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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:One thing that I wish we could follow up on is why 18-29 year olds and black voters who identify as moderate are turned off by Biden, but left-wing 18-29 year olds and black voters are much less so. It is always kind of assumed that the dissatisfaction was coming from the more left-wing populations of those groups. Inflation, inflation, inflation. As they say, "it's the economy, stupid". In my experience, only left-wing people that hate Biden assume that the dissatisfaction is primarily coming from the left. Actual polling has pretty consistently demonstrated that Biden's bigger problem is with people who don't give a gently caress about culture war issues either way but are real mad about how much grocery prices have risen.
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Feb 7, 2024 17:01
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I am the very model of a modern moderate voter
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Feb 7, 2024 17:02
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I feel like "moderate" is the new "independent" as far as being the term of choice for GOP-leaning people who aren't total true believers. This isn't based on anything in terms of hard data, though.
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Feb 7, 2024 17:05
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Eric Cantonese posted:I feel like "moderate" is the new "independent" as far as being the term of choice for GOP-leaning people who aren't total true believers. More than half of black voters identify as moderate and they almost all voted for Biden in 2020. Unless there really is a 30-point shift to Trump among black voters, then it wouldn't apply to most of the the black voters who disapprove of Biden now. It may be more true for the 18-29 demographic, but there still wasn't a huge amount of GOP leaners in that group that voted Biden in 2020.
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Feb 7, 2024 17:09
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Eric Cantonese posted:I feel like "moderate" is the new "independent" as far as being the term of choice for GOP-leaning people who aren't total true believers. yeah. i think moderate is a range from "social liberal/econ conservative" indipendents to moderate GOP types who will hold their nose for biden because they hate MAGA to conservative dems
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Feb 7, 2024 17:13
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Arizona Company and CEO Sentenced for Illegal Distribution of Tianeptine and Other Drugs and Ordered to Forfeit $2.4 Millionquote:Centera Bioscience, d/b/a Nootropics Depot, was sentenced by U.S. Magistrate Judge Talesha Saint-Marc to three years of probation. The company’s CEO, Paul Eftang, 38, was sentenced to one year of probation. The defendants have also paid a $2.4 million forfeiture and surrendered all drugs seized by the FDA and Customs and Border Protection. On October 30, 2023, Centera and Eftang pleaded guilty to the introduction of misbranded drugs into interstate commerce. He's posting through it. No, I don't get why they are forfeiting so much less than they've made.
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Feb 7, 2024 17:21
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Kagrenak posted:lmao at touting that ABInbev has a workforce comprising of 2.3% veterans, a rate 3x lower than the general population. Otoh I would be concerned if they had a proportionate number of Korean and Vietnam war veterans on their pay roll 
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Feb 7, 2024 17:22
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:More than half of black voters identify as moderate and they almost all voted for Biden in 2020. Unless there really is a 30-point shift to Trump among black voters, then it wouldn't apply to most of the the black voters who disapprove of Biden now. Has anyone done any studies/polls on whether inflation has hit certain racial groups harder than others? Given the socioeconomic differences that are tied to race, I wouldn't be surprised if inflation is hitting Biden's approval harder with respect to Hispanic and Black voters.
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Feb 7, 2024 17:27
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Main Paineframe posted:Inflation, inflation, inflation. As they say, "it's the economy, stupid". Speaking of, debt's up, and per the bolded section and how heavily race and income correlates.... https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/06/credit-card-delinquencies-surged-in-2023-indicating-financial-stress-new-york-fed-says.html quote:Credit card delinquencies surged more than 50% in 2023 as total consumer debt swelled to $17.5 trillion, the New York Federal Reserve reported Tuesday.
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Feb 7, 2024 17:27
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what's the current nitter replacement since it died? i can't read all that polling data without a twitter account otherwise and ill be dead and in the ground before i make one
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Feb 7, 2024 17:32
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:i.e. the old problem where people with hugely extreme views, but a few of them are on the left and a few are on the right ("I want to nationalize the pharmaceutical industry and build the wall.") consider themselves moderate rather than the "traditional" idea of what a moderate is and get mixed together with other "moderates" who actually have hugely different views. Wait, is that... not the traditional definition of moderate? Edit: Maybe I'm thinking of independent, I forgot those were different
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Feb 7, 2024 17:34
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Here's a new poll that was just released about an hour ago that sort of demonstrates the huge potential variation in poll results the GSG analyst highlighted. Biden is one point ahead among registered voters (within the MoE), 3 points ahead among likely voters (within the MoE), and 6 points ahead (outside the MoE) among registered voters if Trump is convicted of a crime. That's anywhere from a narrow Trump win to a sizable Biden win based entirely on whether the poll is accurately measuring how people will react to Trump's legal issues. https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1755267605550555288
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Feb 7, 2024 17:35
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:One thing that I wish we could follow up on is why 18-29 year olds and black voters who identify as moderate are turned off by Biden, but left-wing 18-29 year olds and black voters are much less so. It is always kind of assumed that the dissatisfaction was coming from the more left-wing populations of those groups. A few possible explanations that I don't necessarily buy
Or YouGov is having a rough quarter and trying to get headlines to sell their revenue-driving corporate solutions. Potentially more likely than any of the above.
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Feb 7, 2024 17:36
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:I am the very model of a modern moderate voter You have mild brain damage and lack object permanence?
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Feb 7, 2024 17:36
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KillHour posted:You have mild brain damage and lack object permanence? That is more "undecided" voters than "moderate" voters. Moderate voter doesn't really mean anything when you ask them to drill down their beliefs. There isn't a unified single "moderate" political identity comprised of specific policy beliefs. There was that famous study from 2016 (so it could be totally different now) that showed that the least represented group in politics are people with much more left-wing economic views than the average American, but much more right-wing social views than the average American. Something like 28% of Americans fell into this group and less than 4% of politicians fell into it. Most of them self-identified as moderate. The most overrepresented group was the opposite: Libertarian or economically conservative/socially liberal. Only around 10% of Americans fell into it, but around 25% of politicians fell into it. Most of them also self-identified as moderate. So, a lot of moderates actually want to tax the rich, have universal government-provided healthcare, mandate prayer in schools, increase education spending, deport all illegal immigrants, restrict abortion (but, not ban it entirely), and keep trans women out of sports. Which aren't really issue positions that most people think of when they think of a "moderate" voter. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 17:46 on Feb 7, 2024 |
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Feb 7, 2024 17:44
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KillHour posted:You have mild brain damage and lack object permanence? He definitely doesn't know the kings of England, but he'll quote some fights historical.
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Feb 7, 2024 17:47
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Eric Cantonese posted:Has anyone done any studies/polls on whether inflation has hit certain racial groups harder than others? Given the socioeconomic differences that are tied to race, I wouldn't be surprised if inflation is hitting Biden's approval harder with respect to Hispanic and Black voters. Generally it's been hitting non-white groups less bad, mainly because the largest wage increases were in the lowest-wage industries. While the professional class saw significant decreases in real income, a lot of low-wage workers saw much smaller drops (though, of course, they can also afford to lose a lot less). Personally, I think the issue is just that someone who still self-identifies as a moderate these days just doesn't have a ton of strong stances on political issues - leaving them free to switch back and forth based on vibes and economic perception without getting tripped up by things like "caring what the candidates' actual issue positions are".
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Feb 7, 2024 17:48
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Main Paineframe posted:Inflation, inflation, inflation. As they say, "it's the economy, stupid". Doesn't grocery prices come down to the issue that the food industry raised prices because COVID and then realized they don't have to lower them back down Also, I really want to meet the person who is pro-nationalize pharmaceuticals and also pro-wall
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Feb 7, 2024 17:55
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Only around 10% of Americans fell into it, but around 25% of politicians fell into it. Most of them also self-identified as moderate. So a lot of moderate voters are literal national(ist) socialists.
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Feb 7, 2024 17:55
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Doesn't grocery prices come down to the issue that the food industry raised prices because COVID and then realized they don't have to lower them back down It's not illegal anti-competitive practices if you just kind of do it organically while looking around at the marketplace with no one saying the quiet part out loud
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Feb 7, 2024 18:03
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my two cents are moderates/fairweathers are spoiled entitled pieces of poo poo that are angry that they still have to pay attention and care.
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Feb 7, 2024 18:09
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Also, I really want to meet the person who is pro-nationalize pharmaceuticals and also pro-wall It was a not insignificant amount of people in 2016. Something like 10% of Clinton voters and 20% of Trump voters were in the "more liberal economically than average, but more conservative socially than average" vote quadrant.  Kagrenak posted:So a lot of moderate voters are literal national(ist) socialists. Sort of. It depends on how you frame it and to what degree you fall into each issue. That same description of "more socially conservative than the average American and more economically liberal than the average American" would apply to many black voters, literal national socialists or voters who would support a European National Front-type party, old school labor Democrats, and the ~20% of Republicans who think the government should set prescription prices. That is also why grouping everyone who identifies as "moderate" into one ideological group isn't really useful. Roughly 35% to 40% of the U.S. identifies as "moderate" and they do not all want the same things. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 18:14 on Feb 7, 2024 |
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Feb 7, 2024 18:09
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Devor posted:It's not illegal anti-competitive practices if you just kind of do it organically while looking around at the marketplace with no one saying the quiet part out loud Right but that also means that regardless of who wins the election, barring some sort of "okay our guy won, let's lower prices to make them look better" conspiracy, prices won't go down. If people are ACTUALLY as angry as they claim to be, it'll be interesting to see what changes in the coming year. Edit: added a quote for context
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Feb 7, 2024 18:11
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Discendo Vox posted:Arizona Company and CEO Sentenced for Illegal Distribution of Tianeptine and Other Drugs and Ordered to Forfeit $2.4 Million I used to read about nootropics on reddit and that account was very prominent in advertising products and giving advice on what people should consume and how. I read the worst stories about phenibut there; it is supposed to be terribly addictive in the same manner as benzodiazepines and alcohol.
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Feb 7, 2024 18:16
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Kagrenak posted:So a lot of moderate voters are literal national(ist) socialists. Ime some are, but most just don't have the kind of grounding in history, political theory, etc to choose a more appropriate label for themselves. They just know they object to parts of both parties' platforms and figure that puts them in between, and therefore moderate. It's really more an identity than an ideology.
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Feb 7, 2024 18:20
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Trump famously said he was going to negotiate lower prescription drug prices in 2016, but never did as President. Now, he's running* on raising them. *To be fair, he's not technically running on raising them, but he is just not talking about it during the campaign anymore while telling drug companies he will help get the prices back up. https://twitter.com/JesseFFerguson/status/1755219987877298532 quote:If Donald Trump returns to the White House, the self-proclaimed master negotiator could get his shot at brokering Medicare prices for drugs. quote:The Inflation Reduction Act sets out how many drugs Medicare must negotiate, what factors it should consider, and the types of drugs up for negotiations. quote:A Trump health secretary likely wouldn't push for prices below what's required by law, Blase said. quote:It's not clear whether Trump would push for legislative changes to drug negotiations. Trump advisers said he would "gut" the IRA's climate and energy provisions, while key Republican lawmakers have expressed interest in repealing drug negotiations. quote:"The longer it goes on, the more entrenched it'll be, [and] the harder it would be to unwind," she said.
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Feb 7, 2024 18:26
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:It was a not insignificant amount of people in 2016. "Social conservative" also needs further crosstabs like "moderate" I guess. Someone who is pro-abortion and mandatory gay-marriage but also pro-wall would seem to break a lot of traditional metrics. Demsneedtobemoreracist.tweet
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Feb 7, 2024 18:28
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Kalli posted:Speaking of, debt's up, and per the bolded section and how heavily race and income correlates.... One thing I'll point out about this, delinquencies on auto loans and revolving credit, every year it always peaks in January/February, and magically always drastically falls over the next couple months. Some people do it on purpose, some have no choice, but people's delinquencies always get highest right before tax refund season hits. Every year, though, the media dusts off a scare story about how loan delinquencies are going up and The Next Crisis is right around the corner, but 2 months later everyone gets their tax refund and everything goes back to normal.
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Feb 7, 2024 18:32
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Do y’all seriously think that “left economically and racist” is some unicorn position? Need I remind you who FDR compromised with to pass the New Deal?
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Feb 7, 2024 18:43
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Do y’all seriously think that “left economically and racist” is some unicorn position? Need I remind you who FDR compromised with to pass the New Deal? yeah. I think alot of people have lots of complicated/dumb/good politics and usually have already decided who they want to vote for OR some weird random stuff and life events decide it.
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Feb 7, 2024 18:49
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Do y’all seriously think that “left economically and racist” is some unicorn position? Need I remind you who FDR compromised with to pass the New Deal? Why not? It's not as if it costs you money to spell it out
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Feb 7, 2024 18:50
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Doesn't grocery prices come down to the issue that the food industry raised prices because COVID and then realized they don't have to lower them back down Not particularly. There's been a bunch of supply shocks in the food industry in recent years. Not only did the pandemic completely upend food supply chains more than once, but one of the world's biggest grain exporters got invaded, bird flu swept through chicken populations, and high energy costs have affected food supply chains as well. And that's just the stuff that I, a layman not involved in food industries, know off the top of my head. It's certainly true that those increased prices have been a bit sticky, but the global economy in general still hasn't really completely stabilized from all that stuff either, so it's only natural that companies wouldn't be in any hurry to cut prices.
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Feb 7, 2024 18:55
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Do y’all seriously think that “left economically and racist” is some unicorn position? Need I remind you who FDR compromised with to pass the New Deal? Yah but often in the media write large they don't talk about that as the moderate position but to your point everyone the fiscally conservative/liberal social runs for office they barely break through.
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Feb 7, 2024 18:56
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Bugsy posted:He and Burkman have been busy accosting people is the worst To Catch a Predator ripoff ever. With the supposed predator being there to meet a 36 year old woman, and knowing that he was going to meet a 36 year old woman. No clue how they aren't in a Maryland jail for surrounding this guy with drawn pistols. The daily beast story on this is wild and I cannot fathom what the gently caress even happened here. Like I *get* wohl's previous grifts. They were stupid and the guy should be in prison but the through line is absolutely there in a way that makes sense in a very stupid way. Elizabeth Warren's bdsm slave? Stupid, but I get what they are going for. This one is just bizarre. They 'entrapped' a guy with a regular rear end tinder date in which he did nothing wrong, likely committed some form of crime (false imprisonment) in wrongfully holding him, didn't seem to understand that their own scam made no sense and then blasted this guy to his landlord, employer and everyone else they could as a sex pest. Even though, by their own whack-rear end theory, coming to meet a 16 year old (which he didn't do) wouldn't even technically be a crime. They just randomly ruined this guy's life for no understandable reason. Anyways if you want some nostalgic laughs here is a good documentary (part 1 even) about how hosed Jacob Wohl is. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iggVHtOwq64
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Feb 7, 2024 18:56
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Caros posted:The daily beast story on this is wild and I cannot fathom what the gently caress even happened here. I guess he's the personification of the "to own the libs" joke. Just do a bunch of random dumb poo poo that causes a ton of collateral damage and then declare the libs owned quote:Anyways if you want some nostalgic laughs here is a good documentary (part 1 even) about how hosed Jacob Wohl is. This was posted two years ago. How is he still doing this today
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Feb 7, 2024 19:01
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Caros posted:
Ruining peoples lives gets clicks and, reading between the lines, they thought he was in an interracial marriage, which is plenty reason for the right wing to target someone.
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Feb 7, 2024 19:06
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haveblue posted:
The same way James O'Keefe was able to. Two different justice systems and/or the support of someone with money and influence. Somehow even worse considering Wohl is already a convicted felon guilty of telecommunications fraud and yet is still doing this poo poo.
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Feb 7, 2024 19:08
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The fact that O'Keefe was caught red-handed trying to wiretap a sitting Congressperson and the official response was "lol, that scamp, I mean who hasn't, rite?" is just one of those distopia markers that would seem heavy-handed in a comic book.
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Feb 7, 2024 19:35
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Sephyr posted:The fact that O'Keefe was caught red-handed trying to wiretap a sitting Congressperson and the official response was "lol, that scamp, I mean who hasn't, rite?" is just one of those distopia markers that would seem heavy-handed in a comic book. To be fair to O'Keefe, it wasn't even really an attempt to wiretap. It was a comically bad plan and the details from the FBI report are hilarious. They literally dressed up like cartoon repairmen, asked someone to take them to the Senator's phone, got asked for ID, didn't know what to do, faked a phone call, ran away, and got arrested. quote:At approximately 11:00 a.m., Basel, Flanagan, and O’Keefe entered the federal building and passed through the security screening. Their purpose was to orchestrate a conversation about phone calls to the Senator’s staff and capture the resulting conversation on video. Dai remained outside to provide support. Basel and Flanagan were each dressed like telephone repairmen, wearing blue denim pants, a blue work shirt, a fluorescent green vest, a tool belt, and a white hard hat. One of the hats contained a video recording device installed on the brim. quote:O’Keefe entered Senator Landrieu’s office first and positioned a digital video recorder made to look like a cellular telephone in his hand to record the interaction. He told the staff that he was waiting for a friend. He recorded the subsequent interaction. quote:Basel and Flanagan each pretended to call the office phone with their own cellular phones, and they said the calls would not go through. O’Keefe also interjected and said he had previously placed a call to the office that would not go through. quote:Basel then told a staff member that he and Flanagan needed to perform repair work on the main phone system, and he asked that they be taken to the “central box.” The staff member directed them to the office of the General Services Administration (GSA), and Basel and Flanagan followed the staff member to GSA’s office inside the Hale Boggs Federal Building. Upon meeting a GSA employee, Basel and Flanagan again said they were telephone repairmen, and Basel again asked to be taken to the phone system’s “central box.” quote:The GSA employee asked Basel and Flanagan if they had a work order or credentials, and they responded that they had left both their work order and credentials in their vehicle, parked just outside of the building. The GSA employee then informed Basel and Flanagan that he would escort them to their truck so that they could provide him with the work order and their credentials. https://archives.fbi.gov/archives/neworleans/press-releases/2010/no052610b.htm
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Feb 7, 2024 19:46
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FlamingLiberal posted:IMO I think odds are higher that this is a lower turnout election than 2020 than third party candidates make a major difference There was a poll of Wisconsin just released today that seems to support your theory. With the obvious caveat that this is just Wisconsin and just one poll, enthusiasm for both candidates is down massively from 2020. 2020 had 70% say they were very enthusiastic about voting and had 71% turnout in Wisconsin (the highest since 2004) and 66% turnout nationally (the highest since 1960). That means voter enthusiasm is down ~30% compared to 2020. https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1755299402778841319 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 19:55 on Feb 7, 2024 |
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Feb 7, 2024 19:51
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