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James Garfield posted:If Biden drop kicked a box of puppies into a volcano, he'd probably also lose votes in states that weren't decisive to the election. It would be really weird if 50k people in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin changed their votes and everything else was the same as 2020. The overall point I'm trying to make is that I think a relatively small change in perception of the candidate (Biden or Hillary too probably) could've resulted in a different outcome even though the total popular vote and EV margin seemed quite large. I haven't done the math but I think in terms of probabilities, this increases the likelihood of the outcome if we don't strictly require that all states lose the same amount of votes equally. I'll see if I can run some numbers tomorrow. For example as mentioned, you'd only need to lose 1.27% of the votes in one state and 0.6 and 0.5% (or more) in the two others. The rest doesn't matter, within reason. Let's say Biden kicks a box of puppies, and loses 1.3% in Wisconsin, 0.8% in Arizona and 1.0% in Georgia. That's it. It's not that the other states have to stay like in 2020, it's that they can, or they can have a bit more or less variability without affecting the final outcome. The next smallest margin was Pennsylvania with 2.33% so he could lose 2.3% or gain 5% or 0% and it wouldn't have an impact on the result.
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Jan 29, 2024 00:21
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Angry_Ed posted:Bad hypothetical considering Russia is eagerly awaiting the moment the Permafrost melts so they can get at all the siberian oil. Why do I give a poo poo what their reason is? If Im participating in a march with thousands of like minded people, the greater origins of the thing are almost certainly completely unknown to me. How frequently are you getting detailed funding documents when you go to a protest? Unless the charge is specifically that Russia is paying living human beings to come stand in a fake protest, a thousand people marching through town for a ceasefire is a thousand people marching through town for a ceasefire. Russia didn’t incept their sense of morality into them with subliminal messaging.
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Jan 29, 2024 00:30
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Whether the protests have some funding or boosting from Russian sources is in fact separable from whether they are justified / good. My personal takeaway is along the lines of "I should remain not totally credulous about the leaders of protests I involve myself in unless I definitely know a lot about them". The boosting side is whatever, outing Russian propaganda is always good but it's not exactly my fault if my demonstration in favor of free tax filing is picked up by Cyka Blyat Tiktok. unlike BLM and some Trump stuff this is also largely academic to me personally, there aren't and won't be any significant pro Palestine protests in my area
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Jan 29, 2024 00:43
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tbh I wouldn't mind the FBI investigating pro-Israel protests and Israel-linked organizations for potential "naughty with money" / undeclared foreign agent violations
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Jan 29, 2024 00:53
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Google Jeb Bush posted:tbh I wouldn't mind the FBI investigating pro-Israel protests and Israel-linked organizations for potential "naughty with money" / undeclared foreign agent violations That should be a position-neutral belief. It not being so would be horrendous.
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Jan 29, 2024 00:59
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celadon posted:Why do I give a poo poo what their reason is? If Im participating in a march with thousands of like minded people, the greater origins of the thing are almost certainly completely unknown to me. How frequently are you getting detailed funding documents when you go to a protest? Unless the charge is specifically that Russia is paying living human beings to come stand in a fake protest, a thousand people marching through town for a ceasefire is a thousand people marching through town for a ceasefire. Russia didn’t incept their sense of morality into them with subliminal messaging. Why would you not care why state actors do what they do? Do you ignore the reasoning behind the evil poo poo the US gets up to as well?
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Jan 29, 2024 01:00
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The Ionov case from last year might be informative in this regard, though the case is notable in that unlike most such efforts the person heading it was relatively inept and his main publicly identified project was in part the creation and empowerment of fringe groups (particularly state separatist movements) in the US to create material for propaganda use in areas other than the US; most such activities aren't so obvious even in retrospect. Discendo Vox posted:The US DoJ just released a sealed indictment for Aleksandr Ionov, a dude who basically ran an unusually overt international influence network for the FSB intended to promote Russian propaganda and recruit/create separatist movements in targeted countries (including Ukraine). Discendo Vox posted:A bunch of additional charges for US and Russian propaganda agents today.
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Jan 29, 2024 01:06
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celadon posted:If Russian funded climate change activists in the US cause they wanted downward pressure on US fossil fuel production, would the presence of Russian funding make the goal of reducing emissions bad? And if not, then why not evaluate these things on their merits rather than on allegations of shadowy backers? Because thats bot how it would work, has worked. They would back the groups efforts but also poisom the group, rhetorically pushing them away from making positive changes or inroads and pursue efforts most llikely to create division and conflict, and diminish actual understanding among members of the group in favour of something wven more incendiary and which, by virtue of being disconnected from reality, can never be adequately addressed. Basically the exact same poo poo we see dominating discourse now on the right. Again, this is not me defending Pelosi, this is me arguing that if you support these causes you should ABSOLUTELY care about outside forces using you as a way to forward their own agenda that is contrary to your actual goals. poo poo you might even accept the aid even if you know, but knowing and working to limit its influence is a bad choice if you care about good outcomes. Call Pelpsi an idiot all you want, but seriously arguing that we should be fine with a devils bargain is not okay, imo
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Jan 29, 2024 01:06
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socialsecurity posted:Why would you not care why state actors do what they do? Do you ignore the reasoning behind the evil poo poo the US gets up to as well? I think there’s a relatively significant difference between assigning nefarious intent behind innocuous acts and investigating the reasoning behind tangible and harmful ones. This is Russia doing something that is legal for all US citizens or members of allied states to do without issue. Not the same as ‘why did they burn down that village’.
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Jan 29, 2024 01:08
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Discendo Vox posted:That should be a position-neutral belief. It not being so would be horrendous. yeah and the connecting thought i neglected to post is: I think it's less likely the FBI will pursue it regarding Israel and that's bad
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Jan 29, 2024 01:09
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GlyphGryph posted:Because thats bot how it would work, has worked. They would back the groups efforts but also poisom the group, rhetorically pushing them away from making positive changes or inroads and pursue efforts most llikely to create division and conflict, and diminish actual understanding among members of the group in favour of something wven more incendiary and which, by virtue of being disconnected from reality, can never be adequately addressed. Basically the exact same poo poo we see dominating discourse now on the right. A case in point here might be Code Pink, which has undergone a pretty interesting shift in leadership and positions starting in about 2017 as funding for the group now heavily comes from Neville Roy Singham (and Singham is pretty well-documented as serving as a passthrough for Chinese propaganda projects at this point). Singham's married to the remaining founder. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 01:13 on Jan 29, 2024 |
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Jan 29, 2024 01:09
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celadon posted:I think there’s a relatively significant difference between assigning nefarious intent behind innocuous acts and investigating the reasoning behind tangible and harmful ones. So you are saying there's no reason to know why Russia wants to influence things certain ways? It seems weird to be almost proud about wanting to ignore intentions like that. If the US was legally funding protests in another country I would be very curious as to why.
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Jan 29, 2024 01:15
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socialsecurity posted:So you are saying there's no reason to know why Russia wants to influence things certain ways? It seems weird to be almost proud about wanting to ignore intentions like that. If the US was legally funding protests in another country I would be very curious as to why. I mean, given the history of the US' meddling in other countries, we know why. And we can assume the same for modern Russian meddling given their past history. It's not like there's some secret vast conspiracy or something, they just want to see a weaker America and promote pretty much every internal disfunction when possible. I would imagine there's Russian funding in pro and anti-abortion movements, pro and anti-immigration movements, etc. There's no reason to think they are particularly interested in any of these causes beyond their ability to promote already-existing divisions. I generally assume China, Russia, and the US have these little Internet-based organizations targeting most countries on the planet. Cosmic microwave background radiation.
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Jan 29, 2024 01:20
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socialsecurity posted:So you are saying there's no reason to know why Russia wants to influence things certain ways? It seems weird to be almost proud about wanting to ignore intentions like that. If the US was legally funding protests in another country I would be very curious as to why. If Russia is supporting protests to end a genocide that is backed by the United States then I fully support their actions probably the best thing they’ve done in a while. If this was real and not a cynical ploy to pretend this about anything other than democrats being mad that the genocide is hurting them electorally
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Jan 29, 2024 01:20
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SMEGMA_MAIL posted:If Russia is supporting protests to end a genocide that is backed by the United States then I fully support their actions probably the best thing they’ve done in a while. Sure what they are doing isn't bad here and I didn't say it is despite what motivations you are attempting to aim at me. I'm merely arguing against the idea that not Russian motivations is not a thing you would want to know.
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Jan 29, 2024 01:24
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Thing is though, I'm not sure they want the pro Palestine protests to be maximally successful, just to be divisive. Their objectives aren't just different from the vast majority of the protesters, they're potentially actively inimical. That's why I leaned on the idea that protesters should try to be aware of potential problems in that vein. Protesters, individually and as a group, making rational decisions with as much information as possible is a better remedy than the FBI stomping in and putting the money guys under a microscope. And might make it less damaging to the movement if/when the FBI does stomp in.
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Jan 29, 2024 01:26
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Google Jeb Bush posted:Thing is though, I'm not sure they want the pro Palestine protests to be maximally successful, just to be divisive. Their objectives aren't just different from the vast majority of the protesters, they're potentially actively inimical. Didn't think of that, reminds of when they would organize both left and right protests at the same place during the 2016 elections.
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Jan 29, 2024 01:28
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small butter posted:Let's say that the FBI credibly believes that some protests were funded by Russian money or had other forms of Russian organization as part of a Russian campaign to sow chaos (and let's agree it's not because Russia cares about the Palestinians). What should they do? You are mistaken, those protests were organized by George Soros to sow discord and chaos within America.
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Jan 29, 2024 01:42
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Personally, I think it’s natural to want to protest in response to the US supported atrocities in Israel. I myself attended a protest in support of Palestine, and so did many of my friends. None of us were paid by Russia to attend, we did it because it was the right thing to do. Is this such hard thing to imagine that you have to attribute it to foreign interference? Believe it or not, people feel strongly about these things and they are willing to take the time and effort to make their feelings known!
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Jan 29, 2024 01:47
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https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/28/us/politics/black-pastors-biden-gaza-israel.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare Black pastors pressuring Biden for a ceasefire. This one might actually move the noodle. Conveniently for the Biden admin, it also lands at a moment when negotiations are seeming... slightly less unpromising than a month ago.
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Jan 29, 2024 01:54
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The Top G posted:You are mistaken, those protests were organized by George Soros to sow discord and chaos within America. The Top G posted:Personally, I think it’s natural to want to protest in response to the US supported atrocities in Israel. I myself attended a protest in support of Palestine, and so did many of my friends. None of us were paid by Russia to attend, we did it because it was the right thing to do. Yes please tell us why you think that George Soros (rich dude / left-wing donor that a ton of anti-semites make conspiracy theories about because he is Jewish) is trying to sow discord and chaos within America. To everyone who steadfastly refuses to understand that you get associated with your allies, this is an example of the people you are walking arm in arm with and getting yourself and the organizations you are in generally associated with.
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Jan 29, 2024 01:58
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The Top G posted:Personally, I think it’s natural to want to protest in response to the US supported atrocities in Israel. I myself attended a protest in support of Palestine, and so did many of my friends. None of us were paid by Russia to attend, we did it because it was the right thing to do. Nobody here has made the argument you are arguing against.
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Jan 29, 2024 02:01
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Google Jeb Bush posted:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/28/us/politics/black-pastors-biden-gaza-israel.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare Gonna hold out for the FBI report to make sure this isn't
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Jan 29, 2024 02:03
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koolkal posted:?? Do you find it hard to believe that the Soviet Union supported the peace movement in the US during the Vietnam war? The peace movement was right The Soviets supported it The Soviets also waged war and suppressed internal dissent All of those things can be true. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...k7&opi=89978449 Edit - realised how many pages behind I am, if this was already hashed to death I apologise and I won't continue it.
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Jan 29, 2024 02:05
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12 years a lurker posted:Put yourself in Pelosi's shoes. You are a highly positioned, capable politician in the Democratic Party. There are a bunch of protests against Israel being attended by Arab immigrants and leftist activists. Some of these have gone bad; people protesting a cancer hospital, people screaming "Allahu Akbar" near ground zero and the White House, people shouting "from the river to the sea" in front of synagogues, people harassing jewish passers by, people blocking roads in Jewish neighborhoods, central parts of Manhattan, and to the biggest airport in NYC. You recognize that these events are doing tremendous damage with jewish voters and donors and much milder but nonzero damage with local moderates; the leftist activists being involved means some of the poop is getting on your party. What do you do? Did Pelosi say that some of these protests are fueled by anti-semitism? She didn't mention that as far as I'm aware. As it stands, Pelosi accused some of these protests as being funded by Russia without a shred of evidence, which is negatively connecting the Pro-Palestine movement with Russia. Also, lol at thinking Allahu Akbar is bad, even if said at ground zero. That's just straight up bigotry.
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Jan 29, 2024 02:15
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mobby_6kl posted:I'm not sure how this is a counterpoint? I'm not saying it's wrong I just don't see how it counters what I'm saying. Are you suggesting that a fuckup by the state party can tank the results in a state? The example that I gave was about either Democrats loving up or the local political winds blowing in the Republicans' favor. In the case of NY, it was alleged high crime and migrants getting sent in from the border. In this case, whatever was driving Democrats to wallop Republicans in the midterms throughout the country in historic fashion either did not materialize in NY and CA or was not in enough to overcome the local Republican advantage. My point is that the reverse can very much happen for Republicans, so strength that Trump may have in one of the three required states may not materialize in the other two. Yes, of course a non-local event like Biden kicking puppies would have an effect on all states in some way. But my point is that this event may or may not have a material effect on some individual states and that it's harder to lose votes in such a way to cost entire states/electoral votes than to lose votes from the popular vote pool. We're also talking about potential Biden gently caress ups but not Trump ones. Hence, Trump would have to bet on running a perfect campaign and Biden repeatedly stepping on rakes and it translating into losing multiple states. Trump will have to run the gauntlet to get those states back. Of course it's possible but I have serious doubts about Trump's ability to win. celadon posted:Nothing? Does determining that there was Russian funding somewhere behind a protest retroactively invalidate it? If ten thousand people show up and march for something that it is later discovered had ties to one of The Bad Guys, did those people not have the motivation and beliefs that led them to march? Like their concerns should be dismissed out of hand because of elements outside their control? No, a protest is not invalidated just because it's funded by a foreign power. No one here is saying that pro-Palestine/ceasefire protests are illegitimate. But you can't say "do nothing." If there is foreign interference, it should be investigated. Be honest with yourself: if a Russian spy like Marina Butina organizes or urges pro-gun protests in America for "our legitimate 2nd Amendment rights," you wouldn't blink an eye about her or any Russian money getting investigated. I'm sure that those protestors really DO love their guns and really DO love being a "well-regulated militia," but foreign powers fomenting these protests should be investigated. small butter fucked around with this message at 02:53 on Jan 29, 2024 |
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Jan 29, 2024 02:37
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small butter posted:I’m sure that those protestors really DO love their guns and really DO love being a "well-regulated militia," Eh. There was ample reason to believe the NRA was corrupt as hell before Butina became a news item.
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Jan 29, 2024 03:33
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Inferior Third Season posted:It sounds interesting, but please at least summarize the main points. Apologies! The video states that mainly the lack of certainty and stability young people face is the cause. Some examples it gives are: - The job market has become much more unstable, and many young starters are offered only flexible contracts or temporary contracts for a long period of time. - Inability to purchase a home. - A significant amount of people nowadays have a higher degree, which makes those degrees worth less (and at the same time affects those who don’t obtain a higher degree) - Loss of traditional groups as communities: social-democrats, Catholics, Protestants, liberals, etc. Notably, these groups used to have their own world: newspapers, news stations, sports organisations, political parties, etc. and offered a true sense of belonging. - Globalisation and immigration leads to a loss of national identity. - Young people are confronted with all sorts of crises every single day: environmental, immigration, political, etc. - Political crises also lead to a lack of faith in politics (e.g., in the Netherlands it was discovered that, at least since 2004, families were unjustly accused of fraud regarding different kinds of government support and were made to paid back the aid they needed and deserved). Young people don’t relate to politicians, don’t know them, and often don’t even know who exactly decides what. - Something that used to seem very certain, gender, has now also become something very fluid (and thus uncertain). More generally, it used to be the case that the ‘next generation’ was better off than the preceding one. That isn’t really true anymore. Because of all this uncertainty, young people are desperately looking for some stability, which is something that conservatism offers over being progressive. Basically, they’re pumping the brakes, trying to stop our society from changing so rapidly until they regain their balance. The video also points out that young people try to find stability in groups such as the farmer community, people with advanced degrees who deem themselves to belong to an elite, the LGBT community, the red pill community, the ‘trad wives’, etc. The solution, according to the video, is to bring back stability at least in terms of home ownership and the job market. I’m not sure if that’s enough to hold the tide, but it would definitely be a start.
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Jan 29, 2024 03:41
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theCalamity posted:Did Pelosi say that some of these protests are fueled by anti-semitism? She didn't mention that as far as I'm aware. As it stands, Pelosi accused some of these protests as being funded by Russia without a shred of evidence, which is negatively connecting the Pro-Palestine movement with Russia. No she did not state that. She took the "blame the Russians" route either because she has some insider information we don't, or because she realized it's really good politics right now to give the people being pushed away from the party by the protests who are experiencing cognitive dissonance seeing their side of the political aisle locking arms with the bad parts of the protests and desperately want any reason to believe that the protests don't represent the Democratic Party a potential reason they don't. Allahu Akbar is not a bad thing in all contexts but context matters and the combination of the location and the statement has an implication.
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Jan 29, 2024 04:05
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12 years a lurker posted:
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Jan 29, 2024 04:09
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12 years a lurker posted:
No this is dumb and bigoted. “Allahu Akbar” has been said and will be said a million more times by New York’s Muslim population than by terrorists, and the city doesn’t appreciate being used as a prop. It’s a very ignorant point and you should not make it.
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Jan 29, 2024 04:12
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12 years a lurker posted:
What's the implication?
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Jan 29, 2024 04:30
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theCalamity posted:What's the implication? It was what everyone old enough to remember 9/11 heard on TV by the people celebrating 9/11, very close to the site of 9/11. To be completely fair, without having been there and only knowing about it from the news, there is some nonzero possibility that the people involved were too young to know better.
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Jan 29, 2024 04:45
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12 years a lurker posted:It was what everyone old enough to remember 9/11 heard on TV by the people celebrating 9/11, very close to the site of 9/11. Welcome to the forums, President Donald Trump
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Jan 29, 2024 04:46
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12 years a lurker posted:It was what everyone old enough to remember 9/11 heard on TV by the people celebrating 9/11, very close to the site of 9/11. Literally did not happen my dude https://www.snopes.com/news/2015/11/22/donald-trump-cheering-911/ You're Berenstain Bearing yourself
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Jan 29, 2024 04:50
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it feels weird to see a defense of the sanctity of 9/11 on the forums that had some righteously funny photoshops on the topic like i'm tuned out of whatever back and forth is going on here, but i still think about this thread and laugh to this day: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3586028
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Jan 29, 2024 04:55
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12 years a lurker posted:Allahu Akbar is not a bad thing in all contexts but context matters and the combination of the location and the statement has an implication. congrats on becoming the latest iteration of the new and improved calm hitler. seriously though this is straight up bigotry and you should shut the gently caress up about this kind of poo poo
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Jan 29, 2024 05:01
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:it feels weird to see a defense of the sanctity of 9/11 on the forums that had some righteously funny photoshops on the topic Within the first quarter of the first page, barely had to scroll : BONE DOG posted:*Admiral Allah Ackbar
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Jan 29, 2024 05:02
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Literally did not happen my dude I'd agree it did not in America, to my knowledge and was referring to internationally where it did. I wasn't aware of Trump making that up about the NJ/NY muslim community; that's a terrible thing for him to do they were not at all supportive of 9/11 and got a huge amount of undeserved personal hate in the aftermath. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 29, 2024 05:06
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12 years a lurker posted:I'd agree it did not in America, to my knowledge and was referring to internationally where it did. I wasn't aware of Trump making that up about the NJ/NY muslim community; that's a terrible thing for him to do they were not at all supportive of 9/11 and got a huge amount of undeserved personal hate in the aftermath. It's hate you're perpetuating on this page for thinking that saying Allahu Akbar around ground zero is bad. It's a common phrase. Even Christians say the English version of it as well.
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Jan 29, 2024 05:23
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