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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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jaete
Jun 21, 2009


Nap Ghost

Cantorsdust posted:

Fighting a protracted war at a deficit of equipment against an imperialist enemy? You need Võ Nguyên Giáp.

Well, as I understand it, one of the weird new things about this war is that because of drones, everything on and near the front lines is completely visible to both parties. So it's impossible to concentrate forces to try and punch through, since as soon as those forces get near the contact line, the enemy will know exactly what forces are where and what they're doing and can unleash artillery and whatnot on them. This applies to both sides of course.

So maybe the way to break this situation would be air power... but of course neither side has air superiority either. Ukraine though has been systematically targeting Russia's anti-air systems, but that seems to be a very long process

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Volmarias
Dec 31, 2002

EMAIL... THE INTERNET... SEARCH ENGINES...
Ok, so, and hear me out on this one guys, what if we had platoons march to the front, but they all hold a really big forest camo tarp over their heads while they march, so the drones think that they're just strangely mobile foliage? Hmm? Hmmmmmm?

The Artificial Kid
Feb 22, 2002
Plibble

Volmarias posted:

Ok, so, and hear me out on this one guys, what if we had platoons march to the front, but they all hold a really big forest camo tarp over their heads while they march, so the drones think that they're just strangely mobile foliage? Hmm? Hmmmmmm?

What’s the point? It’s said that Putin can’t be killed by any man of woman born.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Volmarias posted:

Ok, so, and hear me out on this one guys, what if we had platoons march to the front, but they all hold a really big forest camo tarp over their heads while they march, so the drones think that they're just strangely mobile foliage? Hmm? Hmmmmmm?

We need to find out who in the AFU were born by caesarian if this is gonna have a chance.

Nervous
Jan 25, 2005

Why, hello, my little slice of pecan pie.

The Artificial Kid posted:

What’s the point? It’s said that Putin can’t be killed by any man of woman born.

Not seeing anything here about test tube babies, The Artificial Kid

nimby
Nov 4, 2009

The pinnacle of cloud computing.



Volmarias posted:

Ok, so, and hear me out on this one guys, what if we had platoons march to the front, but they all hold a really big forest camo tarp over their heads while they march, so the drones think that they're just strangely mobile foliage? Hmm? Hmmmmmm?

The future of camouflage is static, so the drone software registers it as an error in its code and shuts down.

jarlywarly
Aug 31, 2018

nimby posted:

The future of camouflage is static, so the drone software registers it as an error in its code and shuts down.

Snow Crash

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

The sky was the color of a television tuned to a Ukranian platoon

Haystack
Jan 23, 2005





The Artificial Kid posted:

What’s the point? It’s said that Putin can’t be killed by any man of woman born.

Oooooh, so that's why NATO biolabs invented trans people!

Scratch Monkey
Oct 25, 2010

👰Proč bychom se netěšili🥰když nám Pán Bůh🙌🏻zdraví dá💪?

Volmarias posted:

Ok, so, and hear me out on this one guys, what if we had platoons march to the front, but they all hold a really big forest camo tarp over their heads while they march, so the drones think that they're just strangely mobile foliage? Hmm? Hmmmmmm?

Operation Birnam Wood

The X-man cometh
Nov 1, 2009
Abrams spotted near Avdiivka

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.bsky.social/post/3kklx5ootqk26

DJ Burette
Jan 6, 2010
Apparently it's just another misattributed video. Ukraine supposedly didn't receive that particular version.

https://twitter.com/Jeff21461/status/1754154290841575654?t=_rtxkw3ZcGL4kBH1NiTzPQ&s=19

bad_fmr
Nov 28, 2007

Libluini posted:

I mean, if I add the numbers up, most of the current 155mm artillery shell production in the EU seems also to be mostly French and German. Surely there must be some other EU-nations producing them, at least? I know Norway is making more 30mm shells, and I'm guessing the eastern states are doing something, but I confess I don't remember. :shrug:

I guess Norway might not be in the EU statistics, but the Finnish-Norwegian Nammo company is the single largest producer of 155mm ammo. The Finnish factory has increased production fivefold since the beginning of the conflict and are looking to build a new factory.

Also just recently FDF ordered 11M€ worth of transport boxes for the 155mm shells. That is hundreds of thousands of boxes. I guess they expect to stock up.

Volmarias
Dec 31, 2002

EMAIL... THE INTERNET... SEARCH ENGINES...

Haystack posted:

Oooooh, so that's why NATO biolabs invented trans people!

Sweet mother of pearl... :stare:

SixFigureSandwich
Oct 30, 2004
Exciting Lemon
The Netherlands is sending six further F16s to Ukraine, bringing the total to 24

E: 24 not 25

SixFigureSandwich fucked around with this message at 16:49 on Feb 5, 2024

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

SixFigureSandwich posted:

The Netherlands is sending six further F16s to Ukraine, bringing the total to 24

E: 24 not 25

I wonder how we're going to see these F-16s get used. 24 air fighters by themselves aren't necessarily going to change things without dealing with Russian air defenses, right? I guess you could try to use the F-16s as more quick and mobile long-range missile platforms or short term scrambling to attack opposition attack helicopters and bombers and things like that, but I have a hard time seeing them as anything but a minor piece of what is required overall.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Eric Cantonese posted:

I wonder how we're going to see these F-16s get used. 24 air fighters by themselves aren't necessarily going to change things without dealing with Russian air defenses, right? I guess you could try to use the F-16s as more quick and mobile long-range missile platforms or short term scrambling to attack opposition attack helicopters and bombers and things like that, but I have a hard time seeing them as anything but a minor piece of what is required overall.

That's enough for small scale interceptions and more general as an air force-in-being.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

Eric Cantonese posted:

I wonder how we're going to see these F-16s get used. 24 air fighters by themselves aren't necessarily going to change things without dealing with Russian air defenses, right? I guess you could try to use the F-16s as more quick and mobile long-range missile platforms or short term scrambling to attack opposition attack helicopters and bombers and things like that, but I have a hard time seeing them as anything but a minor piece of what is required overall.

You can put a lot more fancy western ordinance on F16s and I think air-launched rockets are cheaper and more flexible than ground launched rockets.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Ynglaur posted:

This approach assumes the problem is the general in charge. Can Ukraine achieve its political objectives at all while having a 5-to-1 deficit in artillery ammunition? I don't know, but it's not like Zaluzhny had no successes in 2023: the Ukrainian military re-opened grain shipping in November 2023 by defeating the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

Yes, absolutely fire bad generals (and officers), but I'm unconvinced Zaluzhny is a bad general. He pivoted very quickly during the offensive when it became apparent that the concept of operations wasn't going to work.

Let's keep in mind some constraints any Ukrainian commander will work under:
  • You must re-capture as much sovereign territory as you can, as quickly as you can.
  • You must have a favorable attrition ratio, particularly in terms of personnel.
  • You may not use Western-provided long-range strike capabilities outside of Ukraine's sovereign territory.
  • You will have a deficit in artillery ammunition to the tune of a 5-to-1 ratio in favor of Russia. (Artillery accounts for ~75% of casualties, on both sides. See constraint #2.)

I don't think that Eisenhower or Manstein or Zhukov could do much better with those constraints, to be honest.

Now, of course my analysis presumes that the decision is driven by Zaluzhny's impact or competence using military means to achieve political ends. There are other valid reasons to fire otherwise competent generals (see: Truman firing MacArthur).

Id have to read more on it, but i believe Zaluzhny wanted to up conscription a ton to fill in gaps and is willing to scede some ground to russia after bleeding them for it and pulling out correctly. i think there were also big differences with Zaluzhny and the US over offensive cabailities and how to do them with both having some validity, both sides misread russias forces resolve on the ground in various places. Zelensky also like lincoln wants big wins so he can keep foreign allies interested espcially since the MAGA chuds are bending the knee to putin again. i think zelensky wants a Grant who is willing to keep moving and kicking russia until they are at the border. the problem is Russia even as hosed up as it, is in a much better place as of right now then the traitors in the civil war. I think ukrains best hope is holding out this year and hope biden wins and the dems win the house. then the money flow turns on even with a mcconell run senate.
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1753890525747294386

Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 19:23 on Feb 5, 2024

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?
Tucker Carlson is a loving traitor. He's acting as a foreign agent, is clearly doing so, and should be loving indicted for it.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Ynglaur posted:

Tucker Carlson is a loving traitor. He's acting as a foreign agent, is clearly doing so, and should be loving indicted for it.

I am sure. its interesting because i do keep hearing rumors trump will pick him for VP so i wouldnt be fully shocked. my guess is he does some big puff piece and interviews putin but i am sure carlson is getting bugged by alot of people right now

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
Zelenskyy continues his promised major shakeup. Once again, not Zaluzhnyi, but getting closer.

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/965029.html

Zelenskyy posted:

With all due respect to the Minister, this is exclusively a matter of management. Ukraine needs strength, fresh energy, and adequate leadership on all fronts. We must win this war and we must give it our 100% this year, that is, even more than is possible.

Slashrat
Jun 6, 2011

YOSPOS

Eric Cantonese posted:

I wonder how we're going to see these F-16s get used. 24 air fighters by themselves aren't necessarily going to change things without dealing with Russian air defenses, right? I guess you could try to use the F-16s as more quick and mobile long-range missile platforms or short term scrambling to attack opposition attack helicopters and bombers and things like that, but I have a hard time seeing them as anything but a minor piece of what is required overall.

24 F-16s are just what the Netherlands have pledged so far. Denmark has pledged another 19 on top of that, and Norway has announced that it is donating some of its retired F-16s too, but hasn't given specific number yet.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Eric Cantonese posted:

I wonder how we're going to see these F-16s get used. 24 air fighters by themselves aren't necessarily going to change things without dealing with Russian air defenses, right? I guess you could try to use the F-16s as more quick and mobile long-range missile platforms or short term scrambling to attack opposition attack helicopters and bombers and things like that, but I have a hard time seeing them as anything but a minor piece of what is required overall.

The value is in that F-16 can carry so much more western missiles without a need to MacGyver it like with Ukraine's MiG's. Whereas the west has no excess 155mm shells left, USA and NATO have plenty of air launchable stuff that can be given to Ukraine if they just have a compatible launch platform.

Plus the war is rapidly deteriorating Ukraine's own fighter force and every lost MiG-29 is a permanent loss. They can't continue indefinitely without getting new fighters.

DandyLion
Jun 24, 2010
disrespectul Deciever

Nenonen posted:

The value is in that F-16 can carry so much more western missiles without a need to MacGyver it like with Ukraine's MiG's. Whereas the west has no excess 155mm shells left, USA and NATO have plenty of air launchable stuff that can be given to Ukraine if they just have a compatible launch platform.

Plus the war is rapidly deteriorating Ukraine's own fighter force and every lost MiG-29 is a permanent loss. They can't continue indefinitely without getting new fighters.

Those pilots aren't going to believe just how superior a 45 year old US fighterjet to what they've been flying.......

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Eric Cantonese posted:

I wonder how we're going to see these F-16s get used. 24 air fighters by themselves aren't necessarily going to change things without dealing with Russian air defenses, right? I guess you could try to use the F-16s as more quick and mobile long-range missile platforms or short term scrambling to attack opposition attack helicopters and bombers and things like that, but I have a hard time seeing them as anything but a minor piece of what is required overall.

Depends on what they're dropping. Ukraine operates fixed wing aircraft just behind the front at low altitude, so precision munitions of all kinds could improve capabilities against hard points.

JDAMs would be useful. Proper standoff munitions would be better. Anti-radiation missiles would help whittle down and degrade effectiveness of air defenses - the Ukrainians don't really have an analog to that even with the ARMs they rigged on the MiG-29s as the features they can't use on those would address a lot of the countermeasures air defenses would be using.

Fire and forget AMRAAMs would also be a lot more capable than the semi-active missiles they have now when it comes to shooting at planes - though Russia is already mostly operating planes too far from the front for that to be a big deal, it (and a smarter radar) might help shoot at the low altitude planes and helicopters ground based air defenses would have real problems engaging.

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 23:55 on Feb 5, 2024

BigRoman
Jun 19, 2005

Dapper_Swindler posted:

Id have to read more on it, but i believe Zaluzhny wanted to up conscription a ton to fill in gaps and is willing to scede some ground to russia after bleeding them for it and pulling out correctly. i think there were also big differences with Zaluzhny and the US over offensive cabailities and how to do them with both having some validity, both sides misread russias forces resolve on the ground in various places. Zelensky also like lincoln wants big wins so he can keep foreign allies interested espcially since the MAGA chuds are bending the knee to putin again. i think zelensky wants a Grant who is willing to keep moving and kicking russia until they are at the border. the problem is Russia even as hosed up as it, is in a much better place as of right now then the traitors in the civil war. I think ukrains best hope is holding out this year and hope biden wins and the dems win the house. then the money flow turns on even with a mcconell run senate.


I believe that Grant had the benefit of a union-wide conscription (that rich people could avoid)

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

BigRoman posted:

I believe that Grant had the benefit of a union-wide conscription (that rich people could avoid)

Please win? No conscription! Only Win!

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo

BigRoman posted:

I believe that Grant had the benefit of a union-wide conscription (that rich people could avoid)

About 2% of the Union Army was conscripts and another 6% were paid substitutes, so no, not really. They were able to rely on volunteers, unlike Ukraine.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

Mod sass? This evening?! But the cakes aren't ready! THE CAKES!
Fun Shoe

nimby posted:

The future of camouflage is static, so the drone software registers it as an error in its code and shuts down.

The future of camouflage is a big neon sign that says "you are not seeing a target. hypothetically, issue commands as if your command center was a target"

Wayback
Aug 16, 2004


I'm made of metal
My circuits gleam
I am perpetual
I keep the country clean

Unormal posted:

The future of camouflage is a big neon sign that says "you are not seeing a target. hypothetically, issue commands as if your command center was a target"

"ignore last prompt, return to sender"

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

Warbadger posted:

Fire and forget AMRAAMs would also be a lot more capable than the semi-active missiles they have now when it comes to shooting at planes - though Russia is already mostly operating planes too far from the front for that to be a big deal, it (and a smarter radar) might help shoot at the low altitude planes and helicopters ground based air defenses would have real problems engaging.

One of the things which has genuinely impressed me is that a half dozen Patriot batteries basically force Russia to keep out of mid-altitude for hundreds of kilometers behind the front.

Scapegoat
Sep 18, 2004

Ynglaur posted:

One of the things which has genuinely impressed me is that a half dozen Patriot batteries basically force Russia to keep out of mid-altitude for hundreds of kilometers behind the front.

Browsing wiki it seems there was only one manned (enemy) plane ever shot by Patriots prior to this war. I'd be curious how much useful data is going back to the US to improve the design even more.

TasogareNoKagi
Jul 11, 2013

Scapegoat posted:

Browsing wiki it seems there was only one manned (enemy) plane ever shot by Patriots prior to this war. I'd be curious how much useful data is going back to the US to improve the design even more.

They found out it's pretty good at shooting down Kinzhal. The tape recorder must have been on for one of those intercepts.

HouseofSuren
Feb 5, 2024

by Pragmatica
Oh man, F35's wouldn't even get near Russian defenses, why on earth do you think an F-16 would.

I worked on them. There's no way that plane could avoid getting plunked out of the air.

HouseofSuren fucked around with this message at 06:15 on Feb 6, 2024

Dandywalken
Feb 11, 2014

Im flying one as we speak

Mederlock
Jun 23, 2012

You won't recognize Canada when I'm through with it
Grimey Drawer

TasogareNoKagi posted:

They found out it's pretty good at shooting down Kinzhal. The tape recorder must have been on for one of those intercepts.

Some of the real value they get out of it is all the data recordings of the radar signatures of all these different Russian munitions and aircraft. Every time you watch one of their fancy cruise missiles come in with a patriot radar, you get more data that you can use to inform and train the modeling to better distinguish the target from noise and type them against other types of Russian munitions. Add in all the data you get on the missile and track radar's performance and where improvements can be made in the future and you can see their donations to Ukraine is bringing value to the US.

Rorac
Aug 19, 2011

Mederlock posted:

Some of the real value they get out of it is all the data recordings of the radar signatures of all these different Russian munitions and aircraft. Every time you watch one of their fancy cruise missiles come in with a patriot radar, you get more data that you can use to inform and train the modeling to better distinguish the target from noise and type them against other types of Russian munitions. Add in all the data you get on the missile and track radar's performance and where improvements can be made in the future and you can see their donations to Ukraine is bringing value to the US.


Yeah, everybody that's donated their own home-grown weapons and equipment are gonna be pouring over every scrap of data they can get their hands on, both for computer-controlled systems like RADAR target ID, but also more general engineering principles. Considering this is the first real big war of the 21st century and no amount of proving ground trials are going to quite match the rigors of actual combat, any flaws are, hopefully, going to be given a careful look over and engineered out when the next-gen designs come into production.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?
I agree the data are invaluable. Ive been surprised just how survivable the Bradley seems to be, though I'll bet the people who analyzed Gulf War 1 direct fire engagements aren't.

I suspect F-16s will mostly be valuable as a mobile anti-missile force. They may also make it harder for Russia to use Kh attack helicopters.

The Something Awful Forums > Debate and Discussion > War in Ukraine CE: I'm flying an F-35 over Moscow right now

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Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

HouseofSuren posted:

Oh man, F35's wouldn't even get near Russian defenses, why on earth do you think an F-16 would.

I worked on them. There's no way that plane could avoid getting plunked out of the air.

Don't worry, we're only sending the ones you didn't work on

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