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stephenthinkpad posted:You can replace USD as a trading currency, its relatively easy to do if the US trade is taking up smaller and smaller percentage of global trade. But the investment currency is still USD. It will take a few more financial crisis/QE/waves of inflation for the global investment to slowly move from USD based to a multi currency multi goods based system. A little too optimistic, the Yen is already being sucked dry, and there is already pressure on the USD. They may try to "suck" more from Europe but honestly I could see just Europe shattering instead. As far as investment goes, it is while the USD is stable, if it isn't it will be gold bricks or whatever. Also, it won't take a few more crises for movement to start, it is already happening. Also, American corporations do business under the aegis of American influence, the more that shrinks, so will that protection. China could nationalize every American asset in its borders if it really wanted to, and so could much of the rest of the world.
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Jan 25, 2024 11:27
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the big dramatic moment for the collapse of the british empire was when the big 2 million man armed forces they raised in the crown jool during ww2 refused to listen to orders and naval rating across the religion and caste line began marching up Marine Drive with pictures of Bose and Lenin. Of course because the british were actually competent at their job they didn't send the natives in but drew lines and caused the largest ethnic cleansing campaign in history. Power was handed over, there would be no Red subcontinent and London would continue to keep it's importance as a clearing house for exchanging the pound sterling with american dollars.
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Jan 25, 2024 11:33
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Americans are all individualists and that includes the wealthy. It's not about keeping GE, Boeing, or Microsoft wealthy but the executives and shareholders that run them, donate to politicians, and are part of their social circles. American elites when some of their paper value burns may no longer be considered among the wealthiest of the world, but they aren't going to be sweating whether to get cheese on their whopper. Worth considering how much of their ostensible value is connected to their lifestyle. Yeah, they get randy when they read those Forbes writeups on their wealth, but it isn't the same as their lifestyle being directly connected. They chase Number for its social value. I'm talking in the context of nuclear war looking real or even a severe paralyzing global depression from any kind of war with China. Maybe they think 'yes we must win this war for global sovereignty no matter the cost' when it all seems remote to them, but anything that hits close to home may be a cold shower that reminds them they'll still be wealthy and powerful when the sun sets on America. They'll accept brutalizing others to continue to grow their wealth beyond their own comfort just for the social status, but I'm not sure about accepting risk. Even if China takes its proper place as world leader there is still plenty of power and influence to be gained playing musical chairs within the anglosphere/Western Europe. Certainly long enough to see to their wealth during their lifetime. Maybe once upon a time they would've worried about legacies and their descendants, but America has fallen so far into nihilistic individualism I don't know how many care about that at all. The universe can explode once their eyes close. Curtis Lemay would've seen the world burn to preserve American supremacy, but I dunno about a general who's there mostly for the free golf vacations from MIC companies. Thinking America will drag the world down with it may be giving the decision makers around here too much credit. There's always the chance some rear end in a top hat hits the button before thinking about it too much of course.
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Jan 25, 2024 11:39
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They had an inside man.
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Jan 25, 2024 11:39
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yellowcar posted:the US actually believes they're Iranian proxies and not like a separate entity with its own goals and agendas Hell thats how America always viewed it. Remember we viewed every Left wing anti-colonial struggle as being puppet mastered directly from Moscow. Hell all the Libs think any online opposition to the Dems is a secret Russian
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Jan 25, 2024 12:06
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FuzzySlippers posted:Americans are all individualists and that includes the wealthy. It's not about keeping GE, Boeing, or Microsoft wealthy but the executives and shareholders that run them, donate to politicians, and are part of their social circles. America has to look for stuff to yell about like the uncontrollable gigantic 'spy' balloon I think we'll be safe the only time that the nukes would get used by the us (intentionally lol) is if china actually attacked like in red dawn china dawn or whatever and was an immediate huge threat in a way they have no interest in being with how long nuclear bombs have been around without being used in way more tense situations i think people really don't want to, they don't know what will happen and most people's guesses are really scary people will act like they will bc you have to or it's dangerous to even have it but people want to live lol like look st both sides of the cold war and there's psychos but at the crowd level if people got the idea to aggressively use nuclear bombs like that, they would have by now I think, bc didn't wait to prove it worked and there were more than one
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Jan 25, 2024 12:07
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Ardennes posted:There are going to be more proxy wars, but I think the West will limited by the arms they can send into them, in a fairly direct sense. Ukraine/Gaza/Yemen are all showing pretty alarming restraints on munitions and the West doesn't have it in for a re-industrialization. I guess the West has access to ton of small-arms ammo and light vehicles... I think ukraine was the end of the era of proxy wars and operation prosperity guardian was its epitaph. that’s why the US is directly losing to ansar allah. zooming out, war as a state function hit its peak under reagan. everything since the end of history has been about converting state war capacity to fictitious capital. that’s meant: iraq 1 as the last industrial war, followed by cruise missiles and the air-only wars under clinton, contractors under bush, drones and proxies under obama, detente under trump, and retreat/direct defeat under biden. for me id locate the start of ww3 at the russian invasion of ukraine. before, there was historical contingency, but since then there has been an inescapable logic of defeat, starting with the failure of “nuclear sanctions” against the russian economy. all removing russia from swift did was end the sino-soviet split. it set in motion the final crisis of the dollar. since then, in addition to the world historic fall of kabul, there’s been the defeat of the proxy model in ukraine, moves toward west african decolonization, news of syrian and iraqi decolonization, and a brewing secession crisis in texas. the us empire is breaking up faster than the arctic ice sheets. e: the only question is when the dollar actually breaks, and this is measured by the stock market, which is no longer allowed to decline. Mandel Brotset has issued a correction as of 12:13 on Jan 25, 2024 |
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Jan 25, 2024 12:08
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like i think an america where people would hit the button is one where china intervenes before it gets that bad there's like a billion people like once you've got all those people productive that's a lot, china quietly won they learned how we're dumb probably a really long time ago
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Jan 25, 2024 12:18
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Mandel Brotset posted:I think ukraine was the end of the era of proxy wars and operation prosperity guardian was its epitaph. that’s why the US is directly losing to ansar allah. The only thing I would disagree with is the US trying to squeeze out a couple more proxy wars here and there. It may be in the Western hemisphere or Africa but they aren't ready to give up even if the commitment they can make is going to get weaker and weaker. As for the stock market, yeah, people in the econ thread don't get or probably don't want to get is "number" is a inverse sign for the USD and the general American Empire. It is going to keep on going up, more or less, including BTC because the dollar itself is getting weaker and higher future yields will only press it further. There will be future printing...it just won't be controlled, it will be cashing out the bank. I would give a take all of cspan will hate, at a certain point it will be more worthwhile for anyone with cash to dump it in gold coins or copper piping or whatever than it is to keep in USD. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 12:30 on Jan 25, 2024 |
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Jan 25, 2024 12:28
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Mandel Brotset posted:a brewing secession crisis in texas Wait, what. I know there's always been talk of Texas going it alone again, but is there significant public support for that? Are the business elites of Houston and Austin open to the idea? I thought secession was a fringe thing in Texas.
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Jan 25, 2024 12:46
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Pistol_Pete posted:Wait, what. Fresh from the Balk thread! Relevant Tangent posted:
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Jan 25, 2024 12:57
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Slavvy posted:Please punctuate. Please. gently caress off that was very easy to parse
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Jan 25, 2024 13:41
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Ardennes posted:The only thing I would disagree with is the US trying to squeeze out a couple more proxy wars here and there. It may be in the Western hemisphere or Africa but they aren't ready to give up even if the commitment they can make is going to get weaker and weaker. shoulda listen to the ai obsessed guy who says put all your money into screws
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Jan 25, 2024 13:58
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Pf. Hikikomoriarty posted:shoulda listen to the ai obsessed guy who says put all your money into screws Screws do have value...., The Fed screw/bolt index, it exists, nearly doubled between 2018 and 2023. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 14:16 on Jan 25, 2024 |
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Jan 25, 2024 14:11
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FirstnameLastname posted:
This can't be stated enough. I remember at least 10 years ago people talking in D&D about how America is obviously in decline, but insisting it would be like 50 years before we saw the decline of American military dominance. And in less than 10 years we're flailing in a proxy war in Russia and completely impotent against Yemen, and getting squeezed out of Syria and Iraq. Its like global warming, where they said it'd be a century to see changes and meanwhile allnit took was 30 years for NYC to stop having a proper winter
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Jan 25, 2024 14:12
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I think you guys are a little bit overdramatic about this current war with Ansar Allah. The US haven't really put too much stakes in this fight. They can still walk away from it without losing too much prestige. The US and the west still have a very powerful media machine. They can write a good story or put a lid on it and let the onlooking global south forget the US navy doesn't have enough ammo to continue the shooting contest with Yemen. Worst case scenario the cost of shipping to Israel double or triple, it's still not a big stake, the US congress can pass a stupid bill to reimburse that part to Israel. The blockade and Navy "bombings" can last a few more years and simmer in the background. Ultimate, the conflict between Israel and Gaza has to come down to the Gazans, they have to be stay vigilant and persistent and win this long marathon against the IDF. As for the next proxy war, I don't know where is going to blow up. I don't think N Korea actually want to throw their hat in the ring. Maybe it will a different unsuspected part in East Europe or Middle East.
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Jan 25, 2024 14:15
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FirstnameLastname posted:china knows america is retarded from capitalism and like a child with a gun and is very careful to avoid provocation because they don't want to end the world i know nuke talk can get kind of eye rolly, but I've kind of jokingly figured that if nukes were ever used, it would be the United States using it against it's own citizens. I also wouldn't be surprised if China has some kind of contingency assuming they do get nuked, maybe the plan isn't to nuke back, maybe the plan is to just accept the millions dead as a result of the tantrum, and with enough highly skilled workers, established industry, and infrastructure they can quickly build through the 'apocalypse'. There's enough nukes to really, really, really gently caress things up, but no way will they gently caress things worse than climate change, which is the energy balance version of the nuclear apocalypse we're rushing toward already.
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Jan 25, 2024 14:33
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Well, more simply, the US deciding to nuclear weapons is deciding that nuclear weapons will be used against American civilians in turn.
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Jan 25, 2024 14:35
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I think you're all seriously underestimating the ability of the modern imperial state for infiltration, suppression and cop-opting political organizations that would be able to offer an alternative to the ghouls in charge. It's not the 1960's anymore, you can't do any kind of political activity without agent provocateurs and cops tracking your every move, and building a lawfare case against your organization, which you have zero ability to prevent due to the incredible brutality of the police state, which you do not have the ability to match with counter-intelligence. Just because the empire collapses, doesn't mean you get presented with any alternatives to the slow rotting away of all hope. It's a cop world. That huge cop megapolis they're building in Atlanta? That's the future, a cop future, where every attempt at change is instantly, efficiently and brutally suppressed by the hardening imperial state. The imperialists too, have learned.
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Jan 25, 2024 15:45
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Cindy the SKULL posted:I think you're all seriously underestimating the ability of the modern imperial state for infiltration, suppression and cop-opting political organizations that would be able to offer an alternative to the ghouls in charge. It's not the 1960's anymore, you can't do any kind of political activity without agent provocateurs and cops tracking your every move, and building a lawfare case against your organization, which you have zero ability to prevent due to the incredible brutality of the police state, which you do not have the ability to match with counter-intelligence. Gaza seems to prove otherwise. Edit: The law itself has been turned into a more blatant political weapon. You can pretty much do whatever you want in the US provided you don't show up on the "political enemy" radar. The intelligence agencies are as dependent on the world wide web as all the rest of us, and for some reason, we tricked ourselves into thinking a resistance organization can only operate on instantaneous, easily easedropped information provided by modern technology. ProfessorBooty has issued a correction as of 15:54 on Jan 25, 2024 |
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Jan 25, 2024 15:46
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ProfessorBooty posted:Gaza seems to prove otherwise. uh, how? gaza is a prison, riots sometimes happen in prisons
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Jan 25, 2024 15:51
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Cindy the SKULL posted:I think you're all seriously underestimating the ability of the modern imperial state for infiltration, suppression and cop-opting political organizations that would be able to offer an alternative to the ghouls in charge. It's not the 1960's anymore, you can't do any kind of political activity without agent provocateurs and cops tracking your every move, and building a lawfare case against your organization, which you have zero ability to prevent due to the incredible brutality of the police state, which you do not have the ability to match with counter-intelligence. cop country, not a cop world the us is losing ww3
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Jan 25, 2024 15:55
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Cindy the SKULL posted:uh, how? gaza is a prison, riots sometimes happen in prisons What is happening in Gaza is not a prison riot.
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Jan 25, 2024 15:56
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stephenthinkpad posted:Somethingawful will definitely outlast reddit, I will give it another 5-10 years before decline. Reddit will lose World Wide Web War 1
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Jan 25, 2024 15:59
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when the cia got every single guy they had in china got because they all had to check in to the same websites that was the public sign that the intelligence complex was already dead on the global stage and it's just a question how long it will take the corpse to rot
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Jan 25, 2024 15:59
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ProfessorBooty posted:What is happening in Gaza is not a prison riot. alright, it's more of a concentration camp breakout, but really, so what? what's the implication of hamas breaking out of gaza for a few days, and then getting murked like all prison escapees? what hope does the ongoing genocide give us?
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Jan 25, 2024 16:00
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atelier morgan posted:cop country, not a cop world yeah, i'm talking about our experience here, in the western empire. atelier morgan posted:when the cia got every single guy they had in china got because they all had to check in to the same websites that was the public sign that the intelligence complex was already dead on the global stage and it's just a question how long it will take the corpse to rot China is a sovereign state tho, operating on their own sovereign soil. You, as a political dissident in the empire, are in for a whole different world of pain in the coming decades
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Jan 25, 2024 16:02
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If anything the fact that any type of alternative will be shut down is only going to accelerate the decline, and also you have to pay your cops or they won’t be there for you. But yeah, the rest of the world isn’t going to give a poo poo.
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Jan 25, 2024 16:03
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Ardennes posted:If anything the fact that any type of alternative will be shut down is only going to accelerate the decline, and also you have to pay your cops or they won’t be there for you. how is it going to accelerate anything, if people are brutalized enough to lose all hope for change?
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Jan 25, 2024 16:04
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Cindy the SKULL posted:yeah, i'm talking about our experience here, in the western empire. the us losing ww3 will suck for us yeah good news for the world as whole though, and it was gonna suck for us anyway
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Jan 25, 2024 16:09
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Cindy the SKULL posted:alright, it's more of a concentration camp breakout, but really, so what? what's the implication of hamas breaking out of gaza for a few days, and then getting murked like all prison escapees? what hope does the ongoing genocide give us? The ability of western states to use a hitherto invincible military machine to apply force at home and abroad is shrinking. Indochinese and Algerian independence through armed struggle only really became possible because France had been defeated in 1940, for example.
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Jan 25, 2024 16:10
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atelier morgan posted:the us losing ww3 will suck for us yeah there still are greater horrors for us to witness
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Jan 25, 2024 16:11
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Cindy the SKULL posted:how is it going to accelerate anything, if people are brutalized enough to lose all hope for change? There won’t be any change, the country is going to accelerate off a cliff.
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Jan 25, 2024 16:15
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Cindy the SKULL posted:there still are greater horrors for us to witness i dont remember cindy the skull being such a bitch
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Jan 25, 2024 16:18
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Frosted Flake posted:The ability of western states to use a hitherto invincible military machine to apply force at home and abroad is shrinking. Algeria and Vietnam are examples of metastization of the empire imo, but whatever. Those were way back, and the empire of today is a different beast entirely. Even succesful, both of those countries are today thoroughly integrated into the mechanisms of global capitalism. Ok, Vietnam maybe less, but the fact that there are varying degrees integration that still achieve the end goal of serving the interests of global capital ought to be a sign that the empire has evolved from those times. In Nigeria, the British might've officially left, but really, the British never left. They're still in Lagos, counting their profits and assasinating anyone who tries to build an alternative political party to the sub-ghouls ruling the country in their stead.
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Jan 25, 2024 16:19
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Cindy the SKULL posted:alright, it's more of a concentration camp breakout, but really, so what? what's the implication of hamas breaking out of gaza for a few days, and then getting murked like all prison escapees? what hope does the ongoing genocide give us? america's vassal state is getting their rear end kicked by a bunch of concentration camp inmates. the state that is a reflection of america and basically a fascism laboratory could not control their internal population using the best technology available because of neoliberal rot. so it stands to reason that america is similarly incapable
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Jan 25, 2024 16:19
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Cuttlefush posted:i dont remember cindy the skull being such a bitch what, you wouldn't want to witness horrors unimaginable?
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Jan 25, 2024 16:19
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no i wouldnt
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Jan 25, 2024 16:22
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pussy rear end
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Jan 25, 2024 16:23
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getting a sense that you're the bad sort of rereg
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Jan 25, 2024 16:25
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