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Sir Kodiak posted:How does that poll support that idea? I think that idea is likely true, but I don't see how that poll is evidence for it. it's pretty likely that any candidate that the dems can muster in a forced replacement or emergency will not be able to garner the same voter enthusiasm that biden is likely to carry into a general election that's not an endorsement of biden as much as it is a recognition of what the dnc does not offer, but it helps paint a clearer picture of why a whole "biden stands down" scenario is really unlikely
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 21:44 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 08:45 |
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Charliegrs posted:You do know really dumb people can be the offspring of diamond mine owners, NY real estate barons, famous actors/musicians, CEOs of oil companies etc right? And statistically speaking those types of offspring have a huge advantage in life and usually end up wealthy themselves no matter how incredibly dumb they are. Where do you think the term "failson" came from? Being smart doesn't mean you'll be rich. And being dumb doesn't mean you'll be poor. I thought he was being a bit tongue and cheek in a meritocracy sort of way. But maybe I'm just seeing what I want to see (for the record I think randomly flaming the good professor for... helping old folks(?) is too impotent and misdirected to worthy of much response, but selec otoh had some good points). I do think looking at things as a fight is... accurate? Beneficial? And both political parties seem willing to invoke coming chaos one way or another (in the case of the dems it's more "if we don't win they will unleash chaos"). BRJurgis fucked around with this message at 01:53 on Feb 17, 2024 |
# ? Feb 16, 2024 21:50 |
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Staluigi posted:it's pretty likely that any candidate that the dems can muster in a forced replacement or emergency will not be able to garner the same voter enthusiasm that biden is likely to carry into a general election All the same it hurts the idea that the low enthusiasm on Biden's right flank can be easily fixed by replacing him with some younger, more vital Democrat.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 21:54 |
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zoux posted:He's going to wring every cent out of the RNC coffers once Lara is made co-chair. It’s amazing to me that they’re all (the GOP) just going to watch too.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 21:57 |
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Staluigi posted:it's pretty likely that any candidate that the dems can muster in a forced replacement or emergency will not be able to garner the same voter enthusiasm that biden is likely to carry into a general election How does that poll show that? The margin of error on it is 2.7%. Kamala Harris is within 1% of Biden in the poll. If the poll is meaningful evidence of what voter enthusiasm will be in November—which I'm skeptical of—that would seem to suggest that she'd garner the same enthusiasm as Biden within the degree of precision the poll provides. To be clear, I'm not suggesting Biden standing down is likely. It's not. It's very unlikely because Biden gets to decide and he wants to keep being president, which is a larger factor than polling nine months out. Anyone arguing he should stand down is wasting their time. But if Biden vs Trump polling is not predictive this far out—which seems true and we keep being reminded of every time a poll shows Biden losing—surely Gretchen Whitmer vs Trump is no more predictive of what that race would look like.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 21:57 |
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Killer robot posted:All the same it hurts the idea that the low enthusiasm on Biden's right flank can be easily fixed by replacing him with some younger, more vital Democrat. yeah i think for that they need replacements which don't powerfully stretch the applicability of the title "more vital" once upon a time it feels obvious that they were setting up kamala to be that More Vital inheritor but everything between then and now showed that she was never gonna have that juice
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 21:58 |
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Main Paineframe posted:If society breaks down to the point where people are hiding out in bunkers, cash no longer has value, law enforcement no longer exists, and the state no longer possesses the monopoly on violence, I think most people are going to be too busy with actually important problems to worry about finding and attacking billionaire bunkers. You gotta get after it the moment they get in there. Presuming they have some system for advance warning, the model you want to operate in a big party. Like a big rave we’re holding in the wilderness that also has some fun work you can put in. It’s going to take planning and coordination for sure, but if the collapse is upon us, I think a big collective party that is also about taking revenge for the collapse might work out.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 22:09 |
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Staluigi posted:once upon a time it feels obvious that they were setting up kamala to be that More Vital inheritor but everything between then and now showed that she was never gonna have that juice She had to drop out of the primary before any votes were cast because nobody liked her; she doesn't even have anti-juice because a juice/anti-juice reaction would generate energy
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 22:10 |
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Byzantine posted:She had to drop out of the primary before any votes were cast because nobody liked her; she doesn't even have anti-juice because a juice/anti-juice reaction would generate energy Lol yes Its weird because she's not the "charisma void" template of the right, she goes about being thoroughly Ain't Got It in different ways
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 22:16 |
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All that poll really says is people don't have as much recognition of the non-Biden non-Harris people. Note that Trump does not actually get much more votes against any of the candidates. Harris has essentially the same recognition as Biden + Trump and she's running 1 point behind Biden.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 22:17 |
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Byzantine posted:She had to drop out of the primary before any votes were cast because nobody liked her; she doesn't even have anti-juice because a juice/anti-juice reaction would generate energy I apologize if this is a risky post that leads to relitigating 2020, but it was my understanding that the Biden campaign was pretty set on selecting a woman for the VP spot and then whittled the list down to Harris. It could easily have been Warren or Klobuchar or Whitmer. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/us/politics/amy-klobuchar-biden-vice-president.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/13/us/politics/biden-harris.html If those horrible cops hadn't killed George Floyd, the choice might have been very different.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 22:17 |
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Again, the point of it is that there have been about 1000 think pieces about why Biden should drop out but there is no evidence that voters want a different candidate. If one of these folks were in the primaries against him would those numbers change? Probably! But there's nothing you can point to, no Bernie-like figure racking up small donations and packing venues with excited supporters as an obvious replacement that the Elites at the DNC Weather Control Center are blocking from becoming the nominee. People are just "eh, someone other than Biden" because fully like a third of the electorate hasn't internalized that it's going to be a 2020 rematch and is only half paying attention.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 22:20 |
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Staluigi posted:Lol yes
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 22:20 |
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zoux posted:Again, the point of it is that there have been about 1000 think pieces about why Biden should drop out but there is no evidence that voters want a different candidate. If one of these folks were in the primaries against him would those numbers change? Probably! But there's nothing you can point to, no Bernie-like figure racking up small donations and packing venues with excited supporters as an obvious replacement that the Elites at the DNC Weather Control Center are blocking from becoming the nominee. People are just "eh, someone other than Biden" because fully like a third of the electorate hasn't internalized that it's going to be a 2020 rematch and is only half paying attention. I think it's pretty clear that if anyone ran against Biden, they would be persona non grata as far as the DNC or Democrats are concerned. It's essentially enforcing self-censorship (a very timely topic)
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 22:23 |
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Even expressing concern about Biden in the gentlest possible way gets you blasted, hard to see how an organic grassroots support of a replacement is met with anything other than scorched earth tactics. Even the putative replacement candidate would likely disavow any such movement unless they were like a billion percent sure it was gonna work cause they could get implicated in anti Biden sentiment through inaction.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 22:26 |
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It feels weird to ask this but how much of this whole "no primary to the incumbent" sentiment is also couched in the disaster that was the 1980 election when you had people like Ted Kennedy try to primary Carter and that, among many other things, eventually leading to 12 years of GOP control of the executive branch? Granted that was over 40 years ago and I don't know how that would factor in at all, other than a lot of higher-up Democrats back then are still around.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 22:28 |
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koolkal posted:I think it's pretty clear that if anyone ran against Biden, they would be persona non grata as far as the DNC or Democrats are concerned. It's essentially enforcing self-censorship (a very timely topic) They aren't polling candidates. They are polling voters and voters don't show a preference for any candidate that would improve on Biden's polling. Is the polling accurate? Who knows, but that's the evidence we have to work with and it doesn't support the idea that the people are clamoring for a certain candidate. And if there isn't a different candidate, then there's no reason to replace the incumbent loving president on the ticket.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 22:29 |
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She emerged fully formed, ready made for anti drug PSA's, programmed to promise that events shall be Looked Into, from behind a podium. The Galaborn was here, a decade too late for DARE
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 22:35 |
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Angry_Ed posted:It feels weird to ask this but how much of this whole "no primary to the incumbent" sentiment is also couched in the disaster that was the 1980 election when you had people like Ted Kennedy try to primary Carter and that, among many other things, eventually leading to 12 years of GOP control of the executive branch? There was also Reagan trying to primary Ford in 76, and considering how close that election was it probably was a factor. Those two are the only time we had serious attempts, both ended in losses for the incumbent.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 22:36 |
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Angry_Ed posted:It feels weird to ask this but how much of this whole "no primary to the incumbent" sentiment is also couched in the disaster that was the 1980 election when you had people like Ted Kennedy try to primary Carter and that, among many other things, eventually leading to 12 years of GOP control of the executive branch? If you wanted to mount a challenge to Joe Biden you would have to start last year and aside from the fact you're trying to primary the incumbent President, you have another problem, you'd have to push Harris out of the way too. I've had my friends ask my why not Gavin Newsome or (Younger Democrat Here) go and run and you basically would cause a Democratic civil war and could cause the party to be even weaker with a Trump run on the horizon. The narrative would of been awful relitigating 2020 and Dems in Disarray, who has the heart of the party, why are the dumping Joe Biden, ect. And if you are the would be challenger, whose giving you the time of day or funding to do this? The safer play for 2028 hopefuls is to build now and if a lane forms in the next two years.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 22:36 |
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zoux posted:They aren't polling candidates. They are polling voters and voters don't show a preference for any candidate that would improve on Biden's polling. Is the polling accurate? Who knows, but that's the evidence we have to work with and it doesn't support the idea that the people are clamoring for a certain candidate. And if there isn't a different candidate, then there's no reason to replace the incumbent loving president on the ticket. Yeah, I can't tell you how many times I've had the following conversation with other people irl: "Biden's too old, he needs to step aside and let someone else be the nominee." "Okay, how about Kamala? She'd be the logical second choice." "Ew, not her, I don't like her." "Okay, how about Gavin Newsom then?" "Ew, not him either." "Okay, how about Dean Phillips? He's actually running in the primary." "No, I don't like him either." "Okay then, who would you like to see as the Dem nominee?" ""
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 22:41 |
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zoux posted:Again, the point of it is that there have been about 1000 think pieces about why Biden should drop out but there is no evidence that voters want a different candidate. If one of these folks were in the primaries against him would those numbers change? Probably! But there's nothing you can point to, no Bernie-like figure racking up small donations and packing venues with excited supporters as an obvious replacement that the Elites at the DNC Weather Control Center are blocking from becoming the nominee. People are just "eh, someone other than Biden" because fully like a third of the electorate hasn't internalized that it's going to be a 2020 rematch and is only half paying attention. Sure, I agree with all these conclusions. That poll is just lousy evidence for them. As someone else pointed out, it's basically functioning as a poll of name recognition and party id.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 22:48 |
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DaveWoo posted:Yeah, I can't tell you how many times I've had the following conversation with other people irl:
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 22:57 |
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One of the few politicians actually older than Biden.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 23:03 |
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It is easy to see why there is not a lot of spontaneous support for any one candidate when the background radiation of the last several years has been ‘any opposition to Biden is support for Trump’. If Biden was voluntarily stepping down for health issues the entire political climate would shift and the polling would reflect that.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 23:04 |
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zoux posted:They aren't polling candidates. They are polling voters and voters don't show a preference for any candidate that would improve on Biden's polling. Is the polling accurate? Who knows, but that's the evidence we have to work with and it doesn't support the idea that the people are clamoring for a certain candidate. And if there isn't a different candidate, then there's no reason to replace the incumbent loving president on the ticket. And as I already pointed out, when you look at who specifically is unhappy with Biden, the overwhelmingly likely possibility if it did happen is Biden being primaried from the right. As someone who would not like to see the Democratic Party move right I find the lack of serious primary challenge a relief.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 23:04 |
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GoutPatrol posted:There was also Reagan trying to primary Ford in 76, and considering how close that election was it probably was a factor. Those two are the only time we had serious attempts, both ended in losses for the incumbent. Don't forget Eugene McCarthy's performance in New Hampshire in 1968 pushing LBJ into retirement. The Dems lost. I guess the big pattern here is that if you have someone primarying the incumbent and it's an actual challenge, things aren't looking good for the party in power.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 23:07 |
I like Duckworth for 2028.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 23:07 |
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Staluigi posted:She emerged fully formed... You think she just fell out of s coconut tree? She exists in the context of all in which she lives and what came before her.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 23:08 |
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Eric Cantonese posted:I apologize if this is a risky post that leads to relitigating 2020, but it was my understanding that the Biden campaign was pretty set on selecting a woman for the VP spot and then whittled the list down to Harris. It could easily have been Warren or Klobuchar or Whitmer. It was pre South Carolina and Biden was dying on the vine. Clyburn demanded it and Biden needed Clyburn’s network to survive SC. That’s it. Classic democratic horse trading. https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/11/07/politics/clyburn-biden-black-woman-running-mate-cnntv/index.html
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 23:08 |
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Civilized Fishbot posted:You think she just fell out of s coconut tree? She exists in the context of all in which she lives and what came before her. Speaking of which, I was wondering... does anyone here know what the bolded part means? Remarks by Vice President Harris at the Munich Security Conference | Munich, Germany | The White House www.whitehouse.gov - Fri, 16 Feb 2024 posted:Hotel Bayerischer Hof
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 23:41 |
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zoux posted:
So assuming that happens, what would the consequences of this be for the election? I would assume that this would be disastrous for the downticket races, right? I vaguely recall reading that the local GOP offices are really low on cash right now, so Trump embezzling the RNC coffers at this point would basically lead to ceding a lot of local elections to the dems, wouldn't it?
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 23:43 |
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celadon posted:If Biden was voluntarily stepping down for health issues the entire political climate would shift and the polling would reflect that. This would not change how people feel about Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris. I doubt either would win an open primary.
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# ? Feb 16, 2024 23:52 |
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Bar Ran Dun posted:This would not change how people feel about Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris. I doubt either would win an open primary. What makes you think that about Newsom? I am not as familiar with the guy, is it just the california stink that you think would drag him down nationally? Or does he have a nasty side to compliment his used car salesman looks?
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# ? Feb 17, 2024 00:11 |
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Dull Fork posted:What makes you think that about Newsom? I am not as familiar with the guy, is it just the california stink that you think would drag him down nationally? Or does he have a nasty side to compliment his used car salesman looks? He’s unctuous. He was married to Kimberly Guilfoyle for five years. His behavior during covid. There’s no hint of substance, inspiration, or transformational leadership in the man.
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# ? Feb 17, 2024 00:16 |
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mawarannahr posted:Speaking of which, I was wondering... does anyone here know what the bolded part means? Afrobeats is a style of music born out of Africa that is going mainstream (they featured it at the Grammies) and she’s saying that kind of cultural exchange is good?
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# ? Feb 17, 2024 00:19 |
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Dull Fork posted:What makes you think that about Newsom? I am not as familiar with the guy, is it just the california stink that you think would drag him down nationally? Or does he have a nasty side to compliment his used car salesman looks? I do think Newsom would have a tough time overcoming the attacks as a ~CaLiFoRnIA lIBeRaL~ and you can just see the ads showing shot after shot of homeless people shooting up and defecating. Is that his fault? No of course not, but the perception would be a real problem. As someone posted here yesterday or maybe the other day, an awful lot of Americans have negative views of California and while that's mostly Republicans it probably includes a decent number of independents too. e: he's not just governor of CA, he was mayor of SF albeit when the city was booming during the honeymoon period of big tech.
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# ? Feb 17, 2024 00:19 |
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Sure but "transformational energy" got us 8 years of Obama who was perhaps the least transformational President of my lifetime.
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# ? Feb 17, 2024 00:20 |
Bar Ran Dun posted:He’s unctuous. Now that is an insult primed to return to prominence
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# ? Feb 17, 2024 00:21 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 08:45 |
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Honestly I think the dream Dem ticket would be Whitmer/Beshear or vice versa. Maybe in 2028 if we still have elections.
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# ? Feb 17, 2024 00:23 |