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Killer robot posted:Probably a good choice both in hindsight and the moment, but since 2016 everyone who yawned loudly at the idea of voting for the courts used it as an unearned vindication. I do think it's funny that all the people earnestly (and to be fair, correctly) arguing that Manchin could never be controlled by the executive will turn around and believe that President Girlboss would've gotten Big Mitch to approve her court picks, somehow.
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Feb 21, 2024 20:10
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zoux posted:I think that if COVID had killed children at the same rate as it did old people, instead of not at all, we would've seen a massively different response here and world wide. . Maybe a different response. Thinking it would have been a better response seems . . .optimistic.
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Feb 21, 2024 20:11
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zoux posted:The Alabama Supreme Court made a boneheaded and unprecedented ruling that "Frozen embryos are children" yesterday -meaning anyone who destroys one is liable for harming a child - and the consequences have been immediate: Holy poo poo that's bad. For some people IVF is the only way to have children (including M/F partners in many instances). I feel so bad for people who were going through that who suddenly had everything dropped in front of them. It's not an easy process to go through, especially the women who need multiple injections over the course of months.
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Feb 21, 2024 20:12
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Sax Mortar posted:Holy poo poo that's bad. For some people IVF is the only way to have children (including M/F partners in many instances). Yeah, that's why the conventional wisdom was that IVF is politically untouchable. No one, we thought, would want to pick a fight with the demographic "couples desperate to have children". But I guess in 2024 there are enough people publicly taking the position that God decides who has children and the people involved do not, for the court to dare to rule this way
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Feb 21, 2024 20:18
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haveblue posted:Yeah, that's why the conventional wisdom was that IVF is politically untouchable. No one, we thought, would want to pick a fight with the demographic "couples desperate to have children". But I guess in 2024 there are enough people publicly taking the position that God decides who has children and the people involved do not, for the court to dare to rule this way I'm sure many members of the court are happy with this outcome, but it is also most likely the "correct" ruling because the Alabama legislature, Governor, and voters implemented both a constitutional amendment and several laws that explicitly require this. They did this back when Roe was still the law of the land, so it didn't have any impact at the time, but it was a statewide ballot measure and several different bills passed overwhelmingly by the legislature that led to this outcome for the state.
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Feb 21, 2024 20:21
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:He cares because he thinks pence betrayed him and he plans to run for a third term after this one (he is delusional). He will pick someone with absolute loyalty. My bet, seriously, is Ivanka. Eh, Ivanka and/or Jared Kushner have said they want nothing to do with politics any more (I think both have said it). Ivanka mostly wants to go back to being an under-the-radar socialite, Kushner wants to play financier with the Saudis. Reading between the lines, I think a certain amount of that is also just wanting to distance themselves from Trump's public image.
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Feb 21, 2024 20:23
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Shooting Blanks posted:Eh, Ivanka and/or Jared Kushner have said they want nothing to do with politics any more (I think both have said it). Ivanka mostly wants to go back to being an under-the-radar socialite, Kushner wants to play financier with the Saudis. Reading between the lines, I think a certain amount of that is also just wanting to distance themselves from Trump's public image. Kushner doesn't want to finish off his plan for Peace in the Middle East?
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Feb 21, 2024 20:25
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Kith posted:did this actually happen anywhere? quote:https://usun.usmission.gov/remarks-...he-middle-east/ quote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m27NBwMzk2M
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Feb 21, 2024 20:27
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I'm sure many members of the court are happy with this outcome, but it is also most likely the "correct" ruling because the Alabama legislature, Governor, and voters implemented both a constitutional amendment and several laws that explicitly require this. Is this a deal where they passed a personhood law that covered embryos, or were embryos specifically targeted in legislation?
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Feb 21, 2024 20:31
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Byzantine posted:I do think it's funny that all the people earnestly (and to be fair, correctly) arguing that Manchin could never be controlled by the executive will turn around and believe that President Girlboss would've gotten Big Mitch to approve her court picks, somehow. Alternatively, in this hypothetical alternate timeline where the Democratic candidate did better in 2016 or the GOP candidate did worse, the GOP might have lost more Senate seats during the 45th president's administration, allowing Dems to take the Senate and hold votes on Hillary's candidates. Alternatively, Mitch might have seen his Supreme Court gambit failing to produce results, and settled for a moderate compromise candidate, rather than risking losing the Senate to Dems without any way to obstruct them from appointing their dream candidates. Alt-history is rarely a genuinely productive avenue, but it's not difficult to come up with ways in which things could perhaps have gone differently if things were different!
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Feb 21, 2024 20:33
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Byzantine posted:I do think it's funny that all the people earnestly (and to be fair, correctly) arguing that Manchin could never be controlled by the executive will turn around and believe that President Girlboss would've gotten Big Mitch to approve her court picks, somehow. This doesn't really seem to be a response to anything I said, but if you intended it to be, partisan difference in people voting for the courts is what got Republicans the Senate back from a Democratic supermajority even more than what got them the White House. A McConnell Senate was not a foregone conclusion in 2010 nor was it an irreversible inevitability in 2016.
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Feb 21, 2024 20:36
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zoux posted:Is this a deal where they passed a personhood law that covered embryos, or were embryos specifically targeted in legislation? They passed a constitutional amendment via ballot measure in 2018 that specifically covered "unborn children" under all Alabama law: quote:Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, as amended; to declare and otherwise affirm that it is the public policy of this state to recognize and support the sanctity of unborn life and the rights of unborn children, most importantly the right to life in all manners and measures appropriate and lawful; and to provide that the constitution of this state does not protect the right to abortion or require the funding of abortion. Additionally, they have several laws specifying that they apply to unborn children regardless of circumstance and the wrongful death law specifically says it applies to "unborn children, regardless of location," which indicates that fertilized embryos are considered "unborn children" under Alabama law. These have all been on the books for a while, but they couldn't enforce them before and nobody challenged them to confirm that definition until recently.
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Feb 21, 2024 20:37
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:They passed a constitutional amendment via ballot measure in 2018 that specifically covered "unborn children" under all Alabama law: Here's Nikki Haley agreeing with all that, while noting that her own son was conceived via IVF, apparently not realizing that now providers are not going to be willing to assume the legal liability and will stop offering those services. She is literally supporting a ruling that would've had the effect of her son not existing. https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1760387207020286457
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Feb 21, 2024 20:41
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zoux posted:Here's Nikki Haley agreeing with all that, while noting that her own son was conceived via IVF, apparently not realizing that now providers are not going to be willing to assume the legal liability and will stop offering those services. She is literally supporting a ruling that would've had the effect of her son not existing. It's convenient when they reproduce the Republican mindset in microcosm like this.
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Feb 21, 2024 20:47
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Main Paineframe posted:Alternatively, in this hypothetical alternate timeline where the Democratic candidate did better in 2016 or the GOP candidate did worse, the GOP might have lost more Senate seats during the 45th president's administration, allowing Dems to take the Senate and hold votes on Hillary's candidates. Alternatively, Mitch might have seen his Supreme Court gambit failing to produce results, and settled for a moderate compromise candidate, rather than risking losing the Senate to Dems without any way to obstruct them from appointing their dream candidates. Since it was replacing Scalia at the very least the conservative wing of the SC would have been down a member if McConnell decided to keep blocking nominations by a Democratic president
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Feb 21, 2024 20:53
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Levitate posted:Since it was replacing Scalia at the very least the conservative wing of the SC would have been down a member if McConnell decided to keep blocking nominations by a Democratic president Yeah, this is how it was for the last year of the Obama administration. The court was 4-4 and issued a number of evenly split decisions. When that happens it's more or less the same as if they had declined to take the case- the appealed decision stands but doesn't become nationwide precedent
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Feb 21, 2024 20:56
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Sax Mortar posted:Holy poo poo that's bad. For some people IVF is the only way to have children (including M/F partners in many instances). yeah, i am only around and annoying you because of IVF. I think going after IVF is bigger gently caress up then killing roe because even alot of pro life types are fine with it. My big prolife catholic god parents are cool with IVF. zoux posted:Here's Nikki Haley agreeing with all that, while noting that her own son was conceived via IVF, apparently not realizing that now providers are not going to be willing to assume the legal liability and will stop offering those services. She is literally supporting a ruling that would've had the effect of her son not existing. I know why, but i dont know why people like her even try anymore. like yeah its about power, but your better off trying to fracture the part and be queen of some faction then taking over this poo poo. all your doing here is losing the moderates who think your good. just lol. I get its a race to the right with the GOP now, but like holy poo poo lady, these people arnt gonna pick you, dont bother with them.
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Feb 21, 2024 20:56
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and here i thought i was too jaded to experience utter disbelief anymore
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Feb 21, 2024 20:59
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah, i am only around and annoying you because of IVF. I think going after IVF is bigger gently caress up then killing roe because even alot of pro life types are fine with it. My big prolife catholic god parents are cool with IVF. I think they've convinced themselves they believe it. The people who are faking it are slowly being either assimilated or driven out
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Feb 21, 2024 21:07
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New poll from Quinnipiac with some interesting results - especially on Israel. Highlights: - Topline numbers are 49 - 45 Biden/Trump. - Majorities think both Biden and Trump are not mentally fit to be President. - Trump has a clear lead on physical fitness to be President (60 - 37). quote:Physical fitness: - However, Biden has large leads on whether he has the temperament to be President and whether they are ethical/cares about average Americans. Trump has an astonishingly low ethical score even among his own supporters. quote:Ethical: - 56% support more aid to Ukraine. - 83% think NATO is important. - A solid majority think we need to continue to support Israel, but at the same time there is a surprising 48 oppose/46 support split on whether we should send more military aid to Israel. - Biden's strongest issue is his handling of the war in Ukraine (47 - 48) - Biden's weakest issue is immigration (29 - 63) https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3890 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:16 on Feb 21, 2024 |
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Feb 21, 2024 21:12
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zoux posted:Here's Nikki Haley agreeing with all that, while noting that her own son was conceived via IVF, apparently not realizing that now providers are not going to be willing to assume the legal liability and will stop offering those services. She is literally supporting a ruling that would've had the effect of her son not existing. That's pretty typical for Haley. She knows what she's saying she just doesn't care. The only real difference between her and trump is that she's smart enough and sane enough to realize she wants to retire at some point, and he isn't.
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Feb 21, 2024 21:12
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:New poll from Quinnipiac with some interesting results - especially on Israel. This one still has Trump winning a fifth of black voters.
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Feb 21, 2024 21:16
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Dapper_Swindler posted:like yeah its about power, but your better off trying to fracture the part and be queen of some faction then taking over this poo poo. all your doing here is losing the moderates who think your good. just lol. I get its a race to the right with the GOP now, but like holy poo poo lady, these people arnt gonna pick you, dont bother with them. She’s just positioning herself to be picked next election. And after that primary, she’ll drift to the center. Standard stuff.
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Feb 21, 2024 21:28
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TheDisreputableDog posted:She’s just positioning herself to be picked next election. And after that primary, she’ll drift to the center. Standard stuff. yeah, but its still really stupid in my opinion.
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Feb 21, 2024 21:32
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Xiahou Dun posted:So kind of jury-rigging it into a parliamentary system? Yeah! I've been in a FPTP voting system, I'd like to get a try at a parliamentary system. I think it would be fascinating to see what kind of minor parties could gain traction in the US under such a system! Or, y'know, horrifying?
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Feb 21, 2024 21:34
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah, but its still really stupid in my opinion. She is, probably correctly, calculating that anyone listening to her closely enough to care about such things is not going to be one of her voters anyway.
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Feb 21, 2024 21:35
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Byzantine posted:I do think it's funny that all the people earnestly (and to be fair, correctly) arguing that Manchin could never be controlled by the executive will turn around and believe that President Girlboss would've gotten Big Mitch to approve her court picks, somehow. Holding a Supreme Court seat open for an entire presidential term is quite different from using the fig leaf of an upcoming election to hold it for a year. I have a few older family members who completely bought the "let the voters decide!" argument, even if everyone here knew Mitch was full of poo poo before he went on to prove it conclusively with Trump. I think it is a bigger stretch to assume Hilary could never fill a Supreme Court vacancy than to assume she could have. But since it's a counterfactual we'll never know.
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Feb 21, 2024 21:47
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Dull Fork posted:Yeah! I've been in a FPTP voting system, I'd like to get a try at a parliamentary system. I think it would be fascinating to see what kind of minor parties could gain traction in the US under such a system! Or, y'know, horrifying? The Caucasians Hanging Urban Dwellers party of course.
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Feb 21, 2024 21:48
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A prosecutor in Arizona is refusing to extradite a man charged with murder in NYC because Bragg is soft on crime (and probably because he went after Trump as well.) https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/21/nyregion/soho-hotel-murder-bragg-arizona.html NYT posted:Criticizing Bragg, Arizona Refuses to Send Murder Suspect to New York
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Feb 21, 2024 21:57
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L. Ron DeSantis posted:A prosecutor in Arizona is refusing to extradite a man charged with murder in NYC because Bragg is soft on crime (and probably because he went after Trump as well.) I know of one local case that's.... not exactly the same thing. In 2011-2012 Gov. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island refused to extradite Jason Pleau to the Feds over a murder charge due to his opposition of the death penalty. Was a big thing, Chafee lost but won, guy got life in the end.
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Feb 21, 2024 22:03
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:New poll from Quinnipiac with some interesting results - especially on Israel. The 46% of Dems thinking Biden is too old to serve another term and over 2/3rds majorities in every age group except the elderly is pretty funny.
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Feb 21, 2024 22:11
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DeeplyConcerned posted:In my view, you're right to be skeptical of polling. A quick poll of this thread will illustrate the point quite nicely. How many people in here answer calls from unknown numbers? if you do how many listen to the robotic spiel of every caller, patiently wait for them to finish their spiel to figure out whether it's a poll or not and then, if it is a poll answer it? Yeah this is a good analysis. My feeling is that since this Trump era of US politics has come upon us, political polling has become unreliable in ways that are difficult to predict or understand. Some of that is due to Trump himself and the type of zealous voters that he attracts and how they do not fit neatly into likely voter models of even the recent past. But a lot is also due to how political polling has failed to settle into an accurate and reliable methodology that works in our current mobile phone and social media world. Like you I never answer unknown numbers except for the same type of rare situations you described. This means that people like me, which encompasses the huge portion of reliably voting and politically engaged people who vote and donate on BOTH sides of the aisle, are largely missed by polling. So how good are the samples that they are looking at, regardless of size? How skewed? I think that some things like large trends are probably still very valid, and I do not want to be the guy that simply rejects data that I do not like, but there seem to be a lot of issues.
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Feb 21, 2024 22:29
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zoux posted:The Alabama Supreme Court made a boneheaded and unprecedented ruling that "Frozen embryos are children" yesterday -meaning anyone who destroys one is liable for harming a child - and the consequences have been immediate: This is just the first of many shoes to drop. Even without laws being passed, fertility/IVF clinics realizing they could be on the hook for civil wrongful death judgments for millions or criminal manslaughter beefs if some nimrod lets their embryos thaw or drops a rack of tubes, big effects like clinics closing their doors or moving their operations out of state could start to happen immedately. Or charging twice as much because of new insurance and infrastructure expenses to cover the new contingencies.
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Feb 21, 2024 22:32
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L. Ron DeSantis posted:A prosecutor in Arizona is refusing to extradite a man charged with murder in NYC because Bragg is soft on crime (and probably because he went after Trump as well.) I know it's a stunt but what are they even keeping him arrested on if not to extradite him? Can you just keep a dude in jail indefinitely on an out of state warrant by refusing to extradite him to the state where he could be actually processed?
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Feb 21, 2024 22:38
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zoux posted:I think that if COVID had killed children at the same rate as it did old people, instead of not at all, we would've seen a massively different response here and world wide. The fact that most of the deaths were elderly - many elderly and invisible - people cared less. Fully a quarter of the Texas nursing home population died of COVID, that's an unimaginable holocaust if not for the fact that we put people in those places so we don't have to think about them while they are dying. Counterpoint: nothing changed after Sandy Hook, or the dozens of other child slaughters that have happened since. America doesn't give a poo poo about children, adults, anyone except Business as Usual and Capital
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Feb 21, 2024 22:46
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shimmy shimmy posted:I know it's a stunt but what are they even keeping him arrested on if not to extradite him? Can you just keep a dude in jail indefinitely on an out of state warrant by refusing to extradite him to the state where he could be actually processed? When he arrived in Arizona, he stabbed someone there too, so they're presumably going to charge him with that.
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Feb 21, 2024 22:49
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shimmy shimmy posted:I know it's a stunt but what are they even keeping him arrested on if not to extradite him? Can you just keep a dude in jail indefinitely on an out of state warrant by refusing to extradite him to the state where he could be actually processed? I would certainly hope not, but I don't think there's much precedent to go on.
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Feb 21, 2024 22:49
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Zwabu posted:This is just the first of many shoes to drop. Even without laws being passed, fertility/IVF clinics realizing they could be on the hook for civil wrongful death judgments for millions or criminal manslaughter beefs if some nimrod lets their embryos thaw or drops a rack of tubes, big effects like clinics closing their doors or moving their operations out of state could start to happen immedately. what i am curious about is if another state does it, like a Okalahoma or texas.
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Feb 21, 2024 22:56
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Dapper_Swindler posted:what i am curious about is if another state does it, like a Okalahoma or texas. I feel like it is almost inevitable. It no longer matters whether or not the GOP powers that be want these cases or lawsuits to happen anymore. Dobbs has opened the Pandora’s box that lets any state with wingnut justices go this route.
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Feb 21, 2024 23:07
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Gyges posted:It was never a hoax that Russia did some interference. The hoax was that Hillary Clinton was martyred by that dastardly Russia, and that it wasn't just one of ten thousand mostly self inflicted cuts that killed her campaign. I think we can pretty conclusively say that this did happen, though! At a certain point, I think we can decisively say "Donald Trump had to cheat to beat Hillary Clinton" and I arrived at that conclusion years ago. It wasn't a hoax. Hillary did indeed get robbed. It's okay, there's no shame in admitting it.
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Feb 21, 2024 23:28
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