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Inferior Third Season posted:People also underestimate low probability events. Those are also all average American calculations. I would assume that Biden and Trump are going to beat the average American. That means that the 4.9% is the absolute high point of probability and it is closer to 2-3% (and even lower than that if we are still talking about Haley and the nomination which would be about 5 months away instead of the inauguration that is 12 months away). 2-3% isn't impossible, but people are way overestimating the likelihood of the "Trump dies before the primaries are finished" event.
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Jan 24, 2024 16:58
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Inferior Third Season posted:People also underestimate low probability events. I don;t know I look at this thing it always makes me depressed.
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Jan 24, 2024 17:07
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Those are also all average American calculations. I would assume that Biden and Trump are going to beat the average American. I could believe a modest life expectancy bump for them compared to average based on their wealth and background, but cutting the probability of death by more than a factor of two would need some strong evidence that you haven't provided.
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Jan 24, 2024 17:14
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Also at the individual level, genetics is a huge factor in life expectancy and Trump's parents both lived a long-rear end time.
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Jan 24, 2024 17:22
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Leon Sumbitches posted:On the flip side, there are tons of Trumpists who will absolutely stay home on election day if their big wet boy isn't on the ballot. I don't know which group is bigger. I'm not sure it matters which group is bigger because they are throwing the election away to Biden. Since Trump is not immortal (that we know of) the more often he is a major party candidate, the more unpalatable the GOP becomes to the electorate outside of the hard core MAGA fringe, and the longer it will take to rebuild from the wreckage. Most of the GOP leadership wanted to move on from Trump this year, but they don't pick their candidate, the idiots in their base do. They tried the electability argument (which Haley is still trying because its all she's got now), but the base keeps hearing the horseshit polls and believe Trump has a shot.
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Jan 25, 2024 00:32
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Leon Sumbitches posted:How long do people think she'll remain in the race? I think probably until after Super Tuesday, unless she loses by 35% or more in SC. Absent that the millionaires she's running on behalf of are fine with losing pennies keeping her in the race. I also think she refuses to endorse, because she doesn't believe Trump can beat Biden and she's positioning herself for '28.
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Jan 25, 2024 04:29
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Rigel posted:I'm not sure it matters which group is bigger because they are throwing the election away to Biden. Since Trump is not immortal (that we know of) the more often he is a major party candidate, the more unpalatable the GOP becomes to the electorate outside of the hard core MAGA fringe, and the longer it will take to rebuild from the wreckage. Is this actually the case, though? They've run him as a candidate twice now, the first time he outright won, the second time he still got pretty close. Yes, he got clobbered in absolute terms, but that doesn't matter due to the US's screwy electoral system. I want to believe that this time everything is finally going to catch up to him, and all signs do point to him being less electable at this point than other Republicans, but he still seems to have enough support to make the upcoming election close.
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Jan 25, 2024 12:11
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Phlegmish posted:I want to believe that this time everything is finally going to catch up to him, and all signs do point to him being less electable at this point than other Republicans, but he still seems to have enough support to make the upcoming election close. for the first time in my loving life since this whole bullshit began i have this persistent gut feeling that He's Lost The Juice why it never felt like that before to me i don't know but i can finally listen to him talk and think 'he aint got it in the tank anymore'
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Jan 26, 2024 03:50
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Inferior Third Season posted:People also underestimate low probability events. Biden has a lower life expectancy compared to his cohort due to multiple CVAs.
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Jan 26, 2024 14:08
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Sure but he's wealthy and has access to the best medical care in the country. Not scientific but I'm guessing those probably even out.
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Jan 26, 2024 17:56
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Inferior Third Season posted:I could believe a modest life expectancy bump for them compared to average based on their wealth and background, but cutting the probability of death by more than a factor of two would need some strong evidence that you haven't provided. The averages are for all 80 years. 60% of 80 year olds have some serious health problem or another. These are extreme outlier 80 year olds in how healthy they are. Yes, even Trump. Following the schedule these guys do for two weeks would probably burn our 40 year old asses right out. And the difference between "normal" medical care, like, even what a relatively wealthy person gets, and what a President or billionaire gets is quite a gulf. And they don't drink, and most people drink, and while we're talking about estimation everybody really, really underestimates how bad drinking is for you. Even Trump's life of pill popping probably doesn't compare to regularly drinking poison, on purpose. FT: Long-lived rivals: actuaries say Biden and Trump are not too old for office Financial Times posted:Any predictions are by their nature uncertain, yet a longevity modelling firm has forecasted that both candidates are likely to live well beyond the end of the next presidency in 2029. According to Club Vita, actuarial data suggests both men could have more than another decade ahead of them. Basically they're both being given a three year year boost to their life expectancy. Annoying that they only give Club Vita's average life expectancies for them and not the year-by-year probability of death. Obviously those figures do exist, although they might be proprietary to CV. Maybe they're available somewhere. I'm not sure if it works this way, but the piece says that Trump's being three years younger means his chance of death (in a vaccuum) is 30% lower, so maaaaybe we could extrapolate that to say that their chances of death are equivalent to those of a person three years younger than them?, and thus 30% lower than quoted(????) So, that is much less than a factor of 2 (but also probably not the right way to make that calculation.) That would be ~3% Trump death, ~5% Biden death, ~8% either. Obviously that's not the right way to do that calculation because things like death probability are heavily logarithmic. The correct figure would be somewhat lower. You know, we can throw around percentages all we like; at the end of the day, they will die, or they won't, and it's not terribly likely that they will, but much much much more likely than it would be for somebody even ten years younger. I'm surprised that people don't mention more often that John McCain, whose Vice President would have been Sarah Palin, died only seven months after his second term would have ended. (Although I seriously doubt Palin would have been able to last even one term before she got fired or impeached, that woman is a loving disaster.) Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 19:06 on Jan 27, 2024 |
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Jan 27, 2024 18:56
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whydirt posted:Yeah if Haley had gotten within single digits, it’s at least possible she could build some momentum, but losing by 12 in her best early state means she’s done unless Trump drops dead. If he drops dead she’ll want as many delegates as possible at the convention. It’s not impossible. I mean that White House medical unit drug list, I doubt that’s stopped.
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Jan 28, 2024 06:40
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Misunderstood posted:And they don't drink, and most people drink, and while we're talking about estimation everybody really, really underestimates how bad drinking is for you. Even Trump's life of pill popping probably doesn't compare to regularly drinking poison, on purpose. Actually, no, the numbers are just distorted by alcoholics pulling the average way up:  Something like half of Americans are either teatotalers or effectively abstinent (only have a glass of wine or champagne at a wedding/holiday dinner). While reducing your alcohol consumption can only be beneficial for your health and longevity (those "glass of red wine a day" studies have been debunked), I think you are overstating the risks of alcohol consumption. IIRC think chances of getting certain kinds of cancer might rise like 1-3 percentage points or something?
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Jan 28, 2024 23:19
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An average of 10 drinks / day??? what the gently caress
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Jan 28, 2024 23:31
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:An average of 10 drinks / day??? Life sucks. Some people have ten drinks a day, some masturbate ten times a day. Whatever keeps you going.
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Jan 28, 2024 23:34
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:An average of 10 drinks / day??? Alcoholism is a story of "they were drinking HOW much?" Like a lot of people don't really get it before they witness it up close
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Jan 28, 2024 23:36
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Ethics_Gradient posted:Actually, no, the numbers are just distorted by alcoholics pulling the average way up: Here's the NCI factsheet. For some rarer types of cancer it's about a 30% increase from even light drinking. Here's more information about another set of debunked research (an effort by alcoholic beverage companies to subvert the scientific process) that promoted drinking. If you see claims about benefits of "moderate" alcohol consumption, they're likely coming from this discredited research. Infuriatingly, a lot of the coverage generated from that garbage is still floating around, even from groups like the AHA.
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Jan 28, 2024 23:58
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:An average of 10 drinks / day??? It really puts those commercials in perspective where a beer company will say, "Please drink in moderation." The beer company totally knows that half of their product is bought by the top 10% of the population and if people actually drank responsibly, their revenue would drop by more than 50%.
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Jan 29, 2024 00:08
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Staluigi posted:Alcoholism is a story of "they were drinking HOW much?" Like a lot of people don't really get it before they witness it up close I grew up in a Wisconsin family, where both sides have alcohol as a chosen vice, and we were all shocked at the sheer amount of booze my alcoholic aunt was going through once her problem got too bad to hide any longer. Like, even with our standards, it was hosed up. Thankfully she's sober now, because yeesh, it was not something that would have lasted long.
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Jan 29, 2024 00:30
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:An average of 10 drinks / day??? When working at a liquor store you will see the same people every day (sometimes more than once a day). I'm sure bartenders have similar experiences. I wonder if Dean Phillips serves his own brand of liquor at events.
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Jan 29, 2024 00:38
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Ethics_Gradient posted:Actually, no, the numbers are just distorted by alcoholics pulling the average way up: They really needed to have the little dude on the right passed out on the ground at that point.
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Jan 29, 2024 01:21
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C. Everett Koop posted:They really needed to have the little dude on the right passed out on the ground at that point. That's a top percentile alcoholic. If it wasn't for the overwhelming smell of raw alcohol wafting off them you might only think they're a little drunk.
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Jan 29, 2024 01:26
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q_k posted:When working at a liquor store you will see the same people every day (sometimes more than once a day). I'm sure bartenders have similar experiences. I wonder if Dean Phillips serves his own brand of liquor at events. The most depressing ones were the old dudes who would come in and order hard liquor two cases at a time: one case of half-gallons, and one case of half-pints. One for home, and one for work/the road.
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Jan 29, 2024 02:21
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It’s a good thing that chart is by 10%iles because I don’t want to know what that top 10% looks like if it were broken down into 10 to 5 and 5 to 1.
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Jan 29, 2024 18:28
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When I was at my worst I could down a handle of vodka in like 1.5 days. And I’m 5’6 140lbs. If you’re not a booze fiend you really can’t imagine it.
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Jan 30, 2024 00:17
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I just never liked the taste of alcohol - no matter how much I tried in college. On the flip side, my dad doesn’t leave the house without a few cans of natty light.
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Jan 30, 2024 00:47
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Ethics_Gradient posted:Actually, no, the numbers are just distorted by alcoholics pulling the average way up: Man, I feel like I've put in an epic amount of work to go from 9th to 8th decile.
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Jan 30, 2024 02:05
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I also went from 9th to 8th from my 20s to my 30s. Shame alcohol's bad for you otherwise I'd be down to have it more. Love the taste and love that it does a very controllable sort of buzz. I don't have to worry about having a half hit too much and having a nightmare trip or having just a bad headspace for it on some days. It will always be the same and there's something to be said for that.
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Jan 30, 2024 06:00
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Crunch Buttsteak posted:I grew up in a Wisconsin family, where both sides have alcohol as a chosen vice, and we were all shocked at the sheer amount of booze my alcoholic aunt was going through once her problem got too bad to hide any longer. Like, even with our standards, it was hosed up. Thankfully she's sober now, because yeesh, it was not something that would have lasted long. My dad was the same way. You see him drink a beer or two and don't think anything of it. Because you don't know he had four at the bar before he came home, and some whiskey, and... I have no doubt he would be dead now if not for my mom forcing him into rehab and his taking very, very well to AA. My grandma on my mom's side got caught a lot with her drinking, and they take all her liquor. She started cooking vinyl records to get high and predictably died of the sort of cancer one gets from inhaling melted plastic. Addiction is brutal.
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Jan 31, 2024 00:13
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Caros posted:My grandma on my mom's side got caught a lot with her drinking, and they take all her liquor. She started cooking vinyl records to get high and predictably died of the sort of cancer one gets from inhaling melted plastic. jesus fuckin christ like i know addiction creates some hosed up imagery but i'll never get over poo poo like this and coming across the aftermath of people inhaling duster
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Jan 31, 2024 00:20
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I think I finally understood addiction when I got fentanyl for a surgery. It was such an awful feeling, apart from the fact that it killed pain very effectively (which is good because they'd been fiddling around in my ballsack and abdomen), that it made me think "if anyone seeks this, rather than not-this, they must have poo poo going on that I can't possibly understand." Myself, I like being able to walk to the bogs and relieve myself without wondering if I'll fall down, and if you like whatever feeling you get from a substance like even more than you enjoy being able to walk and take a piss with utmost confidence, there's something going on beyond a vague moral failure and I have no context to begin to judge.
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Jan 31, 2024 05:34
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To briefly convey a controversial and very broad and complex set of areas of research, the thing that makes addiction what it is, and the thing that makes it so terrible, isn't the direct sensation or the tolerance or withdrawal- it's the alteration of the mind, all the different parts of the cognitive landscape, of the addict to justify and rationalize further access and consumption, to the point of harm. The miraculous reconciling, sense-making machine between one's ears gets all its resources redirected as if the substance (or, under some arguments, the behavior or reward) is at least as important as any other necessity.
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Jan 31, 2024 05:50
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I had a lot of different substances forced on me as a child and every now and then addiction cravings randomly surface and gently caress up my life for a few days. I don't know any of what I had and I don't ever want to find out because I'm terrified that I'll try to track some down in a moment of weakness. Addiction is scary as hell and I don't wish it on anyone.
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Jan 31, 2024 05:52
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Discendo Vox posted:To briefly convey a controversial and very broad and complex set of areas of research, the thing that makes addiction what it is, and the thing that makes it so terrible, isn't the direct sensation or the tolerance or withdrawal- it's the alteration of the mind, all the different parts of the cognitive landscape, of the addict to justify and rationalize further access and consumption, to the point of harm. The miraculous reconciling, sense-making machine between one's ears gets all its resources redirected as if the substance (or, under some arguments, the behavior or reward) is at least as important as any other necessity. Indeed. I'd also say, it's an eye-opening experience to see someone who abuses alcohol, versus an alcoholic. You're concerned about the former; the latter will fall off a loving chair, split their lip on the table, go to vomit, and come back to crack another beer whilst still bleeding. That's not to say alcohol abuse is good, just that it's qualitatively different from addiction.
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Jan 31, 2024 06:10
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As an alcoholic, that's just the good old puke and rally.
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Jan 31, 2024 07:19
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Kith posted:I had a lot of different substances forced on me as a child and every now and then addiction cravings randomly surface and gently caress up my life for a few days. I don't know any of what I had and I don't ever want to find out because I'm terrified that I'll try to track some down in a moment of weakness. Addiction is scary as hell and I don't wish it on anyone. To bring it back to 2024, I’m not gonna say I won’t crack an ice cold Coke Zero and toast when poisons of choice catch up to dudes like Trump and Giuliani. I know Donald’s a teetotaler but he’s sure as poo poo on some drug cocktail that’s not what a doctor would prescribe a normal fat grandpa
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Jan 31, 2024 13:01
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:I know Donald’s a teetotaler but he’s sure as poo poo on some drug cocktail that’s not what a doctor would prescribe a normal fat grandpa He’s on the normal DC regimen of adderall (or something similar) and ambien. Would explain his wild ups and downs, delirious late night tweeting, chronic congestion etc PT6A posted:Indeed. I'd also say, it's an eye-opening experience to see someone who abuses alcohol, versus an alcoholic. You're concerned about the former; the latter will fall off a loving chair, split their lip on the table, go to vomit, and come back to crack another beer whilst still bleeding. That's not to say alcohol abuse is good, just that it's qualitatively different from addiction. There’s no qualitative difference between someone who “abuses” alcohol (binge drinking disorder I guess?) and someone with alcohol use disorder. We don’t use the term “alcoholic” anymore, just like we don’t use the term “consumptive.” It’s dehumanizing and linguistically and passively gives someone an excuse to not care about them. The diagnostic criteria between AUD or binge drinking disorder aren’t really meaningful clinically. Alcohol doesn’t have the immediate destructive effects of IV drug use, but when I lecture on this I always end with alcohol because it’s the worst substance addiction of all of them.
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Jan 31, 2024 13:33
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PT6A posted:I think I finally understood addiction when I got fentanyl for a surgery. It was such an awful feeling, apart from the fact that it killed pain very effectively (which is good because they'd been fiddling around in my ballsack and abdomen), that it made me think "if anyone seeks this, rather than not-this, they must have poo poo going on that I can't possibly understand." I had the opposite experience with fentanyl for surgery. Going under felt so good, physically and even emotionally, that I absolutely saw the appeal. (My next thought was that I’d better stay away from anything like that or risk wrecking my life.)
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Jan 31, 2024 13:35
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poo poo how many of us lost a few years to mmo's much less actual addictions
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Jan 31, 2024 15:54
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:poo poo how many of us lost a few years to mmo's much less actual addictions World of Warcraft is the most effective form of birth control and almost certainly responsible for the massive decline in teen pregnancies starting in the early 2000's. According to the DSM, an addiction has to actually have a negative impact on your life to be considered an addiction. Technically, World of Warcraft is a medical contraceptive device.
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Jan 31, 2024 15:58
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