, either a pilot with a plane full of ammo, or some Ukrainian military communications breakdown or itchy trigger finger SAM operator. Absolutely, it's strictly in the realm of conspiratorial thinking, the more obvious versions are the most plausible ones right now. It will become clearer when more evidence surfaces.
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Jan 24, 2024 15:42
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Xiahou Dun posted:Isn't that the plane that they have single-digit numbers of and can't make more on a relevant timeline? Or is that a distinct plane that's named Il-Numbernumber and I'm bad at plane names? I think you're thinking of IL-22. The airborne command plane. IL-76s are transport planes IIRC
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Jan 24, 2024 15:49
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Nervous posted:I think you're thinking of IL-22. The airborne command plane. IL-76s are transport planes IIRC Ah, thank you.
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Jan 24, 2024 15:50
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Xiahou Dun posted:Ah, thank you. No problem. I am no expert on these, anyone please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
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Jan 24, 2024 15:53
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Nenonen posted:It's not very fruitful trying to figure out the disinformation that is constantly spewed from Russian propaganda outlets. They can make up a dozen new lies in the time that it takes for us to reveal the bullshit. It's exhausting and that is the point. This has been mentioned before, but still bears repeating. The strategy behind "flood the zone with poo poo" misinformation campaigns is not for the misinformation to be believed, or even sound plausible. Inevitably with a large enough sample of people there will be some suckers who buy it, but that is a bonus, not the core objective. The source of the misinformation will put out many different versions of events, most of which will be mutually exclusive to each other. The goal is to put out bullshit faster then it can possibly be debunked and to make learning the objective truth seems so tiring and impossible that people just give up. For an authoritarian state, apathy is nearly as good as people believing your bullshit and far easier to achieve.
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Jan 24, 2024 17:00
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https://youtu.be/DeB8x9ljGwE?si=VGFUxYip3fGuScKp If the plane was flying away from Belgorod, then its not likely Ukrainian prisoners or AA missiles were aboard. Groggy nard fucked around with this message at 17:54 on Jan 24, 2024 |
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Jan 24, 2024 17:51
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Groggy nard posted:https://youtu.be/DeB8x9ljGwE?si=VGFUxYip3fGuScKp Didn’t watch the video, not to play devil’s advocate here, but the plane could have been on approach toward a runway which would require it to landed in very specific direction, passenger or cargo planes can span hundreds of mile in extremely wide circle to approach landing strips at the right angle and position. RoyKeen posted:But I still want to talk about the death of people..... gently caress off, I just made a single comment in response why a plane might be flying in a particular direction. Back Hack fucked around with this message at 19:45 on Jan 24, 2024 |
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Jan 24, 2024 18:04
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Back Hack posted:Didn’t watch the video Well done. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 24, 2024 18:10
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Groggy nard posted:Well done. I don't want to watch a video analyzing the death of people that happened only a handful of hours ago where the context isn't entirely clear yet.
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Jan 24, 2024 18:21
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Back Hack posted:I don't want to watch a video analyzing the death of people that happened only a handful of hours ago where the context isn't entirely clear yet. But I still want to talk about the death of people..... (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 24, 2024 18:41
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I heard a Dutch reporter say yesterday that it seemed that the impact location on the plane was on the East side, suggesting a Russian friendly fire incident.
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Jan 25, 2024 06:39
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https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1750282059103207828 yeah, zelensky's tone kind of implies there was a big fuckup somewhere along the line
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Jan 25, 2024 07:34
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Back Hack posted:I don't want to watch a video analyzing the death of people that happened only a handful of hours ago where the context isn't entirely clear yet. I just dont see a way to meaningfully engage with you if you completely ignore the information presented, which would easily answer most of the things you posted. Lilely my own failings, I am certain  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Groggy nard fucked around with this message at 08:20 on Jan 25, 2024 |
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Jan 25, 2024 08:18
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1750516090134781965?t=rEG8pBiZq3CSwDV3aF-rdA&s=19 To the surprise of no one, suicide squad deals got worse after lots of local media reports of ex-cons commiting crimes again after 6 month tours. Putin doesn't sign pardons anymore and contracts just get renewed until the war is over.
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Jan 25, 2024 16:02
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A roundup of relevant recent articles. Context for the attacks on oil refineries. https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91473?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social quote:The two refineries attacked by Ukraine in January are export-oriented, and do not play a major role in the domestic market. However, if small drones with no more than 5 kilograms of explosives managed to reach Ust-Luga, which is 620 miles from Ukrainian territory, this means there are a total of eighteen Russian refineries with a combined capacity of 3.5 million barrels per day (more than half the Russian total) that are possible targets. A rather gloomy report on the gap between what Europe is doing, and what is necessary. https://ecfr.eu/publication/beyond-the-counter-offensive-attrition-stalemate-and-the-future-of-the-war-in-ukraine/#about-the-author quote:Unfortunately, Putin has a viable theory of victory in this war. While another effort to take the Ukrainian capital in a swift campaign is out of reach, eroding Western support for Ukraine is not. Time and again, Putin stresses Kyiv’s dependence on Western support, both economic and military. He often expresses his confidence that Russian endurance will triumph over the West. To exhaust Western willingness to support Ukraine, the Russian offensives do not necessarily have to conquer more Ukrainian territory. But they do need to put pressure on Kyiv by imposing manpower and materiel losses that Western sources will have difficulty making up. Unsurprisingly, Putin shows no interest in (serious) negotiations. Time and again, the Kremlin has said it will only negotiate if Moscow’s maximalist conditions are fulfilled. Moreover, the negotiations that are proposed are negotiations with the West, not Kyiv. In other words, until Moscow attains its goals one way or another, the war will continue. A more optimistic overview by Lee, Kofman and Massicot. https://warontherocks.com/2024/01/hold-build-and-strike-a-vision-for-rebuilding-ukraines-advantage-in-2024/ quote:A defeat would see Moscow impose its will on Ukraine and walk away from the war believing that it had effectively exhausted and defeated the West. Despite the strategic cost to Russia, Ukraine would lose territory and would bear a higher burden for the war in population and economic losses. While Russia will pose an enduring military threat to European security in either scenario, a Russia that suffers a costly defeat is clearly preferable to an emboldened Moscow that is able to recover without having to worry about Ukraine’s armed forces.
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Jan 26, 2024 17:45
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Paladinus posted:RT's editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan has posted a list of PoWs that were allegedly on board of the downed plane. Guys mostly born in the 70s and 80s being the majority paints that recruiting shortage in a real light, especially if these are the frontline soldiers who’d make up the majority of pows. For reference the average age of US troops in Iraq was 33, but due to the natural age skew, over 70% killed were in their 20s. The olds were mostly in senior positions or support roles in safe regions, not kicking in doors or manning dangerous outposts.
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Jan 26, 2024 17:58
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Yeah, Ukraine will probably take a beating this year. I guess we'll see if mobilization becomes a necessity but Avdivvka is looking rough with Russia's artillery advantage.
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Jan 26, 2024 17:58
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Guys mostly born in the 70s and 80s being the majority paints that recruiting shortage in a real light, especially if these are the frontline soldiers who’d make up the majority of pows. Ukraine specifically chose to mobilise mostly older men. It is not because they've already run out of younger men. People under 27 literally can't be mobilised against their will, and the recent controversial bill proposes to lower that age limit to 25.
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Jan 26, 2024 18:10
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| # ? Jun 3, 2024 06:27 |
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Guys mostly born in the 70s and 80s being the majority paints that recruiting shortage in a real light, especially if these are the frontline soldiers who’d make up the majority of pows.
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Jan 26, 2024 18:11
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