(Thread IKs:
weg, Toxic Mental)
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Seth Pecksniff posted:lol if you listen to polls in January of an election year not saying the poll is right but at what point can we not dismiss polls immediately?
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Jan 31, 2024 17:02
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| # ? May 28, 2024 09:14 |
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To share with the chuds you haven't cut out of your life yet.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:02
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Droogie posted:If we secede do we still get our hog benefits? Hunter's hog belongs to the entire world.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:03
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Accipiter posted:That was before she lost the Carroll case because, like her client, she's a big loser. Now that she lost (because she's a big loser), she's been fired and it's a safe bet he won't pay her anything else. Even the ways he claims the world and the judge are being unfair to him don’t have the sparkle they used to, it’s all so shallow and basic and obviously a lie Anyone know where I can see the clip of MTG saying indictable in the way that word is DEFINITELY pronounced?
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Jan 31, 2024 17:03
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kazil posted:not saying the poll is right but at what point can we not dismiss polls immediately? When preliminary polls turn into exit polls.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:03
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Yeah Trump over performed quite a bit in 2020 vs polls and 2020 had Biden with a blowout basically all year. Biden is consistently down now and I wouldn’t be so fast to just hand waive the polls away.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:04
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If nothing else it's weird that teungo getting schlonged in court resulted in a huge uptick in his support, even operating under the assumption that polls disproportionately favor Republicans (old people who answer unsolicited calls on their landlines. e: oh god the doom spiral looms. pull up, pull up
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Jan 31, 2024 17:04
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Chuds must be really uncomfortable with how many times they feel the urge to declare "Kanye West was right" these days.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:04
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Lube Enthusiast posted:The fat npc in every starting town who does the “technology is amazing!” speech, but it’s trump so he bumbles & rants through it https://i.imgur.com/D2BofFo.mp4
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Jan 31, 2024 17:05
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I’ll take a Hog if they’re still going out, just woke up and still catching up
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Jan 31, 2024 17:06
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You're instantly and permanently my favorite poster
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Jan 31, 2024 17:06
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kazil posted:not saying the poll is right but at what point can we not dismiss polls immediately? There was a report that essentially showed a large portion of the electorate is in denial about trump being the nominee and how that is affecting a lot of polling. So maybe we wait for trump to be the official nominee
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Jan 31, 2024 17:07
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I’ll disregard any poll showing Trump up over Biden in MI and PA, because that is bullshit.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:07
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Jan 31, 2024 17:07
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I'll start sweating in Oct and polls still show Trump in the lead after being convicted. Also Biden has a really good election and re election team. I think that shouldn't be discounted
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Jan 31, 2024 17:07
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kazil posted:not saying the poll is right but at what point can we not dismiss polls immediately? I think once the primaries are over is probably a practical time to start treating the polls as "real". Not in the sense that they will suddenly become immune to all of the problems that plague polling, but at least at that point when a responder is asked "Biden or Trump?" they aren't hearing "Biden or <some Republican we don't know yet it's probably not going to be Trump so put whoever you want here instead of Trump>?". The ambiguity in the primary is helping Trump hide his disapproval among independent/swing voters right now, so it isn't a terrible hypothesis that his numbers look better now than they will after every other GOP option is extinguished. I believe there were Biden/Trump match-up polls that dropped precipitously for Trump after DeSantis dropped out, which (if that's the case) would support the hypothesis.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:10
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kazil posted:not saying the poll is right but at what point can we not dismiss polls immediately? After trump actually becomes the nominee
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Jan 31, 2024 17:10
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Tay Tay why say F word? Be good girl and make babies before out of eggs
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Jan 31, 2024 17:10
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Serious_Cyclone posted:There are, very likely, some very difficult challenges in polling this early in the election with an electorate that is this partisan, even intra-partisan within a party. And every election since 2020 has shown weakness in the GOP's position rather than strength. But I get more than a little motivated-reasoning-vibe from the immediate dismissal of polls when they look good for Trump, particularly when I don't see the same being applied to polls that look good for Biden. There are a lot of bullshit pollsters that sprung up in 2022. GOP Operatives smartly realized that most people were looking to aggregator sites like 538 and RealClearPolitics so they started spewing out shoddy polls that they could use to build a narrative off of. It's one of the many reasons that the ~red wave~ of the midterms turned out to be a wet fart. Doing it legit and non-maliciously is also hard and only getting harder as others have pointed out. You end up in positions where you have to weight low response groups super heavily and have nothing to really base if off of, which is how you get stuff like 30% of zoomers like your favorite president (TRUMP!!!). If it cut both ways right now I'd say so but its a lot of practical and partisan challenges all tipping it one direction. As for how off they are, we won't know until after elections happen and the only way to calibrate them is to look at how off the last cycle was.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:11
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Nothing says "border security" like "war with Mexico"!
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Jan 31, 2024 17:12
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ragnarokette posted:There are a lot of bullshit pollsters that sprung up in 2022. GOP Operatives smartly realized that most people were looking to aggregator sites like 538 and RealClearPolitics so they started spewing out shoddy polls that they could use to build a narrative off of. It's one of the many reasons that the ~red wave~ of the midterms turned out to be a wet fart. I clicked through to the X (the everything app!) post that was posted here and it says the state polls were done by Morning Consult, which I believe is a legitimate polling firm.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:13
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Is she aware that Jordan doesn't share a border with Mexico?
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Jan 31, 2024 17:14
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The polls are also heavily juiced to make it look like a close election because the media has to run with a “down to the wire” narrative to keep viewers/readers engaged and to keep the campaigns buying advertising. It’s a grift.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:14
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Pope Corky the IX posted:Is she aware that Jordan doesn't share a border with Mexico? Nancy Mace is an idiot but that's not at all what she's suggesting there
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Jan 31, 2024 17:15
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don’t get so worked up by someone blasting the lol thread with a poll and no comment whatsoever. can you imagine your parents telling you to stop dating taylor swift because she said “let’s loving go?” what kind of bitch baby cares about their parents’ opinion on their relationship at this age?
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Jan 31, 2024 17:16
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Faustian Bargain posted:don’t get so worked up by someone blasting the lol thread with a poll and no comment whatsoever. Could you please watch your language, please? This is a family forum!
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Jan 31, 2024 17:17
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kazil posted:Nancy Mace is an idiot but that's not at all what she's suggesting there Please explain.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:17
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ragnarokette posted:There are a lot of bullshit pollsters that sprung up in 2022. GOP Operatives smartly realized that most people were looking to aggregator sites like 538 and RealClearPolitics so they started spewing out shoddy polls that they could use to build a narrative off of. It's one of the many reasons that the ~red wave~ of the midterms turned out to be a wet fart. Thank you, I was looking for the words for this; Trump's sham is particularly dependent on this and the appearances of success afforded by our two-party system's "all or nothing" gambit. He also has a uhhhh curious amount of (paid) posting labor that comes from "cheap, affordable" places like Kenya, SE Asia, and Eastern Europe. You will often times see pro-Trump comments sections flooded in majority by not only fake accounts farms, but also people who do not live in the United States. This is because they are paid mechanical-turk sums to zerg rush them.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:17
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Pope Corky the IX posted:Please explain. She is suggesting removing troops from Jordan and stationing them at the southern US border
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Jan 31, 2024 17:17
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I actually believe Nancy Mace doesn't know that Jordan doesn't share a border with Mexico
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Jan 31, 2024 17:18
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Escape From Noise posted:Could you please watch your language, please? This is a family forum! In that the average user would be a middle-aged dad by now if they ever got laid ever? Yeah
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Jan 31, 2024 17:18
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Pope Corky the IX posted:There's enough hog for everyone. Is there ever really enough hog?
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Jan 31, 2024 17:19
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Pinche Rudo posted:The polls are also heavily juiced to make it look like a close election because the media has to run with a “down to the wire” narrative to keep viewers/readers engaged and to keep the campaigns buying advertising. It’s a grift. I remember this being the mantra for McCain supporters in 2008, for Romney supporters in 2012, and for Hillary supporters in 2016. There are a thousand takes dismissing polling that appear when the polls look bad for our candidate, that evaporate when polls look good for our candidate.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:20
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Serious_Cyclone posted:I clicked through to the X (the everything app!) post that was posted here and it says the state polls were done by Morning Consult, which I believe is a legitimate polling firm. Morning Consult is legit* but still subject to a lot of the structural response and weighting problems. I haven't bothered to check in this cycle in detail but even previously great pollsters have been stumbling to one degree or another. e: to expand on this a little, the oldest Zoomers are in their early to mid 20s. This is going to be the first or second presidential cycle for the cohort so there's not really a sound history to calibrate from. You have to do a lot of guesswork and previous conventional wisdom about turnout and partisanship is changing. ragnarokette fucked around with this message at 17:24 on Jan 31, 2024 |
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Jan 31, 2024 17:20
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Random Stranger posted:Hunter's hog belongs to the entire world. Not if Large Marge has her way, she wants it all to herself.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:21
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Jordan's southern border, with the Saudis. But I think they should be moved to the northern border with Syria.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:22
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bird with big dick posted:Tay Tay why say F word? Be good girl and make babies before out of eggs Her eggs! Her depleted eggs!
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Jan 31, 2024 17:22
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ragnarokette posted:Morning Consult is legit* Yeah, I don't disagree that polling in-general has these problems and they seem to have grown over time as the electorate has become more partisan.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:22
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kazil posted:not saying the poll is right but at what point can we not dismiss polls immediately? August but mostly after Labor Day when people start paying attention to the presidential race
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Jan 31, 2024 17:23
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I’d be delighted to take a hog
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Jan 31, 2024 17:23
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