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Misunderstood posted:Tell me, if Biden was airing grievance daily about the horrible mass civilian slaughter, instead of just mentioning it intermittently as he does now, if he was letting toothless UN resolutions pass through the Security Council, but the behind-the-scenes reporting said that he was totally supportive of the goal of destroying Hamas and urging Netanyahu to continue, would you find the public actions to be more relevant? Would you find the reporting of the private negotiations to be so questionable? I would gladly take your proposed version of our timeline. A world where Biden is openly blasting Israel and refusing to give them any military aid while secretly telling Bibi that he's a good boy and should keep it up would be great. Some real PUA poo poo. I'm sure Bibi would be happy knowing that Biden secretly supports him while publicly undermining him and increasing the chances of him ending up rotting in a jail cell. The US' massive public support of Israel has a chilling effect on pretty much every other government on the planet to do anything because the US is always there. Biden privately supporting Bibi but publicly rebuking Israel and supporting Palestine would have a massive negative effect on Bibi at both the international and domestic level. Plenty of countries are far more interested than the US in ending the war but the US consistently blocks any efforts to establish a peace that doesn't give Israel everything it wants. Additionally, Bibi is already facing a lot of criticism at home, having the country's biggest ally publicly blasting him would severely weaken him when he's already not particularly stable given his ongoing corruption charges and the effect of his previous policies on Israeli security.
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Jan 27, 2024 22:29
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I am pretty sure Israelis are under no illusion Biden is fond of Bibi. We are talking about a guy who is a key part of the global right wing/fascist movement that is led by Biden’s chief political opponent, and who actively worked with Republicans to undermine Democratic administrations. Israel is a politically polarized country. They understand partisan politics and the global ideological struggle and that Netanyahu and Biden are not on the same team. Edit: where you may have a point is, are they questioning Biden’s support for Israel, as opposed to Netanyahu himself (after all, a majority of them hate him too) and would they more if he was making these public statements. Still, the US’s preference for a quick peace is heavily covered (mostly disapprovingly) in Israeli media. And a large part of Netanyahu’s aversion to ending the war, outside of his naked greed and bloodlust, is that when the war ends, he will lose power, and when he loses power, he will almost certainly be imprisoned by Israel (which has a history of imprisoning former leaders who were criminals) or executed in The Hague. It’s within the realm of possibility that the only way to stop him might be to stop him. “Stop” in the sense we stopped Saddam in ‘91 “stop.” (USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST) Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 23:26 on Jan 27, 2024 |
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Jan 27, 2024 23:16
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Misunderstood posted:I am pretty sure Israelis are under no illusion Biden is fond of Bibi. We are talking about a guy who is a key part of the global right wing/fascist movement that is led by Biden’s chief political opponent, and who actively worked with Republicans to undermine Democratic administrations. Israel is a politically polarized country. They understand partisan politics and the global ideological struggle and that Netanyahu and Biden are not on the same team. I know that this poster can no longer respond, but posting this for the benefit of others: Biden has a history of fondness for Bibi Netanyahu and famously undercut both Clinton and Obama during his time as vice president--even going so far as to describe himself as "the best loving friend" Bibi had in Washington: Mother Jones posted:After Biden became vice president in 2009, he stuck with his “no daylight” stance. In a memoir published last year, Netanyahu wrote that Biden made his willingness to help clear during an early meeting in Washington. “You don’t have too many friends here, buddy,” Biden reportedly said. “I’m the one friend you do have. So call me when you need to.” B B fucked around with this message at 00:00 on Jan 28, 2024 |
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Jan 27, 2024 23:57
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B B posted:I know that this poster can no longer respond, but posting this for the benefit of others: Biden has a history of fondness for Bibi Netanyahu and famously undercut both Clinton and Obama during his time as vice president--even going so far as to describe himself as "the best loving friend" Bibi had in Washington: I have to admit, finding out he hosed over Hillary Clinton from the right was stunning.
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Jan 28, 2024 00:28
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Misunderstood posted:This is very important to remember. And according to that New York Times story above, it appears that negotiations are being done with an eye towards actually stopping the genocide, rather than the current war. The US doesn't want to sweep this under the rug, they want it to never happen again (and not on Israel's terms of total ethnic cleansing.) To build on this, what the US wants (again, this has been consistent US policy for decades) is the destruction of militant elements in Palestinian society along with the reining in of militant elements in Israeli society, leading to a peaceful coexistence between the two sides, in which Israel sets up the Palestinian Authority in control of a nominally-independent state controlling the remaining Palestinian territories with conditions in place to ensure that new state poses no real military threat to Israel. For what it's worth, Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Biden have honestly tried to pursue those goals, pressuring both sides to make concessions and settle on an actual deal. However, domestic political reasons have meant that the US has never really been able to put sufficient pressure on either side. Successive administrations have generally dealt with that by papering it over with a bunch of wishful thinking: in particular, they assumed that majorities on both sides fundamentally wanted peaceful coexistence based loosely on the current status quo, and that the primary factor blocking it was the hostility of Arab states and militant violence from the Palestinians, which forced both sides into radicalizing beyond where they really wanted to be. That's why, for example, Bush pressured the Israelis and Palestinians into allowing free and fair elections in Palestine even though neither side really wanted to. Both the Israelis and the PA wanted to bar Hamas from the elections, but the Bush administration was honestly convinced that the light of democracy would burn the militants' power away and reveal that the Palestinian people overwhelmingly preferred peaceful negotiation over militancy when given a fair choice. Of course, Bush turned out to be dead wrong there. Even though Israel ignored Bush's pressure and effectively barred people from voting for Hamas in areas under their control, Hamas still won a majority. As it turned out, Bush liked democracy in the Middle East a lot less when it didn't get the results he wanted, and his administration heavily encouraged Fatah to launch the resulting civil war. When it comes to the current situation, here's how it shakes out: the administration (and likely most of the US political class in general) doesn't think Israel should be killing Palestinian civilians, but they do think Israel should be destroying Hamas with military force. As such, the Biden administration does not want to stop the current war, they just want the Israeli forces to stop targeting civilians and take much more care to avoid collateral damage while killing militants. And it's not really clear that the American populace in general (or even Democrats in particular) necessarily disagrees with that position. Even if people say in a poll that they think Israel is being too harsh in Gaza, that doesn't necessarily mean they want an immediate ceasefire. Even if they say they sympathize with Palestinians, that doesn't mean they sympathize with Hamas. In general, supporting the continued existence of Hamas is still very much a minority position in the US, and I'm fairly certain Americans have yet to become convinced that bombing is an ineffective measure against terrorist insurgencies. And yeah, it's no surprise negotiations are going poorly. Both "ceasefire" and "engage in less heavy bombing of densely populated area" are still broadly unpopular in Israel, with 75% of Israeli Jews opposing the latter even if it's in response to US pressure. Kyrosiris posted:I feel like this is an element that is getting overlooked. A lot of people will generally be resistant to a narrative that someone or something they hold a positive opinion of - especially if it's an opinion formed through direct contact and interaction - is doing something heinous and wrong. I couldn't even begin to tell you how many times I've had to sit down and pull out mounds of receipts to rebuff acquaintances going "oh but they couldn't do that, they're such a nice person!" about people who've stalked and harassed me. The slow but noticeable (if you care to look) change in verbiage, candor, and posture has the same vibes as an abuse victim finally getting through to someone who's previously been gaslighting them about their abuser. There's also the fact that we've been taught to like Israel's methods far more than Hamas' methods. Islamist terrorists on foot or in cars rampaging through civilian communities massacring people with man-portable arms is something that, for decades, has largely been associated with Vile And Evil Monsters Who Just Want To Kill A Ton Of Innocent Westerners For No Reason. On the other hand, a professional military bombarding a city with artillery and aerial bombing while insisting that they're doing everything they can to minimize civilian casualties in this sad but necessary anti-terrorist operation? That's something Americans generally associate with Heroes Doing The Best They Can To Slay Those Inhuman Monsters Who're Probably Using Human Shields Or Something - not least because the US did quite a bit of that ourselves over the last couple of decades. There's a whole lot of cultural signaling involved, and that quite a bit to American perceptions of the conflict, which is how Israel has been able to consistently convince Americans it's acting in self-defense even when Palestinian casualties are two orders of magnitude larger than Israeli casualties.
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Jan 28, 2024 01:17
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Misunderstood posted:(USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST) Lmao wow, this explains so much.
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Jan 28, 2024 02:48
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Had some fantastic conversations with people where they talked to me about how the biden presidency was doomed and unsalvageable and would never recover from the disgrace of retreating and surrendering afghanistan to the taliban, and by now most of the people i had those discussions with have had some total goldfish brained rear end total event amnesia about it. so now i hear that the biden presidency is doomed and unsalvageable from its failure to act strongly enough against israeli genocide and total unrecoverable alienation of arab americans and i (seriously, actually) stopped them midway and said hold up, hold on, you gon to let me record this on my phone. i want to have it on tape so that when we talk about this in summer you don't get to have memory holed all of it
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Jan 28, 2024 03:12
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Staluigi posted:Had some fantastic conversations with people where they talked to me about how the biden presidency was doomed and unsalvageable and would never recover from the disgrace of retreating and surrendering afghanistan to the taliban, and by now most of the people i had those discussions with have had some total goldfish brained rear end total event amnesia about it. so now i hear that the biden presidency is doomed and unsalvageable from its failure to act strongly enough against israeli genocide and total unrecoverable alienation of arab americans and i (seriously, actually) stopped them midway and said hold up, hold on, you gon to let me record this on my phone. i want to have it on tape so that when we talk about this in summer you don't get to have memory holed all of it In terms of his approval rating, they have never recovered from the decrease following the botched withdrawal.  https://www.axios.com/2022/08/15/afghanistan-withdrawal-anniversary-biden-approval
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Jan 28, 2024 03:28
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Also worth noting that Joe Biden continues to be historically unpopular: We're a little less than ten months away from knowing if his presidency really is "doomed and unsalvageable" as your acquaintances/friends are arguing, but things certainly are not going great from the perspective of the public's perception of the Biden presidency.
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Jan 28, 2024 03:35
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Maybe let’s wait for a few unhinged Trump rants and maybe people will be like “Yeah I’m not dealing with that crazy for 4 years.” and perhaps they vote Biden
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Jan 28, 2024 03:39
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Staluigi posted:Had some fantastic conversations with people where they talked to me about how the biden presidency was doomed and unsalvageable and would never recover from the disgrace of retreating and surrendering afghanistan to the taliban, and by now most of the people i had those discussions with have had some total goldfish brained rear end total event amnesia about it. so now i hear that the biden presidency is doomed and unsalvageable from its failure to act strongly enough against israeli genocide and total unrecoverable alienation of arab americans and i (seriously, actually) stopped them midway and said hold up, hold on, you gon to let me record this on my phone. i want to have it on tape so that when we talk about this in summer you don't get to have memory holed all of it Thanks for the anecdote. What are your thoughts regarding the future of the Biden presidency, given his historic unpopularity and low approval ratings?
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Jan 28, 2024 04:31
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The Top G posted:Thanks for the anecdote. What are your thoughts regarding the future of the Biden presidency, given his historic unpopularity and low approval ratings? He’s going up against Trump who is even more unpopular, so it’s kind of a moot point.
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Jan 28, 2024 04:39
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Gatts posted:Maybe let’s wait for a few unhinged Trump rants and maybe people will be like “Yeah I’m not dealing with that crazy for 4 years.” and perhaps they vote Biden People tried that in 2016 and now women are being jailed for abortions and miscarriages.
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Jan 28, 2024 04:44
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Xiahou Dun posted:He’s going up against Trump who is even more unpopular, so it’s kind of a moot point. It is a common misconception that Trump is more unpopular than Biden. The data we have does not support this conclusion. The public dislikes both of them very much, but Joe Biden is somehow liked even less than Donald Trump:  
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Jan 28, 2024 04:50
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Yes, and most people still don’t think he’ll be the Republican nominee. Campaigning hasn’t started and Trump has fallen out of view of people who don’t follow the news. This is very thoroughly well-trodden territory. It should probably go in that proposed electoralism thread.
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Jan 28, 2024 04:54
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Gatts posted:Maybe let’s wait for a few unhinged Trump rants and maybe people will be like “Yeah I’m not dealing with that crazy for 4 years.” and perhaps they vote Biden Maybe. He was screaming about how immigrants are poisoning the blood of America several weeks ago and now Biden is saying he wants the authority to shut down the border. In a sense Biden and the Democrats have acquiesced that the Republicans and Trump are correct to some extent.
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Jan 28, 2024 04:57
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usce don't rehash the polls argument for 24 hours challenge (impossible)
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Jan 28, 2024 04:59
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koolkal posted:Maybe. He was screaming about how immigrants are poisoning the blood of America several weeks ago and now Biden is saying he wants the authority to shut down the border. In a sense Biden and the Democrats have acquiesced that the Republicans and Trump are correct to some extent. And these same powers that Biden is asking for will inevitably be used by Trump.
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Jan 28, 2024 05:00
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Xiahou Dun posted:Yes, and most people still don’t think he’ll be the Republican nominee. Campaigning hasn’t started and Trump has fallen out of view of people who don’t follow the news. This may have been true before the primaries started, but most Americans expect Trump to be the nominee:  I'm not really interested in making any predictions about what's going to happen in November, but the data does show that Biden is less popular than Trump and it's also pretty clear at this point that Trump is going to be the GOP nominee unless he dies.
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Jan 28, 2024 05:05
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Xiahou Dun posted:He’s going up against Trump who is even more unpopular, so it’s kind of a moot point. Unfortunately you're misinformed. Biden is more unpopular now than at any point in Trump's presidency. I think it's only just starting to sink in how much self-inflicted damage Joe has done. https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/trump-tops-opponents-biden-hits-new-low-approval/story%3fid=106335244 quote:Joe Biden's job approval rating has dropped to a low for any president in the past 15 years, a new ABC News/Ipsos poll finds. Xiahou Dun posted:Yes, and most people still don’t think he’ll be the Republican nominee. Campaigning hasn’t started and Trump has fallen out of view of people who don’t follow the news. This is your opinion, not fact. Not appropriate for D&D. Internalize and accept the data and the reality of the track Biden is on at this time. FistEnergy fucked around with this message at 05:12 on Jan 28, 2024 |
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Jan 28, 2024 05:09
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B B posted:This may have been true before the primaries started, but most Americans expect Trump to be the nominee: I agree. At this point I would make Trump a 60/40 favorite in November based on the polling and the downward trajectory of Biden's term. Which is a breathtaking failure for an administration that was given the incredible gift of following Trump.
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Jan 28, 2024 05:16
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The polls that are still as predictive as a ouija board. Again : this argument is done to death and should get its own thread.
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Jan 28, 2024 05:24
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The way people have been voting in actual elections is not really consistent with Biden being the least popular president ever.
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Jan 28, 2024 05:26
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Of course Biden's unpopular. But it's not because of Israel or Afghanistan or any of the other poo poo that keeps getting brought up here.  But let's not stop there. Let's break it down and see exactly how Americans ranked the issues:  Looks to me like Americans don't give a flying gently caress about foreign policy, healthcare, wealth inequality, and so on. According to this, if Biden wants to recover his approval rating and get reelected in 2024, he should stop loving around with stuff like climate change legislation or student loan cancellation or poverty reduction programs, and get cracking on the three issues voters found most important:
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Jan 28, 2024 05:26
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James Garfield posted:I mean what did they expect to happen. Fetterman does that on every issue, it was one of the things people were praising about him during the 2022 election. Yeah, people loved him around here when he was hanging rainbow flags in the PA capitol. Funny how the tone changed.  He lived in Braddock and in York before that. His contituents are Pennsyltucky through and through, so you're going to get immigration fears, pro-Israel, capitalism-centered pro-Labor / union stuff, and 'keep our American jobs' rhetoric. He's a really accurate representation of his constituents, honestly. They voted for (and received) exactly what it says on the tin with him. It's a little refreshing to see someone actually get who they voted for, to be honest.
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Jan 28, 2024 05:26
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FistEnergy posted:I agree. At this point I would make Trump a 60/40 favorite in November based on the polling and the downward trajectory of Biden's term. Which is a breathtaking failure for an administration that was given the incredible gift of following Trump. I think 80/20's more realistic. Biden was helped immensely by COVID in 2020, not just in how it caused Trump to self-harm his campaign but in that it allowed the Biden campaign to hide it's weakest assett, the candidate himself. A full proper campaign is only going to highlight Biden's weaknesses and the inate desire to give Trump as much airtime as possible/horserace everything works to Trump's favor. Pinning your hopes on the criminal cases to stop Trump is fool's hope and once he's formally named the nominee, now or at the RNC, that goes by the wayside. Biden's hopes is that the Supreme Court acts, which I wouldn't bet on, or that Trump's cognitive decline outpaces his own.
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Jan 28, 2024 05:37
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Xiahou Dun posted:The polls that are still as predictive as a ouija board. The polls we are talking about (favorability polls, specifically) are not aimed at predicting the results of an election. They're aimed at measuring sentiment. In this case, they clearly and consistently show that the American public doesn't really like Biden or Trump, but they like Biden less than they like Trump. I agree that it doesn't make much sense to try to predict the results of the election right now. It doesn't seem like much of a stretch to say that Biden is very unpopular. It is striking to me that he's less popular than Trump--that does seem like quite the feat to me--but the data offers no reason to doubt it. James Garfield posted:The way people have been voting in actual elections is not really consistent with Biden being the least popular president ever. People haven't voted for Joe Biden since 2020. Joe Biden can be very unpopular at the same time that the Democratic Party retakes the state legislature in Virginia (or similar results that oc4cured in any number of other states) without giving credit to Biden, for instance. If anything, that's something that happened in spite of Biden's historic unpopularity, not because people secretly like him while telling pollsters they don't. B B fucked around with this message at 05:41 on Jan 28, 2024 |
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Jan 28, 2024 05:37
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USCE 2023: Please let them shove this poll up your butt Edit: The whole topic has been beaten to death. None of it matters right now. Polling is just speculation until some magical day between now and election day when it's not anymore.
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Jan 28, 2024 05:49
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Trump's going to lose this election so bad it's not even funny.
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Jan 28, 2024 06:25
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small butter posted:Trump's going to lose this election so bad it's not even funny. I’d  Because it’s a very, very safe bet
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Jan 28, 2024 06:30
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The Top G posted:Thanks for the anecdote. What are your thoughts regarding the future of the Biden presidency, given his historic unpopularity and low approval ratings? the only novel commentary or observation i can add to all the poo poo that's already been said about this is that "historic unpopularity" can no longer mean anything it would have meant in any earlier american political era it will actually be weird having any president hold a positive approval rating. comparisons to the approval rating of earlier presidents won't matter worth a poo poo, and we don't have a calibrated measurement of what kind of negative approval rating matters enough
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Jan 28, 2024 06:32
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I'd say the next time we'd get a president with an approval rate above 60%, maybe even 55%, would be a Republican president in another 9/11 scenario. Even then a Democrat wouldn't get any approval from the GOP side.
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Jan 28, 2024 06:37
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small butter posted:Trump's going to lose this election so bad it's not even funny. Everyone thought this in 2016. In 2020 he barely lost in a few key states.
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Jan 28, 2024 08:11
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Staluigi posted:Had some fantastic conversations with people where they talked to me about how the biden presidency was doomed and unsalvageable and would never recover from the disgrace of retreating and surrendering afghanistan to the taliban, and by now most of the people i had those discussions with have had some total goldfish brained rear end total event amnesia about it. so now i hear that the biden presidency is doomed and unsalvageable from its failure to act strongly enough against israeli genocide and total unrecoverable alienation of arab americans and i (seriously, actually) stopped them midway and said hold up, hold on, you gon to let me record this on my phone. i want to have it on tape so that when we talk about this in summer you don't get to have memory holed all of it I mean, people upset about Afghanistan and people upset about Palestine are a Venn Diagram with visually imperceptible overlap. Plus, being angry because "the colors dun run" is at a very different level of sticking in the brain as being angry because large numbers of your relatives are now dead. Biden losing explicitly because of Israel getting continued massacre assists from the US is unlikely. However if he does lose Michigan it'll probably be at or near the top of the reasons why. B B posted:It is a common misconception that Trump is more unpopular than Biden. The data we have does not support this conclusion. The public dislikes both of them very much, but Joe Biden is somehow liked even less than Donald Trump: We've entered a magical era of politics where what matters isn't which candidate has the higher unfavorables. What matters is which candidate has more voters who hate them so much they'll vote for the other candidate they also hate. Trump's numbers are almost perfectly stratified into people who worship him as a god and people who curse him as a devil. Virtually nobody has mild views on whether they like him or not, and are willing to vote the other way of their favorability. Instead everyone is willing to crawl over broken glass naked in order to either vote for or against him. Biden's disapproval numbers are deceptively high. His unfavorablity rating contains a significant number of voters who both really wish virtually anyone else was the candidate, and are never the less resigned to vote for this gently caress. His entire campaign since 2020 is being the guy who people not voting for Trump grudgingly accept. In Biden's defense, he's working tirelessly to solidify those unfavorable ratings to make it a more fair comparison. Plus, while most people seem to have accepted that Trump is going to be the Republican nominee, those who still haven't faced reality are overwhelmingly Democrats and aligned Independents. Which gives people more cover to disapprove of Biden and hope for a magical candidate substitution for their Ideal Unnamed Democrat. Gyges fucked around with this message at 09:51 on Jan 28, 2024 |
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Jan 28, 2024 09:49
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Fart Amplifier posted:Everyone thought this in 2016. In 2020 he barely lost in a few key states. In 2016 he barely won in a few key states. I know it was a tremendous fuckup and Clinton was impressively bad as a candidate but I feel like there's this retcon where Trump stormed to an historic, Reaganesque victory, rather than squeaking in by a narrow margin of votes
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Jan 28, 2024 09:53
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Gyges posted:Biden's disapproval numbers are deceptively high. His unfavorablity rating contains a significant number of voters who both really wish virtually anyone else was the candidate, and are never the less resigned to vote for this gently caress. His entire campaign since 2020 is being the guy who people not voting for Trump grudgingly accept. In Biden's defense, he's working tirelessly to solidify those unfavorable ratings to make it a more fair comparison. With a consistently significant number of "He'd be okay I guess if he wasn't so old, can't someone younger run? But not any of the younger candidates you just mentioned. Is Generic Democrat available?" responses. The only way Biden's age actually affects whether any of those vote is if someone younger is on the ballot, like if Trump somehow doesn't make it.
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Jan 28, 2024 10:36
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Ms Adequate posted:In 2016 he barely won in a few key states. I know it was a tremendous fuckup and Clinton was impressively bad as a candidate but I feel like there's this retcon where Trump stormed to an historic, Reaganesque victory, rather than squeaking in by a narrow margin of votes Depending on the narrative you want to present it’s all true, really: quote:This election has been rife with paradoxes, chief among them the discrepancy between the popular vote, which Hillary Clinton won by 2.8 million votes, and the electoral college, where Trump won 304-227. Despite the seeming magnitude of the latter, Cook Political Report has shown that just three counties, representing 77,759 voters in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, determined the outcome of the election. From here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/realsp...sh=335442501661
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Jan 28, 2024 11:05
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The Top G posted:Depending on the narrative you want to present it’s all true, really: That's hardly an unprecedented "paradox", Biden also won by only 44k votes: quote:The tight races in the trio of states had a big electoral impact. As NPR's Domenico Montanaro has put it, "just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College." I know polls aren't 100% predictors of actual elections especially now but Trump not polling at 0% (as you would expect considering, well, everything) combined with poo poo like this is what makes me sweat sometimes
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Jan 28, 2024 12:09
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Biden also has to deal with the same pernicious right-wing framing that persists in US media and on social media. I think factoring that in, it's honestly incredible he's polling above 20%.
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Jan 28, 2024 14:27
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mobby_6kl posted:That's hardly an unprecedented "paradox", Biden also won by only 44k votes: The thing about the "narrow victory" narrative (even though Biden comfortably won the Electoral College) is that it's presented as if the necessary vote difference is part of some kind of continuous totality when it's actually separate states. According to the article, if Biden lost 3 specific states out of the 5, it would have been a tie. But the chance of this lining up so perfectly for Trump is less than "Trump gets this difference in votes in this total pool of votes that we've calculated." States have their own politics, their own cycles, their own campaigns and funding, the GOP collapsed in some states (MI, AZ) but not in others (WI), etc. Also, for what it's worth, it's not that polls "aren't 100% predictors of actual elections" this far out - they are quite literally a coin toss no matter how consistent the results are. As in, they have zero predictive value. They start having some predictive value starting 200 days out (which is around May) and increase linearly until the final day of the election. Don't forget Clinton polling +10 to +15 the summer of 2016 only to then lose. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/28/upshot/fight-the-temptation-to-pay-attention-to-polls.html https://archives.cjr.org/united_states_project/its_way_too_early_for_2016_polls_to_be_predictive.php quote:The political scientists Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien have shown that this pattern of early inaccuracy is consistent across the post-World War II era. Trial heat polls measuring support for potential general election candidates even 300 days from an election have virtually no predictive power in forecasting the final vote. (We are currently more than 650 days away.) It’s not until near the end of primary season — mid-April of 2016, or approximately 200 days from Election Day — that polls start to be useful predictors, they find. Fart Amplifier posted:Everyone thought this in 2016. In 2020 he barely lost in a few key states. We weren't fully paying attention in 2016. One of the best predictors of who will win the presidency are the special elections that precede the presidential election. In 2023, we swung elections by +11 and did well in 2022 as well. Did you notice the Democrats kept losing the House, the Senate, and most of the elections in between leading up to 2016? In retrospect, we should have known that we were in a far worse position than we thought we were in. I will keep saying that the primary reason Clinton lost was that she was a woman and a very hated one at that. Biden does not inspire this level of hate in voters. So, I'm showing the historical reasons why Biden will win (special elections) and why polls don't matter yet. But come on. Trump lost before, he and Republicans kept losing since 2017, he has 91 charges against him spanning 4 felony trials, he was just ordered to pay another $83m for defaming E Jean Carroll after lying about raping her and she will go on and talk about it throughout the summer and he has to keep his mouth shut, and probably one hundred other things that are so, so bad for Trump. New stock market highs, inflation going down, rate cuts coming, we can go on. small butter fucked around with this message at 15:32 on Jan 28, 2024 |
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Jan 28, 2024 15:10
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