Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
  • Post
  • Reply
BrigadierSensible
Feb 16, 2012

I've got a pocket full of cheese🧀, and a garden full of trees🌴.

nine-gear crow posted:

Be gay, don't do treason

But naked gay sex is fun. It's fun for the two blokes involved, it's fun for those of us that get to watch, it is a fun concept. It is bringing joy into the world.

Storming a government building with the expressed intention to overturn the results of a democratic election. Less fun.

edit: Also less saucy.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog


Beefed Owl posted:

I'm trying to come up with a scenario in my head where Trump has any shot in hell of winning and I just can't do it.

Even if it's a lower turnout election that will probably hurt Trump more. He has done nothing to gain undecided voters he has no policies or plans and quite frankly I think people are just kind of tired of him as weird as it is to say Biden being boring as poo poo is probably working to his benefit as people remember having to wake up each day with Trump as president stressing over if this was the day he was going to start world war 3.

This divide in the Republican party is killing them. I'm going to say that if Trump is found guilty of anything whether or not he sees prison he will have no chance of winning the election. Even being a convicted felon may not turn a lot of Republican voters but it will turn some and it will probably be enough with how razor thin the margins are for him.

Biden has a strong economy and no major scandals and his incumbency working for him and I think that's enough for him to be either Haley or Trump. Basically what I'm saying is it's far too early to say anything but I just don't feel like there is any path for Trump to succeed here.

The closest I can think of is Biden dying in October or some massive economic downturn but that's about it. poo poo even the economic downturn may not matter because we had one in 2022 and look how that turned out in the midterms.

I think this thread overestimates the chances of Trump being found guilty of anything criminal before the election. Trump’s team has basically succeeded in delaying one of three trials to after the election and they’re working hard on the other two. If one goes off in time take the jury and add a stealth chud or some bozo who thinks the election should decide things and now you’ve got trump being “proven innocent”. I think a guilty verdict sinks him but being found not guilty boosts him and punting the trials is a wash.

Couple that with the inflation that people rightly or wrongly pin on Biden - it’s stopped going up but people unrealistically expected it to go down which is never going to happen.

Add in the current slate of polls: sure there may be inaccuracies and movement but that can go either way and 2022 too was pretty accurate (R+2/3).

I’m not a doomer here but I think it’s fair to say it’s a coin flip that’s Biden’s to lose.

Baxter
Sep 13, 2000

BrigadierSensible posted:

But naked gay sex is fun. It's fun for the two blokes involved, it's fun for those of us that get to watch, it is a fun concept. It is bringing joy into the world.

Storming a government building with the expressed intention to overturn the results of a democratic election. Less fun.

edit: Also less saucy.

To be fair, I'm enjoying watching the guys who stormed the capitol get hosed as well

Agents are GO!
Dec 29, 2004

Grammarchist posted:

worrying yourself to worthlessness doesn't help.

Now you tell me.

Honestly, part of the problem we're having in this thread is that so much of this poo poo is absolutely unprecedented, even that that word has really taken a beating since 2016, it's still the best word for this.

What happens when a candidate has 91 felony IN-DICK-MINTS and counting?

What happens when several state parties are broke?

What happens when a national party is broke,

What happens when an ex president runs for president again?

Rescue Toaster
Mar 13, 2003

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

I think this thread overestimates the chances of Trump being found guilty of anything criminal before the election. Trump’s team has basically succeeded in delaying one of three trials to after the election and they’re working hard on the other two. If one goes off in time take the jury and add a stealth chud or some bozo who thinks the election should decide things and now you’ve got trump being “proven innocent”. I think a guilty verdict sinks him but being found not guilty boosts him and punting the trials is a wash.

I don't think it's very likely that Trump is found not guilty by a jury, but it's absolutely quite possible if not quite likely that you get a hung jury. Only the NY criminal trial (for paying off Stormy) and the DC Jan 6 trial have any chance at all of completing before Nov. Even if SCOTUS ultimately rules he doesn't have immunity there's no telling how long they'll deliberately stall.

The documents case in Florida is as good as dead, Trump's attorneys are just ignoring deadlines and the judge is doing nothing. The GA case wouldn't even start until after the election, even assuming nothing happens with the weird accusations there.

Hollismason
Jun 30, 2007
An alright dude.

Agents are GO! posted:

Now you tell me.

Honestly, part of the problem we're having in this thread is that so much of this poo poo is absolutely unprecedented, even that that word has really taken a beating since 2016, it's still the best word for this.

What happens when a candidate has 91 felony IN-DICK-MINTS and counting?

What happens when several state parties are broke?

What happens when a national party is broke,

What happens when an ex president runs for president again?

What national party is broke?

A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog


Rescue Toaster posted:

I don't think it's very likely that Trump is found not guilty by a jury, but it's absolutely quite possible if not quite likely that you get a hung jury. Only the NY criminal trial (for paying off Stormy) and the DC Jan 6 trial have any chance at all of completing before Nov. Even if SCOTUS ultimately rules he doesn't have immunity there's no telling how long they'll deliberately stall.

The documents case in Florida is as good as dead, Trump's attorneys are just ignoring deadlines and the judge is doing nothing. The GA case wouldn't even start until after the election, even assuming nothing happens with the weird accusations there.

A hung jury before the election is basically a not guilty verdict for Trump in the public’s eye.

bird with big dick
Oct 21, 2015

I’m having sex in the capitol building right now AMA

A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog


bird with big dick posted:

I’m having sex in the capitol building right now AMA

Big for a bird or big in general?

Rescue Toaster
Mar 13, 2003

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

A hung jury before the election is basically a not guilty verdict for Trump in the public’s eye.

Fair enough. Yeah by far the most likely outcome is that no trial actually completes before the election, or if one does, it ends in a mistrial due to a hung jury.

I honestly think the 13th amendment stuff might have a higher chance of somehow sticking than a trial before Nov.

020124_2
Feb 2, 2024

bird with big dick posted:

I’m having sex in the capitol building right now AMA

All Thanks to the Apple Photon™

Silly Burrito
Nov 27, 2007

SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

bird with big dick posted:

I’m having sex in the capitol building right now AMA

Which elected official are you picturing?

Grammarchist
Jan 28, 2013

Tip O'Neil has already lit one man's loins afire.

Hollismason
Jun 30, 2007
An alright dude.
I think the Georgia and DC trial have the best chances of convicting him. I don't think its going to be a hung jury. I think he's either going to be found not guilty or guilty.

A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog


Hollismason posted:

I think the Georgia and DC trial have the best chances of convicting him. I don't think its going to be a hung jury. I think he's either going to be found not guilty or guilty.

I think a hung jury is a lot more likely than in a normal trial. I don’t think anyone in this thread would sign off on a not guilty verdict - just add a chud and now a hung jury is your only option.

Hollismason
Jun 30, 2007
An alright dude.

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

I think a hung jury is a lot more likely than in a normal trial. I don’t think anyone in this thread would sign off on a not guilty verdict - just add a chud and now a hung jury is your only option.

Thats why I think DC has the best bet at convicting him just because of the Jury Pool. DC is overwhelmingly democratic.

kazil
Jul 24, 2005

Derpmph trial star reporter!

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1753225474602369495

SlurredSpeech609
Oct 29, 2012

Hollismason posted:

Thats why I think DC has the best bet at convicting him just because of the Jury Pool. DC is overwhelmingly democratic.

Hopefully the courts get moving because that trial has been delayed by his immunity appeal for two months already.

quote:

The first stop in the appeal process is before a three-judge panel of the DC Circuit Court of Appeals. Arguments before that panel took place on January 9, but they have not yet issued their ruling. If they side against Trump, as expected, he could ask the full DC Circuit Court to hear the case — and then, inevitably, the Supreme Court.

In December, Smith tried to move this process along by asking the Supreme Court to consider the immunity question right away — but the justices declined to do so.
https://www.vox.com/politics/24055503/trump-trials-fani-willis-jack-smith-alvin-bragg

Late Fees
Jan 8, 2004
Your fees are valid.


so it's legal for you to sit in your own living room but if I break into your house and take a poo poo on your couch suddenly it's "breaking and entering"?? very curious

Rescue Toaster
Mar 13, 2003
The DC case seems the most sort of hand-wavey charges though. Obviously everyone knows he's responsible but proving specific how his actions directly led to the insurrection and what not. I don't know. You're right that the jury pool is the most favorable.

Florida documents case is the most absolutely rock solid on the evidence, but is absolutely completely doomed due to the judge. I think Smith is just going through the motions at this point, stick a fork in it. MAYBE if he is guilty of something else and loses the election the judge will let it actually happen but it hardly matters at that point.

GA is just going to take too long to matter. I don't know how the jury pool is drawn there.

I'm still holding out a little hope for the NY criminal case. It seems the smallest potatoes, but it seems a fairly clear cut case, and it is 34 felony indictments, with up to 4 years in prison max each. And for example the most recent damages trial, where there was some speculation about some of the jurors, was a unanimous verdict.

If the DC Jan 6 case gets dragged out much more the NY criminal case is probably going to jump in front of them too, which will be funny. I think the judge there will make a decision in the next month. So if the appeals court and/or SCOTUS are taking their sweet time, well...

Rescue Toaster fucked around with this message at 03:37 on Feb 2, 2024

Hollismason
Jun 30, 2007
An alright dude.

SlurredSpeech609 posted:

Hopefully the courts get moving because that trial has been delayed by his immunity appeal for two months already.

https://www.vox.com/politics/24055503/trump-trials-fani-willis-jack-smith-alvin-bragg

Yeah I mean I think they will. I'm hopeful the DC trial will happen before the election.

Spinz
Jan 7, 2020

I ordered luscious new gemstones from India and made new earrings for my SA mart thread

Remember my earrings and art are much better than my posting

New stuff starts towards end of page 3 of the thread

I can still be surprised ^

SO NUTS

Data Graham
Dec 28, 2009

📈📊🍪😋



BigglesSWE posted:

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1753214919007207657?s=20

Someone missed the "this is a grift movement" call it seems.

Man if she's so utterly gobsmacked that the chudosphere is full of grifters and profiteers instead of people genuinely dedicated to rooting out all the Democrat pedophiles guzzling adrenochrome and plotting the downfall of the white race in the back room of Mount Rushmore, uhhhhh wait'll she finds out the next most unbelievable thing, she should take a big swig of powerade first

Like seriously just trying to put together what it must be like to finally understand that the delusion you've committed yourself to for the last ten years just flat doesn't exist and everything is just ... boring and normal

Raymond T. Racing
Jun 11, 2019

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

A hung jury before the election is basically a not guilty verdict for Trump in the public’s eye.

The only hung jury these days is the one with Hunter on it

CannonFodder
Jan 26, 2001

Passion’s Wrench

Asterite34 posted:

Trump must, by hand, pay $1 to every man, woman and child in America, individually, in alphabetical order
How much you bet he would stiff Stank and Choad on the $1.

Three Olives
Apr 10, 2005

Don't forget Hitler's contributions to medicine.
https://twitter.com/SollenbergerRC/status/1753255371697803534

I think people are completely underestimating how quickly the wheels could completely fall of the Trump campaign considering he is a completely amoral idiot that likes to surround himself with the same.

quote:

Weeks before Nauta—a Navy enlistee stationed with the White House Presidential Support Detail since 2012—traded Washington, D.C. for Palm Beach, Navy officials had escorted him off of White House grounds, reassigned him to a new post, and docked his White House security clearance in response to accusations of fraternization, adultery, harassment, and other inappropriate sexual conduct, including “revenge porn,” two people with direct knowledge of the matter told The Daily Beast.

John Yossarian
Aug 24, 2013
I recently read that Trump met with the union teamsters to get their support, and it might actually work. I know a few people that are in unions and they support Trump, even though he's strongly anti-unions. Biden has probably been the most pro-union president in years, yet these freaks will vote for Trump. It's absolutely nuts.

SlurredSpeech609
Oct 29, 2012

John Yossarian posted:

I recently read that Trump met with the union teamsters to get their support, and it might actually work. I know a few people that are in unions and they support Trump, even though he's strongly anti-unions. Biden has probably been the most pro-union president in years, yet these freaks will vote for Trump. It's absolutely nuts.

We all know a few people that will vote against their own interest but that doesn't mean that the teamsters will endorse trump.

quote:

Trump’s sanguine account of the meeting was undercut in remarks that immediately followed from Teamsters President Sean O’Brien, who praised President Biden even as he left open the question of an endorsement to be decided by members later in the year. O’Brien said the meeting did not include any concessions, commitments or surprising answers from Trump. He was joined by two members who identified their top priority as opposing “right-to-work” laws, putting them at odds with Trump’s support of laws that allow employees in a unionized workplace to opt out of financially supporting the union.

“There’s no question the Biden administration has been great for unions,” O’Brien said. “They all say they’re pro-worker or they say they’re going to support workers … We still have some more questions that need to be asked to both candidates.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/31/trump-teamsters-meeting-unions/

SlurredSpeech609 fucked around with this message at 04:47 on Feb 2, 2024

PKMN Trainer Red
Oct 22, 2007



Philthy
Jan 28, 2003

Pillbug
Every candidate that has been endorsed by Trump has been rejected strongly by the voters. Trump has been cancer for the entire party because no one wants anything to do with him. The actual results speak louder than anything else coming out right now. That's not going to suddenly change, he only gets more and more disliked as time goes on, not the other way around.

John Wick of Dogs
Mar 4, 2017

A real hellraiser


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/01/biden-trump-polling-dislike-both/

Biden up by twelve points with people who dislike both Biden and Trump

Powerful Katrinka
Oct 11, 2021

an admin fat fingered a permaban and all i got was this lousy av

Queen-Of-Hearts posted:

Scholastic Book Slayer

Lol

IncredibleIgloo
Feb 17, 2011





bird with big dick posted:

I’m having sex in the capitol building right now AMA

Is Madison Cawthorn in attendance?

Grammarchist
Jan 28, 2013

I've been reading through "The Clothes Have No Emperor" again and while it's perversely comforting that we've been through times of complete idiocy before, it's also terrifying that Reagan could regularly bounce between 40% and 70% approval based on how long Americans had to forget things.

Not sure I should start another read-through of The Invisible Bridge because it was arduous when I read it back in 2017. I remember it being really good, just harrowing.

SlurredSpeech609
Oct 29, 2012

John Wick of Dogs posted:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/01/biden-trump-polling-dislike-both/

Biden up by twelve points with people who dislike both Biden and Trump
More cautious good news.

quote:

Let’s say, though, that 2024 is in fact Trump vs. Biden and that, once again, a lot of people come to the polls feeling unhappy about those choices. This poll — this one poll, months before the election — suggests that those voters will break for the incumbent president. And in a race that is expected to be close, that might once again make a critical difference.
oof

quote:

Haley’s numbers are interesting. Almost 3 in 10 respondents said they didn’t know enough about her to have an opinion, including a quarter of Republicans — nearly a month into the Republican primary in which she is one of two candidates. Even so, she was underwater, too, by a 15-point margin.

SulfurMonoxideCute
Feb 9, 2008

I was under direct orders not to die
🐵❌💀

Junior's beard looks painted on.

Catastrophe
Oct 5, 2007

Committed to burn twice as long and half as bright

BigglesSWE posted:

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1753214919007207657?s=20

Someone missed the "this is a grift movement" call it seems.

sarcasm: oh no I thought the types of people who went on a "drive trucks against brown people" trek were totally sane, normal people oh no

kntfkr
Feb 11, 2019

GOOSE FUCKER

SulfurMonoxideCute posted:

Junior's beard looks painted on.

got that nathen look

Coolguye
Jul 6, 2011

Required by his programming!

Hollismason posted:

What national party is broke?

the RNC released its financials and while it's an exaggeration to say they are broke, it is not an exaggeration to say that the republican national loving committee has less money on hand and ready to spend going into an election year than donald john trump got fined for his first round of defamation against carrol, and that over the last year it raised less money than the amount jonald dohn trump was fined in the most recent defamation trial.

it was their worst fundraising year since 2009, in the wake of obama's election. only instead of being right after an election year, it's right before it.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Three Olives
Apr 10, 2005

Don't forget Hitler's contributions to medicine.

Coolguye posted:

the RNC released its financials and while it's an exaggeration to say they are broke, it is not an exaggeration to say that the republican national loving committee has less money on hand and ready to spend going into an election year than donald john trump got fined for his first round of defamation against carrol, and that over the last year it raised less money than the amount jonald dohn trump was fined in the most recent defamation trial.

it was their worst fundraising year since 2009, in the wake of obama's election. only instead of being right after an election year, it's right before it.

Something that I think is going to be a bigger thing than people can imagine is how much money is going to be wasted on Trump's vanity during the campaign, it is going to be stupid. Security to throw people out of his events, oversized venues so he can lie and say he sold out arenas, his stupid loving 757 which is completely impractical and stupid expensive to use for almost daily campaigning.

We are going to get to October and there will be article after article about how the campaign is struggling to pay for ads because Trump has wasted $70M flying his 757 around along with another 737 just for campaign staff.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply