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Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

Pentecoastal Elites posted:

I think "depopulate sectionally" is different from "incorporate under IDF control". I think the first is possible and the second, probably not.

if they take an entire section of gaza and cleanse the entire Palestinian population out with stern warnings and/or bomb murder, then lock it away from re-entry, it is incorporated, it is under IDF control, and the new question we'll bother with is carefully crafted belief that the process (for some reason or other) can't then be repeated for the remaining fraction of the land that is still considered palestinean gaza

i am coming away from this with even less faith in proclamations about what israel supposedly can't accomplish or what kinds of guerilla methods are unsolvable gordian knots for an increasingly brutal israel

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WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

Staluigi posted:

if they take an entire section of gaza and cleanse the entire Palestinian population out with stern warnings and/or bomb murder, then lock it away from re-entry, it is incorporated, it is under IDF control, and the new question we'll bother with is carefully crafted belief that the process (for some reason or other) can't then be repeated for the remaining fraction of the land that is still considered palestinean gaza

i am coming away from this with even less faith in proclamations about what israel supposedly can't accomplish or what kinds of guerilla methods are unsolvable gordian knots for an increasingly brutal israel

If they were to murder most of the 2.4 million Palestinians and make life completely impossible for them and the resistance, the problem would simply shift to, 'We can't defeat Lebanon and Hezbollah,' because there is no way there would be peace after they completed the genocide.

Glah
Jun 21, 2005

Civilized Fishbot posted:

I think thr above quote is what the average Israeli believes, the difference being that I assume the above poster sees another solution, the only remotely ethical one, in the form of giving all Palestinians basic rights and for the average Israeli this is completely off the table.

And for this reason you will have far far far fewer soldiers saying "this is pointless, I don't know what I'm doing here, I am going to resist or attack the people making me fight here" like so many Americans during the Vietnam war. The Israeli soldiers know the threat (Hamas) and how their operations are supposed to resolve it (the destruction of Gaza and, as they are less and less reluctant to publicly recognize, the destruction of Palestine as a nation).

Even the Israelis resisting the draft, like Tal Mitnick, don't say "there is no threat" but "there is no military solution."

I think that for Israeli society, they are right now at the tipping point. Functionally Israeli establishment 100% acts according to this. For them the strategy is clear, neuter Palestinian population into functional non-existence and annex much of West Bank destroying all hopes for two state solution. Ethnic cleansing is very much the point here, and Oct. 7th gave them opportunity to put this strategy into accelerated practice. This is the firm belief of Israeli establishment and their voter base in settler movement and right wingers.

But I think that there are still large parts of Israeli population sceptical or opposed to settler ideology that has traditionally voted left wing. Today they vote for right wing in effect enabling ethnic cleansing policy of Israeli establishment. But unlike hard core right wingers and settler movement, I think that there's still some room for development of potential dissent there. Or I hope. But it is there that I can see there being potential for change stemming from within Israeli society, and in that way I can kinda see the comparisons to Americans in Vietnam. After all, those voters get conscripted too.

But even if miracle would happen, and Israel gets more peace oriented government someday in future, would it be too late? And it wouldn't remove the influence of strong settler movement from Israeli society so would it just mean going back to slow ethnic cleansing, annexation and oppression instead of today's fast one with as little hope for workable two state solution as with current government? Maybe, it would mean that the root cause of the conflict will never be solved by hoping for change within Israel.

Ms Adequate
Oct 30, 2011

Baby even when I'm dead and gone
You will always be my only one, my only one
When the night is calling
No matter who I become
You will always be my only one, my only one, my only one
When the night is calling



Marenghi posted:

This is the first I/P conflict I've experienced where more people are being sympathetic to Palestine than to Israel. Maybe it's social media but more people are seeing Israel as butchers and bullies.

It might be a local thing, but even the leader of Ireland walked back from his statement that Israel cannot be accused of genocide because of the Holocaust. Maybe a week later he was saying that SAs case in the ICJ is valid. He's a windsock. 5 years ago backing Israel would have been the popular position, but people are viewing them more negatively in the light of what they are seeing happening in Gaza.

I would have had to bite my tongue discussing P/I with people but now more seem to share my viewpoint of the conflict.

I've seen the same, and I think it's especially notable because October 7th was a pretty massive attack that killed a lot of people. Israel has been playing up the 'deadliest day for Jews since WW2' for propaganda purposes but it really was a huge deal. The reason I extend this fairness and emphasize the scale is because despite that, they were finding far less sympathy from the start, at least in the circles I travel in. I have friends who during previous IDF operations would condemn them, yes, but today they are not doing any hand-wringing or equivocation, it's fully "gently caress Israel" all the way - despite the proximate inciting event seeming to give Israel a far greater well of sympathy to draw on.

youcallthatatwist
Sep 22, 2013
Holy gently caress, the ICJ president explicitly rattling through every genocidal statement Israel has made, after referring to Palestinians as a protected ethnic group... It feels like I can start breathing again.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

FirstnameLastname posted:

If capable of it, yes. The holocaust would've 'succeeded' if not interrupted too, but the Nazis still would've been defeated when it came to war. genocide and war are different things, genocide isn't against an opponent, war is. Nazis fascists ethnosupremacists will have enthusiasm for committing a genocide, they won't for fighting a war they're not winning, they lose motivation when it gets hard and when it's not hard, they can't try hard enough because they think they've got it in the bag.
Israel isn't 100% Nazis (p. close tho ) but Israel is being steered by 100% Nazis, so the behavior of the state and institutions are going to be 100% Nazi, and the attitudes that cause fascist entities to form also systemically self-select for violent power tripping morons with connections over talent, skill, or merit. It forces them to lose they and will always find a loss given enough time because they are doing stuff incorrectly
There's a lot of contradictions in the ideology you've laid out but this seems like the most absurd one to me, and the one that's most relevant to this thread. Are you really trying to tell us that Nazis lose motivation and give up when they start losing a war? The same Nazis who started aggressively mobilizing 16-year-olds (and even younger kids) as the war turned against them? The same Nazis who did not surrender until drat near every inch of the country had fallen, many months after defeat was clearly inevitable?

Fascists have a terrifying enthusiasm for war and a delusional belief that the indomitable spirit of their people will always triumph. They were only defeated in World War 2 through overwhelming force essentially dismantling their countries. The idea that they'll just give up in the face of any kind of resistance is ludicrous magical thinking. This is another example:

Pentecoastal Elites posted:

I don't think it's the same as Vietnam but I also don't think it's so far away we can't draw comparisons. I think the dissent will arise from generally the same place, though not in the same form: the irreconcilable contradictions of the state. I think you're right in that israelis feel a live and salient threat, but I think that their -- I don't know how to put it -- cultural concord? national character? Has attenuated in the decades after WWII, and the system under threat is not built by and composed of utopian idealists or traumatized survivors, but the same sort of fully capitalized, fully atomized western consumer we've got in America. Maybe not to the degree you'd find in D.C., but israel is part of the imperial core and I think it is impossible to escape that cultural flattening. Maybe it's still too early for that to be completely true, but I interpret the overt cruelty, the massive push to the right, etc. not as a an expression of a renewed national unity in the face of a mortal threat, but the lashing out of a fascist state that is starting to get the feeling that the walls might be closing in. If that's true, I think the capacity for israelis to stomach the genocide and occupation is not very big.
How on earth does "the capacity for israelis to stomach the genocide and occupation is not very big" follow from declaring that Israel's actions are "the lashing out of a fascist state"? Fascist states have historically had a lot of stomach for both genocide and occupation! They see nothing wrong with it because they do not see their victims as human!

I really don't understand what definition of fascism is being used here. One that doesn't apply to any of the Axis Powers, I guess? Just a system of government that magically collapses on its own, and definitely doesn't take years of war and 10s of millions of deaths to bring to a stop?

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

If they were to murder most of the 2.4 million Palestinians and make life completely impossible for them and the resistance, the problem would simply shift to, 'We can't defeat Lebanon and Hezbollah,' because there is no way there would be peace after they completed the genocide.
If Hezbollah thought that Israel couldn't defeat it then I think it would've gotten more involved, especially after Israel brazenly killed a Hamas leader in Lebanon. I don't think a war with Hezbollah would be easy for Israel (they are far larger and better equipped than Hamas, and wouldn't be starting the war in virtually the worst strategic position possible) but I'm sure they would be prepared to approach it with the same brutality they have in Gaza.

Irony Be My Shield fucked around with this message at 13:35 on Jan 26, 2024

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012
Despite the first post, this has ended up being an excellent livetweeted thread on the ICJ's statement today:

https://x.com/alonso_gd/status/1750842815485984881?s=46&t=ARI_L-v32Oind1-d9B3a3Q

Long story short, it seems that they accept that SA has brought a solid enough case to warrant consideration, so they will be advocating preventative measures (we don't know what yet), and Israel will officially gain the status of 'being tried for genocide' (which will likely have broad and significant international repercussions for the country and its government).

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012
https://x.com/rrrrnessa/status/1750862554509828493?s=46&t=ARI_L-v32Oind1-d9B3a3Q

Among other things, this means that the ICJ is specifically asking Israel to punish its own president for inciting genocide within a month.

Marenghi
Oct 16, 2008

Don't trust the liberals,
they will betray you

socialsecurity posted:

Marenghi posted:

Wait are ISIS bad again? I thought they were good now because they are condemning Hamas. It's hard to keep up.
First 'Hamas is ISIS'. Now 'even ISIS condemn Hamas'.


Would be helpful if you could quote someone who has said this?

Back in October the head of COGAT said the following.

quote:

Hamas has turned into ISIS, and the residents of Gaza instead if being appalled, are celebrating.
Human animals must be treated as such. There will be no electricity and no water, there will be only destruction.

Later Netyanahu said this

quote:

Hamas is worse than ISIS. Only a genocidal terrorist organization is capable of such horrors.

Though this tweet was what prompted me to make my initial post.
https://x.com/DanelBenNamer/status/1745081450574065887?s=20

I've noticed a trend of you asking me to provide sources for well reported sentiments. Maybe if you're posting in the I/P thread you can find sources yourself, especially when they come from the head of government and security chief for Gaza.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Darth Walrus posted:

Despite the first post, this has ended up being an excellent livetweeted thread on the ICJ's statement today:

https://x.com/alonso_gd/status/1750842815485984881?s=46&t=ARI_L-v32Oind1-d9B3a3Q

Long story short, it seems that they accept that SA has brought a solid enough case to warrant consideration, so they will be advocating preventative measures (we don't know what yet), and Israel will officially gain the status of 'being tried for genocide' (which will likely have broad and significant international repercussions for the country and its government).
Yes and the judges talked about the public statements from Israeli government officials that had genocidal intent, which I think the world needs to understand is not an accident

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

https://twitter.com/Alonso_GD/status/1750860976872681732
https://twitter.com/Alonso_GD/status/1750861193357475913
https://twitter.com/Alonso_GD/status/1750861527723196562

Al Jazeera posted:

Highly anticipated ruling over
The reading of the ruling has now ended.

The ICJ demanded Israel, among others, to try to contain death and damage in the Gaza Strip but stops short of ordering a ceasefire.
The ruling falls short of demanding a ceasefire or end to the conflict, so pretty weak. I guess Israel has to tell its soldiers not to genocide and write a report about it in a month.

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

Irony Be My Shield posted:

There's a lot of contradictions in the ideology you've laid out but this seems like the most absurd one to me, and the one that's most relevant to this thread. Are you really trying to tell us that Nazis lose motivation and give up when they start losing a war? The same Nazis who started aggressively mobilizing 16-year-olds (and even younger kids) as the war turned against them? The same Nazis who did not surrender until drat near every inch of the country had fallen, many months after defeat was clearly inevitable?

Fascists have a terrifying enthusiasm for war and a delusional belief that the indomitable spirit of their people will always triumph. They were only defeated in World War 2 through overwhelming force essentially dismantling their countries. The idea that they'll just give up in the face of any kind of resistance is ludicrous magical thinking. This is another example:

How on earth does "the capacity for israelis to stomach the genocide and occupation is not very big" follow from declaring that Israel's actions are "the lashing out of a fascist state"? Fascist states have historically had a lot of stomach for both genocide and occupation! They see nothing wrong with it because they do not see their victims as human!

I really don't understand what definition of fascism is being used here. One that doesn't apply to any of the Axis Powers, I guess? Just a system of government that magically collapses on its own, and definitely doesn't take years of war and 10s of millions of deaths to bring to a stop?

If Hezbollah thought that Israel couldn't defeat it then I think it would've gotten more involved, especially after Israel brazenly killed a Hamas leader in Lebanon. I don't think a war with Hezbollah would be easy for Israel (they are far larger and better equipped than Hamas, and wouldn't be starting the war in virtually the worst strategic position possible) but I'm sure they would be prepared to approach it with the same brutality they have in Gaza.

Being a brutal fascist state that has a large appetite for genocide and an extreme belief in their invincible army makes for an incredibly brittle opponent. It's precisely why they will lose. Brutality against civilians is extremely loving easy. It doesn't win wars though. They're still too scared to enter and clear tunnels.

socialsecurity
Aug 30, 2003

Marenghi posted:

Back in October the head of COGAT said the following.

Later Netyanahu said this

Though this tweet was what prompted me to make my initial post.
https://x.com/DanelBenNamer/status/1745081450574065887?s=20

I've noticed a trend of you asking me to provide sources for well reported sentiments. Maybe if you're posting in the I/P thread you can find sources yourself, especially when they come from the head of government and security chief for Gaza.

Only one person there said what you were claiming even then only halfway, I do not follow every single random Israeli NGO runner but it seems you read too much into what people say and exaggerate statements nonstop.

Dandywalken
Feb 11, 2014

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

Being a brutal fascist state that has a large appetite for genocide and an extreme belief in their invincible army makes for an incredibly brittle opponent.

With Nazi Germany being an exception?

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012

Dandywalken posted:

With Nazi Germany being an exception?

Eh, Nazi Germany ended up being pretty damned brittle, which was why it relied so heavily on aggression and momentum and never managed to recover once things started going wrong for it.

Marenghi
Oct 16, 2008

Don't trust the liberals,
they will betray you

socialsecurity posted:

Only one person there said what you were claiming even then only halfway, I do not follow every single random Israeli NGO runner but it seems you read too much into what people say and exaggerate statements nonstop.

So you think the chief of COGAT and Netyanahu are just randomers?

Requoting them with my original post because you seemed to have glossed over them.

quote:

First 'Hamas is ISIS'.

COGAT Chief Hassan Alian posted:

Hamas has turned into ISIS

quote:

Now 'even ISIS condemn Hamas'.

"Prime Minister Netyanahu posted:

Hamas is worse than ISIS

You seem to have a compulsive need to demand a source to every statement I make as though you aren't following the news. And to read everything literally even when I am paraphrasing.

Dandywalken
Feb 11, 2014

Darth Walrus posted:

Eh, Nazi Germany ended up being pretty damned brittle, which was why it relied so heavily on aggression and momentum and never managed to recover once things started going wrong for it.

If they folded after 1941 Id agree

socialsecurity
Aug 30, 2003

Marenghi posted:

So you think the chief of COGAT and Netyanahu are just randomers?

Requoting them with my original post because you seemed to have glossed over them.



You seem to have a compulsive need to demand a source to every statement I make as though you aren't following the news. And to read everything literally even when I am paraphrasing.

I am unsure how to clear up this confusion here, you stated "Wait are ISIS bad again? I thought they were good now because they are condemning Hamas. It's hard to keep up.
First 'Hamas is ISIS'. Now 'even ISIS condemn Hamas'."

Nothing you just quoted said that ISIS is good now, the comparisons those people are making is that they consider ISIS to be bad and if someone bad is condemning you that means you are extra bad. They aren't right but that is what they are communicating. Not "ISIS is good now".

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

Dandywalken posted:

With Nazi Germany being an exception?

With Nazi Germany being the rule. They built themselves up as an invincible army at the head of a 1000 year Reich and lost the 1 war they fought and only existed for 12 years.

socialsecurity posted:

I am unsure how to clear up this confusion here, you stated "Wait are ISIS bad again? I thought they were good now because they are condemning Hamas. It's hard to keep up.
First 'Hamas is ISIS'. Now 'even ISIS condemn Hamas'."

Nothing you just quoted said that ISIS is good now, the comparisons those people are making is that they consider ISIS to be bad and if someone bad is condemning you that means you are extra bad. They aren't right but that is what they are communicating. Not "ISIS is good now".

When Roald Dahl said, 'even a stinker like Hitler had good reasons for hating the Jews' would you argue that Roald Dahl had a genuine aversion to Nazism and Hitler? Or did they clearly share ideological ties?

WhiskeyWhiskers fucked around with this message at 15:15 on Jan 26, 2024

Piell
Sep 3, 2006

Grey Worm's Ken doll-like groin throbbed with the anticipatory pleasure that only a slightly warm and moist piece of lemoncake could offer


Young Orc
The actual text of the ICJ ruling is available here, via the Washington Post

quote:

78. The Court considers that, with regard to the situation described above, Israel must, in accordance with its obligations under the Genocide Convention, in relation to Palestinians in Gaza, take all measures within its power to prevent the commission of all acts within the scope of Article II of this Convention, in particular: (a) killing members of the group; (b) causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; (c) deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; and (d) imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group. The Court recalls that these acts fall within the scope of Article II of the Convention when they are committed with the intent to destroy in whole or in part a group as such (see paragraph 44 above). The Court further considers that Israel must ensure with immediate effect that its military forces do not commit any of the above-described acts.

79. The Court is also of the view that Israel must take all measures within its power to prevent and punish the direct and public incitement to commit genocide in relation to members of the Palestinian group in the Gaza Strip.

80. The Court further considers that Israel must take immediate and effective measures to enable the provision of urgently needed basic services and humanitarian assistance to address the adverse conditions of life faced by Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

81. Israel must also take effective measures to prevent the destruction and ensure the preservation of evidence related to allegations of acts within the scope of Article II and Article III of the Genocide Convention against members of the Palestinian group in the Gaza Strip.

82. Regarding the provisional measure requested by South Africa that Israel must submit a report to the Court on all measures taken to give effect to its Order, the Court recalls that it has the power, reflected in Article 78 of the Rules of Court, to request the parties to provide information on any matter connected with the implementation of any provisional measures it has indicated. In view of the specific provisional measures it has decided to indicate, the Court considers that Israel must submit a report to the Court on all measures taken to give effect to this Order within one month, as from the date of this Order. The report so provided shall then be communicated to South Africa, which shall be given the opportunity to submit to the Court its comments thereon

Piell fucked around with this message at 15:41 on Jan 26, 2024

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

calling for a state to stop inciting genocide sure sounds like they think that state is inciting genocide

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

punishedkissinger posted:

calling for a state to stop inciting genocide sure sounds like they think that state is inciting genocide

Take all steps within its power to prevent the killing or causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group also certainly sounds like the requirement for a ceasefire.

Marenghi
Oct 16, 2008

Don't trust the liberals,
they will betray you

socialsecurity posted:

I am unsure how to clear up this confusion here, you stated "Wait are ISIS bad again? I thought they were good now because they are condemning Hamas. It's hard to keep up.
First 'Hamas is ISIS'. Now 'even ISIS condemn Hamas'."

Nothing you just quoted said that ISIS is good now, the comparisons those people are making is that they consider ISIS to be bad and if someone bad is condemning you that means you are extra bad. They aren't right but that is what they are communicating. Not "ISIS is good now".

It's called exaggerating for rhetorical effect. I think any normal person could read my original statement and realised i wasn't being literal when I said ISIS are good now.

It was drawing attention to Israeli government saying Hamas are ISIS, which they later changed to Hamas are worse than ISIS.

You seem to have an issue with reading everything literally and being unable to comprehend metaphor or rhetorical devices. I think that ties into your incessant need to demand I provide sources for every post of mine.

I could count a half dozen posts of mine where you reply demanding I provide sources.

socialsecurity
Aug 30, 2003

Marenghi posted:

It's called exaggerating for rhetorical effect. I think any normal person could read my original statement and realised i wasn't being literal when I said ISIS are good now.

It was drawing attention to Israeli government saying Hamas are ISIS, which they later changed to Hamas are worse than ISIS.

You seem to have an issue with reading everything literally and being unable to comprehend metaphor or rhetorical devices. I think that ties into your incessant need to demand I provide sources for every post of mine.

I could count a half dozen posts of mine where you reply demanding I provide sources.

There's enough disinformation going on around this conflict if you find yourself "exaggerating" facts often perhaps think about how that comes across.

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

socialsecurity posted:

There's enough disinformation going on around this conflict if you find yourself "exaggerating" facts often perhaps think about how that comes across.

I don't think anyone believed Israel is pro-Isis based on that comment. It's pretty obvious to clear minded people what he was saying. Rhetoric and debate are not some mathematical proof.

Jai Guru Dave
Jan 3, 2008

by Fluffdaddy

(and can't post for 29 days!)

socialsecurity posted:

There's enough disinformation going on around this conflict if you find yourself "exaggerating" facts often perhaps think about how that comes across.

Your original question to Marenghi posted:

Would be helpful if you could quote someone who has said this?
There’s no way Marenghi could have divined that by “this” you meant “ISIS is good,” as opposed to “Even ISIS condemns Hamas.”

Your inability to be clear and consistent might be a problem, but I don’t think it’s Marenghi’s problem.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


image text goes here
I was really encouraged by the ICJ ruling. I'm old enough to remember when things turned against South Africa, like I remember when Lethal Weapon 2 was actually a big deal. I feel like we're seeing a similar cultural shift against Israel. It's obviously in the beginning stages, and it's going to take a while before international support, especially in the US, falls behind the Palestinians, but at least at the moment that seems to be where things are going. I am, for the moment, genuinely optimistic.

Dandywalken
Feb 11, 2014

Stringent posted:

I was really encouraged by the ICJ ruling. I'm old enough to remember when things turned against South Africa, like I remember when Lethal Weapon 2 was actually a big deal. I feel like we're seeing a similar cultural shift against Israel. It's obviously in the beginning stages, and it's going to take a while before international support, especially in the US, falls behind the Palestinians, but at least at the moment that seems to be where things are going. I am, for the moment, genuinely optimistic.

100% Its def a positive move

not a value-add
Jan 17, 2019

What happens if Israel doesn’t comply with any of the measures? It seems like the genocidal rhetoric part of that will be another slam dunk case since Ben-Gvir immediately started posting childish and violent tweets after the news broke.

Neurolimal
Nov 3, 2012

not a value-add posted:

What happens if Israel doesn’t comply with any of the measures? It seems like the genocidal rhetoric part of that will be another slam dunk case since Ben-Gvir immediately started posting childish and violent tweets after the news broke.

Security Council are expected to implement a method of enforcement for the ruling, otherwise nothing on paper. It's a pretty bad idea to ignore a provisional ruling from any court when they're investigating you for the harshest crime imaginable, though.

Pentecoastal Elites
Feb 27, 2007

Stringent posted:

I was really encouraged by the ICJ ruling. I'm old enough to remember when things turned against South Africa, like I remember when Lethal Weapon 2 was actually a big deal. I feel like we're seeing a similar cultural shift against Israel. It's obviously in the beginning stages, and it's going to take a while before international support, especially in the US, falls behind the Palestinians, but at least at the moment that seems to be where things are going. I am, for the moment, genuinely optimistic.

Me too. Honestly, I was bracing for the opposite ruling. I really hope this does mark the turning of the tide and I hope it actually matters.

Irony Be My Shield posted:

How on earth does "the capacity for israelis to stomach the genocide and occupation is not very big" follow from declaring that Israel's actions are "the lashing out of a fascist state"? Fascist states have historically had a lot of stomach for both genocide and occupation! They see nothing wrong with it because they do not see their victims as human!

I really don't understand what definition of fascism is being used here. One that doesn't apply to any of the Axis Powers, I guess? Just a system of government that magically collapses on its own, and definitely doesn't take years of war and 10s of millions of deaths to bring to a stop?

Not "stomach the genocide and occupation", but stomach the political, social, and economic costs of maintaining an active military occupation. I don't think if, given the option, your average israeli would hesitate to push a button that would immediately slaughter every Palestinian man, woman, and child. Like I said, I think the pressure of an active military occupation against an embedded and effective resistance will cause fractures and the fractures won't be "we should stop the genocide because the Palestinians are people too", it'll be "those backstabbing Arab-lovers in likud/national unity/mafdal/otzma/whatever are preventing our Glorious Victory over the untermensch"

A fascist political project is an incredibly brittle political project, and also has a massive capacity for untrammeled death and destruction. It is inherently unstable and will collapse once it can't bear the weight of its own contradictions, and even if that happens quickly relatively to other political orientations it might not happen on the scale of a human lifetime. israel, I think/hope is getting there. I don't think this means by this time next year everyone will be living in a pluralistic secular Palestine, but I think that future historians may be able to point to Gaza as the beginning of the end of the zionist project.

Kagrenak
Sep 8, 2010

not a value-add posted:

What happens if Israel doesn’t comply with any of the measures? It seems like the genocidal rhetoric part of that will be another slam dunk case since Ben-Gvir immediately started posting childish and violent tweets after the news broke.

Basically nothing unless the US supports or at least doesn't actively block it. The ICJ has no independent enforcement ability and so relies on the UNSC to actually do anything about it. However this provisional ruling and almost certainty of continuing investigations will hopefully cause that to occur much sooner than it otherwise might have. We'll see how Biden responds over the next few weeks.

It's all painfully slow given the context but this is (yet again) fairly unprecedented waters for the I/P conflict

youcallthatatwist
Sep 22, 2013

not a value-add posted:

What happens if Israel doesn’t comply with any of the measures? It seems like the genocidal rhetoric part of that will be another slam dunk case since Ben-Gvir immediately started posting childish and violent tweets after the news broke.

Intrinsically? Nothing. The court has no enforcement power.

Practically there's a few implications, though. The UN has now issued legal precedence for how its member states should treat Israel. The more states deny that precedence, the harder it becomes for them to justify the UN as an institution. And despite general leftist doomsaying, I think a good chunk of the European countries will start to peel away support, as their primary allegiance will be to the UN over the US.

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

Kagrenak posted:

Basically nothing unless the US supports or at least doesn't actively block it. The ICJ has no independent enforcement ability and so relies on the UNSC to actually do anything about it. However this provisional ruling and almost certainty of continuing investigations will hopefully cause that to occur much sooner than it otherwise might have. We'll see how Biden responds over the next few weeks.

It's all painfully slow given the context but this is (yet again) fairly unprecedented waters for the I/P conflict

Just remember though that the US does not have a veto on ICJ rulings, only on UNSC resolutions, which an enforcement mechanism would not be.

Quantum Cat
May 6, 2007
Why am I in a BOX?WFT?!

I'd also point out that Ben-Gvir's relatively unimpeded efforts to funnel increasingly heavy weaponry to his affiliated settler militas has very arms transfers to the southern states on the eve of the civil war vibes to it.

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

not a value-add posted:

What happens if Israel doesn’t comply with any of the measures? It seems like the genocidal rhetoric part of that will be another slam dunk case since Ben-Gvir immediately started posting childish and violent tweets after the news broke.

The same thing that happened to Russia when they ignored the ICJ demand of halting their invasion a couple of years ago. Which was..... oh right, nothing :shrug:

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


image text goes here

Kalit posted:

The same thing that happened to Russia when they ignored the ICJ demand of halting their invasion a couple of years ago. Which was..... oh right, nothing :shrug:

I wouldn't say that exactly. If the US starts selling Patriot batteries and F-16s to Gaza, I think that would be a pretty positive outcome.

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

Kalit posted:

The same thing that happened to Russia when they ignored the ICJ demand of halting their invasion a couple of years ago. Which was..... oh right, nothing :shrug:

Russia is able to supply their own war effort through domestic manufacturing. Israel was so desperate for tank shells a few weeks ago that Biden had to bypass congress to supply them.

This is not some silver bullet to end the genocide but it is a good first step in Israel going the way of South Africa/Rhodesia.

Kagrenak
Sep 8, 2010

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

Just remember though that the US does not have a veto on ICJ rulings, only on UNSC resolutions, which an enforcement mechanism would not be.

An enforcement of the ICJ ruling would absolutely have to come from the security council. See article 94 of the UN charter:

https://legal.un.org/repertory/art94.shtml

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Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Kalit posted:

The same thing that happened to Russia when they ignored the ICJ demand of halting their invasion a couple of years ago. Which was..... oh right, nothing :shrug:

I don't know the full history of ICJ proceedings, but the fact that this happened is a notable. I'm not sure if would have happened even in, say, the 2010s.

That being said, I think you're justified in wondering how much international law really matters outside of window dressing. It's like a slow-moving process to get the will of the world to do something substantive.

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