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Yeah I dunno, a lot of the reason Trump's speaking isn't in the news is because people who aren't on the Trump train would rather get electroshock therapy than actually listen to it. It's just stream-of-consciousness turboracism and sneering stupidity. Biden, having lost a step, was almost no one's real first choice to do much of anything but be rid of Trump.
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Feb 9, 2024 10:52
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Dire when we get to the point on discussing "who is the least senile" and its way too late to have someone else replace him.
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Feb 9, 2024 10:56
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His Divine Shadow posted:Well it's sort of blandy centrish state financed news in Finland. Sounds like they got the same reporting that was immediately posted here and repeated it because people love catastrophising about Trump Meanwhile, Barack Obama thinks there are 57 states, can’t spell « advice », and thinks austrian is a language. Everyone remembers when that torpedoed him right?
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Feb 9, 2024 11:05
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This isn't going to go away, as the election campaign ramps up he's going to be in the spotlight more and more. If only there were multiple recent cases of high profile dems dying in office from being terminally old to serve as a warning. Hard to see how this won't lead to a loss due to low voter turnout from lack of enthusiasm. 'The other guy is also senile' isn't very encouraging.
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Feb 9, 2024 11:19
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Two things worry me. For one, I think there are a lot of people who kind of think it would be fun to have Trump back and are just looking for something that will give them "permission" to vote for him.. These sorts of people don't need much permission anyway, but this is definitely the sort of thing that will do it. More importantly is media attention tends to reinforce the idea that this is something you should be paying attention to. So people who may have been willing to overlook this sort of thing will be more likely to see it as important. I've been thinking that the consensus on Biden's chances has been far too bearish. I guess I still think that, but I'm not nearly as confident. Guess we'll see how this plays out.
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Feb 9, 2024 11:41
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This won't even be remembered by March, let alone November. Every time Biden gaffes, or falls down, or whatever happened to his eye, it's THE END for maybe a week and then everyone forgets. Not to mention that unless the Supreme Court decides to give Trump immunity, the entire rest of the year is going to be wall to wall Trump Trials. There isn't enough oxygen to keep this alive even if it was actually a major thing.
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Feb 9, 2024 11:54
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Gyges posted:This won't even be remembered by March, let alone November. Every time Biden gaffes, or falls down, or whatever happened to his eye, it's THE END for maybe a week and then everyone forgets. Yeah I’m not confident at all predicting who will win but it’s been over for Biden weekly for months until the next thing happens and the old thing goes away. I’d honestly be surprised if even Genocide Biden lasts in the memories of anyone besides arab and muslim voters a month after a hypothetical ceasefire.
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Feb 9, 2024 11:59
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Celexi posted:Dire when we get to the point on discussing "who is the least senile" and its way too late to have someone else replace him. This discussion has been going on since at least 2019. "Too late" is just a convenient excuse
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Feb 9, 2024 12:39
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I don't think the point people are trying to make by pointing out Trump's gaffes is that both candidates are senile but rather that this poo poo is ignored unless it feeds into a narrative that the press has selected
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Feb 9, 2024 13:44
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sleep with the vicious posted:George w bush is 4 years younger than biden and was president 25 years ago Joe Biden's nickname back in 2008 was 'Gaffe Machine' because he made verbal mistakes like this all the time and always has. They're basically part of his brand.
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Feb 9, 2024 13:54
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Kchama posted:Joe Biden's nickname back in 2008 was 'Gaffe Machine' because he made verbal mistakes like this all the time and always has. They're basically part of his brand. Honestly probably preferable to his new, also well-earned nickname
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Feb 9, 2024 14:09
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https://x.com/BradleyWhitford/status/1755799660504211553?s=20
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Feb 9, 2024 14:10
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drat, never thought I'd live to see Bradley Whitford actually land a burn
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Feb 9, 2024 14:11
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L. Ron DeSantis posted:It's all over. This is Hillary's email server all over again. I'm inclined to agree, but Trump was likely to win again even without this.
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Feb 9, 2024 14:24
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AKA Pseudonym posted:I don't think the point people are trying to make by pointing out Trump's gaffes is that both candidates are senile but rather that this poo poo is ignored unless it feeds into a narrative that the press has selected I don't know that either are senile, but both seem to be exhibiting clear cognitive decline from where they used to be. Typical 80 year old poo poo. Which is why neither of them should be running, but we are all cursed by a hateful god. Trump does get more of a pass, but it's not just for feeding a narrative. His only ideology is Trump, and everything is stream of consciousness. Which makes it frustrating and painful to actually listen to and deconstruct his ramblings. Reading transcripts isn't much better either. So he can say insane poo poo, display a questionable cognitive level, and then it's all swimming in an ocean of nonsense. The end result is that it's hard to pull out a fully intelligible "gotcha" moment that is digestible and believable to the average person. Try listening to the full Access Hollywood thing. It's nearly mind numbing, and about the only reason grab 'em by the pussy stands out is that it's surrounded by enough silence that your brain can latch onto it. And that was from almost 20 years ago when Trump was holding a conversation. All his hits now are uninterrupted diatribes that you have to go and dig out, because all he does is run on sentences that barely follow dream logic. His particular speech patterns don't help since he loves bizarre descriptions like "move on them" or whatever insane dog comparison he throws in. Honestly his rants are like a generation or a half back AI generated scripts. Random changes and barely following the mostly loosely defined narrative. Though at least he doesn't randomly change the gender of characters he's talking about.
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Feb 9, 2024 14:30
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Koburn posted:Hard to see how this won't lead to a loss due to low voter turnout from lack of enthusiasm. 'The other guy is also senile' isn't very encouraging. Why would there be a lack of enthusiasm? You're underestimating how much people actually hate Trump. Democrats have been winning big for years now, including last year, and to think that they vote for the Democrat in their local elections because they're concerned about abortion rights and democracy but won't do it for Joe Biden because he's old or even senile doesn't make a lot of sense. Biden did too much good poo poo to enumerate here. Democrats have been very enthusiastic since Trump was elected. This is not to say that Biden's issues don't matter or that the perception that Biden is demented is not a negative. It's just that everything is so, so much worse for Trump. Trump is guilty of sexual abuse, will have to put up hundreds of millions while he fruitlessly fights his guilty verdicts (which means liquidating buildings? he doesn't have cash like that). There will be nonstop coverage of the numerous Trump trials of the man wanting to become POTUS. Trump will continue to melt down over E Jean Carroll and remind voters that he's a guilty rapist. The GOP raised as much cash last year as Democrats raised last quarter (some of which that will have to cover Trump's many legal bills). Don't tell me there's enthusiasm for Trump or there isn't any for Biden.
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Feb 9, 2024 14:32
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A low turnout election probably favors Biden, because more people despise Trump than worship him. The problem comes when it goes above that, and the next trench of voters are more likely to be made up of people who could vote either way and their choice is made off what today's gas price is or whose turn it should be. Which makes average level turnout Trump's best shot. High turnout seems unlikely given this is a cursed rematch, but probably favors Biden because everyone left absolutely loving hates having to hear about politics and that's all they'll get if Trump is reelected.
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Feb 9, 2024 14:41
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There is significant evidence in polling that Biden’s age is a problem for him, and on top of that, people are pissed at inflation and despite it subsiding, Biden is getting zero credit for it
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Feb 9, 2024 14:41
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FlamingLiberal posted:There is significant evidence in polling that Biden’s age is a problem for him, and on top of that, people are pissed at inflation and despite it subsiding, Biden is getting zero credit for it Inflation was at its peak and most shocking while the stock market hit its low in October 2022 and eggs were gold nuggets. A month later, Republicans barely won the House and Democrats made gains everywhere else. You mean to tell me that after two years of inflation subsiding, new market highs, and Trump getting the book thrown at him, Republicans are more likely to prevail this time? I'm sorry, but the trend is clear: electoral catastrophe for the Republicans since Trump's first election.
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Feb 9, 2024 14:50
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Gyges posted:I don't know that either are senile, but both seem to be exhibiting clear cognitive decline from where they used to be. Typical 80 year old poo poo. Which is why neither of them should be running, but we are all cursed by a hateful god. I'm extrapolating from Brazilian politics here, which I have had a closer look into from my time as a journo. Both campaigning and being in office are grueling things. Traveling several times a week, eating takeout food on the go or greasy local treats in events (I saw the 2006 presidential challenger almost kill his campaign because he had a truck stop fried nightmare for a photo op and was half dead for 2 weeks). Giving the same speech 40 times, shaking hundreds of hands, going from one meeting to the other, etc. The way a lot of them (nearly all in my anecdotal experience) manage that when they start tobage is drugs. Mild uppers when you have to be out for a while and can't be seen flagging, downers to wind down and sleep when out of the spotlight. Even younger pols were heavy into it by the time I stepped out. Of course, people handle that chemical rollercoaster differently. Some take to it with little to no trouble. Others get 'gaps' in which they are caught being either mumbly-drunk or confused-hyped in public. Having a person in your entourage whose job is to manage your medical throttle and brake is a common thing. Of course, even those with the best constitution for it can start to slip with time and age. It's speculation on my part, but I do see signs of that for both Trump and Biden. The long-ish absences and limited contact with real press, going off on tangents or blurting strings of nonsense, outburts, etc. It could be just old-cootism, or old coot being aggravated by chems.
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Feb 9, 2024 14:52
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Boy I wish I was half as confident as posters in this thread that this election was in the bag, and not for Trump. Do you guys watch the nightly news at all? The national ones? Every single night it's pieces from people in swing states, talking about how "the economy is bad, and I think maybe Trump would be better on this as president". Completely neglecting how Trump already WAS president, and very recently. You don't have to guess, you can just look at history! But America has nothing but goldfish brains so I think it's a lot less a sure thing for Biden than "look at how the past couple midterms went". Tatsuta Age fucked around with this message at 14:55 on Feb 9, 2024 |
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Feb 9, 2024 14:53
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If Dems win, I’m comfortable giving credit to Dobbs, which is not a credit to their political abilities. If they win because of Dobbs, that’s still just entirely living within the political framework that the GOP determines. Relying on voter disgust at the other party because you cannot deliver a set of policy and messaging that appeals on its own is an indictment of the party. And if they win in that context, do you think they’d be smart enough to realize that it’s loving up the relationship with the base that you aren’t even worth voting for, it’s just that the other guy is so repulsive you won anyway? When is the party going to be expected to get a job and support itself, rather than coasting in the terminal fart cloud of GOP overreach?
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Feb 9, 2024 14:55
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Can 2024 election talk get spun off into its own thread? It's probably close enough and it's definitely getting talked about enough these last...however many pages.
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Feb 9, 2024 14:55
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Tatsuta Age posted:Boy I wish I was half as confident as posters in this thread that this election was in the bag, and not for Trump. The news has hyperfocused on white
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Feb 9, 2024 14:59
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Tatsuta Age posted:Boy I wish I was half as confident as posters in this thread that this election was in the bag, and not for Trump. I don't think anyone thinks it's in the bag. However as of right now, and looking forward to known events coming in the future, it looks Biden is favored to win in November. Trump could totally still win, because our system is stupid and large portions of our population are stupid/hateful. You should worry about the possibility of him winning, but there's no need to negatively obsess or go full doomer over it at this point.
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Feb 9, 2024 15:07
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You could always volunteer to canvas or make a donation if you're really getting anxious. It helps me.
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Feb 9, 2024 15:10
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Tatsuta Age posted:Boy I wish I was half as confident as posters in this thread that this election was in the bag, and not for Trump. The Dems hold every popular policy advantage and got the ephemeral Soft Landing that not a lot of people expected was possible, and their opponents are in catastrophic disarray that's so bad it's making a lot of them just quit and go home to not have to deal with their political peers, and their dysfunction increases on a monthly level. Which means it's the Dems' election to lose, but they are all time world champions at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory
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Feb 9, 2024 15:11
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People noting that Trump makes as many or worse confusing statements and slip-ups are correct, but it is also kind of besides the point. Not everything is treated equally in the narrative and Biden being old is part of his narrative (even though Trump is basically the same age, it's not part of his) so that hits harder to the media because it confirms the narrative. In 2000, the narrative was that Al Gore was a massive liar and robotic nerdy elitist who didn't know the life of the common man. George W. Bush was a folksy everyman who was pretty dumb and maybe in over his head. That is why even though George W. Bush lied a lot more during the campaign than Gore, Al Gore's "I invented the internet" thing stuck and was such a huge confirmation of the narrative. He never even actually said those words either. He said he was responsible for fighting to fund ARPANET, which would later become the internet. Gore also got tagged as having no military experience because he "only" volunteered to go to Vietnam as a war reporter, even though Bush was just in the Texas National Guard and eventually went AWOL. Bush also got somewhat unfairly dinged for certain slip-ups too. Everyone makes them, but nobody cared about Gore's because he was a robotic nerd in the narrative, so it was just a slip of the tongue or his terrible public speaking. Anytime Bush did something similar, it was confirmation of how incredibly stupid he was. So you're not wrong to point out Trump is often way worse, but that also doesn't mean much when something supports an existing narrative. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 15:21 on Feb 9, 2024 |
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Feb 9, 2024 15:17
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IT BURNS posted:I'm inclined to agree, but Trump was likely to win again even without this. Was he? Even with this? I mean, the polling we have been shown that seems to get everyone terrified is that Biden is mildly behind Trump despite being the so-called 'most unpopular president in history' which doesn't seem to be bode very well for Trump, or even Haley. If they can barely muster a lead at the time that an incumbent president is at their typical lowest popularity, then what are they going to do when campaigning actually starts and people are certain it is Trump versus Biden?
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Feb 9, 2024 15:18
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I mean look at what happened in 2016- the media treated Trump as a successful businessman outsider and just ignored or handwaved all of the explicit racism and dogwhistling towards the absolute worst people in America. Hillary made a handful of gaffes and they were treated as disasters.
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Feb 9, 2024 15:20
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Tatsuta Age posted:Do you guys watch the nightly news at all? The national ones? Every single night it's pieces from people in swing states, talking about how "the economy is bad, and I think maybe Trump would be better on this as president". Yes, I do, especially around October 2022. Nonstop recession news, stock market lows, people complaining about egg prices, highest inflation of my lifetime, migrant marauders apparently going around killing people, just nonstop misery both real and imagined, and Republicans lost the election the month after. It was supposed to be an easy win. It wasn't any better for them last year. Edit: Kchama posted:Was he? Even with this? I mean, the polling we have been shown that seems to get everyone terrified is that Biden is mildly behind Trump despite being the so-called 'most unpopular president in history' which doesn't seem to be bode very well for Trump, or even Haley. If they can barely muster a lead at the time that an incumbent president is at their typical lowest popularity, then what are they going to do when campaigning actually starts and people are certain it is Trump versus Biden? We should also note that it's not just Biden who's a little behind vs Trump in the polls. The Fox News poll from November had ALL Democrats losing to Trump, including Newsom, with Manchin coming closest but still 2 points behind. Look, if you want to believe this, be my guest, but these polls are not showing reality, and people who use the polls to poo poo on Biden as a candidate have to admit that the polls are apparently showing a Democrat problem and not a Biden problem. (Which is absurd.) Edit 2: S&P just hit 5000. 😎 small butter fucked around with this message at 15:35 on Feb 9, 2024 |
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Feb 9, 2024 15:29
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Kchama posted:Was he? Even with this? I mean, the polling we have been shown that seems to get everyone terrified is that Biden is mildly behind Trump despite being the so-called 'most unpopular president in history' which doesn't seem to be bode very well for Trump, or even Haley. If they can barely muster a lead at the time that an incumbent president is at their typical lowest popularity, then what are they going to do when campaigning actually starts and people are certain it is Trump versus Biden? It would be helpful for you to look at this from the opposite direction: Biden won narrowly in 2020 despite the massive and unprecedented election boost of hanging COVID on Donald Trump. Over the past 3+ years, many of Trump's weaknesses have been dulled due to Biden being weak/vulnerable/guilty in the same areas: family corruption, mental weakness, improper actions with classified documents, being hostile with the press, bloodthirsty Middle East policy, inflation, voters' feelings on the economy, age and ability to handle the job, etc. Additionally, the national polling shows a small but reliable advantage for Trump. The election environment as of right now is *clearly* more favorable for Trump than it was in 2020. You'd have to be naive or in denial to look at the landscape and not conclude that things look very fertile for a Trump victory in November. While it is still early with a lot of time before November, the cake is in the metaphorical oven and there are only a few minutes left on the timer.
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Feb 9, 2024 15:39
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FistEnergy posted:It would be helpful for you to look at this from the opposite direction: Dobbs is far worse for Republicans than COVID ever was, and this has been reflected in every election since 2022.
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Feb 9, 2024 15:50
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FistEnergy posted:It would be helpful for you to look at this from the opposite direction: You can also make these same arguments when using hindsight for 2016 as well. For your first point, Trump won about as narrowly in 2016 as Biden did in 2020. For your point about polling, Clinton was clearly ahead in polling vs Trump the entire time and still loss. So I don't think you can conclude that Trump has a clear advantage from this either. Especially since we're looking at polling before the conventions have even occurred.
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Feb 9, 2024 15:51
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FistEnergy posted:It would be helpful for you to look at this from the opposite direction: 1. Trump won the counties that COVID was hitting the hardest. You can make the argument that reasonable people were mad about Trump's handling of COVID but Trump's voters were mad that COVID was being taken too seriously. 2. Trump's weaknesses haven't been dulled considering that this is the first time that the criminal that everyone called as such is finally facing justice with 91 felony charges. If anything, people are reminded what kind of POS this convicted rapist is. 3. The polling advantage is quite literally a coin flip at this point. Wait until the summer for reliable polling. 4. I think that given Republicans' routs since 2017, Trump losing in 2020, Republicans losing last year and getting swung on +11, and Trump literally facing four criminal trials while waiting for his businesses to get liquidated is the real denial about Trump's chances here.
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Feb 9, 2024 15:53
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FistEnergy posted:It would be helpful for you to look at this from the opposite direction: So why isn't Trump ahead by more, then? I'm not going to pretend it'll be easy, but it's not going to be easy for Trump either. Also, 74 EV and 4.5% popular vote difference isn't that much worse than Obama's victories vs McCain (192 EV, but only 7.2%) and Romney (126 EV, 3.9% pop), and Biden got the most votes in history. By your argument Trump should be cruising to an obvious victory, not struggling against the so-called most unpopular president in history.
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Feb 9, 2024 15:54
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Tatsuta Age posted:Boy I wish I was half as confident as posters in this thread that this election was in the bag, and not for Trump. Well they're going on actual real life recent election results, in swing states, and you're going on vibes. quote:Completely neglecting how Trump already WAS president, and very recently. You don't have to guess, you can just look at history! But America has nothing but goldfish brains so I think it's a lot less a sure thing for Biden than "look at how the past couple midterms went". You seem to be neglecting that Biden already was president, right now, having defeated Trump. Xombie fucked around with this message at 16:15 on Feb 9, 2024 |
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Feb 9, 2024 16:03
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I know it's a fool's errand to gaze into the abyssal mind of the average Trump voter but I'm failing to imagine him growing his voter base further. Granted, he did so from '16 to '20 but I see that as a high watermark that he could, at best achieve a second time. In terms of the election becoming a disaster it seems more plausible to me that Biden simply loses voters to apathy. But for the life of me I can't imagine someone not voting for him in '20 and warming up to the idea in '24.
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Feb 9, 2024 16:11
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FistEnergy posted:Over the past 3+ years, many of Trump's weaknesses have been dulled due to Biden being weak/vulnerable/guilty in the same areas: family corruption, mental weakness, improper actions with classified documents, being hostile with the press, bloodthirsty Middle East policy, inflation, voters' feelings on the economy, age and ability to handle the job, etc. None of these are Trump's important weaknesses in a general election. Those are that he got abortion banned and did January 6. He is going to be bragging about both of those during the campaign and on very high profile trial for one.
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Feb 9, 2024 16:12
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Xombie posted:Well they're going on actual real life election results, in swing states, and you're going on vibes. I’m always keeping the post-2016 election results in my mind. That right there should be proof enough. But the vibes can be overwhelming. I’m taking my mom to the dentist and all I’ve heard is “Biden is so feeble! Do you see the way he walks! Just like my mom when she had dementia! The report said he didn’t even know what year it was! Makes you wonder who’s really running this country! It’s someone we didn’t even elect!” It sucks because I know there are more people like her who have been mainlining Fox News 24/7. It’s loving depressing.
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Feb 9, 2024 16:14
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