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Zwabu posted:So is the Santos replacement race happening today? Anyone have any news? I listened to some NYT podcast that said it was super close because IMMIGRATION and the GOP candidate being some ultra Zionist. https://twitter.com/JSweetLI/status/1757435942560747813 I've only kind of been paying attention but there's a big snow storm in NY today and - again this is passively gleaned knowledge so I'll stand to be corrected - the GOP needed a big E-day turnout because early and mail-in voting are fraudulent and so they didn't do em.
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Feb 13, 2024 19:17
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Zwabu posted:So is the Santos replacement race happening today? Anyone have any news? I listened to some NYT podcast that said it was super close because IMMIGRATION and the GOP candidate being some ultra Zionist. We had s decent amount of snow fall overnight, which may depress in-person turnout. The GOP candidate is Mazi Pilip, who as a child went to Israel to escape the Ethiopian civil war. Both her and Democrat candidate Tom Suozzi are vocal Israel supporters. As for IMMIGRATION, Pilip wants to ~build the wall~ and Suozzi supported the immigration deal that fell apart. This district elected Suozzi 3 times, but he chose not to run in 2020, which is how Santos slipped in
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Feb 13, 2024 19:19
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Discendo Vox posted:I think amplifying and exaggerating existing problems is a causal mechanism of sufficient significance to be worthy of direct blame. It can sometimes share part of the blame, yes. But I think there's an increasing tendency these days to use "the algorithm" as a thought-terminating cliche, where people simply blame things on "the algorithm" and don't bother to investigate the root cause of the problem or the ways in which the algorithm impacts it. I think it stands out really well in this particular case. Twitch is a major camming site with a mostly-male userbase and a dedicated swimsuits section. It's not surprising at all that there might be a lot more sexualized women! Yet someone's immediate response to this was to blindly blame "the algorithm", without even the slightest effort to explore other potential causes.
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Feb 13, 2024 19:21
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IF this tweet is correct a very low E-day turnout would be extremely bad for the GOP candidate
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Feb 13, 2024 19:33
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Main Paineframe posted:It can sometimes share part of the blame, yes. But I think there's an increasing tendency these days to use "the algorithm" as a thought-terminating cliche, where people simply blame things on "the algorithm" and don't bother to investigate the root cause of the problem or the ways in which the algorithm impacts it. To the degree that the creation of the swimsuit section is the product of deliberate decisions reflecting pursuit of the outcome measures selected for by the design of the site, that response seems valid.
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Feb 13, 2024 19:41
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We have a new thread for electoral politics and political strategies ("electoralism"), and I ask that in-depth discussion be taken there so that those who are interested can opt in and those uninterested can opt out. The OP of this thread has been updated accordingly.
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Feb 13, 2024 19:44
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socialsecurity posted:It's really kinda worrisome there aren't many good answers here, they really need beef up their bench. There are a lot of good candidates. None of them have been posturing to challenge Biden because it is not done when your party has the incumbent President and they are not scandal ridden and have a good economy. That is why you only had Dean Phillips, Marianne Williamson and RFK Jr.
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Feb 13, 2024 19:50
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Zwabu posted:There are a lot of good candidates. None of them have been posturing to challenge Biden because it is not done when your party has the incumbent President and they are not scandal ridden and have a good economy. That is why you only had Dean Phillips, Marianne Williamson and RFK Jr. this. i think if poo poo was really bad behind closed doors we would have seen way more actual challanges then bored red state dem rep and RFKs failson and tiktock lady.
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Feb 13, 2024 19:58
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Assuming Biden wins this year so elections are still a thing, who would the DNC tee up to run in 2028?
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Feb 13, 2024 20:01
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Crows Turn Off posted:Assuming Biden wins this year so elections are still a thing, who would the DNC tee up to run in 2028? Harris, newsom, whitmer, Shapiro, pritsker, Pete, probably someone from from the squad, probably warren again, maybe bernie, probably more or some unknowns.
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Feb 13, 2024 20:04
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Dapper_Swindler posted:Harris, newsom, whitmer, Shapiro, pritsker, Pete, probably someone from from the squad, probably warren again, maybe bernie, probably more or some unknowns. Kentucky guy as well
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Feb 13, 2024 20:06
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In terms of governors right now Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, J. B. Pritzker, and Andy Beshear are the ones with the most visibility and bona fides, I think. Struggling to think of senators/reps/other offices off the top of my head.
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Feb 13, 2024 20:07
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Pretty deep bench, I imagine most of them probably polled, or were shown polling, of a Biden challenge and they decided to sit this one out rather than end up like Desantis. Personally, I think Whitmer would be my choice, done a lot with narrow legislative majorities and she's from a critical midwest state. But watching Gavin dogwalk meatball ron made me less worried about a Newsom candidacy. zoux fucked around with this message at 20:10 on Feb 13, 2024 |
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Feb 13, 2024 20:07
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Baronash posted:It shouldn't be a worse bet financially to be married than be single/unmarried. That I can agree with. The rest is really frustrating because it seems to be a bit of a shell game where he touts the benefits of marriage on children while actually referring to (at various points) two-parent households, lower vs. higher incomes, education, and general life/economic stability. These things generally seem to be present in stable marriages, but that doesn't mean that the institution itself was the cause of it. Honestly, how does someone throw this in their article and not realize they've given the game away: Agreed on most of the points. I think the "walk the walk" swap is pretty interesting. All the well-educated liberal elites are basically living the family values that conservatives preach while conservative elites are getting divorced three times, cheating on their wives, having threesomes, and having kids out of wedlock. It's kind of weird that as the Republican party became more and more composed of white evangelicals, that its leaders became less and less people who lived a "family values" lifestyle and as the Democratic party became less and less religious, their leaders became more and more "family values" types.
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Feb 13, 2024 20:08
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Dapper_Swindler posted:this. i think if poo poo was really bad behind closed doors we would have seen way more actual challanges then bored red state dem rep and RFKs failson and tiktock lady. Both the people who are acting and those who are not make perfect sense once you recognize that the unpopularity and lack of enthusiasm comes almost entirely from Biden's right. Including acknowledging that most of the people in that space are real dumb or politically incoherent.
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Feb 13, 2024 20:09
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zoux posted:Pretty deep bench, I imagine most of them probably polled, or were shown polling, of a Biden challenge and they decided to sit this one out rather than end up like Desantis. yeah. biden has deep enough support in the base and incumbancy that its dumb to run. if that was gonna happen, it was gonna be around this time last year. desanits made a similar mistake and dithered so long he lost any oppertunity to run and win.
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Feb 13, 2024 20:09
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Crows Turn Off posted:Assuming Biden wins this year so elections are still a thing, who would the DNC tee up to run in 2028? Joe the Plumbers ghost
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Feb 13, 2024 20:10
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Discendo Vox posted:States have not been able to legalize recreational cannabis usage and control its distribution. It’s been a shitshow free-for-all. That has more to do with federalism than anything. Other places have done a reasonable job with legalizing weed.
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Feb 13, 2024 20:17
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Living in that region, the political ads for that special election have been even more obnoxious than usual, I won’t miss them.
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Feb 13, 2024 20:17
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Relevant Tangent posted:That has more to do with federalism than anything. This isn't relevant to the general discussion but this reminds me about something I've long wondered: are there other countries where "states" or whatever they call their federalized administrative zones, have as much autonomy as the US?
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Feb 13, 2024 20:19
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Crows Turn Off posted:Assuming Biden wins this year so elections are still a thing, who would the DNC tee up to run in 2028? The DNC will back whoever gets the votes, but I think there's been only one primary in my memory that people would have accurately guessed that four years out.
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Feb 13, 2024 20:19
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Agreed on most of the points. I think the "walk the walk" swap is pretty interesting. All the well-educated liberal elites are basically living the family values that conservatives preach while conservative elites are getting divorced three times, cheating on their wives, having threesomes, and having kids out of wedlock. The article seems to me like it's describing a symptom and thinking they've found a cause. People who are generally well off in other respects and otherwise happy and healthy often want to get married! They also tend to vote Democrat. Conversely, the Republican Party right now is essentially a gigantic chain email scam masquerading as a political party. Their voters all fit the profile of scam victims (elderly, angry, emotional, vulnerable, often victimized, bigoted and easily swayed by propaganda, etc) and their leadership all fit the profile of scam artists (because that is what they are). When you have sufficient government support and social programs to support families, families form. When you don't, they collapse. Same deal as how the clean air act did more to reduce crime by removing ambient lead air pollution than all our incarceration ever has. If you want a good society you have to support its growth.
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Feb 13, 2024 20:19
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:I read a story that talked about how much Williamsburg (NY) has gentrified over the years. While gentrification is not great, how would one counteract the process? You can't prevent folks from moving to new places, so I guess something to do with housing maybe? The main thing is that for non-billionaires, the housing chain is very real. A city (NYC), has added hundreds of thousands of new jobs in the last 10 years, and that means there have been tens of thousands of high paying jobs added for rich yuppies making $250k/year. But the traditional yuppies neighborhoods did not add any new housing, so there's no space for these new yuppies, and they don't have the cash to win bidding wars with even older and even richer former yuppies. But they aren't going to leave the city, they have jobs there. So they grudgingly move over to the next neighborhood over, and settle for a slightly less fancy home. They will get those slightly less fancy homes because they have enough money to win bidding wars against the people who were there. The people in the slightly less fancy neighborhood aren't going to leave the city, it's their home. So they are going to move to a slightly worse neighborhood where they can win a bidding war against people who are slightly poorer than they are. And then those people who get pushed out usually end up moving to a slightly poorer neighborhood and pushing people out in bidding wars over there. Anyway, the key things to remember are - Almost everyone in the chain is both a victim of gentrification and a cause of gentrification for the next neighborhood down - No one, not even the rich yuppies who start the chain, actually lives in the home they really want. They all want a nicer place than the place they got pushed to. That's why building more housing is so important. It breaks the chain of gentrification victims becoming gentrifyers, and this works even if they are ultra expensive luxury apartments. Because luxury apartments in yuppie neighborhoods stop the yuppies from starting the chain in the first place (remember the rich yuppies don't want to live in the middle class neighborhoods they are gentrifying, they wanted to live where their yuppie forbears live). https://twitter.com/Jonathan_Nolan_/status/1753515852018614682
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Feb 13, 2024 20:26
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golden bubble posted:The main thing is that for non-billionaires, the housing chain is very real. A city (NYC), has added hundreds of thousands of new jobs in the last 10 years, and that means there have been tens of thousands of high paying jobs added for rich yuppies making $250k/year. But the traditional yuppies neighborhoods did not add any new housing, so there's no space for these new yuppies, and they don't have the cash to win bidding wars with even older and even richer former yuppies. But they aren't going to leave the city, they have jobs there. So they grudgingly move over to the next neighborhood over, and settle for a slightly less fancy home. They will get those slightly less fancy homes because they have enough money to win bidding wars against the people who were there. The people in the slightly less fancy neighborhood aren't going to leave the city, it's their home. So they are going to move to a slightly worse neighborhood where they can win a bidding war against people who are slightly poorer than they are. And then those people who get pushed out usually end up moving to a slightly poorer neighborhood and pushing people out in bidding wars over there. Anyway, the key things to remember are Yeah my personal policy is now "build more everywhere anything" these days.
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Feb 13, 2024 20:56
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zoux posted:This isn't relevant to the general discussion but this reminds me about something I've long wondered: are there other countries where "states" or whatever they call their federalized administrative zones, have as much autonomy as the US? Australia delegates a fair amount of authority to its states, not sure exactly how it compares to the US though. Germany too.
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Feb 13, 2024 21:02
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Good info here. In addition to housing, would it help if all the good yuppie jobs were spread over the country instead of just the desirable cities? Like, some people would never move to Bumfuck, Midwest US no matter what but it would be a lot more desirable if they got 250K/yr to do so
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Feb 13, 2024 21:18
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Good info here. I know a lot of New Yorkers and Jersey are moving to PA now because while housing is still nuts, it’s a lot less nuts there.
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Feb 13, 2024 21:24
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Discendo Vox posted:To the degree that the creation of the swimsuit section is the product of deliberate decisions reflecting pursuit of the outcome measures selected for by the design of the site, that response seems valid. Well, no, because the creation of the swimsuit section has nothing to do with algorithms. It's like asking why SA has a forum where people post about drugs a lot, and then answering it with "because of the algorithms". It's a conscious decision directly and intentionally made by human beings who are directly making decisions about what their site will allow, endorse, and have dedicated spaces for. Jumping straight to blaming algorithms is just absolving the actual human decision-makers of their accountability and responsibility (which, ironically, is exactly a thing people often fear that algorithms will be used for).
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Feb 13, 2024 21:29
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A couple of interesting follow ups to the special counsel report on Biden's classified documents situation. First up, it looks like the House is working on setting up time for Hur to testify about the report: CNN posted:First on CNN: House GOP in discussions with Biden special counsel Robert Hur for testimony There's also new polling out that indicates half of Americans feel that Biden got special treatment during the special counsel investigation because he is a sitting president. 78% of respondents also indicate that they feel Biden is too old to be President, which is similar to the result that ABC got a couple days ago: Reuters posted:Half of Americans think Biden got special treatment in document probe, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
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Feb 13, 2024 21:33
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/JSweetLI/status/1757435942560747813 I'm don't live that close to this district, but I've seen a ridiculously low amount of advertising or news coverage for this race. I'm a bit nervous about the outcome. zoux posted:IF this tweet is correct a very low E-day turnout would be extremely bad for the GOP candidate I hope this is true.
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Feb 13, 2024 21:37
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After failing to impeach Biden for something his son did, they'll try impeaching him for something their own presidential candidate did. Interesting strategyEric Cantonese posted:I'm don't live that close to this district, but I've seen a ridiculously low amount of advertising or news coverage for this race. I'm a bit nervous about the outcome. You must not watch much TV (wise choice). I've seen a lot of anti-Pilip ads, mostly hitting her pro-life position
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Feb 13, 2024 21:37
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Ugh... https://twitter.com/JSweetLI/status/1757465886204551558 https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1757486733724180990 https://twitter.com/JSweetLI/status/1757494078407586041 https://twitter.com/skrichev13/status/1757501574887158019 EDIT: I'm getting a lot of "who knows?!?!" from this. Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 21:52 on Feb 13, 2024 |
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Feb 13, 2024 21:40
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B B posted:There's also new polling out that indicates half of Americans feel that Biden got special treatment during the special counsel investigation because he is a sitting president. Could this be the time Democrats learn that any effort at all to appease the Republicans and try to look "fair" is wasted effort and it's always, always going to turn around and bite them in the rear end when Republicans start to lie about everything? Even appointing one of them to write the report is just giving up the fight before it's begun, but THIS TIME surely Lucy will hold that football for them!
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Feb 13, 2024 21:43
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bird food bathtub posted:Could this be the time Democrats learn that any effort at all to appease the Republicans and try to look "fair" is wasted effort and it's always, always going to turn around and bite them in the rear end when Republicans start to lie about everything? Even appointing one of them to write the report is just giving up the fight before it's begun, but THIS TIME surely Lucy will hold that football for them! Look at how Obama was willing to give the GOP everything they’ve ever wanted on Medicare, SS, etc but the GOP didn’t want to give him a ‘win’
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Feb 13, 2024 21:44
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FlamingLiberal posted:It’s been like this my entire adult lifetime I mean, Obama’s favorite pundit was David Brooks, that’s who he sought approval from. Biden? Joe Scarborough. This is just who they are. They’re not dupes, they’re just people who look up to idiots like those pundits, that’s whose approval they seek.
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Feb 13, 2024 21:49
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Good info here.  I think one thing that makes gentrification much worse in the US are the high property taxes. Which apparently means that if some rich yuppies move into the neighborhood you've lived in since 1953, suddenly the value of your housing goes up and you literally can't afford to pay the taxes to stay there. OTOH my grandfather has lived in the same place since like the 70s and despite the area becoming much more popular and expensive, can still live there just fine on limited income, because the costs of living didn't force him out.
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Feb 13, 2024 21:59
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Probably not on the cards for 2028 for obvious reasons, but what do you suppose the odds are of Fetterman running a campaign in the next decade or so, assuming his health remains stable?
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Feb 13, 2024 22:02
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High drama in the race for George Santos' replacement. https://twitter.com/brittanys/status/1757499647398908218
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Feb 13, 2024 22:03
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I live just to the south of the third district and the snow came pretty hard, quite a few businesses are closed, all schools are closed. GOP is probably hosed if they weren't already.
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Feb 13, 2024 22:06
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mobby_6kl posted:I'm sure some would. Enough to make a difference? If your grandfather has been living in the same place since the seventies he’s probably got more rooms in his house than he is using though, right? And economic policies should discourage overconsumption of housing. If this isn’t the case, sorry for assuming, but in general low property taxes not forcing people to downsize is contributing to housing scarcity, at least here in California.
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Feb 13, 2024 22:10
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