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BearsBearsBears posted:https://twitter.com/upholdreality/status/1749742824361239003 well folks they know how to entrench and dont panic under bombardment thats 90% of the US's advantage gone right there
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Jan 25, 2024 07:52
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FirstnameLastname posted:i think ww3 is already over lol End result of an individualistic low trust society with no shared values where fast life strategies dominate. Someone is going "so how do you fix it?" lol you don't. DancingShade has issued a correction as of 07:55 on Jan 25, 2024 |
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Jan 25, 2024 07:52
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There is still plenty of gaslighting to be had, but yeah the West has already spent a lot of its load munition-wise, for not accomplishing very much and the even the Houthis don't really seem to be able to be dealt with. I don't think the West has in it for an apocalyptic war either, but that doesn't mean they are going to keep on trying to pull the same crap they have in the past.
Ardennes has issued a correction as of 08:09 on Jan 25, 2024 |
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Jan 25, 2024 07:55
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DancingShade posted:End result of an individualistic low trust society with no shared values where fast life strategies dominate. yep doomed to fail by choosing the wrong choices forever by virtue of the material collectivism state always choosing the correct ones bc Marx was in fact right after all cannot be sustained over time its just a win-win and this is going extinct like feudalism
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Jan 25, 2024 07:56
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Unfortunately some of the nukes will still function
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Jan 25, 2024 07:57
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Ardennes posted:There is still plenty of gaslighting to be had, but yeah the West has already a lot of its load munition-wise, for not accomplishing very much and the even the Houthis don't really seem to be able to be dealt with. I don't think the West has in it for an apocalyptic war either, but that doesn't mean they are going to keep on trying to pull the same crap they have in the past. the west's primary capability in both war and the imperial peace is and has always been killing just an absolute boatload of innocent people accidentally on purpose i imagine theyll keep doing that until someone makes them stop or they materially cant, but the end of that is coming i think
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Jan 25, 2024 08:03
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Slavvy posted:Unfortunately some of the nukes will still function I bet they've got copper wire in them.
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Jan 25, 2024 08:03
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I think the US will accept the 2nd seat until one day PRC announce they have stockpiled more nuke than the US. Americans have more militant culture than the British. The road is still ahead.
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Jan 25, 2024 08:07
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Slavvy posted:Unfortunately some of the nukes will still function they will lose all institutional knowledge to keep them together before long because they can't afford enough brains that are smart enough lol there's not enough time to automate everything
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Jan 25, 2024 08:10
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People are getting blown up by bombs and cruise missiles right now, it's just pure cope to think the west's weapons will just crumble to dust and everything will be great. It's going to be an absolute bloodbath. But western hegemony already is an absolute bloodbath so it's not really worse in that sense.
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Jan 25, 2024 08:14
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The Oldest Man posted:the west's primary capability in both war and the imperial peace is and has always been killing just an absolute boatload of innocent people accidentally on purpose The key is killing the people profitably war of aggression has to get stuff for it you have to get a high reward per troop dead , It's gotten higher and higher, tolerance for deaths deceases, they cannot pay them enough for it to go up enough to have enough people fighting there's not gonna be enough number to go around lol i think it's cooked honestly, they can't make enough of anything can't man enough constantly having to cut crew sizes optimal ships The grift speeds it up lol It can't be saved
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Jan 25, 2024 08:14
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FirstnameLastname posted:they will lose all institutional knowledge to keep them together before long because they can't afford enough brains that are smart enough lol If you were smart enough to redesign a nuclear stockpile then you're also smart enough to go into finance and make / steal a shitload of money off securities et al. How's that theoretical person's committment to the nation versus their personal bank account? Hmm, decisions, decisions. I'm thinking of that scene from Margin Call where the finance maths guy reveals his credentials are "literal rocket scientist" but he prefers the renumeration he makes with the firm. DancingShade has issued a correction as of 08:19 on Jan 25, 2024 |
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Jan 25, 2024 08:16
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The Oldest Man posted:the west's primary capability in both war and the imperial peace is and has always been killing just an absolute boatload of innocent people accidentally on purpose The borders of the empire will continue to shrink. Back in the 20th century, you could look at a map of colonial spheres, aligned versus non-aligned. it is just things are a little more blurry now, but nevertheless, the West's power is shrinking. A "traditional" world war 3 would either be nukes (which obviously the Russians and the Chinese would probably "win" in terms of raw damage) or conventional warfare; in both cases, the West is probably going to be on the losing end, so it doesn't really provide much incentive. The question is where the West would still have an advantage, and that is probably in the media/political realm of continuing to gaslight populations and force coups, color revolutions, etcs. Otherwise, economically, things aren't working out well, nor has it technologically. Biologically weapons uhhh...have already been tried. Otherwise, it sounds like there is also a plan developing to "overwhelm" with numbers, including trying to brute-force birthrates.
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Jan 25, 2024 08:17
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Ardennes posted:The borders of the empire will continue to shrink. Back in the 20th century, you could look at a map of colonial spheres, aligned versus non-aligned. it is just things are a little more blurry now, but nevertheless, the West's power is shrinking. I don't think it's going to be as cut and dry as a "welp guess we're a fading imperial power, time to do The End War" scenario. I think it's going to look more like the Gaza/Yemen situation, repeated over and over again, as vassals peel away or are peeled away, the empire sends in some planes or ships and at first does some highly moral "targeted strikes" against some entrenched soldiers that accomplish nothing and subsequently turns to "well i guess they asked for it" tactics and does some deniable collateral damage bombing to demolish life-sustaining infrastructure and/or has the local proxy army or death squads start racking up the body count. Some of those theaters will look conventional (Russia invading Ukraine), at least in part, otherwise will look wholly genocidal (Gaza), others will drag on and on like the civil war in Yemen and change their character over time. The only common thread is the hegemon and remaining vassals expending material at unsustainable rates while the unofficial borders of the dominion shrink and the economy turns into a corn-cob. Trump running on the slogan "make america great again" is a direct, domestic acknowledgement that the zenith of the empire is passed and from here on its a bloody slog down into senescence. So I think we're mostly saying the same things here, just my point is an ocean of blood, mostly from noncombatant civilians and kids, is going to get spilled in that series of conflicts though I doubt there will be any trench lines across continents or nuclear exchanges.
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Jan 25, 2024 08:26
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There are going to be more proxy wars, but I think the West will limited by the arms they can send into them, in a fairly direct sense. Ukraine/Gaza/Yemen are all showing pretty alarming restraints on munitions and the West doesn't have it in for a re-industrialization. I guess the West has access to ton of small-arms ammo and light vehicles... The "jig" isn't up but it is going to clearly restrain what is going to be possible. I don't think they could just another Ukraine-style conflict, and I think there would need to be a build up even for a Gaza-style bombing campaign. Otherwise, the USN is slowly bleeding munitions in the Red Sea. The West isn't ready for a real conflict over Taiwan, and at best, the US may put bases on the Philippines. The US isn't out of the game but is starting to search through its pockets for spare change. The question is when WW3 will start, but when it started. (I think there is a strong case for 2014.) Ardennes has issued a correction as of 08:52 on Jan 25, 2024 |
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Jan 25, 2024 08:34
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It won't be anything dramatic. Just like a slowly dying club where less members turn up every month. We've all seen those (probably?). I just hope we manage to keep the sacred burgers and southern fried chicken. Done right, all groumet, that stuff is great.
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Jan 25, 2024 08:43
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DancingShade posted:It won't be anything dramatic. Just like a slowly dying club where less members turn up every month. We've all seen those (probably?). we’re posting in one right now
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Jan 25, 2024 08:51
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Thing about Taiwan is, Beijing is largely in the drivers seat when they decide to push the issue, it might take longer than you think. But the process has slowly started in the trading realm. Last time I read an interview with the Hezbollah boss, I got the sense that they are waiting for bigger external change before they start a proper conflict with Israel.
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Jan 25, 2024 08:51
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fart simpson posted:we’re posting in one right now Would you bet on Somethingawful winning a war against the rest of the internet?
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Jan 25, 2024 08:53
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Ardennes posted:Would you bet on Somethingawful winning a war against the rest of the internet? Under current management... yes. If I was actually a gambling person. SA seems a lot more stable now than the last decade thats for sure.
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Jan 25, 2024 08:58
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Ardennes posted:Would you bet on Somethingawful winning a war against the rest of the internet? we're definitely outlasting twitter, compared to elon jeffrey's significantly less likely to have his heart explode from a combination of ketamine, steroids, and european diet pills
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Jan 25, 2024 09:04
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Somethingawful will definitely outlast reddit, I will give it another 5-10 years before decline.
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Jan 25, 2024 09:06
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DancingShade posted:It won't be anything dramatic. Just like a slowly dying club where less members turn up every month. We've all seen those (probably?). Yeah, look at the British Empire: there was no single dramatic moment when everything collapsed at once; it happened very gradually, over decades. And just like you rarely notice yourself aging, there's a lot of (especially older) Brits who've never properly internalised the fact that Britain is no longer a great power. If you looked at our British media for example, you could be forgiven for thinking that Britannia still rules the waves and that we're decisively intervening around the world. I can easily imagine eg the US armed forces still maintaining their global regional combat commands, long after they've lost any ability to project force in many of them.
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Jan 25, 2024 09:10
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The US president grandly bestowing the ceremonial honour of Chief of South Asian Combat Command on a loyal subordinate, along with a shiny medallion and a hat.
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Jan 25, 2024 09:12
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Pistol_Pete posted:Yeah, look at the British Empire: there was no single dramatic moment when everything collapsed at once; it happened very gradually, over decades. And just like you rarely notice yourself aging, there's a lot of (especially older) Brits who've never properly internalised the fact that Britain is no longer a great power. If you looked at our British media for example, you could be forgiven for thinking that Britannia still rules the waves and that we're decisively intervening around the world. I could see the US easily keeping fleets of rusting ships around with marginal usefulness just to say that they have them. If anything the hit may be harder than the one the Russians took during the 1990s because at least the Russians had state industries that were still operating at marginal levels. Otherwise, yeah, it will probably be very Britain-like, with probably even more severe regional splits and worse infrastructure. That said, Britain itself is even more screwed now because it is a lamprey on a beached whale.
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Jan 25, 2024 09:16
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Pistol_Pete posted:Yeah, look at the British Empire: there was no single dramatic moment when everything collapsed at once; it happened very gradually, over decades. And just like you rarely notice yourself aging, there's a lot of (especially older) Brits who've never properly internalised the fact that Britain is no longer a great power. If you looked at our British media for example, you could be forgiven for thinking that Britannia still rules the waves and that we're decisively intervening around the world. To quote another poster, our soft landing is becoming the aging UK
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Jan 25, 2024 09:21
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Ardennes posted:There are going to be more proxy wars, but I think the West will limited by the arms they can send into them, in a fairly direct sense. Ukraine/Gaza/Yemen are all showing pretty alarming restraints on munitions and the West doesn't have it in for a re-industrialization. I guess the West has access to ton of small-arms ammo and light vehicles... i fr don't think the west is capable of turning the intensity of combat up much more, at all like people are looking at it like it's not at capacity it just about is I think it's beyond capacity for any war with China, I think all of the empty space is taken up by capital people aren't seeing how big that number is next to everything it's huuugehow much tax dollar already goes to the military they can't sustainably do much more and anything they do will speed things up, i think It's choked out, war would have to be funded by China lol like think of how America would fight a war at war with China right now how would our economy stay afloat how would Europe's It can't do it It can't even beat Russia, can't even beat Yemen there's not much in society to pull stuff out of that people will tolerate imo oct 7th was the killing blow It locked the west down in two extra unprepared conflicts that it can't win in the long run even if it did win militarily it wasn't ready for while losing the first and unable to save any of them I don't think they can push the grift war machine any faster I don't think the state is able to remove the grifters i think they massively miscalculated and choked the whole war thing dry before they could start getting ahead and now they can't at all ever I don't think they can do it, they were overly confident and overextended at the wrong moment and now by the time they're free of those drains it'll be too late and they're just won't be enough sources of profit to keep all the things that need to keep the thing going as conditions decrease they probably actually only kept enough ammo to defend against China attacking - they can't go to war against China and China's not going to start a war, It's just going to cruise past america & the west and capitalism will collapse on its own, unable to pull anything else down with it & i don't think it'll take as long as people might be expecting this entire society and worldview is pure hubris lol nobody's going to see it coming It's like they didn't see 08 or great depression or whatever
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Jan 25, 2024 09:46
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nuclear armageddon isn’t very good for number. America is good at reframing defeat as victory (something their heroes the nazis also did) so it’s possible a declining empire will see more of a PR rebranding campaign rather than desperate last stands at colonial outposts. We didn’t even want to occupy that country we’re just saving money closing those bases (ala Trump)! Unless America manages to fix at least part of its arms industry it’s not going to even be bombing weddings. It’s not like America has any borders to defend and unlike tiny lovely England continental America has no shortage of space or resources. The American elite aren’t going to ride a nuke down Slim Pickens style. They might huff about it but they can remain rich and powerful at home.
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Jan 25, 2024 10:01
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zetamind2000 posted:we're definitely outlasting twitter, compared to elon jeffrey's significantly less likely to have his heart explode from a combination of ketamine, steroids, and european diet pills nah it's elon living that will kill (is killing) twitter
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Jan 25, 2024 10:05
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FuzzySlippers posted:nuclear armageddon isn’t very good for number. America is good at reframing defeat as victory (something their heroes the nazis also did) so it’s possible a declining empire will see more of a PR rebranding campaign rather than desperate last stands at colonial outposts. We didn’t even want to occupy that country we’re just saving money closing those bases (ala Trump)! I would say the breaking point will probably be the USD, that the American elite isn't going to cut back from their "lifestyle" but the USD is really the only thing holding the nation together. Otherwise, why wouldn't Texas, Alaska, or the West Coast just go their own way if they are looking to attract Yuan or sell their resources directly? Otherwise, there will only be greater spin, gaslighting, and attempts to squeeze the population (while trying to maximize birthrates and access to cheap labor). But yeah, the US government is only going to be spending more money to buy even more expensive (and gradually obsolete or ineffective) weapons because that is how people make money. It is just yields on US bonds are going to only get higher as more and more pressure is placed on the USD.
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Jan 25, 2024 10:08
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FuzzySlippers posted:nuclear armageddon isn’t very good for number. America is good at reframing defeat as victory (something their heroes the nazis also did) so it’s possible a declining empire will see more of a PR rebranding campaign rather than desperate last stands at colonial outposts. We didn’t even want to occupy that country we’re just saving money closing those bases (ala Trump)! that's a pretend military you can't turn it into a real one against real competition unless they take their foot off the gas China would have to let America catch up again I think America cannot tool up anything faster than China can right now nothing in the world that matters in a war America forgot competition existed all the people who really remember what that's like are dead and their failsons don't read books and learned with Ukraine what real War and not fighting insurgent and guerilla armies and massively out advantaged enemies cod and saving Private Ryan so they figured America just makes cool stuff and it's badass and so it can just do that cuz the numbers big they don't recognize what the country benefits from and what rich people benefit from aren't the same how do they fix a problem they ideologically cannot see as institutions? they can't do it lol. they will not notice fast enough If they were capable of that they wouldn't have done this
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Jan 25, 2024 10:12
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America continues to look awfully impotent against Yemen. If they never manage to turn up the heat then I don’t think China has to worry about America even trying to defend Taiwan.
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Jan 25, 2024 10:14
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FuzzySlippers posted:America continues to look awfully impotent against Yemen. If they never manage to turn up the heat then I don’t think China has to worry about America even trying to defend Taiwan. they are waiting for taiwan to apologize and ask to come back to the right team i bet they wanna show China is supposed to be at the top of the list and can accomplish it without a war not because China is the best it has the most people that's the point of the entire competing ideological system and that ideology is why they aren't loving up and going to war and getting bogged down in terrorist poo poo or doin a genocide, their growth is actual growth, sooner or later people will notice and once they move that direction like whatll stop it lol the west cant offer as good of a deal to anyone and once any country switches over to any socialist govt without being isolated or interfered with and stuff gets better than it was there too it'll be quick imo china could probably buy out all of capitalism in like 20yr, the ideology behind it fundamentally cannot compete fairly at scale once china is entirely caught up it is just a better system and this is gonna be with feudalism soon FirstnameLastname has issued a correction as of 10:43 on Jan 25, 2024 |
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Jan 25, 2024 10:31
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Ardennes posted:I would say the breaking point will probably be the USD, that the American elite isn't going to cut back from their "lifestyle" but the USD is really the only thing holding the nation together. Otherwise, why wouldn't Texas, Alaska, or the West Coast just go their own way if they are looking to attract Yuan or sell their resources directly? How much does the global facing multinational corporation running elite really depend on the USD? How much of their lifestyle actually depends on it? I’m not sure myself, but it feels like it’s easy to assume more interdependence than existed in the 20th century. They definitely climbed to the top on the strength of the USD, but maybe like a CEO using their golden parachute to flee a failing company they can cruise on even as the country crumbles. America is just another consumer market in a world overflowing with them now. They have an ideological commitment to American supremacy but not necessarily a durable one. If a war suddenly feels real to them maybe they blink and shrug. The future of empire could be insourcing. The coastal states stay in a looser union where they extract value out of fly over states to help stabilize their economies. This is already occurring to a degree. They just need enough resources to play MIC/stimulus/subsidy grab rear end it doesn’t really matter in the abstract how well everything is doing. QoL is plummeting in the US already but it’s not affecting anyone who matters to decision makers.
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Jan 25, 2024 10:37
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FuzzySlippers posted:How much does the global facing multinational corporation running elite really depend on the USD? How much of their lifestyle actually depends on it? I want to say "a lot" because they aren't inherantly profitable for the most part, just inheritor rent-seekers leeching off the ever lasting money printer. Regular grants, external cash injections etc. If they had to produce and sell whatever based on the actual market versus government handouts and slush contracts I mean, you'd see a different landscape.
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Jan 25, 2024 10:41
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Most American corporations feed off of USD: the MIC, health care, education, finance, and the overall consumer economy. They have overseas interests, but they are if anything, experiencing even more competition abroad and will clearly be weakened without a domestic home market (this is happening to Japan). Most American interests in China for example, are often majority own by the Chinese, and American corporations got pushed out of Russia and that is just the beginning. Also, coastal states looking for cheap labor isn't really a reason to keep the current system going, especially if they are desperate to gain more valuable Yuan. If anything, it makes more sense for them to be independent middle men. The MIC giftting/subsidies/printing isn't infinite because, at the end of the day it comes from one source. If even more needs to be pulled from that ever year (and will accelerate with the SS trust fund giving up the ghost) the US is going to require higher yields, and higher gas prices will lead to higher yields, bailouts will lead to higher yields etc. The US can even really produce cheap labor that is that competitive just based on the infrastructure and the costs of it, the fact that Americans are rapidly becoming even more poorly educated isn't to a benefit. Perhaps you could do some resource extraction or textiles or whatever but even then does it make sense compared to going anywhere else?
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Jan 25, 2024 10:48
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Pistol_Pete posted:Yeah, look at the British Empire: there was no single dramatic moment when everything collapsed at once; it happened very gradually, over decades. And just like you rarely notice yourself aging, there's a lot of (especially older) Brits who've never properly internalised the fact that Britain is no longer a great power. If you looked at our British media for example, you could be forgiven for thinking that Britannia still rules the waves and that we're decisively intervening around the world. It makes me laugh when british sci fi has aliens come down and want to speak to parliament. I wonder how long until a movie where aliens even bother to blow up the white house seems quaint.
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Jan 25, 2024 10:56
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You can replace USD as a trading currency, its relatively easy to do if the US trade is taking up smaller and smaller percentage of global trade. But the investment currency is still USD. It will take a few more financial crisis/QE/waves of inflation for the global investment to slowly move from USD based to a multi currency multi goods based system. And I think USD will suck the Yen dry and defer the financial doom to Japan first before its own crisis. Maybe to Europe too.
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Jan 25, 2024 10:59
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Ardennes posted:Most American corporations there's too much stealing people split this country open like a piggy bank like 20 years before I was born they're not capable of reversing it, it's only gonna speed up, pc hardware is hitting hard limits for how small/fast and that was one of the last spots they were able to get actual growth from, telecom chinas making at least the same quality at the top end of most stuff now people forgot the number doesn't just go up because especially when a bunch of the labor is purely to make the number go up everything about America is geared up to handle things from a position of total superiority if it's not in that it's not geared up to handle much not just well but at all can't conceive of it it's why it's the worst it can't see the actual cause bc its instinctively looking the other way at the institutional level they can't repair that they benefit from it and wouldn't benefit more from fixing it, they won't & can't consider it FirstnameLastname has issued a correction as of 11:12 on Jan 25, 2024 |
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Jan 25, 2024 11:05
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Number always goes up. The relative value of number, however, well that's a bit different.
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Jan 25, 2024 11:08
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