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The obvious fallback choice would be Kamala, but somehow I don't think either the media or the folks in this thread would be happy with that.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 16:43 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 05:56 |
koolkal posted:People are also mad at Jon Stewart for being too hard on Biden though. The internet exists for people to be mad upon it. The NYT by contrast exists to push the preferred narrative of capital
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 16:45 |
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:"Party Leadership" *waves hands* Especially since "party leadership" was the problem such that they got rid of superdelegates in 2020. DaveWoo posted:The obvious fallback choice would be Kamala, but somehow I don't think either the media or the folks in this thread would be happy with that. Literally the only realistic alternative, and she would not be a good candidate. You think Gavin "I WILL be President" Newsome didn't poll a Biden challenge?
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 16:48 |
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Here's kind of an interesting article from a conservative scholar at AEI who wants to promote marriage and family-oriented public policy. He thinks political elites on both sides are hurting the institution of marriage or raising stable families because they fail to practice what they preach. I don't necessarily agree with most of his points, but some of them are interesting to note and discuss. Some of the instances he cites, especially the lack of movement on tax and government benefit policies that penalize low-income married couples from conservatives and the way that left-wing and right-wing political elites have really begun to live lifestyles that the other defends or advocates, are interesting. Trump is obviously the ur-form of the hypocrisy of family value rhetoric vs. lifestyle, but it has been a thing for a while since before him. His argument is: - Left-wing political elites stress that promoting marriage shouldn't be a public policy goal and they get uncomfortable about economic studies showing that marriage leads to better economic outcomes. Only about 30% of self-described left-wing professionals said they believed that a child raised in by two parents in a married family and stated that kids raised by single parents are no worse off than kids raised by two parents in a stable relationship, despite the data saying that is not correct. However, these same educated elites have personal lives where they are almost always married with stable families, waited until marriage to have kids, and part of their success is likely based on these stable relationships and marriages. - Right-wing political elites are constantly stressing marriage and stable families as important social goals, but they don't promote policies that will encourage families or marriage. Right-wing elites seems uninterested in fixing tax code issues that penalize low-income Americans who receive government benefits or tax credits if they get married. They also want to slash all programs that could help make it easier to start a family and don't distinguish between different kinds of spending they want to cut. Additionally, in their personal lives, many conservative elites are married multiple times, have multiple children by multiple women out of wedlock, and engage in public hypocrisy. - The result, he argues, is that none of the political elites in the country are actually walking the walk and talking the talk by promoting family-oriented public policy, living as positive role models, or promoting the ideas of marriage/waiting to have kids until after marriage as a social good. Studies show that one of the single largest drivers of personal happiness is a stable long-term relationship and being able to plan (financially and socially) for your children. However, during the last few decades Americans have been staying single longer, delaying marriage, and having kids before they are married. During the same time, American's self-reported happiness in their personal lives has fallen at about the same rate. The rest of the article cites a lot of specific instances of policy failures (and the part about how the military has an entirely different tax and benefit structure for married couples and children that is much more generous, while the general population of low-income Americans actually loses benefits in some circumstances if they get married), but is an interesting read and worth reading the whole thing even you don't agree with some of his premises or conclusions. https://twitter.com/BradWilcoxIFS/status/1757378757906636825 quote:The Awfulness of Elite Hypocrisy on Marriage Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 16:54 on Feb 13, 2024 |
# ? Feb 13, 2024 16:51 |
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koolkal posted:I'm not really sure what this has to do with anything. Content creators live and die by the algorithms, assuming there is no physiological reason specific types/genres of content can be created, we are left to assume that what is granted exposure by the algorithms, (and by extension encouraged to be created) is a, if not the primary determination of what content is created by sex. There may be excellent non-sexualized gaming adjacent content created by women, but it isn't being promoted. Hopefully that cleared things up.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 16:53 |
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Senate Cum Dump posted:That's rather dismissive and just wrong at face value. He could resign, party leadership could pressure him to step down. I imagine the spectacle of a sitting US president stepping aside, or his party forcing him out would be catastrophic from an electoral standpoint for the Democrats. Plus RWM will just find some other angle of attack against whoever would fill that void because liberals/Democrats/leftists love nothing more than gleefully accepting their framing on every issue.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 16:53 |
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Biden is a historically unpopular president, but Kamala's numbers are pretty much in line with his: I guess one thing she has going for her is that, unlike for our ancient President, there aren't any recent polls where 86% of Americans say they think she's too old for the job. The public seems generally unhappy with the job they've been doing, though, so swapping them out probably wouldn't accomplish much.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 16:55 |
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I read a story that talked about how much Williamsburg (NY) has gentrified over the years. While gentrification is not great, how would one counteract the process? You can't prevent folks from moving to new places, so I guess something to do with housing maybe?
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 17:00 |
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Nobody's numbers are doing better than Biden. There isn't some other Dem candidate or governor that's raking in the small dollar donations and packing rallies. I don't know if they're still polling other non-Biden names, but Whitmer and Newsome and whoever else weren't improving on Biden's polling at all.Nissin Cup Nudist posted:I read a story that talked about how much Williamsburg (NY) has gentrified over the years. While gentrification is not great, how would one counteract the process? You can't prevent folks from moving to new places, so I guess something to do with housing maybe? Fire a single gunshot into the air every morning. (But yeah housing, areas get gentrified because they are cheaper to live in. I'm not sure that you can eliminate it, areas that get gentrified are probably always going to have cheaper housing than other areas, but as you increase housing options and decrease the price, you'd see less people get pushed out of their existing homes due to finances.)
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 17:01 |
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B B posted:Biden is a historically unpopular president, but Kamala's numbers are pretty much in line with his: Not terribly surprising. And odds are, any Dem candidate would get dragged down into that same range after a few months of right-wing media coverage.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 17:02 |
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:I read a story that talked about how much Williamsburg (NY) has gentrified over the years. While gentrification is not great, how would one counteract the process? You can't prevent folks from moving to new places, so I guess something to do with housing maybe? I don't want to say gentrification is a natural phenomenon but it's fairly close as you say, people want to move to a place with opportunity and affordable housing. In the US gentrification happened over time from the 70s to the 90s when white flight made city housing much cheaper. The answer for the most part is to not only preserve the housing that exists in these communities but to expand and make multi-income housing. Other ideas you could do: -Flipping tax -Vacancy taxes -expand housing options in suburbia
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 17:04 |
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B B posted:Biden is a historically unpopular president, but Kamala's numbers are pretty much in line with his: Nixon, Carter, Truman, HW Bush, GW Bush, and Trump are deeply grateful that you forgot they exist. Kchama fucked around with this message at 17:10 on Feb 13, 2024 |
# ? Feb 13, 2024 17:08 |
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Kchama posted:Nixon, Carter, Truman, HW Bush, GW Bush, and Trump are deeply grateful that you forgot they exist. With the exception of Truman, Biden is polling worse than all of them at the same point in their respective presidencies. He's also trending downward both in terms of his overall approval rating and net approval rating. I think he just needs a little more time to become the GOAT of unpopular presidents.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 17:15 |
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B B posted:With the exception of Truman, Biden is polling worse than all of them at the same point in their respective presidencies. He's also trending downward both in terms of his overall approval rating and net approval rating. I think he just needs a little more time to become the GOAT of unpopular presidents. Trump, Truman, HW Bush, and Carter had far worse at this time in their presidency. But you haven’t been saying “historically unpopular at this exact time in their presidency” you have been saying “historically unpopular”, which Biden is far from. And even then, the only one that leaves out is GWB because he had insane massive popularity in this first term due to 9/11. One that faded he was the most historically unpopular president we have polls for. EDIT: What I’m getting at is that having poo poo popularity 3/4th of your term isn’t unusual, and the ‘non-historically unpopular’ presidents usually don’t fare that much better around this time. Even Obama had a pretty bad approval rating at this point and he pretty well cruised to a second term. Biden’s approval rating is bad, but even Ronald Reagan’s polls were bad around this time too. Kchama fucked around with this message at 17:27 on Feb 13, 2024 |
# ? Feb 13, 2024 17:22 |
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The New York Times is talking about Biden’s brain because he refused to take a cognitive test. One President Trump passed with flying colors while being 200 lbs.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 17:26 |
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Kchama posted:Trump, Truman, HW Bush, and Carter had far worse at this time in their presidency. But you haven’t been saying “historically unpopular at this exact time in their presidency” you have been saying “historically unpopular”, which Biden is far from. And even then, the only one that leaves out is GWB because he had insane massive popularity in this first term due to 9/11. One that faded he was the most historically unpopular president we have polls for. Of the Presidents you mentioned, only Truman was polling worse than Biden at this point in their respective presidencies: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ Reagan was also above 50% at this point in his presidency. Obama was also trending upward at this point in his presidency and was hovering around 50% by the time election day came. Biden's numbers do indicate that he is historically unpopular.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 17:31 |
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Nonsense posted:The New York Times is talking about Biden’s brain because he refused to take a cognitive test. One President Trump passed with flying colors while being 200 lbs. I don't see the Times mentioning this, just foxnews and the Post? Though they directly quote a briefing question response. If this is accurate it is kind of weird as a basic cognitive test is pretty standard for patients who are 65+
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 17:35 |
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Kagrenak posted:I don't see the Times mentioning this, just foxnews and the Post? Though they directly quote a briefing question response. If this is accurate it is kind of weird as a basic cognitive test is pretty standard for patients who are 65+ KJP was asked about it during the White House briefing yesterday and confirmed that he won't take a cognitive test: Yahoo posted:Biden's upcoming physical exam will not include a cognitive test, White House says Here's the relevant part of the briefing for anyone interested: https://www.youtube.com/live/EyknhFs09oY?feature=shared&t=2711 Despite his advanced age and memory issues, I'm glad to see that Biden has better instincts than Elizabeth Warren with regard to taking tests a politician absolutely should not take. B B fucked around with this message at 17:43 on Feb 13, 2024 |
# ? Feb 13, 2024 17:38 |
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B B posted:Of the Presidents you mentioned, only Truman was polling worse than Biden at this point in their respective presidencies: Every single president in the past 30 years has been the most historically unpopular president than the last. They declared this about Trump, about Obama, about Bush, about HW Bush (Okay, so one escaped the curse). But the thing is, Obama and Bush won reelection. Obama’s wasn’t even close. I’ll be scared if Biden is still under 40% in September, but until then he’s nowhere near the historically unpopular president.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 17:44 |
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Kchama posted:Every single president in the past 30 years has been the most historically unpopular president than the last. They declared this about Trump, about Obama, about Bush, about HW Bush (Okay, so one escaped the curse). But the thing is, Obama and Bush won reelection. Obama’s wasn’t even close. I’ll be scared if Biden is still under 40% in September, but until then he’s nowhere near the historically unpopular president. Those goalposts look pretty heavy. Need help?
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 17:48 |
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We've had candidates in the last decade whose approval was better when they ran in an election and had worse overall performance in that election. We've had candidates whose approval got worse over a period of time and had better performance. Bidens performance was supposed to be a noose around Democrats neck across every phase of his candidacy and it hasn't been. It's loving tedious slogging through these posts claiming it's super relevant, or even relevant.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 17:52 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:In the continuing trend of "literally everything becoming partisan" news, views on specific states have dramatically shifted and sorted by partisanship. This seems like a good place to put my one joke about Florida, that joke being the only good thing about that state is the Happiest Place on Earth: Kennedy Space Center. Because it gets you off of Earth.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 17:52 |
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mawarannahr posted:Those goalposts look pretty heavy. Need help? I don’t appear to be moving them. My argument is still the same. He’s as much of a ‘historically unpopular president’ as any other in recent times, especially since others have been much more unpopular over their presidency. My point is and half been that declaring them them the most historically unpopular president 3/4th through their first term isn’t really reflective of how things will shake out. A bunch of presidents had worse polls at this time, and some people called them historically unpopular, and then they turned out to be Obama who ended up still quite popular in the end. https://www.ussc.edu.au/obama-voted-most-unpopular-president-since-wwii For example. This just really gets to that it’s still too early to tell how it’ll shake out for reelection (or even how Biden’s popularity will end up). Shammypants posted:We've had candidates in the last decade whose approval was better when they ran in an election and had worse overall performance in that election. We've had candidates whose approval got worse over a period of time and had better performance. Bidens performance was supposed to be a noose around Democrats neck across every phase of his candidacy and it hasn't been. It's loving tedious slogging through these posts claiming it's super relevant, or even relevant. Yeah, this is exactly it.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 17:57 |
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Kchama posted:I don’t appear to be moving them. My argument is still the same. He’s as much of a ‘historically unpopular president’ as any other in recent times, especially since others have been much more unpopular over their presidency. My point is and half been that declaring them them the most historically unpopular president 3/4th through their first term isn’t really reflective of how things will shake out. A bunch of presidents had worse polls at this time, and some people called them historically unpopular, and then they turned out to be Obama who ended up still quite popular in the end. I personally feel that assuming the election will be an uphill climb is probably healthier than dismissing these concerns out of hand. Better to have and not need, and all that.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 18:03 |
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Inglonias posted:I personally feel that assuming the election will be an uphill climb is probably healthier than dismissing these concerns out of hand. Better to have and not need, and all that. I actually don’t think it is going to be an easy victory at all, but pretending that polls are predictive this far out is silly. Even September is probably a bit early, but it’ll give a lot better idea how things will be going into the election.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 18:05 |
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zoux posted:Well he can't be replaced and he can't be made younger, so there's nothing to do about it, is there got to be accurate here in this forum and whatnot
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 18:11 |
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Biden is going to set new presidential record by winning a majority of the votes and re-election while also having majority disapproval
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 18:12 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Here's kind of an interesting article from a conservative scholar at AEI who wants to promote marriage and family-oriented public policy. quote:Research clearly shows that taking three steps—(1) getting at least a high-school degree, (2) working full-time in your 20s, and (3) marrying before you have children—dramatically increases your odds of reaching the middle class or higher and minimizes the chances of your children growing up in poverty.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 18:14 |
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biden (or trump [or both ]) is going to be historical by dying from being an old man a week before the election and caus8ng the whole world to unite in laughter at the absurdity of the american empire
World Famous W fucked around with this message at 18:18 on Feb 13, 2024 |
# ? Feb 13, 2024 18:14 |
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Senate Cum Dump posted:It doesn't really matter if it's a false equivalence and Trump isn't getting covered the same way. That doesn't address the root concern which is that Biden is feeble and is perceived as such. Deflecting the issue is not going to change any voters' minds. The thing you're responding to isn't the Democrats going "but what about when Trump forgets things??", it's a media outlet going "but what about when Trump forgets things??". Which is important, because these perceptions are heavily shaped by the media. Most of our exposure to these candidates comes via media, after all, and that media exposure usually has a narrative attached. Tnega posted:Content creators live and die by the algorithms, assuming there is no physiological reason specific types/genres of content can be created, we are left to assume that what is granted exposure by the algorithms, (and by extension encouraged to be created) is a, if not the primary determination of what content is created by sex. There may be excellent non-sexualized gaming adjacent content created by women, but it isn't being promoted. Hopefully that cleared things up. The reason there's a bunch of sexualized content on Twitch is because it has two dedicated sections for softcore near-porn, and the reason that this sexualized content skews heavily female is because the site's userbase skews heavily male and isn't exactly a LGBT haven. "The algorithm" has become a convenient boogeyman, but I think people have become far too quick to pin blame on it, because the algorithm is very rarely the actual root problem. Social media algorithms tend to amplify and exaggerate problems that already exist, but it's very rare for them to actually be directly responsible for creating the problem. B B posted:With the exception of Truman, Biden is polling worse than all of them at the same point in their respective presidencies. He's also trending downward both in terms of his overall approval rating and net approval rating. I think he just needs a little more time to become the GOAT of unpopular presidents. Sure, but why pin it to a particular point in their presidencies? It's not like presidential approval ratings are primarily time-based or follow consistent patterns over the course of an administration. They're heavily influenced by real-world events and conditions. If you were talking just about the election, then yeah, comparing Biden's approval rating before the election to other presidents' approval ratings before their reelection attempt might be informative (though I think we're still a little too early for that to be useful). But when you're talking about popularity in general, it doesn't really make a whole lot of sense to compare across the same point in each president's term.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 18:15 |
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Obama's post-honeymoon poll numbers definitely suffered compared to his real-world electability under increasing radicalization of the right, the explosive growth of pervasive right-wing media, tireless laundering of the previous administration's reputation by his critics, and the difficulty of getting representative samples when people under 40 wouldn't answer their phone. For Biden it's all there or accelerated, and now it's people under 50, well into their prime voting years. It makes it hard to tell how much of it translates into actual votes against him that Generic Democrat would have won.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 18:16 |
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zoux posted:Nobody's numbers are doing better than Biden. There isn't some other Dem candidate or governor that's raking in the small dollar donations and packing rallies. I don't know if they're still polling other non-Biden names, but Whitmer and Newsome and whoever else weren't improving on Biden's polling at all. This is just not true. Back in November, there was a Fox News poll that showed that the best candidate vs Donald J Trump is not Joe Biden, but Joe Manchin. Unfortunately, he was also behind Trump by 2 points. https://nypost.com/2023/11/16/news/trump-beats-biden-newsom-harris-manchin-in-2024-poll/ For everyone worried about Biden's chances, they need to coalesce around Joe Manchin.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 18:19 |
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Also Biden isn’t going up against a fresh face who has never had the stink of being an unpopular president on him. Trump’s approval ratings aren’t much better and he’s had time out of the limelight for people to forget how awful he was.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 18:21 |
Main Paineframe posted:The reason there's a bunch of sexualized content on Twitch is because it has two dedicated sections for softcore near-porn, and the reason that this sexualized content skews heavily female is because the site's userbase skews heavily male and isn't exactly a LGBT haven. I think amplifying and exaggerating existing problems is a causal mechanism of sufficient significance to be worthy of direct blame.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 18:21 |
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Main Paineframe posted:Sure, but why pin it to a particular point in their presidencies? It's not like presidential approval ratings are primarily time-based or follow consistent patterns over the course of an administration. They're heavily influenced by real-world events and conditions. I was responding to a claim that other presidents were polling worse at this point in their presidencies that Biden at this point in their presidencies. I also pointed out that his numbers are and have been on a downward trend for quite some time. I haven't made any claims about what kind of impact that this will have on the results of the presidential election, because it's far too early for polls to be predictive. I do think that his level of unpopularity--he's more unpopular than Trump at this point, even--combined with the fact that nearly 90% of the American populace thinks he's too old to be president is not a great sign, even if it's not predictive.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 18:23 |
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B B posted:I was responding to a claim that other presidents were polling worse at this point in their presidencies that Biden at this point in their presidencies. No you weren’t. I was only challenging your “Historically unpopular” because other presidents were more unpopular, period. Kchama posted:Nixon, Carter, Truman, HW Bush, GW Bush, and Trump are deeply grateful that you forgot they exist. I said nothing about “at this point in their presidency”.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 18:26 |
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Baronash posted:It shouldn't be a worse bet financially to be married than be single/unmarried. That I can agree with. The rest is really frustrating because it seems to be a bit of a shell game where he touts the benefits of marriage on children while actually referring to (at various points) two-parent households, lower vs. higher incomes, education, and general life/economic stability. These things generally seem to be present in stable marriages, but that doesn't mean that the institution itself was the cause of it. Honestly, how does someone throw this in their article and not realize they've given the game away: Yeah he (and conservatives) have got it backwards. Higher incomes, education, and general life/economic stability cause more marriages, marriages do not cause higher incomes. The root of all this is virtue economics which is garbage and has the same problem.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 18:35 |
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Kchama posted:No you weren’t. I was only challenging your “Historically unpopular” because other presidents were more unpopular, period. You also made this claim, which is wrong: Kchama posted:Trump, Truman, HW Bush, and Carter had far worse at this time in their presidency. But you haven’t been saying “historically unpopular at this exact time in their presidency” you have been saying “historically unpopular”, which Biden is far from. And even then, the only one that leaves out is GWB because he had insane massive popularity in this first term due to 9/11. One that faded he was the most historically unpopular president we have polls for. Biden's numbers are absolute dogshit, and it's laughable that he's somehow found a way to be even more unpopular than Trump. Either way, I'm happy to drop the discussion, because we're talking in circles at this point.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 18:35 |
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I actually posted my source for that claim and it showed the worst poll they all had and at what time and those I mentioned all had worse than Biden has gotten so far. And that list is a lot worse for Biden than using the averages. Biden is not going to cruise to an easy reelection, but considering he’s going up against someone who actually had worse popularity than he did, it’s more of an even playing field than anything.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 18:42 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 05:56 |
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So is the Santos replacement race happening today? Anyone have any news? I listened to some NYT podcast that said it was super close because IMMIGRATION and the GOP candidate being some ultra Zionist.
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# ? Feb 13, 2024 19:11 |