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small butter posted:The thing about the "narrow victory" narrative (even though Biden comfortably won the Electoral College) is that it's presented as if the necessary vote difference is part of some kind of continuous totality when it's actually separate states. According to the article, if Biden lost 3 specific states out of the 5, it would have been a tie. But the chance of this lining up so perfectly for Trump is less than "Trump gets this difference in votes in this total pool of votes that we've calculated." States have their own politics, their own cycles, their own campaigns and funding, the GOP collapsed in some states (MI, AZ) but not in others (WI), etc. They all have to depend to some degree on the overall perception of the dems/Biden. Let's say Biden did something dumb like accidentally kicking a puppy on live TV the week of the election. Could this not affect the turnout in all states a little? The biggest margin of those 3 states was 1.27% in Wisconsin. That's all you'd need, 1.27% of dems across the board deciding to stay home instead of voting for a puppy kicker. Still 80 million votes, still 6 million popular vote margin, but now 269 / 269 EV split  quote:So, I'm showing the historical reasons why Biden will win (special elections) and why polls don't matter yet. But come on. Trump lost before, he and Republicans kept losing since 2017, he has 91 charges against him spanning 4 felony trials, he was just ordered to pay another $83m for defaming E Jean Carroll after lying about raping her and she will go on and talk about it throughout the summer and he has to keep his mouth shut, and probably one hundred other things that are so, so bad for Trump. New stock market highs, inflation going down, rate cuts coming, we can go on.
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Jan 28, 2024 16:31
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small butter posted:https://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/28/upshot/fight-the-temptation-to-pay-attention-to-polls.html NYTimes posted:Why are polls so inaccurate for so long? The reality is that ordinary people pay very little attention to politics most of the time. Their responses to early survey questions are unconsidered and reflect factors like name recognition. Over time, however, the campaign eventually brings the state of the country into focus, drawing people’s voting intentions into line with their partisanship and their perceptions of the state of the economy. As a result, the polls tend to converge toward the result predicted by forecasting models based on the fundamentals. It does seem like part of the issue is that voters just aren't aware of the candidate or their message. Is that really true for a matchup of the past 2 presidents? Surely everyone by now has formed an opinion of both. I have to then imagine that the polls are likely more accurate now than they would normally be for an election between an incumbent and someone new or 2 new people. small butter posted:So, I'm showing the historical reasons why Biden will win (special elections) and why polls don't matter yet. But come on. Trump lost before, he and Republicans kept losing since 2017, he has 91 charges against him spanning 4 felony trials, he was just ordered to pay another $83m for defaming E Jean Carroll after lying about raping her and she will go on and talk about it throughout the summer and he has to keep his mouth shut, and probably one hundred other things that are so, so bad for Trump. New stock market highs, inflation going down, rate cuts coming, we can go on. Despite how much I harp on Biden, I think that these are the reasons he actually has a good shot at winning. The economy is starting to improve in a lot of ways that people will care about and will likely be in a much better place 10 months from now than it has been the past year. And any court-related news can only be bad for Trump. But I do think polls nowadays are accurate in the sense that if an election was held tomorrow, Trump would win.
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Jan 28, 2024 16:32
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small butter posted:New stock market highs, inflation going down, rate cuts coming, we can go on. Stock market highs are largely meaningless to normal people, the rate of Inflation is going down but the inflated prices are here to stay while wages have not increased in a commensurate manner, and the fed has been teasing the idea of rate cuts for a long while but has remained noncommittal and given them plenty of “outs” in all the statements they’ve given. From 2 weeks ago: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-waller-says-us-within-striking-distance-inflation-goal-2024-01-16/ If this was the entirety of Bidens achievements in office, I’d say his prospects are grim. You indicate that you have more achievements to highlight, so I would kindly ask you to continue
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Jan 28, 2024 17:17
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https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1751619039909048410 Quite hosed that a prominent member of the Democratic Party such as herself not only believes that a ceasefire is “Putin’s message” but also believes that Russia is financing some of the protests for Palestine without any evidence.
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Jan 28, 2024 17:23
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theCalamity posted:https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1751619039909048410 [Bull Connor Voice, But Wokely] now y’see we got some outside agitators stirring up our peaceful town
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Jan 28, 2024 17:26
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theCalamity posted:https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1751619039909048410 Wow, sounds like a large number of Democrat House and Senate members are bought by Putin.
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Jan 28, 2024 17:39
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A drone attack in Jordan killed three American soldiers and wounded two dozen others:CNN posted:First on CNN: Three US troops killed in drone attack in Jordan, at least two dozen injured
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Jan 28, 2024 17:48
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koolkal posted:Wow, sounds like a large number of Democrat House and Senate members are bought by Putin. In a slightly longer clip, she says that she wants to ask the FBI to investigate some of the protest groups https://twitter.com/wideofthepost/status/1751629652530020456
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Jan 28, 2024 17:58
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Yes Nancy, people calling for an end to violence in the Middle East are just being influenced by Russia, it's not possible that people would want to stop an ongoing genocide otherwise. the loving brainworms on her
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Jan 28, 2024 18:01
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its me, im the anti-genocide russian sleeper-cell
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Jan 28, 2024 18:26
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quote:Biden administration discussing slowing some weaponry deliveries to Israel to pressure Netanyahu Joe  World Famous W posted:its me, im the anti-genocide russian sleeper-cell
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Jan 28, 2024 18:31
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Putin, a well known agitator for less chaos in the world. Where the gently caress did this batch of brain diarrhea come from?
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Jan 28, 2024 18:31
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thank god russia got to biden and he's finally considering maybe holding a couple of bombs backhttps://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-administration-discussing-slowing-weaponry-deliveries-israel-pre-rcna136035 posted:Administration officials have also discussed offering the Israeli government more of the weaponry it has requested as an incentive to take some steps that the U.S. has requested, officials said. 
World Famous W fucked around with this message at 18:49 on Jan 28, 2024 |
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Jan 28, 2024 18:43
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theCalamity posted:In a slightly longer clip, she says that she wants to ask the FBI to investigate some of the protest groups this is really outrageous and anti-democratic. Do Pelosi/Biden/etc not realize how much damage they're doing to perceptions of America both home and abroad? Or do they just not care? I'm guessing it's the latter. Their greatest strength and election platform was contrasting their behavior with Trump's, and they have intentionally thrown that advantage right in the dumpster numerous times since 2020. It's both inexplicable and incredible!
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Jan 28, 2024 18:43
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Professor Beetus posted:Yes Nancy, people calling for an end to violence in the Middle East are just being influenced by Russia, it's not possible that people would want to stop an ongoing genocide otherwise. the loving brainworms on her uh huh, so quick to dismiss her discoveries, arent u professorski beetusovich
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Jan 28, 2024 18:46
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nancy, unironically: a second trump presidency would be great for dem fundraising
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Jan 28, 2024 18:49
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I get the want for the Democratic Party to be better but the simple fact is both parties basically agree on I/P. Can we stop acting surprised when Biden/Pelosi/etc all say the same thing every politician has been saying forever on the subject. We can't change their mind but we can fill every office possible with younger less-indoctrinated people to have a louder voice against them.
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Jan 28, 2024 18:54
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Russia absolutely has a histoery of funding and provoking people over worthwhile causes butnin the worst possible way, though, they have been pretty content agnostic. I wouldnt be surprised if they were influencing the cinversation, much like many other groups, in a way they felt best served their interests, and its easy to see how this could serve their interests. Just like when the US does good things for self serving reasons, it's worthwhile recognizing that and also being aware because even when they are doing what you want right out their interests are NOT yours and you should be wary of giving them leverage
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Jan 28, 2024 19:13
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bird food bathtub posted:Putin, a well known agitator for less chaos in the world. Protesting against the current administration and eroding support in the aims of throwing the election to Trump are definitely things Putin wants. Terror attacks against Israel have been one of the biggest boons to Putin in the whole war against Ukraine.
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Jan 28, 2024 19:14
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Bashez posted:Protesting against the current administration and eroding support in the aims of throwing the election to Trump are definitely things Putin wants. Alright, so it's something Putin wants. It doesn't mean Russia is organizing/funding some of the protests. At any rate, Pelosi calling for the FBI to investigate protestors is extremely alarming.
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Jan 28, 2024 19:20
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theCalamity posted:Alright, so it's something Putin wants. It doesn't mean Russia is organizing/funding some of the protests. Not sure what the proper way of keeping an eye of that is, but yeah publicly accusing what are probably mostly good-faith protests is a pretty bad move.
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Jan 28, 2024 19:26
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Just ignore it? Unless she seriously believes that a vast majority of people calling for a ceasefire are being manipulated by Putin it's pretty clear that this is how people feel and Putin is at best pushing the # of protests a few % higher. It goes back to the 2016 election where everyone was screaming about Russia influencing the election when their total contribution was monetarily single digit %s compared to the RWM machine. I can guarantee you Musk's ownership of Twitter is having more influence than Putin nowadays. The vast majority of Democrats that are for a ceasefire are because they don't want people to needlessly die. Not because of Daddy Putin. She's just an absolutely deranged senile old nutjob koolkal fucked around with this message at 19:44 on Jan 28, 2024 |
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Jan 28, 2024 19:39
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mobby_6kl posted:Well it doesn't mean russia isn't doing it, either. Pelosi is being paranoid. Publicly accusing protestors of being financed by Russia is already a very bad thing to do, but to also want to get the FBI involved is terrifying. A read of this entire situation is that because she was protested by Pro-Palestine people, she wants them investigated by the FBI. Entertaining the notion that Russia might be financing some of the protests without any evidence is useless and thinking like a conspiracy theorist
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Jan 28, 2024 19:59
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Retro42 posted:I get the want for the Democratic Party to be better but the simple fact is both parties basically agree on I/P. Can we stop acting surprised when Biden/Pelosi/etc all say the same thing every politician has been saying forever on the subject. We can't change their mind but we can fill every office possible with younger less-indoctrinated people to have a louder voice against them. The entire purpose of the Democratic Party as an institution is to prevent that from happening. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 28, 2024 20:05
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theCalamity posted:https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1751619039909048410 Eh, she's probably not wrong. Putin has become very pro-Hamas for larger geopolitical reasons, and we know that his administration has a history of attempting to exert political influence in the US by funding and supporting various groups that oppose mainstream US political stances, especially on things like foreign policy, while also using social media and propaganda outlets to spread anti-establishment messages. It's unlikely that this is primarily responsible for the protests, but I'd be shocked if Russia wasn't at least trying to help out in the very few ways it's capable of doing. I can't even really blame her for being suspicious about the protests. As someone who's been in politics for decades, she's extremely familiar with how the vast majority of the American people, historically, have never given the slightest poo poo about Palestine. The fact that people are out there protesting against the slaughter of innocent Palestinians by the Israeli army is just another sign of how absolutely bonkers US politics have gotten in the past few years; something like that would have been unthinkable a decade ago.
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Jan 28, 2024 20:15
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Main Paineframe posted:Eh, she's probably not wrong. Putin has become very pro-Hamas for larger geopolitical reasons, and we know that his administration has a history of attempting to exert political influence in the US by funding and supporting various groups that oppose mainstream US political stances, especially on things like foreign policy, while also using social media and propaganda outlets to spread anti-establishment messages. It's unlikely that this is primarily responsible for the protests, but I'd be shocked if Russia wasn't at least trying to help out in the very few ways it's capable of doing. If she's not wrong and you can't blame her for going on national television and claiming Putin is funding the protests, can you provide any evidence for her claims other than vibes?
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Jan 28, 2024 20:25
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Raiad posted:The entire purpose of the Democratic Party as an institution is to prevent that from happening. Watching what's going on with the Republican party dealing with it's radical wing getting way too much power, I can almost kinda see what they're so worried about.
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Jan 28, 2024 20:33
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Main Paineframe posted:I can't even really blame her for being suspicious about the protests. As someone who's been in politics for decades, she's extremely familiar with how the vast majority of the American people, historically, have never given the slightest poo poo about Palestine. The fact that people are out there protesting against the slaughter of innocent Palestinians by the Israeli army is just another sign of how absolutely bonkers US politics have gotten in the past few years; something like that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. ?? People have been protesting against the US bombing countries and wiping out swathes of people for decades. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_State_shootings Unless.. did Putin fund those too?? My god... he's been playing the long game. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) koolkal fucked around with this message at 20:39 on Jan 28, 2024 |
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Jan 28, 2024 20:36
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B B posted:If she's not wrong and you can't blame her for going on national television and claiming Putin is funding the protests, can you provide any evidence for her claims other than vibes? That's the wrong question. The important question isn't "is Russia supported pro-Palestine protesters?", it's "does it matter if Russia is supporting pro-Palestine protesters?" Russia supported Black Lives Matter too, but discounting that as a fake movement or a Russian astroturf would be silly. Foreign influence is always going to be a thing, but it's almost never capable of actually inventing a movement out of nothing. While it's important to account for that foreign impact, it can't be used to dismiss the movement entirely. koolkal posted:?? They haven't been protesting against Israel doing it, though!
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Jan 28, 2024 20:43
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Main Paineframe posted:They haven't been protesting against Israel doing it, though! They literally are, right now.
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Jan 28, 2024 20:45
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koolkal posted:They literally are, right now. Hence the use of the word « historically » I imagine
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Jan 28, 2024 20:48
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Main Paineframe posted:That's the wrong question. The important question isn't "is Russia supported pro-Palestine protesters?", it's "does it matter if Russia is supporting pro-Palestine protesters?" Nah, it just seems like you don't want to answer the question. So again: do you have any proof that the Russians are currently funding or organizing any of the protests in America against Israel's ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians in Gaza? I am asking because you've claimed that Nancy Pelosi is "not wrong" to make this claim and you "can't blame her" for asserting this on national television. I think this is an area of the forums where we're supposed to support our claims.
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Jan 28, 2024 20:48
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theCalamity posted:Alright, so it's something Putin wants. It doesn't mean Russia is organizing/funding some of the protests. This is an extremely uncharitable reading of what Pelosi said. She misspoke and said that the some of the "protestors" are "organic" so given the grammar mistake, she meant "protests," and then she said to investigate the financing of the "protests." As it's been pointed out, obviously Russia may be playing a role in organizing some of these protests like they did in 2016. Obviously the protests are good for Putin and taking eyes off of Ukraine. Russia obviously cares little about Palestinians, rule of law, human rights, etc. so clearly anything that they do is with the intent to help Russia and harm the West. Edit: the only people who can be found guilty of anything within an investigation are people who took foreign money or, like, spies. You going out and protesting for a ceasefire isn't going to catch anyone's eye.
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Jan 28, 2024 20:50
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Hence the use of the word « historically » I imagine Yes, the views of a country can change over time. Are you saying all of these are historically influenced by outside forces? The vast majority of Americans didn't give the slightest poo poo about black people either for most of US history. Should we assume the Civil Rights Movement was actually Soviet-funded agitation, like people used to say? poo poo, this is probably where ole Nancy got the idea! koolkal fucked around with this message at 21:00 on Jan 28, 2024 |
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Jan 28, 2024 20:57
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small butter posted:This is an extremely uncharitable reading of what Pelosi said. She misspoke and said that the some of the "protestors" are "organic" so given the grammar mistake, she meant "protests," and then she said to investigate the financing of the "protests." Then allow me to correct myself: At any rate, Pelosi calling for the FBI to investigate the activists organizing these protests is extremely alarming. small butter posted:As it's been pointed out, obviously Russia may be playing a role in organizing some of these protests like they did in 2016. Obviously the protests are good for Putin and taking eyes off of Ukraine. Russia obviously cares little about Palestinians, rule of law, human rights, etc. so clearly anything that they do is with the intent to help Russia and harm the West. Russia may be playing a role, but there's no evidence of that and it's entirely unsubstantiated. And even if they played a role in some of these protests, it does not diminish the importance of these protests. To me, bringing Russia into this feels like a way to discredit the protests.
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Jan 28, 2024 21:07
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pro-palestine/anti-israel protests aren't exactly a new phenomenon either, i live in houston and one of my pre-political memories is seeing people protesting outside of the israeli consulate here during the second intifada - the consulate is right around the corner from a movie theater and i would see people there pretty often when i was coming into or out of the theater. and then of course during subsequent outbreaks of fighting (protective edge, pillar of defense, cast lead) there would be protesters as well. now my sense from seeing these is that they are getting bigger over time, but it's not like they havent' been happening for decades.
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Jan 28, 2024 21:08
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small butter posted:Edit: the only people who can be found guilty of anything within an investigation are people who took foreign money or, like, spies. You going out and protesting for a ceasefire isn't going to catch anyone's eye.
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Jan 28, 2024 21:11
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There is ample circumstantial evidence of Russia being involved in the protests - many of the specifics have murky sources the people propagating them refuse to cite their sources, the stuff seems to be showing up more quickly among groups I know from previous instances are tapped into Russian propaganda streams, and Russia has involved themselves in these types of movements in the past, and theres clear motivation. Now, none of that is definitive, but its enough to say it should probably be investigated, because its worth knowing and an investigation is how you *get* direct evidence. The last several times it took months to years of investigation for the direct evidence to come out, and I dont see why this time would be any different. Again, thoufh, the question is whether that matters, and the answer is probably not - but I do think it matters, because if there is Russian influence their goals are not actually going to be to help the movement to succeed, but to increase friction between the movement and anyone capable of making positive change, like their previous involvement with other movements. Ideally the investigation would come from left sympathetic news investigators, not the FBI, but good luck finding any of those GlyphGryph fucked around with this message at 21:15 on Jan 28, 2024 |
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Jan 28, 2024 21:13
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GlyphGryph posted:There is ample circumstantial evidence of Russia being involved in the protests - many of the specifics have murky sources the people propagating them refuse to cite their sources, the stuff seems to be showing up more quickly among groups I know from previous instances are tapped into Russian propaganda streams, and Russia has involved themselves in these types of movements in the past, and theres clear motivation. Could you share some links? Thanks 😊
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Jan 28, 2024 21:14
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mobby_6kl posted:Sure they are separate states, but the results in each aren't like completely independent random events either. Counterpoint: the only reason the Republicans won the House in 2022 was Democrats' underperformance in NY and CA (the Republican got within like 5-6% of the Democratic governor in NY which is unheard of). So again the issue is the 1.27% margin getting replicated in multiple states in favor of Trump. Some of these states have seen the GOP collapse. Some of these states will have abortion rights ballot initiatives in 2024. Some will be harder. But Trump is going to have to run the gauntlet to get this done. koolkal posted:It does seem like part of the issue is that voters just aren't aware of the candidate or their message. Is that really true for a matchup of the past 2 presidents? Surely everyone by now has formed an opinion of both. I have to then imagine that the polls are likely more accurate now than they would normally be for an election between an incumbent and someone new or 2 new people. Well, according to the latest poll of Democrats, only half thought that Trump will be the nominee, and something like 2/3rds of Republicans resigned themselves to this. Trump will 100% be the nominee barring incapacitation. Speaking of the last two election cycles actually undermines the idea that voters knew who they'd vote for early because they knew who the candidates were. In 2016, I recall Clinton getting polls like +15 that summer. Of course everyone knew who Clinton and Trump were. But Clinton ended up losing as the polls closed to around +3 in the fall. koolkal posted:But I do think polls nowadays are accurate in the sense that if an election was held tomorrow, Trump would win. I never liked the "if the election was held now" hypothetical because it assumes the impossible, no campaign, and hoists a surprise on the voters. Like stated earlier, many voters are not aware that Trump will be the Republican nominee. The Top G posted:Stock market highs are largely meaningless to normal people, the rate of Inflation is going down but the inflated prices are here to stay while wages have not increased in a commensurate manner, and the fed has been teasing the idea of rate cuts for a long while but has remained noncommittal and given them plenty of “outs” in all the statements they’ve given. From 2 weeks ago: Stock market highs are meaningful in the sense of changing the perception of the economy. We have voters saying that they feel good about their own financial situation but bad about the economy in general, which doesn't exactly make sense. It's 100% the case that a booming stock market in 2020 helped Trump at least somewhat. It will take the S&P to reach around 5400 (a little over 10% more) to match Trump's ~40% performance in 2016-2021. Rate cuts are almost certainly coming either this week or at the next two Fed meetings, mere months away. Soft landing achieved. Congrats, Biden! Do we really have to go through Biden's achievements? 1. Biggest climate bill in American history; on track to meet Paris Climate targets 2. Biggest spending bill in generations; biggest spending on the poor since LBJ 3. Biggest infrastructure bill in generations 4. Minimum corporate taxes introduced 5. Reduced prescription drug prices including insulin 6. Neutered Russia with 5% of our military spending; Ukraine did not and will not fall 7. Won every election cycle sans 2021 and "won" 2022 with the biggest inflation of my lifetime 8. Held Trump accountable (this will be the perception) 9. Stopped the Drone Wars; civilian deaths as a result of American strikes are at a generational low EDIT: 10. Forgave hundreds of billions of student loan debt 11. Brought down inflation and we have lower inflation than the EU 12. Jobs, jobs jobs I'm sure I'm missing quite a bit. EDIT: And this was all done with a split and mostly -split Senate. small butter fucked around with this message at 22:21 on Jan 28, 2024 |
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