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Rakeris
Jul 20, 2014

Ms Adequate posted:

Yeah, and from Trump's narcissistic perspective it's even worse because he appointed them to the SCOTUS, as far as he's concerned that means they owe him absolute fealty to a degree even other people in his orbit might just be able to wheedle out of.

How is cert decided by the SC anyway? I think I heard it needs at least four Justices to agree to hear grant cert, but I don't know if I made that up in my head, if it's convention rather than law, or what. I can easily believe they can only wrangle two or three Justices to want to deal with this though, especially if the expectation is that the SCOTUS would just affirm today's ruling.

You are correct, 4 justices need to vote to grant cert for them to hear the case.

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Zero_Grade
Mar 18, 2004

Darktider 🖤🌊

~Neck Angels~

I'm pretty sure it's technically a norm, as the formal right to appeal to the SC seems to have been removed from the US Code. The vast majority of cert appeals are denied, and yes you need 4 of the 9 justices to agree to have your case heard (although I believe this is also not actual legislation)

An actual lawperson is welcome to correct me, of course.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound
There are also a small number of cases every year that fall under the Court's original jurisdiction, I believe.

Sarcastro
Dec 28, 2000
Elite member of the Grammar Nazi Squad that

Knight007au posted:

Man Texas sucks sooo much I think at this point it would be in US's best interest to just give Texas back to Mexico.

I don't disagree at all, but let's try to arrange a trade for the Baja Californias, at least.

SpelledBackwards
Jan 7, 2001

I found this image on the Internet, perhaps you've heard of it? It's been around for a while I hear.

smoobles posted:

Presidents can jaywalk, download mp3s, and sneak 1 (one) snack into the movie theater

Tell that to Ulysses S. Grant and his horse!

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

SpelledBackwards posted:

Tell that to Ulysses S. Grant and his horse!

I've thought for a long time that Grant's speeding ticket was actually a good precedent to cite. IANAL, though.

Captain_Maclaine
Sep 30, 2001

Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

SpelledBackwards posted:

Tell that to Ulysses S. Grant and his horse!

He was no longer riding Cincinnati at that point but was driving a carriage. To his credit, Grant took the hit, paid his fine, and went out of his way to prevent the officer, who was black, from suffering any retaliation for enforcing speeding laws in a part of DC that had seen hit and runs recently.

The Narrator
Aug 11, 2011

bernie would have won
I can't believe this is how I find out that speed limits existed pre-automobile.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



The Narrator posted:

I can't believe this is how I find out that speed limits existed pre-automobile.

If you think about how hosed up you’d get if a running horse hit you, it makes sense. A 2,000 lbs horse going 45 mph will ruin your rear end.

As seen in the documentary Deadwood.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.
Please do not post about a one-ton horse ruining my rear end.

BlackIronHeart
Aug 2, 2004

PROCEED
Mr. Hands proved they don't even have to be going that fast.

DarkHorse
Dec 13, 2006

Vroom vroom, BEEP BEEP!
Nap Ghost

Discendo Vox posted:

Please do not post about a one-ton horse ruining my rear end.

Mike Pence has entered the chat

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

DarkHorse posted:

Mike Pence has entered the chat

Unfathomably strong avatar/post/topic/username synergy here

edit: DarkHorse for DnD mod

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



You could call them… a DarkHorse candidate.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

The Narrator posted:

I can't believe this is how I find out that speed limits existed pre-automobile.

Scene: A road side. There are two men. One is dressed very well in expensive clothes. The other has been trampled and left in a bloody heap on the ground. There is a horse.

Man: Oh gently caress. I'm so screwed. My dad will literally kill me for this. Unless....

Cannonball! You got to take the fall for me on this! You have to tell the guard that you were on your own, you ran too fast and you hit this guy!
I'll make sure you are protected and you'll get the best defense. But they can't know that I was the one in the saddle. Do you understand?

Cannonball: Neigh.

FizFashizzle
Mar 30, 2005







The Narrator posted:

I can't believe this is how I find out that speed limits existed pre-automobile.

“No more than a trot through the thoroughfare.”

Tatsuta Age
Apr 21, 2005

so good at being in trouble


BlackIronHeart posted:

Mr. Hands proved they don't even have to be going that fast.

ok, bravo

DarkHorse
Dec 13, 2006

Vroom vroom, BEEP BEEP!
Nap Ghost

Discendo Vox posted:

Unfathomably strong avatar/post/topic/username synergy here

edit: DarkHorse for DnD mod

Don't you put that evil on me

I'm Idiot King material at best

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!
https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1755250195095289959

The Daily Beast has some detail on the monetary hurdles of Trump's potential civil appeals. I recommend a bit of caution on any of the opinion or speculation in the piece, because the overall tone has the hallmarks of the gleeful "he's so screwed, share with your blue wave friends!" Meidasesque nonsense that's been flooding the market since 2016. A really brief look at the process itself, though, seems to check out with the reporting.

quote:

Inside Donald Trump’s Incredible Cash Crunch
WALL OF DEBT
Jose Pagliery
Political Investigations Reporter
Published Feb. 07, 2024 4:39AM EST
EXCLUSIVE

Donald Trump is just days away from getting slammed with a court judgment that could be worth hundreds of millions of dollars as a punishment for his decades of bank fraud with the Trump Organization. And two little-known New York laws could leave Trump scrambling for cash: a requirement that he immediately front the money to appeal the decision, and a sky-high state interest rate.

During a deposition with the New York Attorney General in April 2023, Trump boasted that he had $400 million in cash, bragging about how it’s “a lot for a developer.” But even if that were true, it likely won’t be enough to simultaneously cover last month’s $83 million verdict at his rape defamation trial—which he needs to immediately set aside to appeal that case—and the $370 million demanded by the AG for his incessant lying to banks.

While the judge deciding the bank fraud case hasn’t come up with a final figure that Trump owes, every indication is that it will be into the hundreds of millions. A message from the judge on Tuesday actually suggested it could be even more than what the New York AG is seeking.

Trump’s sudden cash demands are exacerbated by a quirk in New York law. Not only would the judgment get automatically inflated by an unusually high interest rate of 9 percent, but Trump would need to give the court the enlarged total—plus an extra 10 to 20 percent—in order to appeal and have another day in court. And it would all be due by mid-March.

The self-proclaimed billionaire real estate tycoon is about to be caught in a trap of his own making, forced to front a massive amount of cash and possibly liquidate assets—while potentially unable to access the money, because the court order could limit his ability to tap his Monopoly board of properties.

Meanwhile, Trump also faces mounting difficulty in finding surety companies and banks to guide him through the appeal, because his credibility is the very focal point of the case in question. (Trump also has a long history of stiffing banks and creditors.)

“It’s not often that there are cases like this where the person’s financial ability to pay is really in question,” said N. Alex Hanley, an expert in how companies appeal enormous judgments.

“The subject of the case is whether the values of his properties are what he says they are,” Hanley added. “He may have some trouble with that.”

Court-imposed nine-figure penalties almost universally involve the nation’s leading corporations, not an individual facing four criminal indictments that also threaten to put him in prison. Even as Trump cruises to the GOP presidential nomination, the situation could send potential lenders rushing for the exits, said Hanley, who runs the appellate surety agency Jurisco in Tallahassee, Florida.

Ironically, Trump’s position as the leading 2024 Republican candidate actually makes matters worse for him, experts said, because the way he used his four years in the White House to block civil cases make him a radioactive borrower. Trump hid behind the presidential seal and employed the Department of Justice to delay E. Jean Carroll’s rape defamation case against him for years—something that proved instructive for any potential lender now.

“Sureties require an indemnification agreement, a contract for the bond. Now a concern would be: How do you perfect an indemnity of the person that could be the next sitting president? How do you take that person to court?” asked Neil Pedersen, who runs an eponymous appellate bond agency in Manhattan.

If Trump ultimately exhausts his court appeals and definitively loses the case, no lender wants to be on the hook for hundreds of millions of dollars—and unable to knock on the borrower’s door while he’s in the Oval Office.

“These companies are pretty conservative by nature. They're not likely to get involved in something that they think will get dragged on for a long time—and potentially not get paid for it. This has never been done, so it's completely unprecedented,” Hanley said.


The miserable defense Trump’s lawyers put on at the recent three-month state trial all but guarantees he will be punished severely. Justice Arthur F. Engoron, who reviewed extensive evidence gathered by investigators, concluded before trial that Trump indeed committed bank fraud. Trump’s lead accounting expert failed to convince the judge otherwise, and recent allegations of perjury by a Trump Organization executive have only promised to worsen the situation.

Whatever the enormous judgment will be, the state-mandated 9 percent interest rate on the sum is likely to date back to the start of AG Letitia James’ investigation in 2018, which means Trump could be in the hole for nine-figures more. If the judgment against Trump is, for instance, $370 million, he would face an additional $33.3 million tacked on annually to the base amount of the original judgment. It’s simple interest, which means it only applies to the original judgment, but if the time period stretches back six years, Trump would automatically owe 54 percent more than whatever the judgment comes out to be. (In this hypothetical of $370 million with six years of interest, it’d be almost exactly $200 million more.)

If the judgment is that high, it would be financially devastating to Trump, even with buildings he claims are worth billions.

According to surety bond experts who operate in New York’s court system, that towering interest rate was set years ago during a booming economy and hasn’t come down. Although Gov. Kathy Hochul vastly reduced the money judgment interest rate on consumer debts for the first time in 40 years in 2021, experts said the nature of Trump’s bank fraud case means he wouldn’t be spared.

Then there’s the matter of Trump’s inevitable appeal. The $315 filing fee will be the least of his worries. According to New York state court rules, Trump will have only a month to front a massive appellate bond worth anywhere from 110 percent to 120 percent of the judgment. Experts who spoke to The Daily Beast said Trump has two options: pay it directly to the court system, or find a surety company that would provide the state a guarantee on his behalf.

For Trump, either situation is a nightmare.

If Trump wants to take the odd route and fly solo, Pedersen said, the former president would likely be forced to funnel his cash reserves—if he even has enough—into a single bank account and cut the New York court system a certified check. But then he’d have to pay extra fees charged by the court for handling the transaction.

“It doesn’t go smoothly when the government holds your cash. I just hear horror stories,” Pedersen said.

If Trump opts to take the more common route, he’ll have to find a willing insurance company that’s licensed to handle these kinds of legal transactions in New York—and rely on one of the few that’s able to handle this kind of gargantuan sum.

That firm wouldn’t hand over the cash. Instead, it would merely present the court with an official document that says it’s good for the money. Trump, on the other hand, would have to pay the surety company a premium of maybe 1 percent—a tiny share that under present circumstances might translate into a whopping $5 million.

However, the bigger problem comes when Trump has to prove that he’s trustworthy—in the midst of a trial that proved he’s anything but.

“Appeal bonds always have to be collateralized. He would have to put up liquid collateral in the form of cash, a letter of credit from a bank, or a pledge of non-retirement account publicly traded securities,” Pedersen said.

Then there’s the risk of associating with Trump, Hanley added.

“In a divisive case like this, lots of companies would decline to be involved in it. The death threats. The pitchforks. I’ve had that happen in many cases that aren’t nearly as high-profile,” Hanley said.

Hanley said insurance companies “on the whole” don’t accept real property as collateral, as they prefer cash or letters of credit. As such, Justice Engoron’s order might force Trump to actually scramble to sell a building or prized golf course.

But that opens another can of worms. The incoming judicial order is also expected to give the AG some of the injunctive relief she requested, potentially ripping apart the Trump Organization and seizing its assets. That could put Trump’s own buildings outside of his reach, further complicating matters.

“Is he even allowed to use his assets to secure the bond? Because the corporation could be defunct. What if the court says you have to sell everything? The court can denude him of his assets… and those assets are the very thing he'd need as collateral,” said Evans D. Prieston, a criminal defense lawyer in Long Island City who has worked closely with the bail bond industry.

In other words, Trump might not be able to rely on tainted goods to pay off the punishment for having tainted goods.

Trump also has the unfortunate timing of having his bank fraud trial shortly after a case Prieston recently lost before the state’s appellate court in Brooklyn, one in which the court asserted that judges have extensive powers to intervene between a defendant and their bond lender. That case dealt with criminal matters, but Prieston said Justice Engoron could decide this kind of authority extends to civil cases as well.

Who would help Trump then?

“Depends on his friends and how much money he has,” Prieston said. “Jared Kushner knows Saudi Arabia. Who knows what’s going to happen?”

I'd honestly not considered how his immunity stance while president (and siccing Justice on it) was going to be a barrier here but it's a worthy point: Staking Trump for his appeal is a hell of a risk when there's zero chance it's overturned but a somewhat realistic chance he's President and you can't do anything until the end of his term when he tries to stiff you.

PainterofCrap
Oct 17, 2002

hey bebe



Paracaidas posted:

https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1755250195095289959

The Daily Beast has some detail on the monetary hurdles of Trump's potential civil appeals. I recommend a bit of caution on any of the opinion or speculation in the piece, because the overall tone has the hallmarks of the gleeful "he's so screwed, share with your blue wave friends!" Meidasesque nonsense that's been flooding the market since 2016. A really brief look at the process itself, though, seems to check out with the reporting.

I'd honestly not considered how his immunity stance while president (and siccing Justice on it) was going to be a barrier here but it's a worthy point: Staking Trump for his appeal is a hell of a risk when there's zero chance it's overturned but a somewhat realistic chance he's President and you can't do anything until the end of his term when he tries to stiff you.

Wait & see if another Trumpertunity arrives! If he can't get a legitimate loan (lol no way he or the Org. has the cash) you may suddenly see another attempt to launder a huge sum of money using another NFT/card scam.

The oceans of cash he'll need? I can't see a laundering scam that could work. That's NY commercial real estate-type money, and he's done forever with that.

It amuses me to no end because there was never an question that he would appeal everything until the heat death of the universe, and his boasts of wealth are going to come a-cropper the hardest way possible.

He could drop out of the race - but that'll kill whatever grift leverage he has. That $$ tap will dwindle.
If he keeps going, he's going to hit the bankruptcy wall, and hard. And lose the Org.

VV agreed. there aren't enough gullible rubes that still have any amounts of money that would matter. If he's desperate enough though, (Mike-Pillows-level desperate), he'll try.

PainterofCrap fucked around with this message at 18:38 on Feb 7, 2024

Zwabu
Aug 7, 2006

PainterofCrap posted:

Wait & see if another Trumpertunity arrives! If he can't get a legitimate loan (lol no way he or the Org. has the cash) you may suddenly see another attempt to launder a huge sum of money using another NFT/card scam.

The NFT stuff is small potatoes at best. Even as dumb as his base is I would be shocked if he could raise more than a few to several million with each offering of these.

The Lord of Hats
Aug 22, 2010

Hello, yes! Is being very good day for posting, no?
While there is a seemingly limitless supply of people willing to line and stick their head in the face-eating leopard’s mouth, it’s not exactly surprising that a lot fewer of them are companies willing to eat a $400 million loss betting on an obviously doomed court case.

I have to imagine he doesn’t appeal and tries to turn it into a campaign trail grievance while trying to delay the actual consequences, but I don’t know how much additional mileage he’d actually get out of that, or how much he can actually stall there (given that the Trump Org is no longer under his control, right?). I’m not saying that he can’t find some way out of it, I just don’t really see what it is.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound
Prediction: he gets a loan from the Russian Central Bank

Blotto_Otter
Aug 16, 2013


Paracaidas posted:

I'd honestly not considered how his immunity stance while president (and siccing Justice on it) was going to be a barrier here but it's a worthy point: Staking Trump for his appeal is a hell of a risk when there's zero chance it's overturned but a somewhat realistic chance he's President and you can't do anything until the end of his term when he tries to stiff you.
i hadn't thought about that either, but once you start thinking about it, it just gets funnier the more you think it through and try to game it out. (for instance, there would be a very good chance that "the end of his term" would be him dying, and then you're dealing with an estate that his children have gone to war with each other to divvy up.) it's very clear that any lender or guarantor to trump would be reaching the "there be dragons" edge of the map if trump managed to win the election.

if Trump decides not to appeal the judgement, but also resists paying, how quickly would they be able to start seizing his assets? I could see him going that route if he thought he could stall until after the election, but I have no idea how quickly the state of New York could move on that

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



He could pull an Alex Jones and declare bankruptcy to buy time, but that means he'd be running for President while also publicly saying he's penniless and having minimal control over his own finances.

Maybe he spins that into more martyr poo poo, but it doesn't seem like the best pitch to me.

Uglycat
Dec 4, 2000
MORE INDISPUTABLE PROOF I AM BAD AT POSTING
---------------->
There is a ton of incriminating evidence that will be disclosed in various trials over the next year. If he declared bankruptcy, his Financials will be laid out publicly as well.

Is my thinking. I ANAL.

Dicty Bojangles
Apr 14, 2001

Xiahou Dun posted:

Maybe he spins that into more martyr poo poo, but it doesn't seem like the best pitch to me.

Spinning martyr poo poo seems to be the cornerstone to his entire existence, I’d be shocked if he doesn’t do the same every step through bankruptcy and beyond.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

Xiahou Dun posted:

He could pull an Alex Jones and declare bankruptcy to buy time, but that means he'd be running for President while also publicly saying he's penniless and having minimal control over his own finances.

Maybe he spins that into more martyr poo poo, but it doesn't seem like the best pitch to me.

I don't know that that buys him time. Appeal filing deadlines are just deadlines. I don't know that bankruptcies would extend those deadlines. They aren't debts they're filing requirements.

jarlywarly
Aug 31, 2018
Maybe this is why Carlson is in Moscow

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.



Hieronymous Alloy posted:

I don't know that that buys him time. Appeal filing deadlines are just deadlines. I don't know that bankruptcies would extend those deadlines. They aren't debts they're filing requirements.

I was responding to not having to pay Carroll, not about the filing deadlines. I don't think he can do much about the linear nature of time.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Xiahou Dun posted:

He could pull an Alex Jones and declare bankruptcy to buy time, but that means he'd be running for President while also publicly saying he's penniless and having minimal control over his own finances.

Maybe he spins that into more martyr poo poo, but it doesn't seem like the best pitch to me.

He'll spin it as both a big brain business move and martyr poo poo at the same time. He will have been hounded by the traitorous deep state into a brilliant financial move that many are saying is the most perfect bankruptcy they've ever seen.

Never forget that we as a nation just stood by and watch as he judo'd bankrupting 2 casinos into taking advantage of the stupid system with his giant business brain.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

If the US wasn't apparently really tilting towards becoming a fascist dictatorship it would be a lot more entertaining watching one side of the election continue to keep spinning plates to avoid bankruptcy/jail/consequences in a more and more frantic fashion as the plates somehow keep growing in size and moving farther apart.

DarkHorse
Dec 13, 2006

Vroom vroom, BEEP BEEP!
Nap Ghost

Xiahou Dun posted:

I was responding to not having to pay Carroll, not about the filing deadlines. I don't think he can do much about the linear nature of time.

At this point I would not be surprised to discover that Trump can somehow gently caress with causality. It would make infinitely more sense than what's actually going on

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

Xiahou Dun posted:

I was responding to not having to pay Carroll, not about the filing deadlines. I don't think he can do much about the linear nature of time.

Oh yeah. Bankruptcy is probably gonna happen after engorons ruling comes out. I expect he will say it's big brain business, yeah.

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice

DarkHorse posted:

At this point I would not be surprised to discover that Trump can somehow gently caress with causality. It would make infinitely more sense than what's actually going on

I wouldn't say he has some magical ability to gently caress with causality, he's just on the receiving end of an entire societal structure set up to reward and maintain wealth. Once you're in the club every single aspect of society that can be rebuilt or corrupted to keep you in that club, has been. You have to really gently caress things up, and then keep loving things up for years to not have it all work to maintain your status.

PainterofCrap
Oct 17, 2002

hey bebe



Tesseraction posted:

If the US wasn't apparently really tilting towards becoming a fascist dictatorship it would be a lot more entertaining watching one side of the election continue to keep spinning plates to avoid bankruptcy/jail/consequences in a more and more frantic fashion as the plates somehow keep growing in size and moving farther apart.

I am stealing this.

Youth Decay
Aug 18, 2015

https://twitter.com/AnnaBower/status/1755290689863049343

Of course Trump's own lawyers weighing in on the Fani Willis thing have to add their own dash of dickishness.

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

Youth Decay posted:

https://twitter.com/AnnaBower/status/1755290689863049343

Of course Trump's own lawyers weighing in on the Fani Willis thing have to add their own dash of dickishness.

I feel like that if Trump's team is having to go this route that there's no substance to any of the allegations thus far.

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Xiahou Dun posted:

If you think about how hosed up you’d get if a running horse hit you, it makes sense. A 2,000 lbs horse going 45 mph will ruin your rear end.

As seen in the documentary Deadwood.

I had a horse roll over me when I was 12. Luckily it was a fat soft horse and I wasn't hurt.

Note: In the late 1800's police on bikes enforced the speed limits in NYC when Teddy Roosevelt was the Police Commissioner.

Created by Police Commissioner Theodore Roosevelt in 1895 to apprehend speeding horse-drawn carriages, the 29-member bike squad, known as the “Scorcher Squad,” made 1,366 arrests in its first year.

These fast riding cyclists were “scorchers” for the way they blazed down roads, the racers were called “cracks.”

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VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Prediction: he gets a loan from the Russian Central Bank

Or the German Bank which is pretty much the same thing.

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