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psydude posted:I'm surprised it's taken Ukraine this long to target Russia's oil export infrastructure. The timing might coincide with Russia moving portions of the Black Sea fleet out of Sevastopol. If they can't fuel their ships then they either have to move back to Crimea, and in range of long range bombardment, or retire their fleet due to lack of fuel.
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Jan 25, 2024 13:08
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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-24-2024quote:Russian law enforcement authorities are codifying xenophobic profiling methods suggesting that migrants are predisposed to criminal activity against the backdrop of continued conflicts between Russian citizens and naturalized migrants. Russian outlet RTVI reported on January 24 that the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) published a “criminogenic index” detailing which countries’ migrants committed the most crimes in Russia in response to a request from Russian State Duma Deputy Mikhail Matveev to determine if “immigrants from certain countries have criminal characteristics.” "CITIZEN! Your skull shape implies criminal characteristics!"
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Jan 25, 2024 14:01
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psydude posted:I'm surprised it's taken Ukraine this long to target Russia's oil export infrastructure. All the western countries have extracted from Ukraine a promise to not use the really good western tech on targets inside Russia proper, for fear of escalation. Also the western kit Ukraine has doesn't quite have a super long range anyway, some Ukrainian strikes have been on targets like 700 km from the Ukraine-Russia border. It has taken a while, I guess, for Ukraine to create long-range drones by themselves that they can use for these long range strikes.
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Jan 25, 2024 14:06
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psydude posted:I'm surprised it's taken Ukraine this long to target Russia's oil export infrastructure. Concern over Russian air defenses would be my guess. I think it would be reasonable to assume that oil export infrastructure would be well defended and it's taken a while to become confident in the reduction of Russian air defense/confident in Ukrainian capabilities enough to start launching these strikes.
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Jan 25, 2024 15:09
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Cythereal posted:Concern over Russian air defenses would be my guess. I think it would be reasonable to assume that oil export infrastructure would be well defended and it's taken a while to become confident in the reduction of Russian air defense/confident in Ukrainian capabilities enough to start launching these strikes. Potentially an element of just having attrited enough of Russia's air defenses that some gaps have started to appear. We know Russia has been moving around S400 systems to close holes opened by Ukrainian strikes into Crimea.
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Jan 25, 2024 15:19
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I do hope that the drone strike on the Russian missile plant last week leads to issues for them.
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Jan 25, 2024 15:23
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Guys, it was a UFO. I don't the Ukrainians have access to Pleiadian technology yet
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Jan 25, 2024 17:13
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A.o.D. posted:The timing might coincide with Russia moving portions of the Black Sea fleet out of Sevastopol. If they can't fuel their ships then they either have to move back to Crimea, and in range of long range bombardment, or retire their fleet due to lack of fuel. Why would a strike on oil exports in the Baltic impact domestic use in the Black Sea?
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Jan 25, 2024 17:55
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EasilyConfused posted:Why would a strike on oil exports in the Baltic impact domestic use in the Black Sea? There were at least two strikes, one in oil exports in the Baltic, one on a refinery at the Black Sea.
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Jan 25, 2024 17:59
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bird food bathtub posted:Where do tracked vehicles fit in the technical alignment chart? I thought it was all wheeled vehicles but here we are. If you replace the wheels of a Hilux (with bed mounted ZSU-23 guns) with steel wheels and pull it on rails, is it a technical or a train? Does putting the ZSU-23 on a towed trailer make it a train? orange juche fucked around with this message at 18:06 on Jan 25, 2024 |
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Jan 25, 2024 18:03
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OddObserver posted:There were at least two strikes, one in oil exports in the Baltic, one on a refinery at the Black Sea. Whoops missed that, my bad (in my defense, I just got COVID so I'm a bit out of it).
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Jan 25, 2024 18:06
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orange juche posted:
That would make a diesel truck pulling it a diesel locomotive, thus nearly impossible to destroy
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Jan 25, 2024 18:09
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PurpleXVI posted:https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-24-2024 while i assume it's the duma putting out the regularly-scheduled red meat for the base (kind of an odd concept in russia, but it does exist) laws to show they're taking action against undesirables in pursuit of a pure and holy bastion of traditional values, since when did the MVD need codification to convince them to harass central asian immigrants? the resulting bribes are like 80% of their salary!
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Jan 25, 2024 18:48
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Huh I wonder what they threatened Orban with, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-25/hungary-reverses-opposition-on-new-eu-weapons-fund-for-ukraineBloomberg posted:Hungary will drop its objections to the creation of a €5 billion ($5.4 billion) Ukraine military assistance fund, paving the way for an agreement to revamp a vehicle that aims to steady supply of weapons to Kyiv, once member states sort out technical issues.
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Jan 25, 2024 18:50
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Rude Dude With Tude posted:Huh I wonder what they threatened Orban with, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-25/hungary-reverses-opposition-on-new-eu-weapons-fund-for-ukraine Money. EU threatened Hungary a couple days ago, last week, with investigating how some funds were released to them ahead of time. Orban knows who pays Hungary's EU bills and its not Putin, despite his closeness to him. Orban has overplayed his cards and the EU has subtly let him know they are watching. Orban is not as sly as he thinks he is. The EU also has a growing majority that is arguing Hungary should be kept on a tighter leash, so he really stepped in it: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/12/eu-lawmakers-push-on-with-move-to-try-and-limit-hungarys-voting-rights CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 18:53 on Jan 25, 2024 |
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Jan 25, 2024 18:51
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CommieGIR posted:The EU also has a growing majority that is arguing Hungary should be kept on a tighter leash, so he really stepped in it: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/12/eu-lawmakers-push-on-with-move-to-try-and-limit-hungarys-voting-rights Yeah, Orban started taking a nicer, but still unacceptable, tack on EU matters after that came to the fore. God I would LOVE for them to strip Hungary of voting rights, just peel him layer by layer like the fat rotting onion he is until there's nothing left.
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Jan 25, 2024 20:34
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Rev. Bleech_ posted:SomethingAwful Forums > Internet VFW > Ukraine: Piotr sighed as he flew his katana
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Jan 26, 2024 06:40
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yeah that's a great thread title
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Jan 26, 2024 07:39
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Agreed! 
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Jan 26, 2024 07:48
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EasilyConfused posted:Whoops missed that, my bad (in my defense, I just got COVID so I'm a bit out of it). Post/username. Feel better soon!
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Jan 26, 2024 08:12
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PurpleXVI posted:Yeah, Orban started taking a nicer, but still unacceptable, tack on EU matters after that came to the fore. God I would LOVE for them to strip Hungary of voting rights, just peel him layer by layer like the fat rotting onion he is until there's nothing left. There are a couple issues with Orban and Hungary. Much as most EU citizens like to see finiancial support for their country from the EU, they really dislike any real or perceived interference, and when the EU presses Orban and he pushes back, his base digs in for him. A brain drain is also taking place in Hungary, as many young and/or capable people move to other EU countries for better wages. So we have the base that is likely to oppose Orban and his policies leaving, while his supporters staying and helping Orban further fortify his own position. Anecdotally, I have spoken with many Hungarian expats, and while they are not exactly proud and supportive of Orban, they do like seeing their country in a strong position, and thus kindly step to the sidelines. I do believe Orban is overplaying his hand, but the EU is not going to win by threatening him or Hungary. Or maybe at least more carrot and less stick.
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Jan 26, 2024 08:15
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Dick Ripple posted:There are a couple issues with Orban and Hungary. Much as most EU citizens like to see finiancial support for their country from the EU, they really dislike any real or perceived interference, and when the EU presses Orban and he pushes back, his base digs in for him. A brain drain is also taking place in Hungary, as many young and/or capable people move to other EU countries for better wages. So we have the base that is likely to oppose Orban and his policies leaving, while his supporters staying and helping Orban further fortify his own position. Anecdotally, I have spoken with many Hungarian expats, and while they are not exactly proud and supportive of Orban, they do like seeing their country in a strong position, and thus kindly step to the sidelines. I tell ya, you haven't lived until you've beaten someone to death with a sizable carrot.
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Jan 26, 2024 09:06
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The important thing about blackmail is that it doesn't stop. When you are being blackmailed and you give in, you will get blackmailed again. Strip Hungary of its funding and voting rights, then we can talk. The EU needs to start treating this as the existential threat that it is.
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Jan 26, 2024 10:43
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Dick Ripple posted:Anecdotally, I have spoken with many Hungarian expats, and while they are not exactly proud and supportive of Orban, they do like seeing their country in a strong position, and thus kindly step to the sidelines. "I'm not proud of the neanderthal fascist, nor do I support him, but I love what he's doing, so I'm not going to get in the way of it!" I don't really see the meaningful difference between that and full-throated support. As for the carrot vs stick, the EU has been kowtowing to him and trying to wheedle and give him what he wants for several years now, which has utterly failed to drag him out of Putin's warm embrace. You can't negotiate bad actors into playing along with the rules, all you can do is refuse to involve them or threaten them, because any sort of well-meant agreement, they will simply ignore or attempt to twist out of its original intent. And like, if getting their EU funds and voting rights stripped away will somehow "play" to him, then him playing "hardball" and still getting what he wants will absolutely play into his hands as well. So no, gently caress him. It's stick time.
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Jan 26, 2024 12:24
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Also I don't think that being a spineless puppet of another country (while living on EU dole) makes your country strong, it makes your country pathetic, just in a dangerous way.
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Jan 26, 2024 13:39
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Splorange posted:I tell ya, you haven't lived until you've beaten someone to death with a sizable carrot. Poetry.
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Jan 26, 2024 14:08
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Splorange posted:I tell ya, you haven't lived until you've beaten someone to death with a sizable carrot. Where can I find one of these mega-carrots A kakarot if you will
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Jan 26, 2024 14:13
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Splorange posted:I tell ya, you haven't lived until you've beaten someone to death with a sizable carrot. Thread title candidate
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Jan 26, 2024 14:39
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PurpleXVI posted:https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-24-2024 Phrenology but the head lumps are from police truncheons.
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Jan 26, 2024 17:34
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A roundup of relevant recent articles. Context for the attacks on oil refineries. https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91473?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social quote:The two refineries attacked by Ukraine in January are export-oriented, and do not play a major role in the domestic market. However, if small drones with no more than 5 kilograms of explosives managed to reach Ust-Luga, which is 620 miles from Ukrainian territory, this means there are a total of eighteen Russian refineries with a combined capacity of 3.5 million barrels per day (more than half the Russian total) that are possible targets. A rather gloomy report on the gap between what Europe is doing, and what is necessary. https://ecfr.eu/publication/beyond-the-counter-offensive-attrition-stalemate-and-the-future-of-the-war-in-ukraine/#about-the-author quote:Unfortunately, Putin has a viable theory of victory in this war. While another effort to take the Ukrainian capital in a swift campaign is out of reach, eroding Western support for Ukraine is not. Time and again, Putin stresses Kyiv’s dependence on Western support, both economic and military. He often expresses his confidence that Russian endurance will triumph over the West. To exhaust Western willingness to support Ukraine, the Russian offensives do not necessarily have to conquer more Ukrainian territory. But they do need to put pressure on Kyiv by imposing manpower and materiel losses that Western sources will have difficulty making up. Unsurprisingly, Putin shows no interest in (serious) negotiations. Time and again, the Kremlin has said it will only negotiate if Moscow’s maximalist conditions are fulfilled. Moreover, the negotiations that are proposed are negotiations with the West, not Kyiv. In other words, until Moscow attains its goals one way or another, the war will continue. A more optimistic overview by Lee, Kofman and Massicot. https://warontherocks.com/2024/01/hold-build-and-strike-a-vision-for-rebuilding-ukraines-advantage-in-2024/ quote:A defeat would see Moscow impose its will on Ukraine and walk away from the war believing that it had effectively exhausted and defeated the West. Despite the strategic cost to Russia, Ukraine would lose territory and would bear a higher burden for the war in population and economic losses. While Russia will pose an enduring military threat to European security in either scenario, a Russia that suffers a costly defeat is clearly preferable to an emboldened Moscow that is able to recover without having to worry about Ukraine’s armed forces.
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Jan 26, 2024 17:44
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Phrenology but the head lumps are from police truncheons.
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Jan 26, 2024 18:03
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Phrenology but the head lumps are from police truncheons. In one of the Discworld books by Terry Pratchett there was a Troll Phrenologist who would bang you on the head to give you lumps in the right place. 
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Jan 26, 2024 18:31
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I figured this was a mandatory requirement to post reviews online.
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Jan 26, 2024 19:39
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Just Another Lurker posted:In one of the Discworld books by Terry Pratchett there was a Troll Phrenologist who would bang you on the head to give you lumps in the right place. "Applied Phrenology", iirc. Anyway: what I really wanna see (or not see, as the case may be) is once Ukraine gets its F-16s they're somehow flying more missions than should be possible with their number of airframes, flown by pilots speaking shaky, American-accented Ukrainian, and the Russian air defence network in Ukraine gets systematically demolished.
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Jan 26, 2024 22:59
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Tbh I just don't think thats very likely
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Jan 26, 2024 23:02
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Dandywalken posted:Tbh I just don't think thats very likely I know 😔
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Jan 26, 2024 23:04
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Plus, you know, the Ukrainians are doing a pretty good job dismantling Russian air defenses without foreign "military advisors" stepping in. You wouldn't be seeing a lot of the big strikes we saw throughout 2023 if Russian air defense was in a healthy space.
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Jan 26, 2024 23:04
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PurpleXVI posted:Plus, you know, the Ukrainians are doing a pretty good job dismantling Russian air defenses without foreign "military advisors" stepping in. You wouldn't be seeing a lot of the big strikes we saw throughout 2023 if Russian air defense was in a healthy space. Yea, but it'd be funny if the ukrainians were doing it.
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Jan 26, 2024 23:22
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CainFortea posted:Yea, but it'd be funny if the ukrainians were doing it. They are!
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Jan 26, 2024 23:22
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Well, they're not doing it the Top Gun way. They're doing it the Battlefield Moments way
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