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Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

mobby_6kl posted:

I'm sure some would. Enough to make a difference? :shrug:

I think one thing that makes gentrification much worse in the US are the high property taxes. Which apparently means that if some rich yuppies move into the neighborhood you've lived in since 1953, suddenly the value of your housing goes up and you literally can't afford to pay the taxes to stay there. OTOH my grandfather has lived in the same place since like the 70s and despite the area becoming much more popular and expensive, can still live there just fine on limited income, because the costs of living didn't force him out.

Most places have caps on how much your property tax can increase every year and your property isn't reassessed every year. Most places only reassess every 5 to 10 years. It wouldn't be a large increase all at once.

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Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land





what the hell is a "great neck" thing

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

what the hell is a "great neck" thing

Nancy Reagan's epitaph

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

what the hell is a "great neck" thing

It's a rich neighborhood in Long Island with a lot of orthodox Jews.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

what the hell is a "great neck" thing

Great Neck is a wealthy neighborhood in Long Island. It is apparently full of registered Democrats who like to vote Republican.

mdemone
Mar 14, 2001

Eric Cantonese posted:

Great Neck is a wealthy neighborhood in Long Island. It is apparently full of registered Democrats who like to vote Republican.

You know what, what are we even doing here

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

Dapper_Swindler posted:

Harris, newsom, whitmer, Shapiro, pritsker, Pete, probably someone from from the squad, probably warren again, maybe bernie, probably more or some unknowns.

Much as I'd love it, Bernie will be 87 in 2028 and he's already lost the primary twice and had a heart attack the last time. Sadly, Pritzker might be the best hope there...

zoux posted:

This isn't relevant to the general discussion but this reminds me about something I've long wondered: are there other countries where "states" or whatever they call their federalized administrative zones, have as much autonomy as the US?

The EU

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
US states have vastly more autonomy than administrative subdivisions of any other country. When we say the US is actually an alliance rather than a single nation, we're only half kidding

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

haveblue posted:

US states have vastly more autonomy than administrative subdivisions of any other country. When we say the US is actually an alliance rather than a single nation, we're only half kidding

Yeah historically speaking the US can look more like some kind of weird mercantile alliance like the Hanseatic League than a distinct country with a unified culture and legislature. I wan't kidding with the EU comparison.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Failed Imagineer posted:

Much as I'd love it, Bernie will be 87 in 2028 and he's already lost the primary twice and had a heart attack the last time. Sadly, Pritzker might be the best hope there...

The EU

Yeah, I doubt bernie will be running either. I suspect this is his last term probably.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

mobby_6kl posted:

I'm sure some would. Enough to make a difference? :shrug:

I think one thing that makes gentrification much worse in the US are the high property taxes. Which apparently means that if some rich yuppies move into the neighborhood you've lived in since 1953, suddenly the value of your housing goes up and you literally can't afford to pay the taxes to stay there. OTOH my grandfather has lived in the same place since like the 70s and despite the area becoming much more popular and expensive, can still live there just fine on limited income, because the costs of living didn't force him out.

While it varies from state to state and even from local government to local government, property taxes in the US typically aren't excessively high, and there's a lot of potential exemptions. Typically, when property taxes in an area are high, it's because the government in question charges little to no income tax, and thus has to crank up other taxes to fund government services.

But the main thing that doesn't sound right to me is that homeowners in the US love increased property values, because the home is their property and thus the value of their property is going up. If the price of their home rises enough that property taxes become a concern, they can sell their house for a massive profit, or do things like take out equity loans or rent out part of the property. There's lots of ways to make a profit off rising property values in America, it's just a lot more profitable if you don't have to pay taxes on those profits.

The people who get hosed the hardest by increasing property values are renters, who don't own the homes they live in and therefore see zero benefit from increases in the home's value. Instead of taxes, they pay rents - and landlords will invariably respond to rising property values by substantially increasing rents. While the landlords will typically point to property taxes as an excuse for these rent increases, it's a rather unconvincing excuse. Typically, the real motive is simply that the rich yuppies are willing to pay higher rents than the current renters are, and for the landlords that's an opportunity to make more money in exchange for zero extra work.

RBA Starblade
Apr 28, 2008

Going Home.

Games Idiot Court Jester

I always forget that Bernie's older than Joe or Trump

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

It's a rich neighborhood in Long Island with a lot of orthodox Jews.

And a good number of Iranians and other middle eastern Muslims. All the way out on the end is the Kings Point neighborhood. That’s where the Great Gatsby takes place. The old Chrysler mansion is located on the merchant marine academy campus.

It’s not merely rich. It’s old money New York / wealthy Jewish / wealthy Middle Eastern rich. It’s one of the richest places on the planet.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Bar Ran Dun posted:

And a good number of Iranians and other middle eastern Muslims. All the way out on the end is the Kings Point neighborhood. That’s where the Great Gatsby takes place. The old Chrysler mansion is located on the merchant marine academy campus.

It’s not merely rich. It’s old money New York / wealthy Jewish / wealthy Middle Eastern rich. It’s one of the richest places on the planet.

I believe it's also where Jordon Belfort (the basis for The Wolf of Wall Street) was living during his heyday.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

celadon posted:

If your grandfather has been living in the same place since the seventies he’s probably got more rooms in his house than he is using though, right? And economic policies should discourage overconsumption of housing. If this isn’t the case, sorry for assuming, but in general low property taxes not forcing people to downsize is contributing to housing scarcity, at least here in California.
Oh yeah, sure.

But we're talking about not forcing people out of their neighborhoods. Because otherwise gentrification is pretty cool since it means more economic activity and tax revenue to make the place less lovely with better services, infrastructure, lower crime etc.

Main Paineframe posted:

While it varies from state to state and even from local government to local government, property taxes in the US typically aren't excessively high, and there's a lot of potential exemptions. Typically, when property taxes in an area are high, it's because the government in question charges little to no income tax, and thus has to crank up other taxes to fund government services.

But the main thing that doesn't sound right to me is that homeowners in the US love increased property values, because the home is their property and thus the value of their property is going up. If the price of their home rises enough that property taxes become a concern, they can sell their house for a massive profit, or do things like take out equity loans or rent out part of the property. There's lots of ways to make a profit off rising property values in America, it's just a lot more profitable if you don't have to pay taxes on those profits.

The people who get hosed the hardest by increasing property values are renters, who don't own the homes they live in and therefore see zero benefit from increases in the home's value. Instead of taxes, they pay rents - and landlords will invariably respond to rising property values by substantially increasing rents. While the landlords will typically point to property taxes as an excuse for these rent increases, it's a rather unconvincing excuse. Typically, the real motive is simply that the rich yuppies are willing to pay higher rents than the current renters are, and for the landlords that's an opportunity to make more money in exchange for zero extra work.
I remember looking at NJ since that's where my cousin lived and it was like 2.4% which means about $12k a year in taxes on a $500k home. Dunno if that's "excessive" but it seems like quite a lot to just be able to live in property you already own, and might be an issue for someone who bought it when the whole house was like $50k.

People do love their home value increasing obviously, but they only realize that gain if they move out --> gentrification. And yeah sucks for renters too of course.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Bar Ran Dun posted:

And a good number of Iranians and other middle eastern Muslims.
Oh is that where those Iranians who long for the return of the Shah hang out

L. Ron DeSantis
Nov 10, 2009

This LI special election is a unique set of place and circumstances that probably doesn't tell us much about November, but if Pilip wins I'm not looking forward to the countless takes about it.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

L. Ron DeSantis posted:

This LI special election is a unique set of place and circumstances that probably doesn't tell us much about November, but if Pilip wins I'm not looking forward to the countless takes about it.

i think she can win sadly but either way its close. i think NYC is its own special stew mixed with it being a soft red area where all the cops live and alot of them are pissed about migrants being bused in and not enough housing for them and etc etc. i do think the dem probably wins though.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

In the continuing trend of "literally everything becoming partisan" news, views on specific states have dramatically shifted and sorted by partisanship.

California has seen the sharpest division among partisanship. It was previously rated the most popular state for decades, but now 48% of the country says that California "isn't really part of America" and that it is on the decline.

Even the weather and natural environment, two things that basically everyone loved in California, are now polarized with large segments of Republicans says that California has terrible weather and a "worse natural environment than other states."

40% of Republicans say that there is nowhere in California that is a good place to visit and they would stay away.

Over 75% of Republicans now say they would be afraid for their personal safety if they ever went to California.

Similar, but less extreme, patterns are emerging with Democrats and Florida. Florida used to be a widely popular state, but now only about 52% of Americans say that Florida feels like it matches their values.

https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1757406392715972904

Social media is relentless with tiktoks/IG reels of people talking about how CA cities are essentially Mad Max with human feces 6" deep and police sobbing in the corner with their hands tied.

The "not scared bro" crew that's deathly scared of cities is very vocal.

edit: oops!

Jaxyon fucked around with this message at 01:58 on Feb 14, 2024

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Jaxyon posted:

Social media is relentless with tiktoks/IG reels of people talking about how Florida cities are essentially Mad Max with human feces 6" deep and police sobbing in the corner with their hands tied.

The "not scared bro" crew that's deathly scared of cities is very vocal.

Yeah the whole Florida Man meme is neither new nor partisan

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




FlamingLiberal posted:

Oh is that where those Iranians who long for the return of the Shah hang out

Yes, but it’s their kids and grandkids now.

L. Ron DeSantis
Nov 10, 2009

Jaxyon posted:

Social media is relentless with tiktoks/IG reels of people talking about how Florida cities are essentially Mad Max with human feces 6" deep and police sobbing in the corner with their hands tied.

The "not scared bro" crew that's deathly scared of cities is very vocal.

Did you mean California?

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
https://twitter.com/JSweetLI/status/1757537977348079793

This is a bit cryptic.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

L. Ron DeSantis posted:

This LI special election is a unique set of place and circumstances that probably doesn't tell us much about November, but if Pilip wins I'm not looking forward to the countless takes about it.

One of the big Data Pundit takes right now is that Democrats are going to lose because people who don't vote in special elections are Republicans, so you can expect some of those even if Suozzi wins

elhondo
Sep 20, 2012
Grimey Drawer
Polling has deteriorated to the point where polls two hours before voting ends have as much predictive power as a coin flip.

L. Ron DeSantis
Nov 10, 2009

haveblue posted:

Yeah the whole Florida Man meme is neither new nor partisan

I think he meant to say California, but interestingly a big reason Florida Man is a meme, and not, say, Texas Man, is because of the state's open records laws. They were meant to provide transparency into government business but a side effect is that arrest reports and the associated police reports are easily accessible to anyone, and so reporters wanting low hanging fruit for a sensational story know what state to focus on. It's unfortunate because it means if you gently caress up here your worst moment will be a meme forever. I'll grant that we probably do have a disproportianate share of messed up crime stories due to inequality, lack of mental health treatment, easy availability of guns, stuff like flakka and bath salts seeming to come and go here first, stupid sexy gators, etc. but the ratio probably isn't as lopsided as the news would have you believe.

L. Ron DeSantis fucked around with this message at 00:34 on Feb 14, 2024

Kith
Sep 17, 2009

You never learn anything
by doing it right.


Koos Group posted:

The OP of this thread has been updated accordingly.

rip to honk honk guy, he never scored

Nervous
Jan 25, 2005

Why, hello, my little slice of pecan pie.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

"Party Leadership" *waves hands*

I love "party leadership" because it always somehow exists as this source of influence separate from the candidates or elected officials at the top of the party

I'm still waiting for "republican party leadership" to stop Trump

Fwiw, Mitch McConnell may actually be trying behind the scenes. If he is and succeeds, I would consider it the one of two positive things his existence achieved. The other would be leaving us a grave to dance on.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Nervous posted:

Fwiw, Mitch McConnell may actually be trying behind the scenes. If he is and succeeds, I would consider it the one of two positive things his existence achieved. The other would be leaving us a grave to dance on.

and the 2018 farm bill! sure, it was because the hemp industry backed up a dump truck full of money into his driveway, but

mdemone
Mar 14, 2001

Nervous posted:

Fwiw, Mitch McConnell may actually be trying behind the scenes. If he is and succeeds, I would consider it the one of two positive things his existence achieved. The other would be leaving us a grave to dance on.

He had his chance and he blew it in real time. He could have gotten Trump convicted and removed, and chose to whip the other way.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead
he also backed down from torpedoing the first covid relief bill but I'm not sure that entirely counts

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

mobby_6kl posted:

I remember looking at NJ since that's where my cousin lived and it was like 2.4% which means about $12k a year in taxes on a $500k home. Dunno if that's "excessive" but it seems like quite a lot to just be able to live in property you already own, and might be an issue for someone who bought it when the whole house was like $50k.

People do love their home value increasing obviously, but they only realize that gain if they move out --> gentrification. And yeah sucks for renters too of course.

NJ has the highest property taxes in the nation - the national average is less than 1%. The reason NJ's property taxes are so high is because the school system is funded by local property taxes, and NJ spends a lot on education. Remember, property taxes aren't like rent - you're not stuffing someone's pockets for the privilege of living there, you're paying for local public services.

This also means that unlike landlords, the government doesn't have a strong incentive to simply pocket the profits from home valuations going up. While landlords will try to maximize profit, the government has no trouble creating exemptions or lowering rates or capping increases as long as it's

"Yeah sucks for renters too" doesn't cut it. Because renters - who are typically poorer than people who've got sufficient financial means to buy and own their own house - get hosed first and worst by rising home valuations. If you think that paying $12k a year to live in the median-priced NJ home is excessive, then what does that say about the renters currently paying median rents of $35k a year? And when they get forced out by rising prices they don't get to cash out the profits from that increased valuation either. The victims of gentrification are primarily renters, not homeowners.

small butter
Oct 8, 2011

James Garfield posted:

One of the big Data Pundit takes right now is that Democrats are going to lose because people who don't vote in special elections are Republicans, so you can expect some of those even if Suozzi wins

They keep saying this, but historically special election wins have tracked subsequent presidential wins. Unless something has changed in the past few years, this correlation has held true for the 2020 election as well.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1757536756679790707

DRAMA

Edit: Nassau is more GOP leaning. No one has a partisan breakdown yet.

Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 01:14 on Feb 14, 2024

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

Kith posted:

rip to honk honk guy, he never scored

Honk honk

12 years a lurker
Aug 17, 2022

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Good info here.

In addition to housing, would it help if all the good yuppie jobs were spread over the country instead of just the desirable cities? Like, some people would never move to Bumfuck, Midwest US no matter what but it would be a lot more desirable if they got 250K/yr to do so

Happened to some degree already during and after covid with remote work. Letting remote workers take their salaries anywhere they wanted relieved housing pressure on the SF Bay Area especially and increased housing pressure on areas with a combination of good natural amenities (nature and/or weather), relatively lower housing prices, and relatively lower income tax rates (and also as an exception to the general pattern Sacramento). In the short term only shifted who is taking the brunt of rent and housing cost inflation but in the long term should help with overall supply nationally if people and demand are moving from places where new construction is not allowed to places where it is (in the very long term whether stimulating a lot of new construction in Florida is a good idea in the face of climate change is a different question).

Some data from Redfin from back in 2021 at the peak of that shuffling:

https://www.redfin.com/news/homebuyer-migration-2021-rising-home-prices/

https://www.redfin.com/news/homebuyer-incomes-increase-remote-work-2021/

More recently:

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-migration-trends-q1-2023/

12 years a lurker fucked around with this message at 01:45 on Feb 14, 2024

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
NY-03 update. It seems like numbers in Nassau County aren't a slam dunk for the GOP. They were expecting higher margins, especially for actual Election Day voting.

https://twitter.com/JSweetLI/status/1757565382204764513

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

People are gonna read a LOT into a Republican leaning suburb of NYC special election on the day of the worst snow storm NYC has gotten in years.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



L. Ron DeSantis posted:

I think he meant to say California, but interestingly a big reason Florida Man is a meme, and not, say, Texas Man, is because of the state's open records laws. They were meant to provide transparency into government business but a side effect is that arrest reports and the associated police reports are easily accessible to anyone, and so reporters wanting low hanging fruit for a sensational story know what state to focus on. It's unfortunate because it means if you gently caress up here your worst moment will be a meme forever. I'll grant that we probably do have a disproportianate share of messed up crime stories due to inequality, lack of mental health treatment, easy availability of guns, stuff like flakka and bath salts seeming to come and go here first, stupid sexy gators, etc. but the ratio probably isn't as lopsided as the news would have you believe.
Our state leaders are making sure that our sunshine laws will soon only apply to regular people and not them. They conveniently made the selection process for state university presidents confidential when they hired former Sen. Ben Sasse to go run UF.

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Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

L. Ron DeSantis posted:

Did you mean California?

yah

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