(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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if the us seizes iranian weapon shipments and diverts them to ukraine, and then the slav-ishly corrupt ukrainians sell them on the black market, and they end up in the hands of a iranian proxy group, does that count as a weapon going missing or just a very complicated natural cycle?
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Feb 23, 2024 20:56
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:if the us seizes iranian weapon shipments and diverts them to ukraine, and then the slav-ishly corrupt ukrainians sell them on the black market, and they end up in the hands of a iranian proxy group, does that count as a weapon going missing or just a very complicated natural cycle? In a Reaganistic twist they will end up in Nicaragua.
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Feb 23, 2024 21:01
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wrong thread
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Feb 23, 2024 21:06
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Mr. Apollo posted:Ukrainian Telegram channels are say that it was shot down by Ukrainians. Russian Telegram channels are denying this and are saying that they shot down their own aircraft. That's not a joke btw. Wikipedia says 40 of these were made, but only 7 are "active." Later in the same article it cites a source that says Russia has "nine or ten." If the claimed two shoot-downs are real, that, uh, seems like a big deal. For comparison, Wikipedia says the US made sixty eight of the E-3.
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Feb 23, 2024 21:11
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mawarannahr posted:The response took to the OP's claim regarding weapons shipments and but responded as if the claim applied to all aid. I have no opinion on the claim itself, but I think the response was to a claim that was not made. I'm not exactly sure how its an unreasonable interpretation to conclude the meaning of "at rates up to 70%" means in practice a very large and non-trivial amount of aid? I'm not sure how this changes the argument or the response people would make, which has largely been, "Do you have a source?" and "This seems obviously false?" In any case, since you don't have any evidence to support the claim you think is being made, it is reasonable to conclude that the claim is false yes?
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Feb 23, 2024 21:13
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Kchama posted:70% is awfully impressive when the unaccounted-for rate is only 5%. And what’s far more likely is Occam’s razor: that it just got used. The logistics for smuggling weapons, especially of the sort that Ukraine is receiving is not easy. I’d need to see real hard evidence to believe that munitions are disappearing in any statistically meaningful quantity.
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Feb 23, 2024 21:16
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Raenir Salazar posted:I'm not exactly sure how its an unreasonable interpretation to conclude the meaning of "at rates up to 70%" means in practice a very large and non-trivial amount of aid? it could very easily mean (for example) the typical loss rate is between one and five percent, with rare individual shipments having loss rates up to 70%. "Up to x" is meaningless if we dont know whether x is a typical rate or an outlier.
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Feb 23, 2024 21:20
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:it could very easily mean (for example) the typical loss rate is between one and five percent, with rare individual shipments having loss rates up to 70%. I think his point is that the op used that number to try and imply that a vast majority amount of the aid was disappearing. Or just didn't understand the difference between 'rate up to X%' and 'X%'.
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Feb 23, 2024 21:28
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Dandywalken posted:Yep, one was possibly abandoned elsewhere tho. That's news for me, you have any source? I've been trying to track them and as far as I know this is the first time they have been used.
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Feb 23, 2024 21:32
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Anyway, what's the thread's take on the Czech claims of having found close to a million shells that could be delivered in a few weeks? Obviously 70% of them will go to the black market, but it would still be a nice boost if it materializes. 155mm caliber is a NATO standard while 122mm is a Warsaw Pact one. What could the secret sources be? North Korea, in a strange twist? https://kyivindependent.com/czechia-can-deliver-hundreds-of-thousands-of-shells-to-ukraine-if-allies-contribute/ quote:Czechia identified around 800,000 artillery shells abroad that could be sent to Ukraine within weeks if provided funding from other partners, Czech President Petr Pavel said on Feb. 17.
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Feb 23, 2024 21:35
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Kchama posted:I think his point is that the op used that number to try and imply that a vast majority amount of the aid was disappearing. Exactly, OP's post is unclear at best but the most likely explanation given the provided context is exactly that, to imply a large number of aid was being misplaced. Otherwise why would it be an issue? Which is the very sentiment the OP was responding to. Ending that initial sentence with "but whats the big deal???" only makes sense if the context and intended meaning for the 70% figure is to imply that the amount lost is "a lot".
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Feb 23, 2024 21:43
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Nenonen posted:Anyway, what's the thread's take on the Czech claims of having found close to a million shells that could be delivered in a few weeks? Obviously 70% of them will go to the black market, but it would still be a nice boost if it materializes. 155mm caliber is a NATO standard while 122mm is a Warsaw Pact one. What could the secret sources be? North Korea, in a strange twist? Obviously the 1 million shells for sale are the 70% of what was originally sent to Ukraine.
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Feb 23, 2024 21:45
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Nenonen posted:Anyway, what's the thread's take on the Czech claims of having found close to a million shells that could be delivered in a few weeks? Obviously 70% of them will go to the black market, but it would still be a nice boost if it materializes. 155mm caliber is a NATO standard while 122mm is a Warsaw Pact one. What could the secret sources be? North Korea, in a strange twist? I wonder how much these shells cost by the way - haven't seen much talk about this, people just talk about how many shells are being produced or procured. From some source I remember a figure of 3300 € per 155 mm shell, not sure how accurate that is, but one million shells at that price for example would be 3,3 billion €, which seems like a fairly big amount but not impossible. Also, how long would these shells last? To defend against big Russian offensives, I remember seeing some figure like 10k shells per day or maybe 30k per day would be required... with that kind of rate, even one million shells wouldn't last very long? Anyway, hopefully all million shells can be acquired and delivered, it's still excellent value for money in every way
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Feb 23, 2024 22:11
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beer_war posted:wrong thread Don’t worry, 70% of posts sent to other threads are unaccounted for and ending up here.
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Feb 23, 2024 22:59
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RT and Fox News are now reporting that 170% of weapons sent to Ukraine have been stolen by terrorist groups. The extra 70% is weapons that have already been earmarked for theft in any possible future aid package should Congress pass it.
Charliegrs fucked around with this message at 23:15 on Feb 23, 2024 |
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Feb 23, 2024 23:03
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does anyone have a clear picture of exactly where the russians are losing these a-50s? i'm wondering if ukranians are doing tricks with amraam's by firing them at ultra high altitude from supersonic speeds or something to supremely juice the range. or i guess i shouldn't be too surprised if russian air crew keep repeating patterns that allow for sam ambushesNenonen posted:Anyway, what's the thread's take on the Czech claims of having found close to a million shells that could be delivered in a few weeks? Obviously 70% of them will go to the black market, but it would still be a nice boost if it materializes. 155mm caliber is a NATO standard while 122mm is a Warsaw Pact one. What could the secret sources be? North Korea, in a strange twist? if i had to take i wild guess, i'd say india. they field nato-standard artillery systems at scale, and have taken a fairly traditional neutral position on the conflict that would make secrecy or at least plausible deniability a thing
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Feb 23, 2024 23:22
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:does anyone have a clear picture of exactly where the russians are losing these a-50s? i'm wondering if ukranians are doing tricks with amraam's by firing them at ultra high altitude from supersonic speeds or something to supremely juice the range. or i guess i shouldn't be too surprised if russian air crew keep repeating patterns that allow for sam ambushes The latest one was apparently 220km inside Russia itself, which is pretty much out of range of most AA things Ukraine has, I believe. Not just the 220km itself, but the need to get close to Russia and shoot the missiles without the missiles being shot down or seen beforehand.
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Feb 23, 2024 23:26
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:does anyone have a clear picture of exactly where the russians are losing these a-50s? i'm wondering if ukranians are doing tricks with amraam's by firing them at ultra high altitude from supersonic speeds or something to supremely juice the range. or i guess i shouldn't be too surprised if russian air crew keep repeating patterns that allow for sam ambushes The rumor on the first one (not sure if this ended up being true) was Ukraine moved a Patriot battery to near the front line to catch them off guard. Not sure if they have that kind of range for this one?
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Feb 23, 2024 23:29
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That would be a very long range shot for a PAC-3.  Comedy option: it was an F-16.
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Feb 23, 2024 23:34
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:does anyone have a clear picture of exactly where the russians are losing these a-50s? i'm wondering if ukranians are doing tricks with amraam's by firing them at ultra high altitude from supersonic speeds or something to supremely juice the range. or i guess i shouldn't be too surprised if russian air crew keep repeating patterns that allow for sam ambushes This article claims it was an S-200: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/23/7443442/ Wikipedia on S-200 says some of those missiles have like 250-300 km range. I guess that sounds plausible
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Feb 23, 2024 23:36
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Actually... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-88_HARM One of those on an F-16 would have the range. They're supposed to just be air to ground, though.
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Feb 23, 2024 23:39
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Ynglaur posted:That would be a very long range shot for a PAC-3. I would bet money that they've got a couple in the air just for training/testing and took a potshot for the hell of it.
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Feb 23, 2024 23:42
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Supposedly the location: That's about 135km of so from Mariupol eyeballing a similar spot on Google Maps, so no, it's not 200km within Russia as recognized by reasonable people.
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Feb 23, 2024 23:42
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If that was the location of the shoot down then I am more inclined to believe that is was FF.
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Feb 23, 2024 23:45
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Nenonen posted:Anyway, what's the thread's take on the Czech claims of having found close to a million shells that could be delivered in a few weeks? Obviously 70% of them will go to the black market, but it would still be a nice boost if it materializes. 155mm caliber is a NATO standard while 122mm is a Warsaw Pact one. What could the secret sources be? North Korea, in a strange twist? DTurtle fucked around with this message at 23:51 on Feb 23, 2024 |
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Feb 23, 2024 23:46
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FWIW, there's at least one video purportedly of this A-50 shootdown, showing the aircraft dropping a lot of flares before being hit. It was obviously aware it was under attack. The video also appears to show a detonation of one of the incoming missiles that missed, before the lethal hit. So multiple inbound missiles look to be involved. I don't know anything about countermeasures on the A-50 but presumably these incoming missiles were radar guided, so flares alone aren't going to do poo poo. Don't know if they also used any kind of chaff or decoys for radar but if so it wasn't good enough.
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Feb 24, 2024 00:11
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DTurtle posted:I saw this last week somewhere, and I vaguely recall that the source would mostly be Turkey. I’d have to check and see if I can find something somewhere. Would Turkey have a huge stack of 122mm shells though? That's a Russian caliber.
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Feb 24, 2024 00:24
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Number_6 posted:FWIW, there's at least one video purportedly of this A-50 shootdown, showing the aircraft dropping a lot of flares before being hit. It was obviously aware it was under attack. The video also appears to show a detonation of one of the incoming missiles that missed, before the lethal hit. So multiple inbound missiles look to be involved. Video is on r/CombatFootage. Not sure of the video-posting rules here anymore with all the mod drama, so I won't direct link it. That plane poo poo out so many flares. I can only imagine being the poor bastard sitting and watching possibly multiple missiles coming directly at me and repeatedly slamming the FLARE button repeatedly while also making GBS threads my pants. Henrik Zetterberg fucked around with this message at 00:37 on Feb 24, 2024 |
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Feb 24, 2024 00:35
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If they were radar guided missiles, presumably the flares don't actually do anything.
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Feb 24, 2024 00:48
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Saint Celestine posted:If they were radar guided missiles, presumably the flares don't actually do anything. Not that it helped them apparently, but would we be able to see chaff at night from that distance? I'm guessing no. If I had incoming I'd probably mash my face into all the deploy countermeasure buttons available. But that seems like it should be automated properly in 2024, especially for such a high-value vehicle. It's not like flares are unlimited. The range does suggest more of a "friendly" fire incident, though similarly crazy stuff has happened with Ukrainian agents operating within Russia. Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 01:01 on Feb 24, 2024 |
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Feb 24, 2024 00:59
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Orthanc6 posted:If I had incoming I'd probably mash my face into all the deploy countermeasure buttons available. But that seems like it should be automated properly in 2024, especially for such a high-value vehicle. It's not like flares are unlimited. western planes: protocol based electronic optimized countermeasure deployment russian planes: turning a big dial taht says "Flare" on it and constantly looking back at the missile
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Feb 24, 2024 01:44
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Staluigi posted:russian planes: turning a big dial taht says "Flare" on it and constantly looking back at the missile Can we make this the next thread title?
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Feb 24, 2024 01:58
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I saw "IL-22" was trending on Twitter and checked it out. There's a lot of buzz that an IL-22 and at least one Su-34 were also shot down. https://twitter.com/search?q=IL-22&src=trend_click&vertical=trends
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Feb 24, 2024 02:04
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It was probably dropping both chaff and flare but you're not gonna see the chaff. I think that's the standard protocol, if a missile is coming at you dump everything you've got because you never know what seeker capability it has and flares/chaff are cheap compared to an aircraft and pilot(s). At that point I don't think Chaff is likely to do much anyways, an aircraft that large and slow isn't really going to evade anything.
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Feb 24, 2024 02:12
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mllaneza posted:I saw "IL-22" was trending on Twitter and checked it out. There's a lot of buzz that an IL-22 and at least one Su-34 were also shot down. I think people might be confusing things with the shootdowns on 1/15, where the first A-50 was shot down.
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Feb 24, 2024 02:58
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Orthanc6 posted:The range does suggest more of a "friendly" fire incident, though similarly crazy stuff has happened with Ukrainian agents operating within Russia. mllaneza posted:I saw "IL-22" was trending on Twitter and checked it out. There's a lot of buzz that an IL-22 and at least one Su-34 were also shot down. NATO should change the Su-34's reporting name from 'Fullback' to 'Fullblyat'.
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Feb 24, 2024 03:08
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Budzilla posted:S-200 missile systems are old so they can't be easily deployed and would have to be sitting back from the frontline and that would really stretch the distance to the target. Given the old SAM system and the location, I'm left wondering if the HUR maybe operating in deep Donbas, hijacking SAM sites from burned-out conscripts and using them against Russian aircraft.
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Feb 24, 2024 03:29
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Young Freud posted:Given the old SAM system and the location, I'm left wondering if the HUR maybe operating in deep Donbas, hijacking SAM sites from burned-out conscripts and using them against Russian aircraft. After I made my previous post a video has surfaced that looks like the same incident from a different angle. Except you can see a missile(or the rocket exhaust) in its boost phase.
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Feb 24, 2024 04:21
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Budzilla posted:S-200 missile systems are old so they can't be easily deployed and would have to be sitting back from the frontline and that would really stretch the distance to the target. Given how low the plane was to the ground when it was hit, it definitely wasn't hit by an unmodified S-200. Even if the illuminator would have been right at the frontline, the plane would have had to have been really loving high even to be visible above the horizon, and could have dived below it to dodge the missiles when they saw them coming. I think a more reasonable alternative is that they have a bunch of old S-200 missiles, which are crappy in a myriad of ways but do have very respectable range, and have played frankensam with their sensors/guidance packages, producing radiation-seeking missiles. They can then launch those when they hear the radar, without having to use the illuminator or the rest of the system, having just trucked individual launchers and missiles into somewhere they expected to be in range of the plane.
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Feb 24, 2024 04:41
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Budzilla posted:After I made my previous post a video has surfaced that looks like the same incident from a different angle. Except you can see a missile(or the rocket exhaust) in its boost phase. That could be missiles being fired at the missile targeting the A-50. Makes me wonder if through direction finding / other C3I methods, they have launched a S200 or something with a pre-determined search pattern in a specific area. Ie, they guess or know an A50 is operating near that place, launch S200 with terminal guidance only turned on in the last 50 km or so when at very high altitude.
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Feb 24, 2024 09:38
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