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Pentecoastal Elites posted:I think "depopulate sectionally" is different from "incorporate under IDF control". I think the first is possible and the second, probably not. if they take an entire section of gaza and cleanse the entire Palestinian population out with stern warnings and/or bomb murder, then lock it away from re-entry, it is incorporated, it is under IDF control, and the new question we'll bother with is carefully crafted belief that the process (for some reason or other) can't then be repeated for the remaining fraction of the land that is still considered palestinean gaza i am coming away from this with even less faith in proclamations about what israel supposedly can't accomplish or what kinds of guerilla methods are unsolvable gordian knots for an increasingly brutal israel
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 05:20 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 06:39 |
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Staluigi posted:if they take an entire section of gaza and cleanse the entire Palestinian population out with stern warnings and/or bomb murder, then lock it away from re-entry, it is incorporated, it is under IDF control, and the new question we'll bother with is carefully crafted belief that the process (for some reason or other) can't then be repeated for the remaining fraction of the land that is still considered palestinean gaza If they were to murder most of the 2.4 million Palestinians and make life completely impossible for them and the resistance, the problem would simply shift to, 'We can't defeat Lebanon and Hezbollah,' because there is no way there would be peace after they completed the genocide.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 06:30 |
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Civilized Fishbot posted:I think thr above quote is what the average Israeli believes, the difference being that I assume the above poster sees another solution, the only remotely ethical one, in the form of giving all Palestinians basic rights and for the average Israeli this is completely off the table. I think that for Israeli society, they are right now at the tipping point. Functionally Israeli establishment 100% acts according to this. For them the strategy is clear, neuter Palestinian population into functional non-existence and annex much of West Bank destroying all hopes for two state solution. Ethnic cleansing is very much the point here, and Oct. 7th gave them opportunity to put this strategy into accelerated practice. This is the firm belief of Israeli establishment and their voter base in settler movement and right wingers. But I think that there are still large parts of Israeli population sceptical or opposed to settler ideology that has traditionally voted left wing. Today they vote for right wing in effect enabling ethnic cleansing policy of Israeli establishment. But unlike hard core right wingers and settler movement, I think that there's still some room for development of potential dissent there. Or I hope. But it is there that I can see there being potential for change stemming from within Israeli society, and in that way I can kinda see the comparisons to Americans in Vietnam. After all, those voters get conscripted too. But even if miracle would happen, and Israel gets more peace oriented government someday in future, would it be too late? And it wouldn't remove the influence of strong settler movement from Israeli society so would it just mean going back to slow ethnic cleansing, annexation and oppression instead of today's fast one with as little hope for workable two state solution as with current government? Maybe, it would mean that the root cause of the conflict will never be solved by hoping for change within Israel.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 08:17 |
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Marenghi posted:This is the first I/P conflict I've experienced where more people are being sympathetic to Palestine than to Israel. Maybe it's social media but more people are seeing Israel as butchers and bullies. I've seen the same, and I think it's especially notable because October 7th was a pretty massive attack that killed a lot of people. Israel has been playing up the 'deadliest day for Jews since WW2' for propaganda purposes but it really was a huge deal. The reason I extend this fairness and emphasize the scale is because despite that, they were finding far less sympathy from the start, at least in the circles I travel in. I have friends who during previous IDF operations would condemn them, yes, but today they are not doing any hand-wringing or equivocation, it's fully "gently caress Israel" all the way - despite the proximate inciting event seeming to give Israel a far greater well of sympathy to draw on.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 08:48 |
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Holy gently caress, the ICJ president explicitly rattling through every genocidal statement Israel has made, after referring to Palestinians as a protected ethnic group... It feels like I can start breathing again.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 13:28 |
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FirstnameLastname posted:If capable of it, yes. The holocaust would've 'succeeded' if not interrupted too, but the Nazis still would've been defeated when it came to war. genocide and war are different things, genocide isn't against an opponent, war is. Nazis fascists ethnosupremacists will have enthusiasm for committing a genocide, they won't for fighting a war they're not winning, they lose motivation when it gets hard and when it's not hard, they can't try hard enough because they think they've got it in the bag. Fascists have a terrifying enthusiasm for war and a delusional belief that the indomitable spirit of their people will always triumph. They were only defeated in World War 2 through overwhelming force essentially dismantling their countries. The idea that they'll just give up in the face of any kind of resistance is ludicrous magical thinking. This is another example: Pentecoastal Elites posted:I don't think it's the same as Vietnam but I also don't think it's so far away we can't draw comparisons. I think the dissent will arise from generally the same place, though not in the same form: the irreconcilable contradictions of the state. I think you're right in that israelis feel a live and salient threat, but I think that their -- I don't know how to put it -- cultural concord? national character? Has attenuated in the decades after WWII, and the system under threat is not built by and composed of utopian idealists or traumatized survivors, but the same sort of fully capitalized, fully atomized western consumer we've got in America. Maybe not to the degree you'd find in D.C., but israel is part of the imperial core and I think it is impossible to escape that cultural flattening. Maybe it's still too early for that to be completely true, but I interpret the overt cruelty, the massive push to the right, etc. not as a an expression of a renewed national unity in the face of a mortal threat, but the lashing out of a fascist state that is starting to get the feeling that the walls might be closing in. If that's true, I think the capacity for israelis to stomach the genocide and occupation is not very big. I really don't understand what definition of fascism is being used here. One that doesn't apply to any of the Axis Powers, I guess? Just a system of government that magically collapses on its own, and definitely doesn't take years of war and 10s of millions of deaths to bring to a stop? WhiskeyWhiskers posted:If they were to murder most of the 2.4 million Palestinians and make life completely impossible for them and the resistance, the problem would simply shift to, 'We can't defeat Lebanon and Hezbollah,' because there is no way there would be peace after they completed the genocide. Irony Be My Shield fucked around with this message at 13:35 on Jan 26, 2024 |
# ? Jan 26, 2024 13:32 |
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Despite the first post, this has ended up being an excellent livetweeted thread on the ICJ's statement today: https://x.com/alonso_gd/status/1750842815485984881?s=46&t=ARI_L-v32Oind1-d9B3a3Q Long story short, it seems that they accept that SA has brought a solid enough case to warrant consideration, so they will be advocating preventative measures (we don't know what yet), and Israel will officially gain the status of 'being tried for genocide' (which will likely have broad and significant international repercussions for the country and its government).
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 13:37 |
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https://x.com/rrrrnessa/status/1750862554509828493?s=46&t=ARI_L-v32Oind1-d9B3a3Q Among other things, this means that the ICJ is specifically asking Israel to punish its own president for inciting genocide within a month.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 13:48 |
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socialsecurity posted:
Back in October the head of COGAT said the following. quote:Hamas has turned into ISIS, and the residents of Gaza instead if being appalled, are celebrating. Later Netyanahu said this quote:Hamas is worse than ISIS. Only a genocidal terrorist organization is capable of such horrors. Though this tweet was what prompted me to make my initial post. https://x.com/DanelBenNamer/status/1745081450574065887?s=20 I've noticed a trend of you asking me to provide sources for well reported sentiments. Maybe if you're posting in the I/P thread you can find sources yourself, especially when they come from the head of government and security chief for Gaza.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 13:52 |
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Darth Walrus posted:Despite the first post, this has ended up being an excellent livetweeted thread on the ICJ's statement today:
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 13:56 |
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https://twitter.com/Alonso_GD/status/1750860976872681732 https://twitter.com/Alonso_GD/status/1750861193357475913 https://twitter.com/Alonso_GD/status/1750861527723196562 Al Jazeera posted:Highly anticipated ruling over
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 13:57 |
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Irony Be My Shield posted:There's a lot of contradictions in the ideology you've laid out but this seems like the most absurd one to me, and the one that's most relevant to this thread. Are you really trying to tell us that Nazis lose motivation and give up when they start losing a war? The same Nazis who started aggressively mobilizing 16-year-olds (and even younger kids) as the war turned against them? The same Nazis who did not surrender until drat near every inch of the country had fallen, many months after defeat was clearly inevitable? Being a brutal fascist state that has a large appetite for genocide and an extreme belief in their invincible army makes for an incredibly brittle opponent. It's precisely why they will lose. Brutality against civilians is extremely loving easy. It doesn't win wars though. They're still too scared to enter and clear tunnels.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 14:22 |
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Marenghi posted:Back in October the head of COGAT said the following. Only one person there said what you were claiming even then only halfway, I do not follow every single random Israeli NGO runner but it seems you read too much into what people say and exaggerate statements nonstop.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 14:31 |
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Being a brutal fascist state that has a large appetite for genocide and an extreme belief in their invincible army makes for an incredibly brittle opponent. With Nazi Germany being an exception?
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 14:48 |
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Dandywalken posted:With Nazi Germany being an exception? Eh, Nazi Germany ended up being pretty damned brittle, which was why it relied so heavily on aggression and momentum and never managed to recover once things started going wrong for it.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 14:51 |
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socialsecurity posted:Only one person there said what you were claiming even then only halfway, I do not follow every single random Israeli NGO runner but it seems you read too much into what people say and exaggerate statements nonstop. So you think the chief of COGAT and Netyanahu are just randomers? Requoting them with my original post because you seemed to have glossed over them. quote:First 'Hamas is ISIS'. quote:Now 'even ISIS condemn Hamas'. You seem to have a compulsive need to demand a source to every statement I make as though you aren't following the news. And to read everything literally even when I am paraphrasing.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 14:53 |
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Darth Walrus posted:Eh, Nazi Germany ended up being pretty damned brittle, which was why it relied so heavily on aggression and momentum and never managed to recover once things started going wrong for it. If they folded after 1941 Id agree
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 14:58 |
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Marenghi posted:So you think the chief of COGAT and Netyanahu are just randomers? I am unsure how to clear up this confusion here, you stated "Wait are ISIS bad again? I thought they were good now because they are condemning Hamas. It's hard to keep up. First 'Hamas is ISIS'. Now 'even ISIS condemn Hamas'." Nothing you just quoted said that ISIS is good now, the comparisons those people are making is that they consider ISIS to be bad and if someone bad is condemning you that means you are extra bad. They aren't right but that is what they are communicating. Not "ISIS is good now".
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 14:58 |
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Dandywalken posted:With Nazi Germany being an exception? With Nazi Germany being the rule. They built themselves up as an invincible army at the head of a 1000 year Reich and lost the 1 war they fought and only existed for 12 years. socialsecurity posted:I am unsure how to clear up this confusion here, you stated "Wait are ISIS bad again? I thought they were good now because they are condemning Hamas. It's hard to keep up. When Roald Dahl said, 'even a stinker like Hitler had good reasons for hating the Jews' would you argue that Roald Dahl had a genuine aversion to Nazism and Hitler? Or did they clearly share ideological ties? WhiskeyWhiskers fucked around with this message at 15:15 on Jan 26, 2024 |
# ? Jan 26, 2024 15:07 |
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The actual text of the ICJ ruling is available here, via the Washington Postquote:78. The Court considers that, with regard to the situation described above, Israel must, in accordance with its obligations under the Genocide Convention, in relation to Palestinians in Gaza, take all measures within its power to prevent the commission of all acts within the scope of Article II of this Convention, in particular: (a) killing members of the group; (b) causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; (c) deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; and (d) imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group. The Court recalls that these acts fall within the scope of Article II of the Convention when they are committed with the intent to destroy in whole or in part a group as such (see paragraph 44 above). The Court further considers that Israel must ensure with immediate effect that its military forces do not commit any of the above-described acts. Piell fucked around with this message at 15:41 on Jan 26, 2024 |
# ? Jan 26, 2024 15:22 |
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calling for a state to stop inciting genocide sure sounds like they think that state is inciting genocide
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 15:41 |
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punishedkissinger posted:calling for a state to stop inciting genocide sure sounds like they think that state is inciting genocide Take all steps within its power to prevent the killing or causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group also certainly sounds like the requirement for a ceasefire.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 15:49 |
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socialsecurity posted:I am unsure how to clear up this confusion here, you stated "Wait are ISIS bad again? I thought they were good now because they are condemning Hamas. It's hard to keep up. It's called exaggerating for rhetorical effect. I think any normal person could read my original statement and realised i wasn't being literal when I said ISIS are good now. It was drawing attention to Israeli government saying Hamas are ISIS, which they later changed to Hamas are worse than ISIS. You seem to have an issue with reading everything literally and being unable to comprehend metaphor or rhetorical devices. I think that ties into your incessant need to demand I provide sources for every post of mine. I could count a half dozen posts of mine where you reply demanding I provide sources.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 16:03 |
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Marenghi posted:It's called exaggerating for rhetorical effect. I think any normal person could read my original statement and realised i wasn't being literal when I said ISIS are good now. There's enough disinformation going on around this conflict if you find yourself "exaggerating" facts often perhaps think about how that comes across.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 16:05 |
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socialsecurity posted:There's enough disinformation going on around this conflict if you find yourself "exaggerating" facts often perhaps think about how that comes across. I don't think anyone believed Israel is pro-Isis based on that comment. It's pretty obvious to clear minded people what he was saying. Rhetoric and debate are not some mathematical proof.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 16:09 |
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socialsecurity posted:There's enough disinformation going on around this conflict if you find yourself "exaggerating" facts often perhaps think about how that comes across. Your original question to Marenghi posted:Would be helpful if you could quote someone who has said this? Your inability to be clear and consistent might be a problem, but I don’t think it’s Marenghi’s problem.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 16:11 |
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I was really encouraged by the ICJ ruling. I'm old enough to remember when things turned against South Africa, like I remember when Lethal Weapon 2 was actually a big deal. I feel like we're seeing a similar cultural shift against Israel. It's obviously in the beginning stages, and it's going to take a while before international support, especially in the US, falls behind the Palestinians, but at least at the moment that seems to be where things are going. I am, for the moment, genuinely optimistic.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 16:13 |
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Stringent posted:I was really encouraged by the ICJ ruling. I'm old enough to remember when things turned against South Africa, like I remember when Lethal Weapon 2 was actually a big deal. I feel like we're seeing a similar cultural shift against Israel. It's obviously in the beginning stages, and it's going to take a while before international support, especially in the US, falls behind the Palestinians, but at least at the moment that seems to be where things are going. I am, for the moment, genuinely optimistic. 100% Its def a positive move
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 16:18 |
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What happens if Israel doesn’t comply with any of the measures? It seems like the genocidal rhetoric part of that will be another slam dunk case since Ben-Gvir immediately started posting childish and violent tweets after the news broke.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 16:27 |
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not a value-add posted:What happens if Israel doesn’t comply with any of the measures? It seems like the genocidal rhetoric part of that will be another slam dunk case since Ben-Gvir immediately started posting childish and violent tweets after the news broke. Security Council are expected to implement a method of enforcement for the ruling, otherwise nothing on paper. It's a pretty bad idea to ignore a provisional ruling from any court when they're investigating you for the harshest crime imaginable, though.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 16:29 |
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Stringent posted:I was really encouraged by the ICJ ruling. I'm old enough to remember when things turned against South Africa, like I remember when Lethal Weapon 2 was actually a big deal. I feel like we're seeing a similar cultural shift against Israel. It's obviously in the beginning stages, and it's going to take a while before international support, especially in the US, falls behind the Palestinians, but at least at the moment that seems to be where things are going. I am, for the moment, genuinely optimistic. Me too. Honestly, I was bracing for the opposite ruling. I really hope this does mark the turning of the tide and I hope it actually matters. Irony Be My Shield posted:How on earth does "the capacity for israelis to stomach the genocide and occupation is not very big" follow from declaring that Israel's actions are "the lashing out of a fascist state"? Fascist states have historically had a lot of stomach for both genocide and occupation! They see nothing wrong with it because they do not see their victims as human! Not "stomach the genocide and occupation", but stomach the political, social, and economic costs of maintaining an active military occupation. I don't think if, given the option, your average israeli would hesitate to push a button that would immediately slaughter every Palestinian man, woman, and child. Like I said, I think the pressure of an active military occupation against an embedded and effective resistance will cause fractures and the fractures won't be "we should stop the genocide because the Palestinians are people too", it'll be "those backstabbing Arab-lovers in likud/national unity/mafdal/otzma/whatever are preventing our Glorious Victory over the untermensch" A fascist political project is an incredibly brittle political project, and also has a massive capacity for untrammeled death and destruction. It is inherently unstable and will collapse once it can't bear the weight of its own contradictions, and even if that happens quickly relatively to other political orientations it might not happen on the scale of a human lifetime. israel, I think/hope is getting there. I don't think this means by this time next year everyone will be living in a pluralistic secular Palestine, but I think that future historians may be able to point to Gaza as the beginning of the end of the zionist project.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 16:29 |
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not a value-add posted:What happens if Israel doesn’t comply with any of the measures? It seems like the genocidal rhetoric part of that will be another slam dunk case since Ben-Gvir immediately started posting childish and violent tweets after the news broke. Basically nothing unless the US supports or at least doesn't actively block it. The ICJ has no independent enforcement ability and so relies on the UNSC to actually do anything about it. However this provisional ruling and almost certainty of continuing investigations will hopefully cause that to occur much sooner than it otherwise might have. We'll see how Biden responds over the next few weeks. It's all painfully slow given the context but this is (yet again) fairly unprecedented waters for the I/P conflict
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 16:35 |
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not a value-add posted:What happens if Israel doesn’t comply with any of the measures? It seems like the genocidal rhetoric part of that will be another slam dunk case since Ben-Gvir immediately started posting childish and violent tweets after the news broke. Intrinsically? Nothing. The court has no enforcement power. Practically there's a few implications, though. The UN has now issued legal precedence for how its member states should treat Israel. The more states deny that precedence, the harder it becomes for them to justify the UN as an institution. And despite general leftist doomsaying, I think a good chunk of the European countries will start to peel away support, as their primary allegiance will be to the UN over the US.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 16:36 |
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Kagrenak posted:Basically nothing unless the US supports or at least doesn't actively block it. The ICJ has no independent enforcement ability and so relies on the UNSC to actually do anything about it. However this provisional ruling and almost certainty of continuing investigations will hopefully cause that to occur much sooner than it otherwise might have. We'll see how Biden responds over the next few weeks. Just remember though that the US does not have a veto on ICJ rulings, only on UNSC resolutions, which an enforcement mechanism would not be.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 16:36 |
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I'd also point out that Ben-Gvir's relatively unimpeded efforts to funnel increasingly heavy weaponry to his affiliated settler militas has very arms transfers to the southern states on the eve of the civil war vibes to it.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 16:37 |
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not a value-add posted:What happens if Israel doesn’t comply with any of the measures? It seems like the genocidal rhetoric part of that will be another slam dunk case since Ben-Gvir immediately started posting childish and violent tweets after the news broke. The same thing that happened to Russia when they ignored the ICJ demand of halting their invasion a couple of years ago. Which was..... oh right, nothing
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 16:42 |
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Kalit posted:The same thing that happened to Russia when they ignored the ICJ demand of halting their invasion a couple of years ago. Which was..... oh right, nothing I wouldn't say that exactly. If the US starts selling Patriot batteries and F-16s to Gaza, I think that would be a pretty positive outcome.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 16:44 |
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Kalit posted:The same thing that happened to Russia when they ignored the ICJ demand of halting their invasion a couple of years ago. Which was..... oh right, nothing Russia is able to supply their own war effort through domestic manufacturing. Israel was so desperate for tank shells a few weeks ago that Biden had to bypass congress to supply them. This is not some silver bullet to end the genocide but it is a good first step in Israel going the way of South Africa/Rhodesia.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 16:44 |
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Just remember though that the US does not have a veto on ICJ rulings, only on UNSC resolutions, which an enforcement mechanism would not be. An enforcement of the ICJ ruling would absolutely have to come from the security council. See article 94 of the UN charter: https://legal.un.org/repertory/art94.shtml
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 16:45 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 06:39 |
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Kalit posted:The same thing that happened to Russia when they ignored the ICJ demand of halting their invasion a couple of years ago. Which was..... oh right, nothing I don't know the full history of ICJ proceedings, but the fact that this happened is a notable. I'm not sure if would have happened even in, say, the 2010s. That being said, I think you're justified in wondering how much international law really matters outside of window dressing. It's like a slow-moving process to get the will of the world to do something substantive.
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# ? Jan 26, 2024 16:46 |