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DarkHorse posted:Only feasible reason would be you want to maximize chaos and don't especially care if your half a billion works, which at this point would only be Russia really lol, Saul Goodman did this in Better Call Saul
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Feb 23, 2024 12:42
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Has Trump considered going to Sky Finance to come up with the cash?
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Feb 23, 2024 13:01
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DeeplyConcerned posted:I actually think Trump is a worse target for this kind of bribery than you might think. To me the biggest upside for bailing him out if you're a leader of a foreign government, or some other similarly situated person, wouldn't be the idea that you would have him in your pocket after paying him off. (also since their main reason for hating gay people is the mental image of the sex, and Trump is Trump, yeah)
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Feb 23, 2024 13:38
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While true enough from a normal black mail perspective, I think things change in the realm of realpolitik international actions. Doing something so brazenly corrupt out loud right in front of everyone's face and screaming from the rooftops that you're doing it would be a wet dream for Putin. He lives and breathes spreading corruption and instability in other governments. It is his first and absolute favorite playbook taken straight from the KGB. Even if its a 100% loss of the funds and Trump doesn't do poo poo for him afterwards, the headlines across the globe of "corrupt America" would be priceless to him.
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Feb 23, 2024 13:39
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BigHead posted:Habba has no business representing someone like Donald Trump for what he's accused of. It's insane watching Habba not know how to mark exhibits or offer her own opinion as a question three weeks into defending the President. Maybe she's a complete toady who caught his ear at the wrong time, maybe he just likes her looks, maybe she's doing it for free, who knows. He should have someone in his entourage asking him what the hell he's doing with this lawyer though. I agree with everything you've said, and but think you're overlooking Habba's agency in pitching herself to a very dumb, very arrogant creep who she's been around enough to know at least which buttons to press. She's already likely set herself up for disbarment for that earlier favor she did derailing a sexual harassment suit at Mar-a-Lago, which saved him money and further hurt a victim of his business, which we know he likes, and being trash-tier likely didn't charge much or possibly anything to do it. She's likely got the base cunning to realize at this point, having done so, she's got no future except tied to Trump, so every incentive to really lobby for being his defender in the civil suit (and god knows what else), and, as noted elsewhere, even the middle-weights won't take Trump's calls anymore for being such a legendarily lovely client. All of these things put together with Habba being an attractive woman who's subservient and willing to present the sort of arguments he wants to make in court, as opposed to, you know, actually being good at litigation, make her superficially seem like an innovative change of pace that just might pay off from his diseased point of view. As to why no one said anything to let him know that she's an empty suit several leagues out of her depth, 1) at this point who other than toadies and lick-spittles are there in his immediate orbit, and even if there are, 2) Why would he listen to anyone who contradicts his beautiful perfect brain decision, just the best many people are saying so?
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Feb 23, 2024 13:59
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BigHead posted:What's incredible to me in all this is Habba herself. ... Conversely, imagine that you're a no-tier incompetent attorney on track to disbarment anyway because of your manifold sins and wickedness. Trump gives you an opportunity to make a few million then move into a long term career as a right wing grifter instead. All you have to do is torch your license (a sunk cost anyway at the rate your career is going!) and repeat whatever bullshit he tells you to for a year or two.
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Feb 23, 2024 14:09
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Honestly while she has no business representing Trump, I'm glad she is, because plenty of bad people get away with murder thanks to competent lawyers and the less change of it happening with Trump the better. That said, she's not lead counsel on any of his criminal cases, just his civil ones, right? Is she even party to any of the criminal cases? Kinda interesting if not, given the right to competent counsel for those...
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Feb 23, 2024 14:15
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Tesseraction posted:Honestly while she has no business representing Trump, I'm glad she is, because plenty of bad people get away with murder thanks to competent lawyers and the less change of it happening with Trump the better. I find it increasingly clear that he's not even trying to really win his cases conventionally anymore but to grievance grandstand and stall, betting everything on getting back into office and then making his problems go away along with what's left of American democracy. She wasn't a bad fit for that case, in that particular context.
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Feb 23, 2024 14:32
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DeeplyConcerned posted:I actually think Trump is a worse target for this kind of bribery than you might think. To me the biggest upside for bailing him out if you're a leader of a foreign government, or some other similarly situated person, wouldn't be the idea that you would have him in your pocket after paying him off.
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Feb 23, 2024 14:49
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Habba gives Trump exactly what he wants. News Cycles. She goes on Fox and says the things he wants people to hear about how it’s the AG of NY abusing her office or the Judge is corrupt or it’s all a Biden hoax, things which a ‘real’ lawyer isn’t going to say. He never plans to pay any of this money anyway and the main way he gets that outcome is an all or nothing roll of the dice to become president by flooding the zone with his propaganda. He’s publicly looking for a real lawyer to handle the appeals process because all he needs there is reasonable competence to slow it down a few months.
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Feb 23, 2024 14:51
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People keep saying pretty confidently that Habba is going to be disbarred, but I've never seen anyone post an article that mentions any kind of disciplinary action. Is that any more than a rumor? Does she have some kind of upcoming hearing or something?
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Feb 23, 2024 15:22
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Neorxenawang posted:People keep saying pretty confidently that Habba is going to be disbarred, but I've never seen anyone post an article that mentions any kind of disciplinary action. Is that any more than a rumor? Does she have some kind of upcoming hearing or something? I think it's more that the poo poo she pulled in attempting to derail a Mar-a-Lago employee's sexual harrassment lawsuit is so outrageously unethical, and well known, that people can't imagine there isn't something bad strolling down the road toward her.
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Feb 23, 2024 15:25
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So how much does Trump actually have to put up in March for both cases? If he gets a bond, how much does he have to put up?
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Feb 23, 2024 15:27
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small butter posted:So how much does Trump actually have to put up in March for both cases? If he gets a bond, how much does he have to put up? Around half a billion. A super exact number is slightly hard to give because it gets most of 100 grand in interest every day.
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Feb 23, 2024 15:31
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Via https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/22/trump-now-owes-more-than-500m-how-will-he-pay $450mn roughly for that plus roughly $600k per week he doesn't pay due to interest, on top of the $83mn for E Jean Carroll.
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Feb 23, 2024 16:02
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The Carroll money is due imminently so we’ll see what happens pretty soon. I don’t think Trump can get his hands on even that much cash without breaking some other law so this should be interesting. Would a ‘loan’ from some wealthy entity count as a campaign contribution considering how tightly coupled Trump claims these trials are to his campaign?
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Feb 23, 2024 16:15
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Isn't the FEC deadlocked all the time?
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Feb 23, 2024 16:18
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Seems likely someone needs to make a formal complaint to get a state organization to disbar someone. Her client isn’t going to complain formally (because that isn’t how he rolls, and because he wants to gently caress her) and lawyers going up against her aren’t going to complain about an opponent doing a terrible job. Maybe a judge or someone unrelated gets annoyed enough about egregiously wasted time or something.
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Feb 23, 2024 16:20
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The Habba disbarment is about something else: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KvoIDkEsiw She tricked a woman who already had legal representation into dropping that lawyer for her, not telling that woman she was actually representing Trump, in order to trick the woman into a terrible and illegal NDA settlement. Nothing to do with her terrible lawyering in the Trump trials
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Feb 23, 2024 16:26
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Main Paineframe posted:Even if the Russians could spend half a billion bucks to bail Trump out, I'm not so sure that they would? Trump has spread pro-Russia stances to much of the GOP; they don't need him in particular anymore. If he gets too expensive or difficult to support, they can just cut him loose. Well I'm sure the Russians would like Trump to win the election. I don't think Trump going bankrupt would necessarily mean he loses but it certainly doesn't help his chances of winning.
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Feb 23, 2024 16:37
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It actually hits almost all of the poo poo that state bars get really mad about for misconduct, except for messing with your client's trust fund.
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Feb 23, 2024 16:38
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How could he even receive the money from any foreign source, without somebody noticing? They're not going to drop off a van filled with $500M in twenties. Edit: now I'm wondering if you could even get 25 million 20-dollar bills into a single van
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Feb 23, 2024 16:53
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Murgos posted:The Carroll money is due imminently so we’ll see what happens pretty soon. Mar-a-lago Shrimp Cocktail happy hour! Shrimp Cocktail + Club Sandwich + Martini $24,000
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Feb 23, 2024 16:54
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Tesseraction posted:The Habba disbarment is about something else: That right there may be why Trump continues to employ her. She was willing to act massively unethically for his benefit.
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Feb 23, 2024 17:00
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mdemone posted:How could he even receive the money from any foreign source, without somebody noticing? it would be 25 of these  so definitely "fleet of eighteen-wheelers" territory
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Feb 23, 2024 17:05
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Ms Adequate posted:The reason to give Trump the money wouldn't be to get him in your pocket if he wins (Though there has never been a shortage of people who go "Trump ripped off those other idiots but I know how to handle him, I'll run rings around him"), it would be to increase the rate of degradation in American's faith in the democratic system. You shore up his image as a strong ultra-rich businessman, and if and when it comes out, so much the better - the chuds will deny it or that it matters and everyone else will despair. this seems like the most likely benefit of any trump-benefitting interference. with the supreme court looking increasingly bought and paid for, may as well dump more gas on the fire of illegitimacy things are hosed up here that i don't have trouble believing that a flagrant show of "yeah, the system's corrupt, we're literally dumping literal bribe money in and your government can't/won't do anything about it" seems like the next step after getting to a point where they can do that all in darkness you don't need to risk war at america if you can make it go to war with itself.
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Feb 23, 2024 17:07
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mdemone posted:How could he even receive the money from any foreign source, without somebody noticing? A single bill weighs about a gram, according to google. 25 million bills would therefore be 25,000 kilograms, or 55,000 pounds - 27.5 tons. More likely they would be $100s, the largest bill in circulation - five million individual bills, five thousand kilograms, 11,000 pounds or 5.5 tons So the answer is "not really"
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Feb 23, 2024 17:07
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A single email to a Caymen Island account would be enough.
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Feb 23, 2024 17:08
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I mean, he's got structured settlements and he needs cash now...
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Feb 23, 2024 17:19
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FMguru posted:Trump's previous several batches of attorneys all quit on him because 1) Trump doesn't do what he's told by his lawyers, 2) loves to insult and scream at and blame his lawyers, and most importantly 3) doesn't pay his lawyers. He literally ran off all the lawyers out there that weren't parking-lot grade. Pretty much. Trump isn't just a toxic client, he's the most high profile, transparently obvious toxic client. Any lawyer of any political stripe should jump at a chance to defend an ex-president in court. That's the kind of thing that makes a career. But he's so well known for being the worst that no one will touch him. Why represent Trump when you know he'll make insane and often illegal demands, won't pay you, and there's a disturbingly deep history of his lawyers needing lawyers? Everyone who is anywhere on the decent side of competent doesn’t want anything to do with him. He brought this entirely on himself, too.
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Feb 23, 2024 17:39
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The man who makes ambulance chasers flee.
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Feb 23, 2024 17:44
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Murgos posted:The Carroll money is due imminently so we’ll see what happens pretty soon. Does Trump need to show how he got that money? Are there checks on the transfer process? It's just such a bogglingly vast sum that when a little person like me needs to be aware of things like structuring deposits and other limits, I would think there are additional mechanisms that half a billion dollars brings into play. If Trump had the liquid cash ready to go I would still side-eye it thinking it was incredibly suspicious, but if he got something from a third party I would think all those transactions would be looked at under a microscope. I do know I am heavily biased though, if I was in the govts position, I would want to make sure Trump isn't kiting the loving check before I would say we're good.
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Feb 23, 2024 17:51
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You just cover it up the easiest way possible, inflate the value of a property and have the bribe be a purchase of that. Good thing Trump doesn't have a history of getting caught inflating the value of his properties.
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Feb 23, 2024 17:57
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Normally there's a lot of ways for a wealthy person with illiquid assets to come up with cash, but these typically involve taking out loans using existing property as collateral. Since Trump has been on the Do Not Lend list for reputable banks for over twenty years this becomes much more difficult.
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Feb 23, 2024 18:02
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Oil! posted:You just cover it up the easiest way possible, inflate the value of a property and have the bribe be a purchase of that. Good thing Trump doesn't have a history of getting caught inflating the value of his properties. He also wouldn't be in charge of such a sale; Barbara Jones would, as the court-appointed monitor.
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Feb 23, 2024 18:02
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Morrow posted:Normally there's a lot of ways for a wealthy person with illiquid assets to come up with cash, but these typically involve taking out loans using existing property as collateral. Since Trump has been on the Do Not Lend list for reputable banks for over twenty years this becomes much more difficult. And Engoron just banned him from seeking a loan from any bank registered with New York State.
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Feb 23, 2024 18:03
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mdemone posted:And Engoron just banned him from seeking a loan from any bank registered with New York State. In case anyone else was curious like me, yes Deutsche bank is registered in nyc.
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Feb 23, 2024 18:18
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It's going to be basically every bank.
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Feb 23, 2024 18:22
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Wisconsin ethics commission refers Trump fundraising arm for prosecutionquote:Bipartisan ethics regulators in Wisconsin have recommended felony charges against one of Donald Trump’s fundraising arms and other Republicans in a scheme that they say was meant to circumvent campaign finance laws to take out a powerful GOP lawmaker who has turned against Trump.
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Feb 23, 2024 18:47
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Donkringel posted:Does Trump need to show how he got that money? Are there checks on the transfer process? I've been wondering this too. I'm aware of a few mechanisms that might flag a suspicious transfer when it happens, and a few mechanisms that would eventually catch it, but I have no idea if the NY courts have other tools (or are even interested in) finding out the source of whatever money he shows up with. Any big transfers that ran through the Trump Org would get noticed fairly quickly, since there's a court-appointed former judge overseeing all of that. But (I think?) the special master does not have insight into Trump's personal finances, so she would not see any transactions that only flow through Trump personally. What if some foreign actor wanted to wire him the cash? Well, you can't send anything directly from a Russian bank, those are all sanctioned to hell. If you send something from a non-sanctioned international bank, well... I don't know what the specific requirements are for a bank to file a Suspicious Activity Report with FinCEN for a wire transfer, but I would think a bank would be playing with fire if they saw "incoming international 9-figure wire to Donald J. Trump" and did not immediately write up a SAR. I'm sure there are ways around that, but I'm less sure that those ways can be made to work for moving half a billion in less than a month. Morrow posted:Normally there's a lot of ways for a wealthy person with illiquid assets to come up with cash, but these typically involve taking out loans using existing property as collateral. Since Trump has been on the Do Not Lend list for reputable banks for over twenty years this becomes much more difficult. yes, and even if reputable banks were willing to lend to him, getting a half-billion dollar mortgage prepared, approved, signed on the dotted line, and disbursed in less than 30 calendar days is no small feat! I'm sure it can happen for the right high-value clients in the right circumstances... but these are not ideal circumstances, and any big reputable bank would be overriding and short-cutting its usual lending processes for a massive transaction with one of the most radioactive clients in banking history. And also! To get that kind of loan, Trump would need a property 1) that he personally owns, not one owned by the Trump Org (as that could be flagged or stopped by the court-appointed monitor); and 2) that clearly has at least half a billion in equity (i.e., that the market value of the property minus any mortgages he already has on it is more than half a billion.) Trump is famously leveraged every which way, so I would not be surprised if he didn't actually have any properties that checks those two boxes. Oil! posted:You just cover it up the easiest way possible, inflate the value of a property and have the bribe be a purchase of that. Good thing Trump doesn't have a history of getting caught inflating the value of his properties. That's a lot of ifs! And even if he cleared those hurdles... real estate transactions are public record, so everyone would find out about it fairly quickly, and you'd have a whole bunch of government agencies looking at it if the sale price was obviously overinflated. And he would end up owing taxes on that profit from that sale, actual amount TBD but federal taxes of 20% for long-term capital gains would be a good starting point for taking guesses. tl;dr - if you're an accountant or a banker or tax lawyer or some similar kind of professional nerd, the New York state judicial system has generated some incredible content for you
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Feb 23, 2024 18:48
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