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fatherboxx posted:Russia did not really want to become a true pariah state You could have fooled me. Not even kidding. This is playing armchair diplomat, but: much of Russia's behaviour seems not designed for a direct benefit to itself but to forge closer ties with likeminded regimes, and to a certain extent to reassure other rogue states that it does not care about rule of law at home or abroad. What else is left? Bombing a neutral island nation? Hacking the Red Cross and stealing its money? Offering to buy one million tents from China if and only if they're made by Uyghur slave laborers? Invading the DRC for its mineral wealth and threatening nuclear annihilation if anyone tries to intervene? Publicly, explicitly promising to send arms & supplies to any country that throws off the yoke of democracy and installs a junta or dictator? Adding a constitutional amendment stating that Russia reserves the right to, and has an obligation to, kill anyone of any nationality anywhere on Earth who criticizes Putin? That seems like hyperbole but in some cases it's just the next step. And in others it's already the case in some form to some degree.
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Feb 16, 2024 17:11
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fatherboxx posted:Well Russia did not really want to become a true pariah state so keeping polical prisoners (especially of Navany stature) alive is an important part of that. My provisional take is that this is Patrushev cleaning house ahead of the election, so the remaining Russian opposition doesn't get any ideas about being too disruptive. Which doesn't mean this can't backfire, at least outside of Russia.
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Feb 16, 2024 17:40
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How could it backfire outside of russia? The putin stans in the "global south" don't give a poo poo how many people he murders and everyone else is already pissed off at him.
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Feb 16, 2024 18:14
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mobby_6kl posted:How could it backfire outside of russia? The putin stans in the "global south" don't give a poo poo how many people he murders and everyone else is already pissed off at him. Those outside may care more about death of a politician than a bunch of civilians in towns they never heard of.
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Feb 16, 2024 18:17
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A common explanation for a strongman state doing things that appear nonsensical is that either a) they are actions intended to resolve or address internal narrative or actual conflict purposes, which are more immediate to the leadership (see, in this case, Hannibal Rex's explanation), or b) there's been a misinformation feedback loop for the leadership such that they are buying their own propaganda and increasingly taking actions that are detached from reality. These two patterns are also mutually reinforcing, especially when there's greater state control of media.
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Feb 17, 2024 02:24
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mobby_6kl posted:How could it backfire outside of russia? The putin stans in the "global south" don't give a poo poo how many people he murders and everyone else is already pissed off at him. It might be on the nose enough to finally get Ukraine aid past the Trumpists. But I'm not holding my breath.
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Feb 17, 2024 02:50
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Hard-core trumpists are probably pro-murdering-our-political-opponents, see January 6th 2021.
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Feb 17, 2024 02:55
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Discendo Vox posted:A common explanation for a strongman state doing things that appear nonsensical is that either a) they are actions intended to resolve or address internal narrative or actual conflict purposes, which are more immediate to the leadership (see, in this case, Hannibal Rex's explanation), or b) there's been a misinformation feedback loop for the leadership such that they are buying their own propaganda and increasingly taking actions that are detached from reality. These two patterns are also mutually reinforcing, especially when there's greater state control of media. This is a helpful contribution. But I think people are sleeping on my pitch that it's not nonsensical at all. They didn't expect to suffer net consequences. And might even have expected a PR *gain* with all the wrong people as a side benefit. Because at least some of the evidence available to them can be seen as suggesting that was the case. Not saying that's the right interpretation but I don't think it's being considered as it maybe deserves.
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Feb 17, 2024 08:38
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Supposedly Navalny's body has been found in a morgue near the Arctic Circle with bruising on the head and chest. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/alexei-navalny-body-missing-death-russia-putin-prison-b2498156.html quote:Alexei Navalny death latest: Putin critic’s ‘bruised body seen in morgue’ as family demands it is returned
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Feb 19, 2024 08:26
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Mr. Apollo posted:Supposedly Navalny's body has been found in a morgue near the Arctic Circle with bruising on the head and chest. Seems quite probable that the body would have livor mortis. Livor Mortis - an overview www.sciencedirect.com posted:## Immediate Postmortem Changes More from Wikipedia. Be warned if you copy and paste this URL; there is a picture of a dead body illustrating this phenomenon. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Livor_mortis en.m.wikipedia.org posted:Livor mortis (Latin: līvor – "bluish color, bruise", mortis – "of death"), postmortem lividity (Latin: postmortem – "after death", lividity – "black and blue"), hypostasis (Greek: ὑπό, hypo, meaning "under, beneath"; στάσις, stasis, meaning "a standing"[1][2]) or suggillation, is the second stage of death and one of the signs of death. It is a settling of the blood in the lower, or dependent, portion of the body postmortem, causing a purplish red discoloration of the skin. When the heart stops functioning and is no longer agitating the blood, heavy red blood cells sink through the serum by action of gravity. The blood travels faster in warmer conditions and slower in colder conditions. e: BTW, where does it say head and chest? I cannot find those words. mawarannahr fucked around with this message at 08:44 on Feb 19, 2024 |
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Feb 19, 2024 08:42
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mawarannahr posted:e: BTW, where does it say head and chest? I cannot find those words. https://www.politico.eu/article/navalny-died-from-sudden-death-syndrome-mother-told/ quote:Navalny died from ‘sudden death syndrome,’ mother is told
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Feb 19, 2024 09:05
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Mr. Apollo posted:Some reports are mentioning that. Thank you for the link. I couldn't find that information in the original link.
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Feb 19, 2024 09:11
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mawarannahr posted:Seems quite probable that the body would have livor mortis. Livor mortis can look like bruises, but bruises don't typically look like livor mortis, at least in my experience. I would hope a paramedic would be able to tell the difference. I'm not suggesting *anything* about this particular case because it's 100% assured that the kremlin and others are already flooding the infosphere with conflicting and incompatible stories to make it impossible for anyone to make up their mind about anything, and honestly it's exausting (which is the point).
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Feb 19, 2024 12:29
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I came across some analysis I can't find just now in a not ridiculous source saying that Navalny's death might bring Saudi Arabia and the UAE closer to Russia, where they have (apparently and surprisingly) been headed recently, and away from the West. It was in a fairly serious periodical, although if it weren't for the mention of the UAE I'd have presumed it's a jab at Saudi Arabia's assassination of Jamal Khashoggi. (Has the UAE done something similar lately?) I absolutely don't want to be right here, but I am not seeing any counter-evidence to my spitballing that 'Russia acted entirely rationally. It didn't expect any serious pushback. In fact with such actions it expects a few countries to admire/fear them enough to switch over to them or at least hedge their bets.' Bright Bart fucked around with this message at 11:46 on Feb 20, 2024 |
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Feb 20, 2024 11:41
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Bright Bart posted:I came across some analysis I can't find just now in a not ridiculous source saying that Navalny's death might bring Saudi Arabia and the UAE closer to Russia, where they have (apparently and surprisingly) been headed recently, and away from the West. It's rational in the sense of 'might as well finish the job', and clearly Putin doesn't care about any new sanctions, but I struggle to see why UAE or any other country in the region would care one way or another about Navalny's death for it to influence their foreign policy.
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Feb 20, 2024 13:08
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Paladinus posted:It's rational in the sense of 'might as well finish the job', and clearly Putin doesn't care about any new sanctions, but I struggle to see why UAE or any other country in the region would care one way or another about Navalny's death for it to influence their foreign policy. I don't think it's the death of Navalny in particular or the hit to the already weak opposition in general so much as naked aggression and flaunting of laws and standards is very often seen as strength. And while the countries that have switched sides to Russia in Africa almost certainly did so due to anti-colonialist (lol!) sentiment there is the idea that dictators would rather work with other dictators all other things being equal. So in this case the idea is that an oligarchy with little respect for either democracy or human rights will be a strong ally to others like it. Which is why it would be surprising since it seems both the UAE and Saudi Arabia were moving away from this and were both certainly trying to seem like there were. So while Russia wouldn't have expected this little side bonus, it probably wouldn't have expected the opposite: that those in its camp would get disgusted and switch in the opposite direction. The whole thing is a joke when you consider how Russia treats its allies. There's the Polish saying (that, admittedly, does ignore lots of history) that you live better and longer as an enemy of the US than as an ally of Russia. I don't know either the rulers or even the average person in the country can truly see anyone else as an ally on equal footing.
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Feb 20, 2024 14:09
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We have round 2 of farmers protests in Poland. I'll have to use my "work from home" days tomorrow since they intend to block the one convenient way to work. I hope they stop blockades by the time I'm leaving work today..
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Feb 20, 2024 14:57
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Like, not to be that guy, but why do we have to assume putin killed navalny as some sort of 4d chess move, and not just that he threw the guy in an awful prison system and had him mistreated and probably tortured? I mean, putin still had the man killed, but I don't know why we should assume that the timing was planned.
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Feb 20, 2024 15:26
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Like many mafia-like figures, Putin avoids a lot of personal responsibility for the atrocities on his behalf by attributing them to the system that he controls or to individuals that he commands. Placing the emphasis on his responsibility obviates a lot of that.
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Feb 20, 2024 15:32
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I'm not suggesting anything about his responsibility, it's clear that the responsibility is on him. I'm suggesting that the conversation shouldn't immediately leap to assuming that putin is a mastermind and it's all part of the plan.
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Feb 20, 2024 15:52
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True, but I am not sure that having someone in custody murdered is much of a "plan" requiring much "masterminding".
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Feb 20, 2024 16:06
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I mean, its part of the MO. If someone dies of head trauma at the house of basically anyone else, you think it could be an accident. If they die of head trauma at the house of a guy known to bash heads in, and the victim was an enemy of their, it's not looking all that likely.
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Feb 20, 2024 16:10
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I think what Compte de Saint-Germain is getting at isn't whether or not Putin is responsible for the death (which they agree, he is) but rather the motivation for the death being more mundane and internal (ex: just tying up loose ends) rather than trying to virtue signal to KSA and UAE.
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Feb 20, 2024 16:23
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I believe Putin plans to stay in power, and to remove anyone standing in his way ( I know)seriously though it's impossible to tell what exactly happened to Navalnyi because no impartial autopsy will be allowed. But he was a dead man the moment he returned to Russia.
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Feb 20, 2024 16:34
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burnishedfume posted:I think what Compte de Saint-Germain is getting at isn't whether or not Putin is responsible for the death (which they agree, he is) but rather the motivation for the death being more mundane and internal (ex: just tying up loose ends) rather than trying to virtue signal to KSA and UAE. Could be something in between the two. Navalny is of sufficient import that I’m assuming there was at least a tacit understanding that somebody high up wanted this to happen. That said, the message could be targeted at internal elites: between this and the cheese-and-coup monger plane crash, it seems very clear what happens to anyone who challenges Putin and loses.
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Feb 20, 2024 18:29
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He certainly didn't prevent anything from happening to Navalny because he was worried about the fallout. At "best" he put him in a position to die or be killed by someone who thinks it'll get them brownie points, and thought 'Well if it happens who cares? Maybe it'll even work in my favour'. At worst, he himself explicitly ordered the torture and killing, with no euphamisms.
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Feb 20, 2024 19:40
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burnishedfume posted:I think what Compte de Saint-Germain is getting at isn't whether or not Putin is responsible for the death (which they agree, he is) but rather the motivation for the death being more mundane and internal (ex: just tying up loose ends) rather than trying to virtue signal to KSA and UAE. Yes, thank you, I wish I had been more clear. EDIT: Also, this is a guy who recently had a mercenary coup. Assuming this has more do with THE GREAT GAME rather than some complex domestic situation that's basically impenetrable to outsiders. Comte de Saint-Germain fucked around with this message at 21:33 on Feb 20, 2024 |
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Feb 20, 2024 21:30
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it's never THE GREAT GAME unless your question is literally "is this what retired 1800s British military officers faff on about in pubs to make their foreign escapades sound cool?"
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Feb 20, 2024 23:45
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Yesterday, it came out that Platforma Obywatelska paid around 300,000 PLN to a notorious Twitter troll to attack other parties on the scene, most notably PO's current coalition partners. It's a bit of a poo poo show.
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Feb 21, 2024 10:09
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but i thought they're the good guys!!
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Feb 21, 2024 10:14
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"It's okay when our guys do it!" - silni razem, probably
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Feb 21, 2024 10:36
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Bright Bart posted:He certainly didn't prevent anything from happening to Navalny because he was worried about the fallout. Putin promoted deputy chief of Russia's prisons days after Navalny's death Putin does this every time his regime commits a major crime, whether it’s atrocities in Ukraine or repressions at home: he promotes or awards the state officials responsible.
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Feb 21, 2024 11:26
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 It's impressive how farmers are always on the wrong side every single time they protest regardless of country.
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Feb 21, 2024 11:52
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Rich land owners embracing reactionary politics under the guise of being regular, salt of the earth working men? Colour me surprised
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Feb 21, 2024 11:56
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armpit_enjoyer posted:Yesterday, it came out that Platforma Obywatelska paid around 300,000 PLN to a notorious Twitter troll to attack other parties on the scene, most notably PO's current coalition partners. It's a bit of a poo poo show. Well I'm disappointed if not entirely surprised. Also, remember how I said I never got a welfare payment because they said they were out of money and Mokotow swooped in with articles saying it's not just my part of the country, it's a known problem, and that the payments are still owed and have to be made eventually? Well MOPS is getting pretty tired of me calling each week. The line is always the same: There was no money in January for food supplement payments, for anyone; this payment was missed and as the month has ended it will not be being sent out; that this has happened in previous years and if they got rescue funds by the end of the month in question they sent the payments late otherwise they just didn't get sent at all and this year that's the case. Maybe, maybe someone will force them to make the payments. If the news is correct in that the have to be made eventually. But the news often gets things wrong now only here in Poland. In Canada there was talk of a huge stimulus payment last year but it turned out they mistook the amount it would be if the stimulus covered all year and was given all at once, instead of monthly twice. One paper made the error and the others just ran with it. And in any case if they made payments this very moment, it would be a month and a week late and that's unacceptable. Maybe not all countries in the EU, but I gather even some other poor ones like Greece were this to happen now there would be political instability and talks of an economic collapse. But then the world is interested in a government's ability to pay its external creditors, not what it owes its citizens. The US could stop paying out any Medicare any it would retain its creditworthiness. Gaah, it's too poor weather for this. And now that I'm dwelling on unpleasant things, I am reminded that I won't find affordable rye flakes anytime soon.
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Feb 21, 2024 16:47
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The Russian election ads are something else https://twitter.com/POMAHMOBA/status/1760700317585272900?t=vo74yyoTV_q-hU6EbYWtRw&s=19 (This one is presented as if produced by Communist Party candidate but no one is buying it since the style of state-sponsored agitprop is too recognizable) Last one (accompanying constitutional amendments to give Putin more terms) had a typical old dude played by a famous comedic actor being suddenly drafted in the army so uhhh https://youtu.be/CmWECmoujrM?si=uY55Hzohw-27Vsi8
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Feb 23, 2024 10:23
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fatherboxx posted:The Russian election ads are something else
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Feb 23, 2024 14:44
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They keep making the same thing over and over again, lmao. A regular Russian, or in some cases German, family suddenly faces the threat of GENDERS and GAY (both are NAZI). What's weird about that new one is that usually gender gays also take all your money, but here the family seems to be doing just fine. I guess the message has shifted to 'you must choose between a nice breakfast and not being turned trans against your will'.
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Feb 23, 2024 14:51
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I, too, am afraid of being turned German by the Gender Nazis. Truly a fate worse than death. Honestly, I find myself confused by conservative propaganda. All their grand ideas are an incoherent mess of random words and ideas and vague fears.
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Feb 23, 2024 15:01
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Paladinus posted:They keep making the same thing over and over again, lmao. A regular Russian, or in some cases German, family suddenly faces the threat of GENDERS and GAY (both are NAZI). What's weird about that new one is that usually gender gays also take all your money, but here the family seems to be doing just fine. I guess the message has shifted to 'you must choose between a nice breakfast and not being turned trans against your will'.
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Feb 23, 2024 15:05
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