The US will lose WW3

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > The US will lose WW3

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Jesus Horse: Feb 24, 2004

SixteenShells posted:

a scorpion riding a scorpion's back

# ? Feb 10, 2024 03:13

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 26, 2024 15:14

mycomancy: Oct 16, 2016

Ya know, an infinite regression of scorpions on the backs of scorpions is a decent model of the current Western world economy.

# ? Feb 10, 2024 05:28

BearsBearsBears: Aug 4, 2022

"But now we shall both surely perish!". said Germany.
"lol" said the US, "lmao".

# ? Feb 10, 2024 06:07

hubris.height: Jan 6, 2005; Pork Pro

SixteenShells posted:

a scorpion riding a scorpion's back

# ? Feb 10, 2024 07:06

Palladium: May 8, 2012; Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️

nod propaganda smdh

# ? Feb 10, 2024 07:18

genericnick: Dec 26, 2012

SixteenShells posted:

a scorpion riding a scorpion's back

# ? Feb 10, 2024 13:11

Votskomit: Jun 26, 2013

https://mg.co.za/politics/2024-02-1...vated-icj-case/

mail and guardian posted:

BREAKING: US congress receives bill to review SA relations following ‘politically motivated’ ICJ case

A bill has been submitted to the United States congress calling for a full review of the country’s bilateral relationship with South Africa following the International Court of Justice ruling that found it plausible that Israel has committed acts of genocide against Gaza.

The bipartisan bill which was introduced by US Republican congressman John James and Democratic Party congressman Jared Moskowitz this week could threaten South Africa’s prospects to benefit from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

The bill will still need to be discussed and passed by congress.

It states that not later than 30 days after the date of enactment of this Act, US President Joe Biden in consultation with the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense, shall certify to the appropriate congressional committees and release publicly an unclassified determination explicitly stating whether South Africa has engaged in activities that undermine United States national security or foreign policy interests.

It further states that the US government must provide an unclassified report submitted to the appropriate congressional committees justifying the determination upon its certificate.

US Embassy mission spokesperson David Feldmann declined to comment. The ANC and the government’s response will be added when received.

The bill accuses the ANC of acting inconsistent with its publicly stated policy of nonalignment in international affairs.

It states that the South African Government has a history of siding with malign actors, including Hamas and the Russian Federation.

The US congress bill argues that the South African government’s support of Hamas dates back to 1994, when the ANC first came into power, taking a hardline stance of consistently accusing Israel of practising apartheid.

The ANC and the South African government have however been known to have ties with the Palestine Liberation Organisation dating back to former president Nelson Mandela’s term in office.

“Following Hamas’ unprovoked and unprecedented horrendous attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, where Hamas terrorists killed and kidnapped hundreds of Israelis, members of the South African Government and leaders of the ANC have delivered a variety of anti-semitic and anti-Israel-related statements and actions,” it reads.

The US congress states that some of the anti-semitic remarks include President Cyril Ramaphosa’s statements accusing Israel of genocide.

It said that the anti-semitic statements also include International Relations and Cooperations Minister Naledi Pandor’s statement expressing concern about escalating violence, urging Israel’s restraint in response.

It adds that Pandor implicitly blamed Israel for provoking the attack through “continued illegal occupation of Palestine land, continued settlement expansion, desecration of the Al Aqsa Mosque and Christian holy sites, and ongoing oppression of the Palestinian people.

It accused the ANC national spokesperson Mahlengi Bhengu-Motsiri of anti-semitic remarks after stating that the decision by Palestinians to respond to the brutality of the settler Israeli apartheid regime is unsurprising.

“On December 29, 2023, South Africa filed a politically motivated suit in the International Court of Justice wrongfully accusing Israel of committing genocide. The South African Government has pursued increasingly close relations with the Russian Federation, which has been accused of perpetrating war crimes in Ukraine and indiscriminately undermines human rights. South Africa’s robust relationship with Russia spans the military and political space, including allowing a United States-sanctioned Russian cargo ship, the Lady R, to dock and transfer arms at a South African naval base in December 2022,” the bill stated.

It also cites that South Africa dispatched multiple high-level official delegations to Russia to further political, intelligence, and military cooperation.

The congress bill states that South Africa and the ANC’s relationship with the Chinese government and its ruling Chinese Communist Party(CCP) – which is committing gross violations of human rights in the Xinjiang province and implementing economically coercive tactics around the globe – undermine South Africa’s democratic constitutional system of governance.

These acts include what it says are ongoing ANC and CCP inter-party cooperation; recruitment of former United States and NATO fighter pilots to train Chinese People’s Liberation Army pilots at the Test Flying Academy of South Africa; South Africa’s hosting of 6 Chinese government-backed and CCP-linked Confucius Institutes; South Africa’s participation in a political training school in Tanzania funded by the Chinese Communist Party, cooperation with the Chinese global Belt and Road Initiative; and the widespread presence in South Africa’s media and technology sectors of PRC state linked firms.

“The ANC-led South African Government has a history of substantially mismanaging a range of state resources and has often proven incapable of effectively delivering public services, threatening the South African people and the South African economy,” the bill stated.

The bill accuses Ramaphosa of having declared the national state of disaster over the worsening energy crisis, “the worsening, multi-year power crisis caused by the ANC’s chronic mismanagement of the state owned power company Eskom, resulting from endemic, high-level corruption”.

It states that the persistence of Transnet’s insufficient capacity, an on-going outbreak of cholera, a failure to provide clean water to households and rampant state capture are part of ANC governments mismanagement of the state.

USA continues to sabotage relations with countries. Incredible.

Votskomit has issued a correction as of 16:47 on Feb 11, 2024

# ? Feb 11, 2024 16:37

The Voice of Labor: Apr 8, 2020

one nation under aipac

# ? Feb 11, 2024 18:33

Cerebral Bore: Apr 21, 2010; Fun Shoe

just lmao @ the complete inability of the us ruling classes to conduct even the most basic-rear end diplomacy

# ? Feb 11, 2024 18:40

Frosted Flake: Sep 13, 2011; Semper Shitpost Ubique

Cerebral Bore posted:

just lmao @ the complete inability of the us ruling classes to conduct even the most basic-rear end diplomacy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vp--AlWBrU

# ? Feb 11, 2024 18:43

Complications: Jun 19, 2014

Cerebral Bore posted:

just lmao @ the complete inability of the us ruling classes to conduct even the most basic-rear end diplomacy

it's astounding just how easy china's diplomats have it

align with china and give them resources, they�ll build infrastructure for you and presumably run some interference with the cia, don't align with china and they'll just sit back and not help

align with the us and give them resources and the cia will refrain from couping you unless they think one of your subordinates will be more subservient - except if they feel like it, or if you say anything about your people mattering more than quarterly profits

# ? Feb 11, 2024 18:53

Regarde Aduck: Oct 19, 2012; c l o u d k i t t e n; Grimey Drawer

Frosted Flake posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vp--AlWBrU

typical Stokie

# ? Feb 11, 2024 18:56

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

https://mwi.westpoint.edu/ending-the-churn-to-solve-the-recruiting-crisis-the-army-should-be-asking-very-different-questions/

quote:

A Divisional System Will Increase Commitment to Long-Term Service

To transition to a long-term service model, the Army must move away from the personnel system codified in the 1940s that turned people into interchangeable cogs. The first step to increase commitment for a long-term service model would be to transition to a divisional system of assignment similar to the regimental system used by Commonwealth armies today.

While the US Army used a decentralized regimental system in the nineteenth century, the Army weakened it between the Spanish-American War and World War II. To rapidly create a mass Army, the service followed the path of many twentieth-century bureaucracies. James C. Scott explained in Seeing Like a State that modern bureaucracies sought to rationalize society through centralized, scientific management approaches. In their drive for efficiency, these approaches dehumanized populations, created inflexibility, and were often brutally ineffective.

During World War II, in a change from previous wars, American replacements traveled to combat theaters as individuals to efficiently replenish units. As they deployed, unsure of what unit they would join, soldiers complained they of being �herded like sheep� or �handled like so many sticks of wood.� After weeks of travel, they �wanted most of all to be identified with a unit.� Medical officers blamed the replacement system for psychological damage that led to high rates of psychiatric casualties before soldiers even reached the front. For a time, the Army discharged more men for psychiatric reasons then it received as replacements, leading General George Marshall to set up an investigation into the psychiatric crisis. Observing the crisis, Brigadier General Thomas Christian, commander of the Field Artillery School at Camp Roberts, recommended to the War Department G1 a transition to training and shipping out whole batteries and battalions to create cohesive units. The G1 replied to him that the Army would maintain the individual replacement system for administrative efficiency to meet its growing needs.

This practice of centrally assigning individuals continued after World War II with all its associated problems on morale and cohesion. The founder of sociology as an academic discipline, �mile Durkheim, argued that the increase in suicide in modern society was due to anomie�people becoming unmoored from their place in their community. After World War II, the Army emplaced a system of mandated moves every couple of years to ensure efficient manning. This system is a policy of enforced anomie. It is a probable cause for why, since 2011, even with investments into behavioral health services and the termination of combat operations, the Army�s suicide rate continues to increase. In seeking bureaucratic efficiency over putting people first, the Army breaks soldiers� bonds of commitment to a �band of brothers� and breeds disenchantment.

The British and Canadian Armies still cultivate cohesion and commitment through their regimental systems�cohesion that eradicates anomie. Both armies also have lower suicide rates than the US Army. Over the last couple of decades, annual suicide rates per one hundred thousand soldiers were five in the Canadian Army, nine in the British Army, and twenty-eight in the US Army.

The cohesion of a regimental system also contributes to a greater dedication to long-term service. In 2022, 9 percent of the Canadian Armed Forces, 11 percent of the British Army, and 15 percent of the US Army separated from service. If the US Army had the retention rates of militaries with regimental systems, it would not face a recruiting crisis. With Canada�s retention rate, the US Army could maintain its current size with just 40,680 recruits a year.

In addition to increased commitment, cohesive armies are also more effective. Cohesion builds trust and initiative. When leaders know they will rely on the same subordinates for years, they will mentor them and invest in their development. Units that are together for years make long-term improvements to their systems and standard operating procedures. The bonds that soldiers develop over years of service build morale and create shared mental frameworks for their actions on the battlefield.

Before World War I, the French Army believed strongly in Ardant du Picq�s Etudes sur le combat, in which he stated that �Four brave men who do not know each other will not dare to attack a lion. Four less brave, but knowing each other well, sure of their reliability and consequently of mutual aid, will attack resolutely.� With such an understanding of the value of cohesion, their army fought bravely in World War I.

But in the 1930s, the French Army prioritized mass mobilization and firepower over cohesion in their doctrine of methodical battle, which took a scientific approach to war and treated their soldiers like interchangeable parts. In 1940, when French soldiers met the Germans at the decisive Battle of Sedan, they broke. The French commanders at the point of rupture blamed their men�s lack of will to fight on their lack of cohesion. On the other hand, German land forces had prioritized cohesion over bureaucratic efficiency. German recruits joined a specific regiment, attended basic training led by NCOs from that unit, and marched to the front to join their unit in company-sized elements. Due to their cohesion, they fought with initiative and courage.

A divisional system would also benefit the home front. It would allow families to stabilize and spouses to pursue careers. The Army will find it increasingly difficult to recruit and retain talented individuals whose similarly talented partners might naturally be unwilling to sacrifice their career for the Army. The antiquated assumption of the dutiful wife that follows her husband around is simply unreasonable and out of touch with today�s reality. This is not least because today�s Army has a mix of men and women in its ranks, unlike its World War II predecessor. Still, a little over 90 percent of Army spouses are women, and their experiences are indicative of a problem. Compared to the time of the AVF�s implementation, women have higher expectations for career fulfillment. In the 1960s, only 4 percent of women made the same or more than their husbands. Now, almost half do. A Department of Labor survey of military spouses showed that only 53 percent of Army wives participated in the labor market, many working transitory jobs on Army posts. They had three times the unemployment rate of women in the general population. In a 2021 Department of Defense survey, 48.3 percent of soldiers reported that the �impact of Army life on significant other�s career plans and goals� was an important reason to leave the Army, the second-highest reason soldiers consider leaving.

Decentralizing the Personnel System

Adopting a divisional system would allow the Army to implement the type of decentralized, flexible personnel system already used in the private sector and with Department of the Army civilians. Divisions could also be responsible for filling positions such as drill sergeants and recruiters, which would imbue them with a shared responsibility for ensuring competent soldiers arrived at their units. They would know that they would eventually go back to their divisions and serve with those new soldiers. Rather than relying on centralized decisions from Human Resources Command, divisions could fill vacancies by promoting from within or directly hiring from without. Without soldiers� careers having to be easily legible for the centralized bureaucracy to make decisions, divisions could allow soldiers to follow flexible career paths.

Before World War II, soldiers could pursue diverse, flexible careers, driven by personal interactions. They had latitude to drive their own career paths. This latitude produced an officer corps that saw their profession as a calling. This corresponded to sociologist Max Weber�s ideal of a profession. He argued that �Unless we [as professionals] are working toward something specific, our actions aren�t anchored in any purpose of meaning.� Professionals obtain purpose through long-term commitment to solving a specific problem and by contributing to a professional body of knowledge.

Before World War II, flexible career paths in the US Army produced professional commitment and effectiveness. Janowitz identified that among the Army�s senior leaders during World War II, only 20 percent had followed a traditional career path, while 72.5 percent had followed an �adaptive� career path. As an example of the flexible career model existing before the war, Matthew Ridgeway taught Spanish at West Point for six years. Instead of traditional staff and command roles, he served most of the interwar years in Latin America and in the General Staff�s War Plans Division. His unconventional career produced an innovative and strategic mind, which Marshall recognized provided Ridgeway with enormous potential. He excelled as the commander of the 82nd Airborne Division without having done key developmental time at lower echelons. Before World War II, such diverse career paths were the norm for senior leaders, which created a diversity of thought at the top of the Army. Now such career paths are impossible.

To enable such career paths before World War II, officers like Ridgeway could go a decade without a promotion; there was no up-or-out system forcing soldiers out of service if they were not promoted on a rigid timeline. True professions do not use such counterproductive systems. Doctors are not forced out if they do not become hospital administrators. Professors do not lose tenure if they do not become department heads.

In a 1977 study of the AVF, RAND blamed the military�s attachment to the up-or-out system for preventing the transition to a long-term service model as the Gates Commission expected. During the draft era, the military tied experience to supervisory positions. It valued maintaining a pyramid rank structure required for managing draftees over developing experienced technicians.

The Army should allow soldiers to spend years becoming experts at a task. Imagine how effective a tank crew would be if they had trained together for five years or an advisor would be if he or she had worked with members of the same partner force for a decade, spoke their language, and knew their systems. By allowing such diverse careers before the 1940s, the Army produced effective leaders who were committed to their profession instead of careerists focused on efficiently moving through key developmental assignments.

End Corrosive Competitive Evaluations

By decentralizing the personnel system, the Army could eliminate corrosive competitive evaluations. The Army forces soldiers to compete against each other for their evaluations, a system that erodes professionalism and cohesion. In 1947 with DA Form 67-1, the Army implemented an evaluation system based in scientific management that forced evaluators to rank their subordinates against their peers. The Army desired a solution for centralized boards to reduce the number of senior officers as it cut down from its World War II size. This moved the service away from valuing an officer as a whole person. It eventually made NCO evaluations competitive as well. Before then, evaluations were qualitative. The Army diluted the competitive evaluation system in the 1980s and 1990s, but then sought to reinforce it as it cut down again in the mid-1990s. The strict box-checking system introduced in 2000 with DA Form 67-9 and quantitative numerations are the descendants of this scientific system to make the jobs of centralized promotion boards easier at the cost of fully appraising a soldier as a person.

Competitive evaluations are a discredited management practice. As The Economist reported, �Study after study suggests that they hurt overall performance, not least by lowering productivity. . . . Competitive ranking seems not just to reduce co-operation and foster selfishness but also to discourage risk-taking.� Groups that use them are less productive, have lower satisfaction, and exhibit increased status-seeking, careerist behaviors. The Army adopted them at the same time as American businesses in the post�World War II heyday of scientific management. But since then, General Electric, Amazon, Microsoft, and nearly all businesses that tried competitive evaluation systems have abandoned them due to their corrosive effects.

The Army needs to eliminate such practices. Competitive rankings facilitate centralized promotion boards but would not be needed if the Army used decentralized promotions managed within a divisional system. Divisions could do real talent management. Sitting on a divisional promotion board, decision-makers would know promotion candidates as individuals and not need to rely on numerical rankings.

The pressure of competitive ranking produces a workaholic culture that results in pervasive cynicism reflected across popular Army social media meme accounts. It is a work environment that drives people away. Before World War II, Army life was leisurely. It was a main draw and source of retention. The typical officer�s workday ended by noon. Officers averaged thirty hours of work a week. Such a schedule granted time for professional reading, writing, and mentoring. While the Army may not return to such a schedule, it should recognize that often the long hours that soldiers work are not to build true fighting capabilities but rather for theatrical displays of labor to outshine competing officers for that crucial �most qualified� evaluation rating.

The modern, high-pressure, careerist environment has not only undermined quality of life, but also degraded professional competence. Both Samuel Huntington and Janowitz praised the Army�s pre�World War II professional environment but worried about its postwar decline. Since the centralized personnel system was codified after the war, the Army has had a poor record in winning wars, it has shown little interest in learning from its defeats, and it has hazy thinking on how to fight future wars. By contrast, the old professional environment produced an Army that thought, invested in its soldiers, and won wars.

A Good Product Sells Itself

I do not propose a complete return to the pre�World War II personnel system, but a system inspired by its increased flexibility and commitment to long-term service. During the interwar years, the Army did not have decentralized promotions. It relied on centralized, time-in-service promotions that General Dwight Eisenhower testified to Congress were �unsatisfactory� and meant that �short of almost crime being committed by an officer, there were ineffectual ways of eliminating a man.� A decentralized system would not rely on time in service, up or out, or competitive evaluations.

Unfortunately, the Army continues to centralize decision-making with a drive for data-centric talent management, the latest buzzword offspring from the mid-twentieth-century�s scientific management. The Army needs to recognize that soldiers will not want to stay in an Army that treats them either as cogs in a machine or numbers on a spreadsheet.

The Army can take inspiration from its past to solve its manning crisis by returning to a professional, long-term service model. Such an Army would be more effective. It would reduce the amount of resources and soldiers committed to recruiting and basic training. It would have more committed soldiers and cohesive units that were not stuck in a Sisyphean cycle of retraining new arrivals. It would not have to recruit as many soldiers from a peacetime society with strong alternative opportunities to Army service. The Army must ask why it needs to churn through so many recruits. And, it needs to learn a good product sells itself. An Army that soldiers want to stay in will be an Army that society wants to join.

There really does seem to be basically zero appetite for addressing any material concerns like starvation or moldy bases or that those may be a big impact on recruitment despite the acknowledgement earlier that the army relies on poor people for recruits.

# ? Feb 11, 2024 20:02

NeonPunk: Dec 21, 2020

Didn't read past their rationale for increased suicide in the army was because the soldiers didn't felt camaraderie with their fellow soldiers. Not even a word about, you know, the whole exploding and killing people and dying.

# ? Feb 11, 2024 20:14

Frosted Flake: Sep 13, 2011; Semper Shitpost Ubique

Danann posted:

https://mwi.westpoint.edu/ending-the-churn-to-solve-the-recruiting-crisis-the-army-should-be-asking-very-different-questions/

The first step to increase commitment for a long-term service model would be to transition to a divisional system of assignment similar to the regimental system used by Commonwealth armies today. 😈

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5aSlVj3Ob3w

# ? Feb 11, 2024 20:33

bagual: Oct 29, 2010; _{_{inconspicuous}}

Lol grasping at sociology 101 with Weber and Durkheim and conspicuously not even mentioning the forbidden third classic

Systematic sidelining underfunding and delegitimizing social science for decades only to be left with baby level analysis when faced with real and urgent social problems. Many such cases!

# ? Feb 11, 2024 20:43

Real hurthling!: Sep 11, 2001

i feel like they could just fire mckinsey consultants, give every soldier a raise to 80-100k after 5 years and a 50-60% pension after 20 and not have so many recruit problems but im not an expert in motivation so sure why not try something dumb instead

# ? Feb 11, 2024 21:27

HouseofSuren: Feb 5, 2024; by Pragmatica

Complications posted:

it's astounding just how easy china's diplomats have it

align with china and give them resources, they�ll build infrastructure for you and presumably run some interference with the cia, don't align with china and they'll just sit back and not help

align with the us and give them resources and the cia will refrain from couping you unless they think one of your subordinates will be more subservient - except if they feel like it, or if you say anything about your people mattering more than quarterly profits

This.

Look at Haiti/Cuba.

Mali and West Africa.

Likewise, Erdogan's coup.

And this

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...lly/ar-BB1i770M

The US controlled Turkey's military then the coup occurred, and still controls Pakistan's and Egypt's. I'm sure this is a combined effort of the west/Arabian (UAE/Saudi) dictators to buy elites to shake votes down as well to control Pakistan.

As someone who's familiar with Eurasian history this bears a strong resemblance to those Eurasian invasions, you might think that's a gigantic leap in logic, I sure don't. There's a lot more people there and they are probably going to charge us like a bull in the next decades.

HouseofSuren has issued a correction as of 22:04 on Feb 11, 2024

# ? Feb 11, 2024 21:59

GlassEye-Boy: Jul 12, 2001

happy Chinese new years! Chinese IED game strong now that fireworks bane has been temporarily lifted.

https://x.com/olalatech1/status/1756301223672545609?s=20

# ? Feb 11, 2024 22:03

The Voice of Labor: Apr 8, 2020

GlassEye-Boy posted:

happy Chinese new years! Chinese IED game strong now that fireworks bane has been temporarily lifted.

https://x.com/olalatech1/status/1756301223672545609?s=20

well I guess if someone has to exploit africa and plunder all its mineral wealth it's better that those minerals go towards making fireworks that make people happy than going towards bombs that genocide innocents

# ? Feb 11, 2024 22:12

tatankatonk: Nov 4, 2011; Pitching is the art of instilling fear.

an Up or Out personnel policy really is loving crazy for an officer corps, especially one that's having a hard time meeting its recruiting numbers

# ? Feb 11, 2024 22:30

RubberJohnny: Apr 22, 2008

British Aircraft Carriers are both broken down

quote:

A Royal Navy aircraft carrier has failed to set sail for a Nato exercise, a week after its sister ship pulled out because of a mechanical fault. HMS Prince of Wales was due to replace HMS Queen Elizabeth in Exercise Steadfast Defender - the largest Nato exercise since the Cold War.

However, the �3bn warship has remained in Portsmouth and the harbour mouth has been reopened to normal marine traffic. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) said the departure had been "postponed".

Hundreds of people lined Portsmouth Harbour to watch the carrier's scheduled departure at 12:15 GMT. However, after MoD police boats secured the area and the harbour mouth was closed, the channel was reopened and the crowd dispersed.

One of the destroyers we sent to Yemen broke down too.

# ? Feb 11, 2024 22:35

Scarabrae: Oct 7, 2002; Can't post for 6 hours!

all they got to do is make Army nicer to be in like Buster Bluth�s tour of duty

# ? Feb 11, 2024 22:35

Frosted Flake: Sep 13, 2011; Semper Shitpost Ubique

tatankatonk posted:

an Up or Out personnel policy really is loving crazy for an officer corps, especially one that's having a hard time meeting its recruiting numbers

Luv 2 relocate my family every 3 years for bullshit peacetime assignments or get fired <3

# ? Feb 11, 2024 22:41

Weka: May 5, 2019; That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

Danann posted:

https://mwi.westpoint.edu/ending-the-churn-to-solve-the-recruiting-crisis-the-army-should-be-asking-very-different-questions/

There really does seem to be basically zero appetite for addressing any material concerns like starvation or moldy bases or that those may be a big impact on recruitment despite the acknowledgement earlier that the army relies on poor people for recruits.

What acknowledgement? From their own reporting I've seen the top and bottom income quintiles are underrepresented in the military.

# ? Feb 11, 2024 23:12

ughhhh: Oct 17, 2012

RubberJohnny posted:

British Aircraft Carriers are both broken down

One of the destroyers we sent to Yemen broke down too.

Lmao when some Chinese businessman turns those two failures into a casino or floating restaurant.

# ? Feb 11, 2024 23:26

Mister Bates: Aug 4, 2010

The US military is culturally separated from the common citizenry to a degree it hasn't ever really been before, to the point that it is 100% normal in much of the US to not even personally know anyone in the military

Part of that - I don't know if it's a cause or a symptom or both, but it's definitely related somehow - is that military service in the US is increasingly a hereditary thing. If you join the military it means that you almost certainly have a close relative who is either already in the military or was in the military in the recent past. There was a study done back in I think 2013, 2014? in which new recruits were surveyed, and over 75% of all new recruits across all branches of service had a close relative in the military, topping out at almost 90% of new recruits to the Air Force - what's more, for all branches except the Marines, the majority of new recruits had a close relative in the specific branch they enlisted in. For a solid third of new recruits it was specifically a parent.

That's not to say that no one joins the military for economic reasons, to escape poverty or a bad home situation, but it's definitely exaggerated. If you join the military in the US it's mostly because you're from a 'military family' and have been taught from a young age that you are going to join the military.

For my part, my grandfather reflexively jumps for cover at unexpected loud noises, and once confided in me that he's terrified of death because he's afraid there might be an afterlife in which he's called on to justify the things he did, so I never even considered it, but lots of kids clearly do.

it made aircraft mechanic school super weird because the instructors and the students were both mostly either military or ex-military, and every one of them I talked to had a parent, grandparent, or uncle who had served previously. they also all wanted to work for defense contractors making weapons or maintaining military aircraft, and fantasized about how awesome the future wonder weapons would be, meanwhile I'm over here like 'I want to work in general aviation because I like old airplanes :downs:

Mister Bates has issued a correction as of 23:52 on Feb 11, 2024

# ? Feb 11, 2024 23:47

The Oldest Man: Jul 28, 2003

tfw you accidentally create your own janissary class

# ? Feb 11, 2024 23:53

FirstnameLastname: Jul 10, 2022

its because were descending into a weimar republic hyperinflation state dominated by freikorps esque paramilitaries and conflict between competing lib-to-hitler ideology that unifies to crush outside opposition before collapsing into a fully fascist dictatorship having tantrums and delusionally lashing out at lost empire op

# ? Feb 12, 2024 00:00

Mister Bates: Aug 4, 2010

I do think it is very funny that the Marine enlistees still mostly had close relatives in the military, but in other branches of service

engaging in youthful rebellion against your Army dad by saying 'well gently caress you, I'm joining the Marines!'

# ? Feb 12, 2024 00:01

Skaffen-Amtiskaw: Jun 24, 2023

How it started: HMS Prince of Wales replaces HMS Queen Elizabeth on Nato mission https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-68192756

How it�s going: HMS Prince of Wales fails to depart for Nato exercises https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-68268560

This all very funny.

# ? Feb 12, 2024 00:03

Trabisnikof: Dec 24, 2005

Real hurthling! posted:

i feel like they could just fire mckinsey consultants, give every soldier a raise to 80-100k after 5 years and a 50-60% pension after 20 and not have so many recruit problems but im not an expert in motivation so sure why not try something dumb instead

you dont hire management consultants like mckinsey because you want them to find the answer for you, you hire them because you want them to "find" the answer you already know you want to hear. the rot starts at the top.

# ? Feb 12, 2024 00:32

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Weka posted:

What acknowledgement? From their own reporting I've seen the top and bottom income quintiles are underrepresented in the military.

quote:

The 1940s Roots of the 2020s Recruiting Crisis

In the 1940s, the Army established a personnel system that assumed a steady stream of short-term soldiers. It was initially supported by conscription, and after the adoption of the all-volunteer force (AVF) in 1973, it was enabled by wage stagnation and a lack of economic opportunities particularly for Black Americans and southerners. These societal enablers of a short-term service model no longer exist, and long-term economic and society trends mean the recruiting environment is unlikely to improve.

The Army has been ramping up recruiting efforts after it missed its fiscal year 2022 recruiting goal by 25 percent, and yet in 2023, it still fell 10 percent short of its annual target of sixty-five thousand recruits. The Army has been trying to solve this problem through solutions such as a new three-star command, career fairs, and new �talent acquisition� jobs. Though even with these solutions in place, the Army expects to eventually reach just sixty thousand recruits.

Additional recruiting efforts already face diminishing returns. Already in 2018, the Army increased the number of recruiters and revamped its marketing to meet a shortfall of just 6,500 soldiers, but the problem only worsened. Back in 2015, Undersecretary of the Army Brad R. Carson recognized that increasing recruiting efforts could not maintain an unsustainable personnel system: �It is my firm belief that the current personnel system, which has satisfactorily served us well for 75 years now, has become outdated,� Carson said. �What once worked for us has now, in the 21st century, become unnecessarily inflexible, inefficient, and irreparable.�

The AVF was adopted in 1973 after its recommendation by the Gates Commission, which expected the Army to transition to a longer-term service model with turnover reducing from 26 percent a year to 17 percent a year. With the increased retention of such a model, the voluntary army would require fewer recruits, which would ensure its sustainability. The commission estimated that the military required 265,000 recruits each year to support a force level of 2.1 million. But instead, even with pay increases between 50 and 100 percent, turnover did not decrease, and the military found itself having to enlist up to 470,000 recruits each year. The Army struggled to meet these goals.

In 1977, a RAND report questioned the long-term sustainability of the AVF if the military did not reduce turnover. It found that the military�s personnel policies developed over the draft era focused on allowing ease of management rather than meeting the country�s requirements. The military wanted predictable career patterns for centralized management. It became so habituated to these processes that it kept them after the end of the draft. Voluntary service did not increase retention because the Army maintained its 1940s personnel policies.

Economic Progress Means the Recruiting Crisis will Persist

Since the inception of the AVF, there have been worries that economic growth would hamper recruitment, but fortuitous recessions and wage stagnation saved the AVF. As William King reported on the first year of the AVF, �The Army fell more than 23,000 soldiers short of its recruiting objectives.� He attributed improved performance in the AVF�s second year partly to adjustments in recruiting practices�but also, crucially, to an economic recession.

Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, the Army could attract working-class recruits due to working-class wages stagnating while military pay increased. An article on the twentieth anniversary of the AVF highlighted how recruiting benefited from deindustrialization: �Instead of competing against the lure of relatively high paying factory jobs, military recruiters could offer an alternative to low paying, dead-end jobs in the service industries. In fact, real wages of high school graduates fell through the decade of the 1980s.� However, in the last few years, working-class wages have increased and provided well-paying alternatives to enlistment.

In addition to wage stagnation, the AVF initially benefited from the lack of opportunity for Black Americans. In 1977, they were 11 percent of the American population but 23.7 percent of the Army. They enlisted and reenlisted at much higher rates than White Americans. Now the Army can no longer rely on Black Americans lacking alternative opportunities. Their unemployment rate reached a record low of 4.7 percent in 2023.

Furthermore, since the 1800s, the Army has relied on the relatively impoverished South, which lagged in industrialization, to provide a disproportionate share of recruits. The South has been catching up to the rest of the country. In the 1980s, the Midwest had 25 percent more workers in industry than in the South. Now the regions are level on their percentage of workers in industry. With more economic opportunities in the South for the working class, the Army will find it a less lucrative source of recruits.

The article's own argument was that the military benefited from being relatively better than even flipping burgers and from offering employment for people who had nothing else better. It even identifies the economy improving as being the main factor driving recruitment down.

# ? Feb 12, 2024 00:35

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

RubberJohnny posted:

British Aircraft Carriers are both broken down

One of the destroyers we sent to Yemen broke down too.

Fine British workmanship.

I wonder if the royal navy breaking and crashing into things so much recently is the military equivalent of lying flat, or if that's just the state they have arrived at.

# ? Feb 12, 2024 00:48

mila kunis: Jun 10, 2011

tatankatonk posted:

an Up or Out personnel policy really is loving crazy for an officer corps, especially one that's having a hard time meeting its recruiting numbers

wait Up or Out is applied in the loving military????? Lmfao

# ? Feb 12, 2024 00:48

Jel Shaker: Apr 19, 2003

DancingShade posted:

Fine British workmanship.

I wonder if the royal navy breaking and crashing into things so much recently is the military equivalent of lying flat, or if that's just the state they have arrived at.

i think the whole thing was really a make work program to keep the docks going, but not only has the design and construction been a complete embarrassment, the uk is in the process of closing its last few steel plants so it�s not like we can build any more boats if we wanted to

# ? Feb 12, 2024 00:54

Frosted Flake: Sep 13, 2011; Semper Shitpost Ubique

Mister Bates posted:

I do think it is very funny that the Artillery enlistees still mostly had close relatives in the military, but in other arms of service

engaging in youthful rebellion against your Infantry dad by saying 'well gently caress you, I'm joining the Artillery!'

Many such cases.

# ? Feb 12, 2024 00:55

Rudeboy Detective: Apr 28, 2011

mila kunis posted:

wait Up or Out is applied in the loving military????? Lmfao

it's called social darwinism

it's the bedrock of our democracy, google it

# ? Feb 12, 2024 01:00

Cao Ni Ma: May 25, 2010

Weka posted:

What acknowledgement? From their own reporting I've seen the top and bottom income quintiles are underrepresented in the military.

The acknowledgment is that the churn of new soldiers may not be the optimum strategy for maintaining readiness. This article links back to the war college one made a few months ago, about how the army needs to transition back into division level structures. The articles with military families struggling usually had the same common reason for it, the soldier had to move and got hosed up by the double whammy of the spouse losing their job and the rent market being insane. If they drop the centralized HR and move to a division level managed system again then soldiers will move less and for shorter distances. Soldiers can more realistically use their housing allowance to pay for a mortgage instead of endless rent, their spouse wont lose their job, their kids wont need to uproot into a new school.

I'd probably go a step further on top of the up or out system being removed. Bring back the specialist ranks for non combat positions and make promotions like warrant officers, where you can promote despite not being "in grade" on the MTOE at least to a point (Probably up to spec6). Then make transitioning to WO easier for those soldiers that show a commitment to stick around and continue to improve on the technical aspect of their job.

Theres studies that say that zoomers are willing to take up a job that pays less if its more interesting or less bullshit. Being in the military IS more interesting than flipping burgers and other menial jobs like working at an amazon warehouse. But the amount of bullshit you have to endure from the life just isn't worth it for most people. Decreasing the amount of bullshit is a way to retain them.

# ? Feb 12, 2024 01:25

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# ? May 26, 2024 15:14

ModernMajorGeneral: Jun 25, 2010

ughhhh posted:

Lmao when some Chinese businessman turns those two failures into a casino or floating restaurant.

The 4D chess move will be to trick China into buying them believing they can pull off a Varyag/Liaoning conversion, hamstringing the Chinese navy for a generation

# ? Feb 12, 2024 02:14

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