USCE 2024: Macklemore Is The New Michael Moore

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE 2024: Macklemore Is The New Michael Moore

GlyphGryph: Jun 23, 2013; Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

Paracaidas posted:

There's a massive gap between "people I agree with on everything" and the poo poo that APP advocates for. I think we all have a threshold for what's tolerable disagreement

Sure, of course, but I'm never going to accomplish anything if there are ever only single digits percentages of the population I can work with. Progress is always going to be mean working with people who are literal monsters unless you yourself are so monstrous that most of the population is better than you. I don't need to actually find someone tolerable to work with them towards shared goals.

The danger of working with most conservative groups in particular is that they are often straight up lying about their goals and you risk getting played quite badly by giving them the benefit of the doubt, so the extent of beneficial collaboration often looks like "I wrote this bill and you claim to want this sort of thing so why don't you vote for it?"

If you have to give them additional stuff you don't want to get them on board, then the original premise (that you were both working towards the same good goal, that there was ANYTHING you agreed on) was clearly false. It's an entirely different situation. Working together with a group of bigots to write and pass actual antitrust legislation is necessary Working together with a group of bigots to write anti-trans legislation that pretends to be about sticking it to big tech is something else entirely.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 19:33

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# ? Jun 1, 2024 12:39

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

A federal judge has reversed the previous order allowing Alexander Smirnov to remain free while awaiting trial and is now requiring him to be detained until criminal proceedings finish after his attorneys were suspected of petitioning for his release to help him flee the country (allegedly to Russia).

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1762174865744822342

quote:

Ex-FBI informant charged with lying about Bidens to remain jailed while he awaits trial, judge rules

LOS ANGELES (AP) � A former FBI informant charged with fabricating a multimillion-dollar bribery scheme involving President Joe Biden�s family must remain behind bars while he awaits trial, a judge ruled Monday, reversing an earlier order releasing the man.

U.S. District Judge Otis Wright II in Los Angeles ordered Alexander Smirnov�s detention after prosecutors raised concerns that the man who claims to have ties to Russian intelligence could flee the country. Wright said he did not believe there are release conditions he could set that would guarantee Smirnov would not escape.

�There is nothing garden variety about this case,� Wright said before announcing his decision. �I have not changed my mind. This man will be remanded pending trial.�

Smirnov pleaded not guilty to the charges accusing him of falsely telling his FBI handler that executives from the Ukrainian energy company Burisma had paid President Biden and Hunter Biden $5 million each around 2015. The claim became central to the Republican impeachment inquiry of President Biden in Congress.

A different judge had released Smirnov from jail on electronic GPS monitoring after his Feb. 14 arrest, but Wright ordered him to be taken back into custody last week after prosecutors asked to reconsider Smirnov�s detention. Wright said in a written order unsealed Friday that Smirnov�s lawyers� efforts to free him were �likely to facilitate his absconding from the United States.�

In urging the judge to keep him in jail, prosecutors revealed Smirnov has reported to the FBI having extensive contact with officials associated with Russian intelligence, and claimed that such officials were involved in passing a story to him about Hunter Biden. Prosecutors said Smirnov had been planning to travel overseas to multiple countries days after his Feb. 14 arrest where he said he was meeting with foreign intelligence contacts.

Prosecutor Leo Wise said Smirnov could not be trusted to tell the truth to those monitoring his whereabouts if released from jail, noting that Smirnov was pushing a new false story about Hunter Biden during a meeting with investigators as recently as September. Prosecutors have said in court papers that Smirnov is �actively peddling new lies that could impact U.S. elections.�

Smirnov, who holds dual Israeli-U.S. citizenship, is charged by the same Justice Department special counsel who has separately filed gun and tax charges against Hunter Biden.

Smirnov was escorted into the courtroom wearing an off-white jail jumpsuit and black rimmed eyeglasses and was seated at the table with his attorneys. Defense attorneys said in pushing for his release that he has no criminal history and has strong ties to the United States, including a longtime significant other who lives in Las Vegas.

Defense attorney David Chesnoff said Smirnov was being held largely in isolation with access to a phone only once or twice a week, and that he was needed to assist in his own defense.

�He intends to vigorously defend these allegations, having never been in trouble his entire life,� Chesnoff said.

In his ruling last week releasing Smirnov on GPS monitoring, U.S. Magistrate Judge Daniel Albregts in Las Vegas said he was concerned about his access to what prosecutors estimate is $6 million in funds, but noted that federal guidelines required him to fashion �the least restrictive conditions� ahead of his trial.

Smirnov was re-arrested on Thursday morning while meeting with his lawyers at their offices in downtown Las Vegas.

In an emergency petition with the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, Smirnov�s lawyers said Wright did not have the authority to order Smirnov to be taken back into custody. The defense also criticized what it described as �biased and prejudicial statements� from Wright insinuating that Smirnov�s lawyers were acting improperly by advocating for his release.

The appeals court on Sunday evening denied Smirnov�s emergency petition, refusing to block Monday�s hearing or assign the case to a different judge.

Smirnov had been an informant for more than a decade when he made the explosive allegations about the Bidens in June 2020, after �expressing bias� about Joe Biden as a presidential candidate, prosecutors said. Smirnov had only routine business dealings with Burisma starting in 2017, according to court documents. No evidence has emerged that Joe Biden acted corruptly or accepted bribes in his current role or previous office as vice president.

While his identity wasn�t publicly known before the indictment, Smirnov�s claims have played a major part in the Republican effort in Congress to investigate the president and his family, and helped spark what is now a House impeachment inquiry into Biden. Republicans pursuing investigations of the Bidens demanded the FBI release the unredacted form documenting the unverified allegations, though they acknowledged they couldn�t confirm if they were true.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 19:36

Cimber: Feb 3, 2014

FMguru posted:

They don't just want a horserace, they want a Trump victory. Crazy Donny's Three Ring Circus Of Chaos was a money-geyser for news ratings and viewership and subscriptions and engagement metrics and advertising revenue (most political and news websites have seen traffic drops of 30-50% between the Trump and Biden eras), and they want that back. Everyone living in existential dread and constantly doom-reloading news sites and twitter was really good for business!

Imagine the ratings CNN will get when they are livestreaming the nuclear warhead incoming track to the US east coast! That'll make a big splash for that quarter!

# ? Feb 26, 2024 19:38

tecnocrat: Oct 5, 2003; Struggling to keep his sanity.

Cimber posted:

Imagine the ratings CNN will get when they are livestreaming the nuclear warhead incoming track to the US east coast! That'll make a big splash for that quarter!

But then shareholders will demand growth, so in Q3, there has to be two or three warheads inbound.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 19:44

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

A federal judge has reversed the previous order allowing Alexander Smirnov to remain free while awaiting trial and is now requiring him to be detained until criminal proceedings finish after his attorneys were suspected of petitioning for his release to help him flee the country (allegedly to Russia).

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1762174865744822342

do lawyers have a professional obligation to help their clients leave a jurisdiction if that is an option?

# ? Feb 26, 2024 19:44

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

Cimber posted:

Imagine the ratings CNN will get when they are livestreaming the nuclear warhead incoming track to the US east coast! That'll make a big splash for that quarter!

we already know what their coverage will look like

https://www.theguardian.com/media/video/2015/jan/06/cnn-end-of-the-world-doomsday-video

# ? Feb 26, 2024 19:45

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

do lawyers have a professional obligation to help their clients leave a jurisdiction if that is an option?

No. That is called aiding a fugitive in absconding from justice and is generally pretty frowned upon since it is a crime.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 19:49

C. Everett Koop: Aug 18, 2008

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

No. That is called aiding a fugitive in absconding from justice and is generally pretty frowned upon since it is a crime.

Generally requires the lawyer to flee themselves, as seen in the case of Goodman, Saul.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 19:51

Morrow: Oct 31, 2010

Attorney-Client privilege doesn't cover helping the client commit additional crimes, which is why many of Trump's good lawyers tend to quit after a little bit.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 20:08

haveblue: Aug 15, 2005; Toilet Rascal

Morrow posted:

Attorney-Client privilege doesn't cover helping the client commit additional crimes, which is why many of Trump's good lawyers tend to quit after a little bit.

I thought it was half that and half the client refusing to even try to act like a defendant

# ? Feb 26, 2024 20:09

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

The FTC makes it official: It is suing to stop the Albertson's and Kroger merger.

The FTC argues that the merger will have an anti-competitive impact and could potentially raise prices, may result in lower quality products for consumers, and may lead to less investment in the Albertson's stores.

Kroger has disputed the argument that the merger would result in anti-competitive or anti-consumer practices. In response to the suit, Kroger has also promised that it will invest $500 million into lowering prices immediately after the merger concludes and invest $1.3 billion into improving Albertson's stores to prove to the court that it is taking the FTC's claims seriously and actively working to address them if the merger is approved.

The merger would be the largest grocery merger in U.S. history and the Albertson's stores are unionized. Kroger has promised to honor any existing collective bargaining agreements, but the FTC says that the lack of competition in some areas will make it harder to leverage those collective bargaining agreements and weaken the ability of the workers to increase their wages as quickly. Several local Albertson's employee unions endorsed the merger, but the parent organizations of the United Food and Commercial Workers union (which represents all the workers at Albertson's stores) voted to oppose the merger.

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1762180355522478099

quote:

FTC sues to block Kroger-Albertsons merger, saying it could push grocery prices higher

The Federal Trade Commission on Monday sued to block a proposed merger between grocery giants Kroger and Albertsons, saying the $24.6 billion deal could result in higher prices for millions of American consumers.

The FTC filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Oregon, alleging that the deal is anticompetitive and could harm shoppers by boosting prices for groceries and other essential household items. The merger could also result in lower quality products and services, as well as limit shoppers' options for where to buy groceries, the agency alleged.

The FTC was joined in the suit by eight state attorneys general and the District of Columbia.

Kroger and Albertsons, two of the nation's largest grocers, agreed to merge in October 2022. But grocery costs have soared since the pandemic, pushing Americans to spend more of their income on food than they have in 30 years and prompting some critics to point to corporate "greedflation" as a cause.

Given high food-price inflation, the merger was bound to get tough regulatory scrutiny.

"This supermarket mega merger comes as American consumers have seen the cost of groceries rise steadily over the past few years," said Henry Liu, Director of the FTC's Bureau of Competition, in a statement.

He added, "Kroger's acquisition of Albertsons would lead to additional grocery price hikes for everyday goods, further exacerbating the financial strain consumers across the country face today."

U.S. prices for food eaten at home typically rise 2.5% per year, but in 2022 they rose 11.4%, and in 2023 they rose another 5%, according to government data. Inflation is cooling, but gradually.

Bigger rivals

The companies said a merger would help them better compete with Walmart, Amazon, Costco and other large rivals. Together, Kroger and Albertsons would control around 13% of the U.S. grocery market; Walmart controls 22%, according to J.P. Morgan analyst Ken Goldman.

Kroger, based in Cincinnati, Ohio, operates 2,750 stores in 35 states and the District of Columbia, including brands like Ralphs, Smith's and Harris Teeter. Albertsons, based in Boise, Idaho, operates 2,273 stores in 34 states, including brands like Safeway, Jewel Osco and Shaw's. Together the companies employ around 700,000 people.

The FTC, which said the proposed deal would be the largest grocery merger in U.S. history, said it would also erase competition for workers, threatening their ability to win higher wages, better benefits and improved working conditions.

The Biden administration has also shown a willingness to challenge big mergers in court. Last month, the Justice Department sued to block a proposed merger between JetBlue Airways and Spirit Airlines.

The action by the FTC and the states follows lawsuits filed earlier this year in Colorado and Washington to block the merger. The states that joined the FTC lawsuit Monday are Arizona, California, Illinois, Maryland, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon and Wyoming.

Kroger's pledge to lower prices

Kroger has promised to invest $500 million to lower prices as soon as the deal closes. It said it also invested in price reductions when it merged with Harris Teeter in 2014 and Roundy's in 2016.

Kroger also promised to invest $1.3 billion in store improvements at Albertsons as part of the deal.

Last year, C&S Wholesale Grocers agreed to purchase 413 stores and eight distribution centers that Kroger and Albertsons agreed to divest in markets where the two companies' stores overlapped. C&S said it would honor all collective bargaining agreements with workers.

Still, the United Food and Commercial Workers union, which represents 835,000 grocery workers in the U.S. and Canada, voted last year to oppose the merger, saying Kroger and Albertsons had failed to be transparent about the potential impact it would have on workers.

The union was also critical of a $4 billion payout to Albertsons shareholders that was announced as part of the merger deal. Several states, including Washington and California, tried unsuccessfully to block the payment in court, saying it would weaken Albertsons financially.

Kroger and Albertsons had hoped to close the deal early this year. But the two companies announced in January that it was more likely to close in the first half of Kroger's fiscal year. Kroger's fiscal second quarter ends August 17.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:28 on Feb 26, 2024

# ? Feb 26, 2024 20:23

GlyphGryph: Jun 23, 2013; Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

It's honestly great to see the FTC caring about more than just consumer prices and not relying on companies pinky promising to lower prices.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 20:25

Main Paineframe: Oct 27, 2010

Majorian posted:

You are looking at this from a very "top-down" perspective. In reality, the peasants and workers who marched for bread and land in the streets of Paris, St. Petersburg, or Shanghai were more concerned with getting their basic needs for survival met, than with increasing their group's political power.

That may have been what motivated the elites who rode the waves of public resentment against their monarchs, but the public resentment was fueled by impossibly high grain prices, regressive taxes, extremely low pay, unpopular wars that disproportionately affected the poor, etc. These are all material conditions. Had the peasants and workers been fed and paid they most likely would not have risen up against Louis XVI or Nicholas II. Calling these material concerns "side issues" is completely ahistorical.

Public resentment in the 1911 revolution was partially fueled by the government's complete inability to deal with crises like the 1906 famine, which killed up to 25 million. That is very much a material condition.

The workers (not peasants) who marched for bread and land believed that increasing their group's political power (or, more accurately, reducing the overwhelmingly dominant political power of the elite classes) was the only way to make sure that all of their needs and desires - basic or not - could be met. This is really important to note, because France and Russia had had plenty of famines, economic problems, and peasant revolts before. The core factors that caused the dissatisfaction to erupt into full-scale revolution, rather than just another series of bread riots, were the obsolescence of the feudal system itself and the agitation of intellectuals inspired by Enlightenment values. That was what had changed to make revolution possible where it hadn't been before, politicizing the poorest classes and making them believe that it was even possible to have something better than the existing system.

For example, what sparked the very beginning of the French Revolutionary period wasn't "regressive taxes" or "unpopular wars that disproportionately affected the poor". it was "the king calling in the Estates General because of the nobility's refusal to cooperate, and the commoner estate demanding equal political power as the price for their cooperation with the king's requests". When the nobility reacted sharply and the king was unwilling to concede to the commoners, the bourgeois of Paris rioted and stormed the Bastille. Meanwhile, rumors spread throughout the countryside that the nobles were deliberately causing famines to punish the common folk, leading to rural peasant revolts against feudal privileges and the aristocracy.

That said, the poor and starving workers of Paris certainly played an important role later in the Revolutionary period, as their support became critically important in the inter-factional feuding of the successful revolutionaries. As the various revolutionary factions failed to effectively address material conditions and the French people continued to suffer famine, the urban working class gravitated to the more radical factions, providing a strong militant pressure that led them to become the backbone of Robespierre's faction and a strong influence on the Reign of Terror.

Why weren't the peasants marching for bread? By definition, peasants were farmers, and thus the primary source of food for the entire country. Even when famine hit, they could usually at least scrape by to some extent by reverting to simple subsistence farming and evading taxes. On the other hand, the urban workers who relied entirely on the peasants' surpluses, would be left to starve if the peasants didn't have any surpluses to sell to them. There might be some friction between peasant farmers and aristocratic landlords, who'd typically insist on getting their portion of the harvest regardless of crop failures, but the urbanites were by far the worst hit.

As for China, the 1911 revolution was openly, blatantly nationalist, led by groups like the Revive China Society who sought to put an end to what later Chinese nationalists called the "Century of Humiliation" at the hands of Western powers. Particularly influential was the Western intervention in the Boxer Rebellion just a decade earlier, which was also an openly anti-foreigner rebellion which sought to drive Western influence out of China and put an end to the concessions and privileges that were seen by many to be a prelude to outright colonization. The Boxers' slogan was "Support the Qing government and exterminate the foreigners", and the Qing capitulation to the resulting foreign invasion as well as the failure of various reform attempts caused the Qing government to be seen as incapable of resisting Western incursions and demands. While any natural disasters at the time no doubt contributed somewhat to the unrest, every account I've ever seen flags both the 1900 rebellion and the 1911 revolution as fundamentally anti-imperialist and only briefly - if at all - mentions things like flooding. However, when governance didn't quickly stabilize afterward, the worsening material conditions during the chaos of the warlord era played a significant role in the eventual Chinese Civil War, as Mao's ability to recognize peasant dissatisfaction and appeal to them was a significant factor in his rise.

Kanos posted:

I don't think acknowledging that economic framing is an integral part of fascist movements because it's effective for certain purposes is the same thing as believing said framing.

Economic framing allows them to obfuscate their true intentions and present them as legitimate to outsiders because being out and proud about their true intentions makes the initial hurdle of getting a hearing much higher. If economic arguments had no purpose in fascist rhetoric, they wouldn't bother to make them. Trump wouldn't waste time blathering about reopening steel mills and coal mines and doing trade wars with China and talking about how he's an expert businessman who'll fix America's broken economy.

I'm essentially saying that economic concerns are an effective tool for fascists like dogwhistling is an effective tool for racists. Those who are already part of the movement understand what the movement is actually about, and those outside of the movement can credulously buy the bullshit at face value.

The thing about this is that the American fascists aren't really doing any economic framing. Listen to the fascists speak and you'll barely hear any mention at all of economics; most of them are out there ranting and raving about destroying the wokes. Even Trump, who used to at least pay some lip service to trade policies for American workers, is out there saying he's going to make the US a Christian nationalist state now.

About the only people really trying to frame the fascists as motivated by economic concerns are centrist reporters who are desperate to find a framing for them that isn't just "they're white supremacists". The MAGAs themselves are talking exclusively about social and cultural poo poo. Occasionally they'll say that the economy is bad under Biden, but they're not making it a core issue, they're just adding it to their list of "Biden Bad" talking points.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 20:29

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

A federal judge has reversed the previous order allowing Alexander Smirnov to remain free while awaiting trial and is now requiring him to be detained until criminal proceedings finish after his attorneys were suspected of petitioning for his release to help him flee the country (allegedly to Russia).

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1762174865744822342

Has Israel responded to the detention of their citizen?

# ? Feb 26, 2024 20:38

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

mawarannahr posted:

Has Israel responded to the detention of their citizen?

Doesn't look like it. He hasn't lived in Israel for a while according to the NYT and is a resident of Los Angeles. I don't see any comment or statement from Israel about him in any of the articles or a casual google search.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 20:43

Scags McDouglas: Sep 9, 2012

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

The FTC makes it official: It is suing to stop the Albertson's and Kroger merger.

I know nobody gives a poo poo about my anecdotal derail, but Kroger delivery owns bones. They don't even have stores in FL and it beats the pants off of nearby Publix / Whole Foods / Trader Joes etc.

Anything not to upset the apple cart is fine by this man.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 20:49

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Scags McDouglas posted:

I know nobody gives a poo poo about my anecdotal derail, but Kroger delivery owns bones. They don't even have stores in FL and it beats the pants off of nearby Publix / Whole Foods / Trader Joes etc.

Anything not to upset the apple cart is fine by this man.

I don't think the merger would impact that one way or another, but also most grocery stores have been doing delivery since Covid.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 21:05

haveblue: Aug 15, 2005; Toilet Rascal

And even if the store doesn't have a branded in-house delivery services, gig apps are more than happy to have someone go shop for you

# ? Feb 26, 2024 21:06

Scags McDouglas: Sep 9, 2012

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

I don't think the merger would impact that one way or another, but also most grocery stores have been doing delivery since Covid.

Sorry I meant that prices could go up, so I'm glad it's not happening. Kroger's got me by the balls now that I don't have to grocery shop anymore.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 21:17

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

GlyphGryph posted:

It's honestly great to see the FTC caring about more than just consumer prices and not relying on companies pinky promising to lower prices.

They've been putting in a ton of work in a whole range of areas (given the limitations they're working under). They recently carried out an undercover phone operation to enforce the "funeral rule", which basically requires funeral homes to be honest with prices. The industry in this area is, historically, run quite a bit like used car dealerships. They hit 39 with warning letters in just the first sweep.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 21:23

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

NY Dems are going for a gerrymander and rejecting the bipartisan redistricting commission maps.

It's not clear how far they plan to go in their gerrymander. Any map will likely be challenged and going too far could cause it to be rejected by the court under the state's competitive district constitutional amendment.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1762176021380338169

quote:

ALBANY, New York � Democratic state lawmakers in New York are expected to reject a House map proposed by a bipartisan commission and back district lines they are drawing themselves, three people familiar with the discussions said Monday.

The Democratic-drawn map under consideration is not expected to be dramatically different from ones released by the commission two weeks ago, according to the officials who were granted anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions. But the Legislature�s likely decision to embrace its own map could fuel a Republican-backed legal challenge to the new district lines.

The drama over redistricting in New York is heightened by the stakes for both parties. New York is home to a half dozen swing seats that could determine control of the narrowly divided House next year.

Legislators are considering a new map that would make changes to House lines on Long Island and the Hudson Valley. New York CIty-based House seats would not change significantly.

Drawing new House lines was triggered last year when the state�s top court determined the current map was only meant to be in place for a two-year election cycle.

Republicans, who made gains in battleground House districts in the New York City suburbs in 2022, have been generally supportive of the map proposed by the state�s Independent Redistricting Commission, a panel of Republicans and Democrats appointed by state lawmakers.

The commission�s proposed House map made relatively small changes. But Democrats, who are pressing to gain control of the House, have panned the commission�s proposal.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries� office blasted the commission�s work and encouraged state lawmakers to scrutinize the boundaries.

Privately, Democrats in the Legislature have been split over how to proceed. Some lawmakers have acknowledged the impact of approving the map with some telling their colleagues �democracy is on the line� according to one person in the negotiations.

Former Rep. John Faso, who has spearheaded the GOP�s legal efforts on redistricting in recent years, said in an interview Monday he doesn�t want to �speculate on anything until I was able to see an entire map.�

But he said: �Based on their track record, I don�t have a whole lot of confidence in what they would be doing. But hope springs eternal.�

The commission�s plan would have provided a boost to Democrats in the seat held by Republican Brandon Williams. Both Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan and Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro would have also had modest gains to their reelection odds.

The current thinking is that lawmakers will stick to the confines of 2012 legislation that says districts they draw can�t vary by more than 2 percent from the ones in the commission�s plans. So at least 761,000 people in a 777,000-person district as drawn by the commission would need to be the same in the amended map passed by the Legislature.

That means there can�t be many dramatic overhauls from the maps drawn by the commission � but there will still be some changes.

State lawmakers are working on a tight timeline.

The Legislature could vote to reject the commission-drawn map as soon as Monday. The Democratic-controlled Legislature would then introduce their own House map, which could be approved this week.

Gov. Kathy Hochul has publicly insisted she is not involved in the internal redistricting discussions and said last week she would not put her �thumb on the scale� to influence the outcome.

Members are also likely to tweak the rules for petitioning for ballot access this year � congressional hopefuls are due to start collecting signatures on Tuesday.

The exact changes are still �fluid,� one lawmaker said.

The question of ballot access will be discussed in both houses� closed-door Democratic conference meetings, which started a little after noon on Monday.

Another topic that will be discussed is a bill to limit where Republican court cases can be brought.

A bill from Sen. Zellnor Myrie and Assemblymember William Magnarelli that had begun to move earlier this session would have said that challenges can only be brought in Albany County � a response to the GOP bringing their 2022 suit in Steuben County.

But lawmakers, particularly in the Assembly, never fully bought into a proposal that narrow.

Myrie and Magnarelli amended their bill on Friday to say that redistricting challenges can be brought in only Albany, Manhattan, Westchester or Erie counties. That updated measure could receive a vote on Monday.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 21:46

Majorian: Jul 1, 2009

Main Paineframe posted:

The workers (not peasants) who marched for bread and land believed that increasing their group's political power (or, more accurately, reducing the overwhelmingly dominant political power of the elite classes) was the only way to make sure that all of their needs and desires - basic or not - could be met. This is really important to note, because France and Russia had had plenty of famines, economic problems, and peasant revolts before. The core factors that caused the dissatisfaction to erupt into full-scale revolution, rather than just another series of bread riots, were the obsolescence of the feudal system itself and the agitation of intellectuals inspired by Enlightenment values. That was what had changed to make revolution possible where it hadn't been before, politicizing the poorest classes and making them believe that it was even possible to have something better than the existing system.

All true, but you seem to be missing the point of my posts on this topic, ie: rebutting the sweeping and unsubstantiated claim that most people throughout history have not factored their material conditions into their political behavior. Do you agree with that argument, or do you agree with my argument there are several historical examples to the contrary?

# ? Feb 26, 2024 22:12

Dull Fork: Mar 22, 2009

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

NY Dems are going for a gerrymander and rejecting the bipartisan redistricting commission maps.

It's not clear how far they plan to go in their gerrymander. Any map will likely be challenged and going too far could cause it to be rejected by the court under the state's competitive district constitutional amendment.

Good! More dem legislatures need to lock in their seats and keep their state governments not conservative. To not do so, while republicans do the same is to commit your side to (honorably) losing.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 22:14

Kchama: Jul 25, 2007

Majorian posted:

All true, but you seem to be missing the point of my posts on this topic, ie: rebutting the sweeping and unsubstantiated claim that most people throughout history have not factored their material conditions into their political behavior. Do you agree with that argument, or do you agree with my argument there are several historical examples to the contrary?

Considering the rest of that post that you did not quote was disagreeing with your argument and laying out why, I would wager that they do not agree.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 22:15

Majorian: Jul 1, 2009

Kchama posted:

Considering the rest of that post that you did not quote was disagreeing with your argument and laying out why, I would wager that they do not agree.

I read that post as saying that material conditions weren't the only factors at play in how non-wealthy elites behaved during these historical events (which I obviously agree with; I never claimed otherwise); if that's not what MP intended to say, and intended to argue that material conditions were not factors at all, then I misread that post.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 22:26

socialsecurity: Aug 30, 2003

Marking all the Trump voters as poor people is a very important step to blaming "the libs" for Trump and everything the Republicans have done and ever will do. Doesn't matter how many times it's shown they aren't really the poor people and most poor/minority people vote Democrat.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 22:34

Mooseontheloose: May 13, 2003

socialsecurity posted:

Marking all the Trump voters as poor people is a very important step to blaming "the libs" for Trump and everything the Republicans have done and ever will do. Doesn't matter how many times it's shown they aren't really the poor people and most poor/minority people vote Democrat.

It is wealthy and uneducated that really tipped to Trump.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 22:37

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Sooo many north Texas realtors were at Jan 6.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 22:46

Push El Burrito: May 9, 2006; Soiled Meat

Car dealership owners love Trump despite making all of their money because of government regulations. poo poo rules.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 22:53

Scags McDouglas: Sep 9, 2012

zoux posted:

Sooo many north Texas realtors were at Jan 6.

It must have been a new renaissance for the tiny minority of normal ones that stayed home and then ate the available market. I'm thinking Bubba Gump shrimp co after the storm.

# ? Feb 26, 2024 23:01

VikingofRock: Aug 24, 2008

zoux posted:

Sooo many north Texas realtors were at Jan 6.

Realty is a racket so this checks out

# ? Feb 26, 2024 23:06

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Biden announced that the U.S. has been secretly negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza and expects to announce a ceasefire agreement within a week.

The deal includes the release of 40 of the remaining Israeli hostages and dozens of Palestinians convicted of terrorism in Israel.

The initial ceasefire would last 6 weeks and include a negotiation for a permanent cessation of hostilities.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1762249127469998113

quote:

Biden Says He Expects Gaza Cease-Fire Within a Week

President Biden said on Monday that he believed negotiators were nearing an agreement that would halt Israel�s military operations in Gaza within a week in exchange for the release of at least some of the more than 100 hostages being held by Hamas.

Speaking with reporters during a stop in New York, Mr. Biden offered the most hopeful assessment of the hostage talks by any major figure in many days, suggesting that the war might be close to reaching a major turning point.

�I hope by the end of the weekend,� he said when asked by reporters when he expected a cease-fire to begin. �My national security adviser tells me that we�re close. We�re close. We�re not done yet. My hope is by next Monday, we�ll have a cease-fire.�

The president�s comments, delivered spontaneously in response to questions during a visit to an ice cream shop after taping a segment on Seth Meyers�s late-night talk show, came amid an active period of talks in the region. Israel�s war cabinet over the weekend approved the broad terms of a deal that would involve a six-week truce for the release of about 40 hostages, and an Israeli delegation planned to meet in Qatar with intermediaries from the United States, Egypt and Qatar.

In a major shift, Israeli negotiators have signaled that Israel could release a group of high-profile Palestinian prisoners serving lengthy jail terms in exchange for the freedom of some of the Israeli hostages still being held in Gaza, officials say.

The change in Israeli negotiating strategy, which has not been announced publicly, is significant because it could help persuade Hamas to release Israeli soldiers captured in October and agree to a deal that would temporarily pause the fighting in the Gaza Strip.

International efforts to reach a truce had stalled over Israel�s refusal to release Palestinians convicted of murder and to commit to a permanent cease-fire, two of the measures that Hamas is holding out for.

Now, Israeli negotiators have privately agreed to a U.S. proposal that would see five female Israeli soldiers released for 15 Palestinians convicted of major terrorism charges, according to two officials with knowledge of ongoing mediation efforts. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions, which came during a meeting with officials from Egypt, Qatar and the United States in Paris last week.

The idea is seen as the basis for negotiations with Hamas, which has not responded to the proposal. The Israeli government had previously avoided such a concession partly because the release of Palestinians convicted of major acts of terrorism, even in exchange for Israeli hostages, would attract significant domestic criticism.

Asked about the negotiators� position, the office of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, declined to comment.

Other elements of a possible deal � including the length of a cease-fire and Hamas�s demand for a complete withdrawal of Israeli military forces from Gaza � are still under discussion.

Still, the idea could add momentum to the talks, as officials race to complete a deal before the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan in about two weeks. An Israeli delegation was expected to arrive in Qatar as soon as Monday to continue negotiations with international mediators. According to one of the officials, Israeli intelligence officers believe that Hamas�s leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, has become more amenable in recent weeks to a deal that, in theory, would allow for only a temporary truce � hoping that it would become permanent once in place.

The idea is part of a wider U.S. proposal that would allow for the release of 40 of the roughly 100 hostages who were captured in the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attacks and believed still to be alive in Gaza. They include five female Israeli soldiers and civilians, including sick, wounded and older people. It does not include male Israeli soldiers, whose release will be the subject of a separate negotiation, one of the officials said.

Seven of the 35 civilian prisoners set to be released are women that Israel said should have been released during the last cease-fire and prisoner swap in November. For the release of those seven women, Israel has proposed releasing 21 Palestinian detainees, the same three-to-one ratio observed during the earlier exchange.

It would release more Palestinians for each of the remaining hostages, including six for every civilian man age 50 and older and 12 for every sick or wounded man. For each of the five female Israeli soldiers in captivity, Israel would release three �heavy� prisoners � those believed responsible for major attacks � and 15 others.

Israel has often agreed to lopsided prisoner exchanges in conflicts with Hamas. In 2011, it released more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners to secure the freedom of one captured soldier, Gilad Shalit.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/02/26/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 01:52 on Feb 27, 2024

# ? Feb 27, 2024 01:50

Raenir Salazar: Nov 5, 2010; College Slice

Ceasefire Joe has a pretty good ring to it.

# ? Feb 27, 2024 01:52

The Glumslinger: Sep 24, 2008; Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?; Hair Elf

Raenir Salazar posted:

Ceasefire Joe has a pretty good ring to it.

Lets actually see if it happens before taking a victory lap

# ? Feb 27, 2024 02:04

TGLT: Aug 14, 2009

poo poo let's actually see at least six weeks pass without Israel breaking the ceasefire before we take a victory lap.

and y'know, ignore how the US blocked any UN call for a ceasefire before now

# ? Feb 27, 2024 02:05

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Biden announced that the U.S. has been secretly negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza and expects to announce a ceasefire agreement within a week.

The deal includes the release of 40 of the remaining Israeli hostages and dozens of Palestinians convicted of terrorism in Israel.

The initial ceasefire would last 6 weeks and include a negotiation for a permanent cessation of hostilities.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1762249127469998113

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/02/26/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news

i can't articulate why, but this being mentioned as an aside while grabbing ice cream with a b tier late night talk show host doesn't seem appropriate

# ? Feb 27, 2024 02:08

Rand Brittain: Mar 25, 2013; "Go on until you're stopped."

TGLT posted:

and y'know, ignore how the US blocked any UN call for a ceasefire before now

If they were negotiating a private ceasefire agreement, that would probably be the reason why.

It's not necessarily a good reason, depending on what the private agreement actually is, but it does indicate that there was some coherent intention behind that.

# ? Feb 27, 2024 02:08

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Rand Brittain posted:

If they were negotiating a private ceasefire agreement, that would probably be the reason why.

It's not necessarily a good reason, depending on what the private agreement actually is, but it does indicate that there was some coherent intention behind that.

It's not because they were negotiating a private ceasefire. The stated reason was because the resolution did not call for the release of all hostages, but this alleged ceasefire deal doesn't result in all the hostages being released either.

# ? Feb 27, 2024 02:11

Kalit: Nov 6, 2006; The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Biden announced that the U.S. has been secretly negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza and expects to announce a ceasefire agreement within a week.

The deal includes the release of 40 of the remaining Israeli hostages and dozens of Palestinians convicted of terrorism in Israel.

The initial ceasefire would last 6 weeks and include a negotiation for a permanent cessation of hostilities.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1762249127469998113

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/02/26/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news

Once again, Biden showing that things can be accomplished behind the scenes. So much for Biden's "hardline Zionist" stance that I had to argue against earlier ITT

# ? Feb 27, 2024 02:14

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# ? Jun 1, 2024 12:39

TGLT: Aug 14, 2009

Kalit posted:

Once again, Biden showing that things can be accomplished behind the scenes. So much for Biden's "hardline Zionist" stance that I had to argue against earlier ITT

Nixon's Vietnam peace negotiations also showed what could be accomplished behind the scenes.

# ? Feb 27, 2024 02:16

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