Votskomit posted:

They funnel that data to Yanis Varoufakis. It is unclear what he does with the data but I hope it helps.

Jose posted:

you're not allowed to have your debt to gdp ratio be like this everyone said after 2008

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2024-01-27/chinas-debt-to-gdp-ratio-climbs-to-record-2878-in-2023-102161022.html

genericnick posted:

It just hit me that I have no idea what the Chinese KGB equivalent is. What's up with that? The West couldn't shut the gently caress up about the KGB when it was still around, yet the only Chinese organization that exists in the western imagination is the Communist Party.

Spergin Morlock posted:

MSS

AnimeIsTrash posted:

lol thats so lame, india has this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research_and_Analysis_Wing

slave to my cravings posted:

hello baby mama, do you have any state secrets for me

webcams for christ posted:

what else does MSS notably stand for? nothing in the Wikipedia disambiguation is jumping out

double nine posted:

Ministry of State Security

Taffer posted:

Can anyone write some words about the Judge-ordered liquidation of Evergrande and what effects it might have? I'm particularly curious how it got in such a mess in the first place.

I wish I had better sources for this stuff but all western reporting on China is psychotic, never quite sure where to look

Taffer posted:

Can anyone write some words about the Judge-ordered liquidation of Evergrande and what effects it might have? I'm particularly curious how it got in such a mess in the first place.

I wish I had better sources for this stuff but all western reporting on China is psychotic, never quite sure where to look

thechosenone posted:

They could also possibly end up buying the real estate they have on fire sale as part of beginning their public housing plan? Idunno seems like one way to make use of this.

JAY ZERO SUM GAME posted:

hasn't this been a going theory of state sanctioned markets under socialism? let there be booms and busts, but instead of letting capital buy up assets during a bust and consolidate power, the state buys up those developed assets on the cheap. makes sense to my idiot mind

Jel Shaker posted:

Chinese developer Evergrande ordered to be wound up by Hong Kong court

it’s a relatively short article

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Can't get past the pay wall.

quote:

Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

A Hong Kong court has ordered China Evergrande to be wound up, opening a new and unpredictable phase in the collapse of the world’s most indebted property developer.

The liquidation order comes just over two years after the company’s official default, which triggered a cash crunch for Chinese developers that is still hobbling the world’s second-largest economy.

High Court Judge Linda Chan issued the order on Monday after the developer failed to come up with a restructuring plan to satisfy international creditors despite lengthy negotiations.

“It would be a situation where the court says enough is enough,” Chan said. “I consider that it is appropriate for the court to make a winding-up order against the company, and I so order.”

The decision is set to test the reach of Hong Kong courts in the Chinese mainland, where foreign claims are widely seen to hold little sway and the property slowdown has become one of Beijing’s biggest political challenges.

While Evergrande is listed in Hong Kong, almost all of its assets and the vast majority of its more than $300bn in liabilities are in China. Authorities have so far prioritised the completion of unfinished projects by developers.

The judge appointed Edward Middleton and Tiffany Wong, from the restructuring firm Alvarez & Marsal, as Evergrande’s liquidators. Speaking outside the court, Wong said they would begin by meeting management to understand the affairs of the company and discuss next steps.

In her judgment, Chan said she had decided to order the winding up because Evergrande had “no restructuring proposal, let alone a viable proposal which has the support of the requisite majorities of the creditors”.

Her decision could trigger further lawsuits stemming from the billions of dollars of losses related to the company’s collapse.

Trading in the Hong Kong-listed shares of Evergrande and two of its subsidiaries was halted after the ruling.

Speaking after the hearing Fergus Saurin, a partner at law firm Kirkland and Ellis, which represents a key group of Evergrande creditors, said: “We are not surprised by the outcome. It’s a product of the company failing to engage with [us].

“There has been a history of last-minute engagement which has gone nowhere. And in the circumstances, the company only has itself to blame for being wound up.”

In theory, the ruling could pave the way for liquidators to attempt to seize control of some Evergrande assets in mainland China, since Hong Kong has a mutual recognition agreement on insolvency and restructuring that applies in some parts of China.

However, it is not clear how far mainland courts will accept the Hong Kong winding-up order. Asked about the issue, Saurin declined to comment.

Shortly after the court order, Chinese media reported that Evergrande’s chief executive Shawn Siu responded that the company would “do everything possible” to ensure the continued delivery of property development projects in China, adding that the operational structure of its onshore and offshore subsidiaries was “unaffected” as the court order was based in Hong Kong.

Siu was also cited saying the court decision was “regrettable”.

Evergrande did not immediately respond to a request for comment from the Financial Times.

Brock Silvers, chief investment officer of Hong Kong private equity group Kaiyuan Capital, said: “Offshore creditors may lack good alternatives, but a wind-up order from the Hong Kong court today would be the beginning of a multiyear, very costly process ultimately unlikely to yield significant recoveries.”

Before the trading halt and following the order, shares in Evergrande fell more than 20 per cent to HK$0.16, while outstanding dollar bonds issued by the developer traded at deeply distressed levels, with one bond maturing in 2025 trading at less than two cents on the dollar.

A previous deal between Evergrande and international investors fell apart in September after Chinese authorities failed to grant some regulatory approvals. Evergrande’s chair Hui Ka Yan was placed under “mandatory measures” days later on suspicion of “illegal crimes”, authorities said at the time.

The winding-up lawsuit was filed in 2022 by offshore creditor Top Shine Global, which said Evergrande had failed to honour HK$863mn (US$110mn) worth of claims.

The decision could have implications for other developers still locked in protracted restructuring negotiations with offshore creditors. Jiayuan, another Chinese developer, received a winding-up order from the same judge last year.
Timeline of Evergrande’s demise
Hui Ka Yan, the billionaire chair behind the indebted Chinese property group, is under ‘mandatory measures’ © Bobby Yip/Reuters
SepteMber 2021

Evergrande first misses payments on its international debt. The company has liabilities of more than $300bn.
December 2021

Fitch Ratings declares Evergrande to be in default.
March 2022

Evergrande suspends trading of shares after failing to publish audited results.
June 2022

Offshore creditor Top Shine Global files winding-up lawsuit against Evergrande.
January 2023

PwC resigns as Evergrande’s auditor over different views on its financial statements.
March 2023

Evergrande unveils its restructuring plan including allowing creditors to swap debt into new notes.
September 2023

Evergrande says its chair Hui Ka Yan has been put under “mandatory measures” on suspicion of unspecified crimes.
October 2023

Hong Kong’s court says Evergrande will be given “one last opportunity” to formulate a revised restructuring plan after an agreement could not be reached.
January 2024

Hong Kong’s court orders Evergrande to wind up.

AnimeIsTrash posted:

Bald Stalin posted:

Precedential history is going to be a crude fit at best, as far as I can tell. Anything in the following paragraphs is a puffed up way of describing "who really knows, but probably something like china's go at a Lost Decade."

1. for starters, $300 billion purely in liabilities for a property development operation that goes officially defunct is a bit of a meteor crater. Evergrande was the world's most indebted property developer, and now it's completely poo poo the bed. So, definitively a property crisis. And because of property development's perilously 'encouraged' role in china's growth, you're now talking about a prosperity crisis. So the scale alone relative to china's markets makes it hard to determine what something like this looks like months or years down the road. You would have an easier time figuring outcomes for scenarios like "toyota goes defunct with its current liabilities."

2. china's government has been carrying along quite fast in the "if the only tool you have is a hammer" saga of markets in countries with strongly authoritarian rulership, the kind that habituates more and more forceful attempts at controlling market prices through behind-the-scenes decree, and snowballing efforts to prop up stocks or preserve face. In ways which delay crashes. By turning them into more serious crashes later. Will they start stronghanding some overt restrictions on stock sales? Will they informally halt shorting? Officially halt shorting? Will they order tremendous quantities of their own sovereign funds to buy in and prop up financials to stave off investor abandonment? There are so many different ways that china's government can prove ultimately incompetent to the task of not making this situation worse (based off recent history), and there's immense transparency issues in what efforts or decrees will even be pursued in the first place, so there's too much of a potential future variety in the ways this can even go.

3. this whole crisis is a can that got kicked down the road for a long while already, so uglier or more generational financial malaise may have already been hardened into unavoidability by now, and you have to wait and see if thorough and meaningful policy reversals are on the table.

There's at least a few things which you can easily guess on, because by now they're the lowest hanging fruit on the guessing tree: first, there will be lots of rapidly cycled in new restrictions on acceptable online commentary about markets or the financial health of the country. Second, plenty of higher ups in evergrande finding themselves detained and paraded out to the news as egregious crime doing criminals who did criminal crime to the markets, and must be made an example of.

Everything else boils down to the question of what china is willing or capable of doing to satisfy investors and keep faith in the validity of their markets, and what china is willing or capable of doing on top of that to limit how many of their own citizens are going to see their life savings effectively go up in smoke.

Benagain posted:

The horrible tyranny of a government that hangs people who did real estate crimes oh God can you even imagine

JAY ZERO SUM GAME posted:

hasn't this been a going theory of state sanctioned markets under socialism? let there be booms and busts, but instead of letting capital buy up assets during a bust and consolidate power, the state buys up those developed assets on the cheap. makes sense to my idiot mind

Fat-Lip-Sum-41.mp3 posted:

Has any of the banks that lend to the developers failed, yet? That's when we find out what China is prepared to do regarding the debt.

crepeface posted:

what's the deal with these guys and hugging

what's the india/french relationship like? is macron chasing indian coal to replace west africa uranium or something?